1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The steel market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with an emerging inventory accumulation trend. The future supply is expected to continue to recover, and the height of inventory accumulation will determine the spring market [1]. - The iron ore market has intensifying supply - demand contradictions, with a significant increase in overall inventory. The price is currently in high - level oscillation, but there is a downward risk once the negotiation results are out [3]. - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both rising, and the inventory continues to increase. Coke is expected to maintain an oscillatory operation in the short term, and the supply - demand of coking coal remains relatively loose [5][6]. - The Indonesian reduction in coal supply has led to a steady increase in port coal prices. The thermal coal price is oscillating strongly in the short term, and the long - term supply pattern remains loose [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures market rose and then fell yesterday. The spot market was weak, with a national building material turnover of 83,800 tons. This week, rebar production increased and inventory accumulated, while consumption declined; hot - rolled coil production increased but inventory decreased, and consumption also dropped [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: There are currently no contradictions in the steel supply - demand fundamentals. Supply has recovered month - on - month, consumption has declined, and inventory shows seasonal accumulation. The futures market reflects long - term expectations, while the spot market is relatively rational. The cost is generally stable, and enterprises maintain certain profits. Future supply is expected to continue to recover, and the height of inventory accumulation will determine the spring market [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, or options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price oscillated slightly yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported ore varieties were weaker, and the Platts Index was slightly adjusted downwards. This week, iron ore inventory continued to accumulate, port inventory increased significantly, steel mills replenished inventory slightly, and the amount of stranded cargoes in ports increased [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is intensifying, with a large increase in overall inventory and a slight improvement in downstream replenishment willingness. Due to the locked - in liquidity of some port supplies and uncertainties in long - term actual supply, the market gives a high valuation to iron ore prices. Once the negotiation results are out, the supply - demand contradiction will be exposed, and the price will face a downward risk. In the short term, the actual inventory pressure is limited, and the price will maintain high - level oscillation with future steel mill resumption and replenishment [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, or options [4]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated yesterday. The coke market was stable, and the expectation of further price reduction weakened significantly. The sentiment in the coking coal market improved, and some terminal procurement plans were advanced. The price of some Mongolian 5 coking coal spot has risen to 1,010 - 1,035 yuan/ton. This week, coking coal supply recovered, inventory continued to increase, and demand improved due to the resumption of hot metal production [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After the New Year's Day, with the resumption of blast furnaces and the winter storage replenishment of steel mills before the Spring Festival, the demand for coke is expected to improve. In the short term, coke will maintain an oscillatory operation benefiting from the rise in raw coal prices. The supply - demand of coking coal remains relatively loose. Although the rigid demand for coking coal has improved with the resumption of steel mills after the New Year's Day, the supply of coking coal has recovered relatively quickly, and the inventory accumulation trend has not been alleviated. The change in production - capacity increase in the origin needs further verification [6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke strategies are to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, or options [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, coal prices accelerated to rise. Chemical customers had good rigid demand, high - calorie coal had good sales, but power plant demand was weak, and traders were cautious in procurement. In ports, the inventory of northern ports decreased rapidly recently, and due to the inverted shipping cost, upstream suppliers were less willing to sell at low prices. Indonesia reduced its coal production quota for 2026 and will retroactively collect this year's tariffs [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The daily consumption of thermal coal has improved, and the supply in the production area is gradually recovering. The coal price is oscillating strongly. In the long term, the supply - loose pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and replenishment of non - thermal coal [7]. - **Strategy**: Not provided in the content

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 9 日星期五 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周四主力合约期货BZ2603价格下跌29元至5436元/吨，华东主流地区现货价格5340 | | | | | 元/吨（环比+35），山东地区现货价格 5212 元/吨（环比+2）。持仓方面，多头持 | | | | | 仓增加 425 手至 1.98 万手，空头持仓增加 646 至 2.54 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，12 月国内纯苯产量 193.4 万吨，同比+1.3%。11 月纯苯进口量 45.96 | | | | | 万吨，环比-7.4%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：31.8 万吨，较上期库存 3 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean oil futures price shows signs of stabilizing and rebounding after previous adjustments and may continue the volatile upward trend in the short - term. Considering the current pre - Spring Festival stocking cycle with weak demand and reduced supply - side压榨量, the soybean oil market may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On January 6, 2026, the opening price of the main soybean oil futures contract (Y.DCE) on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 7,868.0 yuan/ton, the highest price was 7,928.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 7,866.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 7,912.0 yuan/ton, a 0.71% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 263,014 lots, the trading value was 20.77839 billion yuan, and the latest open interest was 621,847 lots [2] 3.2现货市场 - On January 6, 2026, the basis of the main soybean oil futures contract was 518.0 yuan/ton. With the futures closing price at 7,912.0 yuan/ton, the spot price was higher than the futures price, showing a pattern of strong spot and weak futures [5] 3.3影响因素 - **产业资讯**: Affected by the international market, the soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose on January 5, providing some support for domestic soybean oil futures. On January 6, the mainstream reference price of domestic first - grade soybean oil was 8,420 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan increase from the previous working day, with a 0.48% increase. On that day, the oil mill operating rate was about 52.29%. Last week, the domestic soybean crushing volume was 1.88 million tons, a 220,000 - ton decrease from the previous week and a 100,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. Since January 1, 2026, the pilot policy of verified deduction of input VAT on agricultural products in the soybean oil processing industry has been stopped [6] - **技术分析**: In the past month, the soybean oil futures price showed a pattern of volatile decline followed by a stable rebound. The price was around 8,230 yuan/ton at the beginning of December, then declined to a low of 7,712 yuan/ton on December 19, and gradually stabilized and rebounded. The closing price on January 6 was 7,912 yuan/ton, a rebound of about 2.6% from the previous low, indicating short - term price stabilization [7] 3.4行情展望 - **技术面预期**: After the previous adjustment, the soybean oil futures price shows signs of stabilizing and rebounding and may continue the volatile upward trend in the short - term [10] - **基本面展望**: The current market is in the pre - Spring Festival stocking cycle, but the demand is weak and the spot market trading is light. The reduction in the supply - side压榨量 provides some support for prices. Overall, the soybean oil market may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment for aluminum has cooled, the supply surplus of alumina remains unchanged, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 23,725 yuan, down 635 yuan from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 3,088 dollars, up 102 dollars from a week ago. The trading volume and open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased. The LME canceled warrant ratio was 10.66%, down 0.36% from the previous trading day [1] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,863 yuan, down 75 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume decreased, while the open interest increased [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 22,585 yuan, down 450 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume and open interest increased [1] Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was 718,000 tons, up 15,000 tons from the previous trading day. The SHFE aluminum ingot warrant was 90,200 tons, up 2,300 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 499,800 tons, down 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [1] - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 2,693 yuan, down 2 yuan from the previous trading day. The CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was 334 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The three - place inventory totaled 44,082 tons, down 257 tons from the previous trading day [1] Other Information - 1000 enterprises are suing the US government, demanding the refund of 133 billion dollars in tariffs, and the US Supreme Court may make a final decision this week, which has a profound impact on global supply chains and trade policies [3] - The annual re - balancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) starts after the market on January 8th and lasts until the 14th. TD Securities predicts that 7.7 billion dollars of silver sell - off will flood the market in the next two weeks, which may cause a significant price correction. Aluminum is among the commodities under relatively large re - balancing selling pressure [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The inland price has bottomed out, and the port is trading on significant inventory reduction. However, the pre - condition for significant inventory reduction is high MTO开工. Currently, MTO profit is average, which restricts the upside of methanol. There are expected to be 2 - 3 Venezuelan ships per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Pay attention to subsequent developments. In the short term, shipments may remain normal. Also, monitor the change in oil prices. The upside of methanol is limited because other downstream sectors are weak, but if oil prices boost other sectors, the upside may be unlocked [2]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina (two - oil) is neutral year - on - year. Upstream two - oil and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, social inventory is flat, downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of September maintenance is flat month - on - month, and the recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is significant, so focus on the commissioning of new plants [6]. - **Polypropylene**: The upstream two - oil and mid - stream inventories are reducing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventories of mid - and upstream are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, focus on the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have slightly declined. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support the price of high - grade caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [7]. 3. Data Summaries Methanol | Date |动力煤期货|江苏现货|华南现货|鲁南折盘面|西南折盘面|河北折盘面|西北折盘面|CFR中国|CFR东南亚|进口利润|主力基差|盘面MTO利润| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/31 | 801 | 2210 | 2193 | 2345 | 2450 | 2315 | 2430 | 258 | 320 | 1 | - 25 | - | | 2026/01/05 | 801 | 2233 | 2205 | 2350 | - | 2315 | 2448 | 258 | 320 | 25 | - 2 | - | | 2026/01/06 | 801 | 2275 | 2248 | 2350 | - | 2345 | 2450 | 266 | 322 | 22 | 10 | - | | 2026/01/07 | 801 | 2285 | 2250 | 2350 | - | 2345 | 2443 | 268 | 322 | 8 | 0 | - | | 2026/01/08 | 801 | 2230 | 2220 | 2340 | - | 2345 | 2448 | - | - | - | - 10 | - | |日度变化| 0 | - 55 | - 30 | - 10 | - | 0 | 5 | - | - | - | - 10 | - | [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) | Date |东北亚乙烯|华北LL|华东LL|华东LD|华东HD|LL美金|LL美湾|进口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/31 | 745 | 6300 | 6575 | 8325 | 6850 | 740 | 786 | 231 | 6472 | - 170 | 63 | 11353 | | 2026/01/05 | 745 | 6300 | 6625 | 8700 | 6900 | 740 | 786 | 281 | 6449 | - 180 | - | 11350 | | 2026/01/06 | 745 | 6400 | 6625 | 8775 | 6900 | 740 | 786 | 285 | 6579 | - 160 | - | 11324 | | 2026/01/07 | 745 | 6480 | 6625 | 8800 | 6900 | 765 | 786 | 68 | 6642 | - 160 | - | 11540 | | 2026/01/08 | - | 6480 | 6700 | 8925 | 6950 | - | - | - | 6628 | - 160 | - | 11365 | |日度变化| - | 0 | 75 | 125 | 50 | - | - | - | - 14 | 0 | - | - 175 | [6] Polypropylene | Date |山东丙烯|东北亚丙烯|华东PP|华北PP|山东粉料|华东共聚|PP美金|PP美湾|出口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/31 | 5680 | 710 | 6140 | 6110 | 6060 | 6394 | 765 | 820 | - 9 | 6348 | - 200 | 63 | 15445 | | 2026/01/05 | 5730 | 710 | 6210 | 6165 | 6120 | 6460 | 765 | 830 | - 16 | 6330 | - 150 | - | 15445 | | 2026/01/06 | 5770 | 710 | 6180 | 6185 | 6120 | 6506 | 765 | 830 | - 19 | 6423 | - 200 | - | 15465 | | 2026/01/07 | 5770 | 710 | 6240 | 6230 | 6180 | 6534 | 770 | - | - | 6486 | - 200 | - | 15465 | | 2026/01/08 | 5800 | 710 | 6315 | 6283 | 6250 | 6534 | - | - | - | 6484 | - 200 | - | 15465 | |日度变化| 30 | 0 | 75 | 53 | 70 | 0 | - | - | - | - 2 | 0 | - | 0 | [7] PVC | Date |西北电石|山东烧碱|电石法 - 华东|乙烯法 - 华东|电石法 - 华南|电石法 - 西北|进口美金价（CFR中国）|出口利润|西北综合利润|华北综合利润|基差(高端交割品)| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/31 | 2300 | 717 | 4600 | - | - | 4180 | 640 | 126 | - | - | - 260 | | 2026/01/05 | 2300 | 715 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | 640 | 139 | - | - | - 250 | | 2026/01/06 | 2300 | 715 | 4660 | - | - | 4230 | 640 | 69 | - | - | - 250 | | 2026/01/07 | 2350 | 715 | 4730 | - | - | 4330 | - | - | - | - | - 250 | | 2026/01/08 | 2400 | 715 | 4710 | - | - | 4350 | - | - | - | - | - 250 | |日度变化| 50 | 0 | - 20 | - | - | 20 | - | - | - | - | 0 | [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend analyses and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, and others, based on current market dynamics, geopolitical situations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][11]. - For some commodities, such as PX, PTA, and short - term urea, they are in a state of high - level or short - term oscillation, with specific influencing factors analyzed for each [11][48]. - For other commodities, the report points out potential risks and opportunities, like the high valuation of styrene and the need to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [50]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Dynamics**: International oil prices rose due to geopolitical uncertainties. PX prices fell, PTA load was at 78.2%, and MEG domestic production was at a high level [6][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: PX trend intensity is 1, PTA is 1, and MEG is 0 [11]. - **Views and Suggestions**: PX is in a unilateral high - level oscillation market, and attention should be paid to positive spreads. PTA is also in a high - level oscillation market, and MEG's medium - term trend is weak [11][12]. Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in futures prices, trading volumes, and positions. Spot prices were relatively stable, and import prices increased slightly [14]. - **Industry News**: Domestic production areas were at the end of the rubber - tapping season. Overseas raw material prices rose, and port inventories increased as expected [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Rubber trend intensity is 0 [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and positions changed. Spot prices, such as butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber, increased [17]. - **Industry News**: Butadiene port inventories decreased, and synthetic rubber inventories decreased slightly. Short - term butadiene and synthetic rubber may run strongly [18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Synthetic rubber trend intensity is 1 [19]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell slightly, and basis and spreads changed. Spot prices were relatively stable [20]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: Raw material prices were stable, and PE process profits improved. Supply and demand pressure remained in the medium - term [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: LLDPE trend intensity is 0 [22]. PP - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices changed slightly, and basis and spreads were relatively stable. Spot prices were mostly unchanged [23]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: Cost was strong, and there was a valuation difference between PE and PP. Supply and demand were in a game, and attention should be paid to PDH device changes [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: PP trend intensity is 0 [25]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices and basis were provided [26]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The previous rebound was difficult to sustain, and it was in a high - production and high - inventory pattern with weak demand [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Caustic soda trend intensity is - 1 [30]. Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes and positions increased. Spot prices were relatively stable [34]. - **Industry News**: The futures market was active, and the spot market was stable. The overall supply and demand changed little [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pulp trend intensity is 0 [34]. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices rose, and basis and spreads changed. Spot prices were stable [38]. - **Spot News**: Domestic glass prices were mostly stable, and enterprise sales were average [38]. - **Trend Intensity**: Glass trend intensity is 0 [38]. Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes decreased. Spot prices were regionally adjusted [41]. - **Spot News**: The domestic methanol market was regionally adjusted, and port inventories continued to accumulate [43]. - **Trend Intensity**: Methanol trend intensity is 0 [44]. Urea - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell slightly, and trading volumes decreased. Spot prices were mostly stable [46]. - **Industry News**: Enterprise inventories were basically flat, and the market entered a short - term oscillation pattern [47][48]. - **Trend Intensity**: Urea trend intensity is 0 [48]. Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices changed, and basis and spreads were provided. Spot prices were at a high level [49]. - **Spot News**: The current valuation is high, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [50]. - **Trend Intensity**: Styrene trend intensity is 0 [49]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices rose slightly, and basis and spreads changed. Spot prices were stable [54]. - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market rose slightly, with high supply and weak demand [54]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soda ash trend intensity is 0 [54]. LPG and Propylene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices changed, and trading volumes and positions were provided. PDH and MTBE operating rates were also given [57]. - **Market Information**: CP paper prices fell, and there were domestic device maintenance plans [62]. - **Trend Intensity**: LPG trend intensity is 0, and propylene trend intensity is 0 [61]. PVC - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices and basis were provided. Social inventories increased [65]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The market was in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and it was in a weak oscillation [65]. - **Trend Intensity**: PVC trend intensity is - 1 [66]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices rose, and trading volumes and positions changed. Spot prices and spreads were provided [68]. - **Trend Intensity**: Fuel oil trend intensity is 0, and low - sulfur fuel oil trend intensity is 0 [68]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes and positions changed. Freight rates and exchange rates were provided [70]. - **Macro News**: There were geopolitical events such as Trump's threat to Iran and Yemen's personnel changes [78]. - **Trend Intensity**: Container Freight Index (European Line) trend intensity is 1 [83]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and trading volumes and positions changed. Spot prices were stable [84]. - **Spot News**: Short - fiber futures adjusted weakly, and bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly stable [84][85]. - **Trend Intensity**: Short - fiber trend intensity is 0, and bottle - chip trend intensity is 0 [85]. Offset Printing Paper - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices were stable, and cost - profit data changed slightly. Futures prices fell [87]. - **Industry News**: Market prices in Shandong and Guangdong were stable, and demand was weak [88][90]. - **Trend Intensity**: Offset printing paper trend intensity is - 1 [87]. Pure Benzene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices fell, and port inventories increased [91]. - **News**: Pure benzene port inventories increased, and spot prices rose [92][93]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pure benzene trend intensity is 0 [91].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of methanol 2605 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak. It is expected to run weakly [1][5] - The pre - holiday overseas supply "hard contraction" was the key factor supporting the upward movement of methanol prices. The supply in Iran, a major import source, is severely disrupted. The reduction of domestic port methanol inventory led to the recovery of port spot prices, strengthening the basis and boosting bullish sentiment. After the previous positive factors were digested, and with the high - level correction of domestic coal futures prices, methanol futures showed an oscillatory and weak trend on Thursday night and may maintain this pattern on Friday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol 2605 Analysis - Short - term: oscillatory [1] - Medium - term: oscillatory [1] - Intraday: weak [1] - View reference: weak operation [1] - Core logic: coal price decline leads to the oscillatory and weak trend of methanol [1] Methanol (MA) Price and Market Analysis - Intraday view: weak [5] - Medium - term view: oscillatory [5] - Reference view: weak operation [5] - Core logic: pre - holiday overseas supply contraction, supply disruption in Iran, inventory reduction at domestic ports, and then the digestion of positive factors and coal price correction [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆期价震荡回落，中国采购、巴西大豆丰产等因素继续影响美豆。下周一美农报告发布前， 资金避险情绪升温。国内油厂和贸易商挺价意愿明显，下游滚动拿货。短期关注进口大豆的拍卖消息对豆 类市场情绪的影响。随着加拿大总理将于下周访华的消息释放，中加贸易成为关注焦点，市场对远期菜籽 供应改善的预期施压菜粕和菜油期价，对临池豆粕期价形成拖累。短期豆粕震荡偏弱运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On January 8, equity index futures diverged, CGB futures rose, and most commodities declined, with PS and EC leading the losses [2][11] - The supply - demand balance for polysilicon remains relatively loose, and the price trend is in a tug - of - war between weak fundamentals and industry price - supporting actions [18][19] - Platinum prices were pressured by profit - taking and a strengthening dollar, and geopolitical risks may exacerbate volatility. The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase [24][26] - Palladium supply is disrupted by the Russian geopolitical issue, and although long - term supply - demand eases, short - term prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [30][32] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On January 8, in equity index futures, IM rose 0.7% while IF dropped 0.7%; in CGB, TL rose 0.37% and T rose 0.15% [11] - Among commodity futures, the top three gainers were Coking Coal (up 4.8% with open interest down 1.5% month - on - month), Glass (up 2.6% with open interest up 6.4% month - on - month), and Coke (up 2.6% with open interest down 1.3% month - on - month) [12][13] - The top three losers were Polysilicon (down 9.0% with open interest dropping 14.4% month - on - month), SCFIS（Europe）(down 9.0% with open interest down 8.3% month - on - month), and Platinum (down 6.7% with open interest decreasing 2.4% month - on - month) [13][14] 1.2 Daily Dropped 1.2.1 Poly - Silicon - On January 8, Poly - Silicon dropped 9.0% to 53610 yuan per ton. Futures fell sharply with multiple contracts hitting the daily limit down in the afternoon [17][19] - The supply - demand balance is loose, but both upstream and downstream have strong price - supporting willingness. Supply may adjust with demand, and demand from the downstream provides limited support [18][19] 1.2.2 Platinum - On January 8, Platinum dropped by 6.7% to 575 yuan per gram [23][26] - Affected by profit - taking and a strengthening dollar, the precious metals sector retreated, and geopolitical risks may exacerbate price volatility. The price spread between domestic and international markets has narrowed [24][26] - The supply side in South Africa faces risks, and the demand side is in a structural expansion phase with multiple growth drivers [25][26] 1.2.3 Palladium - On January 8, Palladium dropped by 3.6% to 460.7 yuan per gram [29][31] - The Russian geopolitical issue disrupts supply, and demand is under structural pressure. Short - term spot shortages keep prices firm, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [30][32] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - MOFCOM will assess whether Meta's acquisition of Manus complies with relevant Chinese laws and regulations on export control, technology import and export, and overseas investment [37][39] - MFA stated that the US arbitrary seizure of foreign vessels on the high seas seriously violates international law [38][39] 2.2 Industry News - In 2025, China's national futures market recorded a cumulative trading volume of 9.074 billion lots and a cumulative turnover of 766.25 trillion yuan, representing year - on - year growth of 17.4% and 23.74% respectively [40][41]

Core Insights - The Chinese futures market showed significant growth in December, with a trading volume of 9.51 billion contracts and a turnover of 90.81 trillion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 45.17% and 58.55% respectively [1] - By the end of 2025, the cumulative trading volume is projected to reach 90.74 billion contracts and a turnover of 766.25 trillion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 17.4% and 23.74% [1] Trading Volume and Turnover by Exchange - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) is expected to have a trading volume of approximately 23.35 billion contracts and a turnover of about 259 trillion yuan by 2025, with year-on-year growth of 3.31% and 27.86% [1] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) is projected to achieve a trading volume of around 31.38 billion contracts and a turnover of approximately 88.96 trillion yuan, with year-on-year increases of 20.26% and 4.47% [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) is anticipated to have a trading volume of about 26.07 billion contracts and a turnover of around 102.77 trillion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 14.94% and 4.49% [1] - The China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX) is expected to reach a trading volume of approximately 3.04 billion contracts and a turnover of about 255.19 trillion yuan, with year-on-year increases of 19.94% and 33.66% [1] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE) is projected to have a trading volume of around 5.34 billion contracts and a turnover of approximately 31.60 trillion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 171.62% and 190.27% [1] Leading Products by Trading Volume and Turnover - In December, the top three products by turnover at SHFE were silver futures, gold futures, and copper futures [2] - The leading products by turnover at ZCE included PTA futures, caustic soda futures, and glass futures [2] - The DCE's top products by turnover were coking coal futures, palm oil futures, and soybean meal futures [2] - GFE's leading products by turnover included lithium carbonate futures, polysilicon futures, and platinum futures [2] - CFFEX's top products by turnover were CSI 1000 index futures, CSI 500 index futures, and 30-year treasury bond futures [2] Market Drivers and Trends - The growth in the futures market is attributed to increased hedging demand from industrial enterprises due to factors such as fluctuating U.S. tariffs, a loose global monetary policy environment, rising geopolitical risks, and domestic economic adjustments [3] - The influx of long-term capital into the capital market, particularly from insurance funds, has also contributed to the increased hedging demand [3] - The recovery of operational conditions in the real economy, especially in new sectors like renewable energy and AI, has boosted optimism regarding the demand for new energy materials [3] - The introduction of 18 new futures and options products covering various sectors has enhanced the product system of the market [3] Performance of Commodity Markets - The commodity market experienced more declines than increases last year, with precious metals continuing to rise for the fourth consecutive year; gold and silver prices increased by 55.77% and 124.62% respectively [4] - The non-ferrous metals sector also performed strongly, with copper and tin prices rising by 33.18% and 29.01% respectively [4] - The energy and chemical sector, however, faced challenges, with crude oil prices declining by 10.98% [4] Future Outlook - The futures market is expected to continue its high-quality development, with anticipated growth in trading volume and turnover of 10% to 15% this year [4] - New products like coking coal options are expected to be launched, further expanding the market's service scope [4] - The demand for hedging from real enterprises is projected to increase due to ongoing global commodity price volatility and geopolitical risks [4]