近期，随着外围多变政策的扰动，大盘也再次进入震荡修复阶段。一边是择机降准降息仍有待商榷，一边是节假日前持仓观望情绪提升，我认为 这个节点埋伏一波A500指数，等待大盘选择进攻方向或是不错的选择。 首先，从历史数据来看，统计2015-2024年五一节前三个交易日Wind全A涨跌幅，发现仅2019年未录得正收益，上涨概率较大。，节前埋伏大盘宽 基的性价比较高。 其次，从政策方面来看，近期政策信号密集释放，增量政策的核心逻辑逐渐清晰。从这场博弈结果来看，两边高手见招拆招，你有张良计，我有 过墙梯，国内择机降准降息近期多次被提及。考虑到当前市场悲观的观望情绪较浓，多家外媒预计宽松政策或将提前落地。 而当下不管是通过刺激内需带动经济内循环，还是加强科技自主可控，核心目标都是为了保住今年GDP预计增速，抵御外围扰动风险。但受限于 不少场内活跃资金再次缩量，剩余资金更倾向于等待两边确定性政策落地后博弈先手。但不管是那边政策先出，直接埋伏大盘宽基，都可以稳坐 钓鱼台，省却两边博弈切换的风险。 最后，相比其余大盘宽基，中证A500在持仓方面更为兼顾价值与成长。中证A500指数纳入ESG可持续发展理念、互联互通等全新视角，剔除E ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a "calendar effect," particularly during earnings disclosure periods (April, July, October), where performance growth significantly impacts stock prices compared to other months [1] - The A50 ETF fund (159592) has seen a daily trading volume of 87.4 million yuan over the past month, indicating high market interest [1] - Major stocks in the A50 index, such as Luoyang Molybdenum and China Aluminum, have shown significant price increases, with Luoyang Molybdenum rising over 4% [1] Group 2 - Huajin Securities projects that the net profit growth rates for the entire A-share market in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025 will be 6.83%, 10.85%, and 8.47% respectively, with an annual growth rate of 6.95% [2] - The implementation of stable growth policies in Q2 is expected to support market sentiment, including fiscal and monetary policy measures aimed at boosting consumption and encouraging technological innovation [2]

Market Adjustment - The article discusses the recent market adjustment, indicating that the convergence of style gaps can occur through either lagging styles catching up or leading styles declining, with the current situation reflecting a strong market state [1][13] - Historical data shows that from October 2013 to December 2013, growth styles were dominant, while consumer styles took over in the same period in 2014, indicating a cyclical nature of market styles [2][14] Calendar Effects - The article highlights the strong seasonal patterns observed in small-cap indices during the first half of the year, noting that adjustments typically occur from December to January to avoid risks associated with annual report forecasts [3][15] - Post-Spring Festival, there is over a 90% probability of an upward trend leading into the Two Sessions, driven by the release of annual report forecasts and the resolution of overseas uncertainties [4][5] TMT Sector Insights - The TMT sector's crowdedness is analyzed, suggesting that a drop in sentiment to around 31% from a peak of 44.6% in February could present a good re-entry point for investments [9][17] - The article recommends continued investment in technology sectors, particularly those with potential for quick order fulfillment and strong fundamentals, such as CSP manufacturers and military electronics [10][18] Deep Sea Technology - The inclusion of "deep sea technology" in the government work report marks a significant policy shift, positioning it alongside commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy, indicating its growing importance [11][19] - Deep sea technology encompasses various sectors, including safety assurance, resource development, and scientific research, with a focus on high-tech materials and equipment suitable for deep-sea conditions [21][22] Comparison with Low Altitude Economy - The article draws parallels between the current deep sea technology trend and the previous low altitude economy surge, suggesting that strong policy support could drive similar market movements [25][29] - Historical performance of low altitude economy stocks shows significant price increases, indicating potential for deep sea technology stocks to follow suit [30][32]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market dynamics indicate a shift from a technology-dominated landscape to a more diversified performance across various sectors, including consumer goods, retail, textiles, agriculture, and light manufacturing, suggesting discussions around "market diffusion" or "high-low rotation" are increasing [1] Group 1: Calendar Effect - The calendar effect is a common explanation for the market's behavior, with reports indicating that March to April serves as a transition period where market styles shift from clear trends to a more balanced performance across various styles [2] - Specifically, from early February to early March, small-cap and high-beta sectors tend to outperform, while larger, low-valuation stocks struggle [2] - As the market moves into late April, with earnings reports being disclosed, the focus will shift towards high-performing stocks with strong earnings certainty [2] Group 2: Incremental Capital Changes - Reports suggest that the "high-low rotation" phenomenon is partly driven by incremental capital changes, with consumer-focused and dividend-style funds showing signs of increasing allocations to consumer sectors [3] - Additionally, there are indications of portfolio adjustments among dividend-style funds, while low-risk capital is being allocated to low-positioned cyclical large-cap growth stocks due to favorable cost-benefit considerations [3] - However, there is no significant evidence of technology growth funds switching out of their positions [3] Group 3: Market Pricing Dynamics - Changes in market pricing are also being observed, with reports noting that credit growth is weak, and consumer activity is seasonally declining post-holiday [3] - The stock market appears to be pricing in optimistic data while underpricing negative data, possibly due to prior pricing of pessimistic data and expectations of new growth cycles driven by policies and emerging industries like AI [3] Group 4: Global Perspective - Some analysts suggest that the changes in the A-share market should be viewed in a global context, indicating a shift in global investor focus from the U.S. and information technology to other sectors [4] - The rising correlation between the CSI 300 and European markets suggests that global investors are seeking new opportunities beyond traditional tech narratives [4] Group 5: Market Sentiment - The diverse explanations for market behavior reflect a warming market sentiment, indicating that the market is no longer dominated by a single sector, which may lead to more investment opportunities [5] - This environment is favorable for investors skilled in identifying alpha, providing a platform for previously held insights to materialize [5]