核心矛盾：供给收缩难抵需求疲软，高库存持续压制 当前玻璃市场最核心的制约来自于下游房地产需求的季节性收缩与持续性不足。尽管供应端已开始主动调整——全国浮法玻璃日熔量从10月的约16万吨持续 下降至12月的15.5万吨左右，但这一收缩节奏仍未能完全匹配需求下滑的速度。这导致产业链库存消化缓慢，形成了对价格的持续压制。 最新的市场数据显示，需求承接力依然偏弱。截至12月18日，全国玻璃样本企业总库存为5855.8万重箱，较前一周增加0.57万重箱，尽管企业主动降价出货 仍然持续，但去库进程出现减缓迹象。此外，企业库存的下滑的同时，社会库存高企，这表明，库存只是转移，而非终端需求的好转。因此，高库存压力并 未根本解除，成为反弹路上的"沉重枷锁"。 【摘要】玻璃期货本周出现反弹，但周五回落较多，市场仍显犹豫。那么玻璃期货为何反弹持续性较弱，期价还会继续下探吗？ 【温馨提醒】市场风云变幻，期市波动起伏。光靠看盘可不够！加入我们的专属社群，专业分析师实时直播、金牌客服推送核心研报等。点击专属客服通 道，立即加入交流群！立即进群>> 玻璃期价短暂反弹后再转弱 玻璃期价本周出现反弹，反弹幅度一度超过6%，但周五出现明显回落。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are supported by the cost side but suppressed by weakening demand and potential tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - After macro - events are settled, the trading logic of iron ore returns to fundamentals. With restrained shipments, steel mills' restocking needs, and coking coal price concessions, the downside space of iron ore prices is expected to be limited [20] - As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the inventory structure of coking coal is expected to improve. Coke spot still has room for price cuts from a valuation perspective, and attention should be paid to the progress of the steel mills' third - round price cut [29] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are currently weak. Although the futures prices rebounded due to relevant policies, the rebound may stimulate enterprises to hedge and suppress prices [45] - With the strengthening expectation of new capacity production, the over - supply expectation of soda ash is intensifying. The weakening demand from glass and high inventories restrict the price of soda ash [59] - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may undergo cold - repair, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. Currently, high intermediate inventories and off - season demand put pressure on the spot market [82] Summary by Directory Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3120, 3119, and 3151 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3276, 3269, and 3282 yuan/ton respectively [4] - The month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different changes compared to the previous day [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis** - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions had minor changes on December 19, 2025. For example, the rebar summary price in China was 3325 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton [8][10] - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed slightly [8][10] - **Other Ratios** - The 01, 05, and 10 contract ratios of rebar to iron ore were all 4; the ratios of rebar to coke were all 2 on December 19, 2025 [17] Iron Ore - **Price Data** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 798, 780, and 758 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 1, 2.5, and 3 yuan/ton respectively [21] - The basis of different contracts showed a downward trend [21] - **Fundamental Data** - The daily average pig iron output was 226.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 tons; the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81.21 tons [24] Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios** - On December 19, 2025, the spreads of coking coal and coke contracts showed different changes compared to the previous day. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 195 yuan/ton [32] - The coking profit, mine - coke ratio, etc. also changed [32] - **Spot Prices and Profits** - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had minor changes. The immediate coking profit was 24 yuan/ton [35] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron** - On December 19, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 90 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 48 yuan/ton; the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5300 yuan/ton [46] - **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 82 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 28 yuan/ton; the silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5500 yuan/ton [47] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 1120, 1176, and 1236 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 17, 17, and 14 yuan/ton respectively [60] - The month - spreads also changed [60] - **Spot Prices and Basis** - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained stable. The basis of soda ash in different regions showed a downward trend [60] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of glass 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 941, 1041, and 1138 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 12, 21, and 18 yuan/ton respectively [83] - The month - spreads and basis of glass contracts changed [83] - **Sales and Production Data** - The sales - to - production ratios of glass in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, etc. showed different trends in December 2025 [84]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: BR Rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil [1] - **Neutral (Oscillation)**: Bonds, Agricultural Products, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium), Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Soybeans, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Benzene - Naphtha, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak trend, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks [1] - The market sentiment is volatile, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels for some products [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Short - term weak operation, long - term upward potential. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period [1] - **Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: High - level wide - range oscillation due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating macro sentiment [1] - **Alumina**: Weak domestic fundamentals, short - term price rebound but limited upward drive [1] - **Zinc**: Fundamentals improved, cost center shifted up, but price is under pressure. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - **Nickel**: After a sharp decline, there is a demand for position - reduction repair. Short - term trading is recommended, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading is recommended, waiting for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] - **Tin**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the cooling of the US CPI in November, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest, reduced production in the southwest, and decreased production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, marginal improvement in terminal installation in the fourth quarter, and strong price - holding and low - delivery willingness of large enterprises [1] - **Lithium**: In the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand, increased production on the supply side, and the potential to break through previous highs [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Roll over and take profits on cash - and - carry positions. Valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon**: Prices are under pressure due to weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Supply and demand provide support, valuation is low, but short - term price fluctuations are strong [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a decline, there are signs of stabilization. Pay attention to winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises this week [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term short - selling is recommended due to continuous negative high - frequency data and high pressure on the origin [1] - **Soybeans**: Pay attention to the negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to short the 05 contract as the near - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be exhausted [1] - **Cotton**: The market is currently supported but lacks a driving force. Pay attention to relevant policies and market conditions in the future [1] - **Sugar**: There is a consensus on short - selling, but there is strong cost support below. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1] - **Wheat and Corn**: The short - term decline is limited by farmers' price - holding sentiment and downstream stocking demand before the Spring Festival [1] - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] - **Logs**: The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly as it approaches the delivery month [1] - **Live Pigs**: Production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Affected by OPEC+ production - suspension, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [1] - **Bitumen**: Follows crude oil in the short term, with high profit and possible falsification of the 14th - Five - Year Plan's rush - demand [1] - **BR Rubber**: Bullish due to improved cost - side support, increased sales, and high operating rates [1] - **PTA and Short - Fiber**: The PTA device operates at a high load, and short - fiber prices follow costs closely [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices decline due to inventory accumulation and weakening cost support [1] - **Benzene - Naphtha**: There is slight cost - side support, but overall production economy is negative, and inventory is high [1] - **Urea, Propylene, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: Prices oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost changes, and reduced anti - involution sentiment [1] - **LPG**: The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and prices oscillate after a decline. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1] Other - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was less than expected, and the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; expect government bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - Black building materials: Short-term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; sell on rallies for glass [1][8][9] - Non-ferrous metals: Reduce positions on rallies for copper and replenish on low-level stabilization; strengthen observation for aluminum; observe or sell on rallies for nickel; range trading for tin, gold; hold long positions for silver and be cautious about new positions; expect lithium carbonate to trade with a strong bias [1][11][12][18][19] - Energy and chemicals: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol; expect polyolefins to trade with a weak bias; temporarily observe caustic soda and soda ash [1][21][22][23][25][26][28] - Cotton textile industry chain: Bullish with a bias for cotton and cotton yarn; expect PTA to rise in a range; bearish with a bias for apples and jujubes [1][30][31][32] - Agricultural and livestock products: Short-term short-selling on rallies for near-term contracts of live pigs and cautious bullishness for far-term contracts; expect eggs to trade in a range; be cautious about chasing highs in the short term for corn and hedge on rallies for grain holders; range trading for soybean meal, with a bullish bias for near-term contracts and a bearish bias for far-term contracts; be cautious about short-selling for oils and fats [1][34][35][36][37] Core Views - The report provides trading strategies for various futures products in different industries, considering factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and policy impacts. It emphasizes the importance of risk management and the need for investors to make decisions based on their own investment goals and risk tolerance [1][5][8][9][11][12][18][19][21][22][23][25][26][28][30][31][32][34][35][36][37] Summary by Industry Macro-finance - Stock indices are expected to trade in a range in the short term but are bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips, as US inflation has slowed more than expected [5] - Government bonds are expected to trade in a range, with short - term rates potentially stabilizing if long - term yields do not reach new highs and funding rates remain stable [5] Black building materials - Coking coal market is in a tug - of - war between strong bearish factors and weak bullish factors, with short - term trading recommended [8] - Rebar is expected to trade in a range, with low valuation and weak driving forces, and a weak downward trend [9] - Glass is expected to trade weakly, with a strategy of selling on rallies due to high inventory, weak demand, and potential supply increases [9][10] Non-ferrous metals - Copper is expected to trade in a high - level range, with a strategy of reducing positions on rallies and replenishing on low - level stabilization, due to short - term overheating and potential technical adjustments [11] - Aluminum is expected to rebound, but investors are advised to strengthen observation due to factors such as changes in ore prices, production capacity, and demand [12] - Nickel is expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of observing or selling on rallies, as the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to be in surplus [16] - Tin is expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of range trading, considering factors such as supply tightness and potential demand recovery [17][18] - Silver and gold are expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of holding long positions for silver and range trading for gold, as the medium - term price centers are expected to rise [18] - Lithium carbonate is expected to trade with a strong bias, with attention paid to supply disruptions and demand trends [19] Energy and chemicals - PVC is expected to trade in a low - level range, with weak fundamentals but potential support from low valuation and policy or cost changes [19][21] - Caustic soda is expected to trade in a low - level range, with investors advised to temporarily observe due to high inventory and potential impacts from alumina production [21] - Styrene is expected to trade in a range, with a focus on changes in pure benzene prices and crude oil pricing [22][23] - Rubber is expected to trade in a wide - range, with support from supply disruptions but limited upside due to high inventory and weak demand [23][24] - Urea is expected to trade in a range, with a relatively stable supply - demand pattern [24][25] - Methanol is expected to trade in a range, with supply recovery, high - level but slightly declining downstream demand, and inventory reduction [26] - Polyolefins are expected to trade with a weak bias, with a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [26][27] - Soda ash investors are advised to temporarily observe, as the supply - demand contradiction may be alleviated after supply contraction and there is cost support [28] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade with a strong bias, as recent domestic cotton sales are fast and yarn prices are firm [30] - PTA is expected to rise in a range, driven by rising crude oil prices and supply - demand inventory reduction [30][31] - Apples and jujubes are expected to trade with a weak bias, with slow inventory sales [31][32] Agricultural and livestock products - Live pigs are expected to form a bottom in a range, with short - term supply pressure and long - term potential for price recovery after capacity reduction [32][34] - Eggs are expected to trade in a range, with short - term stability, medium - term improvement in supply - demand balance, and long - term supply pressure [34][35][36] - Corn is expected to trade with a weak bias, with short - term selling pressure and long - term support from demand recovery but limited upside [36] - Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range, with a bullish bias for near - term contracts and a bearish bias for far - term contracts [37] - Oils and fats are expected to have intensified corrections, and investors are advised to be cautious about short - selling [37][38][39][40][41][42]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-19 玻璃纯碱：宏观氛围偏暖，玻碱小幅反弹 市场分析 昨日玻璃期货震荡上行，盘面成交活跃。现货方面，整体偏弱运行，以低价刚需采购为主。据隆众数据显示：本 周浮法玻璃总库存5855.8万重箱，环比上涨0.57%。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，供需矛盾依旧存在。玻璃刚需依旧缺乏起色，且伴随淡季 到来，刚需仍有进一步回落预期，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需求帶来的扰动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货震荡上行，成本支撑发力。现货方面，市场报价弱稳，整体涨跌不一，以刚需采购为主。 据隆众数据显示：本周纯碱产量72.14万吨，环比减少1.9%；库存149.93万吨，环比增加0.33%。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。库存高位震荡，且 考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 市场情绪谨慎，钢价持续震荡 风险 宏观及房地产政策、光伏产业投产、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等 双硅：钢材消 ...

华龙证券近日发布建筑材料行业月报：11月份，南方市场进入年末赶工旺季，但受工程项目资金紧张影 响，市场旺季不旺，全国水泥需求恢复较弱，1-11月全国累计水泥产量同比降幅扩大，单月水泥产量同 比也呈现较大下降，但环比有所增长。 玻璃行业：预计下期浮法玻璃市场维持低位震荡走势为主。供应面，本月生产线放水增多，后期仍存在 部分生产线冷修预期，供应量将呈现下降趋势。但需求面，因目前已临近年底，部分偏北方地区需求已 逐渐萎缩，中南部地区虽仍存部分刚需支撑，但力度或将一般，加之局部地区中游库存较大，所以整体 来看供需压力仍存。另一方面，由于价格已降至低位，继续下行空间已十分有限，不排除部分业者存在 低价补库备货的需求。所以整体来看，价格上行动力不足，而下行空间亦有限，预计12月份市场价格仍 延续窄幅震荡格局。个股方面关注行业龙头旗滨集团（601636.SH）。 玻璃纤维：从价格表现看，结合市场数据与实际报价，高端电子纱/布领域，G75纱11月价格回升至9200 元/吨，较10月上涨100元/吨；7628电子布同步回升至4.1元/米，尤其终端AI领域需求的特种电子布供需 紧俏，价格涨幅更突出。风电、热塑等高端粗纱方面，龙头 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Market is in a short - term long - short stalemate. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,000 - 15,500. Supply - side support exists due to geopolitical tensions in Thailand and domestic产区停割, while demand - side growth is restricted by slow tire sales and low profits in some sectors [1]. Polyolefins - Both polyethylene and polypropylene face a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [4]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating higher. The port market may be weak in the near term due to Iranian supply, while the inland market has increasing supply and demand. The 05 contract can be considered for long positions after reduced shipments [6][8]. LPG No specific overall view is provided other than presenting price, inventory, and开工率 data [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to have limited downside. The BZ2603 may oscillate between 5,300 - 5,600. Styrene has limited driving force and is expected to be weak in the short - term [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Rolling low - buying operations are recommended. - PTA: TA rolling low - buying and TA5 - 9 low - level positive spreads are suggested. - Ethylene Glycol: Short - term low - level oscillation is expected, and selling EG2605 - C - 4100 is advisable to obtain time value. - Short - fiber: It follows raw material fluctuations, and the disk processing fee can be shorted when it is high. - Polyester Bottle Chips: Selling PR2602 - P - 5500 is recommended, and the main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [15]. Crude Oil - The market is greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Brent crude should be monitored at the $60/barrel level. Attention should be paid to US - Russia talks, Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and the US - Venezuela situation [16]. Urea - The 2605 contract's main logic is the support of spring plowing fertilizer demand under high - supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether the price can stabilize at 1,700 and the spirit of the urea meeting [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak. PVC supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and the price outlook is not optimistic. Short - term observation and shorting on rebounds are recommended [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The supply - demand situation is bearish, and short - selling opportunities after rebounds should be noted. - Glass: The market has pressure, and the 01 contract will follow the delivery logic in December, while the 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole latex remained unchanged at 15,050 yuan/ton; the whole - milk basis increased by 20.59%. Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.68% to 14,550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 16.67%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 66.67% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, Thailand's production decreased by 0.29%, Indonesia's by 1.53%, and China's by a certain amount. November domestic tire production increased by 3.96%, and exports increased by 9.36% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded - area inventory increased by 2.08%, and上期所factory - warehouse futures inventory increased by 3.87% [1]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot Prices**: L2601 and L2605 decreased slightly, PP2601 increased by 0.10%, and PP2605 decreased by 0.40%. Some spot prices changed slightly [4]. - **Spreads**: L15, PP15, and LP01 spreads changed to different extents [4]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: PE downstream weighted开工率 decreased by 1.28%, and some PP开工率 and inventory indicators changed [4]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 10.86%, while port inventory decreased by 1.26% [7]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators increased or decreased [8]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: PG2601, PG2602, and PG2603 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [12]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory increased [12]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators changed [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: Some prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene changed [14]. - **Inventory**: Benzene and styrene port inventories changed [14]. - **开工率**: Some开工率 indicators of the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Crude oil, PX, and polyester product prices changed to different extents [15]. - **Spreads**: PX - related spreads, PTA - related spreads, and MEG - related spreads changed [15]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Some开工率 indicators and MEG port inventory changed [15]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased, and some spreads changed [16]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: Some refined oil prices and spreads changed [16]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Some refined oil crack spreads changed [16]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices changed, and some spot prices changed [18]. - **Spreads and Positions**: Some spreads and positions changed [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and订单天数 changed [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Some prices of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Some overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**:开工率, demand - side开工率, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass and Soda Ash Prices**: Some prices of glass and soda ash changed [20]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash开工率, production, and inventory, as well as glass inventory and some related data changed [20]. - **Real Estate Data**: Some real - estate data changed [20].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-19 冬储预期配合供给扰动，盘⾯延续反弹 淡季供需双弱，其中螺纹钢基本⾯仍有韧性，热卷库存压⼒仍存，基 本⾯难⾔亮点，但冬储补库预期叠加成本⽀撑，盘⾯低位反弹。同时 冬储补库预期⽀撑下铁矿盘⾯表现较强，供给扰动⽀撑煤焦估值修复 反弹。玻纯盘⾯价格低位震荡，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上⽅空间。 淡季供需双弱，其中螺纹钢基本面仍有韧性，热卷库存压力仍存，基 本面难言亮点，但冬储补库预期叠加成本支撑，盘面低位反弹。同时 冬储补库预期支撑下铁矿盘面表现较强，供给扰动支撑煤焦估值修复 反弹。玻纯盘面价格低位震荡，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上方空间。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水继续下滑，刚需支撑减弱，港口库存累积，钢 厂补库需求仍未明显释放，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢供减需稳， 钢厂库存偏高，补库放缓，但电炉利润尚可，长、短流程钢企废钢需 求仍有支撑，预计现货价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭现货短期虽仍有一轮补跌预期，但随着焦钢企 业原料冬储补库，成本端有望企稳，对现货价格提供支撑，盘面估值 仍有修复空间，预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关 ...

12月18日，国内期市能化板块多数飘红。其中，玻璃期货行情呈现震荡上行走势，截至发稿主力合约报 1068.00元/吨，大幅上涨2.89%。 供应端，迈科期货指出，玻璃产量环比下滑。当前玻璃厂利润走弱，叠加玻璃厂库存偏高，可能引发后 续玻璃厂冷修预期，重点关注玻璃供应情况。 需求方面，中财期货分析称，近期价格稳中偏弱，下游维持刚需提货，长期仍显疲态，加工厂暂以刚需 提货为主，北方局部市场需求有所下降，但整体需求仍相对稳定。 库存方面，据瑞达期货（002961）介绍，截至2025年12月11日全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存5822.7万重 箱，环比-121.6万重箱，环比-2.05%，同比+22.26%。折库存天数26.3天，较上期-0.5天。 对于后市走势，新世纪期货表示，随着绝对价格下行，宏观情绪持续发酵，外围冷修逐渐出现，叠加年 底计划内冷修落地，玻璃出现大幅反弹。浮法玻璃样本企业总库存延续去库，续创10月份以来新低，但 同比仍旧增加超过两成。现实端，房地产竣工持续下行拖累需求前景，玻璃需求整体偏弱，关注宏观以 及产线冷修情况能否给市场带来契机。 ...

| 聚烯烃产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月18日 | | | | 张晓珍 | Z0003135 | | 品种 | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 活的关 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | L2601收盘价 | 6439 | 6516 | -77 | -1.18% | 元/吨 | | L2605 收盘价 | 6479 | 6543 | -64 | -0.98% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6196 | 6192 | 4 | 0.06% | | | PP2605 收盘价 | 6254 | 6256 | -2 | -0.03% | | | L15价差 | -40 | -27 | -13 | -48.15% | | | PP15价差 | -58 | -64 | 6 | 9.38% | | | LP01价差 | 243 | 324 | -81 | -25.00% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货价格 | 6120 | 6110 | 10 | 0.16% | | ...