1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - No clear - stated core view in the given content. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Price Performance - **Precious Metals and Commodities**: London gold's latest price is 4714.75 with a change of - 267.10; London silver's change is noted as 127 (unit unclear); London platinum is at 2300.00 with a change of - 492.00; London lithium is 1820.00 with a change of - 286.00; WTI crude oil is 62.14 with a change of - 3.07; LME copper is 12507.50 with a change of - 768.50 [1] - **Currencies and Bonds**: The latest dollar index is 97.61 with a change of 0.50; euro - to - dollar is 1.18 with a change of - 0.01; pound - to - dollar is 1.37 with a change of - 0.00; dollar - to - yen is 155.60 with a change of 0.83 [1] Trading Data - **Inventory and ETF Holdings**: COMEX silver inventory is 12618.61 with a change of - 5.88;上期所白银库存is 462.62 with a change of 7.55; gold ETF持仓is 1087.10 with no change;白银ETF持仓is 16546.59 with a change of 1023.23;上金所自银库存is 506.49 with no change [1] Precious Metals Ratios - **Gold - related Ratios**: There are graphs showing gold - crude oil ratio, gold - copper ratio, gold - platinum ratio, and platinum - aluminum ratio over different time periods from 2016 - 2025 [1] - **Other Ratios**: COMEX - London spread and import profit ratios for gold and silver are presented in graphical forms [1] Other Graphs - **US Treasury Rates and Spreads**: Graphs show the relationship between US Treasury yields (including 10 - year TIPS), Treasury spreads, and London spot gold prices from 2016 - 2026 [4] - **ETF Holdings and Inventories**: Graphs display the changes in COMEX silver inventory, LBMA silver inventory, Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventories, as well as gold and silver ETF holdings from 2016 - 2026 [4] - **Shanghai Gold Exchange Positions and Deliveries**: Graphs show the positions and deliveries of gold and silver at the Shanghai Gold Exchange from 2016 - 2025 [4] - **Shanghai Gold Exchange Deferred Fees**: Graphs present the payment directions of gold and silver deferred fees at the Shanghai Gold Exchange from 2017 - 2025 [4] - **COMEX Non - commercial Long Positions**: Graph shows the proportion of non - commercial long positions in COMEX gold and silver from 1986 - 2024 [4]

沃什接棒联储会改变周期逻辑吗？20260202 摘要 Kevin Warsh 被提名为美联储主席后，市场普遍认为他是"缩表派"， 可能推动美联储缩减资产负债表，给各类资产带来不确定性，投资者需 关注其具体实施细节。 Warsh 曾批评美联储的数据依赖路径，并多次强调通胀风险，市场认为 他可能更偏鹰派，更加关注通胀问题，投资者需警惕其政策对通胀的潜 在影响。 Warsh 与特朗普总统关系密切，可能减少美联储与白宫之间的摩擦，但 也可能导致政策冲突，如 Warsh 倾向于缩表与特朗普希望低利率刺激经 济的目标相悖。 当前金融系统面临流动性风险和波动性增加的挑战，美联储新主席人选 的不确定性加剧了市场波动，投资者应重新评估风险并调整投资策略。 全球主要经济体面临高通胀、货币贬值和财政不可持续性的债务管理挑 战，各国央行倾向于容忍较高通胀以降低实际债务负担，可能导致金融 抑制。 Q&A Kevin Warsh 被提名为下一届美联储主席后，市场对其政策方向有哪些解读？ 市场对 Kevin Warsh 的政策方向有多方面的解读。首先，Warsh 曾公开表示 对 2008 年后的大规模量化宽松（QE）非常不满，并因此辞去上 ...

Oil Market - On Monday, oil prices saw a significant decline, with WTI March contract closing down by $3.07 to $62.14 per barrel, a drop of 4.71% [2] - Brent April contract closed down by $3.02 to $66.3 per barrel, a decrease of 4.36% [2] - SC2603 closed at 450 yuan per barrel, down by 22.7 yuan, a decline of 4.8% [2] - Iranian President ordered to initiate nuclear negotiations with the U.S., which may lead to high-level talks in the coming days [2] - OPEC+ decided to maintain March oil production unchanged due to weak seasonal demand [2] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil FU2603 fell by 7.01% to 2679 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil LU2604 dropped by 5.92% to 3128 yuan/ton [3] - Supply from Western arbitrage shipments is expected to remain high, keeping the low-sulfur market well supplied [3][4] - Demand for marine fuel oil is anticipated to increase before the Spring Festival [3] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt BU2603 decreased by 4.879% to 3299 yuan/ton [5] - Northern regions are primarily focused on downstream stocking, while overall refinery inventory levels are expected to rise as transportation halts during the Spring Festival [5][6] Rubber - Shanghai rubber main contract RU2605 fell by 380 yuan/ton to 15980 yuan/ton, with NR main contract down by 310 yuan/ton to 12925 yuan/ton [6] - Natural rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased by 3.32% to 10.57 million tons [6] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5092 yuan/ton, down 3.38%, while EG2605 closed at 3767 yuan/ton, down 3.73% [7] - PX futures closed at 7150 yuan/ton, also down 3.38% [7] - The overall polyester production and sales are estimated to be low, around 20-30% [7] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2230 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $269 to $273 per ton [8] - Domestic production is expected to slightly decrease in February, while imports are anticipated to decline from high levels [8] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China ranged from 6600 to 6780 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9] - The market is entering a holiday phase, leading to an increase in inventory [9] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4770 to 4860 yuan/ton [10] - The demand for PVC in downstream construction is expected to weaken as real estate activity declines [10] Urea - Urea prices remained stable, with some regions experiencing slight adjustments [11] - Daily production is fluctuating above 210,000 tons, with expectations for further supply increases [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices remained mostly stable, with some regions seeing slight declines [12] - The industry operating rate was reported at 82.29%, down 2.69 percentage points [12] Glass - Glass prices slightly decreased, with the average price at 1106 yuan/ton [14] - The market is facing pressure from declining demand as the Spring Festival approaches [14]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-03 油⽓价格回落，化⼯成本⽀撑减弱 据路透，特朗普表示伊朗正与华盛顿进行对话，美伊局势缓和预期带 动原油地缘溢价快速回落。另一方面，路透显示美国气温趋缓带动天然气 高位回落，前期取暖需求及油气替代的利多因素同步消退。Kpler数据显 示2月1日当周全球原油库存自低点大幅回升，随着CPC发运量底部回升， 俄罗斯港口原油发运量已回升至同期高位，路透显示目前哈萨克斯坦油田 仍处复产期，2月1日前已恢复20%产能。原油现实层面的供应压力仍在， 美伊局势主导短线波动，若地缘担忧持续缓和，仍存向下压力，对油化工 可能形成阶段性拖累。 板块逻辑： 原油价格下挫，2月2日能化板块中油品系跌幅居首。聚酯开工快速回 落，PTA加工费阶段性承压，纯苯及苯乙烯后续存去库预期，价格预计震 荡偏强。伊朗担忧减弱后，甲醇、燃料油均有地缘溢价消退，烯烃端虽年 内仍面临供应增量，但短期存在检修支撑。整体来看，化工预计表现震 荡，持续关注成本端指引。（以上数据及信息来源为路透、隆众及CCF） 原油：供应压力仍在，地缘主导节奏 沥青：原油重挫，沥青期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap due to Iran's supply disruption, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, with a mid - term layout as the main operation idea [2] - For methanol, the current price has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums, which strongly suppresses the downstream. The negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside space [5] - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are coming, so it is advisable to short at high levels [7] - For rubber, with significant commodity price drops and large volatility, it is recommended to conduct short - term trading based on the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. The position of buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 can be restored [12] - For PVC, the industry's comprehensive profit is at a relatively low - to - neutral level, with little reduction in supply and high production. Domestic demand is entering the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. Although short - term export incentives exist, the overall domestic supply - demand situation shows strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to subsequent changes in production capacity and operation [14] - For pure benzene and styrene, the current non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. With the supply still abundant, port inventories increasing, and demand weakening in the off - season, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and profits can be gradually taken [18] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene has fallen, and there is still room for downward valuation. With the supply pressure relieved and demand weakening in the off - season, the price may be supported [21] - For polypropylene, the EIA forecast indicates a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and supply surplus may ease. With no new production capacity planned in H1 2026, the supply pressure is relieved, but the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch, and it is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [23] - For PX, the current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to be in a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long following the crude oil price at low levels [25] - For PTA, the supply side has high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber is weakening in the off - season, leading to stock - building during the Spring Festival. The processing fee has increased significantly, with a large expected component. There is a risk of a short - term correction, but there is still room for upward valuation after the Spring Festival, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long [27] - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and imports in February are expected to remain at a high level. The port stock - building cycle will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of high inventory and high operation. The current valuation is moderately high year - on - year, and there is an expectation of valuation compression in the mid - term without further domestic production cuts [30] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 33.90 yuan/barrel, a 7.02% decline, at 449.00 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined, with high - sulfur fuel oil down 202.00 yuan/ton (7.01%) to 2679.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil down 197.00 yuan/ton (5.92%) to 3128.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed mixed inventory changes in refined products, with an overall reduction of 0.93 million barrels in refined oil inventory to 46.83 million barrels, a 1.94% decrease [1] - **Strategy View**: Take profit at high levels in the short term and focus on mid - term layout [2] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices showed different changes, with Jiangsu down 25 yuan/ton, and others having smaller or no changes. The main contract of the futures fell 92.00 yuan/ton to 2252 yuan/ton, and MTO profit increased by 144 yuan [4] - **Strategy View**: The current price has priced in geopolitical premiums, suppressing the downstream, and the negative feedback may continue [5] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in some areas increased by 10 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract fell 3 yuan/ton to 1787 yuan/ton [6] - **Strategy View**: The import window has opened, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, short at high levels [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities declined significantly with large volatility. The short - term market is determined by funds, with low correlation to fundamentals. The long and short sides have different views. The total steel - tire operating load of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.41% as of January 29, 2026, slightly down from last week but up significantly from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire operating load was 75.35%, slightly up from last week and also up significantly from last year. China's natural rubber social inventory increased [10] - **Strategy View**: Conduct short - term trading based on the market, set stop - losses, and restore the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 49 yuan to 5014 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou was 4780 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 234 yuan/ton (up 49 yuan). The 5 - 9 spread was - 117 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan). The overall operating rate was 78.9%, with the calcium - carbide method up and the ethylene method down. Factory inventory decreased, while social inventory increased [13] - **Strategy View**: The industry's fundamentals are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support the price, and attention should be paid to subsequent changes in production capacity and operation [14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene fell, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene rose, while the futures price fell, with the basis strengthening. The upstream operating rate of styrene decreased, and the port inventory increased. The demand - side operating rate of three S products decreased [17] - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. Gradually take profit [18] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price fell 136 yuan/ton to 6878 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 100 yuan/ton to 6850 yuan/ton. The basis was - 28 yuan/ton (strengthened by 36 yuan). The upstream operating rate increased, and production enterprise inventory decreased [20] - **Strategy View**: The crude oil price may have bottomed, and the spot price of polyethylene has fallen. There is still room for downward valuation, but the supply pressure is relieved, and demand is weakening in the off - season [21] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price fell 110 yuan/ton to 6714 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 25 yuan/ton to 6740 yuan/ton. The basis was 26 yuan/ton (strengthened by 85 yuan). The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and inventories at various levels decreased [22] - **Strategy View**: The supply surplus may ease, and there is no new production capacity planned in H1 2026. The overall inventory pressure is high, and in the long term, go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [23] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 238 yuan to 7044 yuan. The CFR price fell 22 dollars to 891 dollars. The load in China and Asia increased. Some devices were restarting. The inventory at the end of December increased [24] - **Strategy View**: The current load is high, and it is expected to be in a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long following the crude oil price at low levels [25] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 178 yuan to 5092 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 185 yuan to 5095 yuan. The basis was - 71 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan). The PTA load remained unchanged, while the downstream load decreased. Social inventory increased, and the processing fee decreased [26] - **Strategy View**: The supply side has high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side is weakening in the off - season, leading to stock - building during the Spring Festival. There is a risk of a short - term correction in the processing fee, but there is still room for upward valuation after the Spring Festival [27] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 146 yuan to 3767 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 113 yuan to 3722 yuan. The basis was - 98 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan). The supply - side load increased, while the downstream load decreased. Port inventory increased [29] - **Strategy View**: The overall load is still high, and imports in February are expected to remain at a high level. The port stock - building cycle will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of high inventory and high operation [30]

【导读】马斯克旗下太空探索技术公司SpaceX正式确认与人工智能初创企业xAI完成合并 美东时间2月2日，当日公布的经济数据较为乐观，美股三大指数低开高走，集体收涨，标普500指数接 近创历史新高。 截至收盘，道指涨1.05%，报49407.66点；纳指涨0.56%，报23592.11点；标普500指数涨0.54%，报 6976.44点。 宏观数据方面，美国1月ISM制造业PMI为52.6，创2022年8月以来新高，明显强于预期的48.5，前值为 47.9。这表明美国制造业出现了实质性扩张迹象。 美联储官员博斯蒂克发声表示，预计2026年不会降息，现在就断言通胀目标已达成还为时过早。需将政 策利率维持在适度紧缩的水平；需要保持耐心，现阶段向任何一个方向调整（政策）都不明智。 此外，投资者正聚焦美股大公司财报。本周将是美股财报季最繁忙的一周，期间会有多项重要经济指标 公布，且包括谷歌母公司Alphabet、亚马逊、超威半导体在内的128家标普500指数成份股公司将陆续发 布财报。 特朗普：莫迪同意不买俄罗斯石油 美国将降低对印关税 据央视新闻，当地时间2月2日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文称， ...

Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds have reduced their holdings in CITIC Resources (01205.HK) by 10,000 shares on February 2, indicating a trend of net selling over recent trading days [1] Group 1: Southbound Fund Activity - In the last 5 trading days, southbound funds have reduced their holdings for 5 days, with a total net reduction of 970,000 shares [1] - Over the past 20 trading days, southbound funds have reduced their holdings for all 20 days, with a cumulative net reduction of 4,130,000 shares [1] - Currently, southbound funds hold 70,968,100 shares of CITIC Resources, accounting for 0.9% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Group 2: Company Overview - CITIC Resources Holdings Limited is primarily engaged in the exploration and sale of natural resources [1] - The company operates through four segments: - The crude oil segment focuses on oilfield operations and crude oil sales in Indonesia and China [1] - The electrolytic aluminum segment operates aluminum smelting plants and sells aluminum ingots in Australia [1] - The coal segment operates coal mines and sells coal in Australia [1] - The import and export segment is involved in the import of other goods and manufactured products [1]

转自：贵州日报 韩国股市2日遭遇重挫，主要股指韩国综合股价指数大幅下跌超5%，触发熔断机制，暂停交易5分钟。 图为2月2日，在韩国首尔，银行工作人员在显示股指信息的屏幕前忙碌。 新华/传真 受美联储货币政策预期转"鹰"、技术性调整压力、贵金属市场震荡外溢效应和市场担忧科技股估值过高 等因素影响，全球市场2日遭遇"黑色星期一"。贵金属市场经历"过山车"行情，原油市场大幅下跌，部 分股市显著下挫甚至触发"临时停牌"。 国际市场贵金属价格2日开盘后大幅跳水。纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格盘中一度跌至每盎司4423.2美 元，较前一交易日收盘价下跌超6%；白银期货价格盘中一度跌至每盎司71.2美元，下跌超9%。现货市 场同样惨淡，伦敦现货黄金价格盘中一度跌至每盎司4402.06美元，跌幅超10%；白银价格盘中一度跌 至每盎司71.312美元，跌幅超16%。此后，金价银价有所反弹。 国际黄金和白银价格近期刷新历史高点后出现剧烈波动。与1月29日创下的历史最高点相比，2日白银价 格盘中低点的累计跌幅已达40%，金价累计跌幅约20%。 彭博社报道，2日的市场表现表明，在贵金属持续上涨和股市屡创新高之后，市场波动性正在加剧。与 ...

2月2日，全球金融市场迎来"黑色星期一"，大宗商品、股票市场同步深度回调，贵金属、能源化工等板 块集体重挫，A股、港股及周边主要股指全线走低。 化工品价格走弱则主要跟随油价波动。格林大华期货化工负责人吴志桥表示，当前化工品交易逻辑并未 发生根本转变，但部分品种短期涨幅过快，提前透支未来需求，且临近春节下游需求将逐步转弱，持续 上涨动力不足，导致价格随油价同步回调。 展望后市，机构对贵金属市场表现出一定信心。摩根大通私人银行亚洲宏观策略主管唐雨旋认为，此次 贵金属价格下跌属于健康的技术性回调，金价仅是回到两周前水平，1月份仍录得13%的涨幅。从持仓 数据来看，新兴市场央行黄金储备占比仍偏低，ETF持仓也低于2022至2023年的高位，长线策略买家为 金价提供了稳固支撑，这也是黄金市场信心强于白银的重要原因。 长江期货研究员汪国栋认为，美国经济数据趋势性走弱，市场对美国财政情况和美联储独立性的担忧仍 存，央行购金和"去美元化"趋势并未改变。同时，在工业需求拉动下，白银现货供应维持紧张局面，中 期来看，黄金、白银价格有望重拾上行态势。 （文章来源：期货日报网） 国际市场，贵金属价格遭遇"断崖式"下跌。纽约商品交易所 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. labor market remains in a weak balance with little change in non-farm employment and a slight decrease in labor force participation to 62.4% [8][14] - Core inflation has cooled, with December CPI at 2.7% year-on-year and core CPI at 2.6%, both meeting market expectations [8][14] - The Federal Reserve's January FOMC meeting provided weak guidance, maintaining the policy rate at 3.5% to 3.75% [14][15] Monetary Policy - Trump's nomination of Waller as Fed Chair may lead to a policy mix of rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, potentially benefiting large banks [15][16] - The Fed's current stance is deemed "restrictive," with future actions likely not to include rate hikes [14][15] Geopolitical Factors - Trump's actions are reshaping global dynamics, with tensions over Greenland revealing divisions within Europe and potential short-term disruptions to oil prices due to actions against Iran [16][17] - Japan's announcement of tax cuts and increased spending ahead of elections has led to a sell-off in Japanese bonds [17] U.S. Equity Market - Focus on earnings guidance is crucial, with major tech companies showing strong results but the Nasdaq index remaining in a consolidation phase [4][23] - Concerns over capital expenditure mismatches with earnings could lead to market volatility, particularly for companies like Microsoft [4][23] Commodity Market - Gold prices are in a primary upward trend but are experiencing increased volatility due to hawkish influences and diverging fund sentiments [5][28] - Oil prices are rebounding due to geopolitical tensions, but a long-term oversupply situation is expected to persist [5][28] Domestic Market - China's GDP growth target for 2025 is set at 5%, with December exports showing strength but investment and retail sales remaining weak [6][31] - The A-share market is experiencing a rebalancing, with traditional value sectors outperforming while tech sectors remain strong [6][37] Financial Data - The gap between M1 and M2 growth rates is narrowing, indicating a potential decrease in market liquidity [34] - New social financing and RMB loans have decreased compared to previous periods, reflecting a tightening in financial conditions [34] Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to enter a consolidation phase, with a focus on sectors like storage chips, AI applications, and commercial aerospace [38] - Infrastructure-related sectors may see opportunities due to upcoming political events, while the Hong Kong market remains cautious [38]