1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are long - term optimistic, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds should be kept under observation [1][5][6] - **Black building materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; glass suggests buying on dips [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper suggests holding long positions on dips; aluminum suggests buying on dips after pullbacks; nickel suggests observation or shorting on rallies; tin suggests range trading; gold suggests buying on dips; silver suggests range trading [1][10][11][17][18][19][20][21] - **Energy and chemical industry**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations; the 01 contract of soda ash suggests a short - selling strategy [1][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; PTA suggests range trading within 4500 - 4750; apples and jujubes are expected to be strongly oscillating [1][35][36][37][38] - **Agricultural and livestock industry**: Pigs and eggs suggest shorting on rallies; corn suggests wide - range oscillations; soybean meal suggests range oscillations; oils are expected to be strongly oscillating [1][40][43][45][47][49] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market has short - term fluctuations due to factors such as Trump's remarks on tariffs and geopolitical events, but a full - scale panic is unlikely. The long - term trends of industries like AI in China and the US are clear, and the US monetary and fiscal policies are in force [5] - In the commodity market, different products have different trends and investment strategies due to their own supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - environment impacts 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Index futures**: They are expected to oscillate and are long - term optimistic. Due to trade concerns, geopolitical events, and other factors, there may be short - term fluctuations, but full - scale panic is unlikely. Investors can either wait for better opportunities or lock in positions [5] - **Treasury bonds**: They should be kept under observation. Trump's remarks on retaliatory measures may cause short - term oscillations [6] 3.2 Black building materials - **Coking coal**: It is expected to oscillate. Affected by rainfall and weak demand, the pit - mouth price shows a differentiated trend [8] - **Rebar**: It is expected to oscillate. Currently, the price is under the cost of electric - arc furnace valley electricity and long - process production. In October, the price is expected to be weak first and then strong [8] - **Glass**: It suggests buying on dips. Although the current market has some supply - demand problems, under the background of policy expectations, the glass price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [9] 3.3 Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: It is expected to have high - level oscillations. Due to the intensification of Sino - US trade tensions, the price has dropped significantly recently, but the long - term supply - demand situation is still optimistic [10][11] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to have high - level oscillations. The supply of alumina is relatively loose, while the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily, and the demand is entering the peak season. Long positions can be held [12] - **Nickel**: It is expected to oscillate. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia has some uncertainties for the supply of nickel ore. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of nickel is in surplus, and it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: It is expected to oscillate. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is warming up. It is recommended to conduct range trading [18] - **Gold and silver**: They are expected to oscillate. Affected by factors such as the delay of non - farm payroll data and the risk of the US government shutdown, the prices are rising. It is recommended to trade cautiously after price pullbacks [19][20][21] 3.4 Energy and chemical industry - **PVC**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is at a high level, the demand is under pressure, and the inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract temporarily focuses on the pressure at 4850 [22][23] - **Caustic soda**: It is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract temporarily focuses on the range of 2380 - 2530. The market is affected by factors such as upstream inventory and downstream demand [24][25] - **Styrene**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply - demand situation is weak, and it focuses on the range of 6600 - 6900 [26][27] - **Rubber**: It is expected to oscillate. The supply growth expectation is strong, and it focuses on the support at 15000 [28][29] - **Urea**: It is expected to oscillate. The supply is increasing, the demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating [30] - **Methanol**: It is expected to oscillate. The supply in the mainland is recovering, and the demand for methanol - to - olefins is increasing [32] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to oscillate. The supply pressure is large after the festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The L2601 contract focuses on the support at 6900, and the PP2601 contract focuses on the support at 6600 [31][32][33] - **Soda ash**: The 01 contract suggests a short - selling strategy. The supply is abundant, the demand is flat, and the inventory is accumulating [33][34] 3.5 Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: They are expected to oscillate. The global cotton supply - demand situation has some changes, and there are uncertainties in Sino - US relations [35][36] - **PTA**: It suggests range trading within 4500 - 4750. Affected by factors such as oil prices and supply - demand relationships, the price is weakly oscillating [36] - **Apples and jujubes**: They are expected to be strongly oscillating. Apples are affected by weather, and jujubes are affected by factors such as production areas and market demand [37][38] 3.6 Agricultural and livestock industry - **Pigs**: They are overall under pressure. The supply is increasing, the demand is limited, and the price is weak in the short - term. Different contracts have different investment strategies [40][42] - **Eggs**: The rebound is under pressure. The short - term supply is sufficient, the demand is weakening, and different contracts have different investment strategies [43][44][45] - **Corn**: It suggests range oscillations. It is in the period of new and old crop connection, and the price is affected by factors such as new crop listing and demand [45][46] - **Soybean meal**: The rebound is limited. The US soybeans are affected by factors such as harvest pressure and Sino - US talks, and the domestic soybean meal is affected by import expectations [47][48] - **Oils**: They are in high - level adjustment. Short - term回调 risks are increasing, and it is recommended to wait for the end of the回调 before considering long positions [49][50][54]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 中美贸易摩擦再升级，贵金属或延续偏强运行 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-10-13 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 | ◆ 上周黄金白银冲高回落，但周线仍大幅上涨。主要影响因素分析如下：国庆假期，因美国联 | | 黄金相关数据指标跟踪 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 单位 | 本期 | 上一期 | 周度变化 | 周度涨跌幅 | | 邦政府时隔7年再度"停摆"、法国日本政治不确定提升等大幅提升市场避险情绪，与此同时，美 | | | | | | | | | 伦敦现货黄金 | 美元/盎司 | 4017.845 | 3885.660 | 132.185 | 3.40% | | 国9月ADP数据不及预期和市场担忧美国政府停摆将增加经济走弱风险，强化美联储10月降息预期， | 沪金主力 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector is experiencing significant gains, with notable increases in stock prices for companies such as Western Gold, Xiaocheng Technology, Zhaojin Gold, and Chifeng Gold, driven by macroeconomic factors and expectations of continued monetary easing [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the morning of October 13, the precious metals sector is active and strong, with Western Gold rising over 7%, Xiaocheng Technology up over 6%, Zhaojin Gold increasing over 5%, and Chifeng Gold gaining over 2% [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - Dongwu Securities highlights that following the key changes in the Federal Reserve's stance during the global central bank conference in August, the persistence of re-inflation and the decline in non-violent service sector inflation have become central to the current macroeconomic narrative [1] - The interplay between tariffs causing inflation to rise and the expectations of interest rate cuts leading to a decrease in nominal rates will continue to influence the market, indicating a period of rapidly declining real interest rates [1] - The outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations for continued strength in the sector [1]

高晓峰：10.13突破在即！黄金多头集结，新一轮上攻或将启动 从技术形态看，上周金价在成功测试3950美元关键支撑后企稳反弹，日线图上收出的带长下影线阳线， 明确显示了低位存在强劲的买盘兴趣。目前，价格正试图稳定于4010美元上方，这为后续挑战4080- 4100美元区间乃至历史高点奠定了基础。在四小时图上，布林带收口预示着金价可能进入高位整理。整 体技术结构偏向积极，只要不出现明确的反转信号，中长期走势仍乐观。 综合基本面与技术分析，当前操作的核心策略应坚持顺势而为，逢低做多。避免盲目猜测顶部，而应耐 心等待价格回调至关键支撑区域再行布局。日内操作上，下方需重点关注4030一线的支撑效力，回落至 此区域并出现企稳迹象时可考虑介入多单。上行目标则首先关注-4060美元的短期阻力，有效突破后有 望进一步向上测试前期高点乃至4100美元关口。总而言之，市场主导倾向未变，关键在于把握回调中的 进场时机。 文/高晓峰专业国际市场点评 ，本人解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资大趋势，对原油、黄金、白银等 大宗商品等有深入的研究，以上内容属于个人建议，因网络发文有时效性，仅供参考，风险自担，实时 思路现价给出， 美联储最新会 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The U.S. government is in a shutdown due to a lack of agreement on a temporary funding bill, leading to a focus on private sector data as official reports are absent. The ADP employment numbers for September showed a larger-than-expected decline, indicating a continued weakening trend in employment. Manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly rebounded but remains in contraction territory, with new orders reflecting weak demand in the manufacturing sector. Non-manufacturing PMI is also not optimistic, with price components slightly rising due to tariff cost transmission [2][3] - In Europe and Japan, political instability is evident with the resignation of the French Prime Minister and the election of a right-leaning leader in Japan, creating uncertainty in the political landscape. The European Central Bank has no immediate plans for rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan's rate hike process may slow down due to policy direction [3] - Domestic consumption has been boosted by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with service consumption growing faster than goods consumption. However, the real estate market shows signs of weakness, particularly in first-tier cities, and the central bank is expected to adopt a more flexible and anticipatory policy approach in the fourth quarter [2][3] Fixed Income Research - In Q3 2025, the central bank maintained support for the market with significant net injections through reverse repos and MLF, keeping funding prices low. The issuance of government bonds decreased, but net financing remained high due to reduced maturity volumes. The bond market showed a bear steepening trend, with investor confidence in buying bonds remaining low [5][6] - Looking ahead to Q4, the bond market is expected to remain under pressure, but the situation is anticipated to improve compared to Q3. The key indicators to watch include PPI, which will influence bond pricing. The central bank's continued support and potential resumption of bond purchases are expected to stabilize interest rates [6][7] Industry Research Metal Industry - The steel industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand post-holiday, but supply may also increase, making significant improvements in the fundamentals unlikely. The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is a key event to monitor for industry developments [8] - For copper, global supply remains tight, providing support for prices, but general demand and high prices may pressure future price increases. Aluminum prices are expected to face limitations due to high costs affecting purchasing sentiment [8][9] - Gold prices are influenced by the U.S. entering a rate cut cycle and political risks from the government shutdown. If the shutdown is resolved and economic data remains strong, gold may face short-term corrections [9][10] - Lithium supply concerns have eased with approvals for resource reports, but short-term oversupply pressures may affect prices. Rare earth prices are expected to remain volatile, influenced by domestic export policies and overseas demand [9][10] Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Industry - The recent World Lung Cancer Conference highlighted the R&D capabilities of Chinese pharmaceutical companies. The National Medical Products Administration has initiated the 11th round of centralized drug procurement [12][13] - The medical care CPI for August showed a 0.9% year-on-year increase, while the pharmaceutical manufacturing PPI decreased by 2.9%. Cumulative revenue and profit in the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector have declined by 2.0% and 3.9%, respectively, in the first eight months of 2025 [13] - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a pullback in September, with a focus on the upcoming ESMO conference and third-quarter earnings reports. There is potential for improvement in fundamentals, particularly in innovative drugs and medical devices [14][15]

本周内计划发布但同样可能延迟的数据包括：9月零售销售数据、9月生产者价格指数PPI（均于周四发 布），以及当周初请失业金人数；周五则将公布9月新屋开工数据与9月工业产出数据。 花旗分析师在报告中指出："受停摆影响，新数据供应稀缺，本月降息的可能性较大，且市场已完全消 化这一预期。"伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）数据显示，市场定价暗示美联储有望在10月29日的会议及 12月进一步降息。 编辑 | 格蕾丝 本周外盘看点 上周国际市场风云变幻，关税阴云再起，黄金再迎里程碑。美股全线下挫，道指周跌2.73%，纳指周跌 2.53%，标普500指数周跌2.43%。欧洲三大股指表现不佳，英国富时100指数周跌0.67%，德国DAX 30 指数周跌0.56%，法国CAC 40指数周跌2.02%。 本周看点颇多，市场持续关注美国政府停摆的相关进展以及美联储是否会释放进一步降息的信号。若停 摆持续，更多经济数据可能会延迟发布，此外多位美联储官员将发表例行讲话。在欧洲，通胀数据将影 响未来政策路径走向，英国与澳大利亚将公布关键就业数据。世界银行和国际货币基金组织（IMF）的 秋季年会召开，届时将公布最新经济展望。美股新财报季拉开帷 ...

金银为盾，稀土为矛 20251012 摘要 中国稀土出口管制及美国寻求海外稀土资源，使稀土板块重回投资者视 野，尽管有色板块情绪主要集中于贵金属和基本金属，但当前市场变化 可能推动稀土板块阶段性上行。 美国与巴基斯坦洽谈稀土矿产合作，对中国稀土产业链及进出口构成潜 在威胁，美国试图通过建立新港口控制周边矿产资源，对中国形成挑战。 中国采取对等反制措施，对稀土品种实施产品管辖，应对美国的长臂管 辖政策。美国投资加拿大矿业公司和澳大利亚 Fortescue，开发阿拉斯 加矿产，并试图控制格陵兰岛大型稀土矿，但这些项目短期内难以威胁 中国稀土产业链。 中国将进一步重组国内稀土冶炼厂，通过中西、北西两大主体并购不合 规冶炼厂，提高加工费并提升盈利能力。预计加工费将显著上涨，并通 过线上采购增加提高价格定价及监控能力，推动价格端上行。 黄金突破 4,000 美元/盎司，白银突破 50 美元/盎司，市场对此存在分歧。 贸易摩擦催化贵金属边际效应，预计黄金价格将继续上涨。LME 白银租 借利率超过 30%，库存固化导致流通量低，加剧银价上涨。 明年降息预期利好贵金属和工业金属，因此继续看好黄金、白银及相关 标的，包括一线票 ...

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 10 月 12 日 美国关税冲击再起，关注黄金、稀 土等板块 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报20251006-20251010 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.37%，深证成指下跌 1.26%，沪深 300 下跌 0.51%，有色金属（申万） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The recent U.S. Treasury market shows a significant rebound driven by interest rate cuts. With increasing signs of economic slowdown and delayed release of key data due to government shutdown, the market is fully betting on monetary easing. The probability of a 25bp rate cut in October is nearly 98%, and the probability of a cumulative 50bp rate cut by the end of the year exceeds 96%. This has led to a decline in the yields of 5 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasuries, indicating a sharp drop in market risk appetite and a return of safe - haven demand. At the same time, the decline in oil prices and the easing of the Middle East situation have strengthened the expectation of inflation decline, further increasing the buying of U.S. Treasuries and creating a loose resonance in the global bond market [6]. - However, the long - term support for U.S. Treasuries is undergoing structural changes. Foreign central banks are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries and increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a decline in trust in U.S. dollar assets. The market is worried about the U.S. debt reaching $37 trillion and the annualized interest expenditure exceeding military spending, which may trigger a debt critical - point risk. In the long run, the core logic of U.S. Treasuries is shifting from a simple safe - haven asset to a focus of the game between trust and risk re - balance. Short - term trends are dominated by interest rate cut expectations, while long - term trends depend on the U.S. fiscal path, international capital allocation, and re - verification of inflation data [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. U.S. Treasury Yield Review - As of October 10, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped 15bp in two weeks, falling to 4.05%. Compared with two weeks ago, the 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped 11bp, and the 30 - year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped 14bp. Both short - and long - term bond yields have declined in the past two weeks [2]. 2. U.S. Treasury Market Changes - In terms of actual bond issuance, the duration of U.S. Treasury issuance increased slightly in early October. The issuance amounts were $57.84 billion for 3 - year, $38.92 billion for 10 - year, and $21.96 billion for 30 - year bonds. The U.S. fiscal deficit in August was $344.8 billion, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit slightly declined to $1.89 trillion [2]. 3. Derivatives Market Structure - The net short positions in U.S. Treasury futures have slightly declined. As of September 23, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers have dropped to 5.738 million contracts. Meanwhile, the federal funds rate futures market remains in a net short position, rising to 395,400 contracts [2]. 4. U.S. Dollar Liquidity and U.S. Economy 4.1 Monetary Policy - On September 18, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25bp to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first rate cut in nine months this year. The Fed's statement showed increased concern about the labor market by deleting the description of "robust labor market conditions" and adding statements about "slowing employment growth, a slight increase in the unemployment rate, and increased risks of employment decline" [3]. 4.2 Fiscal Policy - As of October 8, the U.S. Treasury's TGA deposit balance increased by $2.572 billion on a two - week - on - two - week basis, indicating fiscal money withdrawal [3]. 4.3 Economic Indicators - As of October 4, the Fed's weekly economic indicator was 2.42 (2.07 two weeks ago), showing that the economy has improved after a short - term stabilization [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overseas market was significantly impacted by various factors this week, including government shutdowns, potential tariff hikes, and central bank policies. Market volatility increased, and risk - averse sentiment rose sharply [1][7]. - The opinions of Fed officials were divided this week, but the market's expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 both increased [2][3]. - The US government shutdown continued to affect the economy, and the situation of Sino - US tariffs and trade relations was tense [4][5]. - The overall overseas economic situation showed mixed trends. Some indicators improved, while others declined, and the future economic outlook was still uncertain [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overseas Market One - Week Review - **Equity Markets**: US stocks rose first and then fell sharply on Friday. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq fell 2.43%, 2.73%, and 2.53% respectively for the week ending October 10. European and Asian markets also showed different trends, with the German DAX and London FTSE 100 falling, while the Nikkei 225 rose [11]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar rose this week. The government shutdown and tariff risks increased risk - averse sentiment, and the possible loose monetary policy of Japan's new prime - ministerial candidate also pushed up the dollar. The dollar index rose 1.13% for the week [11]. - **Interest Rates**: US Treasury yields declined. The government shutdown and tariff events increased expectations of interest rate cuts and risk - averse sentiment, leading to a rise in US Treasuries. The 2Y and 10Y US Treasuries yields fell 6bp and 8bp respectively for the week [12]. - **Commodities**: Gold rose, while crude oil and copper fell. The government shutdown and Sino - US trade conflicts increased the demand for safe - haven assets [12]. 3.2 Overseas Policies and Important News 3.2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - Fed officials' stances were divided this week. Kashkari and Barr were hawkish, Milan and Williams were dovish, and Musalem and Waller were neutral. The September FOMC meeting minutes showed that most officials thought further policy easing this year might be appropriate [27]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 increased. As of October 11, the probability of two more interest rate cuts this year rose to 91.7%, and the market expected three more cuts in 2026 [3]. 3.2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - **Government Shutdown**: It has lasted for 12 days, reducing the US economic output by about $15 billion per week. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI report on October 24, and the federal government employee lay - off process has officially started [4]. - **Sino - US Tariffs and Trade**: China implemented export controls on certain items, counter - measures against US 301 investigations, and an anti - monopoly investigation into Qualcomm. Trump said the US would impose a 100% tariff on China starting November 1 and implement export controls on all key software [5]. 3.3 Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking 3.3.1 Overall Prosperity - Bloomberg's consensus expectations for GDP growth rates in the Eurozone and the US increased. As of October 10, Bloomberg expected the US economy to grow 1.79% in 2025 and the Eurozone economy to grow 1.3% [35]. - The Fed's real - time prediction model slightly lowered the GDP forecast. The New York Fed's Nowcast model lowered the Q3 US real GDP growth rate expectation to 2.34%, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model lowered it to 3.8% [37]. 3.3.2 Employment - The number of people receiving unemployment benefits decreased more than expected. As of the week ending September 20, the initial jobless claims were 218,000, and as of the week ending September 13, the continuing jobless claims decreased to 1.926 million [43]. 3.3.3 Demand - US retail sales slightly declined, airport security checks continued to be higher than last year. The real - estate market activity showed a significant recovery, with mortgage rates falling and mortgage application activity decreasing [49]. 3.3.4 Production - The production of US crude steel and the operation of refineries were stable, better than the same period last year. As of the week ending October 4, the weekly crude steel output was 1.749 million short tons, and the refinery capacity utilization rate was 92.4% [55]. 3.3.5 Shipping - International freight rates showed mixed trends this week. The Drewry World Container Freight Index (WCI) fell 1.1%, while the Baltic Dry Index, Panamax Freight Index, and Capesize Freight Index rose [57]. - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) fell. The export container indices of Ningbo and Shanghai rose, but the CCFI fell 6.7% week - on - week [60]. 3.3.6 Price - US retail gasoline prices continued to decline. As of October 10, the average price of AAA - grade gasoline was $3.089 per gallon. The inflation expectations in the US also decreased this week [62]. 3.3.7 Financial Conditions - The US financial stress index was stable. As of October 8, the OFR US financial stress index was - 1.12. The credit spread of CCC high - yield bonds rose, and the spread between SOFR and overnight reverse repurchase agreements decreased [66]. 3.4 Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders - Next week (October 13 - 17, 2025), key events include Fed Chairman Powell's speech, statements from multiple Fed officials, Sino - US tariff developments, and the release of US retail data, PPI inflation, and industrial output data (which may be delayed due to the government shutdown) [7].