Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap due to Iran's supply disruption. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, a mid - term layout is recommended. Specific strategies include a short - term bearish strategy for crude oil, widening the price difference of different oil types in the Red Sea area, shorting the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and shorting the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, it has fully priced in the current geopolitical premium, and with no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to take profits at high prices [4]. - For urea, there is a strong expectation of high production in the first quarter. Although there is a positive expectation for domestic downstream demand, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to short at high prices. When the substitution valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term marginal positive support for demand [7]. - For rubber, it is recommended to respond flexibly, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is recommended to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 contract [12]. - For PVC, the short - term fundamentals are weak, but the narrative logic is turning to expectations. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, it is expected to rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, with the easing of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have fallen. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and it is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [19]. - For polyethylene, with the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the spot price has risen. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. In the short term, the geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [25]. - For PX, the load is expected to decline significantly in March, and it is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The supply - demand structure is strong, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [28]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and the PXN is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the foreign device maintenance volume has increased significantly, and it is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle. The oil - chemical profit has fallen to a historical low, and there is an expectation of significant import shrinkage, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [32]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 70.40 yuan/barrel, a decline of 9.61%, at 662.00 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed down 221.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.87%, at 4318.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 68.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.33%, at 5050.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a mid - term layout strategy, including a short - term bearish strategy for crude oil, widening the price difference of different oil types in the Red Sea area, shorting the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and shorting the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 80 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 65 yuan/ton, in Henan by 0 yuan/ton, in Hebei by - 110 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 25 yuan/ton. The main contract of methanol futures changed by 59.00 yuan/ton, at 2658 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 50 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Since methanol has fully priced in the geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to take profits at high prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices in Shandong and Hubei changed by 10 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 0 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 12 yuan/ton. The main contract of urea futures changed by 16 yuan/ton, at 1872 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a strong expectation of high production in the first quarter. Although there is a positive expectation for domestic downstream demand, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to short at high prices. When the substitution valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term marginal positive support for demand [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The macro - situation led to a sharp drop in crude oil, which in turn drove down the price of butadiene and butadiene rubber (BR). The market changes rapidly. The long and short sides have different views. The long side of natural rubber (RU) is optimistic due to factors such as limited rubber production in Southeast Asia, seasonal expectations, and improved demand in China. The short side is pessimistic due to uncertain macro - expectations, increased supply, and seasonal off - peak demand. As of March 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 66.41%, 34.11 percentage points higher than last week and 2.35 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.52%, 35.17 percentage points higher than last week and 8.89 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of March 1, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 138.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 million tons, an increase of 1.21%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 93.8 million tons, an increase of 1.32%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 44.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.36 million tons to 69.01 million tons [9][10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to respond flexibly, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is recommended to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 contract [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 342 yuan, at 5571 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5270 (+120) yuan/ton, the basis was - 301 (-222) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 29 (+60) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2500 (+50) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 970 (+20) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 655 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the ethylene method was 82.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 35.8%, a month - on - month increase of 18.7%. The in - plant inventory was 45.8 million tons (-4.6), and the social inventory was 140.4 million tons (+5.1) [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term fundamentals are weak, but the narrative logic is turning to expectations. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, it is expected to rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side price of East China pure benzene was 7755 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 8047 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 292 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2000 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 9820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton; the basis was 180 yuan/ton, a weakening of 1905 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 196.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was 327.55 yuan/ton, an increase of 208.8 yuan/ton. The spread between the first and second consecutive contracts of EB was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.11%, a decrease of 0.13%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 17.56 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 40.79%, an increase of 10.34%. The PS operating rate was 51.50%, an increase of 2.10%; the EPS operating rate was 58.76%, an increase of 46.59%; the ABS operating rate was 69.50%, a decrease of 1.20% [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the easing of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have fallen. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and it is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 8154 yuan/ton, an increase of 387 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7825 yuan/ton, an increase of 175 yuan/ton. The basis was - 329 yuan/ton, a weakening of 212 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76%. The production enterprise inventory was 52 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.62 million tons, and the trader inventory was 5.57 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 30%, a month - on - month increase of 1.38%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 348 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the spot price has risen. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 8197 yuan/ton, an increase of 377 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8100 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The basis was - 97 yuan/ton, a weakening of 177 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69%. The production enterprise inventory was 68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49 million tons, the trader inventory was 20.61 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.655 million tons, and the port inventory was 7.47 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45.87%, a month - on - month increase of 9.13%. The LL - PP spread was - 43 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 551 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 56 yuan/ton [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has risen. In the short term, the geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 630 yuan, at 9532 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 66 US dollars, at 1217 US dollars. The basis was 135 yuan (-114), and the 5 - 7 spread was 412 yuan (+88). The domestic PX load was 90.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2%; the Asian load was 83.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%. A 2.5 - million - ton PX plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical was under maintenance, and the Daxie plant was shut down. Overseas, a 770,000 - ton PX plant of South Korea's S - oil was under maintenance, and a 550,000 - ton plant of GS was operating at a reduced load. The PTA load was 81%, a month - on - month increase of 4.4%. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 157,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of March, a year - on - year decrease of 18,000 tons. The inventory at the end of January was 4.64 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons. The PXN was 310 US dollars (-45), the South Korean PX - MX was 112 US dollars (+18), and the naphtha cracking spread was 172 US dollars (-162) [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX load is expected to decline significantly in March, and it is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The supply - demand structure is strong, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 460 yuan, at 6660 yuan. The East China spot price rose 140 yuan, at 6320 yuan. The basis was - 14 yuan (+1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 366 yuan (+66). The PTA load was 81%, a month - on - month increase of 4.4%. The downstream load was 83.5%, a month - on - month increase of 4%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on March 6 was 2.623 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26,000 tons. The PTA spot processing fee fell 198 yuan, to - 22 yuan, and the on - market processing fee rose 47 yuan, to 407 yuan [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and the PXN is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 272 yuan, at 4577 yuan. The East China spot price fell 8 yuan, at 4400 yuan. The basis was - 23 yuan (-25), and the 5 - 9 spread was 143 yuan (+137). The ethylene glycol load was 73.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.7%; among them, the syngas - based load was 83%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the ethylene - based load was 67.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.3%. Many domestic and overseas plants were under maintenance or operating at a reduced load. The downstream load was 83.5%, a month - on - month increase of 4%. The import arrival forecast was 78,000 tons, and the East China departure volume on March 10 was 11,000 tons. The port inventory was 1.068 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 66,000 tons. The naphtha - based profit was - 1940 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 1212 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 661 yuan. The

Export Data - In January-February 2026, China's exports increased by 21.8% year-on-year, significantly up from 6.6% in December 2025, and exceeding market expectations of 7.2%[1] - The trade surplus reached $213.618 billion, compared to $114.107 billion in December 2025[1] Import Data - Imports also saw a year-on-year growth of 19.8% in January-February 2026, up from 5.7% in December 2025, surpassing market expectations of 7.0%[1] - The increase in imports is attributed to the recovery in the manufacturing sector and rising demand for upstream resources and technology products[3] Seasonal Trends - The timing of the Spring Festival contributed to a significant increase in export growth rates, with a notable rise in exports to developed countries and emerging markets[2] - Exports to Africa surged by 49.8% year-on-year, while exports to ASEAN and Latin American countries also reached recent highs[2] Future Outlook - Export growth is expected to experience a seasonal decline in March 2026 due to rising oil prices and higher base effects, although the medium-term outlook remains positive[4] - Short-term import growth may be influenced by price factors, with domestic demand recovery being a key focus[4] Risks - Geopolitical risks and unexpected economic or policy changes could disrupt market conditions and affect trade dynamics[4]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年03月11日 (原油) 夜盘油价波动剧烈。3月9日，美国总统特朗普表示将迅速结束相关军事行动,然而昨日又宣称事态 将升级，令市场情绪再度紧绷。当前中东地区军事冲突持续，霍尔木兹海峡通航严重受限，仅有极 少数船只得以通行，整体通航量持续处于极低水平。沙特与阿联酋已启用替代管道，预计后续原油 发运量将有所回升。航运受阻已导致实质性的供应中断:伊拉克减产近150万桶/日，鲁迈拉等主力 油田减产幅度尤为明显；科威特则削减30万桶/日的供应。沙特与阿联酋的现有原油储存空间仅能支 撑数日。如果海峡通行持续受阻,预计将有更多产油国跟进减产。接下来需密切关注霍尔木兹海峡 的通航情况变化，以及中东主要产油国的实际发货量。在海峡恢复通行之前，预计油价仍将维持高 位运行,短期内多空消息交织,市场波动料将加剧。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属偏强运行。媒体报道称特朗普表示可能愿意与伊朗进行对话，伊朗外长称新任最高领袖 不会与美谈判。全球经济前景以及降息路径存在不确定性，贵金属呈现历史高位震荡格局，原油剧 烈波动后通胀预期走强，关注今晚美国CPI数据。 【铜】 隔夜 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation, widen the price difference between different oil grades in the Red Sea region before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profits when the price is high [5]. - For urea, due to the expected increase in production in the first quarter and limited positive impact on quotas, short it when the price is high as the fundamental outlook is bearish [8]. - For rubber, treat BR as strong in the short term. If BR turns weak, consider shorting RU. Hedge by buying NR and shorting RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the narrative is turning to expectations. It may rebound before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of the excessive rise [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, with the easing of the Middle East conflict, the valuation repair space for styrene is shrinking. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [20]. - For polyethylene, with the cooling of the Middle East conflict, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the price is high [23]. - For polypropylene, the short - term market is dominated by the geopolitical conflict, and the long - term contradiction is shifting from cost to production mismatch [26]. - For PX, although the current load is high, it is expected to decline significantly in March, and the medium - term supply - demand structure is strong. However, beware of the short - term excessive rise [29]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter the inventory - reduction cycle. The PXN still has room for upward valuation in the context of the Middle East situation, but be cautious of the short - term excessive rise [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline. However, be cautious of the short - term excessive rise [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 80.30 yuan/barrel, a 10.76% decline, at 666.30 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 51.00 yuan/ton, a 1.15% decline, to 4386.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil fell 91.00 yuan/ton, an 1.82% decline, to 4908.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategic Views**: Start a bearish strategic allocation, widen the price difference between different oil grades in the Red Sea region before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: In the spot market, prices in Jiangsu changed by - 285 yuan/ton, Shandong (Lunan) by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 130 yuan/ton, Hebei by 195 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 120 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 209.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2549 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 629 yuan [4]. - **Strategic Views**: Since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profits when the price is high [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: In the spot market, prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei changed by 20 yuan/ton, Hebei and Shanxi by 0 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at 4 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 49 yuan/ton, closing at 1856 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategic Views**: Due to the expected increase in production in the first quarter and limited positive impact on quotas, short it when the price is high as the fundamental outlook is bearish [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The macro - situation led to a rise in crude oil, driving up the price of butadiene and butadiene rubber (BR). The price of BR rose much more than that of natural rubber, which had a positive impact on the prices of RU and NR. The overall market changed rapidly, and there were different views on the market trend. As of March 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 66.41%, up 34.11 percentage points from the previous week and down 2.35 percentage points year - on - year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 73.52%, up 35.17 percentage points from the previous week and down 8.89 percentage points year - on - year. As of February 23, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.6 million tons, a 5.4% increase from the previous month. As of February 24, 2026, the inventory in Qingdao increased by 6.28 million tons to 67.21 million tons [11][12]. - **Strategic Views**: Treat BR as strong in the short term. If BR turns weak, consider shorting RU. Hedge by buying NR and shorting RU2609. Trade in the short - term according to the market and set stop - losses [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 237 yuan, closing at 5229 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4980 (- 780) yuan/ton, the basis was - 249 (- 483) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 89 (+ 22) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2450 (+ 125) yuan/ton, and the price of semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.1%, a 1% decrease from the previous period. The downstream operating rate was 35.8%, a 18.7% increase from the previous period. The factory inventory was 45.8 million tons (- 4.6), and the social inventory was 140.4 million tons (+ 5.1) [15]. - **Strategic Views**: Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the narrative is turning to expectations. It may rebound before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of the excessive rise [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China was 7685 yuan/ton, a 1740 - yuan/ton decline. The closing price of the active contract was 8007 yuan/ton, a 1740 - yuan/ton decline. The basis of pure benzene was - 322 yuan/ton, a 1592 - yuan/ton reduction. The spot price of styrene was 12000 yuan/ton, a 3000 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active contract was 9915 yuan/ton, a 328 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 2085 yuan/ton, a 2672 - yuan/ton strengthening. The BZN spread was 186 yuan/ton, a 5.62 - yuan/ton decline. The profit of non - integrated EB units was 750.85 yuan/ton, a 535.6 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 74.11%, a 0.13% decrease. The inventory in Jiangsu ports was 17.56 million tons, a 1.75 - million - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79%, a 10.34% increase [19]. - **Strategic Views**: With the easing of the Middle East conflict, the valuation repair space for styrene is shrinking. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 7767 yuan/ton, a 177 - yuan/ton decline. The spot price was 7650 yuan/ton, a 1750 - yuan/ton decline. The basis was - 117 yuan/ton, a 1573 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 86.73%, a 0.54% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 53.62 million tons, a 4.35 - million - ton decrease, and the trader inventory was 5.77 million tons, a 1.08 - million - ton increase. The downstream average operating rate was 20%, a 1.78% increase. The LL5 - 9 spread was 323 yuan/ton, a 135 - yuan/ton expansion [22]. - **Strategic Views**: With the cooling of the Middle East conflict, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the price is high [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 7820 yuan/ton, a 214 - yuan/ton decline. The spot price was 7900 yuan/ton, a 1450 - yuan/ton decline. The basis was 80 yuan/ton, a 1236 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 73.61%, a 0.54% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 65.51 million tons, an 8.48 - million - ton decrease, the trader inventory was 21.26 million tons, a 3.71 - million - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 8.14 million tons, a 0.72 - million - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 36.74%, an 8.49% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 53 yuan/ton, a 37 - yuan/ton expansion. The PP5 - 9 spread was 495 yuan/ton, a 146 - yuan/ton expansion [25]. - **Strategic Views**: The short - term market is dominated by the geopolitical conflict, and the long - term contradiction is shifting from cost to production mismatch [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 126 yuan, closing at 8902 yuan. The PX CFR fell 195 US dollars, to 1151 US dollars. The basis was 249 yuan (- 1452), and the 5 - 7 spread was 324 yuan (+ 20). The operating load in China was 90.4%, a 2% decrease, and the Asian load was 83.2%, a 1.7% decrease. Some domestic and overseas units were under maintenance or reduced production. The PTA load was 81%, a 4.4% increase. In February, South Korea's PX exports to China were 41.5 million tons, a 0.7 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of January was 464 million tons, a 1 - million - ton decrease from the previous month. The PXN was 303 US dollars (+ 20), the South Korean PX - MX was 129 US dollars (- 11), and the naphtha cracking spread was 92 US dollars (- 54) [28]. - **Strategic Views**: Although the current load is high, it is expected to decline significantly in March, and the medium - term supply - demand structure is strong. However, beware of the short - term excessive rise [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 116 yuan, closing at 6200 yuan. The East China spot price fell 1020 yuan, to 6180 yuan. The basis was - 15 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was 300 yuan (+ 54). The PTA load was 81%, a 4.4% increase. Some units were under maintenance or resumed production. The downstream load was 83.5%, a 4% increase. The terminal operating rates of texturing and weaving increased. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 27 was 259.7 million tons, a 9.5 - million - ton increase. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 15 yuan, to 176 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 34 yuan, to 360 yuan [31]. - **Strategic Views**: It is difficult to enter the inventory - reduction cycle. The PXN still has room for upward valuation in the context of the Middle East situation, but be cautious of the short - term excessive rise [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 292 yuan, closing at 4305 yuan. The East China spot price fell 405 yuan, to 4408 yuan. The basis was 2 yuan (- 35), and the 5 - 9 spread was 6 yuan (- 100). The supply - side load was 73.3%, a 5.7% decrease, with some domestic and overseas units under maintenance or reduced production. The downstream load was 83.5%, a 4% increase. The terminal operating rates of texturing and weaving increased. The import arrival forecast was 7.8 million tons, and the East China departure was 1 million tons on March 9. The port inventory was 106.8 million tons, a 6.6 - million - ton increase. The naphtha - based production profit was - 1673 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 724 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 661 yuan. The cost of ethylene rose to 950 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 580 yuan [33]. - **Strategic Views**: The load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline. However, be cautious of the short - term excessive rise [34].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Crude oil and its downstream products are closely related to the production, processing, transportation, and consumption of most agricultural products. Fluctuations in crude oil prices can impact the cost and supply - demand balance of agricultural products, thereby affecting their prices. The prices of crude oil and most agricultural product futures are strongly correlated. [3][8] - If crude oil prices remain strong in the near future, products such as oils, sugar, and cotton are likely to continue to perform strongly. If the positive factors from the macro - environment and crude oil fade later, products like soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and corn may face greater downward pressure. [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Overview of the Correlation between Crude Oil and Agricultural Product Futures - Crude oil has a strong correlation with the prices of agricultural products that can provide bioenergy, such as oils, soybeans, soybean and rapeseed meal, corn, cotton, and wheat. Due to differences in domestic and international market environments, the correlation between crude oil and Zhengzhou sugar is lower than that of raw sugar. Crude oil has a certain correlation with the prices of eggs and peanuts, and little correlation with apples and pigs. [8] - Based on the correlation coefficient between WTI crude oil prices and the closing prices of domestic and international agricultural product futures, crude oil has the strongest correlation with domestic three major oils, soybeans (No. 2), soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and overseas products like US soybeans, US soybean oil, US corn, US cotton, US wheat, and Malaysian palm oil, with correlation coefficients generally reaching 0.7. It has a relatively strong correlation with domestic soybeans (No. 1), corn, corn starch, cotton, and overseas US soybean meal and No. 11 sugar, with correlation coefficients between 0.5 and 0.7. The correlation coefficients between crude oil and the prices of eggs and peanuts are 0.44 and 0.35 respectively, and those with apples and pigs are 0.1 and 0.08 respectively. [9] 2. Correlation between Crude Oil and the Oil and Oilseed Market - In the agricultural product futures market, the oil and oilseed sector has the strongest correlation with crude oil prices. The transmission medium is biodiesel. When crude oil prices rise or are high, the production and sales of biodiesel are expected to increase, leading to increased demand for vegetable oils and tighter supply - demand balance, thus enhancing the upward momentum of oil prices. When crude oil prices fall or are low, the opposite occurs. The BOHO and POGO indicators are used to judge the price advantage of biodiesel. The production and sales of biodiesel are also greatly affected by government policies. [11] - In 2024, the total biodiesel production of major producing and consuming countries was about 48.3 billion liters, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. Biodiesel consumption of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil accounted for 18.9%, 19.78%, and 25% of their respective global production, and the total consumption of the three vegetable oils by biodiesel accounted for 20% of their total production. [14] - Soybeans and soybean meal, as raw materials and related products of soybean oil, also have a strong correlation with crude oil prices. If the positive factors from the macro - environment and crude oil fade, the price of domestic soybean meal may face a greater decline. Oils are likely to follow crude oil and perform strongly before the trend of crude oil prices reverses. [15] 3. Correlation between Crude Oil and the Cotton Market - Crude oil affects the cotton market through substitution effects, production cost transmission, and macro - sentiment. The medium is chemical fiber. The correlation coefficients between crude oil prices and PTA, MEG, and PF prices are 0.64, 0.38, and 0.81 respectively. Chemical fiber and cotton are strong substitutes. When crude oil prices are low, the cost of chemical fiber is low, and its substitution for cotton increases, putting downward pressure on cotton prices. The opposite is true when crude oil prices are high. [22] - Since 2026, Zhengzhou cotton has been oscillating strongly, driven by the expected tightening of global cotton supply - demand, the expected decline in the planting area of Xinjiang cotton, the arrival of the traditional peak season, and the rise in crude oil prices. If crude oil prices remain strong, it will continue to benefit cotton prices. If the positive factors fade, Zhengzhou cotton may be more resilient. [24] 4. Correlation between Crude Oil and the Sugar Market - The medium connecting crude oil and the sugar market is sugar - based ethanol. When crude oil prices are low, the production and sales of fuel ethanol are expected to decrease, and sugar production will increase, leading to a looser sugar supply and downward pressure on sugar prices. When crude oil prices are high, the opposite occurs. The correlation coefficient between WTI crude oil and No. 11 sugar prices is 0.52, indicating a strong correlation. [30] - Due to the mainly edible use of domestic sugar and the relatively low proportion of imported sugar, the correlation between Zhengzhou sugar and crude oil prices is low, with a correlation coefficient of 0.25. If crude oil prices remain strong, it will benefit sugar prices. If the positive factors fade, the impact on Zhengzhou sugar may be limited. [33][35] 5. Correlation between Crude Oil and the Corn Market - Crude oil price changes have a great impact on the supply - demand balance of the corn market. When crude oil prices fall, the production and sales of fuel ethanol are expected to decrease, reducing corn demand and putting downward pressure on corn prices. The opposite is true when crude oil prices rise. The correlation coefficient between WTI crude oil and CBOT corn prices is 0.75, and that between WTI crude oil and domestic corn prices is 0.65. The correlation coefficient between domestic and US corn prices is 0.84. [37][39] - If the positive factors from the macro - environment and crude oil fade, the price of corn may face downward pressure due to factors such as phased grain sales pressure, policy - based grain supply, and wheat substitution pressure. [39] 6. Correlation between Crude Oil and Other Agricultural Product Markets - Crude oil has a certain positive correlation with the prices of eggs and peanuts, with correlation coefficients of 0.44 and 0.35 respectively. The correlation with eggs is mainly due to transportation costs and macro - sentiment. The correlation with peanuts is due to the impact of crude oil on oils and transportation costs. [43][46] - Apples and pigs are self - produced and self - sold products, with little correlation with crude oil prices, and their correlation coefficients are 0.11 and 0.08 respectively. [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, significantly impacts the prices of various commodities. Oil - related products are particularly sensitive to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, with supply disruptions leading to price fluctuations. - Different industries face different supply - demand dynamics. For example, some industries have supply shortages due to geopolitical factors, while others are affected by domestic policies and seasonal demand. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Oil Products 3.1.1 Crude Oil - Logic: Oil prices dropped significantly during the day as the US - Iran situation showed signs of cooling. - Fundamentals: The Strait of Hormuz is not navigable. Kuwait has stopped oil production, and Iraq has cut production by 70%. Refineries have reduced their operating loads, causing a shortage of refined oil products. The G7 and the IEA are discussing the release of oil reserves, and Saudi Aramco is providing spot oil supplies, which has eased market pressure [3]. - Macro: Geopolitical tensions have led to soaring oil prices, impacting inflation and economic growth. Middle - Eastern countries face increased fiscal pressure, and the market has a short - term risk - aversion tendency [3]. - Geopolitical: The US - Iran conflict is the focus. Trump said the war would end soon, and the oil price showed a downward trend with the cooling of geopolitical tensions. Geopolitical premiums are expected to remain high in the short term [3]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - Logic: High - sulfur fuel oil continues to be strong due to supply disruptions in the Middle East, while low - sulfur fuel oil has limited fundamental support [5][6]. - Fundamentals: High - sulfur fuel oil: On March 9, FU hit the daily limit again due to supply cuts in the Middle East. The G7 is discussing the release of strategic oil reserves. The war - risk insurance rate in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz has increased. The high - sulfur internal - external price difference has decreased but is still high. Russian supply disruptions also support high - sulfur fuel oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil: It has risen with crude oil, but the fundamentals are weak. There are new supplies from some refineries, and the demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is weak [5][6]. 3.1.3 LPG - Logic: Be wary of the risk of price decline after continuous increases. - Fundamentals: Geopolitical tensions persist, the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and the supply of LPG from the Middle East is expected to shrink. Crude oil prices have soared, strengthening cost support. LPG prices at home and abroad have risen significantly. However, there is a risk of a price correction after continuous increases [7]. 3.2 Aromatics - Polyester 3.2.1 PTA - Logic: Pay attention to the latest developments in the geopolitical conflict. - Fundamentals: The TA2605 contract rose 7.53% overnight and significantly reduced its positions. The spot market has a weak trading atmosphere, and the spot basis is strong. PTA production capacity utilization is 81% (+4.4 pct). An PX device in East China has stopped unexpectedly. The demand side shows that the production capacity utilization of polyester, texturing, weaving, and dyeing has increased. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang over the weekend were good, but weak on the day of the report [9]. 3.3 Coal Chemical Industry 3.3.1 Urea - Logic: Supply and policies limit the emotional premium. - Fundamentals: The guidance price restricts the price increase. Factories stabilize prices to fulfill orders, and downstream demand is cautious. The domestic urea market has a situation of both supply and demand being strong. Spring plowing demand is ongoing, and industrial demand is recovering, providing some support to the price. However, the high daily production and the stable guidance price limit the price increase space [11]. 3.3.2 Methanol - Logic: Be wary of the risk of a high - level correction after the overnight plunge in oil prices. - Fundamentals: The energy - chemical sector rose collectively on Monday, but the night session opened high and went low. The near - month contracts did not continue to hit the daily limit due to high port inventories and exchange risk - control measures. The market is worried about the supply disruption of Middle - Eastern goods in the long - term, increasing the activity of far - month contracts. There is a risk of negative feedback from downstream and a disconnection between futures and spot prices [12][13]. 3.4 Salt Chemical Industry 3.4.1 Soda Ash - Logic: High - level fluctuations intensify. - Fundamentals: The short - term spot sentiment follows the futures market. The cost of coal has not increased, and the supply remains high, but the daily output has decreased slightly. The demand is mainly speculative. In the long - term, the high - inventory situation needs to be improved through factory production cuts or increased exports, but the upward driving force is not clear [14]. 3.4.2 Glass - Logic: High - level fluctuations intensify. - Fundamentals: The spot sentiment has improved, following the futures market. Two production lines were shut down, reducing the supply. The short - term speculative demand has been released, but the actual rigid demand is still weak. The supply is expected to continue to decline, and the market will fluctuate between weak demand and low supply. The real improvement in the supply - demand situation may come after the real - estate market recovers in the second quarter [15][17]. 3.4.3 Caustic Soda - Logic: High - level fluctuations intensify. - Fundamentals: The shortage of ethylene affects foreign production capacity. Although the domestic caustic soda market has a contradiction between high production and high inventory, the expected improvement in exports supports the price increase. The key to the price increase lies in the navigation time of the Strait of Hormuz. If the export demand, new alumina production demand, and spring inspection demand of caustic soda factories resonate, the price may rise further [18]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - Logic: The conflict may end, and copper prices are oscillating strongly. - Fundamentals: Inventories in Shanghai and London have increased, and the short - term macro - risk aversion has declined, with the US dollar falling, supporting copper prices. Although downstream demand has improved, it is suppressed by the strong US dollar. After the Lantern Festival, the resumption of work has accelerated, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. Trump's hint that the war is about to end has led to an increase in copper prices [19]. 3.5.2 Gold - Logic: The employment market has declined, and gold prices are oscillating strongly. - Fundamentals: The Middle - East situation may lead to long - term inflation through the energy channel, which may cause central banks to tighten monetary policies, reducing the anti - inflation appeal of gold. Trump's statement that the war is about to end has led to a weakening of the US dollar, supporting the rise of gold prices [20][21]. 3.5.3 Silver - Logic: The price has broken through the resistance and risen. - Fundamentals: The US non - farm unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, and the weak data has made the market expect the Fed to accelerate interest rate cuts. However, the strong US dollar and the escalation of the Middle - East conflict have suppressed silver prices. Trump's statement that the war may end soon has led to a decline in the US dollar's safe - haven function, and silver prices have broken through [22].

Core Viewpoint - The impact of war on financial and commodity markets is fundamentally characterized by extreme pricing that deviates from conventional financial frameworks, where political logic dominates economic logic and monetary credit logic takes precedence over monetary policy logic [3][7]. Group 1: Initial Phase of War - The core transmission path during the early phase of war involves inflation and liquidity squeeze, driven by geopolitical crises leading to soaring oil prices and rising military spending expectations, which subsequently create systemic liquidity pressures in capital markets [4][12]. - The geopolitical crisis leads to a significant rise in global inflation expectations, which, combined with increased military spending, raises global bond yields and results in liquidity tightening across markets [12][14]. Group 2: Mid-War Phase and Currency Credit - As uncertainty escalates during the mid-war phase, the original monetary credit framework may fail, shifting market pricing anchors towards physical assets, with safe-haven and energy substitution logic providing underlying support for strategic commodities [5][18]. - The market's pricing behavior during war follows an extreme order of survival, safety, credit, and profit, indicating that conventional financial frameworks may experience a degree of failure, with geopolitical factors dictating resource allocation and monetary credit influencing asset distribution [8][19]. Group 3: Historical Context and Asset Changes - The Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) serves as a reference for changes in commodity assets, illustrating how geopolitical conflicts can disrupt global energy supply chains and impact asset pricing [38][37]. - Historical examples, such as the Gulf War and the Iran-Iraq War, demonstrate that extreme geopolitical events can lead to significant price surges in oil and gold, often detached from underlying supply-demand fundamentals [7][41]. Group 4: Energy Transition and Strategic Resources - The logic of energy substitution is not merely a transition from old to new energy sources; rather, it is driven by supply shortages caused by war and energy crises, prompting the adoption of emergency alternative technologies [35][36]. - Countries are increasingly focusing on resource protection and stockpiling strategies, which will drive prices for physical assets like precious metals, energy, and food [32][35]. Group 5: Future Scenarios and Market Implications - The current geopolitical situation, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz, will significantly influence the dynamics of the commodity market, with potential scenarios ranging from temporary supply disruptions to prolonged physical blockades [56][57]. - The potential for a global energy crisis could lead to significant price increases for oil and other commodities, with the market reacting to both supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures [58][59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a short - position strategic allocation. Before Libya's mid - year production increase, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread and the Es Sider - Bonny/Girassol north - south spread at low prices. Short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, it already fully includes the current geopolitical premium, and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to take profits at high prices [5]. - For urea, despite the expected increase in downstream demand, the supply - demand is in a state of both growth. Considering the high price and demand expectations, there is no significant positive impact on the quota. The fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is advisable to short at high prices [8]. - For rubber, in the short term, treat BR as strong. If BR turns weak, consider short - selling RU. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and make quick trades. For hedging, it is suggested to open new positions or continue holding positions by buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the short - term fundamentals are weak, but the narrative logic is shifting to expectations. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price is expected to rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before observing the opportunity to go long [21]. - For polyethylene, the futures price is rising. The PE valuation still has room to decline, and the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has decreased. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the demand is recovering seasonally [24]. - For polypropylene, the futures price is rising. The supply pressure is relieved, and the downstream demand is rebounding seasonally. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [26]. - For PX, the load is expected to decline significantly in March, and it is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The supply - demand structure is strong, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [29]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and the PXN is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the foreign device maintenance volume has increased significantly, and the domestic market is entering the maintenance season. The load is expected to decline, and the import volume is expected to decrease significantly in March. The port inventory is expected to turn to de - stocking, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 112.10 yuan/barrel, a 16.99% increase, at 771.80 yuan/barrel. The high - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 660.00 yuan/ton, a 16.98% increase, to 4548.00 yuan/ton. The low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 656.00 yuan/ton, a 14.99% increase, to 5032.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Start a short - position strategic allocation. Before Libya's mid - year production increase, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread and the Es Sider - Bonny/Girassol north - south spread at low prices. Short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia changed by 340 yuan/ton, 345 yuan/ton, 265 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton, and 185 yuan/ton respectively. The main contract changed by 303.00 yuan/ton, at 2830 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 495 yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: It already fully includes the current geopolitical premium, and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to take profits at high prices [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China changed by - 20 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively. The overall basis was reported at - 55 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by 75 yuan/ton, at 1905 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy**: Despite the expected increase in downstream demand, the supply - demand is in a state of both growth. Considering the high price and demand expectations, there is no significant positive impact on the quota. The fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is advisable to short at high prices [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The sharp rise in crude oil due to the macro - situation drove up the price of downstream butadiene, and the price of butadiene rubber (BR) increased significantly. The increase in BR was much greater than that of natural rubber, which had a positive impact on the prices of rubber RU and NR. The market is changing rapidly, driven by macro factors and funds. The future trend of rubber is uncertain. Bulls believe in factors such as limited rubber production in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand in China, while bears think the macro - situation is uncertain, supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. As of March 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 66.41%, 34.11 percentage points higher than last week and 2.35 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.52%, 35.17 percentage points higher than last week and 8.89 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The overall factory has resumed production, but the export orders in the geopolitically affected areas have slowed down. As of February 23, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 136.6 million tons, a 7 - million - ton increase from the previous month, a 5.4% increase. As of February 24, 2026, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 6.28 million tons to 67.21 million tons compared with before the holiday. The spot prices of Thai standard mixed rubber, STR20, and STR20 mixed increased, and the prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang and cis - polybutadiene in North China also increased [11][12][13]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, treat BR as strong. If BR turns weak, consider short - selling RU. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and make quick trades. For hedging, it is suggested to open new positions or continue holding positions by buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 190 yuan, at 5466 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5700 (+680) yuan/ton, the basis was 234 (+490) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 111 (-25) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2325 (+225) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 870 (+20) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 655 (+21) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.1%, a 1% decrease from the previous month, including 80.7% for the calcium carbide method and 82.2% for the ethylene method, both with a 1% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 35.8%, a 18.7% increase from the previous month. The factory inventory was 45.8 million tons (-4.6), and the social inventory was 140.4 million tons (+5.1) [16]. - **Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals are weak, but the narrative logic is shifting to expectations. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price is expected to rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China was 10000 yuan/ton, a 2325 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 8155 yuan/ton, a 2325 - yuan/ton increase. The pure benzene basis was 1845 yuan/ton, a 1716 - yuan/ton increase. The spot price of styrene was 12000 yuan/ton, a 3000 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active styrene contract was 9587 yuan/ton, a 678 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 2413 yuan/ton, a 2322 - yuan/ton increase. The BZN spread was 191.62 yuan/ton, a 29 - yuan/ton increase. The non - integrated device profit of EB was 661 yuan/ton, an 888.25 - yuan/ton increase. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton decrease. The upstream operating rate was 74.11%, a 0.13% decrease. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 17.56 million tons, a 1.75 - million - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S was 40.79%, a 10.34% increase. The PS operating rate was 51.50%, a 2.10% increase, the EPS operating rate was 58.76%, a 46.59% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 69.50%, a 1.20% decrease [20]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before observing the opportunity to go long [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 7944 yuan/ton, a 253 - yuan/ton increase. The spot price was 9400 yuan/ton, a 1925 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 1456 yuan/ton, a 1672 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 86.73%, a 0.54% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 53.62 million tons, a 4.35 - million - ton decrease from the previous week, and the trader inventory was 5.77 million tons, a 1.08 - million - ton increase. The downstream average operating rate was 20%, a 1.78% increase. The LL5 - 9 spread was 188 yuan/ton, a 47 - yuan/ton decrease [23]. - **Strategy**: The futures price is rising. The PE valuation still has room to decline, and the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has decreased. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the demand is recovering seasonally [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8034 yuan/ton, a 237 - yuan/ton increase. The spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, a 1600 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 1316 yuan/ton, a 1363 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 73.61%, a 0.54% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 65.51 million tons, an 8.48 - million - ton decrease from the previous week, the trader inventory was 21.26 million tons, a 3.71 - million - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 8.14 million tons, a 0.72 - million - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 36.74%, an 8.49% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 90 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan/ton increase. The PP5 - 9 spread was 349 yuan/ton, a 58 - yuan/ton decrease [25]. - **Strategy**: The futures price is rising. The supply pressure is relieved, and the downstream demand is rebounding seasonally. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 358 yuan, at 9028 yuan. The PX CFR rose 267 US dollars, at 1346 US dollars. The basis was 1701 yuan (+1787), and the 5 - 7 spread was 304 yuan (+52). The PX load in China was 90.4%, a 2% decrease, and the Asian load was 83.2%, a 1.7% decrease. Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2.5 - million - ton device was under maintenance, Daxie stopped production, South Korea's S - oil 770,000 - ton device was under maintenance, and GS's 550,000 - ton device reduced its load. The PTA load was 81%, a 4.4% increase. In February, South Korea exported 41.5 million tons of PX to China, a 0.7 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of January was 4.64 billion tons, a 1 - million - ton decrease from the previous month. The PXN was 301 US dollars (+20), the South Korean PX - MX was 129 US dollars (-11), and the naphtha cracking spread was 92 US dollars (-54) [28]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline significantly in March, and it is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The supply - demand structure is strong, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 246 yuan, at 6316 yuan. The East China spot price rose 1335 yuan, at 7200 yuan. The basis was - 15 yuan (+22), and the 5 - 9 spread was 246 yuan (+46). The PTA load was 81%, a 4.4% increase. The downstream load was 83.5%, a 4% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 27 was 259.7 million tons, a 9.5 - million - ton increase. The PTA spot processing fee decreased by 72 yuan to 162 yuan, and the on - market processing fee increased by 11 yuan to 394 yuan [31]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and the PXN is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 220 yuan, at 4597 yuan. The East China spot price rose 546 yuan, at 4813 yuan. The basis was 37 yuan (+48), and the 5 - 9 spread was 106 yuan (+46). The ethylene glycol load was 73.3%, a 5.7% decrease, including 83% for the syngas - to - ethylene - glycol method, a 1% decrease, and 67.9% for the ethylene - to - ethylene - glycol method, an 8.3% decrease. Many domestic and foreign devices were under maintenance or reduced their loads. The downstream load was 83.5%, a 4% increase. The import arrival forecast was 10.8 million tons, and the East China departure volume on March 8 was 1.38 million tons. The port inventory was 106.8 million tons, a 6.6 - million - ton increase. The naphtha - to - ethylene - glycol profit was - 1794 yuan, the domestic ethylene - to - ethylene - glycol profit was - 918 yuan, and the coal - to - ethylene - glycol profit was - 273 yuan. The price of ethylene increased to 850 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines decreased to 580 yuan [34]. - **Strategy**: The foreign device maintenance volume has increased significantly, and the domestic market is entering the maintenance season. The load is expected to decline, and the import volume is expected to decrease significantly in March. The port inventory is expected to turn to de - stocking, but be cautious as the price has risen too much recently [

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes the impact of the US-Iran conflict on various financial and commodity markets. Trump's indication that the war against Iran will end soon has led to a recovery in market risk appetite and a weakening of the US dollar index. The conflict has also affected inflation, stock markets, and commodity prices, with different sectors showing varying degrees of response and trends. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump believes the war is almost over, and gold is in a volatile consolidation phase. The market risk appetite has recovered, and the pressure on precious metals from rising interest rates has weakened. [11] - Investment advice: Gold and silver are expected to move in a volatile manner. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's statement that the war against Iran will end soon leads to a recovery in market risk appetite and a weakening of the US dollar index. [13] - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to decline. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US short - term inflation and wage expectations have decreased. Trump says the war is almost over, and the G7 has not announced an immediate release of oil reserves. [15][16] - Investment advice: Short - term market volatility remains high, and it is recommended to wait and see. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's inflation in February exceeded expectations. The A - share market shows resilience, but short - term risk aversion is recommended. [19] - Investment advice: The stock index arbitrage strategy is preferred, with a long IC and short IM combination. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - February inflation data exceeded expectations, and the central bank conducted a 48.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The probability of a quick end to the US - Iran conflict is decreasing, and the bond market may experience short - term fluctuations and potential long - term upward trends. [22][23] - Investment advice: Consider mid - line long positions in treasury bond futures when the price is low. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In February, excavator sales decreased year - on - year, and the passenger car market sales in January also declined. Steel prices have rebounded due to rising energy prices, but the fundamentals of the finished product end remain under pressure. [25][26] - Investment advice: Steel prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical events. 2.2 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On March 9, the imported steam coal market was in a state of continuous game. Overseas coal prices have risen, while domestic coal prices are relatively stable. The duration of the Middle East conflict is the biggest uncertainty. [29] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the development of the Middle East conflict. Coal prices are expected to be in a volatile market in the short term and have upward risks in the long term. 2.3 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - A Canadian mining company is re - evaluating an iron ore project. Iron ore prices are in a volatile market, with potential upward cost pressure and uncertain demand. [31] - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see. 2.4 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is oscillating. The price increase is mainly due to the rise in crude oil prices. The supply is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering. [33] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the downstream inventory replenishment situation. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia may resume the B50 biodiesel mixing plan. The price of edible oils has fluctuated greatly, mainly following the trend of crude oil. [35][36] - Investment advice: If international oil prices remain high, palm oil prices may rise, but beware of price drops due to geopolitical uncertainties. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Brazil's corn exports in February increased year - on - year. The supply of corn is gradually increasing, and the demand has support. [37][38] - Investment advice: In the short term, the market is in a multi - factor game. In the long term, prices are expected to stabilize and rise, but the increase is limited. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Last week, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills increased, and the production of soybeans in Argentina is expected to be stable. The supply and demand of soybean meal are weak, but it may be strong in the short term. [40][42] - Investment advice: Pay close attention to the Middle East situation, crude oil, and CBOT soybean futures prices. Be cautious when chasing up. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - CATL's performance in 2025 was excellent. The supply of lithium carbonate has disturbances, and the demand has short - term support. [43][44] - Investment advice: In the short term, it is advisable to be bullish. In the long term, there is support from the new energy narrative. Look for opportunities to go long at low prices. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead has a large discount, and the domestic social inventory has increased. The lead price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation. [45][46] - Investment advice: Look for mid - line callback buying opportunities on the long side. Wait and see for arbitrage. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc has a discount, and the domestic inventory has increased. The zinc price may rise first and then fall, and it is recommended to wait and see. [48][49] - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term. Take profit on long positions at high prices. Consider mid - line positive arbitrage. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Citi is optimistic about Zijin Mining's production growth. The IEA suggests using aluminum to replace copper. The copper price may be in a high - level oscillation in the short term. [50][52] - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term. Observe positive arbitrage opportunities. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Platinum) - Some companies are increasing platinum production. The global platinum market will be in short supply in 2026. The platinum price is expected to be in a short - term oscillation. [53][54][56] - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term. Consider mid - line reverse arbitrage for the month spread. Look for opportunities to go long platinum and short palladium. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin has a discount. The supply of tin may increase in the short term, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. [57][58] - Investment advice: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate with limited downward space. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Trump says the military action against Iran will end soon, and the oil price has fluctuated sharply. [59][60] - Investment advice: The risk premium will be reversed after the market sentiment reaches its peak. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG has fluctuated due to market panic and subsequent news. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. [62] - Investment advice: Wait and see and track the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt has decreased. The asphalt price may decline due to the fall in international oil prices. [63] - Investment advice: The asphalt price will be volatile in the short term. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - The inventory of LLDPE has increased, and the price is expected to rise due to rising oil prices. [66] - Investment advice: Buy on dips and expand the 5 - 9 spread. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The price of urea in Shandong has increased. The Iran conflict has affected the overseas urea market, and the domestic market may see a pulse - type upward movement. [67][68] - Investment advice: Do not be overly aggressive in going long. Focus on potential reverse arbitrage opportunities for the 5 - 9 spread. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports has decreased. The trading logic of styrene has evolved, and it is still recommended to be bullish. [70][71] - Investment advice: Maintain a bullish view. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in North China is firm. The soda ash price is supported by cost and supply disturbances. [73] - Investment advice: The soda ash price has short - term support. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Guangdong is stable. The glass price may be volatile due to the rise in oil prices. [74][75] - Investment advice: The glass price may be volatile in the short term. 2.22 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Ningbo Port's container throughput in February increased year - on - year. The shipping market is affected by geopolitical factors, and the price is in a high - level oscillation. [76][77] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opening of MSK W13 and the price adjustment of other shipping companies.

Price Movements - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly in Iran, have led to increased volatility in upstream prices, with significant price surges observed in various commodities[3] - As of March 6, 2023, the INE container shipping index recorded a daily increase of 7.0%, with a month-on-month rise of 54.5%[5] - WTI crude oil futures reached $108.49 per barrel, up 19.35% in a single day, while Brent crude oil futures hit $108.53, increasing by 17.09%[4] Energy Market Insights - Iran's crude oil production is stable at 3.41-3.45 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 8% of OPEC+ total production and 3.2% of global output[8] - The cost of VLCC tanker rentals surged to $135,000 per day, marking a 145.5% increase year-to-date, driven by geopolitical risks and supply constraints[4] - Major energy products, including crude oil and fuel oil, saw month-on-month price increases of 36.1% and 28.2%, respectively[7] Chemical Products and Commodities - Prices for methanol, ethylene glycol, and other chemical products have shown significant increases, with methanol rising by 18.7% month-to-date and 16.7% year-to-date[11] - The geopolitical situation has led to supply constraints for urea, with Iran being the second-largest exporter globally, affecting global availability[11] - The price of lithium carbonate has decreased by 8.5% in March, reflecting broader market pressures and supply chain concerns[17]