中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 特朗普周末卷入以伊大战，一改周五晚间的措辞，全球多方谴责，避险情绪或 | | 黄金 | 强势震荡 | 升温，上周欧洲央行连续降息、7 月 9 日对等关税或重起。未来中期短期不确 | | | | 定性仍然较多，长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【773-801】 | | | | 关注黄金价格波动对白银的影响。近期白银走高主要是缘自资金情绪，金银比 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 价目前回归正常区间，目前白银基本面变化不大，盘面关注 8700 支撑，考虑到 | | | | 白银的品种特性-快涨快跌，操作上做好仓位控制。【8700-8900】 | | | | 传统消费淡季深入，短期铜多单止盈兑现离场，全球经济受中东战乱和中美贸易摩 | | 铜 | 承压 | 擦影响预期偏弱，产业客户积极逢高布局卖出套保，锁定合理利润。沪铜关注区间 | | | | 【77800，78800】 | | | | 需求淡季，国内锌库存累库，锌震荡回落，测试前低支撑，长期看，锌供增需 | | 锌 | 承压 | 弱，把握逢高空 ...

| 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 2985 | 6 | 热卷01 | 3107 | d | | 螺纹05 | 2987 | 8 | 热卷05 | 3100 | 7 | | 螺纹10 | 2992 | 6 | 热卷10 | 3116 | 13 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2920 | 10 | 张家港废钢 | 2130 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3160 | 0 | 热卷:天津 | 3110 | 10 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3090 | 0 | 热卷:上海 | 3200 | 10 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3130 | 10 | 热卷： 杭州 | 3220 | 10 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3160 | 0 | 热卷:广州 | 3180 | 10 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3190 | 0 | 热卷:成都 | 3400 | 0 | | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 螺纹01:上 ...

Group 1 - Analysts believe the recent performance of gold is a temporary phenomenon, and gold prices are expected to resume their upward trend, while the dollar's status as a traditional "safe-haven asset" will continue to be undermined by U.S. tariff policies and fiscal outlook [1][3] - Last week, spot gold closed at approximately $3,368 per ounce, marking a weekly decline of 1.8%, the first drop in three weeks, and the lowest level since June 12 [3] - Deutsche Bank's report indicates that geopolitical risk premiums for gold have rapidly dissipated since mid-June, but this may be a false signal; historically, gold prices have averaged a 3% increase during geopolitical events [3][4] Group 2 - The World Gold Council's recent survey found that geopolitical uncertainty and potential trade conflicts are primary reasons for emerging market central banks shifting to gold at a faster pace than developed economies [4] - Bank of America predicts that even without geopolitical risks, gold prices will continue to rise, driven by central bank purchases to hedge against deteriorating U.S. fiscal prospects [5] - Bank of America estimates that current central bank gold holdings are about 18% of U.S. public debt, up from 13% a decade ago, and anticipates gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce next year, a 19% increase from current levels [5] Group 3 - The dollar index experienced a rare increase, rebounding last week with its largest weekly gain in a month, driven by rising demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating Middle East conflicts [6] - Despite the recent rise, market participants believe the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset is under significant pressure due to ongoing concerns over U.S. trade policies and fiscal deficits [6] - The complex sentiment towards the dollar is reflected in U.S. Treasury yields, which have shown little change since the onset of the conflict, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.39% [6]

Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks remain the largest shadow over the market, with the conflict between Israel and Iran escalating due to U.S. intervention, adding unpredictable variables to the situation [1] - The direct involvement of the U.S. has fundamentally changed the nature and scale of the conflict, potentially leading to significant sell-offs in risk assets, surges in safe-haven assets, and volatility in energy prices [1] - Oil prices have retreated after hitting key resistance levels, but geopolitical premiums persist, with any escalation in conflict likely to rapidly increase oil prices, impacting global inflation and consumer spending [1] Economic Data - The release of high-quality economic data this week, although limited in quantity, is expected to significantly influence market sentiment [2] - The U.S. first-quarter GDP data is anticipated to show an annualized negative growth of -0.2%, raising concerns about the health of the U.S. economy and potentially igniting discussions about a recession [2] - The market is assessing the impact of U.S. tariffs, indicating potential negative effects of trade policy on economic activity [3] Inflation Indicators - The core PCE data for May, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, is expected to show a month-over-month increase of +0.1%, which is relatively mild [3] - If the data meets or falls below expectations, it may strengthen market expectations for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while a surprise increase could extinguish hopes for rate cuts and lead to significant market adjustments [3] - CPI data from Canada, Australia, and Japan will also provide insights into their respective central banks' policy paths and influence currency performance [3] Central Bank Communications - The speeches of major central bank officials this week are a significant focus for the market [4] - Most central banks have adopted a cautious stance amid uncertain global economic prospects and persistent inflation, with the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cutting rates due to domestic economic pressures [4] - Key speeches from ECB President Lagarde, Fed Chair Powell, and others will provide the latest assessments of the economic situation, inflation outlook, and future policy directions [4] Market Reactions - The resurgence of the U.S. dollar is noteworthy, as it often gains favor as a safe-haven asset amid increasing global uncertainty [5] - If geopolitical risks continue to escalate or economic data indicates more challenges for the global economy, demand for the dollar as a safe haven may further support its strength [5] - The Swiss franc has come under pressure following the SNB's rate cut, complicating its future trajectory [5] Overall Market Environment - The current market environment is characterized by high volatility due to geopolitical tensions, potential economic data impacts, and central bank signals [6] - Investors need to closely monitor developments in the Middle East, particularly any indications of U.S. positions, as well as the interpretation of U.S. GDP and PCE data for insights into economic direction and inflation pressures [6] - Central bank leaders' speeches will provide a window into future monetary policy paths, with a need for investors to maintain cash positions and utilize hedging tools to manage potential tail risks [6]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions following the U.S. airstrikes on Iran have led investors to seek safe-haven assets, resulting in a stronger U.S. dollar and increased oil prices, while U.S. stock index futures have declined due to heightened risk aversion and concerns over energy supply [1][6][9]. Market Reactions - The dollar has strengthened against the euro and most major currencies in early Asian trading, while oil futures surged, reflecting the market's response to geopolitical risks [1]. - Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen significant declines, indicating a broader sell-off in the cryptocurrency market as investors move towards safer assets [2]. - The S&P 500 index remains only about 3% below its historical high from February, suggesting that the market's overall reaction has been relatively muted despite the ongoing conflict [4]. Oil Market Impact - Brent crude oil futures have jumped 11% to $77 per barrel, with traders preparing for further price increases amid escalating tensions in a region that accounts for one-third of global oil production [6]. - Analysts suggest that if the conflict escalates, oil prices could rise significantly, while a quick resolution might see prices revert to the $60 range [6]. U.S. Dollar Dynamics - The U.S. dollar has risen approximately 0.9% since the conflict began, but this increase is considered limited given the dollar's traditional role as a safe-haven currency [6]. - Market strategists indicate that if the dollar maintains its upward trend, it could enhance the attractiveness of other U.S. assets [7]. Investor Sentiment and Strategies - Investors are weighing multiple factors, including inflation, growth, oil prices, and trade tariffs, as they navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape [8]. - The potential for Iran to respond aggressively, such as by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, remains a critical concern for market participants [5][9]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the market's response to the conflict may be tempered due to the current accommodative monetary policies and the absence of liquidity bubbles [12]. - The geopolitical situation is expected to create volatility in oil and gold prices, while the core issue remains whether U.S. assets will continue to enjoy a safe-haven premium [15].

智通财经APP获悉，国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃警告称，美国对伊朗发动 空袭打击后，全球经济面临的不确定性加剧，该事件带来的影响可能不仅仅限于霍尔木兹海峡封锁预期 所带来的原油、液化天然气(LNG)等能源领域价格大涨，IMF正在持续监控能源价格以外的更广泛经济 增长风险。国际货币基金组织正密切关注能源价格受到的影响程度，以及对大型经济体增长前景的潜在 二次和三次级别影响。 "我们把这视为在全球经济高度不确定环境中的又一个不确定来源，"格奥尔基耶娃周一在接受媒体采访 时表示。她还表示，迄今为止最大的冲击体现为能源价格，IMF正紧密追踪这一动向，但"可能会出现 潜在的二次、三次级别的对于经济增长的影响"。 "假如进一步地缘政治动荡打击到全球一些大型经济体的增长前景，那么全球经济增速预期就会触发下 调机制，进而引起一系列负面连锁反应。"格奥尔基耶娃表示。 全球原油基准——布伦特原油期货价格在周一亚洲早盘一度飙升5.7%，至每桶 81.40 美元，随后在大量 成交中回吐大部分涨幅。 据了解，IMF此前已经在4月下调今年全球增速预期，并当时警告称，由美国主导的世界贸易格局"重 启"将拖累全球 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the escalation of tensions in the Middle East following the U.S. military action against Iran's nuclear facilities, which has led to a more unpredictable security and political landscape in the region [1] - International crude oil prices have surged approximately 10% within a week after the Israeli attack on Iran, with a total increase of over 20% for June, indicating heightened geopolitical risks affecting global commodity and financial markets [3] - Iran has threatened to consider closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil trade, which could significantly impact global economies reliant on Middle Eastern oil supplies [3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the U.S. military action may not only exacerbate tensions with Iran but also lead to further increases in international oil prices, potentially raising global inflation levels and affecting monetary policies worldwide [3] - The international community is calling for restraint to prevent further escalation of conflict, with the UN Secretary-General emphasizing that diplomatic solutions are the only viable path to resolve the current crisis [4] - The long-standing differences between the U.S. and Iran, coupled with the profound impacts of recent events, suggest that achieving a genuine peace solution may take considerable time [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The A-share market is affected by overseas geopolitical crises and domestic policies, with suggestions to go long on certain index futures contracts related to the economy and "new - quality productivity" [4]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the short - term, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [7]. - The precious metals market is influenced by the Fed's interest - rate policy and US fiscal conditions, and the prices of gold and silver are expected to have different trends [8]. - For various metals in the non - ferrous metals industry, the prices are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and geopolitical situations, with different trends and trading strategies [12][13][16]. - In the black building materials industry, steel and iron ore prices are affected by real - estate demand, production, and supply - demand relationships, and the market is expected to be weak [25][27]. - In the energy and chemical industry, prices of various products are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [43][44][45]. - In the agricultural products industry, prices of livestock, grains, and oils are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, seasonal changes, and policies, and different trading strategies are suggested [57][58][61]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Stock Index - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07%, the ChiNext Index down 0.83%, etc., and the total trading volume of the two markets decreased by 182.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2]. - Overseas, the Middle - East geopolitical crisis suppresses global risk appetite, while Sino - US trade tensions ease. Domestically, May economic data is generally stable, and policies are introduced to support the capital market. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures and IC or IM futures [4]. - The trading strategy for index futures is to buy IF long positions on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [5]. Treasury Bonds - On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. The 6 - month LPR remained stable, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [6]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the short - term, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [7]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.24% to 782.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 0.02% to 8737 yuan/kilogram. The Fed's interest - rate policy affects US debt interest payments, and the price of gold and silver is expected to have different trends [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated. The inventory of the three major exchanges decreased, and the LME cash/3M premium widened. The price may rise in the short - term but is limited by consumption, and the running range of the Shanghai copper main contract is 77,500 - 79,600 yuan/ton [12]. Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices rose. Domestic and LME inventories decreased, and the cash/3M turned to a premium. The price may continue to rise but is limited by the price increase and the off - season effect, with the running range of the domestic main contract being 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [13]. Zinc - After the release of import and export data, zinc ore imports in May were good, but zinc ingot imports were lower than expected. The zinc industry is in the process of converting excess zinc ore into zinc ingots, and the zinc price has a large downward risk, but the starting point of the market is uncertain [14]. Lead - After the release of import and export data, the export of lead - acid batteries declined, and downstream consumption remained weak. The profit of primary lead smelting increased, and the price is expected to remain weak [15]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices were weak. The supply of refined nickel was high, and the demand was weak. The cost support weakened, and it is advisable to go short on rallies, with the running range of the Shanghai nickel main contract being 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [16]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar was tight, and the supply of refined tin was further tightened. The demand was in the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [17]. Carbonate Lithium - The price of carbonate lithium was weak at the bottom this week. The supply clearance was slow, and the downstream was in the off - season. The lithium price may face selling pressure, and the running range of the main contract is 58,000 - 59,600 yuan/ton [18]. Alumina - On June 20, the alumina index fell. The spot price in some regions decreased, and the import window was closed. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is advisable to go short on rallies, with the running range of the main contract being 2750 - 3100 yuan/ton [19]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract fell. The spot price in some markets decreased, and the inventory increased. The market is affected by high inventory and weak demand, and the key lies in whether downstream demand can drive inventory digestion [20][22]. Black Building Materials Steel - On Friday, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose. The real - estate demand is weak, and the market has entered the off - season. The terminal demand is weakening, and attention should be paid to policy, demand, and cost factors [24][25]. Iron Ore - On Friday, the iron - ore main contract rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand for molten iron is strong. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, waiting for changes in the supply - demand relationship [26][27]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot price is stable, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be weak in the medium - term. - Soda Ash: The spot price is stable, and the inventory is increasing. The demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be weak on the disk [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rebounded this week but are still in a downward trend. The fundamental situation is not good, and it is not advisable to buy on the left - hand side [29][30][32]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon futures price fell on June 20. The price is in a downward trend, and the supply is in excess while the demand is insufficient. The price may continue to fall, and it is not advisable to buy on the left - hand side [34][35][36]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - NR and RU are oscillating and weakening. The bulls expect price increases due to potential production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. The tire - opening rate is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to have a neutral view and short - term operations [38][39][41]. Crude Oil - As of Friday, WTI crude oil rose, Brent crude oil fell, and INE crude oil rose. The geopolitical risk has been released, and the oil price has deviated from the fundamentals. It is in the short - selling range [43]. Methanol - On June 20, the methanol 09 contract fell. The port inventory is relatively low, and the price has risen due to geopolitical conflicts. It is advisable to wait and see on the single - side, and pay attention to the downstream feedback [44]. Urea - On June 20, the urea 09 contract rose. The international price has risen due to geopolitical conflicts, and the domestic price has bottomed out. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. Styrene - The spot price of styrene rose, and the futures price fell. The cost supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile after the Middle - East conflict stabilizes [46][47]. PVC - The PVC09 contract rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term and weak in the long - term, but beware of rebounds [48]. Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 contract fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. The inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to short on rallies, but beware of geopolitical risks [49]. PTA - The PTA09 contract fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is under pressure. The inventory is accumulating. It is advisable to go long on dips following PX, but beware of oil - price drops [50][51]. Para - Xylene - The PX09 contract fell. The supply is at a high level, and it is expected to destock in the third quarter. It is advisable to go long on dips following crude oil, but beware of oil - price drops [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - The conflict between Israel and Iran affects PE imports from Iran. The supply pressure may ease, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - The profit of Shandong refineries has declined, and the supply of propylene is restricted. The supply is expected to increase in June, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be bearish [54][55]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The pig price rose over the weekend. The supply of upstream breeding is limited, and the sentiment of second - round fattening is good. It is advisable to go long on dips for near - term contracts and short on rallies for far - term contracts [57]. Eggs - The egg price was stable over the weekend. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to short on rallies on the disk [58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The US soybean price fell slightly on Friday, and the domestic soybean - meal futures were strong. The supply and demand of soybean meal are in a multi - empty situation. It is advisable to go long on dips at the low - cost range [59][60][61]. Oils and Fats - The export data of Malaysian palm oil is good, and the production data is mixed. The EPA policy is beneficial, but the oils and fats market may face inventory pressure in the peak season. The price is expected to be oscillating and strong [62][63][64]. Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded on Friday. The import volume of syrup and premix decreased. The import profit window has opened, and the sugar price is expected to decline [65][66]. Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price was volatile on Friday. The downstream consumption is in the off - season, and the supply is gradually destocking. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term [67].

南华贵金属日报: 中东局势混乱 美联储依然偏鹰 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月23日 【盘面回顾】 本周贵金属市场价格表现整体偏弱，其中黄金走势弱于白银，尽管动荡的中东地缘政局略微提升避险情 绪，但走高的油价以及美联储FOMC会议继续释放偏鹰降息信号，推升美指走强，并抑制贵金属价格。周四 凌晨召开的美联储6月FOMC会议，连续第四次维持为4.25%-4.5%基准利率不变，点阵图利率中值仍预计美 联储年内将降息2次，但上调26年和27年利率中值，且7/19官员认为25年维持利率不变；鲍威尔讲话则仍然 维持了继续等待观望的态度，主要基于对通胀前景的不确定性，而经济上尚无无迫切降息需求。周末期间中 东地缘政局加速升级，美国对伊朗三大核设施发动攻击；伊朗议会则批准关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最高安全机 构需要最终决定这一措施。其他方面，周二晚间公布的美零售销售月率-0.9%，低于预期-0.7%，且前值下 修。周二召开的日央行利率决议维持年内第三次按兵不动。 贵金属期现价格表 【资金与库存】 长线基金持仓看，上周SPDR黄金ETF持仓周增9.75吨至9 ...

贵金属周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 以伊冲突升级，金价高位震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 黄蕾 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格小幅回调而收跌。主要因为美国总统特朗 普延迟决定是否介入以色列与伊朗间的军事冲突，缓和了 短期避险情绪。另外，上周的美联储会议鲍威尔会后表态 偏鹰，也压制金银价格走势。 ⚫ 6月21日，特朗普宣称美军已完成对伊朗三处核设施的袭 击，并在随后发表全国讲话时表示如果伊朗"不 ...