Core Viewpoint - The price of silver futures in Shanghai surged, breaking the 10,000 yuan per kilogram mark, reaching a historical high since the contract's inception, driven by factors such as catch-up demand, supply-demand dynamics, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 1: Price Movement - On September 12, the Shanghai silver main contract price rose significantly, closing at 10,035 yuan per kilogram, with a gain of 2.36% [1] - The contract reached an intraday high above 10,000 yuan per kilogram, marking a record high for the contract [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Price - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to multiple factors: 1. Catch-up demand relative to gold, with many investors buying silver for arbitrage [1] 2. Clear industrial demand driven by the growth of solar panel production [1] 3. A decline in the credibility of the US dollar, prompting sovereign nations to seek new monetary anchors, which supports the rise in gold prices and consequently silver [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Impact - Expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September are seen as supportive for precious metal prices, with a weaker dollar likely to boost gold and silver prices [2] - The differentiation between industrial metals and precious metals is noted, where precious metals like gold and silver may benefit from being perceived as safe-haven assets, while industrial metals could face adverse effects [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental drive is needed to choose a direction. The bond market shows a differentiated trend with the long - end being weak and the short - end being strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation. Silver is in the $40 - 42 range for short - term trading [2]. - The shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as falling apparent demand and coking coal resumption. Iron ore prices are strong, while coking coal and coke prices are weak [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up again. The prices of base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are affected by different factors [2]. - The oil market is worried about marginal supply increments, dragging oil prices down. The chemical products market has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends for different varieties [2]. - Special commodities like soda ash, glass, and rubber have different market performances and trading suggestions [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has a rising price due to increasing production cut expectations, and lithium carbonate maintains a tight balance [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: After a large increase, A - shares may enter a high - level shock. Sell near - month put options at support levels to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is at a critical point. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and focus on changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, buy cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money options. For silver, conduct short - term band trading in the $40 - 42 range and sell out - of - the - money options at high volatility [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are suppressed. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy iron ore 2601 contracts at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and consider an iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Sell coking coal 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170, and the iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy is favorable [2]. - **Coke**: Sell coke 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650, and the iron ore - coke long - short strategy is favorable [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. The main contract reference range is 79500 - 81500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Alloys**: Aluminum prices are affected by macro - factors and cost support, with different reference ranges for different contracts [2]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of interest rate cuts improves, boosting zinc prices. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals remain strong, and the tin price is in a high - level shock. The operating range is 285000 - 265000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about marginal supply increments drag oil prices down. Adopt a short - side strategy and pay attention to support levels [2]. - **Urea**: High short - term supply pressure drags down the price. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand expectations in September are different, and the prices are in a shock range. For PTA, consider a TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spread strategy [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and trading suggestions, such as short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester, ethylene glycol, etc. [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Different grains and oils are affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends and trading suggestions [2]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply prospects, and cotton has low old - crop inventories, with different trading suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: The livestock and poultry products market is affected by factors such as supply - demand contradictions and sales rhythms, with different price trends [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range shock. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: The market is affected by production lines and spot market sentiment. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment fades, and rubber prices are in a shock - down trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Due to increasing production cut expectations, the price is rising. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market maintains a tight balance. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and the main contract reference range is 70000 - 72000 yuan [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The short - term consumption side of the lithium carbonate market still has support, with the current consumption peak season and downstream rigid procurement needs. The market in September shows a situation where supply and demand increase simultaneously, but the demand growth rate is faster, and there may be a temporary supply shortage. The short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate, and may decline after the mine resumes production and consumption weakens [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 11, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 70,960 yuan/ton and closed at 71,000 yuan/ton, with a 1.25% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 426,041 lots, and the open interest was 323,456 lots (the previous day's open interest was 340,814 lots). The current basis is 2,130 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,391 lots, a change of 290 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 71,000 - 74,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 70,000 - 71,200 yuan/ton, also a change of - 600 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 800 US dollars/ton, a change of - 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream material factories' price - setting and trading enthusiasm are still relatively high. As it is the industry's peak demand season, downstream material factories have rigid procurement needs and strong procurement willingness at relatively low prices [1] - Lithium carbonate produced from spodumene accounts for over 60% of the market supply, while that from lithium mica has dropped to 15%. In September, the market shows a situation where supply and demand increase simultaneously, but the demand growth rate is faster, and a temporary supply shortage is expected [1] - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly output increased by 544 tons to 19,963 tons. The outputs from spodumene, mica, and salt lakes all increased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 1,580 tons to 138,512 tons. The downstream inventory continued to increase, while the inventory in the intermediate links and smelters decreased significantly, and the downstream restocking willingness is good [2] Strategy - The futures market fluctuates in the short term. With the weakening of mine - end disturbances, the peak consumption season provides some support. The short - term supply - demand pattern is good, and the inventory continues to decline, providing some support to the market. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the short term and may decline after the mine resumes production and consumption weakens [3] Trading Recommendations - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, and sell - hedging can be carried out on rallies [5] - Inter - period: None [5] - Cross - variety: None [5] - Spot - futures: None [5] - Options: None [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the mid - term and short - term structures of various energy and chemical products, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on the fundamental and technical analysis of each product. The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends for different products, and many products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and geopolitical events [1][2]. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ starts the second - stage 165 barrels/day复产 plan. In October, it will increase production by 137,000 barrels/day. The market has a large surplus expectation after the first - stage复产, and the second - stage复产 will add to the pressure with the demand shifting from peak to off - peak season. Geopolitical events and sanctions expectations bring short - term support, but the fundamental trend is downward [2]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. The intraday trend is a bit subtle, testing the short - term pressure of 489 (11 contract). It is recommended to observe for one more day. The hourly - level short positions can be held cautiously [2]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly start - up rate has a slight increase, but there are unplanned maintenance. The downstream profit is poor, the start - up rates of ABS and EPS decline, and the port inventory continues to accumulate, which is a short - term pressure point. After the autumn maintenance peak, there will be new device put - into - production pressure in September - October, and the supply - demand situation is weak. There is also the risk of inventory over - filling [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. After a sharp fall, it is in a normal repair period. It has reached above the short - term pressure of 7040 (10 contract). The remaining short positions can be held cautiously, with the final stop - profit at 7180 [5]. Rubber - Logic: Seasonal factors are strong, but there is no weather speculation on the supply side. Only short - term typhoons and rainy seasons make raw material prices strong. The import volume in August increases both year - on - year and month - on - month, with a continuous increase expectation. The start - up rate of semi - steel tires decreases significantly, while that of all - steel tires remains high. The current fundamentals are neutral [7]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation structure at the daily level, and the hourly - level upward structure is being tested. After an increase in positions and a fall below the support of 15880, the short - term upward trend is under threat. It is close to the lower limit of the August range. It is recommended to wait and see at the hourly level and look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute chart after a rebound fails to break through the pressure of 16000 [7]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand of styrene - butadiene rubber. The start - up rate and output of some devices decrease due to maintenance, and the inventory of downstream semi - steel tires also drops. The main contradiction lies in the cost of butadiene. With the arrival of a large number of ships, the port inventory has increased significantly, ending the previous tight situation. In the medium term, the supply pressure of butadiene will gradually appear, and the upstream crude oil will also face surplus pressure [10]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation/downward structure at the daily level, and short - term downward structure at the hourly level. Since August 22, the position has increased by 97%. After an increase in positions and a break - through today, it may end the oscillation and turn to a downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 11760. The 15 - minute short positions can be held at the hourly level, with the stop - profit at 11760 [13]. PX - Logic: The profit of PX is restored, and the start - up rate is increasing after the maintenance peak. The domestic PX load is 83%, and the Asian PX load is 75%. The demand - side device maintenance and复产 co - exist, but the overall start - up rate of PTA has declined, and the previous inventory reduction has slowed down. The short - term fundamentals have weakened, and more attention should be paid to the cost of crude oil [17]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. The intraday trend is oscillatory, and the small - cycle should pay attention to the pressure at 6770 on the 15 - minute chart. The remaining short positions can be held [17]. PTA - Logic: It lacks its own driving force, and attention should be paid to the cost collapse logic of crude oil [21]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 4700. The short positions can be held, with the stop - profit at 4700 [21]. PP - Logic: The supply - side start - up rate increases, and new devices will be put into production. The demand enters the peak season, and the supply - demand pressure is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the cost collapse logic [22]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory. The short - term pressure at the hourly level is 7090, which is relatively far. Attention can be paid to the 6990 pressure on the 15 - minute short - cycle. If it breaks through, partial stop - profit can be made [22]. Methanol - Logic: The domestic and overseas start - up rates are high, and the arrival pressure in September is large. The port inventory continues to accumulate, reaching a record high in the past 5 years. The downstream demand is weak, and the short - term pressure is great [24]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward/oscillation and short - term downward structures. After an increase in positions and a fall, the 15 - minute cycle turns down. Attention should be paid to whether the hourly - level downward slope returns. The short - term pressure is at 2435. The remaining short positions can be held cautiously, with the final stop - profit at 2435 [24]. PVC - Logic: After the previous maintenance, the start - up rate remains at a high level of 75%. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is strong, so the supply is difficult to reduce. The inventory continues to accumulate to the highest level in the same period of history. Before the real estate bottoms out, the demand is difficult to improve, and the fundamentals are bearish [27]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term upward structure at the daily level and short - term downward structure at the hourly level. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 4930. The short positions can be held [27]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The port inventory is at a low level in recent years, so the fundamentals are relatively strong compared with other energy and chemical products. But with the increase in domestic start - up rate, it is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation cycle. The short - term situation is strong, but the medium - term expectation is bearish [30]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation/downward and short - term downward structures. The intraday oscillation, but the closing price hits a new low, and the short - term decline may accelerate. The short - term pressure is at 4375. The short positions can be held, with the stop - loss at 4375 [30]. Plastic - Logic: The start - up rate of PE is stable, and the demand improvement in the peak season is slow. The fundamental driving force is general [32]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation/downward and short - term downward structures. The intraday trend is oscillatory. The short - term pressure at the hourly level is 7365, which is relatively far. Attention can be paid to the 7290 pressure on the 15 - minute small - cycle. The 15 - minute short positions can be held, with the stop - loss at 7290 [32]. Soda Ash - Logic: After the end of the anti - involution hype, the glass - soda ash with the greatest supply - demand pressure starts the spot - futures regression logic before delivery. The anti - involution has no real impact on the supply. The over - capacity trend continues, and the output has further increased after the price increase. The real estate demand is difficult to bottom out, and the supply - strong and demand - weak situation remains unchanged. The large inventory and high - output pressure continue to suppress the price [33]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level downward structure. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 1320. The short positions can be held [33]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Last week, the supply - side output and start - up rate decreased due to autumn maintenance and transportation restrictions during the military parade. After the parade on September 3, the supply - side speculation may end. The export demand is at a high level but the profit is declining, and the domestic non - aluminum demand is rising in the early peak season, while the alumina demand remains flat at a high level. The overall supply - demand is strong, but the supply pressure is greater. The inventory is at a record high in the past 5 years, and there is an over - supply situation after the start - up rate recovers [36]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level downward structure. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 2625. The short positions can be held, with the stop - profit at 2625 [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Inter - period: None [4] - Inter - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: None [4] Core View of the Report - The short - term fundamental supply - demand pattern is good. In September, there may be a slight inventory reduction. The sharp decline in the market on the day was mainly affected by the expected resumption of production of previously shut - down mines. The mid - term supply - demand shows an over - supply cycle, and the market may be weak and volatile after the mine resumes production and consumption support weakens [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 10, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 69,040 yuan/ton and closed at 70,720 yuan/ton, with a - 4.87% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 751,480 lots, and the open interest was 340,814 lots (351,340 lots the previous day). The current basis was 3,330 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,101 lots with no change from the previous day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 71,500 - 75,400 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,600 - 71,800 yuan/ton, both down 1,150 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 805 US dollars/ton, down 45 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - The downstream material factories' price - fixing enthusiasm increased significantly. In September, the market showed simultaneous growth in supply and demand, and the overall supply of lithium carbonate was still tight. The proportion of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene exceeded 60%, while that from lithium mica decreased to 15% [1] Strategy - The short - term supply - demand pattern is good. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene increases, and that from mica decreases in the short term. The consumption end is in the peak season with good downstream production schedules. In September, there may be a slight inventory reduction. The mid - term over - supply cycle remains unchanged, and the market may be weak and volatile later [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and the steel price is expected to continue the low - level volatile operation situation. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on rebar 2601 are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line [2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is shock - weak. The view reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic of a weakly stable supply - demand pattern and low - level volatile steel prices. The calculation method of price fluctuations and the definitions of shock - strong/weak are also provided [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar runs weakly and stably. Short - process steel mills have reduced production, and the weekly rebar output has decreased month - on - month, but the decline is not large and it is still at a relatively high level within the year. Coupled with high inventory, the supply pressure has not been relieved. Meanwhile, the rebar demand is weak, high - frequency indicators are running at a low level, and the downstream industries have not improved, with poor performance in the peak season, which continues to put pressure on steel prices. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the rebar fundamentals are weak, industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. With the relatively favorable peak - season expectation and cost increase, the steel price is expected to continue the low - level volatile operation, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by the Steel Union today [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda futures price may have limited downside space. The spot price may remain firm in the short - term due to low inventory pressure on caustic soda enterprises and expected supply decline. Attention should be paid to the alumina plant's purchasing rhythm and device fluctuations [2]. - The PVC futures price will continue to be weakly volatile. The supply - demand pressure increases, and the demand has not improved. Although in the traditional peak season, the demand remains sluggish. The cost side provides some support [2]. Methanol Industry - On the supply side, inland maintenance devices are expected to gradually resume in early September, and the import volume will still be large. On the demand side, traditional downstream sectors are still weak. The port has been significantly accumulating inventory, and the basis is weak. The key is to focus on the inventory digestion rhythm [5]. Urea Industry - The urea futures price is running weakly due to the short - term imbalance of domestic supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is abundant, while the demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation in factories [11]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight oil price continued to fluctuate widely. The current oil price is supported by geopolitical premiums, but the upside space is restricted by the loose fundamentals. It is recommended to mainly observe on the long - short side and wait for opportunities to expand the spread on the options side [44]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply is gradually increasing to a relatively high level, and the mid - term supply - demand is expected to be tight. The price has support at the low level, but the upside space of the rebound is limited. It is recommended to treat PX11 as a short - term shock between 6600 - 6900 [39]. - PTA: The supply - demand in September is expected to be tight, but the basis and processing fee repair drive are limited. It is recommended to treat TA as a short - term shock between 4600 - 4800 and mainly conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spreads [39]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. It is expected to slightly reduce inventory in September and enter the inventory accumulation channel in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the support of EG01 at around 4300 and the EG1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [39]. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is still weak, following the raw material fluctuations. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing fee on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1000 [39]. - Bottle chips: In September, the supply and demand may both decrease, and the inventory is expected to increase. PR follows the cost fluctuations, and the processing fee has limited upside space [39]. Polyolefin Industry - For PP, the loss of PDH is intensifying, and the basis has weakened rapidly. For PE, the current maintenance is still at a relatively high level, and the supply pressure is relatively limited in the short - term. The overall market will present a pattern of "decreasing supply and increasing demand" [49][51]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The supply in September is lower than expected, and the demand support is weakening. The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price is driven by the strong oil price. BZ2603 is expected to follow styrene and fluctuate strongly [57]. - Styrene: The short - term drive is weak, but the supply - demand is expected to improve in the future. The price is supported by the oil price, but the rebound space is limited by high inventory. EB10 can be treated with low - buying on a rolling basis, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7200 and the spread expansion between EB11 - BZ11 [57]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: The spot prices of caustic soda and PVC remained stable on September 10, while the futures prices showed different degrees of changes. For example, SH2509 of caustic soda increased by 7.0%, and V2509 of PVC increased by 0.1% [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate is expected to decline next week due to maintenance. The PVC supply has an upward expectation as some device maintenance is restored [2]. - **Demand**: The demand for caustic soda is expected to weaken, especially from the alumina industry. The PVC demand has not improved, and downstream product enterprises maintain a low operating rate [2]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories decreased, while the PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory increased slightly [2]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: On September 10, the methanol futures and spot prices showed different degrees of increase. For example, MA2601 increased by 0.38%, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 1.31% [4]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all increased. The port inventory increased by 8.59% [4]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operating rates increased, while some downstream operating rates decreased, such as the formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid operating rates [5]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: The urea futures price is running weakly. The spot prices in different regions showed little change on September 10 [11]. - **Supply**: The daily output of urea remains at a high level, and some maintenance devices are expected to resume production [11]. - **Demand**: The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is for rigid procurement, resulting in insufficient total demand [11]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory inventory increased, while the port inventory remained unchanged [11]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: On September 11, the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased slightly. The spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [44]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: According to EIA data, the U.S. crude oil production, refinery operating rate, and various inventory changes are shown in the report [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: On September 10, the prices of upstream crude oil, naphtha, and PX increased slightly, while the prices of some downstream polyester products decreased, such as the polyester bottle chip price [39]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products showed different degrees of changes. For example, the Asian PX operating rate increased by 0.9% [39]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory is at a low level, and the arrival volume in early September is moderately low [39]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: On September 10, the futures prices of LLDPE and PP showed small changes, and the spot prices remained stable [49]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased slightly, and the PP device operating rate increased. The downstream weighted operating rates of both increased slightly [49]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased, and the PP enterprise inventory decreased. The PP trader inventory increased [49]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices**: On September 10, the prices of upstream crude oil, naphtha, and pure benzene increased slightly, while the price of styrene remained stable [57]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of some pure benzene and styrene downstream products decreased, while the styrene operating rate increased [57]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased [57].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - **Polyester Industry**: The short - term supply - demand pattern of short - fiber is weak, with high supply and uncertain demand during the peak season. PTA's absolute price follows raw material fluctuations, and its basis and processing fee repair drivers are limited. The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. The price of PX is expected to be supported at low levels, but the rebound space is limited [2]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda Industry**: The caustic soda spot price may remain firm in the short term, while the decline space of the futures price is limited. The PVC market is under pressure, with supply increasing and demand remaining weak, and it is expected to continue weak and volatile [5]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: Geopolitical events increase the risk premium of oil prices, but the loose supply - demand pattern restricts the increase. It is recommended to mainly wait and see on the single - side, and look for opportunities to expand spreads on the option side [9]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry**: The supply - demand of pure benzene in September is expected to be loose, and its price is driven by oil prices. The short - term drive of styrene is weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in supply - demand in the future [14]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: The current core contradiction in the polyolefin market is not prominent. The market will present a pattern of "decreasing supply and increasing demand", with attention to the supply rhythm and seasonal demand [17]. - **Urea Industry**: The urea futures price is weak due to a loose supply - demand pattern and low market sentiment, with high supply and weak demand [21]. - **Methanol Industry**: The methanol supply is increasing, and the demand from traditional downstream is weak. The port is accumulating inventory, and attention should be paid to the inventory digestion rhythm [33]. Summary by Directory Polyester Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: On September 9, Brent crude oil (November) was $66.02/barrel, up 0.6%; CFR China PX was $836/ton, up 0.4% [2]. - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price was 6805 yuan/ton, down 0.3%; its cash flow was 144 yuan/ton, down 3.7% [2]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The comprehensive operating rate of polyester was 91.3%, up 1.0%; the operating rate of PTA was 70.4%, up 3.4% [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Product Prices**: On September 9, the market price of PVC in East China was 4650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2718.8 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry was 86.7%, up 1.5%; the total operating rate of PVC was 76.2%, up 3.9% [5]. - **Inventory**: On September 4, the inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories was 170,000 tons, down 7.8%; the total social inventory of PVC was 533,000 tons, up 2.1% [5]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 10, Brent crude oil was $66.70/barrel, up 0.47%; the spread between Brent M1 - M3 was $0.55/barrel, up 3.77% [9]. - **Driving Factors**: Geopolitical events such as the Israeli air - strike on Doha and Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy infrastructure support oil prices, while the loose supply - demand pattern restricts the increase [9]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: On September 9, CFR China pure benzene was $733/ton, down 0.1%; the price of pure benzene in East China was 5900 yuan/ton, down 0.2% [13]. - **Product Prices and Spreads**: The spot price of styrene in East China was 7110 yuan/ton, down 0.4%; the spread between EB - BZ spot was 1210 yuan/ton, down 1.6% [14]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rate of Asian pure benzene was 77.9%, unchanged; the operating rate of styrene was 79.7%, up 2.0% [14]. Polyolefin Industry - **Product Prices**: On September 9, the closing price of L2601 was 7229 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; the closing price of PP2601 was 6949 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of PE decreased last week, while that of PP increased. The operating rate of PP devices was 80.2%, up 2.6% [17]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 9, the price of the main urea contract was 2398 yuan/ton, down 0.42%; the spread between UR - MA main contracts was - 756 yuan/ton, down 2.38% [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea is relatively high, and demand from agriculture, industry, and exports is weak [21]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of urea was 1095,000 tons, up 0.85%; the port inventory was 620,900 tons, up 3.48% [21]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 9, the closing price of MA2601 was 2398 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spread between MA91 was - 151 yuan, up 9 yuan [33]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol was 341,083 tons, up 1 ton; the port inventory was 1428,000 tons, up 13 tons [33]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises was 74.21%, up 2%; the operating rate of downstream external - procurement MTO devices was 78.81%, up 0.2% [33].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that alumina futures are experiencing a strong oscillation, with the main contract reported at 3025.0 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.75% increase [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced a reduction in the delivery premium for alumina in Xinjiang from 380 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, effective from March 4, 2026 [2] - The national weekly operating rate for alumina has decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 81.55%, attributed to maintenance activities reducing the load of roasting furnaces [2] Group 2 - According to Wenguang Futures, ongoing disturbances in domestic and foreign ore supply are expected to support ore prices, while improved macro sentiment is likely to drive the non-ferrous sector to perform strongly [3] - The current average profit in the alumina industry remains acceptable, with operating capacity at a high level, while the demand side for electrolytic aluminum remains relatively stable [3] - The inventory of alumina warehouse receipts increased by approximately 1500 tons, indicating a weak market performance, but future policy expectations may provide some support on the cost side [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [4] - Options: Buy call options [4] Core View of the Report - The inventory continues to decrease, and the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate continues to improve. In September, the market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with demand growing faster, leading to a temporary supply shortage [1]. - The futures market rebounds due to news from the lithium ore approval end, and the spot supply - demand pattern remains good. Lithium carbonate is expected to be supported, but the market fluctuates greatly [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 4, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 was 71,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 73,420 yuan/ton, a 1.05% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 712,151 lots, and the open interest was 353,674 lots, compared with 346,048 lots the previous day. The basis was 2,000 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 34,948 lots, a change of 830 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,400 - 76,600 yuan/ton, a - 900 yuan/ton change from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 72,000 - 73,400 yuan/ton, also a - 900 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 850 US dollars/ton, with no change from the previous day [1]. - From August 1 - 31, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.952 million vehicles, a 3% year - on - year increase and a 7% month - on - month increase. The cumulative retail sales this year were 14.698 million vehicles, a 9% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 2.409 million vehicles, a 12% year - on - year increase and an 8% month - on - month increase. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 17.934 million vehicles, a 12% year - on - year increase [2]. - The weekly production increased by 389 tons to 19,419 tons, with a slight increase in production from lithium spodumene, mica, and salt lakes. The weekly inventory decreased by 1,044 tons to 140,092 tons. Downstream inventory continued to increase, intermediate inventory increased slightly, and smelter inventory decreased significantly [2]. Strategy - The futures market rebounded mainly due to news from the lithium ore approval end. The spot supply - demand pattern is good, and inventory continues to decrease. Lithium carbonate is expected to be supported, but the market fluctuates greatly, and participants need to manage risks [3].