Report Summary Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The crude oil market is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile, and the intraday trend being volatile and slightly stronger. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Tuesday [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Trends - For the crude oil 2509 contract, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term trend is volatile, and the intraday trend is volatile and slightly stronger, with a reference view of strong operation [1]. 2. Price and Logic - After a significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased again, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. Although eight major oil - producing countries in OPEC and non - OPEC decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, the negative impact of the production increase is gradually digested, and the future room for further production expansion is limited. Last Friday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed down 1.20% to 509.1 yuan per barrel [5].

Report Overview - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - In the peak season, the single - week crude oil consumption is slightly lower than expected, but there are no new negatives in the market. Oil prices are still supported and are expected to have an upward space. It is necessary to continue to track consumption and Saudi supply changes [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: WTI's opening price was $67.35, closing at $66.03, with a high of $68.16, a low of $64.38, a decline of 1.96%, and a trading volume of 118.97 million lots. Brent's opening price was $70.50, closing at $69.23, with a high of $71.53, a low of $67.71, a decline of 1.98%, and a trading volume of 177.53 million lots. SC's opening price was 517.7 yuan/barrel, closing at 512.3 yuan/barrel, with a high of 520.4, a low of 511.3, a decline of 3.70%, and a trading volume of 15.04 million lots [6] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The three major institutions' July reports show little adjustment on the demand side. On the supply side, except for Kazakhstan, seven other countries have completed compensatory production cuts according to OPEC. There are differences in the prediction of Saudi Arabia's crude oil production among the three institutions this month. IEA expects Saudi production to reach 9.8 million barrels per day, while OPEC and EIA expect around 9.3 million barrels per day. High - frequency data shows that US refined oil consumption is slightly lower than expected, and the apparent demand for gasoline and diesel has declined [6] 3.2 Industry News - Iran has no plan to negotiate with the US currently [8] - Turkey hopes to start a new and dynamic stage for the Iraq - Turkey oil pipeline [8] - Barclays maintains its forecast of Brent crude oil price at $72 per barrel in 2025 and $70 per barrel in 2026 [8] - The EU cancels the license for the Czech Republic to import oil from Russia [8] - The UK sanctions Russia's oil export and intelligence agencies, and together with the EU, lowers the "price cap" of Russian oil exports from $60 per barrel to $47.6 per barrel [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, and various oil price charts, with data sources from CFTC, EIA, wind, Bloomberg, etc. [10][11][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of WTI $70.4/barrel is given, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits [2]. - For methanol, after the emotional boost fades, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see or use it as a short - position allocation within the sector [2]. - For urea, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom but is also restricted by high supply at the top. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [4]. - For rubber, the price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish strategy is recommended for the medium - term, while a neutral and quick - in - quick - out strategy is suggested for the short - term [11]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the market is mainly focused on the transition from de - stocking to re - stocking. The price will be under pressure in the future [13]. - For benzene styrene, the BZN spread is expected to recover, and the price is likely to fluctuate following the cost side [16]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to oscillate downward in July [18]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in July under the background of weak supply and demand [19]. - For PX, the inventory is expected to continue to decline in the third quarter, and it is recommended to go long at low prices following the trend of crude oil [23]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and it is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the short - term valuation has upward momentum, but the fundamentals will turn weak in the future [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: On July 22, 2025, WTI主力原油期货 fell $0.23, or 0.34%, to $67.07; Brent主力原油期货 fell $0.14, or 0.20%, to $69.09; INE主力原油期货 rose 6.10 yuan, or 1.15%, to 538.1 yuan. Chinese weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 206.30 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.14 million barrels to 90.97 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.81 million barrels to 101.77 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 0.32 million barrels to 192.74 million barrels [1]. Chemicals Methanol - On July 21, the 09 contract rose 46 yuan/ton to 2411 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 13 yuan/ton with a basis of - 13. The upstream operating rate continued to decline, and overseas device operating rates returned to medium - high levels. The overall demand performance was weak, and the spot valuation was still high [2]. Urea - On July 21, the 09 contract rose 67 yuan/ton to 1812 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton with a basis of + 8. The domestic operating rate declined slightly, and the demand from compound fertilizers and exports provided support [4]. Rubber - On July 22, NR and RU continued to rise strongly. The overall sentiment in the commodity market was bullish. The bullish view for natural rubber RU was based on potential production cuts in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. The bearish view was due to uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal demand slumps, and potential under - expected production cuts [8][15]. PVC - On July 22, the PVC09 contract rose 181 yuan to 5118 yuan. The overall operating rate rose, but the downstream operating rate declined. The factory inventory decreased, while the social inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak, and the price would face pressure [13]. Benzene Styrene - The spot and futures prices rose, and the basis weakened. The cost - end pure benzene operating rate increased, and the supply was abundant. The port inventory increased significantly, and the demand - end three - S overall operating rate rose. The price was expected to fluctuate following the cost side [16]. Polyolefins - **Polyethylene**: The futures price rose. The EU's sanctions on Russia affected the market. The trade - merchant inventory was high, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to oscillate downward in July [18]. - **Polypropylene**: The futures price rose. The Shandong refinery profit rebounded, and the supply was expected to increase. The downstream operating rate declined seasonally, and the price was expected to be bearish in July [19]. Polyester - **PX**: On July 22, the PX09 contract rose 52 yuan to 6862 yuan. The Chinese and Asian operating rates were 81.1% and 73.6% respectively. The inventory was low, and the valuation was at a neutral level. It was recommended to go long at low prices following crude oil [21][23]. - **PTA**: On July 22, the PTA09 contract rose 36 yuan to 4780 yuan. The operating rate remained unchanged, and the downstream operating rate declined. The supply was expected to accumulate inventory, and it was recommended to go long at low prices following PX [24]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On July 22, the EG09 contract rose 34 yuan to 4410 yuan. The supply - end operating rate declined, and the downstream operating rate also declined. The port inventory decreased. The short - term valuation had upward momentum, but the fundamentals would turn weak [25].

Core Insights - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo highlighted China's commitment to deepening cooperation in global supply chains amidst the restructuring of global industrial chains [1] - The "Global Supply Chain Promotion Report" presented at the expo emphasized that enhancing global supply chain resilience relies on the synergy of development environment, connectivity, and innovation capabilities [1] - The report introduced a new paradigm for supply chain management, suggesting that resilience is achieved through dynamic balance across the entire supply chain rather than strengthening individual segments [1] Group 1: Supply Chain Resilience - Supply chain vulnerabilities often stem from price fluctuations and supply disruptions, with the futures market emerging as a key tool for risk management [1] - Futures markets provide hedging and basis trading models that help companies build risk management systems to cope with price volatility, thereby enhancing supply chain resilience and promoting international cooperation [2] Group 2: Futures Market Impact - The introduction of lumber futures in November 2024 is expected to provide a fair and authoritative price benchmark for trade and processing enterprises, improving pricing transparency and standardization across the industry [2] - The plastic industry has seen significant changes, with domestic companies increasingly participating in international supply chains, and plastic futures becoming an important pricing benchmark for domestic spot trading [3] - The comprehensive layout of futures for crude oil, fuel oil, and other energy products provides a buffer against price fluctuations, while the launch of carbon lithium futures supports the development of the new energy industry [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - As the international influence of China's futures market grows, domestic companies can leverage price signals from the futures market to secure better conditions in international trade, enhancing competitiveness and promoting deeper integration of global supply chains [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the current market situation and future expectations [2][3][4] - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as international policies, economic data, supply and demand relationships, and seasonal patterns, and the trends of different products vary [15][16][20] Summary by Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices declined, with Brent 09 contract down 1.98% and SC09 contract up 2.3%. After the EU's 18th round of sanctions against Russia, oil prices first rose and then fell. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened, and the oil price trend has shifted from strong to volatile [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Under the OPEC+ production increase path, there is an expected increase in the supply of high - sulfur heavy resources. The impact of sanctions on major high - sulfur fuel oil producing areas is limited, and demand lacks drive. FU cracking continues to decline. LU's unilateral trend follows crude oil, but its increase has been less than that of SC since mid - July, and its cracking has also declined [21] - **Asphalt**: In August, refinery production is expected to decline significantly compared to July. Social inventory has slightly increased, while factory inventory has decreased significantly. Overall, supply increase resilience needs to be observed, demand remains weak but has recovery expectations, and low inventory supports prices, with the BU price showing an upward trend [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Middle - East production pressure persists, and overseas prices continue to fluctuate weakly. Import costs have declined, but PDH margins remain stable. Domestic supply and demand are both weak, and the domestic gas price is under pressure at the top. The market is in a summer off - season pattern, and the futures price fluctuates weakly [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The recent macro - sentiment is positive, and precious metals are relatively stable. Due to high uncertainty in US tariff policies, precious metals are mainly in a volatile state, and the gold - silver ratio still has room to decline [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Last Friday, LME copper rose close to $9,800, and SHFE copper's main contract shifted to 2509. The domestic copper industry's capacity regulation space is limited. The previous 2508 option portfolio expired this week [4] - **Aluminum**: Affected by the news of the upcoming ten - key - industry growth - stabilization plan, non - ferrous metals are generally strong. Aluminum ingot and billet inventory accumulation is not smooth, and SHFE aluminum may maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term [5] - **Zinc**: Black prices have rebounded, and the market sentiment has improved. The import window is closed, and the external market drives the internal market up. However, downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is low, and supply is expected to increase. The SHFE zinc term structure has flattened, and it is still considered a rebound - under - pressure situation [8] - **Lead**: Both domestic and foreign inventories have increased, and the export of lead - acid batteries is affected by tariffs. The price has declined. However, the cost support is strong. The price has stopped falling at 16,800 yuan/ton and may face resistance at the previous high of 17,800 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel has rebounded, and the market trading is active. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, and inventory has increased. Technically, SHFE nickel still has room to rebound, and short - selling opportunities are awaited [10] - **Tin**: LME tin has been volatile, and SHFE tin is supported at 260,000 yuan. The main contract has shifted to 2509. Social inventory has increased. High - level short positions from the previous period are held [11] - **Other Metal - related Products** - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows SHFE aluminum and is in a strong - volatile state, but trading is inactive. Despite weak industrial demand, scrap aluminum supply is tight, and it may be more resilient than aluminum prices [6] - **Alumina**: On Friday night, alumina prices rose sharply. Supply - side policy expectations have strengthened, but domestic operating capacity has reached a historical high, and there is a possibility of mine restart in Guinea. After the sharp rise driven by expectations, there is a risk of correction [7] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: As of July 15, about 7% of US soybean - producing areas were affected by drought. The US - India trade agreement and Indonesia's potential B50 biodiesel plan have boosted US agricultural product prices. In China, oil - mill operating rates are high, and soybean - meal inventory is increasing. The price of soybean meal is mainly guided by US soybean - producing area weather [36] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil and Palm Oil)**: Palm oil has risen strongly, and soybean oil has followed. Indonesia's potential increase in biodiesel blending ratio and the competitiveness of its palm oil in the export market have pushed up prices. Long - term, a long - at - low strategy is recommended for vegetable oils [37] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed exports may be affected by Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to be volatile in the short term, and factors such as weather, policies, and biodiesel should be monitored [38] - **Corn**: Dalian corn rose on Friday night. Cofco's increased auctions have affected market expectations, and the auction success rate of US - imported corn was low. Dalian corn futures may continue to bottom - oscillate [40] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: Pig prices have rebounded slightly. However, the overall supply is abundant in the medium - term, and the industry can participate in short - hedging at high prices [41] - **Eggs**: Large - sized egg prices have strengthened slightly, while small - sized egg prices have weakened. Cold - storage eggs are being released, suppressing price increases. Long - term, the egg - price cycle has not bottomed out [42] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton has risen continuously, but there are concerns about a potential short - squeeze. Pure - cotton yarn prices have increased, but downstream procurement is still cautious. Attention should be paid to the impact of the textile - industry growth - stabilization plan [43] - **Sugar**: US sugar is in a downward trend, and the Brazilian production outlook is negative. In China, sugar imports are low, and domestic sugar sales are fast. The uncertainty of Guangxi's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased, and sugar prices are expected to be volatile [44] - **Apples**: Apple futures are volatile. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and prices have increased year - on - year. The market is focused on new - season yield estimates, and a short - biased strategy is recommended [45] - **Wood and Pulp** - **Wood**: Wood futures have rebounded significantly. Spot prices are stable, and due to low inventory and historical - low prices, there is an expectation of price increase. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the upward momentum is insufficient [46] - **Pulp**: Pulp futures have continued to rise. Port inventory has decreased, but domestic imports are still high. Demand is in the traditional off - season, and a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [47] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index**: A - shares have increased in volume and oscillated higher. US economic data has been positive, and policies have boosted market risk appetite. Foreign institutions are optimistic about the Chinese economy, and a strategy of increasing technology - growth stocks on the basis of dividend - asset allocation is recommended [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury - bond futures have oscillated. The market has fully priced in the expectation of monetary easing. In the short - term, there is a risk of increased volatility [49] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot market is still strong, and most airlines may raise prices in early August. The market is in a game between strong reality and weak expectations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations [20] Chemicals - **Methanol**: Methanol imports have increased significantly, and port inventory has accumulated rapidly. Domestic producers are planning autumn maintenance, but some may postpone it due to good profits. Demand is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to macro and downstream - device changes [25] - **Pure Benzene**: Domestic pure - benzene production has increased slightly, and port supply is abundant. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage, but pressure in the fourth quarter. A month - spread band - trading strategy is recommended [26] - **Styrene**: Styrene futures are in a consolidation pattern. Main - port inventory has increased significantly, and the basis has weakened, dragging down the futures market [27] - **Polypropylene and Polyethylene**: The cost - side oil price is volatile. Polyethylene supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Polypropylene has some support from ongoing maintenance, but downstream demand is still sluggish [28] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: Affected by the news of backward - capacity elimination, PVC has shown a strong trend. Caustic soda is also strong, but there are concerns about long - term supply increases and weak downstream acceptance [29] - **PX and PTA**: PTA's processing margin is low, and demand is weak, which drags down PX. There are expectations of PTA processing - margin repair [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic production has declined, and port inventory has decreased. The price has strengthened, and a short - term long - position strategy is recommended [31] - **Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chips**: Short - fiber production has increased, and inventory has decreased slightly. Bottle - grade chips production has decreased, and inventory has increased slightly. The short - fiber spot processing margin has repaired, while the bottle - grade chips processing margin has oscillated [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market has limited supply - demand contradictions, with high - profit incentives for high production. There is a good price upward expectation in the peak season. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and wait and see. The PVC market has a weak supply - demand situation, with inventory accumulation pressure. It is advisable to wait and see due to policy and information fluctuations [23]. - **Urea**: The core driver of the urea futures market is the change in demand, especially the weakening of agricultural demand. The supply - side surplus pressure and high inventory also affect the market. The new round of Indian tender provides short - term benefits, but the suspension of small - particle bulk exports suppresses market sentiment [27]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: In July, the PX supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to operate PX09 in the 6600 - 6900 range. The PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to operate TA in the 4600 - 4800 range. The short - term supply - demand of ethylene glycol is expected to improve, and it is recommended to sell put options EG2509 - P - 4300 at low prices. The short - fiber market has a weak supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to operate PFO9 in the 6300 - 6500 range. The bottle - chip supply - demand has an improvement expectation, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing fee in the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [30]. - **Methanol**: Inland methanol prices fluctuate slightly. The port basis strengthens, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation from July to August, with weak prices [34]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The pure benzene supply - demand is generally good, but the rebound space is limited. The styrene supply - demand is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to operate EB09 in the 7100 - 7500 range [37]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply and demand of PP and PE contract synchronously, with inventory accumulation and weak demand. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities for PP and buy PE within a range [41]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices are in a stalemate between bulls and bears. Diesel shortages support prices, but factors such as sanctions, tariffs, and supply increases limit the upward space. The support ranges for WTI, Brent, and SC are [65, 66], [67, 68], and [504, 514] respectively [44]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: For PVC, the prices of various futures contracts and spot markets have small fluctuations. For caustic soda, the prices of some products are stable, and the export price and profit of some products have changed [19][20]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate has increased, while the PVC total operating rate has decreased slightly. The profits of different production methods of PVC have changed [21]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed, and the PVC pre - sales volume has increased slightly [22][23]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC has changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [23]. Urea - **Prices**: The prices of urea futures contracts, spot markets, and related products have changed, and the basis and spread have also changed [27]. - **Supply**: The daily and weekly production of urea has changed slightly, and the number of maintenance losses has increased [27]. - **Demand**: The agricultural demand for urea is weak, and the industrial demand is restricted by high temperatures [27]. - **Inventory**: The factory and port inventories of urea have changed, with the factory inventory decreasing and the port inventory increasing [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: The prices of various products in the polyester industry chain, including crude oil, PX, PTA, and polyester products, have changed, and the spreads and processing fees have also changed [30]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products have changed [30]. - **Demand**: The demand for polyester products is weak, and the downstream industries' operating rates have changed [30]. Methanol - **Prices**: The prices of methanol futures contracts and spot markets have changed, and the basis and spread have also changed [34]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise, port, and social inventories of methanol have changed [34]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream enterprises of methanol have changed [34]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products have changed, and the spreads and import profits have also changed [37]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have changed [37]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries have changed [37]. Polyolefins - **Prices**: The prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts and spot markets have changed, and the basis and spread have also changed [41]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP have changed [41]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PE and PP production and downstream industries have changed [41]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: The prices of crude oil futures contracts and refined oil products have changed, and the spreads and crack spreads have also changed [44]. - **Market Factors**: Diesel shortages support oil prices, but sanctions, tariffs, and supply increases affect the market [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the off - season in mid - August will limit its upside potential. A short - term target price of WTI at $70.4 per barrel is given, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits [2]. - For methanol, the upstream start - up continues to decline, and the overseas supply - side interference is gradually digested. The demand is weak overall. After the price decline, the downstream profit has slightly recovered, but the spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see or use it as a short position within the sector [4]. - Regarding urea, domestic start - up slightly declines, and the enterprise profit is at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizers and exports is expected to increase, so the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [6]. - Rubber (NR and RU) has been rising strongly, and the overall commodity bullish sentiment is strong. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish view is recommended for the medium - term, and for the short - term, a neutral view with quick entry and exit is suggested. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][11]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and the demand is weak. The main logic of the market is the transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. Although it has followed the rebound in the black building materials sector in the short term, it will still face pressure in the future [13]. - In the case of benzene ethylene, the BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side. In the short term, the geopolitical impact has subsided, and the BZN spread may be repaired [16]. - For polyethylene, the EU's sanctions on Russia may affect the price. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate downward in July [18]. - For polypropylene, the profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The demand is seasonally weak. The price is expected to be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA load is also high, and the inventory is low. It is expected to continue to de - stock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices following the trend of crude oil [21][22]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase in July with new installations and few maintenance plans, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The demand is in the off - season and under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [23]. - For ethylene glycol, the overseas and domestic maintenance devices are gradually starting, and the downstream start - up is declining. The inventory reduction in ports is expected to slow down. Although the short - term valuation has upward support, the fundamentals will turn weak in the future [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.32, a 0.47% decline, at $67.3; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.42, a 0.60% decline, at $69.23; INE main crude oil futures closed up 15.20 yuan, a 2.94% increase, at 532 yuan [1]. - **Data**: European ARA weekly data shows that gasoline inventories increased by 0.53 million barrels to 10.05 million barrels, a 5.52% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.64 million barrels to 13.13 million barrels, a 4.66% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.03 million barrels to 6.50 million barrels, a 0.49% increase; naphtha inventories decreased by 0.52 million barrels to 5.42 million barrels, an 8.79% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.43 million barrels to 6.36 million barrels, a 7.31% increase; total refined oil inventories decreased by 0.17 million barrels to 41.46 million barrels, a 0.41% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 18, the 09 contract fell 8 yuan/ton to 2365 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of +20 [4]. - **Analysis**: The upstream start - up continues to decline, and the profit slightly drops. The overseas device start - up returns to a medium - high level. The demand is weak overall, and the downstream profit has slightly recovered after the price decline, but the spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is limited [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 18, the 09 contract rose 2 yuan/ton to 1745 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of +55 [6]. - **Analysis**: Domestic start - up slightly declines, and the enterprise profit is at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizers starts to pick up as they enter the autumn fertilizer production stage, and exports are still ongoing. The price has support at the bottom, but the upside is restricted by high supply [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have been rising continuously and strongly [8]. - **Analysis**: The overall commodity bullish sentiment is strong. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the second half of the year. The long - term bullish view is recommended for the medium - term, and for the short - term, a neutral view with quick entry and exit is suggested. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 18 yuan to 4937 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4840 yuan/ton (unchanged), the basis was - 97 yuan/ton (+18), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 119 yuan/ton (-1) [13]. - **Analysis**: The cost of calcium carbide has increased, and the overall start - up rate of PVC has increased. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream start - up rate has decreased. The factory inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the market is expected to face pressure [13]. Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price of benzene ethylene have both increased, and the basis has weakened [16]. - **Analysis**: The BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The cost of pure benzene has increased in supply, and the supply of benzene ethylene has also increased. The port inventory has significantly increased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side [16]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has increased [18]. - **Analysis**: The EU's sanctions on Russia may affect the price. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate downward in July [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has decreased [19]. - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The demand is seasonally weak. The price is expected to be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 68 yuan to 6810 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 6 dollars to 839 dollars. The basis was 104 yuan (-15), and the 9 - 1 spread was 140 yuan (+6) [21]. - **Analysis**: The maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA load is also high, and the inventory is low. It is expected to continue to de - stock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices following the trend of crude oil [21][22]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 30 yuan to 4744 yuan, the East China spot price rose 50 yuan to 4780 yuan, the basis was 29 yuan (+5), and the 9 - 1 spread was 52 yuan (-14) [23]. - **Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase in July with new installations and few maintenance plans, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The demand is in the off - season and under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 4 yuan to 4376 yuan, the East China spot price fell 4 yuan to 4433 yuan, the basis was 59 yuan (-3), and the 9 - 1 spread was 16 yuan (-1) [24]. - **Analysis**: The overseas and domestic maintenance devices are gradually starting, and the downstream start - up is declining. The inventory reduction in ports is expected to slow down. Although the short - term valuation has upward support, the fundamentals will turn weak in the future [24].

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 19.8 times, at the historical 79th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.4 times, at the historical 59th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 33.9 times, at the historical 18th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 139.8 times, at the historical 99th percentile [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Power Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense, and Aviation [2][6] - The Passenger Vehicle industry has a PB valuation above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - The Shipping and Port industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - The price of polysilicon futures has risen by 8.2% to above 45,000 yuan, indicating a recovery in the market [2] - Battery cell prices increased by 7.7%, while prices for silicon wafers remained stable [2] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 1.0%, while iron ore prices rose by 3.2% [2] - The national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Consumption - The average price of live pigs decreased by 3.6%, while the wholesale price of pork increased by 0.3% [3] - Retail sales grew by 5.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with June's growth down to 4.8% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment grew by 7.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while narrow infrastructure investment grew by 4.6% [3] - The production of industrial robots increased by 35.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Technology TMT - The production of integrated circuits increased by 8.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Cyclicals - The price of Brent crude oil futures fell by 2.0% to $69.23 per barrel [3] - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 23.4%, reaching its highest level since September 2024 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility driven by geopolitical risks in Washington and the Middle East, as well as escalating trade tensions between the US and Europe [1] Geopolitical Risks - The turmoil in the Middle East, particularly the Houthi attacks on Iraqi oil fields, has led to a daily drop in oil production by 140,000 to 150,000 barrels, impacting the global energy market [4] - The issuance of missile safety alerts by the US Embassy in Israel has heightened risk-averse sentiment among investors [4] Federal Reserve Policy Divergence - Internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve are causing market fluctuations, with hawkish member Kugler opposing rate cuts while dovish member Waller advocates for a 25 basis point cut in July [2][5] - Market expectations for a July rate cut have risen from 28% to 30%, while the probability of a September cut remains at 54% [2] Trade Tensions - The escalation of the US-EU trade war, including a 40% tariff on EU steel starting August 1, has begun to impact the precious metals supply chain [6] - A factory owner in Dongguan reported a 50% drop in orders for 18K gold necklaces destined for the US, resulting in significant inventory losses [6] Market Volatility - A rumor regarding former President Trump's consideration to fire Fed Chair Powell caused gold prices to spike by $50 to a three-week high of $3,377 before dropping back down, illustrating the extreme volatility in the gold market [8] - Gold has experienced nine instances of daily fluctuations exceeding $35 since July [8] Precious Metals Price Movements - Platinum prices have surged to a two-month high of $1,408, driven by miner strikes in South Africa and the booming hydrogen vehicle market, while silver prices have declined due to weak global factory orders [8] - Domestic gold prices in Shanghai opened at 771.2 yuan per gram, slightly down from the previous day, while retail prices for gold jewelry are significantly higher due to additional costs [9] Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, purchasing between 37 to 39 tons monthly, with China's central bank being the most aggressive, raising its reserves to 2,298 tons over the past eight months [9] - Some Nordic pension funds have increased their gold allocations to 14%, indicating a shift towards gold as a hedge against currency devaluation [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is to approach it with a mindset of weakening oscillations. Specific varieties have different ratings: crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PTA, and urea are rated as "weakening oscillations"; PX, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, PP, plastic, PVC, and methanol are rated as "oscillations"; pure benzene is rated as "oscillating strongly"; and caustic soda is rated as "oscillating strongly" [3][7][8][11][13][14][17][19][22][24][26][27][28][30][31] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international oil price continues to oscillate and consolidate. The reduction in crude oil production in the Iraqi region provides some support, but the increase in refined oil inventories in the United States and the expected inventory build - up in the future may lead to weakening oscillations in oil prices if geopolitical disturbances subside. For most energy and chemical products, factors such as supply and demand, cost, and market sentiment lead to an overall trend of weakening oscillations or oscillations. For example, asphalt prices are overvalued, high - sulfur fuel oil prices face downward pressure, and the cost - end support for LPG weakens [1][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored. With the expected inventory build - up in the future, if geopolitical disturbances weaken, oil prices will gradually face pressure and are expected to weaken and oscillate [7] - **LPG**: The cost - end support weakens, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly [3][11] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely overvalued stage, and the asphalt price difference is expected to decline as the warehouse receipts increase [8] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices face significant downward pressure, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and the price is expected to weaken and oscillate [8][9][11] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate and weaken, facing factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [11] - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol production areas show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is relatively stable. The futures price oscillates in the short term [24][26] - **Urea**: The hype sentiment slows down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals. In the short term, it may face pressure to operate [24] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly start - up rate declines, and the downstream start - up rate also decreases. It continues to oscillate and consolidate [17][18] - **PX**: There is insufficient driving force, and it oscillates and consolidates [13] - **PTA**: The driving force is not obvious, and it consolidates. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13] - **Short - Fiber**: The basis weakens, and there are no major contradictions in the industrial chain. The processing fee will remain stable, and the absolute value will follow the raw materials to fluctuate [19][21] - **Bottle - Chip**: Production cuts support the processing fee, and the absolute value follows the raw materials to fluctuate [22] - **PP**: The maintenance rate slightly increases, and it oscillates [28] - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate slightly increases, and it oscillates [27] - **Pure Benzene**: The near - end long positions in styrene leave the market, and pure benzene follows to decline. In the medium term, the pattern from July to August is acceptable [14] - **Styrene**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the price drops [16][17] - **PVC**: Market sentiment warms up again, and it mainly oscillates. The fundamental pressure still exists [30] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price reaches the peak, and it oscillates and operates. The 09 futures contract oscillates, facing downward pressure and support [31] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.96 with a change of - 0.01, and the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is 38 with a change of - 10 [33] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 192 with a change of 0, and the warehouse receipt is 82300 [34] - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also corresponding values and changes in the inter - variety spread. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 298 with a change of - 4 [35]