1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the valuation of PE decreased slightly, the monomer rebounded slightly, and there were expectations of increased supply and decreased demand. The cost - side support for PE was average, and the market supply - demand pattern was not optimistic. Q4 might gradually enter a pattern of increased supply and decreased demand, putting pressure on prices [6]. - The raw material - end crude oil fluctuated weakly, and the Northeast Asian ethylene rebounded by $5. The weighted profits of oil - based, coal - based, ethylene, and ethane were compressed, but no supply elasticity was observed. The downstream demand from the agricultural film and packaging film industries provided some support, but considering the decline in agricultural film production and the increasing supply - side pressure at the end of the year, the market situation was not favorable [6]. - The base difference weakened slightly, the monthly difference fluctuated at a low level, and the warehouse receipts decreased at a high level as the base difference strengthened periodically. The production profits of different production methods showed different trends, with oil - based and coal - based profits at relatively low levels [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Overview - **Supply** - The total effective capacity growth rate was 16%, and the domestic production growth rate was 18% in the first half of the year. The overall supply was loose, and the PE total start - up rate was 84.1% (- 0.4%). The subsequent supply was expected to decrease slightly, but overall, it would remain in a loose state. The import volume might increase significantly at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 [6]. - **Demand** - The start - up rate of the agricultural film industry continued to decline, and the demand for packaging films had a short - term increase but was not strong enough to support the market. The start - up rates of other downstream industries were expected to decline slightly, and the demand for raw materials was expected to decrease [6]. - **Viewpoint** - The cost - side support for PE was general, and the supply - demand pattern was not optimistic. The supply pressure would gradually increase at the end of the year, and the inventory removal was not smooth. The market was expected to enter a pattern of increased supply and decreased demand in Q4, with prices under pressure [6]. - **Valuation** - The base difference weakened slightly, the monthly difference fluctuated at a low level, and the warehouse receipts decreased at a high level as the base difference strengthened periodically. The production profits of different production methods were compressed to varying degrees [6]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, it was recommended to short on rebounds. The upper pressure level for the 01 contract was 6900, and the lower support level was 6600. Cross - period and cross - variety trading were not recommended for the time being [6]. 3.2 Polyethylene Spread and Profit - **Price Spread** - The futures price decreased, the basis in East and South China was relatively strong, while that in North China first weakened and then strengthened slightly after the Friday's decline in the futures price. The monthly difference fluctuated at a low level, and the warehouse receipts decreased as the basis strengthened [9][13]. - **External Price** - The CIF price in China decreased by $5 - 10. The price in the US stopped falling and stabilized, the low - pressure injection molding was weak, the LD in Europe recovered, and the high - pressure in Southeast Asia had a relatively high price ratio [20]. - **Import Profit** - The import window was compressed, the non - standard import profit was at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years, and the LD import profit was at a relatively high level within the year. The US inventory clearance pressure was relieved, and the subsequent import volume might remain high at the beginning of the year, but new import orders were relatively cautious [27]. - **Non - Standard Price Spread** - The non - standard price spread of HD film was relatively high due to tight supply, which might attract some petrochemical plants to switch production, and supply pressure might be realized in the middle and late November. The LD price spread started to weaken month - on - month [30]. - **Upstream Price** - Crude oil fluctuated at a low level, naphtha was flat, ethylene continued to rebound, and coal prices were relatively strong [35]. - **Production Profit** - The overall production profit was compressed, especially in the monomer segment. The profits of MTO and ethylene - purchasing processes decreased slightly [41]. 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - **New Capacity** - From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the standard products were intensively put into production, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 19.2% and an effective capacity growth rate of 16.7%. Before the 2605 contract, the capacity addition was limited [45]. - **Existing Start - up** - From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the capacity base increased, the total supply increased significantly, the start - up rate was at a neutral level, and the maintenance volume was temporarily the same as the previous year [46]. - **Standard Product Supply** - The LLDPE capacity was intensively put into production, the production ratio was at a neutral level, and the supply was expected to increase in December as the maintenance scale decreased compared to November [51]. - **Maintenance Plan** - The subsequent maintenance scale was expected to decline, and the monthly maintenance volume in Q4 was temporarily lower than the same period last year [53]. - **Import and Export** - The domestic production increased significantly, and the import volume was at a low level compared to the same period. The import volume might increase at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026. The import of standard products was at a low level, and the import of LD was the same as last year. The Middle East sources from Saudi Arabia and the UAE increased slightly in October [56][59][62]. - **Inventory** - The supply gradually recovered, the upstream actively reduced inventory, and some downstream enterprises placed orders at low prices. The inventory of standard and non - standard products at factories continued to decline, and the middle and downstream mainly consumed their previous inventories [64][69]. - **Downstream Demand** - The start - up rate of the agricultural film industry continued to decline, the packaging film industry's start - up rate was the same as the previous year, the raw material procurement enthusiasm was limited, the profit was at a high level, and the orders were slightly lower than the same period. The demand for PE pipes improved slightly in Q4, and the raw material inventory was slightly lower than the same period. Overall, the downstream demand showed signs of marginal decline [71][78][84][87].

GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES IFind、Mysteel、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 品种 周度观点 原油 OPEC+决议2026年第一季度保持其暂停增产的政策不变，当下12月每日增加13.7万桶石油供应。目前国际原油市场的主要交易逻辑未发生 变化，利好来自美国对产油国的制裁政策延续和地缘局势的不确定性，而利空则是原油增产预期及全球经济、需求欠佳。地缘局势上不稳定性依 然存在，乌克兰仍在对俄罗斯境内持续袭击，美国或将军事入侵委内瑞拉。预计短期原油价格反弹空间有限，长期仍是维持震荡偏弱格局。 PX&PTA PX国内整体负荷维持高位，海外工厂低负荷运行。印度BIS认证取消对出口格局形成利好，供需格局偏紧，支撑周内PX加工费继续上涨， PXN价格走扩至290美元左右。本周国内PTA开工率提升，虹港250万吨PTA装置重启，中泰120万吨PTA装置提负。前段时间主动"反内卷"的 产能未来将逐步重启、提负。下游聚酯负荷高位持稳，不过终端织造的订单天数和库存水平已显示需求转弱，高开工或不可持续 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走强，零星聚酯工厂补货。12月货在01贴30~35附近商 谈成交，价格商谈区间在4675~4710。本周仓单在01-39成交，下周初仓单在01-35有成交，今日主流现货基差在01-32。中性 2、基差：现货4685，01合约基差-39，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.92天，环比增加0.14天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：日内PTA现货市场商谈氛围清淡，报递盘僵持，期 ...

农产品早报 2025-12-05 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周四 CBOT 大豆上涨，巴西升贴水上涨，大豆到港成本略涨。周四国内豆粕现货稳定，华东报 3010 元/ 吨，豆粕成交较弱、提货较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 213.53 万吨，上周压榨大豆 220.38 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 8.17 天环比上升 0.19 天，上周国内大豆及豆粕累库，主要是压榨量较大， 表观消费环比持平。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 巴西主要种植区 11 月同比偏干，不过 12 月初预报降雨恢复，然而东南部产区预计降雨量持续较少，产 区还未达到一帆风顺，据外媒报道，截至上周四，巴西 2025/26 年度大豆种植面积已达预期面积的 89%。 USDA 预测全球大豆供需格局由供需双增转换成供减需增，但因为全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高， 尚不足以产生 CBOT 大豆盘面种植利润丰厚的行情，预计在南美天气没有出现显著问题背景下大豆到港 成本仍然震荡为 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core Views - For glass and soda ash, the supply - demand pattern of soda ash is bearish, with expected bottom - side oscillations. Glass prices may face pressure in the medium - to - long term, especially after December [1]. - For PVC and caustic soda, the caustic soda price is expected to be weak, and PVC is likely to continue its bottom - weakening trend due to supply - demand imbalances [2]. - For LLDPE and PP, the fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [4]. - For methanol, port destocking expectations are strengthened, and the price has bottom - side support [6]. - For crude oil, short - term oil prices are expected to continue range - bound oscillations between $60 - 65 per barrel [11]. - For natural rubber, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and rubber prices are expected to be weakly volatile [12]. - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene prices may face upward pressure, and styrene is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation in the short term [13]. - For the polyester industry chain, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip all have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, with corresponding trading strategies proposed [14]. - For urea, no clear core view on price trends is provided, but supply and inventory data are presented [15]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot prices in different regions remained stable on December 4, 2025. Futures prices of glass 2601 and soda ash 2601 decreased, while the basis of 01 contracts for both increased [1]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production and float - glass daily melting volume decreased, and photovoltaic daily melting volume also declined [1]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventories and soda ash factory and delivery - warehouse inventories decreased [1]. - **Real Estate Data**: New - construction area, construction area, and sales area declined year - on - year, while the completion area increased [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: Some PVC and caustic soda prices decreased on December 3, 2025, and the basis and spread of some contracts changed [2]. - **Export**: The export profit of caustic soda increased, while that of PVC decreased [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's overall开工 rate decreased slightly, and the PVC开工 rate increased [2]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of liquid caustic soda in some regions and PVC upstream factories increased [2]. LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts decreased on December 3, 2025, and the spreads between some contracts changed [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PE装置开工率 increased, and the PP粉料开工率 increased, while the downstream weighted开工 rate of PE decreased slightly, and that of PP increased slightly [4]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP decreased [4]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures prices decreased on December 3, 2025, and the basis and spread of some contracts changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 and overseas enterprise开工率 decreased, while some downstream开工率 increased [6]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased on December 3, 2025, while SC crude oil prices decreased. The spreads between different contracts of crude oil and refined oil changed [11]. - **Market Situation**: Due to the Ukraine - Russia situation and EIA data, oil prices first rose and then fell, and short - term oil prices are expected to range - bound oscillate [11]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: Some natural rubber spot prices decreased on December 3, 2025, and the basis and spread of some contracts changed [12]. - **Production and Consumption**: The production of natural rubber in some regions decreased, and the开工率 of some downstream industries changed [12]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber increased [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream products and styrene - related products changed on December 3, 2025, and the basis, spread, and cash - flow of some contracts changed [13]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased, and the styrene inventory decreased [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工 rate of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chains changed [13]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream products, polyester products, and related spreads and cash - flows changed on December 3, 2025 [14]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory increased, and the arrival expectation also increased [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工 rate of some industries in the polyester industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [14]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: Urea futures prices and spot prices in different regions changed slightly on December 3, 2025, and the basis, spread, and cross - regional spread changed [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily output and the production enterprise开工率 increased, and the factory - warehouse inventory decreased [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The global soybean supply in the 2025/26 season has decreased compared to the 2024/25 season, and the bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high, and the soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. The palm oil market may reverse the current supply - surplus situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The sugar market is expected to be weak due to increased global production. The cotton market is unlikely to have a unilateral trend. The egg market has a short - term long and medium - term short outlook. The pig market suggests a short - selling approach for near - term contracts or reverse spreads [2][3][5][10][13][18][21][24] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal 行情资讯 - On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans declined, the Brazilian soybean premium decreased slightly, and the cost of imported soybeans also dropped slightly. The domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, with the East China price at 3,010 yuan/ton, and the trading and delivery were good. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week would be 2.1353 million tons, compared with 2.2038 million tons last week. The inventory days of feed enterprises last week were 8.17 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories increased last week mainly due to high crushing volume, while the apparent consumption remained flat [2] - The 2025/26 soybean planting area in Brazil has reached 89% of the expected area as of last Thursday. The USDA predicts that the global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed from an increase in both supply and demand to a decrease in supply and an increase in demand, but the annual inventory - to - sales ratio is still relatively high, so it is difficult to generate a high - profit situation in the CBOT soybean market. Without significant problems in South American weather, the cost of imported soybeans will mainly fluctuate [3] 策略观点 - The global soybean new - crop production has been marginally reduced, and the total production is now equal to the total demand. The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 2024/25 season, indicating that the bottom of the import cost may have appeared, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Currently, the domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, the soybean meal inventory is large, and the crushing profit is under pressure. However, as it gradually enters the destocking season, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [5] Palm Oil 行情资讯 - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month, 10% - 15.5% in the first 15 days, 14.1% - 20.5% in the first 20 days, 16.4% - 18.8% in the first 25 days, and 19.9% for the whole month of November. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.8% in the first 5 days of November, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days, was expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days, increased by 5.49% in the first 25 days, and decreased by 0.19% in the first 30 days [7] - On Wednesday, domestic palm oil futures fluctuated. Foreign investors reduced their short positions in palm oil and increased their long positions in soybean oil and rapeseed oil. The market still has high expectations for palm oil destocking during the production - reduction season. The domestic spot basis was stable [8][9] 策略观点 - The over - expected production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the market performance, and the high - frequency export data has declined. The current situation of supply surplus and inventory accumulation in palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production cannot be sustained, the destocking time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains its high - yield record, palm oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to try a long - on - dips strategy [10] Sugar 行情资讯 - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price decreased slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 5,366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton or 0.3% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the new - sugar price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,460 - 5,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the new - sugar price of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,440 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of processing sugar mills was 5,750 - 5,830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar main - contract price was 94 yuan/ton [12] - As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugarcane, an increase of 15.2 million tons year - on - year; the sugar production was 4.135 million tons, an increase of 1.375 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield was 8.51%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, an increase of 14.3% year - on - year, and the sugar production was 0.983 million tons, an increase of 8.7% year - on - year [12] 策略观点 - It is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, the international sugar price may not have much room for improvement. Coupled with the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the overall view is bearish. However, the domestic sugar price is already at a relatively low level, and the difficulty of long - short game has increased, and the probability of a trending market has decreased. It is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when the price drops [13] Cotton 行情资讯 - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the January contract was 13,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,005 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main - contract price was 1,225 yuan/ton [15] - As of the week of November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, unchanged from the previous week, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. The USDA's latest monthly supply - demand report showed that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September forecast. Among them, the production in the United States was revised up by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons, Brazil's production was revised up by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons, India's production remained at 5.23 million tons, and China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons [16] 策略观点 - Fundamentally, the peak season was not prosperous before, but the demand was not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in the futures price had digested the negative impact of the domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, there was short - term capital inflow to push up the cotton price, but there was no strong driving force. Coupled with the pressure of hedging positions, the probability of a unilateral trend in the Zhengzhou cotton market was not high [18] Eggs 行情资讯 - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable in some areas and declined in others. The average price in the main production areas decreased by 0.01 yuan to 3.05 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao decreased by 0.03 yuan to 2.64 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, the downstream sales were slow, most traders were not confident about the future market, the inventory at all levels increased slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was normal. It is expected that today's egg price will be mostly stable and slightly decline in some areas [20] 策略观点 - Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment of culling laying hens. The far - month contracts are relatively strong, while the near - month contracts fluctuate between reflecting the spot seasonal inventory accumulation and production capacity reduction. In the short term, it reflects the resonance between spot seasonal inventory accumulation and production capacity reduction. The strength of the near - and far - month contracts under the premium situation cannot be falsified for the time being. In the medium term, as the far - month contracts offer reasonable breeding profits, the production capacity reduction will slow down, and after the seasonal replenishment ends, attention should be paid to the upper pressure. A short - term long and medium - term short strategy is recommended [21] Pigs 行情资讯 - Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally declined. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 11.25 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 11.34 yuan/kg. The southern pig farms had a large number of pigs for sale, and the market sales were poor. Today, the pig price is expected to mainly decline. After the decline in the northern pig price, the pig farms showed some resistance to price cuts, so there may be some stability and slight increase in the pig price [23] 策略观点 - The theoretical number of pigs for sale is still large, the completion rate of the large - scale pig farms' sales plan is average. Under the background of high slaughter volume, the average weight of pigs is still higher than the same period last year and continues to increase month - on - month. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has stagnated at a high level, and the second - fattening pens of small - scale farmers are slowly releasing. The supply pressure remains, and there will still be an increase in the future. On the demand side, due to high temperatures, the demand has been lukewarm, with only sporadic bacon - making activities in some areas, which has limited impact on the spot market. Considering that the futures price is not low and the spot price has a downward impact on it, a strategy of short - selling near - month contracts or reverse spreads is recommended [24]

Oil Market - Oil prices experienced fluctuations with WTI January contract closing at $58.95 per barrel, up $0.31, a 0.53% increase, while Brent February contract closed at $62.67 per barrel, up $0.22, a 0.35% increase [3][18] - EIA reported an increase in U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories, with crude oil inventory rising by 574,000 barrels to 427.503 million barrels as of November 28 [3][18] - Refinery crude processing increased by 433,000 barrels per day, with refinery capacity utilization rising by 1.8 percentage points to 94.1% [3][18] - Geopolitical tensions remain, particularly with the explosion on the Druzhba pipeline segment, but supply disruptions have been limited, leading to a continued oscillation in oil prices [3][18] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.3% to 22,437 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil dropped by 0.59% to 3,017 yuan per ton [4][19] - China's independent refineries' operating rate increased to 70.53%, up 0.49 percentage points from the previous week [4][19] - The closure of the arbitrage window between East and West is expected to reduce low-sulfur fuel oil inflows to Singapore, while supply remains ample [4][19][20] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 0.41% to 2,952 yuan per ton, with total domestic asphalt inventory at 26.01%, up 0.12% week-on-week [6][21] - Domestic asphalt supply is expected to decrease further in December, but the decline may be limited due to low demand in northern regions [6][21] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 150 yuan per ton to 15,210 yuan per ton, indicating a weak supply-demand balance [7][22] - Market dynamics are influenced by the timing of rubber tapping in Thailand and the registration of new warehouse receipts [7][22] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4,730 yuan per ton, down 0.46%, while EG2601 closed at 3,822 yuan per ton, down 1.42% [8][23] - The PX futures contract closed at 6,908 yuan per ton, with downstream demand gradually weakening as year-end approaches [8][23] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2,122 yuan per ton, with expectations of a slight decrease in domestic production in December [9][24] - The overall demand for methanol is anticipated to increase due to the restart of certain production facilities [9][24] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices in East China ranged from 6,300 to 6,500 yuan per ton, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [10][25] - Supply is expected to increase as previously shut facilities resume operations, while demand is projected to weaken [10][25] PVC - PVC prices in East China showed a weak trend, with the market facing limited support from downstream demand due to a slowdown in real estate construction [11][27] - The supply side is expected to grow as maintenance periods for enterprises are at a low, but overall demand remains weak [11][27] Urea - Urea prices remained firm, with some regions seeing price increases of 10 yuan per ton, supported by strong demand from agricultural and compound fertilizer sectors [12][28] - The industry’s daily production rate was reported at 192,500 tons, with a slight increase from the previous day [12][28] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices remained stable, with the market experiencing a slight decline in certain regions [13][29] - The industry operating rate is fluctuating around a high level, but demand remains weak due to low production in downstream sectors [13][29] Glass - The glass market showed a stable performance with an average price of 1,101 yuan per ton, although some regions are experiencing price adjustments [14][30] - Demand remains relatively positive, but the core limiting factor is weak downstream demand, affecting procurement levels [14][30]

Group 1: Report Information - The reports cover multiple industries including polyolefin, methanol, crude oil, natural rubber, urea, benzene - styrene, glass - soda ash, PVC - caustic soda, and polyester产业链 on December 3, 2025 [1][5][9][10][12][13][14][15][16] Group 2: Industry Price and Spread Changes Polyolefin - Futures prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 increased on December 2 compared to December 1, with L2601 rising 0.41% to 6831 yuan/ton and PP2601 rising 0.20% to 6410 yuan/ton [2] - Price differences such as L15, LP01, etc. also had corresponding changes, with L15 rising 8.33% [2] Methanol - MA2601 decreased 0.19% to 2132 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1, while MA2605 remained unchanged [5] - Methanol enterprise inventory increased 4.19% to 37.3712%, and methanol port inventory decreased 7.83% to 136.4 million tons [5] Crude Oil - Brent decreased 1.14% to 62.45 dollars/barrel, and WTI decreased 1.15% to 58.64 dollars/barrel on December 2 compared to December 1 [9] Natural Rubber - Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased 0.34% to 14850 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1 [10] - The basis of whole latex decreased 13.33% to - 510 yuan/ton [10] Urea - Futures prices of different contracts had slight increases or decreases, with the 01 contract increasing 0.72% to 1687 yuan/ton [12] - The difference between the 01 and 05 contracts changed, with an increase of 4 in the difference [12] Benzene - Styrene - Brent crude oil (January) decreased 1.1% to 62.45 dollars/barrel on December 2 compared to December 1, and styrene in East China increased 0.9% to 6680 yuan/ton [13] Glass - Soda Ash - Glass in North China decreased 0.92% to 1080 yuan/ton, and soda ash in North China remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton [14] PVC - Caustic Soda - East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased 0.4% to 4510 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1 [15] Polyester Industry Chain - Brent crude oil (February) decreased 1.1% to 62.45 dollars/barrel, and POY150/48 price increased 0.4% to 6485 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1 [16] Group 3: Industry Supply and Demand and Inventory Polyolefin - Polypropylene supply maintenance due to high - level overhauls is expected to recover, and inventory reduction is accelerating but still higher than previous years; polyethylene supply is increasing, and although upstream inventory is decreasing, it is still higher year - on - year [2] Methanol - Inland methanol supply increased with device restarts, and coal - and gas - based profits were weak; port imports are expected to decline significantly in Q1 due to Iranian gas restrictions [5][6] Crude Oil - Under the pressure of OPEC+ continuous production increase and the record - high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern is weak, and inventories of crude oil and refined oil increased according to API data [9] Natural Rubber - Supply is expected to increase during the seasonal peak production period, and inventory is accumulating, while demand from semi - steel and full - steel tire markets is weak [10] Urea - Domestic urea daily production increased 1.19% to 20.34 million tons on November 27 compared to November 28, and urea plant inventory decreased 5.10% to 136.39 million tons [12] Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply is sufficient with device restarts and expected imports, and demand support is limited; styrene supply is expected to be stable, and demand support is also limited, but the inventory accumulation expectation is not obvious in December [13] Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash production decreased due to device overhauls but recently recovered, and glass factory inventory decreased slightly; real - estate data shows mixed trends with new construction area decreasing and completion area increasing [14] PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda supply is abundant, and demand support is weak; PVC supply pressure remains, and demand is in the off - season, but export orders are relatively good [15] Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is expected to be better in the medium - term, and PTA supply decreased more than expected, while demand support is stronger than expected; MEG inventory accumulation in December is expected to narrow, but supply pressure remains [16] Group 4: Industry Core Views and Strategies Polyolefin - The fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [2] Methanol - Inland supply increases, and port imports are expected to decline, with winter fuel demand providing support [6] Crude Oil - International oil prices are expected to continue range - bound, with Brent likely to fluctuate between 60 - 65 dollars/barrel in the short - term [9] Natural Rubber - The market is expected to maintain range - bound consolidation, with rubber prices expected to operate between 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton [10] Urea - No specific overall view and strategy are clearly stated in the provided text [12] Benzene - Styrene - For pure benzene, short - term BZ2603 is recommended to be short on rebounds; for styrene, short - term EB01 is recommended to be treated as wide - range fluctuations [13] Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash is expected to be in a bottom - range fluctuation, and glass is expected to face pressure in the medium - and long - term, with the 01 contract having pressure in December [14] PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak, and PVC is expected to continue the bottom - weakening pattern [15] Polyester Industry Chain - PX is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 7000 yuan/ton in the short - term; PTA is expected to be in a high - level range - bound in the short - term; MEG is expected to be in a range - bound in December; short - fiber follows raw material fluctuations, and processing fees are recommended to be shorted on highs; bottle - chip processing fees are expected to be squeezed [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefins - The fundamentals of LLDPE and PP show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with both cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [2]. Methanol - The supply of inland methanol increases with the restart of devices, but the profits of coal - and gas - based production are weak. The traditional downstream demand has a slight increase, and the winter fuel demand provides support. In ports, the reduction of imports due to Iranian gas restrictions strengthens the de - stocking expectation and supports prices [6]. Natural Rubber - The supply is expected to increase seasonally, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The terminal demand improvement is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 15000 - 15500 [9]. Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks support oil prices in the short term, but the continuous increase in OPEC+ production and the record - high US crude oil production put pressure on the supply - demand pattern. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with Brent crude oil likely to trade between 60 - 65 dollars per barrel [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The medium - term supply - demand expectation is good, but the short - term valuation drive is limited. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to tighten in December but be relatively loose in Q1. The absolute price is relatively firm in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. - Ethylene glycol: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in December. - Short - fiber: The short - term price support is strong, but the absolute price drive is limited, and the processing fee is likely to be compressed. - Bottle - chip: The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price is under upward pressure. - Styrene: The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, but the upward drive is insufficient [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. - Glass: The short - term spot market is strong, but the 01 contract may face pressure later [16]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: The demand is weak, and the price is expected to run weakly. - PVC: The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to continue the bottom - range fluctuation [17]. LPG No overall view was provided in the LPG report, but price, inventory, and开工率 data were presented [18]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 had different price changes on December 1st compared to November 28th. Spot prices of some products also changed, with the price of华东PP拉丝现货 increasing by 0.32% and华北LLDPE现货 increasing by 0.30% [2]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP inventories decreased, with PE企业库存 decreasing by 9.80% and PP企业库存 decreasing by 8.00% [2]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 increased by 2.17%, while PP装置开工率 decreased by 0.18% [2]. Methanol - **Prices**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices changed slightly on December 1st compared to November 28th. Spot prices of some regions also had minor changes [5]. - **Inventory**: Methanol企业库存 increased by 4.19%, while甲醇港口库存 decreased by 7.83% [5]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 of methanol changed, with the上游 - domestic企业开工率 decreasing by 0.67% and the下游 -外采MTO装置开工率 decreasing by 0.78% [6]. Natural Rubber - **Prices**: The price of云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 1.33%, and the price of泰标混合胶 increased by 0.34% [9]. - **Production and Consumption**: The production of some countries in September changed, with Thailand's production decreasing by 5.45%. The domestic tire production and export in October decreased [9]. - **Inventory**: The保税区库存 increased by 2.74% [9]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices all increased on December 1st compared to November 28th [11]. - **Spreads**: Some price spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 changed [11]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices and spreads of refined oil products also had different changes [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: Upstream prices such as Brent crude oil and CFR日本石脑油 changed. Downstream polyester product prices also had various changes, with POY150/48价格 decreasing by 0.1% [14]. - **Spreads**: PX - related spreads and PTA - related spreads changed, such as PX -原油 increasing by 1.9% [14]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of various links in the polyester industry chain changed, with the亚洲PX开工率 decreasing by 1.3% [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: Pure benzene and styrene prices changed, with纯苯华东现货 decreasing by 0.6% and苯乙烯华东现货 decreasing by 0.2% [15]. - **Spreads**: Related spreads such as EB - BZ现货价差 increased by 1.6% [15]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories and开工率 changed, with纯苯江苏港口库存 increasing by 36.6% and苯乙烯开工率 decreasing by 2.4% [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices**: Glass and soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices changed, with the华东报价 of glass increasing by 0.84% and the纯碱2605 increasing by 0.68% [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工率 and production of soda ash decreased, and the浮法日熔量 and光伏日熔量 also decreased [16]. - **Inventory**: Glass and soda ash inventories decreased, with the玻璃厂库 decreasing by 1.49% and the纯碱厂库 decreasing by 3.47% [16]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda changed, with山东32%液碱折自价 decreasing by 2.7% [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and downstream industries changed, with the烧碱行业开工率 decreasing by 0.7% [17]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of PVC and caustic soda changed, with the液碱华东厂库库存 increasing by 6.0% [17]. LPG - **Prices**: LPG futures and spot prices changed, with the主力 PG2601 decreasing by 1.59% and the华南现货(民用气) increasing by 1.81% [18]. - **Inventory**: LPG inventories decreased, with theLPG炼厂库容比 decreasing by 7.70% [18]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of upstream and downstream industries changed, with the上游 -主营炼厂开工率 decreasing by 1.26% [18].

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a range - bound consolidation. If the raw material output is smooth, the rubber price is expected to weaken; if the raw material output is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to trade in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai increased from 14,800 to 15,000 yuan/ton, with a rise of 200 yuan and a growth rate of 1.35%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased from 14,600 to 14,650 yuan/ton, with a rise of 50 yuan and a growth rate of 0.34% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of natural rubber futures increased from - 50 to - 35 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 30.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, Thailand's rubber production decreased by 5.45% to 451.50 thousand tons, Indonesia's production decreased by 1.71% to 195.00 thousand tons, and China's production increased by 8.60 thousand tons [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The geopolitical situation still supports oil prices in the short term, but under the pressure of OPEC + continuous production increase and the record - high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern remains weak. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and Brent crude oil may fluctuate between 60 - 65 US dollars/barrel in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: On November 28, Brent crude oil was at 62.38 US dollars/barrel, down 0.49 US dollars or 0.78% from the previous day; WTI crude oil was at 58.55 US dollars/barrel; SC crude oil was at 450.90 yuan/barrel, up 5.80 yuan or 1.30% [3]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: ICE Gasoil was at 669.75 US dollars/ton on November 28, up 5.75 US dollars or 0.87% from the previous day [3]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The European gasoline crack spread decreased by 12.98% to 17.82 US dollars/barrel on November 28 [3]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Soda ash is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating pattern, with limited upward and downward space. Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term but may face pressure later, especially the 01 contract in December [5]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The North China glass quotation increased from 1070 to 1090 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.87% [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The North China soda ash quotation remained at 1300 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production decreased due to some device overhauls, with the production rate dropping by 3.14% to 80.08% and the weekly output decreasing by 3.15% to 69.81 million tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory decreased by 1.49% to 6236.20 ten - thousand weight boxes, and the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 3.47% to 158.74 million tons [5]. Group 4: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The increase in inland methanol supply is offset by weak coal - and gas - based profits. The reduction in port imports due to Iranian gas restrictions strengthens the port de - stocking expectation, providing bottom support for prices [6]. Summary by Directory - **Methanol Price and Spread**: The MA2601 closing price increased from 2114 to 2135 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.99% [6]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 4.19% to 37.3712 million tons, and the methanol port inventory decreased by 7.83% to 136.4 million tons [6]. - **Methanol Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.67% to 75.74%, and the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate decreased by 0.78% to 82.31% [6]. Group 5: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Both polypropylene and polyethylene present a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [9]. Summary by Directory - **Polyolefin Price and Spread**: The L2601 closing price increased from 6789 to 6857 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.34% [9]. - **Polyolefin Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 9.80% to 45.4 million tons, and the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 8.00% to 54.6 million tons [9]. - **Polyolefin Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate increased by 2.17% to 84.5%, and the PP powder operating rate increased by 6.93% to 46.6% [9]. Group 6: Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The supply - demand expectation of pure benzene is weak, and its price is under pressure. The supply - demand of styrene remains in a tight balance, but its upward driving force is insufficient [11]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The CFR China pure benzene price increased from 665 to 669 US dollars/ton, with a growth rate of 0.6% [11]. - **Styrene - related Price and Spread**: The styrene East China spot price increased from 6560 to 6630 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.1% [11]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 11.6% to 16.40 million tons, and the domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.1% to 76.6% [11]. Group 7: Ester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View PX is expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term. PTA is expected to be strong in the short - term but has limited upward space. Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate in December. Short - fiber has limited price - driving force, and bottle - chip supply - demand remains loose [12]. Summary by Directory - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The POY150/48 price decreased from 6490 to 6465 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 55 yuan or 0.4% [12]. - **PX - related Price and Spread**: The CFR China PX price increased from 826 to 836 US dollars/ton, with a growth rate of 1.2% [12]. - **PTA - related Price and Spread**: The PTA East China spot price increased from 4610 to 4635 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.5% [12]. Group 8: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Caustic soda prices are expected to run weakly, and PVC is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, with weak demand and an oversupply pattern [13]. Summary by Directory - **PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: The East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price increased from 4450 to 4470 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.4% [13]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.6% to 90.3%, and the PVC overall operating rate increased by 1.0% to 77.5% [13]. - **Demand**: The alumina industry operating rate decreased by 1.0% to 80.4% [13]. Group 9: LPG Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View No relevant information provided. Summary by Directory - **LPG Price and Spread**: The main PG2512 contract price increased from 4259 to 4412 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 3.59% [14]. - **LPG Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 7.70% to 23.7% [14]. - **LPG Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate decreased by 1.26% to 74.74%, and the downstream PDH operating rate increased by 0.26% to 69.8% [14].