Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a trend of oscillating upward since April 7, indicating a recovery phase, with opportunities emerging in industries that have seen their fundamentals bottom out before the overall economy does [1] Industry Summary - The overall performance of AH shares has been characterized by a gathering of market sentiment amid divergences and a gradual repair of valuations during fluctuations [1] - Industries expected to present more opportunities include innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, AI-related sectors, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials, as they are likely to see their fundamentals improve first [1] - Many industries are experiencing a relief from deflationary pressures, aided by adjustments in upstream prices, technological breakthroughs, and the benefits of engineering talent, leading to a gradual exit from profit troughs for many mid- and downstream sectors [1] - From a medium-term perspective, the A-share market is anticipated to continue following the main theme of Chinese manufacturing [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, policy expectations, and supply - demand relationships across different sectors. Short - term market movements are often influenced by news and events, while long - term trends depend on fundamental factors [2][4]. Summary by Related Categories Stock Index - The index has stable lower support but faces pressure to break through the upper level. Tariff negotiations are ongoing, causing short - term fluctuations due to news. High dividends support the market, resulting in narrow - range oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see for now and try to sell out - of - the - money put options with a strike price of 5800 in July to earn premiums [2]. Treasury Bonds - With loose capital and strong market expectations for the central bank to restart bond purchases, the overall Treasury bond futures are rising, with the short - end being stronger. Attention should be paid to the content of the Lujiazui Forum. If expected policies are implemented, it may drive the curve to steepen bullishly. In the unilateral strategy, Treasury bond futures can be appropriately allocated with long positions on dips [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices may approach the previous high of around $3450 (¥800) if the Israel - Iran conflict escalates again. If the safe - haven sentiment weakens and the price fails to break through the previous high, out - of - the - money call options on gold can be sold at high prices. Silver still has upward potential under inflation expectations influenced by the Middle East situation on energy prices [2]. Shipping Index - The EC2508 main contract of the container shipping index (European line) is oscillating narrowly in the range of 1900 - 2200. Unilateral operations should be on hold for now [2]. Steel - For industrial steel, demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, the decline in hot metal production has narrowed, and the arrival volume has reached a high level. It can be shorted on rebounds, with the upper pressure level around 720. For coking coal, the market auction failure rate has decreased, coal mine production has declined from a high level, and the spot market is weakly stable with improved trading and better expectations. For coke, the third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 6 has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further cuts, with the price approaching the bottom. Arbitrage strategies such as going long on coking coal and short on coke can be considered [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper shows weak momentum and narrow - range oscillations. Zinc's price center has moved down, and inventory depletion provides support. Nickel's sentiment is low, and the price continues to test lower levels, with little change in fundamentals. Stainless steel's price is in a downward trend, and its fundamentals are weak. For tin, attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery rhythm, and a short - selling strategy from high levels can be adopted based on inventory and import data inflection points [2]. Energy and Chemicals - For oil, due to high geopolitical uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and see. WTI's upper resistance has expanded to [73, 74], and Brent's upper - end pressure is in [74, 75], while SC's pressure is in [540, 550]. For urea, there is short - term technical correction pressure, and the upside space needs to be verified by news. For PX, short - term support is strong, and short - long positions can be taken, while considering narrowing the PX - SC spread. For PTA, it is slightly bullish in a narrow - range oscillation, and short - long positions are recommended, along with arbitrage strategies. For PF, short - term processing fees have slightly recovered but with limited momentum. For bottle chips, processing fees may bottom - out and rebound during the peak demand season. For ethylene glycol, the shutdown of Iranian plants has boosted the price, and short - term attention should be paid to the 4450 pressure. For styrene, short - term energy disturbances cause oscillating and repeating movements, and mid - term short - selling opportunities based on raw material resonance should be sought. For caustic soda, the alumina purchase price has continuously declined, and the market is looking for a bottom. For PVC, short - term contradictions are not intensified, and it is in a low - level consolidation phase. For synthetic rubber, it has stopped falling and rebounded due to international geopolitical conflicts. For LLDPE, the spot price has risen slightly with neutral trading. For PP, it is in a weak supply - demand situation and oscillates weakly. For methanol, inventory continues to accumulate, and the basis is stable [2][4]. Agricultural Products - For grains and oilseeds, the new US soybean crop is in good condition, and the market oscillates. For hogs, due to weakening demand in hot weather, the price oscillates slightly. For corn, it lacks the power to continue rising and oscillates at a high level. For palm oil, it is expected to optimistically hit 8500 points in the short term. For sugar, overseas supply is expected to be loose, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended. For cotton, the downstream market is weak, and short - selling on rebounds is advisable. For eggs, the spot market is weak, with a bottom - rebound and then short - selling trend. For apples, trading is weak. For dates, the market price is weakly stable. For peanuts, the market price is high. For soda ash, the oversupply logic persists, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - For glass, the spot market sales have improved, and the short - term market has support. For rubber, the continuous rebound of crude oil has driven up the rubber price. For industrial silicon, the futures are oscillating in a low - level range [2][3]. New Energy - For polysilicon, futures have declined with reduced positions. For lithium, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Stocks**: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious long - position [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term high - level oscillation, cautious observation [3] - **Black Metals**: Short - term low - level oscillation, short - term cautious observation [3] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious observation [3] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term volatility intensifies, cautious long - position [3] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level strong - biased oscillation, cautious long - position [3] 2. Core Views - The global risk preference has cooled overall due to the weakening US economic data and the intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after Israel's attack on Iran. In China, the economic growth is generally stable, but the short - term Middle East geopolitical situation has affected market sentiment [3][4] - Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions based on the current economic and geopolitical situation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Overseas**: US May retail sales were weaker than expected, but consumer spending was supported by steady wage growth. The weakening economic data and geopolitical tensions made investors nervous, the US dollar rebounded after a decline, and the global risk preference cooled [3] - **Domestic**: China's May consumption grew strongly, but investment and industrial production slowed down. The overall economic growth was stable, which helped boost domestic risk preference in the short term, but the Middle East situation dampened it [3][4] - **Assets**: Stocks oscillate in the short term, cautiously long - position; treasury bonds oscillate at a high level, observe cautiously; black metals oscillate at a low level, observe cautiously; non - ferrous metals oscillate, observe cautiously; energy and chemicals have intensified volatility, cautiously long - position; precious metals oscillate strongly at a high level, cautiously long - position [3] Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, game, film and television, and metal new materials, the domestic stock market declined slightly. The economic fundamentals are stable, but the Middle East situation impacts market sentiment. The market focuses on Middle East risks, US trade policies, and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long - position [4] Precious Metals - The gold market oscillated narrowly, and silver rebounded. The Middle East situation is the main influencing factor. If the two sides return to the negotiation table, the gold risk - premium may decline rapidly, and silver will remain in consolidation [5] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures markets were stable, but demand may weaken due to industrial and real - estate pressure. Supply may not decline significantly in the short term. The market will oscillate at the bottom [6][7] - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices declined slightly. Iron - water production may remain high, supply is expected to be high in the second quarter, and the rising coking coal price will suppress the iron - ore price. Short - term interval oscillation [7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices rebounded slightly. The demand for ferroalloys declined. The market rumors were false. Short - term interval oscillation [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Global economic slowdown and high tariffs do not support a sharp rise. Pay attention to US trade policies and tariff decisions [9] - **Aluminum**: The warehouse receipts increased, and the inventory decline slowed down. The demand - boosting policy has uncertainties, and the demand may weaken [9] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, the orders are weak, but the tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. Short - term oscillation, limited upside [9] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, the processing fee is low, and the production resumption may be delayed. In the off - season, the demand is weak, and the inventory increased slightly. Short - term oscillation, upside pressure [10][11] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's remarks increased concerns about supply disruption in the Middle East, although the export facilities are currently unaffected [12] - **Asphalt**: The price followed the oil price to test the previous high. The shipment was stable, the profit recovered, and the inventory decline stagnated. Follow the oil price at a high level [12] - **PX**: The price followed the oil price to rise. The maintenance is concentrated in June - July, and the PTA operation rate increased. It will oscillate strongly [12] - **PTA**: The basis increased, the inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory transfer improved. It will oscillate strongly, pay attention to bottle - chip production cuts [13] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is stable, the downstream inventory decline is limited, and the synthetic - gas production resumed. It will oscillate at the bottom [13] - **Short - fiber**: It oscillated strongly following the polyester sector. The terminal orders recovered slowly, and the inventory accumulated. Follow the oil price [14] - **Methanol**: The domestic price declined slightly, the port basis strengthened. The supply may be affected by the Middle East situation, and the supply is expected to increase. Short - term strong [16] - **PP**: The price adjusted slightly. The production increased, the demand was weak, and the cost supported the price. It may face a callback after a short - term rise [17] - **LLDPE**: The price increased, the import window opened, and the inventory decreased slightly. The production restarted, and the demand was weak. Pay attention to the oil price [18] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The overnight CBOT soybean oil futures fell, triggering profit - taking pressure. The US Senate proposed a $1 - billion tax bill [20] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean market drove the soybean meal futures up, but the domestic supply and demand will be looser. The rapeseed meal demand increase was insufficient [20] - **Oils**: The tension in the Middle East made the palm oil more attractive as a biodiesel raw material, and the palm oil exports increased [20] - **Corn**: The arrival of corn in Shandong was low, and the northeast corn provided support. Import auctions and wheat substitution may cause corn to consolidate at a high level [21] - **Hogs**: The weight reduction of large - scale farms was limited, the spot market was stable, and the demand is expected to improve seasonally [21]

Core Viewpoint - The main contradiction in futures pricing is the basis, which is currently significantly misaligned, indicating that futures are undervalued compared to spot prices [6][12][46]. Group 1: Basis Analysis - The basis is derived from the relationship between futures and spot prices, influenced by supply and demand dynamics reflected in inventory levels [7][8]. - Different commodities have their own basis, and the Wenhua Commodity Index should also have a corresponding basis rate [9][10]. - In June, the Wenhua Index's basis rate reached nearly 4%, suggesting a substantial misalignment where futures are undervalued relative to spot prices [12]. Group 2: Inventory and Profit Dynamics - The direction of inventory changes will determine whether commodities will continue to deplete or not, which is linked to profit margins and operating rates [15]. - The non-ferrous sector shows minor contradictions, while the black and chemical sectors exhibit significant basis discrepancies, with futures prices lagging behind spot prices [17][20][23]. Group 3: Future Basis Reversion - The reversion of the 2509 contract basis will depend on the ongoing contradictions in overseas demand and upstream-downstream profit distribution [26][28]. - If upstream prices stabilize, it could lead to an overall increase in industrial products, causing futures prices to rise faster than spot prices, thus narrowing the basis [42][44]. Group 4: Research and Strategy Development - Understanding the basis is crucial for researchers and traders to differentiate between spot and futures logic, enabling effective arbitrage strategies [49][50]. - The basis serves as a fundamental principle for futures, and its analysis can lead to better insights into market dynamics and trading strategies [52].

Funding Supply - The newly established shares of equity public funds decreased significantly to 1.1 billion yuan, down from 9.5 billion yuan, representing a 29% percentile over the past three years[4] - The net inflow of margin financing increased to 7.9 billion yuan, compared to 6.9 billion yuan, maintaining a 72% percentile over the past three years[4] - The net subscription of stock ETFs was -18.1 billion yuan, marking a low of 6% over the past three years[4] Funding Demand - Equity financing rose to 5.7 billion yuan, reaching a 30% percentile over the past three years[4] - The net outflow of industrial capital increased to 4.6 billion yuan, representing a 56% percentile over the past three years[4] - The net inflow of southbound funds was 14.2 billion yuan, continuing a trend of over 10 billion yuan weekly for four consecutive weeks, with a 69% percentile over the past three years[4] Market Trends - The total market value of restricted shares released was 62.4 billion yuan, significantly up from 28.9 billion yuan, at a 56% percentile over the past three years[4] - The trading heat in the medical services sector rose to a high of 92%, while the military industry saw a significant drop of 14 percentage points to 77%[39][42] - The overall sentiment in ETF funding is at a low point, with a notable outflow indicating bearish market conditions[19]

Market Overview - The overall trend of AH stocks in the past six months can be summarized as "gathering market sentiment amid divergence, with gradual valuation recovery amid fluctuations" [1] - Since the pandemic, the stock market has been in a long-term adjustment due to risk control and the downturn in the real estate cycle [1] - After September 24, there has been a noticeable change in market style, with effective policies boosting confidence and altering the characteristics of a shrinking market [1] Investment Opportunities - The Chinese stock market has a high allocation value globally, with the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 dividend yield remaining above 1.5%, indicating strong appeal for large incremental funds like insurance [1][2] - The continuous decline in bank deposit interest rates is expected to drive savings into the stock market as fixed deposits mature [1] - The return of overseas funds to the Chinese market is evident, with Hong Kong stocks showing significant recovery since the beginning of the year [2] Economic Context - The controllable economic downturn risk suggests that the current dividend yield is unlikely to experience a significant decline [2] - The major reasons for the significant pullback in A-shares since 2021 include economic downturn and deflation expectations, which are less pronounced compared to developed markets [2] - The stabilization of economic expectations is seen as a major positive factor for the stock market [4] Sector Analysis - Assets with strong earnings certainty and high dividend nature are expected to yield absolute returns, attracting low-risk preference funds [3] - Industries that are likely to see opportunities before the economic bottom is confirmed include innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, AI-related sectors, non-bank financials, and more [3] - Many downstream industries are gradually emerging from profit troughs due to price adjustments and technological breakthroughs, despite the year-on-year PPI hitting a new low [3] Conclusion - The risk-reward ratio in the stock market has become particularly evident after years of macro risks, with the current bottom position of the market not requiring a significant economic rebound for valuation recovery [4] - Patience and bottom-up research are essential for achieving favorable results in the current market environment [4]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock index has shown strong performance this year, outperforming major global indices, while the Hang Seng AH Premium Index has been declining, reaching a low of 126.91 points on June 12, the lowest since June 2020 [1][2] - As of June 13, the Hang Seng AH Premium Index reported 128.05 points, indicating an overall decline of over 10% this year [1][2] - There are currently 42 companies with an AH premium rate exceeding 100%, while companies like CATL, WuXi AppTec, and China Merchants Bank have seen their H-share prices exceed A-share prices [1][2] Group 2 - The AH premium index has been rapidly converging since March, moving away from the previous range of 130 to 150 points [2] - The premium rates for sectors such as automotive, non-ferrous metals, media, and electric equipment have reached near ten-year lows, with some industries like machinery and transportation seeing rates below 10% [2] - Several banks have seen their H-shares rise over 20% this year, with significant reductions in AH premiums for banks like CITIC Bank and Agricultural Bank of China [2] Group 3 - Certain companies like WuXi AppTec and China Merchants Bank have exhibited AH discounts, indicating a shift in market pricing logic [3] - The Hong Kong market is influenced heavily by external factors, with significant inflows into the healthcare sector, which has outperformed A-share indices [3] - International investors favor companies with strong financials and stable cash flows, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector [3] Group 4 - Some high-quality companies have shown instances of H-share premiums over A-shares, driven by alignment with macro trends and foreign investment standards [4] - The phenomenon of AH discounts is influenced by trading enthusiasm and technical factors [4] Group 5 - The continuous convergence of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index is attributed to multiple factors [5] Group 6 - The Hong Kong market has outperformed, with the Hang Seng Index up 19.11% as of June 13, significantly better than A-share indices [6] - Southbound capital has net bought HKD 681.327 billion in the Hong Kong market this year, reflecting increased confidence in Chinese assets [6] - The strategic positioning of the Hong Kong market as a platform for RMB internationalization and the return of Chinese concept stocks has attracted both domestic and foreign investments [6]

Group 1 - The report focuses on a theme investment database aimed at identifying high-quality price-volume patterns and monitoring the peak rhythm of popular themes and the adjustment levels of leading stocks [2][9]. - The report highlights two main aspects: 1) Quantitative screening of four types of patterns for high-odds theme opportunities; 2) Construction of trading heat indicators to grasp the peak rhythm of popular themes, with an added observation of leading stock adjustments [2][9]. - In the current period, there are no stocks showing a bottoming pattern, 12 stocks showing a breakout pattern, 8 stocks showing a main rising pattern, and no stocks showing an acceleration pattern. Among the 12 stocks with breakout patterns, 6 are in the computer industry, while 5 of the 8 main rising stocks are in the non-ferrous metals industry [12]. Group 2 - The trading heat for the humanoid robot theme has decreased to 53%, with the closing price of Changsheng Bearing being 11.9% below the MA60. For the Deepseek theme, the trading heat has dropped to 55%, with Daily Interaction's closing price being 11.2% below the MA60 [3][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global risk preference is on the rise due to the positive progress of US trade negotiations, with the US showing good progress in tariff negotiations, such as the potential for an interim trade agreement between India and the US by the end of the month and the near - agreement on steel import tariffs between the US and Mexico. In China, May's export was slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, which boosts domestic risk preference in the short term [3]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a cautious long - position strategy; bonds are at a high level and volatile, suggesting cautious observation; commodities show different trends in sub - sectors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Global and Domestic Market Conditions**: Overseas, US tariff negotiations are going well, which boosts global risk preference. In China, May's export was slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, strengthening the short - term economic pull of net exports and boosting domestic risk preference. The ongoing Sino - US economic and trade consultations may affect the market in the short term, increasing market volatility [3]. - **Asset Performance and Strategies**: Stocks are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a cautious long - position strategy; bonds are at a high level and volatile, suggesting cautious observation; in the commodity sector, black commodities are rebounding from a low level, suggesting cautious observation; non - ferrous metals are oscillating and rebounding, suggesting cautious long - positions; energy and chemical products are oscillating and rebounding, suggesting long - positions; precious metals are at a high level and volatile, suggesting long - positions [3]. Stock Index - **Market Performance**: Domestic stocks continued to decline slightly, dragged down by sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and military industry. - **Fundamentals and Influencing Factors**: China's May export was slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, which helps boost domestic risk preference in the short term. The ongoing Sino - US economic and trade consultations may affect the market in the short term, increasing market volatility. The market's trading logic focuses on US trade policy changes and trade negotiation progress. - **Operation Strategy**: Short - term cautious long - positions [4]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold prices fell slightly, with Shanghai gold dropping to 774 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver remaining at a high level of 8889 yuan. - **Influencing Factors**: Trade improvement boosts risk preference. Investors are waiting for more information on Sino - US consultations and focusing on the upcoming consumer price index data to judge the Fed's policy path. There are stagflation risks, and the Sino - US economic and trade consultation eases the trade situation, but negotiations between the US and other countries are ongoing. - **Operation Strategy**: Silver has a demand for technical breakthrough and catch - up growth, and the gold - silver ratio may be repaired. Gold is expected to remain at a high level and volatile. A callback - buying strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to long - term layout opportunities after a phased callback [5]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices fell slightly as the market awaited the results of Sino - US trade talks. - **Influencing Factors**: The US Commerce Secretary said the talks were fruitful, but no agreement was announced. Some Canadian oil sands production affected by wildfires is resuming, and API data shows concerns about recent demand due to large increases in refined oil inventories despite a slight decrease in crude oil inventories. - **Trend Outlook**: Oil prices will continue to fluctuate in the near future [6][7]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Oil prices fell slightly, and asphalt prices remained at a high level and volatile. - **Influencing Factors**: Demand has recovered to some extent, but the recovery is limited. The basis in major consumption areas has declined significantly, and the market structure has weakened following the spot market. After profit recovery, production has increased, and inventory depletion has stagnated. - **Trend Outlook**: In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [7]. PX - **Market Performance**: PX prices are in a weak and volatile short - term pattern, with the external market price dropping to 817 US dollars and the PXN spread dropping to 257 US dollars. - **Influencing Factors**: PTA's recent increase in production has led to higher future demand for PX, and there are still many domestic maintenance plans from June to July, so the supply is expected to be tight. However, the recent decline in PTA prices has led to a decline in the external PX market. - **Trend Outlook**: It will maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PTA's basis remains high, and the monthly spread has declined slightly. There is a high probability of a slight inventory accumulation pattern starting in June, and after the June contract delivery, the tight supply in the circulation link may ease, and both the structure and price may decline. - **Influencing Factors**: In recent days, the polyester market's logic is mainly related to the cost side, with a high degree of resonance with crude oil and limited self - driving factors. - **Trend Outlook**: It will mainly maintain a weak and volatile pattern [7]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The visible inventory of ethylene glycol remains above 650,000 tons, and inventory depletion is limited. - **Influencing Factors**: There are still many expectations for the return of syngas plants, and the supply side is putting pressure on the market. Downstream production has decreased due to production cuts, and the inventory depletion rate may decrease marginally. - **Trend Outlook**: It may maintain a volatile pattern in the near future [8]. Short - fiber - **Market Performance**: Short - fiber prices are in a weak and volatile pattern. - **Influencing Factors**: The recovery of terminal orders is significantly slower than expected, and short - fiber prices have weakened. Downstream production is expected to decrease in the short term, and short - term orders are still weak, leading to an increase in inventory. - **Trend Outlook**: It will continue to be weak and volatile in the short term [8]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The port methanol market price is oscillating and rising, and the basis has increased. The inland and port inventories are rising simultaneously. - **Influencing Factors**: Due to the "ship age limit" event, the expected import volume is decreasing, and the port inventory accumulation process is expected to slow down. Inland plant production is gradually increasing, and the supply is abundant, while the downstream demand is generally good. - **Trend Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, but the price may decline in the long term [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The domestic PP market is oscillating narrowly, and the futures price has slightly recovered with other energy - chemical products, but the space is limited. - **Influencing Factors**: PP production is increasing both year - on - year and month - on - month, with new production capacity being put into operation. Downstream production has slightly decreased, and inventory has increased significantly after the holiday, with high finished - product inventory, and the fundamentals are deteriorating. - **Trend Outlook**: The price will be under pressure and move downward in the long term [10]. LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The polyethylene market price has been adjusted, with prices rising in different regions. - **Influencing Factors**: The import windows for some LD and HD varieties are open, but there are not many import offers. The proportion of linear film production is the highest, and plant production is gradually resuming, while downstream production has slightly decreased, and inventory has increased to a neutral level. The expected new production capacity is suppressing prices. - **Trend Outlook**: The rebound space is limited, and attention should be paid to medium - and long - term short - selling opportunities [11][12]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: The market is waiting for the results of Sino - US negotiations in London, and copper prices are expected to be volatile in the short term. - **Influencing Factors**: The copper ore supply is relatively tight, the copper concentrate TC has slightly increased, and the port inventory of copper concentrate is at a high level. Electrolytic copper production is at a high level, and there is no strong motivation for production cuts. The peak demand season is approaching its end, and there are risks of a marginal decline in demand. - **Trend Outlook**: It will be volatile in the short term [13]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum ingot inventories have continued to decline significantly, but the market's expectations are weak. - **Influencing Factors**: The subsidy funds for home appliances in Zhengzhou have been used up, and the demand side may weaken marginally under the high - supply background, and inventory depletion may slow down or even turn into inventory accumulation. - **Trend Outlook**: No clear short - term trend is mentioned, but there are concerns about future inventory changes [13]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices have rebounded, and there is potential for further short - term price repair. - **Influencing Factors**: The domestic tin ore supply is tight, processing fees have decreased, and the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has declined. The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State may be delayed, and Thailand has suspended tin ore transportation from Myanmar. The demand side has mixed trends, with some products maintaining high growth and others weakening, and it is entering the seasonal off - season. - **Trend Outlook**: The price may continue to repair in the short term, but the upside space is limited due to high - tariff risks, resumption of production expectations, and marginal demand decline [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT 11 - month soybean contract closed at 1031.25, up 0.50 or 0.05%. - **Influencing Factors**: The weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas are good, the sowing progress is fast, and the production situation is stable for now. In South America, Brazil's soybean premium is still strong, and Argentina's soybean harvest is 91%, with the production volume adjusted down to 48.5 million tons. The USDA's June supply - demand report may have a neutral impact on the market, and the focus is on the end - of - month US soybean planting area forecast report. - **Trend Outlook**: The market expects an increase in US soybean planting area compared to previous expectations [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Performance**: The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate increased by 1.49% to 65.03% compared to the previous day. - **Influencing Factors**: The soybean meal basis is low, and inventory repair is ongoing. The lack of upward momentum in US soybeans also means that soybean meal lacks stable upward support. For rapeseed meal, the inventory depletion in ports is slow, the Sino - Canadian trade relationship is expected to improve, and downstream demand is cautious due to the higher cost - performance of soybean meal. - **Trend Outlook**: No clear short - term trend is mentioned [16]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The short - term port inventory pressure is not large, and the price is stable. - **Influencing Factors**: The price difference between Shandong and North Ports/South Ports and North Ports is high, and the North Port's shipping volume is large, with rapid inventory depletion. The inventory of North China's deep - processing enterprises is at the end - of - year level, and the replenishment demand is strong. The proportion of wheat used for feed is increasing in most regions except for wheat - producing and consuming areas. - **Trend Outlook**: In the medium term, if the price difference between Brazilian and domestic corn narrows as expected, the price of old - crop corn is likely to rise [17]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: In May, Malaysia's palm oil production, import, export, and ending inventory all increased. In June, Malaysia's palm oil exports continued to improve, and the price remained stable within a certain range. - **Influencing Factors**: The improvement in exports and the strength of external crude oil and oils support palm oil prices. - **Trend Outlook**: It will remain stable within a certain range [18]. Pork - **Market Performance**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the slaughter volume decreased, but the order volume has increased recently. The spot price has stabilized after a decline. - **Influencing Factors**: Consumption is weak in summer, and the supply is increasing as large - scale farms plan to increase the slaughter volume in June, and the average slaughter weight is decreasing. The "reserve purchase" information has boosted the farmers' reluctance to sell, and the second - fattening enthusiasm has increased, which has helped stabilize the spot price. - **Trend Outlook**: The futures and spot markets are under pressure in the short term, but the spot price has shown signs of stabilization [18].

Report Title - The report is titled "Commodities Rise More Than Fall, Aluminum Alloy and Silver Perform Strongly — CITIC Futures Morning Report 20250611" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - Overseas macro: Trump's tariff policies have negatively impacted US imports and factory orders. The US economy shows signs of weakness, but the May non - farm payrolls and wage data have boosted market confidence. It is expected that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25% - 4.50% range in June [7] - Domestic macro: Policies remain stable, and short - term focus is on using existing resources. Manufacturing profits are resilient, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "re - export rush" and the July Politburo meeting [7] - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structured market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Bonds are worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities are range - bound in the short term, and low - valuation and policy - driven opportunities should be noted [7] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Essentials - Overseas: The negative impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders is emerging. The May ISM manufacturing and service PMIs are below expectations. The April trade deficit decreased, and factory orders declined more than expected. The latest economic data is mixed, and the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged in June [7] - Domestic: Policies maintain stability, and short - term focus is on using existing resources. Manufacturing profits are resilient, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "re - export rush" and the July Politburo meeting [7] - Asset views: Overseas, there is more hedging and volatility; in China, it is a structured market. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and bonds are worth allocating after capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities are range - bound, and low - valuation and policy - driven opportunities should be noted [7] 2. View Highlights Macro - Overseas: The stagflation trade is cooling, with a flattened inflation expectation structure and improved economic growth expectations [8] - Domestic: There may be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and short - term fiscal policies are being implemented [8] Financial - Stocks: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude due to the un - released micro - cap risks [8] - Bonds: The short - end may be relatively strong [8] Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Short - term adjustment continues due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations [8] Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation [8] Black Building Materials - Steel: The fundamentals have limited contradictions, mainly driven by raw materials [8] - Iron ore: Overseas shipments are increasing, and port inventories are stable [8] - Coke: Three rounds of price cuts have been implemented, and the bearish expectation remains [8] - Coking coal: Market transactions are light, and upstream inventories are high [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The price is high due to a weak US dollar [8] - Aluminum: The price is high due to Trump's steel and aluminum tariff policies [8] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure continues, and the market is affected by macro and geopolitical factors [10] - LPG: The rebound space may be limited due to weak demand [10] - Asphalt: The futures price is falling [10] Agriculture - Livestock: The market sentiment is boosted by pork purchases [10] - Cotton: The fundamentals change little, and the macro - environment is positive [10]