首席 点 评 ： 美联储如期降息 美联储如期降息25基点，承认劳动力市场走弱，提及通胀上行；点阵图显示年内预计还降息两次，明年 预计降息一次。加拿大央行周三降息，将基准隔夜利率下调0.25个百分点至2.5%，这是自3月以来的首 次降息。香港特区行政长官17日11时在特区立法会宣读行政长官2025年施政报告。协助中概股以香港为 首选回归地；推动港股人民币交易柜台纳入"股票通"南向交易。推动香港机场管理局（机管局）及金融 机构在港拓展黄金仓储，以三年超越2000吨为目标，建造区域黄金储备枢纽。财政部：前八月全国一般 公共预算收入同比增加0.3%，支出同比增长3.1%，交易印花税收入大增81.7% 。 重点品种： 黄金、铜、股指 黄金： 美联储利率决议后金银波动加剧。9月美联储降息25个基点，符合市场预期。仅有刚被任命的美 联储理事米兰支持降息50个基点。点阵图显示美联储当下的中性预期为年内再降息50个基点，明年降息 25个基点，政策路径节奏上相对偏鹰。本周刚公布的美国8月零售销售表现强劲，环比增长0.6%，预估 为0.2%。同比增长2.1%，实现连续第11个月实现正增长。上周公布的8月CPI同比上涨2.9%。核心 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental factors will support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, expect the fundamental situation to gradually improve, and suggest paying attention to long - position opportunities at low prices and the 1 - 5 positive spread [4] - For urea, with weak demand and limited export support, the price is expected to move within a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions at low prices [6] - For rubber, adopt a long - term bullish view, and stay on the sidelines in the short term as the short - term trend follows that of industrial products [11] - For PVC, given the situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, pay attention to short - position opportunities at high prices, but beware of short - term upward movements [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, expect the BZN spread to repair in the long term. When the inventory reaches the inflection point of destocking, the styrene price may rebound. It is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [16] - For polyethylene, expect the price to fluctuate upward in the long term, and the cost provides support [18] - For polypropylene, in a context of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the price is affected by a large number of warehouse receipts, and there is no obvious short - term contradiction [19] - For PX, with high operating loads and expected inventory accumulation, there is currently no strong driving force, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [22] - For PTA, the pattern of inventory reduction continues, but the processing fee is suppressed. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [23] - For ethylene glycol, expect inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. Given the relatively high valuation, it is recommended to short at high prices, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [24] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The INE main crude oil futures closed up 5.80 yuan/barrel, a 1.18% increase, at 499.30 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 32.00 yuan/ton (1.14%) to 2831.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 63.00 yuan/ton (1.86%) to 3459.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Data**: The US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.29 million barrels to 415.36 million barrels (a 2.19% decrease), the SPR increased by 0.50 million barrels to 405.73 million barrels (a 0.12% increase), gasoline inventories decreased by 2.35 million barrels to 217.65 million barrels (a 1.07% decrease), diesel inventories increased by 4.05 million barrels to 124.68 million barrels (a 3.35% increase), fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.41 million barrels to 20.80 million barrels (a 1.93% decrease), and aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.63 million barrels to 43.90 million barrels (a 1.46% increase) [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 17, the 01 contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 2376 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 94 [4] - **Fundamentals**: The high - inventory pattern at ports remains unchanged, and the market structure is still weak, but most of the negative factors have been priced in. Enterprise profits are good, overseas operating rates are high, and arrivals are increasing, resulting in sufficient supply. The profit of port MTO is relatively good year - on - year, traditional demand is weak but there are expectations of a peak season, and demand is expected to improve marginally. Port inventories have reached a new high under high supply, while inland enterprise inventories are lower year - on - year [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 17, the 01 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 1681 yuan/ton, the spot price remained stable, and the basis was - 41 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic enterprise inventories are slowly rising, and the overall inventory level is high. It is the off - season for domestic agricultural demand, and the operating rate of compound fertilizers has rebounded but is still in a seasonal decline. Overall, demand is weak, and export support is limited [6] Rubber - **Supply**: The forecasted rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is expected to decrease marginally, reducing the positive supply factors [8] - **Market Sentiment**: Bulls are optimistic about rubber due to seasonal expectations, limited rubber production in Southeast Asia (especially Thailand) due to weather and rubber forest conditions, and improved demand expectations in China. Bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, the seasonal off - season for demand, and the possibility that supply benefits may be lower than expected [9] - **Industry Conditions**: As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.87%, up 6.17 percentage points from the previous week and 5.23 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.30%, up 5.23 percentage points from the previous week but down 4.53 percentage points from the same period last year. The export expectation has declined after the previous rush of export orders to Europe. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 125.8 tons, a 0.7 - ton (0.57%) decrease; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.3 tons, a 0.5% decrease; and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 46.5 tons, a 0.7% decrease. As of September 14, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 45.8 (- 0.62) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was priced at 14950 (- 150) yuan, STR20 at 1860 (- 10) dollars, and STR20 mixed at 1855 (- 10) dollars. The price of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9250 (0) yuan, and the price of cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11500 (0) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 13 yuan to 4973 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4790 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 183 (- 13) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 303 (- 2) yuan/ton [13] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased by 50 yuan to 2550 yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade blue charcoal was 680 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 850 (0) dollars/ton, and the price of caustic soda was 820 (0) yuan/ton [13] - **Fundamentals**: The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.9%, a 2.8% increase; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based production was 79.4%, a 2.7% increase; and the operating rate of ethylene - based production was 81.3%, a 3.2% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 47.5%, a 4% increase. Factory inventory was 31 tons (- 0.6), and social inventory was 93.4 tons (+ 1.6). The comprehensive enterprise profit is at a high level this year, with high valuation pressure, few maintenance activities, and high production. Multiple new plants are expected to be put into operation in the short term. Although domestic downstream operating rates have improved, the export expectation has weakened after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate [13] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices rose, while futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with significant upward adjustment potential [15] - **Cost and Supply**: The operating rate of pure benzene is moderately volatile, and the supply is still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has decreased, but the operating rate of styrene production has been increasing. Styrene port inventories have been significantly reduced [15][16] - **Demand**: As the seasonal peak season approaches, the overall operating rate of the three S products has been declining [16] - **Fundamentals**: The price of pure benzene in East China was 5970 yuan/ton (no change), the spot price of styrene was 7200 yuan/ton (a 75 - yuan increase), the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7138 yuan/ton (a 20 - yuan decrease), the basis was 62 yuan/ton (a 95 - yuan increase), the BZN spread was 136.12 yuan/ton (a 5.62 - yuan increase), the profit of non - integrated styrene production was - 405.3 yuan/ton (a 30 - yuan decrease), the 1 - 2 spread of styrene was 69 yuan/ton (a 19 - yuan decrease), the upstream operating rate was 75% (a 4.70% decrease), the port inventory in Jiangsu was 17.65 tons (a 2.00 - ton decrease), the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.73% (a 1.11% decrease), the operating rate of PS was 61.00% (a 1.10% increase), the operating rate of EPS was 52.52% (a 5.82% decrease), and the operating rate of ABS was 69.00% (a 1.80% decrease) [16] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance at the end of the third quarter, and cost support remains [18] - **Fundamentals**: The spot price remained unchanged, and the valuation of PE has limited downward space, but the number of warehouse receipts at the same period in history is high, suppressing the futures price. There are only 40 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory is being reduced from a high level, providing support for the price. As the seasonal peak season may be approaching, the raw material inventory for agricultural films has started to build up, and the overall operating rate has stabilized at a low level [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. There is still 145 tons of planned production capacity, resulting in high supply pressure. The downstream operating rate has rebounded from a seasonal low [19] - **Fundamentals**: In a context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no obvious short - term contradiction. The large number of warehouse receipts at the same period in history suppresses the futures price [19] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 10 yuan to 6772 yuan, the PX CFR price rose 2 dollars to 836 dollars, the basis was 71 yuan (+ 5) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 11 - 1 spread was 32 yuan (- 10) [21] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate in China was 87.8%, a 4.1% increase; the operating rate in Asia was 79%, a 2.5% increase. CNOOC Huizhou increased its production, Fuhua Group restarted, and an overseas 19 - ton plant of Japan's Eneos restarted [21] - **Imports and Inventories**: In early September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 10.6 tons, a 0.6 - ton decrease compared to the same period last year. The inventory at the end of July was 389.9 tons, a 24 - ton decrease from the previous month [21] - **Valuation and Cost**: The PXN was 229 dollars (+ 1), and the naphtha cracking spread was 103 dollars (- 11). Currently, the PX operating rate remains high, while the downstream PTA has experienced many unexpected maintenance activities in the short term, with a relatively low overall operating rate. The new plant commissioning is expected to be postponed, leading to continuous inventory accumulation of PX, and there is currently no strong driving force for the PXN to rise [21][22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 24 yuan to 4712 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4620 yuan, the basis was - 77 yuan (+ 3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 36 yuan (+ 10) [23] - **Operating Rates**: The PTA operating rate was 76.8%, a 4.6% increase. Dushan Energy and Hengli Huizhou restarted. The downstream operating rate was 91.6%, a 0.3% increase, with little change in the plants. The operating rate of terminal texturing remained at 78%, and the operating rate of looms remained at 66% [23] - **Inventories**: On September 5, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 207 tons, a 5 - ton decrease [23] - **Valuation and Cost**: The spot processing fee of PTA remained unchanged at 131 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 11 yuan to 291 yuan. In the future, the unexpected maintenance volume on the supply side remains high, and the inventory reduction pattern continues. However, due to the weak long - term outlook, the processing fee is continuously suppressed. The inventory and profit pressure of polyester fibers on the demand side are low, and the operating rate is expected to remain high, but the terminal recovery speed is slow [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 25 yuan to 4297 yuan, the East China spot price fell 12 yuan to 4373 yuan, the basis was 81 yuan (- 10), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 61 yuan (- 11) [24] - **Supply**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol was 74.9%, a 1.2% increase. The operating rate of syngas - based production was 76.7%, a 3.1% increase, and the operating rate of ethylene - based production remained unchanged. Some syngas - based plants had production stoppages and restarts, and overseas plants also had some changes in their operating status. The import arrival forecast was 9.4 tons, and the departure volume from East China ports on September 16 was 0.67 tons [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 91.6%, a 0.3% increase, with little change in the plants. The operating rate of terminal texturing remained at 78%, and the operating rate of looms remained at 66% [24] - **Inventories and Valuation**: The port inventory was 46.5 tons, a 0.6 - ton increase. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 613 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 784 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 812 yuan. The cost of ethylene increased to 850 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder increased to 570 yuan. Currently, the operating rates of domestic and overseas plants are high, and the domestic supply is large. Although the port arrival volume is expected to be low in the short term, the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term due to concentrated imports, high domestic operating rates, and the commissioning of new plants. The valuation is currently relatively high year - on - year [24]

Gold Market - Gold prices reached an important level of $3,700, marking a historical high with a year-to-date increase of over 40%, making it one of the best-performing assets globally this year [1] - The last time such a significant annual increase in gold prices occurred was in 1979, driven by an energy crisis that raised global inflation and impacted the world economy [1] - Historical trends indicate that when the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates during rising inflation, gold tends to perform well, with prices never declining in the following year under such conditions over the past 25 years [1] - Analysts suggest that gold may replicate the bull market of the late 1970s, as a new rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve has begun, leading to inevitable inflation increases and enhanced attractiveness of gold [1] - Technical analysis shows signs of a potential short-term downward trend in gold prices, with a key resistance level at $3,675 [1] Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a slight rebound but remain limited due to a dual challenge of increasing supply and demand concerns, indicating that the rebound potential is constrained [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global supply growth will exceed expectations by 2025, driven by OPEC+'s production increase plans aimed at regaining market share [2] - OPEC+ may tolerate a mid-term decline in oil prices as their production costs are significantly lower than shale oil, despite the potential for a weaker dollar due to Federal Reserve rate cuts providing limited support for oil prices [2] - Recent data shows a decline in long positions and net long positions in WTI crude oil futures, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [2] - Technical indicators suggest that oil prices are facing downward pressure, with a resistance level at $64.60 [2] Dollar Index - The dollar index hit a new low since early July, breaking out of previous trading ranges, indicating potential for further declines [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut, with investors closely monitoring the extent of the cut, as inflation concerns may lead to a cautious approach from the Fed [3] - Diverging opinions among Federal Reserve officials exist regarding the number of rate cuts, creating uncertainty about the continuity of future rate cuts [3] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend in the dollar index, with a potential for short-term rebounds, focusing on a resistance level at 97.20 [4] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index closed with a small bearish candle, indicating overbought conditions and potential for a price pullback [5] - A breakout above previous trading ranges could signal a completion of the current structure, prompting consideration for exiting long positions if acceleration occurs [5] Copper Market - Copper prices showed a slight decline, facing significant resistance from upper price levels [6] - Technical indicators suggest weakening upward momentum, with potential for further short-term adjustments, focusing on a resistance level at $4.57 [6] Economic Data Overview - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, surpassing market expectations of 0.5% and previous value of 0.2% [7] - Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index rose from 25.1 to 26.1, indicating improved economic outlook [8] - Eurozone's industrial production for July rebounded to 0.3% from a previous -0.6%, although still below market expectations of 0.4% [8] Upcoming Economic Events - Eurozone's final CPI year-on-year for August is expected to remain at 2.1% [9] - U.S. new housing starts for August are projected at an annualized rate of 1.365 million units, down from the previous 1.428 million [10] - U.S. EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending September 12 is anticipated to show a decrease of 857,000 barrels, contrasting with a previous increase of 3.939 million barrels [11]

Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales show marginal improvement, with a 2.3% year-on-year increase in transaction area for 30 major cities as of September 14, 2025. First-tier cities saw a significant increase of 13.2% in transaction area [7][10] - Durable goods consumption is declining, with a 10.0% year-on-year decrease in retail sales of passenger cars during the first week of September. Air conditioning production for both domestic and international markets also saw declines of 6.3% and 16.6% respectively [8][12] Midstream Manufacturing - Construction demand remains weak, but manufacturing activity has improved. The operating rate for manufacturing increased significantly, with a 6.8% rise in the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants [30][34] - The price of rebar has decreased by 1.5%, while the operating rate of blast furnaces has increased by 3.5%, indicating a rebound in steel production despite weak demand [16][17] Upstream Resources - Coal prices remain resilient, with a slight increase of 0.1% in the price of thermal coal as of September 12, 2025. Supply expectations are tight due to ongoing industry consolidation [35][36] - Prices for non-ferrous metals and crude oil have risen, with gold prices increasing by 0.9% and Brent crude oil prices rising by 2.3% due to heightened expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [37][38] Logistics and Passenger Flow - Long-distance passenger transport is experiencing seasonal declines, while urban transport activity has increased. Subway ridership in major cities rose by 3.6% week-on-week [42][48] - Freight transport shows marginal improvement, with highway truck traffic increasing by 6.2% and railway freight volume rising by 1.8% [53][54] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has increased by 7.4%, indicating a significant rise in dry bulk shipping rates [55][57]

Group 1 - The domestic energy sector in the futures market showed mixed results, with crude oil futures experiencing a slight increase, reaching a high of 502.5 yuan per barrel, marking a 1.60% rise [1] - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the intensified conflict between Russia and Ukraine, have led to attacks on Russian refineries and export ports, impacting crude oil supply [1] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision is expected to provide short-term support for commodity markets, with a minimum rate cut of 25 basis points anticipated [1] Group 2 - Transneft, responsible for transporting over 80% of Russian oil, has begun to limit oil companies' storage in its pipeline system, despite denials from the company [2] - Increased attacks on Russian energy facilities by Ukraine and the potential for new sanctions from Western countries are contributing to the current high oil prices [2] - Despite the geopolitical premium dissipating, OPEC's minimal production increase is viewed as a market pressure test, with current oil prices considered relatively undervalued [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market may pre - price the Fed's probability of restarting interest rate cuts during the September interest rate meeting this week [2]. - The technology sector in stock index futures has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors [2]. - Treasury bond futures first declined and then rose, with an increasing expectation of central bank bond - buying [2]. - The Fed's decision may intensify market divergence and increase short - term volatility [2]. - The main contract of the container shipping index is weakly volatile [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, driving up steel prices [2]. - Iron ore prices are supported by factors such as resumed shipments, increased hot metal production, and restocking demand [2]. - The prices of some energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply - demand patterns, production maintenance, and inventory changes [2]. - The prices of some agricultural products are influenced by factors like supply, demand, and market sentiment [2]. - Some special and new - energy commodities are affected by factors such as cost, macro - environment, and industry meetings [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The technology mainline in stock index futures has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors. If volatility continues to decline, a double - buying strategy for options can be attempted [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures first declined and then rose, with an increasing expectation of central bank bond - buying. A unilateral strategy suggests investors wait and see, and pay short - term attention to changes in the capital market, the equity market, and fundamentals [2]. Precious Metals - Before the Fed's decision, the expectation of easing has been rising, and the US dollar index has fallen to the lowest point of the year. For gold, it is recommended to wait and see and then buy on dips after the decision. An option double - buying strategy at the strike price of 840 can be tried. Silver has high elasticity above $42, but volatility may rise and then fall after the decision. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on rallies [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The main contract is weakly volatile, and a spread arbitrage between December and October can be considered [2]. Steel and Related Products - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. It is recommended to go long on steel in the short term. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and short hot - rolled coils. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300, and short coke. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and short coke [2]. Energy and Chemical Products - For crude oil, it is recommended to mainly wait and see unilaterally. For urea, wait and see unilaterally, with a short - term support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton. For PX, it is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 6900 in the short term. For PTA, it is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4800 in the short term and conduct a rolling reverse spread between TA1 and TA5. For short - fiber, it has no obvious short - term driver and follows raw materials. For bottle - grade polyester chips, its demand may decline in September, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton. For ethylene glycol, wait and see unilaterally and conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread. For caustic soda, wait and see. For PVC, wait and see. For pure benzene, it follows styrene and oil prices in the short term. For styrene, conduct a rolling low - buying strategy and pay attention to the pressure around 7200, and widen the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level. For synthetic rubber, its price is expected to fluctuate between 11400 - 12500. For LLDPE, it will oscillate between 7150 - 7450 in the short term. For PP, it is slightly bullish. For methanol, conduct range - bound operations between 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and related products, operate the 01 contract in the range of 3000 - 3100. For live pigs, the market is in a weakly volatile pattern. For corn, be cautious about short - selling. For palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, observe whether the main contract of palm oil can stabilize above 9500. For sugar, pay attention to the pressure level around 5700 - 5750. For cotton, wait and see unilaterally. For eggs, reduce previous short positions and control positions. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, pay attention to the support at 10700. For soda ash, wait and see [2]. Special and New - Energy Commodities - For glass, wait and see and pay attention to the sentiment of the spot market during the peak season. For rubber, it is in a high - level oscillation due to positive macro - sentiment. For industrial silicon, it is strongly volatile, with the main price fluctuation range expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is highly concerned about the Fed's interest rate decision, with a general expectation of a 25bp rate cut. Most commodities are in a state of waiting for the outcome of the meeting, and their short - term trends are affected by this expectation [4][6][16]. - Domestic policies are being introduced to boost service consumption, and the A - share market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, while the bond market remains on the sidelines [3]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand fundamentals, which, combined with macro - factors, determine their price trends. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomics - Overseas: The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, higher than expected, indicating strong consumption. The market is waiting for the FOMC result, with the US dollar index falling, and the gold price hitting a new high [2]. - Domestic: The Ministry of Commerce and other nine departments have introduced new policies for service consumption. The A - share market is oscillating, with more than 3,600 stocks rising. The bond market is sensitive to negatives, and the 10Y and 30Y interest rates have been restored to 1.78% and 2.08% respectively [3]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver showed mixed performance. COMEX gold futures rose 0.23% to $3,727.5 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 0.19% to $42.88 per ounce. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, but some funds are cautious as the rate - cut approaches [4]. Copper - Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market is cautious. The expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut this month may have been digested. The market is highly concerned about the future path of the "dot plot". Part of the overseas long - position funds have taken profits in advance. The dollar index is continuously weakening, and the copper price still has upward potential in the medium term [6]. Aluminum - The aluminum price continued to oscillate strongly. The market's strong expectation of a Fed rate cut has boosted the aluminum price. However, high prices have restricted downstream procurement to some extent. The consumption peak season needs to be verified, and the price needs fundamental support to rise further [7][8]. Zinc - The expectation of a large - scale rate cut has weakened. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, supporting the price of London zinc and thus the Shanghai zinc price. The domestic downstream procurement is still cautious, and the zinc price oscillates narrowly in the short term [9]. Lead - The expectation of refinery复产 has increased, and the supply - side support for the lead price has weakened. However, the expected stocking demand of downstream battery enterprises during the National Day holiday and the expected outflow of some goods after delivery will support the price. The lead price is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term [10]. Tin - The LME 0 - 3 BACK has slightly widened, and the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and domestic refinery maintenance support the price. However, the increase in inventory at home and abroad and insufficient downstream consumption make it difficult for the price to rise. The tin price will continue to oscillate horizontally in the short term [11]. Industrial Silicon - The demand expectation has improved, and the industrial silicon price is running strongly. The supply is slightly shrinking, and the demand side shows signs of improvement. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [12][13]. Carbonate Lithium - The lithium price may still rise. The downstream stocking expectation is strong, but the acceptance of prices is weak. The risk of resource disruption has not been eliminated, and the high - level emphasis on anti - involution provides support for the price [14]. Nickel - As the Fed's interest rate meeting approaches, the market generally expects a 25bp rate cut. If there is no more - than - expected rate cut, the nickel price may experience a phased correction. The nickel ore market is generally loose, and the domestic nickel - iron cost pressure remains [15][16]. Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions and inventory reduction have led to an oscillating and strengthening oil price. Although the market has a strong expectation of oversupply in the fourth quarter, the significant reduction in API crude oil inventory has boosted the bulls' sentiment. Geopolitical premiums are continuously factored in [17][18]. Soda Ash and Glass - Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities. The soda ash price increase may be related to demand and macro - expectations. The glass factory's shipment is smooth, and the market expects the Fed's interest rate meeting to drive domestic liquidity release. One can pay attention to the opportunity of the narrowing spread between glass and soda ash [19][20]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price is oscillating. After the continuous rise, the market sentiment has been released, and the fundamental demand is poor. The supply has increased, and the peak - season expectation is difficult to be fulfilled. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Fed's rate cut on the market [21]. Iron Ore - The port inventory has decreased, and the futures price is oscillating and rebounding. The external ore shipment has increased significantly, and the demand side is supported by the high - level resumption of blast - furnace operation. There is still an expectation of restocking in mid - to - late September [22]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The market trading is light, and the Dalian soybean meal is oscillating within a range. The short - term supply is under pressure, and the long - term import is uncertain. The future trend depends on the US bio - fuel redistribution plan and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations [23][24]. Palm Oil - The palm oil is oscillating and adjusting. The price of edible oils, including palm oil, is expected to be firm. The supply is expected to be less than the demand in 2025 and 2026. The strong performance of rapeseed oil and the impact of weather on palm oil production and export support the price [25].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting is underway, with concerns about the impact of recent personnel changes on interest rate decisions, leading to a cautious market sentiment [1] - Major U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.27%, S&P 500 down 0.13%, and Nasdaq down 0.07%, while Chinese concept stocks rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up nearly 1.8% [1] Group 2 - Following the Federal Reserve meeting, there is a high probability (96%) of a 25 basis point rate cut, with further cuts in October and December also likely (over 70%) [4] - International gold prices surged, with London spot gold prices surpassing $3,700 per ounce, and New York December gold futures closing at $3,725.1 per ounce, up 0.16% [4] Group 3 - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding expectations, driven by strong online retail, clothing, and sports goods sales, likely influenced by back-to-school shopping [10] - The robust consumer spending may provide new considerations for the Federal Reserve's rate cut decisions amid economic challenges [10] Group 4 - European stock indices fell as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with notable declines in bank stocks [12] - The UK's unemployment rate remained high, and average wage growth has slowed, raising concerns among investors and contributing to the downward pressure on European indices [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda futures market is stabilizing, with overall commodity sentiment positive. Supply may decline due to planned maintenance, and demand from the alumina industry is weakening, while non - alumina demand is improving but with limited price support. Spot prices may stabilize, and the downside of futures prices is limited [27]. - The PVC futures market is rebounding, driven by macro - sentiment. Supply is expected to decrease due to more maintenance this week, and demand from downstream products is slightly increasing. The cost side is providing bottom support, and it is expected to stop falling in the peak season from September to October [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, supply is increasing to a relatively high level, and short - term demand has some support, but the upside is limited. It is expected to fluctuate between 6600 - 6900 in the short term [30]. - PTA's spot market liquidity is good, and the medium - term supply - demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate between 4600 - 4800 in the short term, and TA1 - 5 should be rolled in a reverse spread [30]. - Ethylene glycol's supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. It is expected to reduce inventory in September but increase inventory in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and use EG1 - 5 reverse spread [30]. - Short - fiber's short - term supply - demand is weak, and it mainly follows raw material fluctuations. The single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1100 [30]. - Bottle - chip's supply increases slightly, and demand may decline. It mainly follows cost fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [30]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene's supply is at a relatively high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to be supported by the strong oil price and good macro - atmosphere, and BZ2603 should follow styrene to fluctuate strongly [35]. - Styrene's price is strongly supported but the upside is limited by high port inventory. EB10 should be bought at low prices, and the EB11 - BZ11 spread should be widened at low levels [35]. Urea Industry - Urea futures have rebounded in the past two days, driven by supply - side maintenance expectations. Demand is mainly supported by export and industrial needs, and the futures increase is mainly due to short - covering and expectation differences [39][40]. Methanol Industry - Methanol's supply in the inland is at a high level, and demand is weak due to the traditional off - season. The inventory pattern is relatively healthy, and the overall valuation is neutral. The market is swinging between high - inventory reality and overseas gas - restriction expectations, and the inventory inflection point should be monitored [42]. LLDPE - PP Industry - PP's PDH and propylene - purchasing profits are suppressed, with more unplanned maintenance and falling inventory, but the basis is still weak. PE's maintenance is at a relatively high level, with short - term low supply pressure, rising basis, and inventory reduction. Demand for new orders is poor, and the market is in a state of "decreasing supply and increasing demand" [45]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts, which increased concerns about supply disruptions of Russian refined oil and crude oil. The market's focus has shifted to immediate supply risks, and the oil price is likely to run along the upper edge of the shock range in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side, and look for opportunities to widen spreads on the options side after volatility increases [48] Summary by Directory Chlor - Alkali Industry - **PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: On September 16, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's price decreased by 3.0%, and Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda's price decreased by 4.4%. The prices of East - China PVC increased, and the prices of related futures contracts also changed slightly [27]. - **Supply**: The overall PVC start - up rate increased by 4.2% to 79.4%, while the profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide PVC decreased by 12.8% [27]. - **Demand**: The start - up rates of alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries all increased slightly, and the start - up rates of downstream PVC products also increased [27]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased by 17.0%, and the total social inventory of PVC decreased slightly by 0.3% [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On September 16, the prices of most downstream polyester products increased slightly, and the cash flows of some products changed [30]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX price decreased by 0.2%, and PX - naphtha spread increased by 0.9% [30]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA's spot price increased by 0.2%, and the processing fee of PTA's spot increased by 19.6% [30]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: MEG's spot price increased by 0.2%, and the basis of EG01 increased [30]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Start - up Rate Changes**: The start - up rates of Asian PX, Chinese PX, and PTA all increased, while the start - up rate of pure - polyester yarn decreased [30]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On September 16, the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, and the price of CFR China pure benzene increased by 0.3% [35]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of styrene's East - China spot increased by 0.8%, and the cash flows of non - integrated and integrated styrene improved [35]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [35]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased [35]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Start - up Rate Changes**: The start - up rates of some products in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain decreased, while the start - up rates of downstream PS and EPS increased [35]. Urea Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: On September 16, the prices of urea futures contracts increased slightly, and the price of methanol futures decreased [39]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of most upstream raw materials of urea remained stable, and the estimated production costs of fixed - bed and water - coal - slurry remained unchanged [40]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The prices of urea in different regions changed slightly, with some increasing and some decreasing [40]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: The daily and weekly production of domestic urea increased slightly, and the factory inventory increased by 3.44%, while the port inventory decreased by 11.52% [40]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: On September 16, the prices of methanol futures contracts decreased, and the basis and regional spreads changed [42]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The enterprise, port, and social inventories of methanol increased [42]. - **Methanol Upstream - Downstream Start - up Rates**: The start - up rates of upstream domestic enterprises and overseas exchanges decreased, while the start - up rates of some downstream products increased [42]. LLDPE - PP Industry - **Product Prices and Spreads**: On September 16, the prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts increased slightly, and the spreads between different contracts and the basis changed [45]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP increased [45]. - **Upstream - Downstream Start - up Rates**: The start - up rates of PE and PP devices decreased, while the start - up rates of some downstream products increased [45]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On September 17, the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and the spreads between different contracts and different types of crude oil changed [48]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the spreads between different contracts of refined oil changed [48]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [48].

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 3651.10, 42.26, 1399.00, 1218.00, 63.30, and 10119.50 respectively, with changes of 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, and 38.00 [2] - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 97.36, 1.18, 1.36, 147.42, and 1.68 respectively, with changes of 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00 [2] Group 2: Trading Data - The latest inventories of COMEX Silver, SHFE Silver, and SGE Silver are 16411.68, 1231.26, and 1283.61 respectively, with changes of 0.00, - 12.22, and 0.00 [3] - The latest holdings of Gold ETF and Silver ETF are 976.81 and 15059.74 respectively, with changes of 0.00 and 0.00 [3] - The latest deferred - fee payment directions of SGE Silver and SGE Gold are 2 and 1 respectively, with changes of 1.00 and 0.00 [3]