Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the CSI A-shares is 18.7 times, positioned at the historical 70th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.1 times, at the historical 56th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the CSI 500 Index is 27.7 times, at the historical 40th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 30.4 times, at the historical 10th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the CSI 1000 Index is 36.9 times, at the historical 40th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the National 2000 Index is 48.3 times, at the historical 65th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the Sci-Tech 50 Index is 131.8 times, at the historical 97th percentile [3][6] - The PE of the North Exchange 50 Index is 63.9 times, at the historical 92nd percentile [3][6] - The ChiNext Index's PE relative to the CSI 300 is 2.4 times, at the historical 4th percentile [3][6] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense, Aviation, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [3][4] - No industries have PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile [3][4] - Industries with both PE and PB below the historical 15th percentile include Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Medical Services [3][4] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, upstream polysilicon futures prices fell by 12.2%, and spot prices decreased by 0.7% [3][4] - The price of silicon wafers dropped by 2.8%, while battery prices fell by 6.9% [3][4] - Lithium prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium carbonate decreased by 1.0% and 1.1%, respectively [3][4] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 0.6%, while iron ore prices fell by 1.7% [3][4] - National commercial housing sales area decreased by 2.9% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [3][4] - Real estate development investment completed from January to May 2025 fell by 10.7% year-on-year [3][4] Consumption - The average price of live pigs increased by 1.4%, while pork wholesale prices rose by 0.3% [3][4] - The retail sales growth rate from January to May 2025 was 5.0%, with a significant rebound in May [3][4] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment and narrow infrastructure investment grew by 8.5% and 5.6% year-on-year, respectively [3][4] - The output of industrial robots increased by 32.0% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [3][4] Technology TMT - The output of integrated circuits grew by 6.8% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [3][4] - The export value of optical communication modules decreased by 6.9% year-on-year [3][4] Cyclicals - Brent crude oil futures prices rose by 2.9% to $77.32 per barrel [3][4] - The Baltic Dry Index fell by 14.2% [3][4]

下周，全球巨变悄然上演。 当地时间21日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"上发文称，美国已完成对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹 和伊斯法罕三处核设施的袭击。目前特朗普暂无进一步对伊朗采取军事行动的计划。 而就在前几天，《华尔街日报》曾报道"特朗普批准打击伊朗计划，但暂缓执行"，不过，随后被特朗普 19日在社交平台发文驳斥"《华尔街日报》根本不知道我对伊朗的想法"。 然而仅仅几天后，特朗普就对伊朗进行了军事打击。这一军事行动与此前两周的谈判预期形成鲜明对 比，标志着该地区安全和政治格局进入一个不可预测、且更加危险复杂的阶段，世界局势也更加"混 乱"。 对此，伊朗外交部22日发表声明，以最强烈措辞谴责美国对伊朗用于和平目的的核设施进行"野蛮军事 侵略"，表示这一侵略行径"公然且史无前例地违反《联合国宪章》和国际法基本原则"。 声明说，"好战和无法无天的"美国政府应该对"这一重大罪行造成的极其危险后果负全部责任"，再次表 明美国统治集团"根深蒂固的堕落和道德败坏"，以及对伊朗的极端敌意和仇恨。伊朗保留"全力抵抗美 国军事侵略及其流氓政权犯下的罪行、捍卫伊朗安全和国家利益"的权利。 投资者也正密切关注伊朗可能的反击措施，特 ...

Demand - New housing transactions continue to rise, with a week-on-week increase of 10% in the 20 cities monitored, although year-on-year figures show a decline of 16% [12][30] - In first-tier cities, new housing transaction area increased by 3% week-on-week, with Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen seeing increases of 49%, 7%, and 2% respectively, while Shanghai experienced a decline of 19% [12][21] - Second-tier cities saw a week-on-week increase of 13% in new housing transactions, while third-tier cities increased by 12% [12][19] Production - Industrial production remains stable, with the rebar operating rate holding steady at 42.3% and PTA operating rate slightly decreasing by 2.4 percentage points to 80.9% [47][61] - The operating rate for automotive tires has turned positive, supported by the "trade-in" subsidy policy, which is expected to bolster production in the short term [47][61] Investment - Rebar apparent consumption has shown weakness, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% to 2.19 million tons, and rebar prices fell by 0.2% to 3223.6 points [61][61] - Cement prices have decreased by 0.6% to 115.0 points, with a slight decline in cement shipping rates and an increase in cement inventory ratio [61][71] Trade - Port container throughput has decreased by 0.7% week-on-week, while the CCFI composite index rose by 8.0%, with significant increases in freight rates for the US West and European routes [73][81] - The CICFI composite index increased slightly by 0.5%, indicating a rise in import shipping prices [73][81] Prices - Agricultural product prices have shown weakness, with the wholesale price index declining by 0.3%, while pork and egg prices also fell slightly [85][89] - International crude oil prices have surged, with Brent crude rising by 8.9% week-on-week, driven by geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand increases [91][96] Interest Rate Bonds - The upcoming issuance plan for special bonds in July exceeds 500 billion yuan, with a total of 6,956 billion yuan in bonds to be issued next week [104][109] - As of June 20, the cumulative issuance progress for new special bonds stands at 38.4%, with a total of 16,904 billion yuan issued this year [109][113]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性较高，油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治，伊以冲突走向主导油价，短期市场较为担忧战火扩大，极端情况下， | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略：双买期权策略。SC【555-585】 | | LPG | 偏强 | 地缘冲突不确定性上升，油价震荡偏强，液化气短线偏强。成本端油价受 | | | | 地缘冲击，短线走强，并且伊朗 LPG 出口占国内进口比例约三分之一；下 | | | | 游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端利好， | | | | 港口库存连续下降。策略：上行风险较大，波动加剧，双买期权。PG | | | | 【4500-4650】 | | L | 空头反弹 | 装置维持高检修，现货涨势放缓，华北基差为-62（环比-14）。2024 年自 | | | | 伊朗进口 LL、HD、LD 占比分别为 2%、9%、13%，后续进口存缩量预期。 | | | | 下周检修力度增加，预计产量继续下降。近期市场情绪好转，下 ...

Report Core View - On June 19 (Thursday), the WTI July crude oil spot contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was closed due to the Juneteenth holiday. The Brent August crude oil spot contract on the Intercontinental Exchange closed up $2.15 per barrel to $78.85 per barrel, a gain of 2.80% [2] - A source said that US President Trump told his senior aides that he had approved an attack plan on Iran but would not issue a final order for the time being to see if Iran would abandon its nuclear program. The White House said Trump would decide whether to attack Iran within two weeks [3] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report showed that for the week ending June 13, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. US crude oil inventories fell by 11.5 million barrels, the largest decline since the week ending June 28, 2024, compared with a market expectation of a 1.8 million - barrel decrease. US crude oil inventories were 420.9 million barrels, the lowest level since January [4] - In the short - term, the market will still trade on Middle East geopolitical tensions, and oil prices will hover at high levels. Fundamentally, the peak summer driving season is approaching, refinery operating rates in major oil - consuming countries have recovered from maintenance, the China - US economic and trade negotiations in London have made positive progress, the macro - environment is currently loose, OPEC+ has not effectively increased production, and US shale oil production has declined for seven consecutive weeks. In the long - term, due to the increasing supply trend and demand being restricted by the sluggish economic recovery outlook and the substitution of new energy, oil prices will decline from high levels [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 19, equity index futures declined while 30 - Y CGB futures rose; energy & chemical futures increased, while metal futures declined [2][10][12] - The MOFCOM stated that it will continuously accelerate review of rare earths export license applications in accordance with laws and regulations [1][3][35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On June 19, equity index futures declined, 30 - Y CGB futures rose, energy & chemical futures increased, and metal futures declined. The top three gainers were Chinese jujube (up 4.9% with 29.6% month - on - month open interest increase), crude oil (up 4.7% with 8.4% month - on - month open interest increase), and LSFO (up 2.7% with 0.5% month - on - month open interest decrease). The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 4.0% with 0.4% month - on - month open interest decrease), poly - silicon (down 2.5% with 9.3% month - on - month open interest decrease), and silver (down 1.9% with 13.1% month - on - month open interest decrease) [10][11][12] 3.1.2 Daily Rise - Crude Oil - On June 19, crude oil increased by 4.7% to 570.9 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical uncertainties put oil prices in a high - risk phase, expected to be volatile. API data showed a significant draw in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, but gasoline inventories declined more modestly. The IEA monthly report revised down annual demand growth forecast and raised supply expectations. Short - term Middle East geopolitical concerns dominate oil price fluctuations. Attacks on energy infrastructure have occurred but haven't materially affected production or transportation. If geopolitical tensions ease, premiums may decline rapidly, but supply disruption expectations are hard to falsify, leading to more volatile oil prices [15][16][17] 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Copper - On June 19, copper decreased by 0.4% to 78310 yuan/ton. Supply constraints and low inventories support the bottom of copper prices, and it may show high - level volatility in the short term. U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the third consecutive month in May, with overseas economic weakening risks. Copper concentrate and blister copper processing fees are low, and raw material supplies are tight. Domestic and overseas smelters have cut production. As the consumption off - season approaches, downstream replenishment willingness has weakened, and domestic social inventories have started to rebound, limiting price upside. The U.S. may increase copper tariffs, causing the COMEX copper price to rise again [22][23][24] 3.1.3.2 Gold - On June 19, gold decreased by 0.5% to 781.24 yuan/gram. The Fed kept rates unchanged in June, indicating two rate cuts this year. It lowered growth forecasts and raised inflation projections, validating stagflation risks. After the meeting, gold had a slight late - session decline but maintained an overall volatile trend. The Israel - Palestine conflict continues but with no significant intensity escalation, and the safe - haven sentiment driving gold is gradually weakening. Since June, gold's correction magnitude has narrowed, and its price center has moved upward, maintaining a long - term bullish trend, with silver following a relatively strong volatile pattern [29][30][31] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The MOFCOM stated that China is fully prepared for CPTPP accession and will actively align with high - standard international economic and trade rules, steadily expanding institutional opening - up. It also said that it will continuously accelerate the review of rare earths export license applications in accordance with laws and regulations and strengthen communication on export controls with relevant countries [35] 3.2.2 Industry News - As of June 19, the total dividend amount of public funds this year exceeded 107.66 billion yuan, a 47% increase year - on - year. At the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, the HKEX CEO said there are over 160 companies queuing for IPO in Hong Kong, and the mainland and Hong Kong exchanges should develop in a dislocation manner to jointly promote the construction of a multi - level capital market system [36][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for various energy and chemical products, including "oscillating", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating weakly", etc., which can be used as a reference for the investment outlook of individual products [266]. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is in a complex situation. Chemical products generally follow the strong trend of crude oil. The geopolitical risk between Iran and Israel has intensified, leading to increased volatility in crude oil prices, which in turn affects the prices of downstream chemical products [1][2]. - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical sector is a strong - oscillating trend, and a long - short allocation strategy is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On June 19, SC2508 closed at 570.9 yuan/barrel, up 3.29%, and Brent2508 closed at 78.74 dollars/barrel, up 3.5%. - Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East dominate short - term oil price fluctuations. Although there have been attacks on energy infrastructure, there has been no substantial impact on crude oil production. Oil prices are expected to oscillate with high volatility [6]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - The main asphalt futures closed at 3695 yuan/ton. Spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3770 yuan/ton, 3990 yuan/ton, and 3800 yuan/ton respectively. - Due to the escalation of the Iran - Israel geopolitical situation, asphalt prices have a geopolitical premium. However, in the medium - long term, the increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the asphalt cracking spread. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued [7]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3333 yuan/ton. - Geopolitical factors have led to a sharp increase in prices, but in the medium - long term, the increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the cracking spread. Overall, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8][9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3921 yuan/ton. - It follows the trend of crude oil. Currently, it has a low valuation and is facing various negative factors such as weak shipping demand and green energy substitution. It is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 LPG - On June 19, 2025, the PG 2508 contract closed at 4513 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. - Driven by rising crude oil prices, the supply pressure has been relieved, and the chemical demand has recovered. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. 3.1.6 PX - On June 19, the CFR price of PX in Taiwan, China was 904 (16) dollars/ton, and PX 2509 closed at 7094 (106) yuan/ton. - The supply capacity of Asian PX is increasing, and the support from the supply - demand fundamentals in China is weakening. Short - term fluctuations are mainly affected by crude oil. It is expected to be strong in the short term due to production cut news [12]. 3.1.7 PTA - On June 19, the spot price of PTA was 5175 (- 30) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 269 (- 118) yuan/ton. - The supply - demand situation of PTA is weakening at the margin, and it follows the short - term trend of crude oil. It is expected to be strong in the short term following the cost side [12]. 3.1.8 Styrene - On June 19, the spot price of styrene in East China was 8050 (100) yuan/ton. - The future driving force is insufficient. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly [11][12]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - On June 19, the price of ethylene glycol increased, and the basis weakened. - It has a low - inventory pattern and is driven by rising crude oil prices. The weekly operating rate reached a five - year high. It is expected to oscillate strongly [14][15]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - On June 19, the price of polyester short - fiber was 6800 (+ 55) yuan/ton. - The short - fiber industry has a good pattern. The rise in crude oil prices leads to a compensatory increase in the downstream industry chain. The processing fee has limited compression space. It is expected to oscillate strongly [15][16]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - On June 19, the price of polyester bottle chips increased with the rise of raw materials. - The processing fee is in an oscillating pattern. As production cuts are implemented, the processing fee is expected to expand. Long positions in the processing fee can be gradually arranged [17]. 3.1.12 Methanol - On June 19, the low - end spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2750 yuan/ton. - The situation in Iran provides short - term support. The inventory in ports has decreased, and coal prices have stabilized. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [20][21]. 3.1.13 Urea - On June 19, the low - end factory and market prices of urea were 1790 (+ 20) and 1820 (+ 0) respectively. - High supply continues, but the demand at home and abroad has started. The overseas supply is affected by geopolitics, leading to a sharp increase in overseas prices. It is expected to oscillate strongly [21]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - On June 19, the mainstream spot price of LLDPE was 7400 (20) yuan/ton. - Affected by the rise in oil prices, the short - term price has rebounded. However, the fundamentals are still under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. 3.1.15 PP - On June 19, the mainstream transaction price of East China wire drawing was 7250 (30) yuan/ton. - Driven by the rise in oil prices and supported by methanol, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. 3.1.16 PVC - On June 19, the benchmark price of PVC by calcium carbide method in East China was 4840 (+ 0) yuan/ton. - Affected by the rise in energy prices, but the fundamentals are still under pressure. The cost has increased, and it is expected to oscillate [26]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - On June 19, the price of 50% caustic soda in Shandong was 2760 (+ 0) yuan/ton. - The supply and demand are weak in June and July. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price follows the production - cut logic. It is expected to operate weakly [27]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various products such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. It also shows cross - variety spreads and their change values [28]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided in the given text.

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is $3368.90, with a change of -$22.60 [1] - London Silver's latest price is $36.31, with a change of -$0.85 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is $1304.00, with a change of $37.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is $1057.00, with a change of $12.00 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is $9621.50, with a change of -$96.50 [1] - The latest value of the US Dollar Index is 98.78, with a change of -0.11 [1][12] - The latest exchange rate of EUR/USD is 1.15, with a change of 0.00 [1][12] - The latest exchange rate of GBP/USD is 1.35, with a change of 0.00 [1][12] - The latest exchange rate of USD/JPY is 145.46, with a change of 0.34 [1][12] Trading Data - The latest inventory of SHFE Silver is 1242.99, with a change of 13.96 [2] - The latest deferred fee payment direction of SGE Silver is 1, with a change of 0.00 [2] - The latest deferred fee payment direction of SGE Gold is 1, with a change of 0.00 [2]

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 20 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on June 20, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][5][14][22][38][47] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from June 13 - 19, 2025 shows a constant basis of - 192.4 yuan/ton, and 0.0 for 5 - 1/9 - 1/9 - 5 spreads [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Crude oil, fuel oil basis data and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt are presented, with specific values varying from June 13 - 19, 2025. For example, the ratio of crude oil to asphalt on June 19, 2025 was 0.1484 [9] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data for multiple chemicals (e.g., natural rubber, methanol, PTA) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are provided. For instance, the basis of natural rubber on June 19 was - 80 yuan/ton [10] - Inter - period spreads (5 - 1/9 - 1/9 - 5) for various chemicals are given, such as the 5 - 1 spread of natural rubber being 35 yuan/ton [10] - Inter - variety spreads (e.g., LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on June 19 was 2554 yuan/ton [10] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for black metals (e.g., rebar, iron ore, coke, coking coal) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on June 19 was 84.0 yuan/ton [15] - Inter - period spreads for rebar (5 - 1/10 - 1/10 - 5) and other black metals (e.g., 5 - 1/9 - 1/9 - 5 for iron ore) are provided [15] - Inter - variety spreads (e.g., rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on June 19 was 4.28 [15] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for non - ferrous metals (e.g., copper, aluminum, zinc) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of copper on June 19 was 460 yuan/ton [23] - LME related data (LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot, import profit and loss) for non - ferrous metals on June 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the LME premium of copper was 133.36 [30] 3.4.2 London Market - LME basis, Shanghai - London ratio, and import profit and loss data are presented, but specific numerical details are not fully elaborated in the summary [30][32][33] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for agricultural products (e.g., soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 on June 19 was - 153 yuan/ton [40] - Inter - period spreads (5 - 1/9 - 1/9 - 5) for various agricultural products are given, such as the 5 - 1 spread of soybean No.1 being 15 yuan/ton [38] - Inter - variety spreads (e.g., soybean No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the soybean No.1/corn ratio on June 19 was 1.76 [38] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for stock index futures (e.g., CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on June 19 was 2.69 [48] - Inter - period spreads (e.g., next month - current month, current quarter - current month) for various stock index futures are provided [48]