1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of "strong reality, strong expectation", and the operation should still be mainly to go long on dips [1]. - The polysilicon market may continue to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support level at 50,000 yuan [7]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to remain under pressure, and it is currently oscillating in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan [10][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures fluctuated widely today. The main 2605 contract fell 1.09% from the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 143,420 yuan/ton [1]. - **Core Logic**: The recent trading logic mainly includes the confirmed price increase of downstream lithium iron phosphate and the smooth price transmission downstream, as well as the concerns about the stability of South American lithium resource supply due to the sudden change in the geopolitical situation in Venezuela. Today's weekly production and inventory data showed an increase of 115 tons in production and a stockpile of 337 tons. However, there is a phenomenon of traders locking in inventory, and the inventories of smelters and downstream are at the lowest levels of the year, with the smelter inventory reaching a three - year low [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: From the perspective of overall capital sentiment, the lithium carbonate futures are still controlled by bulls. However, the position has been declining recently, and the risk of bulls taking profits and closing positions should be vigilant. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is a red line, blue ribbon, and red ladder. The overnight 2 - hour cycle is still a strong red ladder line, and the long - short dividing water level is 121,580 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectation", the operation should still be mainly to go long on dips. Do not chase the high directly. Find good entry positions according to the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" intraday, and specific operations can be heard in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [1]. - **Follow - up Focus**: Follow - up attention should be paid to whether the exchange supervision intervenes, the recovery of new energy vehicle sales data after the subsidy continuation, and the actual impact of the geopolitical situation on lithium ore supply [2][3]. 3.2 Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures continued to decline today. The main 2605 contract fell 4.31% from the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 51,300 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: It was confirmed today that the State Administration for Market Regulation interviewed the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and leading enterprises on January 6, requiring them not to make agreements on production capacity, capacity utilization, production and sales volume, and sales price, etc. Previously, the polysilicon futures were trading in a high - level range between 55,000 and 60,000 yuan. Now, the silicon material price can no longer be maintained at a high level through cooperation and will return to cost competition. Leading enterprises may squeeze out small enterprises by reducing costs through technology, and the price may continue to fall [5][7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The position of polysilicon futures still declined significantly today. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, green ribbon, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is a weak green ladder line. The long - short dividing water level is 59,365 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The polysilicon market may continue to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support level at 50,000 yuan [7]. - **Follow - up Focus**: The follow - up policy trend of "anti - involution" [7]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly today. The 2605 contract rose 2.11% from the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 8,715 yuan/ton [10]. - **Core Logic**: The interview of the photovoltaic association and leading enterprises by the State Administration for Market Regulation will cause the silicon material price to lose the coordinated support and return to cost competition. In the long run, polysilicon enterprises will reduce the purchase price and quantity of industrial silicon, directly putting pressure on the industrial silicon price. Coupled with the weak supply - demand situation and high inventory of industrial silicon itself, it lacks upward momentum [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of industrial silicon futures declined significantly. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green line, red ribbon, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is a weak green ladder line. The long - short dividing water level is 9,000 yuan/ton [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is currently oscillating in the 8,500 - 9,000 yuan range. In the long term, attention can be paid to the impact of polysilicon returning to cost - based pricing on industrial silicon. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [12]. - **Follow - up Focus**: The follow - up policy trend of "anti - involution" [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - PX is in a unilateral high - level volatile market, and attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage of monthly differentials. PTA is in a high - level volatile market. MEG has limited upside space and still faces pressure in the medium term [1] - For PX, cost - end oil prices are rising, but the PX industry has weakened, and attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent sector rotation on valuation and positive spread arbitrage positions. For PTA, it is in a high - level volatile market, with rising processing fees on the 05 contract, expected increase in operating rate, and continuous de - stocking. For MEG, the medium - term trend remains weak, and monthly spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **PX**: The previous day's closing price of the PX main contract was 7168, down 118 with a decline of 1.62%. The monthly spread PX5 - 9 was 88, down 26 from the previous day. The spot price was 886 US dollars/ton, down 13.67 from the previous day. The PX - naphtha price difference was 363.88, up 7.92 from the previous day [2] - **PTA**: The previous day's closing price of the PTA main contract was 5086, down 64 with a decline of 1.24%. The monthly spread PTA5 - 9 was 60, down 16 from the previous day. The spot price was 5072 yuan/ton, down 23 from the previous day. The PTA processing fee was 361.63, up 6.66 from the previous day. The current PTA load is 78.2% [2][3] - **MEG**: The previous day's closing price of the MEG main contract was 3846, down 33 with a decline of 0.85%. The monthly spread MEG5 - 9 was - 91, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price was 3698, down 15 from the previous day. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate is at a high level of 73.9% [2][8] - **PF**: The previous day's closing price of the PF main contract was 6490, down 54 with a decline of 0.83%. The monthly spread PF12 - 1 was - 54, up 16 from the previous day [2] - **SC**: The previous day's closing price of the SC main contract was 416.2, down 0.1 with a decline of - 0.02%. The monthly spread SC11 - 12 was - 1.1, up 1.9 from the previous day [2] Market Dynamics - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical situations in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel remain uncertain, with short - term potential supply risks continuing, leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.77 dollars/barrel to 57.76, a month - on - month increase of 3.16%. ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 2.03 dollars/barrel to 61.99, a month - on - month increase of 3.39%. China INE crude oil futures 2602 contract fell 6.8 to 418 yuan/barrel and rose 6.6 to 424.6 yuan/barrel in the night session [3] - **PX**: The price of naphtha at the end of the session was weakly maintained. Today, the PX price declined, with the current PX valuation at 886 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 14 US dollars from the previous day [3] - **PTA**: There were no significant changes in the PTA plants in the Chinese mainland this week, with individual plants increasing their loads, and the current PTA load is 78.2% [3] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity is 1, PTA trend intensity is 1, and MEG trend intensity is 0 [7] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Cost - end oil prices have recovered, and PX valuation has returned to a reasonable level. However, the PX industry has weakened, and attention should be paid to positive spread arbitrage positions and the impact of subsequent sector rotation on valuation [7] - **PTA**: It is in a high - level volatile market. The processing fee of the 05 contract on the disk has risen to over 300 yuan/ton, and the operating rate is expected to increase. The overall operating rate will remain at around 78%, and PTA is still in the process of continuous de - stocking [8] - **MEG**: The medium - term trend remains weak, and monthly spread reverse arbitrage is recommended. Although the performance of coal - chemical related products is strong, the domestic ethylene glycol operating rate is still at a high level. The supply pressure will improve marginally in the medium term, but it is difficult to change the situation of ethylene glycol oversupply in the medium term [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Copper**: Night - time copper prices closed 0.98% lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it continued to grow overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Supply disruptions in mines have shifted the global copper supply - demand outlook to a deficit, and short - term copper prices are more affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - **Zinc**: Night - time zinc prices closed 0.73% lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, and smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but attention needs to be paid to the overall market sentiment in the non - ferrous sector. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metal Price and Market Data - **Copper**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 100,970 yuan/ton with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 12,721 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 14.98 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 143,225 tons with a daily change of - 2,850 tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,350 yuan/ton with a basis of - 110 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 3,091 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 17.33 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 501,750 tons with a daily change of - 2,500 tons [2]. - **Zinc**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,315 yuan/ton with a basis of 145 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 3,131 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 45.20 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 105,500 tons with a daily change of - 275 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 147,400 yuan/ton with a basis of - 6,570 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 17,155 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 223.90 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 275,634 tons with a daily change of 20,088 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,755 yuan/ton with a basis of - 120 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 2,017 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 43.10 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 230,425 tons with a daily change of - 2,925 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 357,800 yuan/ton with a basis of 8,790 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 43,750 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 52.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 5,405 tons with a daily change of - 15 tons [2].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. With both supply and demand decreasing, along with the transmission effect of rising coal and photovoltaic industry chain prices, price support is obvious. The upside depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory depletion progress, while the downside is limited by cost support and production reduction expectations [1][3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate around 53,000 yuan/ton. Policy factors may have contributed to the sharp price drop. In the off - season of the photovoltaic market, terminal demand is weak, downstream inventories are abundant, and substantial market demand is sluggish. In the short term, pay attention to new silicon wafer quotes and the January production plan; in the long term, focus on the implementation of the storage policy and inventory depletion progress [3][6]. Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon Price and Trading Data - On January 8, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,940 yuan/ton and closed at 8,535 yuan/ton, a change of - 405 yuan/ton (- 4.53%) from the previous day's settlement. At the close, the main contract 2605 had a position of 260,531 lots. On January 7, 2026, the total number of warehouse receipts was 10,799 lots, a change of 112 lots from the previous day [1]. Supply Side - Industrial silicon spot prices were basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passed 553 price was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. As of December 31, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.7 million tons, a change of 0.36% from the previous week [1]. Demand Side - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 yuan/ton. Recently, an orange pollution alert was issued in Shihezi, Xinjiang, and the expected supply contraction supported the price increase. The weekly output of silicone enterprises changed little. Under the background of emission reduction and price support, silicone monomer enterprises began to reduce production since early December. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable. The recycled aluminum enterprises in Chongqing that reduced production due to air pollution last week maintained the reduced - production state this week. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable with a slight downward trend [2]. Group 4: Strategy for Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation. - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options are provided [3]. Group 5: Market Analysis of Polysilicon Price and Trading Data - On January 8, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fell sharply to the daily limit, opening at 57,000 yuan/ton and closing at 53,610 yuan/ton, a 9.00% drop from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 58,049 lots (67,800 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 39,605 lots [3]. Supply and Inventory - Polysilicon spot prices strengthened slightly. N - type material was 52.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturer inventories and silicon wafer inventories increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 30.60 (unit not specified), a 0.90% change from the previous period, and silicon wafer inventory was 23.19GW, a 6.92% change. The weekly polysilicon output was 24,000 tons, a - 5.10% change, and silicon wafer output was 10.18GW, a - 1.45% change [3]. Downstream Product Prices - Silicon wafers: Domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.39 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.49 yuan/piece. - Battery cells: High - efficiency PERC182 battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.39 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.39 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.39 yuan/W; HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan/W. - Components: PERC182mm mainstream transaction price was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm mainstream transaction price was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm mainstream transaction price was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm mainstream transaction price was 0.71 - 0.72 yuan/W [4][5]. Group 6: Strategy for Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, with the main contract expected to fluctuate in the range around 53,000 yuan/ton. - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options are provided [6].

Group 1: Report Title and Overview - The report is titled "Fruit and Vegetable Daily | 2026-01-09", focusing on apples and red dates [1] Group 2: Apple Analysis Market News and Key Data - Apple 2605 contract closed at 9,531 yuan/ton yesterday, down 52 yuan/ton (-0.54%) from the previous day. Shandong Qixia 80 first and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged; Shaanxi Luochuan 70 above semi - commodity late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged. The spot basis AP05 was - 1331 and - 1131 respectively, up 52 from the previous day [2] Recent Market Information - In production areas, the overall transaction of late Fuji in the warehouse is limited. Gansu has good shipment, while Shaanxi and Shandong have sporadic Spring Festival gift box packaging, with transactions mainly on low - price goods. The destocking pressure of general - quality fruit farmers' goods remains. The terminal is affected by competing fruits, and demand is weak. Short - term transactions are expected to be flat, with mainstream prices stable. After the Spring Festival stocking starts, the market may diverge [3] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the apple futures price fluctuated and closed down. Transaction speeds vary by region, with Gansu attracting more customers. Inquiry customers increase, but transactions don't improve significantly. Merchants mainly trade in - stock goods. The prices of general and poor - quality apples are loose. Low - price alternative fruits in the sales area suppress apple sales. The 2025 high - quality fruit rate was poor, and cold - storage inventory is lower than usual. There are structural contradictions. The price of high - quality apples is firm, while that of poor - quality apples is loose. The cold - storage destocking speed is slower than in previous years [4] Strategy - Neutral. In January 2026, Spring Festival stocking starts, but the low high - quality fruit rate and inventory lead to high prices of high - quality apples, suppressing sales in the sales area. Low - price alternative fruits also squeeze the sales space [5] Group 3: Red Date Analysis Market News and Key Data - Red date 2605 contract closed at 9,075 yuan/ton yesterday, down 75 yuan/ton (-0.82%) from the previous day. Hebei first - grade gray jujube spot price was 8.20 yuan/kg, unchanged. The spot basis CJ05 was - 875, up 75 from the previous day [6][7] Recent Market Information - The acquisition of gray jujubes in Xinjiang production areas is almost finished. The mainstream prices vary by region. In the Hebei market, the arrival of sub - standard goods is about 10 trucks, and the finished products are few. The market price is stable, and downstream customers purchase as needed. In the Guangdong market, the arrival is 2 trucks, and the price is stable [7] Market Analysis - Red date futures prices fluctuated downward yesterday. The acquisition in production areas is ending, and prices are stable. The supply is loose due to the overlap of new and old jujubes. The arrival speed in the sales area is accelerating, and the trading atmosphere is good. The inventory pressure is large due to the overlap of two seasons. In the medium - to - long - term, the market depends on the Spring Festival consumption. If demand improves, prices may rise slightly; otherwise, they may weaken [8] Strategy - Neutral [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The 2 - month contract is approaching delivery, and attention should be paid to the price correction in the second half of the month. The 02 contract is expected to have a delivery settlement price between 1750 - 1850 points under relatively pessimistic estimates, and its valuation support is expected to be in this range. The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downwards, but the situation of contracts in June and August remains uncertain. The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and there is no arbitrage strategy currently [5][6][7][9] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of January 8, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 58,139.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 46,089.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1706.00, 1163.30, 1415.00, 1527.40, 1105.20, and 1343.00 respectively [8] 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from different shipping companies vary. For example, in the Shanghai - Rotterdam route, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk's price in the fourth week of January was 1685/2710; HPL's quotes in the first and second half - months of January and the first half - month of February were 1835/3035. Different alliances and shipping companies also have different price quotes and changes [1][2] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. In terms of delivery expectations, the delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [3] - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January was 318,600 TEU, and in February it was 283,500 TEU, and in March it was 279,000 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings in January, 4 TBNs and 6 blank sailings in February, and 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs in March [4] 4. Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is progressing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming navigation in 2026 is relatively high. Currently, some shipping routes have started to resume operations, which will put pressure on the far - month contract prices [7] 5. Demand and European Economy - The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The delivery settlement price of the February contract basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. The demand situation is affected by factors such as the approaching Spring Festival [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no mention of the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel variety, although the current fundamentals show high inventory and oversupply, with frequent positive policies from Indonesia and a long period of bottom - side oscillation, it is likely to be in a high - level oscillation state, but its trend depends on the overall sector sentiment. For the stainless - steel variety, the short - term trend highly depends on the performance of Shanghai nickel, and in the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to the improvement of spot trading and policy implementation rhythm [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 8, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 146,500 yuan/ton and closed at 136,440 yuan/ton, a - 6.14% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,520,564 (+388,308) lots, and the open interest was 128,055 (-4,900) lots. The sharp decline was due to the Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister not disclosing the specific amount of 2026 nickel - mine RKAB approval and the decline of the precious - metal and non - ferrous sectors [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel - ore market has limited resources. The 1.25 nickel - ore from the Benguet mine in the Philippines was tendered at $32.5, a month - on - month increase. In January 2026 (Phase 1), the domestic trade benchmark price in Indonesia increased by $0.05 - 0.08 per wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25 [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 152,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading improved, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands remained high. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 39,330 (+554) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 276,300 (+666) tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 8, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2603 opened at 14,050 yuan/ton and closed at 13,675 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 424,667 (+136,211) lots, and the open interest was 114,820 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a high - opening, low - closing, and oscillating - downward trend. The stainless - steel futures are easily affected by the price fluctuations of Shanghai nickel, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of the Indonesian nickel - ore quota policy [3]. - **Spot**: The futures decline led to a limited callback in some spot prices, and the trading volume also decreased significantly. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 13,900 (+0) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 130 - 330 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 12.50 yuan per nickel point to 960.0 yuan per nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options. It is recommended to control positions, trade based on key support levels, and be vigilant against the risk of linked callbacks [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Options: Sell wide straddle [4] 2. Core View of the Report - At the end of the year, the supply - demand weakness pattern of lead is more obvious. Driven by the overall rise of the non - ferrous sector, the demand in the off - season becomes weaker. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,850 yuan in January 2026 [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On January 8, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$43.10 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 225 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -125 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,050 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton, and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On January 8, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,725 yuan/ton and closed at 17,335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 495 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 87,520 lots, an increase of 4,179 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position was 46,028 lots, a decrease of 5,981 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,760 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,265 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,350 yuan/ton and closed at 17,290 yuan/ton, a 0.26% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price increased by 125 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In different regions, the quotes of smelters and traders varied. Due to the continuous strengthening of lead prices, downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing, and the overall market trading was weak [2] Inventory - On January 8, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 20,000 tons, an increase of 600 tons compared with the same period last week. As of January 8, the LME lead inventory was 226,450 tons, a decrease of 3,975 tons compared with the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Propylene downstream start - up has rebounded, supporting price increase. The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and with sentiment boost, the propylene price has continued to strengthen. Future focus should be on cost - side changes and the implementation of PDH unit maintenance [1][2] - Unilateral strategy is to wait and see. Although the supply - demand situation has slightly improved in the short term, the support is still limited. The short - term market is mainly in a strong oscillation under sentiment boost, waiting for marginal unit maintenance [3] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents data on propylene basis, including the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, and 03 - 04 contract spread. The propylene main contract closing price is 5963 yuan/ton (+9), the East China basis is 12 yuan/ton (+16) [1][6] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - Propylene start - up rate is 76% (+1%). The production profit and start - up rate of different production methods such as PDH, MTO, and naphtha cracking are also involved. For example, the PDH production profit and capacity utilization rate are presented [1][19] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - The start - up rates and production profits of various downstream products are provided. PP powder start - up rate is 37% (-1.19%), production profit is - 40 yuan/ton (+5); epoxy propane start - up rate is 74% (+0%), production profit is - 47 yuan/ton (+68); etc [1] 4. Propylene Inventory - Propylene plant inventory is 44,690 tons (-3,100) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the New Year's Day holiday in 2026, the environmental protection restrictions in some areas were lifted, leading to improved transactions. The futures market showed a volatile upward trend, which further boosted the spot purchasing sentiment, causing a slight increase in spot prices. However, the new orders slowed down with the price increase. The supply side saw a rise in supply as some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production in January after the gas - based maintenance in the fourth quarter started in December. The demand side was in the process of off - season storage procurement. The sentiment in the compound fertilizer market cooled down due to the raw material supply - guarantee policies, but the start - up rate rebounded after the environmental protection restrictions were lifted in some areas after New Year's Day, and the procurement improved. The start - up rate of melamine also rebounded with rigid demand procurement. The factory inventory of urea remained basically flat this week, while the port inventory decreased slightly. The Indian NFL urea import tender on January 2nd received 26 suppliers with a total bid volume of 3.62 million tons, and the lowest quotes were higher than the previous tender, which boosted the international urea market sentiment. The report suggests continuous monitoring of export dynamics, compound fertilizer raw material procurement rhythm, national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot purchasing sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report includes the market prices of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [1][3][4][5][6][8][9][14][16] 2. Urea Production - It covers the weekly production of urea and the loss of urea plant maintenance [18][19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based and gas - based capacity utilization rates are presented [27][28][30] 4. Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - The FOB prices of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea and large - particle urea CFR in Southeast Asia, the FOB and CFR prices of small - and large - particle urea in China, the differences between foreign and Chinese prices, and the urea export profit and disk export profit are included [32][36][39] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - The start - up rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of orders to be delivered are shown [46][47] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract are included [50][53][57] Strategy - Unilateral trading: Volatile - Inter - period trading: Go long on UR05 - 09 spread when the spread is low - Inter - variety trading: None [3]