Core Insights - The commodity market in 2025 is characterized as a "structural bull market," with significant annual gains in gold and silver, while oil prices face pressure due to supply-demand dynamics [1] - Goldman Sachs' 2026 Commodity Outlook indicates a trend towards "increasing differentiation" in the commodity market, with overall returns expected to moderate but significant disparities among different commodities [1][2] - Key factors influencing the market include the geopolitical tensions between the US and China, the competition in AI, and dual supply shocks in the energy market [1][2] Commodity Performance - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are expected to continue their strong performance into 2026, with gold prices projected to reach $4,900 per ounce and silver between $50-$60 per ounce [3][6] - Industrial metals like copper are forecasted to maintain a strong price trajectory, with potential average prices between $11,400 and $12,075 per ton, driven by demand from technology and energy transitions [6][8] - The oil market is anticipated to face downward pressure, with Goldman Sachs predicting Brent and WTI crude oil prices to average $56 and $52 respectively in 2026, reflecting a supply surplus [8] Economic and Policy Context - The shift from "monetary easing + fiscal tightening" to "fiscal expansion + accelerated de-globalization" has highlighted the value of physical assets, creating structural opportunities in commodities [2] - The expected continuation of a loose monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in 2026 is seen as a catalyst for increased investment in commodities, as it lowers the opportunity cost of holding these assets [2] Market Dynamics - The energy market is expected to experience significant changes due to supply shocks in both oil and LNG, impacting pricing and availability [1][8] - The agricultural market's performance in 2026 is uncertain, with potential impacts from climate anomalies and trade policy changes affecting supply and demand dynamics [8] Strategic Focus - The 2026 commodity market will require a nuanced approach, moving away from a one-size-fits-all investment strategy to focus on structural opportunities influenced by geopolitical and technological factors [10]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月25日 【原油】 继美国接连扣押油轮后,目前委内瑞拉海域有十余艘满载油轮正等待船东的新指示。俄罗斯黑海塔 口码头遇袭，恶劣天气导致维修进度缓慢，哈萨克斯坦12月CPC混合原油出口将降至14个月最低水 平。美国页岩油行业钻井与压裂活动虽降至数年新低，然而由于产量调整存在时滞，美国原油产量 仍维持在年内高位。她缘冲突多发引发市场对原油供应中断担忧,然基本面宽松主基调未改,地缘 扰动更倾向于提供阶段性反弹动力。 (责金属) 【铜】 隔夜铜价震幅扩大，沪铜加权减仓，海外资金圣诞休市。国内现货背离加大，昨日上海铜贴水扩至 310元，短线国内现货供求给予铜价更大调整压力。但同时需求淡季下，原料紧张可能向国内精铜传 导，且价差利于出口。一季度合约多配需求持续性强，前期多单持有依托位上调到9.4万，同时建议 设置主动止盈位。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝回落。铝市基本面矛盾依然有限，社库窄幅波动，表观需求并无亮眼表现。近期宽松交易 延续，贵金属和有色多品种创新高，沪铝跟涨为主，圣诞节假期来临资金有离场迹象，沪铝在前高 位置仍具备阻力、多头背靠40日线持有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Short - term fundamentals change little. The rubber price rises due to the increasing preference for commodities, but there is a risk of a sharp fall after a rise [1]. Methanol - The port may face inventory accumulation pressure in December, but the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to turn to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. The supply - demand pattern in the inland area is expected to be stable, and the price will fluctuate within a narrow range [4]. Polyolefins - For PP, supply increases while demand decreases, with low marginal device valuation and a slight reduction in inventory. For PE, both supply and demand are weak, with a decrease in the marginal supply of standard products, low valuation, and the futures price rising with reduced positions [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene may maintain a volatile trend in the short term, with the BZ2603 contract likely to fluctuate between 5300 - 5600. Styrene's rebound space is limited, and the EB02 contract may fluctuate between 6300 - 6700 [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash's supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the price is in a downward - fluctuating pattern. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Glass's market still faces pressure, and the 01 contract will follow the delivery logic in December [10]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda's price is expected to be weak in the short term, and its rebound range is limited. PVC is expected to continue to move in a range, and its rebound height is limited [11]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate between 60 - 65 dollars per barrel, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation after the holiday [12]. Urea - Urea prices may fluctuate between 1700 - 1750. It is necessary to pay attention to the enterprise's replenishment demand and the progress of export policies [14]. LPG - No clear overall view is provided in the LPG - related content. Polyester Industry Chain - PX may continue to be strong in the short term, but caution is needed. PTA's upward movement is limited. MEG is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Short - fiber's absolute price has limited drivers. Bottle - chip's processing fees are expected to be compressed [18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose by 250 yuan/ton to 15100 yuan/ton, with a 1.68% increase. The whole - latex basis decreased by 110 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton, a 25.00% decline [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 70 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton, a 107.69% increase. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 65 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, a 185.71% decline [1]. Production and Inventory - Thailand's October production decreased by 48.3 thousand tons to 466.2 thousand tons, a 9.39% decline. The bonded - area inventory increased by 16339 tons to 515227 tons, a 3.28% increase [1]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - The MA2601 closing price rose by 4 yuan/ton to 2134 yuan/ton, a 0.19% increase. The MA15 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to - 38 yuan/ton, a 46.15% increase [4]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 1.28 million tons to 40.397 million tons, a 3.28% increase. Methanol port inventory increased by 19.37 million tons to 141.3 million tons, a 15.89% increase [4]. Operating Rates - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.99 percentage points to 77.63%, a 1.29% increase. The downstream MTO device operating rate increased by 1.51 percentage points to 86%, a 1.79% increase [4]. Polyolefins Prices and Spreads - The L2601 closing price rose by 104 yuan/ton to 6320 yuan/ton, a 1.67% increase. The L15 spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton to - 28 yuan/ton, a 16.00% decline [8]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.92 million tons to 45.9 million tons, a 5.99% decline. PP trade - dealer inventory decreased by 2.01 million tons to 18.7 million tons, a 9.70% decline [8]. Operating Rates - The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.25 percentage points to 83.9%, a 0.30% decline. The PP device operating rate increased by 1.08 percentage points to 79.4%, a 1.37% increase [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 0.14 dollars per barrel to 62.24 dollars per barrel, a 0.2% decline. The pure benzene - to - naphtha spread increased by 4 dollars per ton to 128 dollars per ton, a 3.2% increase [9]. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - Styrene's East - China spot price rose by 90 yuan/ton to 6650 yuan/ton, a 1.4% increase. The EB02 - EB03 spread decreased by 7 yuan/ton to - 64 yuan/ton, a 12.3% increase [9]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory increased by 1.3 million tons to 27.3 million tons, a 5.0% increase. The domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 74.9%, a 0.2% decline [9]. Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - The glass 2601 price rose by 3 yuan/ton to 941 yuan/ton, a 0.32% increase. The soda ash 2605 price rose by 9 yuan/ton to 1184 yuan/ton, a 0.81% increase [10]. Production and Inventory - Soda ash's weekly production decreased by 1.4 million tons to 72.14 million tons, a 1.90% decline. Glass factory inventory increased by 33.1 million tons to 5855.8 million tons, a 0.57% increase [10]. PVC and Caustic Soda Prices and Spreads - The East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 4480 yuan/ton, a 1.4% increase. The SH2601 price rose by 12 yuan/ton to 2150 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase [11]. Supply and Demand - The caustic - soda industry operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 88.5%, a 1.5% decline. The PVC total operating rate decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 16.1%, a 2.9% decline [11]. Inventory - The liquid - caustic East - China factory inventory decreased by 1.4 million tons to 22.7 million tons, a 5.7% decline. The PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 1.6 million tons to 32.9 million tons, a 4.6% decline [11]. Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil rose by 0.31 dollars per barrel to 62.38 dollars per barrel, a 0.50% increase. The Brent M1 - M3 spread increased by 0.12 dollars per barrel to - 3.16 dollars per barrel, a 3.66% decline [12]. Refined Oil - NYM RBOB rose by 10.75 cents per gallon to 627.25 cents per gallon, a 1.74% increase. The RBOB M1 - M3 spread decreased by 0.34 cents per gallon to - 3.15 cents per gallon, a 12.10% increase [12]. Urea Prices and Spreads - The methanol - main - contract price rose by 16 yuan/ton to 2172 yuan/ton, a 0.74% increase. The 01 - contract - to - 05 - contract spread decreased by 6 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, a 9.68% decline [14]. Supply and Demand - The domestic urea daily production decreased to 19.5 million tons, a 0.00% change. The urea production factory operating rate remained at 80.62%, a 0.00% change [14]. Inventory - The domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 11.08 million tons to 106.89 million tons, a 9.39% decline. The domestic urea port inventory remained at 13.8 million tons, a 0.00% change [14]. LPG Prices and Spreads - The main PG2601 contract price rose by 36 yuan/ton to 4221 yuan/ton, a 0.86% increase. The PG01 - 02 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 139 yuan/ton, a 9.74% decline [16]. Inventory and Operating Rates - The LPG port inventory decreased by 22.4 million tons to 261 million tons, a 7.89% decline. The downstream PDH operating rate increased by 2.1 percentage points to 75.0%, a 2.92% increase [16]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Prices - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 0.14 dollars per barrel to 62.24 dollars per barrel, a 0.2% decline. The POY150/48 price remained at 6395 yuan/ton, a 0.0% change [18]. PX - Related - CFR China PX rose by 5 dollars per ton to 901 dollars per ton, a 0.6% increase. The PX - to - naphtha spread increased by 6 dollars per ton to 447 dollars per ton, a 1.4% increase [18]. PTA and MEG - The PTA East - China spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 5015 yuan/ton, a 1.2% increase. The MEG port inventory increased by 3.0 million tons to 71.6 million tons, a 4.4% increase [18].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-25 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险支撑，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- < END > 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 ...

能源化工日报 2025-12-25 原油 2025/12/25 原油 能源化工组 INE 主力原油期货收涨 3.00 元/桶，涨幅 0.68%，报 444.70 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 2.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.08%，报 2480.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 14.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.47%，报 3014.00 元/吨。 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存去库 0.70 百万桶至 6.27 百万桶，环比去库 10.08%； 柴油库存去库 0.38 百万桶至 2.29 百万桶，环比去库 14.25%；燃料油库存去库 1.02 百万桶至 10.38 百万桶，环比去库 8.95%；总成品油去库 2.10 百万桶至 18.94 百万桶，环比去库 10.00%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维持对油价低多高抛的区间策略， 但当前油价仍需测试 OPEC 的出口挺价意愿，建议短期观望为主，等待油价下跌时 OPEC 出口下 滑做出验证。 甲醇 2025/12/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic environment, highlighting the Chinese central bank's continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the recent adjustments in the Beijing housing market to support home purchases by non-local families and families with multiple children [1][8]. Group 1: Financial Markets - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the agriculture sector lagged behind. The market turnover reached 1.90 trillion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 14.859 billion yuan to 25,145.96 billion yuan [2][12]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy backing, capital influx, and industrial empowerment, with the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut likely to enhance global capital flow and risk appetite [2][12]. Group 2: Oil Market - Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reached 7.1 million barrels in October, the highest level in two and a half years, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [3][15]. - The overall trend in the oil market remains downward, influenced by geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Russia's energy sector [3][15]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Palm oil prices are expected to improve due to better export data from Malaysia, while soybean oil faces downward pressure from high production expectations [4][30]. - The domestic soybean market is experiencing a supply surplus, with auction prices declining, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean meal prices [29][30]. Group 4: Metals - Gold and silver prices are stabilizing, supported by lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which may provide room for further interest rate cuts [20]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to tight supply conditions and fluctuating demand from various sectors, including automotive and construction [21]. Group 5: Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown a slight decline, with expectations for price stabilization as shipping companies adjust their pricing strategies ahead of the upcoming Chinese New Year [33].

来源：上海有色网 金属市场： 截至日间收盘，内盘基本金属集体飘红，沪镍以高达4.68%的涨幅领涨，盘中最高冲至130880元/吨，刷 新2025年4月以来的新高；沪铜涨2.33%，盘中最高冲至96750元/吨，续刷其上市以来的历史新高。沪铅 涨1.53%，其余金属涨幅均在1%以内。氧化铝主连涨1.35%，铸造铝主连涨1.23%。 此外，碳酸锂主连涨5.89%，其盘中最高冲至127880元/吨，刷新2023年11月以来的新高。工业硅涨 1.43%，多晶硅跌1.3%。欧线集运跌1.63%报1795.8。 黑色系方面集体上涨，不锈钢涨1.4%，铁矿涨0.26%，双焦方面，焦煤涨0.62%，焦炭涨0.2%。其余金 属涨幅波动均不大。 外盘方面，截至15:04分，外盘基本金属集体上涨，伦锡涨1.23%，伦铜涨1.3%，伦铜盘中最高冲至 12282美元/吨，续刷其上市历来的历史新高。伦锌涨1.05%，其余金属涨幅均在1%以内。 贵金属方面，截至15:04分，COMEX黄金涨0.37%，盘中续刷其历史高位4555.4美元/盎司，COMEX白 银涨1.83%，其盘中最高冲至72.75美元/盎司，续刷其上市以来的历史新高。国内 ...

黄金方面： 12月23日，美国公布了第三季度GDP数据，公布值为4.3%，较前值3.8%有显著增长。然而市场认为，若剔除季度数据的异常波 动，实际GDP增长率更接近2%。这一数据表现尚可但算不上出色，加之美国失业率持续攀升，经济增长并未创造更多的就业岗 位。 针对远超预期的GDP数据，华尔街认为，未来经济可能会出现过热的情况，市场关注的焦点从经济衰退的风险，开始转移至经 济过热、通胀回升的风险。 百利好特约智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，GDP数据公布后，黄金市场短线下行，并没有改变黄金的上升趋势；受到多方因素 影响，黄金恐将进入高位震荡。 当下原油市场的主线逻辑逐渐清晰，2026年第一季度，OPEC+没有继续增产的计划，在地缘风险的支撑下，加之美国经济逐步 向好，可能会促进油价上涨。 技术面：昨日收小阳线。1小时级别，MACD显示多方仍占据市场优势，价格在60/120日均线上方运行，市场短期上升趋势延 续。今日下方关注57.70美元的支撑，上方关注59.20美元的压力。 美元指数： 美国第三季度实际GDP数据惊艳录得4.3%，远远超出市场预期。同时，个人消费支出数据，也明显强于市场预期。受此影响， 美联储1月降 ...

光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） 光大期货能化商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.37 美元至 | | | | 58.38 美元/桶，涨幅 0.64%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.31 美元 | | | | 至 62.38 美元/桶，涨幅 0.50%。SC2602 以 442.3 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 0.6 元/桶，涨幅为 0.14%。受圣诞假期影响，贝克休斯本周提前三 | | | | 天发布钻机数量报告。数据显示，截至 12 月 23 日当周，作为未 | | | | 来产量先行指标的油气钻机总数增加 3 座，至 545 座，但仍较上 | | | | 年同期减少 44 座，降幅为 7.5%。贝克休斯表示，本周美国石油钻 | | | 原油 | 机数增加 3 座，至 409 座；天然气钻井数持平于 127 座。美国商 | 震荡 | | | 务部经济分析局公布的首次预估数据显示，今年第三季度美国 | | | | GDP 环比按年率计算增长 4.3 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月24日 (原油) 围绕委内瑞拉的地缘紧张局势,引发脉冲式的"风险溢价"交易,推动油价反弹。然而,鉴于其他地 区充足的闲置产能以及委内瑞拉出口已因多年制裁而大打折扣,若单一因委内瑞拉原油供应中断引 发的全球实质性供应收紧预计有限。乌克兰对俄罗斯船只的袭击更添供应犹动风险。美国页岩油行 业钻井与压裂活动虽降至数年新低,然而由于产量调整存在时滞,美国原油产量仍维持在年内高 位。地缘政治引发的溢价更倾向于提供阶段性反弹动力。 【贵金属】 隔夜美国公布第三季度GDP录得4.3%超预期为两年来最快增速，数据发布后金银一度有所回落，但 此后收复跌幅。 近期美委、伊以等地缘风险扰动,黄金刷新历史新高后形成突破行情带动贵金属整 体趋势得到强化，圣诞节临近休市外盘成交将降温，关注资金动向。 【铜】 隔夜铜价再创新高，美国三季度GDP增速受益强劲消费者支出表现超预期。基本面，市场在矿端供应 最紧的明年一季度，持续提前兑现目标位。短线关注国内现铜转折背离幅度，昨日上海铜贴水215 元，广东贴水125元，预计贴水300元将给予更大调整压力。但同时，需求 ...