1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 23, the JM2601 contract closed at 1258.5, up 5.14%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 coking coal was reported at 1460, equivalent to 1240 on the futures market. Due to political unrest in Mongolia affecting port clearance vehicle numbers and supply - side disturbances, the market sentiment was positive. The mine - end开工率 declined due to safety inspections, with neutral inventory, while the coal washery开工率 increased for two consecutive weeks, and inventory was expected to rise seasonally. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a wide - range volatile operation [2]. - On October 23, the J2601 contract closed at 1768.0, up 4.21%. The coke price increase was implemented on October 1. In terms of the macro - aspect, the EU's 19th round of sanctions against Russia would include four companies involved in circumventing Western sanctions in the Chinese oil industry. In terms of fundamentals, the hot metal output this period was 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.59 tons, with high - level fluctuations. The total coke inventory was higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 13 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a wide - range volatile operation driven by costs [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 1258.50 yuan/ton, up 49.00; J主力合约收盘价 was 1768.00 yuan/ton, up 58.50 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量 was 939022.00 hands, up 106904.00; J期货合约持仓量 was 49180.00 hands, up 1686.00 [2]. - The net position of the top 20 JM contracts was - 47469.00 hands, up 30131.00; the net position of the top 20 J contracts was - 3935.00 hands, up 19.00 [2]. - The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 66.50 yuan/ton, down 8.50; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 128.00 yuan/ton, down 17.00 [2]. - The JM warehouse receipt was 100.00 (down 100.00); the J warehouse receipt was 2070.00 (unchanged) [2]. - The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal increased by 6.00 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 155.00 US dollars/wet ton, up 2.50 [2]. - The price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Jingtang Port Australian imported main coking coal was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced main coking coal was 1710.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur main coking coal was 1450.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The JM主力合约基差 was 191.50 yuan/ton, down 49.00; the J主力合约基差 was - 48.00 yuan/ton, down 58.50 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washeries was 26.70 million tons, up 0.60; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washeries was 289.60 million tons, down 0.80 [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washeries was 0.37%, up 0.01; the monthly raw coal output was 41150.50 million tons, up 2100.80 [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4600.00 million tons, up 326.00; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 191.00 million tons, down 5.10 [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 488.16 million tons, down 19.31; the weekly inventory of coking coal at independent coking enterprises (full - sample) was 997.37 million tons, up 38.31; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 252.65 million tons, up 0.06; the weekly inventory of coke at independent coking enterprises (full - sample) was 57.29 million tons, down 6.55 [2]. - The weekly inventory of coking coal at 247 steel mills nationwide was 788.32 million tons, up 7.19; the weekly inventory of coke at 247 sample steel mills was 639.44 million tons, down 11.38 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises (full - sample) was 12.90 days, up 0.24; the weekly available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills was 11.19 days, down 0.23 [2]. - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, up 76.14; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 54.00 million tons, down 1.00 [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 3696.86 million tons, down 392.52; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.18%, up 0.05 [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 13.00 yuan/ton, down 22.00 [2]. - The monthly output of coke was 4255.60 million tons, down 4.10 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.25%, unchanged; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.31%, down 0.22 [2]. - The monthly crude steel output was 7349.01 million tons, down 387.84 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Some open - pit coal mines in Wuhai and Qipanjing stopped production due to slope treatment and resource restructuring. With stricter environmental inspections, the shipment of operating coal mines was restricted, but the impact on output was small. The safety inspection in Qipanjing affected production, reducing the supply of raw coking coal in the Wuhai market. The online auction of coal showed a premium, and the price of clean coal was planned to increase [2]. - Political unrest in Mongolia affected port clearance vehicle numbers, causing supply - side disturbances and positive market sentiment [2]. - The EU's 19th round of sanctions against Russia would include four companies involved in circumventing Western sanctions in the Chinese oil industry [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 23, the SM2601 contract was reported at 5,818, up 0.41%. On the spot side, the Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon - manganese spot was reported at 5,580. Fundamentally, inventory rebounded rapidly, production continued to decline slightly at a high level, and inventory increased for three consecutive weeks. On the cost side, the port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 9.3 tons. On the demand side, hot - metal production fluctuated at a high level. In terms of profit, the Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 130 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 270 yuan/ton. In the market, the mainstream steel procurement price was 5,820 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 180 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On October 23, the SF2601 contract was reported at 5,574, up 0.94%. On the spot side, the Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5,250, up 10 yuan/ton. Macroscopically, the US government shutdown entered the 22nd day, the second - longest on record, and the unemployment rate might rise temporarily. In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers' production mostly remained normal, delivering previous orders. Most manufacturers had hedged in the early stage, and the inventory was at a neutral level. Lanthanum coke stabilized, and the short - term cost was supported. In terms of profit, the Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 415 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 330 yuan/ton. In the market, in September, HBIS's 75B ferrosilicon tender price was 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton from the previous round. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5,818元/吨，环比上涨8元；SF主力合约收盘价为5,574元/吨，环比上涨36元[2]. - SM期货合约持仓量为549,668手，环比减少8,517手；SF期货合约持仓量为374,830手，环比减少9,875手[2]. - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 60,487手，环比减少7,204手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 26,168手，环比增加294手[2]. - SM5 - 1月合约价差为42元/吨，环比上涨4元；SF5 - 1月合约价差为58元/吨，环比下降2元[2]. - SM仓单为45,836张，环比减少456张；SF仓单为11,184张，环比增加173张[2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,580元/吨，贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,600元/吨，云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,600元/吨，环比均无变化；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,250元/吨，环比上涨10元，内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,300元/吨，青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,160元/吨，环比无变化[2]. - 锰硅指数均值为5,640元/吨，环比下降31.9元；SF主力合约基差为 - 324元/吨，环比下降26元；SM主力合约基差为 - 238元/吨，环比下降8元[2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿Mn38块天津港价格为24元/吨度，硅石（98%西北）价格为210元/吨，内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1,150元/吨，环比均无变化；兰炭（中料神木）价格为780元/吨，环比上涨20元[2]. - 锰矿港口库存为436.4万吨，环比减少9.3万吨[2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为43.28%，环比上涨0.09%；硅铁企业开工率为35.48%，环比下降0.46%[2]. - 锰硅供应为208,810吨，环比增加4,585吨；硅铁供应为112,800吨，环比减少3,000吨[2]. - 锰硅厂家库存为262,500吨，环比增加20,000吨；硅铁厂家库存为69,080吨，环比增加3,050吨[2]. - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为15.93天，环比增加0.95天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为15.52天，环比增加0.85天[2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 五大钢种锰硅需求为121,113吨，环比减少960吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为19,572.52吨，环比减少182.08吨[2]. - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为84.25%，环比无变化；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为90.31%，环比下降0.22%[2]. - 粗钢产量为7,349.01万吨，环比减少387.84万吨[2]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump cancelled his meeting with Putin in Budapest. The US lifted key restrictions on Ukraine's use of long - range missiles. The US imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies for the first time since Trump took office, and oil prices rose 4% during the session[2]. - India and the US are close to reaching a trade agreement, with tariffs reduced from 50% to 15%[2]. - Minister of Industry and Information Technology Li Lecheng said that some traditional driving forces in China are weakening, and new driving forces are still being cultivated and strengthened, not fully able to make up for the decline of traditional driving forces. The driving force should come from innovation and reform[2]. - On October 22, most of the open - pit coal mines in Wuhai and Qipanjing with a capacity of about 28.3 million tons were shut down due to slope treatment and resource restructuring. Only three fire - fighting project coal mines in Wuda District were still in normal production. Recently, local environmental inspections have become stricter, restricting the shipment of producing coal mines, but having little impact on production. In addition, safety inspections in Qipanjing have affected production, with some over - producing coal mines suspending production and shipment. The supply of coking coal raw coal in the Wuhai market has decreased, and the online auction of some coal types has seen a premium of 50 - 235 yuan/ton, with upstream sentiment improving and coking coal quotes also planning to rise[2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [3]. - For the stainless steel market, with weak downstream demand recovery, inventory accumulation, and weakening cost support, stainless steel prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On October 22, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 121,180 yuan/ton and closed at 121,380 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.11% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 73,851 (+13,460) lots, and the open interest was 121,311 (+5,022) lots. The main contract changed to 2512, showing an oscillating and declining pattern. Fed officials' hawkish signals strengthened the expectation of a continuous high - interest - rate environment, and the stronger US dollar index pressured LME nickel [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: A 1.4% nickel ore tender in the northern Philippines' Eramen mine was settled at FOB 43. There is a price difference between domestic supply and demand, and domestic factories are mostly on the sidelines. The rainy season in the Surigao mining area in the Philippines is approaching, and northern mines are mostly tendering for shipments. Iron plants are under cost pressure and have a price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore procurement. In Indonesia, the October (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27. Indonesian factories are actively purchasing raw materials recently [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was fair, and the spot premiums of each brand remained stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,953 (-73) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 250,878 (+402) tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On October 22, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2512 opened at 12,660 yuan/ton and closed at 12,710 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 99,210 (-26,868) lots, and the open interest was 179,530 (-4,171) lots. The contract followed the upward trend of the black sector, showing an oscillating and rising pattern. Stimulated by the decline in inventory in the afternoon, the price quickly rose to an intraday high of 12,730 yuan/ton but fell back slightly after failing to break through 12,750 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot**: Due to the continuous upward exploration of futures prices in the past two days, downstream inquiries increased slightly, but actual trading was light, and market quotes remained low. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 310 - 610 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 935.5 yuan/nickel point the previous day [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both apples and dates is neutral [4][8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The apple market shows a significant differentiation pattern of "high - quality goods with firm prices and common goods with chaotic prices". The price of high - quality late - Fuji apples is expected to remain stable and firm, while the price of common - quality apples may decline. The acquisition period may be shortened due to weather conditions [3][4] - The date market presents a situation of "active production areas and cautious sales areas". The inventory pressure still exists, and the new - season date production is estimated to be between 56 - 62 million tons. If the production and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend may continue; otherwise, the futures price will be in a shock pattern [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8,794 yuan/ton, a change of - 56 yuan/ton or - 0.63% from the previous day. Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late - Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of 70 semi - commercial late - Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 - 1294 in Qixia and AP01 - 494 in Luochuan both increased by 56 compared to the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price declined slightly yesterday, while the spot market was generally stable and firm. The acquisition of high - quality goods in Shaanxi and Gansu is in the later stage and being warehoused. In Shandong, although the trading volume has increased, the fruit quality is average, leading to cautious acquisition by merchants. The price of high - quality goods is expected to remain stable and firm, while the price of common - quality goods may decline with the increase in supply [3] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The late - Fuji apples are sporadically on the market. Affected by the weather, it is difficult to organize a large amount of red apples, and the acquisition period may be shortened. It is expected that the price of high - quality goods will be stable and firm, with obvious price differentiation [4] Date Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the date 2601 contract yesterday was 11,265 yuan/ton, a change of - 115 yuan/ton or - 1.01% from the previous day. Spot: The price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 9.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 1665 increased by 115 compared to the previous day [5] Market Analysis - The date futures price showed a downward trend yesterday. The spot market presented a pattern of "active production areas and cautious sales areas". The picking process in Xinjiang has accelerated, while the arrival volume in major sales areas such as Hebei and Guangdong is limited. The inventory pressure still exists, and the new - season production is estimated to be between 56 - 62 million tons. The date quality is better than that of the same period last year [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. If the production and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend of dates may continue; otherwise, the futures price will be in a shock pattern. The large - scale picking of new - season dates in the main production areas has not started yet, and it is expected to begin after the Frost's Descent. Attention should be paid to the acquisition progress and price changes [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are generally weak with high supply and consumption - side pressure. For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals are weak but may improve with potential policy support. For polysilicon, the market is affected by policies and weak reality, and is expected to maintain wide - range oscillations in the short term while being suitable for long - term low - position long - order layouts [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis**: On October 22, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8515 yuan/ton and closed at 8485 yuan/ton, with a change of 5 yuan/ton (0.06%) from the previous settlement. The main contract held 96,554 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 48,738, a decrease of 113 from the previous day. Spot prices were stable, but due to increased northwest production and no southwest reduction in October, short - term inventory increased significantly, putting pressure on the fundamentals [1]. - **Consumption - side Situation**: Organic silicon DMC quotes were 11,100 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Supported by the supply - side, domestic DMC prices were expected to rise slightly last week, but there was a possibility of weakening this week depending on new orders and downstream demand [2]. - **Strategy**: Spot prices are stable, and silicon factories are reluctant to sell at low prices. The fundamentals are currently weak, but southwest production will decrease at the end of October. The industrial silicon futures are affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. It is recommended for short - term range operations, and long positions can be taken at low prices for contracts during the dry season [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis**: On October 22, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2511 fluctuated. It opened at 50,700 yuan/ton and closed at 50,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55% from the previous day. The main contract held 49,016 lots, and 100,492 lots were traded. Spot prices were stable. Manufacturer and silicon wafer inventories increased, with polysilicon inventory at 25.30 (a 5.33% month - on - month increase) and silicon wafer inventory at 17.31GW (a 3.16% month - on - month increase). Weekly polysilicon production was 31,000 tons (no change), and silicon wafer production was 14.35GW (an 11.85% month - on - month increase) [4]. - **Related Product Prices**: Silicon wafer, battery cell, and component prices remained stable. Polysilicon production is expected to increase in October and decrease in November in the southwest region [6]. - **Strategy**: Consumption - side support is weak, with large inventory pressure and high supply in October. The November warehouse receipts cancellation will suppress the market. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and is expected to maintain wide - range oscillations in the short term. For the long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices. Short - term range operations are recommended, with the November main contract oscillating between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton and the December contract between 51,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of domestic electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly, with stable consumption growth and a slight decline in social inventory. The export market performs well, and macro - positive factors remain. The aluminum price is difficult to deeply correct, but further fundamental support is needed to open up the upward space [6]. - For alumina, the supply - surplus pattern has not been reversed, social inventory continues to increase, and there is great pressure on warehouse receipts. The current fundamental data shows few positive factors, and uncertainties need to be watched before and after the Guinea general election on December 28 [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 20,980 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of East China aluminum is 0 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 20,860 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes - 10 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 20,890 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium remains unchanged at - 85 yuan/ton [1]. 3.1.2 Aluminum Futures - On October 22, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,000 yuan/ton, closed at 21,045 yuan/ton, with a change of 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 21,070 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,950 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 132,730 lots, and the position was 257,199 lots [2]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of October 22, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 625,000 tons, with a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 67,270 tons, with a change of - 2,127 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 482,525 tons, with a change of - 1,600 tons from the previous trading day [2]. 3.1.4 Alumina Spot Price - On October 22, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,820 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,880 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,065 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,070 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 318 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.1.5 Alumina Futures - On October 22, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,809 yuan/ton, closed at 2,829 yuan/ton, with a change of 34 yuan/ton (1.22%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price reached 2,842 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,804 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 268,015 lots, and the position was 355,935 lots [2]. 3.1.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On October 22, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 16,800 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,600 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3]. 3.1.7 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 74,400 tons, and the in - factory inventory is 59,700 tons [4]. 3.1.8 Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 20,496 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is 204 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - Century Aluminum's electrolytic aluminum plant in Iceland reduced production of one production line due to electrical equipment failure, affecting about 200,000 tons of production capacity. The overall supply - demand fundamentals of domestic electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. The export market performs well, and macro - positive factors remain. The aluminum price is difficult to deeply correct, but further fundamental support is needed to open up the upward space [6]. 3.2.2 Alumina - In Shandong, about 10,000 tons were traded at a point - price, and the transaction price was concentrated at 2,790 - 2,800 yuan/ton, mainly non - standard products. The supply - surplus pattern has not been reversed, social inventory continues to increase, and there is great pressure on warehouse receipts. Before and after the Guinea general election on December 28, uncertainties need to be watched [7][8]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum (cautiously), neutral on alumina, bullish on aluminum alloy (cautiously). - Arbitrage: Long spread on Shanghai aluminum [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The inventory of steel decreased month - on - month, and steel prices rebounded. The cost of glass and soda ash increased, and their prices rebounded from the low level. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures rose slightly, while the spot market remained on the sidelines [1][3]. - Glass prices are expected to be volatile and weak, and soda ash prices are also expected to be volatile and weak. Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices are expected to remain volatile [2][4]. Market Analysis and Strategy for Different Products Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass futures fluctuated strongly yesterday with active trading. The spot market was cautious, and enterprises offered flexible prices. The supply of glass is on a low - level upward trend, the inventory of middle - stream traders is high and still accumulating. With the end of the consumption peak season approaching and the possibility of some production lines resuming production, glass demand is expected to weaken further [1]. - Soda ash futures also fluctuated strongly yesterday with relatively active trading. The downstream's purchasing enthusiasm was low, mainly for rigid demand. The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash remains prominent, with supply at a high level and still having growth expectations. The demand side has some resilience, and inventory reduction pressure persists throughout the year [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Volatile and weak [2]. - Soda ash: Volatile and weak [2]. Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis** - For silicomanganese, the main contract of silicomanganese futures rose slightly yesterday. The silicomanganese market fluctuated, and the market was cautious. The price of 6517 silicomanganese in the northern market was 5630 - 5680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. From January to August, India's cumulative export volume of silicomanganese was 761,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.90%; the cumulative import volume was 15,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.98%. Silicomanganese enterprises' losses have intensified, production is high, and with the decline of hot metal, demand has weakened. Considering the futures discount to the spot, the price is expected to remain volatile [3]. - For ferrosilicon, the main contract of ferrosilicon futures fluctuated and rose yesterday. The spot price was stable. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural block in Ningxia was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, the 72 - grade ferrosilicon standard block was quoted at 5250 - 5300 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade ferrosilicon was quoted at 5800 yuan/ton. Currently, the production of ferrosilicon enterprises has decreased slightly, enterprises are continuously losing money, and the motivation to increase production is insufficient. The downstream demand for ferrosilicon has begun to weaken, and the inventory of sample enterprises has increased [3]. - **Strategy** - Silicomanganese: Volatile [4]. - Ferrosilicon: Volatile [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas premiums have further strengthened, and the warrant risk persists. The export profit of refined zinc in China continues to expand, and the overseas selling and delivery profit begins to appear. The domestic surplus nature remains unchanged, but the later social inventory is expected to accumulate less than expected. The macro - bullish factors still exist, and the previous bearish logic of zinc prices has begun to change. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $299.34 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 21,900 yuan per ton, a decrease of 40 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 21,890 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan, with a spot premium of - 90 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 21,900 yuan per ton, a decrease of 40 yuan, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan per ton. [1] - **Futures**: On October 22, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,010 yuan per ton and closed at 22,000 yuan per ton, an increase of 40 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 102,274 lots, and the position was 132,692 lots. The highest price was 22,030 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 21,930 yuan per ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of October 22, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 165,300 tons, a change of 2,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 35,300 tons, a decrease of 1,975 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - Overseas premiums are strengthening, and the warrant risk persists. The export profit of refined zinc in China is expanding, and the overseas selling and delivery profit appears. Domestic smelters are still actively purchasing domestic ores, and the domestic ore TC continues to decline. Although imported ores are still expensive, the processing fee may also be adjusted downwards. The domestic surplus remains, but the inventory accumulation may be less than expected. The smelting comprehensive profit is narrowing, and if the situation continues or the sulfuric acid price drops, the smelting enthusiasm will be hit, and the domestic supply pressure is expected to ease. The macro - bullish factors still exist, and the previous bearish logic of zinc prices has changed. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - PVC prices may rebound with macro - sentiment after a decline. The supply is abundant due to new capacity and recovering from maintenance, and demand has improved. Export is strong but there are potential risks from anti - dumping investigations. Attention should be paid to policies and political meetings. [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is mainly stable, with a slight increase in Jiangsu. Supply is expected to rise slightly, while demand sentiment is mixed due to alumina plant production cuts. Inventory varies by region, and new alumina plant demand needs attention. [3] Group 3: Summary by Category PVC Market Data - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4719 yuan/ton (+20). The basis in East China is - 89 yuan/ton (-20), and in South China is - 19 yuan/ton (-20). [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4630 yuan/ton (+0), and in South China at 4700 yuan/ton (+0). [1] - Upstream production profit: The price of semi - coke is 690 yuan/ton (+0), calcium carbide is 2830 yuan/ton (+0), calcium carbide profit is - 12 yuan/ton (+0), calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 713 yuan/ton (-91), ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 553 yuan/ton (-14), and PVC export profit is - 0.8 dollars/ton (+0.0). [1] - Inventory and开工: Factory inventory is 36.0 tons (-2.3), social inventory is 55.6 tons (-0.1), calcium carbide - based PVC开工 rate is 74.73% (-7.03%), ethylene - based PVC开工 rate is 76.10% (-2.44%), and overall PVC开工 rate is 75.14% (-5.66%). [1] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 55.6 tons (-2.8). [1] Market Analysis - Supply: Some maintenance enterprises have resumed, and new capacity is ramping up. The supply is abundant. [3] - Demand: Downstream开工 has recovered, and point - price transactions have improved. Exports are strong, but PVC product exports may be affected by anti - dumping investigations. [3] - Inventory: Social inventory has decreased slightly, but the absolute value is still high. [3] - Price: The futures price is under pressure from high - level hedging, but may be affected by policies. [3] Caustic Soda Market Data - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2380 yuan/ton (+5), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 183 yuan/ton (-5). [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 820 yuan/ton (+0), and 50% is 1280 yuan/ton (+0). [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1571 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 988.3 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali (1 ton of PVC) in Shandong is 216.28 yuan/ton (+0.00), and in the Northwest is 1191.25 yuan/ton (-50.51). [2] - Inventory and开工: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 40.33 tons (-1.79), flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.45 tons (+0.34), and the开工 rate is 81.40% (-2.90%). [2] - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate is 86.22% (-0.10%), the dyeing开工 rate in East China is 66.76% (+0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate is 88.61% (-1.02%). [2] Market Analysis - Supply: New capacity has been put into full production, and more maintenance enterprises have resumed, so supply is expected to increase slightly. [3] - Demand: Alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but there are expectations of production cuts in Henan. Non - aluminum demand is mainly for rigid needs. [3] - Inventory: Shandong's inventory is stable, while Jiangsu's inventory has increased. [3] - Price: The price is mainly stable, with a slight increase in Jiangsu. [3] Strategies - PVC: Unilateral - wait and see; Inter - delivery spread - sell V01 and buy V05 when the spread is high; Inter - commodity spread - no strategy [4] - Caustic Soda: Unilateral - wide - range oscillation; Inter - delivery spread - wait and see; Inter - commodity spread - no strategy [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Cross - period: EG2601 - EG2605 reverse spread. Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - On the futures and spot markets, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,051 yuan/ton (up 47 yuan/ton, +1.17% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 4,122 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan/ton, +0.78% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 81 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month). Driven by the news of several device operations and possible supply cuts in Saudi Arabia, the EG price rose, and the spot basis strengthened simultaneously [1] - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 68 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was - 649 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - In terms of inventory, according to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 57.9 tons (up 3.8 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 49.3 tons (up 5.0 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.5 tons, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 5.3 tons, and at the secondary ports is 6.3 tons, with the inventory expected to remain stable [1] - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas ethylene glycol supply. More than two sets of Saudi Arabian devices are still shut down or operating at low loads, with little expected change. On the demand side, due to high tariffs, there is no peak - season boom, the increase in polyester load is limited, but there is still rigid demand. The ethylene glycol balance sheet has a large inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory is expected to gradually rise [2] - The ethylene glycol port inventory is rising, with large inventory accumulation pressure under high supply. The price has fallen to near the April low. Attention should be paid to the shipping fee issue related to vessels involved in US - related problems [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,051 yuan/ton (up 47 yuan/ton, +1.17% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 4,122 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan/ton, +0.78% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 81 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 68 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was - 649 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis provided in the given text Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - High tariffs lead to no peak - season boom, the increase in polyester load is limited, but there is still rigid demand [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 57.9 tons (up 3.8 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 49.3 tons (up 5.0 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.5 tons, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 5.3 tons, and at the secondary ports is 6.3 tons, with the inventory expected to remain stable. The ethylene glycol balance sheet has a large inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory is expected to gradually rise [1][2]