氧化铝期货继续下跌，过剩预期仍存，机构分析表示，目前运行产能处于历史高位偏过剩状态，政策预 期驱动大幅冲高后需警惕回调风险。 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bullish sentiment for polysilicon remains strong, with expectations of continued price increases driven by policy support and market dynamics [1][2][3] - Polysilicon futures saw a significant increase, reaching a limit up of 10.42%, indicating a strong market reaction and potential for further gains [1] - The supply side is stable with slight production increases in certain regions, while overall industry production is expected to grow, although demand remains weak [2][3] Group 2 - The market sentiment is primarily driven by policy expectations rather than fundamental supply-demand dynamics, which remain loose [2][3] - There is a recommendation for traders to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy, as the market is currently experiencing high bullish sentiment [3] - Attention should be paid to the performance of futures contracts, particularly the long-term contracts, which are expected to show overall strength [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: July 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The macro atmosphere remains strongly positive, with the black series commodities and ferrosilicon reaching their daily limit on the 22nd. Driven by the optimistic sentiment, the aluminum industry chain continues to be strong. Alumina prices have risen significantly by over 6%, reaching a new high for the year, while Shanghai aluminum has shown relatively stable performance. Currently in the traditional off-season, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, and the demand side is still affected by the off-season. The overall fundamentals of aluminum have not changed significantly, and the current strength is mainly supported by policy expectations, following the general upward trend of the sector. The upside space is temporarily limited, and in the short term, it is expected to remain strong, with attention paid to the resistance level near the previous high [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Macro atmosphere drives the aluminum industry chain to remain strong. Alumina prices have risen significantly, while Shanghai aluminum has shown relatively stable performance. The 2509 contract of Shanghai aluminum has risen by 0.75% to 20,900 yuan/ton, and the total open interest of the index has increased by 19,572 to 694,390 lots. The premium between the 08 and 09 contracts has narrowed by 5 to 25, and the AD-AL negative spread is reported at -490. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, and the demand side is still affected by the off-season. The start-up rate of the aluminum processing sector remains low, and the high absolute price of aluminum is expected to have a negative impact on terminal consumption. The average profit of aluminum smelting remains at a high level of over 4,200 yuan/ton. Overall, the fundamentals of aluminum have not changed significantly, and the current strength is mainly supported by policy expectations, following the general upward trend of the sector. The upside space is temporarily limited, and in the short term, it is expected to remain strong, with attention paid to the resistance level near the previous high [8] 2. Industry News - China's primary aluminum production in June 2025 was 3.81 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Due to the start of the second-phase replacement of electrolytic aluminum from Shandong to Yunnan, the production of the original plant was reduced, resulting in a slight month-on-month decrease in production. In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, and the second-phase replacement project in Yunnan has been put into operation, leading to a recovery in the industry's start-up rate [9][10] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has emphasized the importance of promoting the stable, healthy, and high-quality development of the real estate market. Local governments are required to take responsibility, make full use of their autonomy in real estate regulation policies, and implement targeted measures to stabilize the market [10] - Alcoa has announced that the restart of its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain has been postponed to mid-2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million. The restart was originally in progress but was delayed due to a nationwide power outage in Spain in April. After reviewing the government's report on the power outage and receiving commitments on grid reliability and energy competitiveness, the joint venture has decided to resume the restart project [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term. The market for these commodities shows a pattern of strong supply - demand dynamics, but is also subject to various influencing factors such as policies, production capacity, and profit margins [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Steel - **Price and Basis**: On Tuesday, the futures price of rebar continued to rise significantly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3,420 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of the 10 - contract was 113 (-33) [1]. - **Fundamentals**: According to the Steel Union's statistics, the recent apparent demand for rebar decreased by 153,300 tons month - on - month, production decreased by 76,000 tons, and inventory increased by 28,900 tons. The contradiction in the off - season demand is not obvious, and supply and demand remain relatively balanced [1]. - **Outlook**: The futures price of rebar has risen to near the cost of electric arc furnaces at flat electricity prices, and the static valuation has been restored to a neutral level. In terms of driving factors, macroscopically, attention should be paid to whether there are relevant policy signals at the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. Industrially, the current supply - demand is balanced, and attention should be paid to the implementation of crude steel production restrictions. It is expected that the price will oscillate with an upward bias. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and focus on the opportunity of going long on the spot and short on the futures [1]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Price and Basis**: On Tuesday, the futures price of iron ore rose significantly. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 798 yuan/wet ton (+13). The Platts 62% index was 104.85 US dollars/ton (+1.90), with a monthly average of 97.91 US dollars/ton. The basis of PBF was 22 yuan/ton (0) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2.479 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19.3. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22.60737 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 138.16. The daily output of hot metal of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.63. The supply side has not changed significantly, while the demand side is relatively strong [1]. - **Outlook**: The Sino - US trade friction has eased, and the tariff truce period may be further extended. The futures price is starting to recover to the level before the friction. With the increasing policy expectations for the end - of - month meeting, the iron ore futures price has reached a new high in stages. It is expected that the price will oscillate with an upward bias [1]. 3.3. Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the production areas are restricted by accidents and underground conditions, and the production release rhythm is still slow. The overall supply recovery process of coking coal has not met expectations. In terms of imports, driven by the sharp rise in the domestic futures market, Mongolian coal traders are optimistic, and the prices of mainstream coal types such as Mongolian 5 raw coal have risen significantly [3]. - **Demand**: The second round of coke price increases has been implemented, and with macro - level positive stimuli, the futures market of the black series has risen sharply. Coke enterprises and traders are actively transporting, and coal mine sales are generally smooth. Steel mills' profitability has improved, production enthusiasm is high, and the rigid demand remains strong. However, downstream enterprises are a bit cautious about purchasing high - priced coal, and the inventory - increasing rhythm is still restricted to some extent [3]. - **Port Situation**: Affected by the policy documents from the production areas and the futures limit - up, the market sentiment is high. Futures - cash combined traders have mostly suspended quoting prices and are holding back goods [3]. - **Outlook**: The current coking coal market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. The supply side recovers slowly, and the demand side is driven by coke price increases and improved profits of finished products. The short - term price support is strong. Attention should be paid to the coal mine复产 progress, the sustainability of coke price increases, and the steel mills' profit situation [3]. 3.4. Coke - **Supply**: Recently, coke enterprises in the production areas have successively launched a second - round price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Driven by the sharp rise in the black - series futures market, the price of coking coal has also risen, and the immediate cost of coke enterprises has increased significantly. However, the rise of coke prices lags behind, resulting in a continuous compression of the profit margins of most coke enterprises, and some are in a state of inversion. There may be a further reduction in production in the future [3]. - **Demand**: With the continuous rise of steel prices, steel mills' profitability has improved, production enthusiasm is high, and the rigid demand for coke remains strong. However, steel mills in the southwest region are affected by the sales pressure of finished products, with weak terminal demand and narrow profit margins. Some enterprises may even face losses and may have maintenance plans in the future [3]. - **Outlook**: The current coke market shows obvious supply - demand game characteristics. The supply side is restricted by cost squeeze and profit inversion, and the demand side has different acceptance levels for price increases due to regional differentiation and profit limitations. In the short term, the implementation rhythm of the second - round price increase may be affected by the steel mills' profit repair progress and regional demand differentiation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of coke enterprises' production, the sustainability of steel mills' profit improvement, and the terminal demand for steel [3]. 3.5. Industry News - From July 14th to July 20th, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.4245 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 315,000 tons. The inventory has increased for three consecutive periods and has reached the peak since the beginning of the year [6]. - In June 2025, the total energy consumption of member enterprises of the China Iron and Steel Association decreased by 3.57% year - on - year; the comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel increased by 1.82% year - on - year; the comparable energy consumption per ton of steel increased by 1.96% year - on - year; and the power consumption per ton of steel increased by 4.27% year - on - year [6]. - In August 2025, the production plan for household air conditioners was 1.1155 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1%. Among them, the domestic sales production plan was 651,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%; the export production plan was 464,500 units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5% [6]. - On July 22nd, a notice about "coal mine production verification" circulated in the market. The Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration has issued a notice to organize a verification of coal mine production in eight provinces (regions) including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia to ensure stable and orderly coal supply. The content of the notice is true, but the start time of the verification is uncertain [6]. - The hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River is expected to have an installed capacity 2.7 times that of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station. It is estimated that the cement demand will be more than 40 million tons and the sand and gravel aggregate demand will be about 150 million tons [6].

Group 1 - The recent stock and bond market dynamics show a "see-saw" effect, with strong policy expectations and a rising stock market putting pressure on the bond market [1] - The bond market experienced a brief rebound due to the disconfirmation of housing reform expectations and weak economic data, but renewed policy expectations led to a decline in bond prices [1][2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been actively managing short-term liquidity, with significant net injections to counter tax period funding demands, resulting in a more favorable environment for short-term bonds [2] Group 2 - The focus of urban development in China is shifting from large-scale expansion to urban renewal, emphasizing safety and quality improvements rather than merely increasing housing supply [3] - The economic growth rate for Q2 was slightly down to 5.2%, with structural and price weaknesses persisting, indicating a need for careful monitoring of policy impacts on economic stability [5][6] - Consumer spending remains weak, and real estate investment is still in a bottoming phase, suggesting that the overall economic momentum lacks elasticity despite a stable economic backdrop [6] Group 3 - The upcoming implementation of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's ten key industry growth plans is expected to exert continuous pressure on the bond market [2][6] - The market anticipates that the upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting will likely focus on maintaining existing policies rather than introducing new incremental policies, which may further influence market sentiment [5][6] - The bond market's fundamental direction remains unchanged, with a cautious outlook on the potential for further adjustments in response to evolving economic conditions and policy expectations [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different commodities and financial products affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. Different investment strategies are recommended for different products based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [1][2][3] Commodity Summaries Energy - **Crude Oil**: EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia tightens price limits, but impact on supply is uncertain. In July, trade - war risks are greater than geopolitical benefits, and oil prices may turn to a volatile and pressured trend [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - low sulfur spread continues to decline. The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia boosts FU, while LU follows crude oil, but its increase has been less than SC since mid - July [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas markets are weak, but domestic PDH demand is strong. With weak supply and demand, domestic gas may stabilize, and the market is expected to be in low - level oscillation [23] - **Urea**: Affected by policy news, the market is bullish. Production enterprises are de - stocking, and supply is sufficient. With expected growth in industrial demand and export progress, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and bullish [24] - **Methanol**: Boosted by policy, it is bullish at night. Import arrivals increase, and ports are rapidly stocking. Some enterprises may postpone maintenance, and attention should be paid to macro - level impacts [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The macro - sentiment is positive, but the upward drive for gold is limited. With high uncertainty before the US tariff policy deadline and a weakening dollar outlook, precious metals are in wide - range oscillation, and the gold - silver ratio has room to decline [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices continued to rise. Social inventories decreased rapidly over the weekend. Resistance at the upper integer level is strong, and the 2508 option portfolio should be held until expiration this week [3] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed non - ferrous metals in a strong and oscillating trend. Aluminum ingot inventories increased, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with resistance around 21,000 yuan [4] - **Alumina**: Overnight, it remained strong. With low warehouse receipts and high industry operating rates, after a sharp increase driven by policy expectations, there is a risk of correction [5] - **Zinc**: Driven by the "anti - involution" policy, zinc prices broke through the bottom consolidation. However, with increasing supply pressure, attention should be paid to downstream acceptance and the entry of hedging positions [7] - **Lead**: Primary lead smelters are reducing production, and the cost support is strong. In the context of weak supply and demand, it is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded significantly. With weakening upstream price support and high overall inventory, it is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short - selling opportunities should be awaited [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices oscillated at a high level. With a decrease in imports from Congo and an increase from Myanmar, it is recommended to hold or increase short positions in far - month contracts [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillated and rose. With increasing total inventory and a rebound in Australian ore prices, the upward space is limited, and short - sellers should manage their positions [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by an accident in the organic silicon supply, prices rose significantly. With increasing demand and limited supply, it is expected to oscillate and strengthen [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price strengthened. With cost transfer and limited terminal demand acceptance, short - term observation is recommended [13] Ferrous Metals - **Steel Products** - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - trading steel prices oscillated narrowly. Rebar demand declined, and hot - rolled coil demand was resilient. With low inventory and positive market sentiment, the market is expected to remain strong [14] - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures price oscillated. With increasing global shipments and high iron - making production, it is expected to be strong in the short term [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Prices continued to rise. With sufficient carbon supply and high iron - making production, they are expected to follow steel prices and remain strong in the short term [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon prices adjusted slightly after a high opening. With decreasing inventory and increasing demand expectations, it follows rebar prices. Ferrosilicon prices opened high, with overall good demand and a slight increase in supply, also following rebar prices [18][19] Chemicals - **Pure Benzene**: Night - trading prices oscillated. With a slight increase in domestic production and a decrease in port inventory, it is recommended to operate in monthly spreads, with a positive spread strategy in the short - to - medium term and a negative spread in the fourth quarter [26] - **Styrene**: Driven by macro - news, the trading sentiment improved. With expected increases in both supply and demand and continued inventory accumulation, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short term [27] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Driven by the macro - environment, the market sentiment improved slightly, but the fundamentals are weak. In the consumption off - season, downstream procurement is cautious, and there is pressure to destock [27] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Affected by the policy of eliminating backward production capacity, PVC showed a strong trend. Caustic soda was also strong under macro - influence. Attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity - elimination policies [28] - **PX & PTA**: Night - trading prices oscillated. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and demand dragged down PX. The processing margin of PTA has room for repair [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: With limited policy impact and weak downstream demand, it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy in the short term, paying attention to the previous high - point pressure [30] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: They followed PTA and closed with a doji. Short - fiber is expected to be long - positioned in the medium term, while bottle - grade chip has limited profit - repair drivers due to over - capacity [31] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybean优良率decreased slightly, and with uncertainties in trade and weather, soybean meal is expected to oscillate before the situation becomes clear [35] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Affected by weather, policy, and supply - demand factors, a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended, with short - term attention to weather and policy guidance [36] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: With potential changes in import trade and seasonal demand, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - **Corn**: US corn auction results were poor, and Dalian corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom [39] - **Livestock and Poultry** - **Hogs**: Affected by policies, the futures price rose significantly. However, with sufficient future supply, industrial players can participate in short - hedging at high prices [40] - **Eggs**: Small - egg prices decreased, while large - egg prices increased. The spot price is in a seasonal rebound, and the futures market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [41] - **Others** - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Chinese cotton prices corrected. With tight supply and potential short - squeeze, it is recommended to wait and see [42] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices oscillated, and domestic sugar sales are fast with low inventory. Considering weather and production uncertainties, sugar prices are expected to oscillate [43] - **Apples**: Futures prices oscillated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and attention should be paid to price changes and new - season yield estimates [44] - **Wood**: Futures prices rebounded. With low - level spot prices, low port arrivals, and inventory, but weak domestic demand, it is recommended to wait and see [45] - **Pulp**: Prices continued to rise. With high port inventory and weak demand, it is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [46] Financial Products Summaries Stock Index - The stock market opened higher and continued to rise. The futures index contracts all closed up, with IC leading the gain. The market risk preference is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short term, and technology - growth stocks are recommended for additional allocation [47] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures closed with oscillation. The central bank's policy may inject implicit liquidity, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report From July 14th to July 18th, the US inflation data was mixed, with the CPI in June higher than expected and the PPI lower than expected. The independence of the Federal Reserve attracted market attention, and the US dollar index continued to rise weekly. Globally, stocks and commodities rose, while the bond market declined. In China, exports increased year - on - year in June, imports turned positive, and new social financing and RMB loans increased year - on - year. The gap between M2 and M1 narrowed. The stock, bond, and commodity markets all rose weekly. Overall, commodities > stocks > bonds. The market has high expectations for the industry structural optimization brought by the "anti - involution" policy, and the atmosphere in the risk - asset market is positive. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in policy expectations [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Global Major Asset Performance - **Global Stock Market**: Most global major stock markets rose. Asia - Pacific markets led the gains, European stocks performed poorly, and emerging markets outperformed developed markets. The VIX index remained low weekly [8]. - **Global Bond Market**: The impact of tariffs on US inflation was reflected in the data. The yields of medium - and long - term US bonds showed a divergent trend. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose 1BP weekly to 4.44%, and the bond market declined weekly. Globally, credit bonds > high - yield bonds > government bonds [15]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: The US economy remained resilient, the US dollar index rose weekly by 0.60%, most major non - US currencies depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate declined slightly [16]. - **Global Commodity Market**: The EU's new round of sanctions on Russia lowered the price cap on Russian oil, causing international oil prices to decline weekly. The prices of major agricultural products and non - ferrous metals rose, and precious metals fluctuated at high levels [18]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance - **Domestic Stock Market**: Policy expectations continued to ferment, and major A - share broad - based indexes generally rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. Growth - style stocks performed prominently. Among sectors, communication and medicine led the gains, while comprehensive finance and real estate underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69% weekly [21]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 120.11 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively stable, and the bond market fluctuated slightly upward weekly. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [22]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market continued to rise weekly. Among major commodity sectors, oils and fats led the gains [23]. 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook The market has strong expectations for the industry structural optimization brought by the "anti - involution" policy, and the atmosphere in the risk - asset market is currently positive. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in policy expectations [24].

期货热点追踪 低仓单叠加政策预期推动，氧化铝期价触及涨停，机构分析表示，商品整体做多氛围亢奋，叠加氧化铝 较低的仓单注册量，驱动氧化铝期价短期偏强。 相关链接 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends for various commodities. Some are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, while others are influenced by policy expectations and external factors such as tariffs and international market trends [1][2][3][5] 3. Summary by Commodity **Stock Index Futures** - On July 18, A - share major indices rose slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% to 3534.48, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37% to 10913.84, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.34% to 2277.15. The trading volume in the two markets reached 1571.1 billion yuan, an increase of 31.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4058.55, up 24.06 [1] **Coke and Coking Coal** - Coke: On July 18, the weighted coke index was strongly consolidated, closing at 1527.0, up 19.2. The coking coal price increase led to a decline in coking enterprise profits and insufficient production enthusiasm, resulting in a continuous decline in daily coke output. Although the molten iron in the off - season decreased slightly, the absolute level was at a high point in the year, supporting the daily consumption of furnace materials. The coke inventory of coking enterprises decreased, and the market was optimistic with expectations of price increases [1] - Coking Coal: On July 18, the weighted coking coal index remained strong, closing at 943.2 yuan, up 23.8. Some coal mines had limited production due to underground reasons, and the supply recovery was slow. During the Nadam Fair, Mongolian coal imports were restricted, and the port inventory decreased. As spot transactions improved, coke - steel enterprises increased their inventories, and the futures price fluctuated strongly [2] **Zhengzhou Sugar** - The news that Coca - Cola changed its formula to use cane sugar in the US market supported the futures price. The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract rose slightly on July 18. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 392,300 tons year - on - year. From January to June 2025, China imported 1.0508 million tons of sugar, a decrease of 251,200 tons or 19.29% year - on - year. As of July 15, speculators reduced their short positions in ICE US raw sugar futures for the second consecutive week [2] **Rubber** - Due to large short - term gains, Shanghai rubber fluctuated and adjusted on July 18. As of July 18, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 212,916 tons, a decrease of 673 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 186,640 tons, a decrease of 2050 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory was 40,824 tons, an increase of 402 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 36,691 tons, a decrease of 303 tons [3] **Shanghai Copper** - In the short term, the shortage of the copper ore supply and low processing fees support the price. However, there is an expectation of increased global copper mine production, and supply pressure may gradually appear in the long term. The off - season demand is weak and may continue. The US tariff policy is an important uncertain factor. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with the upper pressure level around 79,000 and the lower support level around 77,000 [3][4] **Cotton** - On the night of July 18, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,230 yuan/ton. On July 21, the lowest basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Trading Market was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 53 lots compared with the previous day [4] **Log** - The 2509 contract opened at 838 on July 18, with the lowest at 824, the highest at 846.5, and closed at 828.5, with a decrease of 625 lots in positions. The market reached a four - month high and then declined, with increased trading volume. The support level is 800 - 820, and the pressure level is 850. From January to June, China's log and sawn timber imports decreased by 12% year - on - year. The port shipment volume decreased, and the spot trading was weak [4] **Steel** - Policy signals of "anti - involution" production restrictions and expanding domestic demand have led to an increase in the expectation of supply - side contraction in the second half of the year. The black - series futures led the increase, driving up the spot price. However, in the coming week, if there is no new positive news, the pressure for futures long - positions to take profits will increase. After profit recovery, the willingness of electric - arc furnaces to resume production has increased, and the weekly output may stop falling and increase slightly. It is expected to maintain a range - bound trend [5] **Alumina** - The domestic bauxite port inventory is gradually increasing, and the supply is sufficient. Due to the increase in spot and futures prices, smelters' production willingness has increased, and the operating capacity has grown. Although the increase in alumina prices has increased the cost of electrolytic aluminum plants, the high aluminum price still provides good profits, and a capacity replacement project in Yunnan supports the demand for alumina. The supply may increase slightly, and the demand is stable [5] **Shanghai Aluminum** - Major producers maintain normal production, and some expanded production capacities are being released. The operating capacity is at a high level. Due to the off - season, the ingot - casting volume has increased, and the inventory has accumulated. The demand from traditional industries is weak, and although emerging industries such as new - energy vehicles and photovoltaic industries are developing rapidly, their demand - pulling effect is limited at present. The supply is stable, and the demand is temporarily weak [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Macroeconomic and news factors boost expectations, but the real - world fundamentals limit price elasticity. The potential policy on the nickel ore HPM formula may affect costs, while the support from the ore end is weakening, and the supply expectation restricts the upside space [4]. - Stainless Steel: There is a game between macro - expectations and real - world supply - demand. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. Although the negative feedback has affected supply, the macro - boost and cost factors will limit the deep decline [5]. - Industrial Silicon: The industry is in a state of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The short - term demand from downstream has increased, and the market has certain anti - decline ability [30][31][34]. - Polysilicon: It is a policy - driven market. It is safer to go long on dips. The policy expectation of "anti - involution" drives the price up, but the transmission of price increases to the terminal is not smooth [30][35]. - Lithium Carbonate: Driven by policies, the lithium price is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the renewal of mining licenses in August. The supply and demand situation is affected by regional mining rights policies [63][64][66]. - Palm Oil: With no new effective negative factors in the fundamentals and the boost of macro - sentiment, the market is trading the de - stocking market in the second half of the year [87]. - Soybean Oil: Although the expectation of Sino - US trade easing has improved the weak reality, its fundamentals are still not as strong as palm oil, and it follows the upward trend of the oil and fat sector [87]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals** - Nickel: Macro and news improve risk preference, but the support from the ore end weakens, and the supply from the smelting end restricts the upside [4]. - Stainless Steel: Macro - expectations boost the market, but the real - world supply - demand is weak. The cost factor limits the deep decline of nickel - iron prices [5]. - **Inventory Changes** - Nickel: Chinese refined nickel social inventory and LME nickel inventory both increased [6]. - Stainless Steel: The total social inventory of stainless steel decreased week - on - week, with different trends in cold - rolled and hot - rolled inventories [7]. - **Market News** - Multiple events such as production resumptions, suspensions, and policy - related news in the nickel and stainless - steel industries have been reported [10][11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends** - Industrial Silicon: The futures and spot prices both increased [30]. - Polysilicon: The futures price rose significantly, and the spot price also increased [30]. - **Supply and Demand** - Industrial Silicon: Supply increased slightly, and the industry inventory decreased. The short - term demand from downstream increased [31]. - Polysilicon: The short - term supply increased, and the upstream inventory decreased. The terminal demand weakened, and the price transmission was not smooth [32][33]. - **Market Views** - Industrial Silicon: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. It is recommended to go short on rallies [34]. - Polysilicon: It is a policy - driven market. It is safer to go long on dips [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends** - The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate both increased, and the basis and contract spreads changed [63]. - **Supply and Demand** - Supply: There are policy issues in the lithium resource mining rights in Jiangxi and Qinghai, but the short - term output continues to increase [64]. - Demand: The inventory accumulation of downstream cathode materials slows down, and the new energy storage installation scale decreases [65]. - Inventory: The social inventory of lithium carbonate increases, and the number of futures warehouse receipts decreases [65]. - **Market Views** - Driven by policies, the lithium price is expected to remain strong. Pay attention to the renewal of mining licenses in August [66]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Price Trends** - Palm Oil: The 09 contract rose 3.25% last week [87]. - Soybean Oil: The 09 contract rose 2.18% last week [87]. - **Market Logic** - Palm Oil: After the negative impact of the MPOB report was digested, the market started to trade the de - stocking market, and was boosted by macro - sentiment [87]. - Soybean Oil: The expectation of Sino - US trade easing improved the weak reality, but the fundamentals are not as strong as palm oil [87].