Macro Economic Group - The U.S. retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month-on-month, reversing a two-month decline, with the previous values being -0.9% in May and -0.1% in April, exceeding most economists' expectations [4] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles and parts, also rose by 0.5% in June, compared to -0.2% in the previous month [4] - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for June was reported at 60.7, up from 52.2, but still significantly lower than the December level of 74, indicating a divergence between subjective and objective economic indicators [4] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Tesla announced the new Model Y L, a luxury electric SUV with dimensions of 4.976 meters in length, 1.92 meters in width, and 1.668 meters in height, seating six passengers, expected to launch in Q3 with a price around 400,000 yuan [7] - The Model Y L is seen as a strategic response to sales pressure and market segmentation, aiming to capture the high-end family market while reinforcing Tesla's technological moat in the long term [7] - The new model is expected to impact competitors like Li Auto, NIO, and Xpeng, particularly in the high-end market segment, and will benefit suppliers in battery technology, casting a positive outlook on companies like CATL [8] Consumer Group - Youyi Foods projected a revenue of 746 to 798 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.9% to 50.8%, with net profit expected to be between 105 to 112 million yuan, a growth of 37.9% to 47.6% [10] - The second quarter revenue is anticipated to be between 363 to 415 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 42.7% to 63.2%, and net profit growth of 66.5% to 88.8% [10] - The company's growth is closely linked to channel expansion and new product performance, with significant sales from new products in the Sam's Club channel and a strong online sales growth trend [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising, and Fed Chairman Powell may be removed. Geopolitical factors are still changeable, so it is recommended to buy gold on dips for hedging [8] - Trump's tariff policy doesn't directly target silver, but Comex silver premium became strong due to the high premium of copper, so it is also recommended to buy silver on dips for hedging [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Summary - Fed Governor Kugler said the Fed should not cut rates "for some time" as tariff impacts are being passed on to consumer prices. A tight monetary policy is needed to control inflation expectations. The 4.1% unemployment rate shows a stable job market close to full employment, and inflation is above the 2% target and facing upward pressure from tariffs. US retail sales in June increased 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.1% [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On July 17, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 776.22 yuan/gram and closed at 776.28 yuan/gram, down 0.05% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 776.74 yuan/gram, down 0.12% from the afternoon session [2] - On July 17, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9,135.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,166.00 yuan/kg, up 0.15% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 906,865 lots, and the open interest was 438,247 lots. The night session closed at 9,204 yuan/kg, up 0.60% from the afternoon session [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 17, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.46%, down 0.04% from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.56%, down 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract, the long position decreased by 1,831 lots and the short position decreased by 794 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 488,279 lots, up 47.74% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long position decreased by 610 lots and the short position decreased by 340 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,155,692 lots, up 15.74% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 948.50 tons, down 2.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,694.95 tons, down 124.34 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On July 17, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 2.26 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -702.99 yuan/kg [6] - The ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver main contract prices was about 84.69, down 0.20% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.16, up 0.40% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On July 17, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d gold was 31,414 kg, up 16.05% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 281,830 kg, down 41.75% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8,734 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 46,860 kg [7]

换资前言： 7.18黄金行情走势分析： 黄金技术面分析：本周黄金价格走势反复无常。周三冲高回落，收出一根带有长上影线的阳线，显示上 方存在较强阻力；周四则下探回升，收出长下影线阴线，表明下方有一定支撑。当前均线系统走势杂 乱，进一步印证了整体处于宽幅震荡的格局。近期行情反反复复，昨晚又跌破了低点走出了延续下跌的 局面，目前短期的市场还是保持着震荡下跌的走势，并且昨晚金价已经反弹测试3343附近压力位的有效 性，目前的盘面已经开始见顶回落，也就说明3343附近有着较强的压力，早盘反弹之后我们可以继续 空！ 交易看起来确实简单，表面上，它不需要你风吹雨淋、低三下四的应酬，不用溜须拍马，不用拼酒伤 胃，不用忍气吞声，只需要在键盘上，敲动几个按钮"买"、"卖"，一笔生意马上就达成，钱迅速到账， 还不欠账，利润到手，多轻松。可是，等到交易做了一段时间，渐渐发现：市场老跟自己过不去，买了 就跌，卖了就涨，自己成了反向指标，怎么做都亏，怎么努力，怎么拼搏，尝试了各种方法，仍然无法 摆脱亏损的泥潭，发现交易如此之艰难。而这时候，你可能只是缺少一位负责任的老师、一个专业分析 团队为你的投资之路保驾护航，指明方向！下面请看作者金 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the non-US region's electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradictions are gradually resolved. The next stage may return to macro trading, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt copper prices. The main focus is on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - The price of alumina is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2,950 - 3,250 this week. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of a squeeze caused by policy changes in Guinea and the reduction of warehouse receipts. The aluminum price is currently at a high level but is expected to face short - term pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro disturbances. The reference price range for the main contract this week is 19,950 - 20,750 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and fluctuate mainly, with the main reference range of 19,400 - 20,200. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions [5]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long term, zinc is still in a cycle of loose supply. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern; otherwise, the zinc price center may move down. The main reference range is 21,500 - 23,000 [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. The cost support for refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to remain loose [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to continue holding short positions established at previous high levels [12]. Stainless Steel - The short - term stainless steel market will mainly fluctuate, with the main operating range of 12,500 - 13,000. The overall supply may decrease, but the demand is weak and the inventory reduction is slow [15]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain strong in a certain range, with the main reference range of 63,000 - 70,000. However, there is still downward pressure in the medium term. The focus is on the upstream operation actions [19]. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,020 yuan/ton, down 0.05% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 is - 64.49 dollars/ton, down 16.22 dollars/ton from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 2 yuan/ton, an increase of 219.72 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30% from the previous month. In May, the import volume was 253,100 tons, an increase of 1.23% from the previous month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,570 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1,286 yuan/ton, an increase of 120.1 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22% from the previous month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM Southwest ADC12 price is 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day. The 2511 - 2512 monthly spread is 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 615,000 tons, an increase of 1.49% from the previous month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 255,000 tons, a decrease of 2.30% from the previous month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,110 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The 2508 - 2509 monthly spread is 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, an increase of 6.50% from the previous month. In May, the import volume was 26,700 tons, a decrease of 5.36% from the previous month [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,450 yuan/ton, down 1.35% from the previous day. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price (ex - factory price) is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged from the previous day [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production in the current period is 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04% from the previous month. The import volume is 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90% from the previous month [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 261,900 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread is - 108 dollars/ton, an increase of 7 dollars/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39% from the previous month. The SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% from the previous month [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot - futures spread is 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.00% from the previous day [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) in the current period is 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% from the previous month. The import volume is 125,100 tons, a decrease of 12.00% from the previous month [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 64,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) is - 3,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88.48% from the previous day [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34% from the previous month. The demand was 83,815 tons, a decrease of 0.15% from the previous month [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The spreads of the three major crude oil markets remained high. Policy-wise, the US will impose new tariffs on over 20 countries starting August 1st, and other trading partners may face a 15% - 20% tariff. OPEC+ is discussing a suspension of production increases starting October. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased this week. US refinery profits strengthened, and the supply - demand contradiction in European diesel was prominent. Asian and domestic gasoline and diesel fundamentals were neutral, with domestic gasoline and diesel inventory accumulation accelerating and refinery profits being eroded. In the peak refinery season, crude oil spreads are expected to remain high - oscillating. WTI and Brent are stronger than the Dubai market. The absolute price faces downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and tariff policies. OPEC+ suspending production increases in the fourth quarter won't change the situation. Attention should be paid to non - OPEC production and the slope of demand change after the peak season [5]. 3. Summary by Related Directory 3.1 Oil Price Data - From July 11th to July 17th, WTI increased by $1.16 to $67.54, Brent by $1.00 to $69.52, and Dubai by $0.31 to $70.24. NYMEX RB increased by 2.64 to 217.04, and HO increased by 7.31 to 246.46. SC decreased by 0.60 to 516.80, and OMAN increased by 0.88 to 69.18. Japanese naphtha - BRT decreased by 13.98 to 63.78, and Singapore 380 - BRT had a change in the spread [3]. 3.2 Daily News - India's oil minister is confident in meeting India's oil demand if Russian oil supplies are affected by secondary sanctions. Russia's gasoline and diesel reserves are close to historical highs, ensuring domestic supply. Two of Iran's nuclear facilities damaged by the US have a relatively low damage level, and Trump rejected a more comprehensive military strike plan against Iran's nuclear program [3][4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - This week, the operating rate of major refineries remained flat, and that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. China's gasoline and diesel production both increased, with diesel inventory accumulating. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries decreased month - on - month [4]. 3.4 EIA Report - For the week ending July 11th, US crude oil exports increased by 76.1 barrels per day to 351.8 barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 1.0 barrel to 1337.5 barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 385.9 barrels to 422 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 2026.2 barrels per day, a 1.1% decrease year - on - year. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 30.0 barrels to 4027 million barrels, a 0.07% decrease. Crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 637.9 barrels per day, an increase of 36.6 barrels per day from the previous week [16].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On Thursday (July 17), China's A-share market saw all three major indices rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to close at 3,516.83 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43% to 10,873.62 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.76% to 2,269.33 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.5394 trillion yuan, an increase of 97.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index strengthened in a volatile manner, closing at 4,034.49, up 27.29 points [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 17, the weighted index of coke showed strength, closing at 1,526.5, up 15.0 points. The weighted index of coking coal regained strength, closing at 935.1 yuan, up 16.5 yuan. In the coke market, the spot price at ports remained stable, with the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port at 1,270 yuan/ton. Mainstream steel mills accepted the first price increase proposed by coke enterprises, but coke enterprises were still operating at a loss, with cautious raw material procurement and squeezed production inventory. In the coking coal market, the price of low - sulfur coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi, increased by 40 yuan to 1,300 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was strong, with the price of Meng 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port rising by 3 yuan to 785 yuan/ton. Domestic coal mines were gradually resuming production, and the three major ports resumed customs clearance on July 16 after a 5 - day closure, but customs clearance was expected to remain low due to the Naadam Festival in Mongolia until July 21 [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The US sugar futures closed slightly lower in a narrow - range oscillation on Wednesday. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract strengthened on Thursday with the support of funds and continued to rise slightly in the night session. ICRA predicted that the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season in India would see a sugar production of 34 million tons, a 15% increase from the previous season's 29.6 million tons [2]. Rubber - Heavy rainfall in Thailand affected rubber tapping, leading to a decrease in raw material supply and an increase in Southeast Asian spot prices. The Shanghai rubber futures rose on Thursday and continued to rise in the night session due to the increase in tire factory operating rates and speculation on weather conditions. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, up 2.34 percentage points week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, up 0.87 percentage points week - on - week. In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 11.8% year - on - year, and in June, exports increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month [3]. Soybean Meal - On July 17, the CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to technical buying. The US Department of Agriculture reported that the net increase in US soybean export sales in the week ending July 10 was 271,900 tons, a 46% decrease from the previous week. The good weather in US soybean - growing areas reduced the risk of yield reduction, posing a resistance to price increases. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures were strong on July 17. The high arrival volume of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates led to large soybean meal production, but feed and breeding enterprises' purchases were limited, increasing the supply pressure in the spot market. However, the increase in US soybean prices and Brazilian soybean CNF premiums would support the price from the import cost side [4]. Live Pigs - On July 17, the main live pig futures contract LH2509 closed at 14,060 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. High - temperature weather increased the risk of pig diseases, leading to more active selling by farmers. The terminal market was in the off - season, with weak demand. The stable recovery of the sow inventory indicated medium - to - long - term supply pressure, and the pig price was expected to fluctuate weakly. Short - term attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm [5]. Palm Oil - On July 17, palm oil futures maintained a high - level oscillation with a rising bottom and slightly hit a new high. The price closed at 8,796 yuan, up 0.85%. After the US agreed to reduce the tariff on Indonesian palm oil from 32% to 19% (lower than Malaysia's 25%), Indonesia was expected to maintain its dominant position in the US palm oil market. Malaysia was still negotiating with the US government to achieve a "win - win" situation [6]. Shanghai Copper - In June, the US PPI was lower than expected while the CPI rose, showing a divergence in inflation between the consumer and production sides. Uncertainties in the US external tariff policy and the President's attitude towards the Fed Chairman affected market sentiment. Fundamentally, the global copper mine supply shortage was difficult to ease in the short term, and the increasing demand from the new energy industry would support the copper price. However, the uncertainty of the US import tariff policy on copper and the increase in bonded - area copper inventory might put pressure on the price. In the short term, Shanghai copper was expected to oscillate around 78,000 yuan/ton [7]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract closed at 14,320 yuan/ton. On July 18, the base - price quote at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was at least 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 58 lots compared to the previous day [7]. Logs - On July 17, the 2509 log futures contract opened at 799.5, with the lowest price of 799.5, the highest price of 834, and closed at 833, with an increase of 9,956 lots in positions. It had the largest increase in three months with a significant increase in trading volume. Attention should be paid to the support level of 800 - 820 and the resistance level of 850. The spot prices of radiata pine logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. From January to June, China's log and sawn - timber imports decreased by 12% year - on - year, and port shipments decreased. The supply - demand relationship was relatively balanced, but spot trading was weak [7][8][10]. Steel - On July 17, the rb2510 rebar futures contract closed at 3,133 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3,292 yuan/ton. This week, rebar production continued to decline, inventory slightly increased, and apparent demand significantly decreased. It was the traditional off - season for rebar consumption, with more seasonal maintenance in steel mills and some shifting production to other products. The terminal demand was weak due to low project funds, resulting in a weak market. Currently, the rebar market had weak supply and demand, with slightly increased but still low inventory, and the short - term futures price was expected to move in a narrow range [10]. Alumina - On July 17, the ao2509 alumina futures contract closed at 3,089 yuan/ton. The operating capacity of alumina reached a historical high, and new capacity continued to be released, leading to a significant supply increase exceeding consumption demand. In the third quarter, new capacity would be put into production, and the existing output would reach a new high, with an expected supply surplus. Market inventory continued to accumulate, putting pressure on the price. The increase in warehouse receipts also indicated sufficient physical supply and weakened spot support [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 17, the al2509 Shanghai aluminum futures contract closed at 20,415 yuan/ton. Uncertainty about the Fed Chairman's position and the US tariff policy affected market sentiment, weakening the upward momentum of the aluminum price. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in domestic main consumption areas was 492,000 tons, decreasing by 9,000 tons from Monday but increasing by 26,000 tons from the previous Thursday. In the short term, the aluminum price was expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to inventory and demand changes [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index market, overseas focus is on the impact of US tariffs on various countries, while domestically, attention is on the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July. It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips [3]. - For treasury bonds, in the context of weak domestic demand recovery and loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term. It is advisable to enter the market on dips, considering the impact of the stock - bond seesaw [5]. - Regarding precious metals, the expectation of loose monetary policy will drive up the prices of gold and silver, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on silver [7]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, different metals have different price trends. For example, copper prices are expected to have a weak rebound, aluminum prices will follow the commodity atmosphere, zinc prices are expected to be bearish in the long - term and volatile in the short - term, etc. [9][10][11]. - In the black building materials market, the prices of finished products are oscillating strongly. The market needs to pay attention to policy signals, terminal demand repair rhythm, and cost support [23]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be long - term bullish, while crude oil is recommended to be observed for risk control [37][39]. - In the agricultural products market, different products also have different trends. For example, for pork, short - term long positions may have space, while for eggs, a strategy of waiting for a rebound to short is recommended [52][53]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Macro News**: The starting price of the super - luxury car consumption tax is adjusted to 900,000 yuan; Guangzhou Futures Exchange implements trading limits on polysilicon futures; Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on Japan; US import prices and retail sales data show different trends [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: Different basis ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts [3]. - **Trading Logic**: Overseas, focus on US tariffs; domestically, focus on the July "Central Political Bureau Meeting". It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS showed different price changes [4]. - **News**: US retail sales and initial jobless claims data are released; the central bank conducts 450.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 360.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, interest rates are expected to decline. It is advisable to enter the market on dips, considering the stock - bond seesaw [5]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: The prices of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver show different trends; the US 10 - year treasury bond yield and the US dollar index are provided [6]. - **Market Outlook**: US retail sales data is affected by price factors, and the dovish attitude of the Fed supports the price of silver. It is recommended to go long on silver [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper and Shanghai copper prices rise; LME inventory increases, and domestic social inventory decreases [9]. - **Analysis**: The commodity atmosphere supports copper prices, but the expectation of US copper tariffs brings risks. The raw material shortage situation is weakening, and the rebound strength is expected to be weak [9]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: LME aluminum and Shanghai aluminum prices rise; domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreases, and LME inventory increases [10]. - **Analysis**: The domestic commodity atmosphere is positive, but the overseas trade situation is uncertain. Aluminum ingot inventory is low, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation, and prices will follow the commodity atmosphere [10]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai zinc index rises, and LME zinc falls; domestic social inventory increases slightly [11]. - **Analysis**: The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, zinc prices are bearish, and in the short - term, they are expected to oscillate [11]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai lead index falls, and LME lead falls; domestic social inventory increases slightly [12]. - **Analysis**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and the demand is slightly weak. Domestic lead prices are expected to be weak [12]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Nickel prices oscillate; the price of nickel iron falls, and the price of nickel ore weakens [13][14][15]. - **Analysis**: The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the price of nickel iron is expected to fall. It is recommended to go short on nickel at high prices [15]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: Tin prices oscillate; the supply of tin ore is expected to increase, but the actual output needs time [16]. - **Analysis**: The supply of tin is low, and the demand is weak. In the short - term, tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The price of lithium carbonate rises; production increases, and inventory increases slightly [17]. - **Analysis**: Supply - side disturbances are frequent. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to industry information and market atmosphere [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index falls; spot prices in different regions show different trends; the import window is closed [18]. - **Analysis**: The price of bauxite is expected to strengthen in the medium - term, but the over - capacity pattern of alumina remains. It is recommended to short at high prices [18]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The price of stainless steel rises; social inventory decreases slightly, but the inventory of some varieties is still high [19]. - **Analysis**: Affected by policies and demand, stainless steel prices are expected to rise slightly [19]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rises slightly; inventory increases slightly [20]. - **Analysis**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are weak. The cost support is strengthened, but the price increase is limited [20]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rise; the inventory of rebar accumulates slightly, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreases [22][23]. - **Analysis**: The market atmosphere is positive, but the fundamental contradiction is not obvious. It is necessary to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [23]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The price of iron ore rises; the supply and demand situation changes, and the port inventory increases slightly [24][25]. - **Analysis**: In the short - term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate strongly. It is necessary to pay attention to market sentiment and macro - economic factors [25]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: The price of glass is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the price of soda ash is expected to be weak in the medium - term [26][27]. - **Analysis**: The supply of glass is stable, and the demand is resilient; the supply of soda ash is loose, and the inventory pressure is large [26][27]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rise; the price trends are affected by market sentiment [28]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is still bearish, but in the short - term, the market is affected by sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [28][29]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The price of industrial silicon rises slightly; the supply is excessive, and the demand is insufficient [32]. - **Analysis**: In the short - term, the price is affected by sentiment. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging operations [32][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU prices rise; the开工 rate of tire enterprises changes, and the inventory situation is different [37]. - **Analysis**: Rubber prices are expected to rise in the second half of the year. It is recommended to go long in the medium - term and be neutral - long in the short - term [37][38]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI and Brent crude oil prices rise, and INE crude oil prices fall; the inventory of refined oil products changes [39]. - **Analysis**: The geopolitical risk is uncertain, and the market is in a long - short game. It is recommended to observe and control risks [39]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The price of methanol rises; the upstream and downstream situations change [40]. - **Analysis**: The market is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [40]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The price of urea rises; the supply and demand situation is acceptable [41]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [41]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of styrene rises, and the futures price falls; the BZN spread is expected to repair [42]. - **Analysis**: The price of styrene is expected to follow the cost side [42]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The price of PVC rises; the supply is strong, and the demand is weak [44]. - **Analysis**: The market is under pressure, and the price is expected to be weak in the future [44]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The price of ethylene glycol rises; the supply and demand situation changes [45]. - **Analysis**: In the short - term, the price is expected to be strong, but the fundamental situation is weak [45]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The price of PTA rises; the supply is expected to increase, and the demand is under pressure [46]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PX on dips [46]. p - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The price of p - xylene rises; the supply and demand situation changes [47][48]. - **Analysis**: In the third quarter, p - xylene is expected to reduce inventory. It is recommended to go long on dips following the price of crude oil [48]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of PE rises, and the现货 price falls; the inventory and demand situation changes [49]. - **Analysis**: The price of PE is expected to oscillate downward [49]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of PP rises, and the现货 price falls; the supply and demand situation is weak [50]. - **Analysis**: The price of PP is expected to be bearish in July. It is recommended to wait and see [50]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Quotes**: The price of hogs falls; the short - term supply decreases seasonally, but there is pressure in the medium - term [52]. - **Analysis**: Short - term long positions may have space, but attention should be paid to supply delay and hedging pressure [52]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The price of eggs rises; the supply is large, and the short - term rebound space is limited [53]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [53]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: The price of US soybeans rebounds; the price of domestic soybean meal rises [54]. - **Analysis**: The soybean market is long - short intertwined. It is recommended to go long on dips and wait for new driving factors [54][55]. Oils - **Market Quotes**: The price of palm oil rises; the export and production situation of palm oil changes [56][57]. - **Analysis**: The price of oils is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the impact of policies and production [58][59]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: The price of sugar rises; the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year [60]. - **Analysis**: The price of sugar is expected to decline if the external market does not rebound significantly [60]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: The price of cotton rises; the export situation of textiles and clothing changes [61]. - **Analysis**: The price of cotton has rebounded, but there are potential negative factors [61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The 50% tariff on copper imports announced by the US may not fully price in the CL spread in the short - term, and the low inventories in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand, and reverse spreads between distant months and inside - outside spreads can be considered under the low - inventory pattern [1]. - Zinc maintains a short - allocation idea, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended; long inside - outside spreads can be held, and attention can be paid to positive spreads between months [2]. - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are average, and opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6]. - Stainless steel is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to weak fundamentals [10]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week, and attention should be paid to the terminal consumption destocking strength [12]. - Tin is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term observation is recommended [14]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate if the start - up does not recover significantly in the short term [16]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to oscillate, and a downward inflection point requires significant accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot [18]. Summary by Metals Copper - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, and COMEX copper rose 16%. The US has imported over 860,000 tons of copper in 2025, filling the rigid import gap, so the 50% tariff may not be fully priced in the short - term. Attention should be paid to exemption situations. After the tariff is implemented, the low inventories in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to May. In July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally, and supply and demand are expected to be balanced. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and reverse spreads [1]. Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply is expected to increase by over 5,000 tons in July. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is also weak. There is a risk of a short squeeze when LME inventory is below 100,000 tons. Short - allocation, long inside - outside spreads, and positive spreads between months are recommended [2]. Nickel - Pure nickel production remains high, and nickel bean imports increased in May. Demand is weak, and LME premium strengthened slightly. Overseas nickel plate inventory is stable, and domestic inventory decreased slightly. The worry about ore - end disturbances has eased, and attention can be paid to the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. Stainless Steel - Supply has been reduced passively since late May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. Costs are stable. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10]. Lead - Lead prices declined slightly this week. Supply from scrap is weak, and demand from batteries is also weak. It is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week, and attention should be paid to terminal consumption destocking [12]. Tin - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly in July - August due to low processing fees and upcoming maintenance. Demand from soldering tin is limited, and the growth of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to slow down. It is recommended to observe in the short term [14]. Industrial Silicon - The start - up changed little this week. Output is expected to decline in July and subsequent months, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to destocking. It is expected to oscillate if the start - up does not recover significantly [16]. Carbonate Lithium - The futures price of carbonate lithium rebounded from a low level. Supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and inventory pressure is gradually accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, and a downward inflection point requires significant accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot [18].

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by $31.50, or 0.33%, closing at $9,666.50 per ton on July 17, driven by better-than-expected U.S. retail sales data, overshadowing concerns over rising copper inventories and uncertainties regarding U.S. import tariffs [1][3] - The available copper inventory on the LME has surged by 70% since the announcement of U.S. copper tariffs, reaching 110,950 tons, the highest level since April 30, alleviating supply concerns [3] - The current spot copper price has shifted to a discount of $53 per ton compared to the three-month futures, a significant change from a premium of $320 per ton three weeks ago [4] Group 2 - U.S. retail sales rebounded more than expected in June, indicating a recovery in economic momentum, which has improved confidence in copper, widely used in electricity and construction [3] - China's refined copper production for June 2025 is projected to be 1.302 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with a cumulative production of 7.363 million tons for the first half of the year, reflecting a 9.5% year-on-year growth [4] - There remains significant uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs, with the market awaiting confirmation of the August 1 deadline and the list of copper products subject to tariffs, leading to speculation that major copper-producing countries may receive exemptions [4]

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