Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that market sentiment remains highly volatile, with a short-term shift from bullish to bearish [1][2] - The market sentiment structure indicator reached a low of -0.85 on January 13, 2023, and has since recovered, peaking at 2.2 as of March 21, 2025, signaling a bearish outlook for the upcoming week [2][3] - Despite a generally optimistic view on A-shares, there is an increasing emphasis on defensive attributes as the market shows signs of weakness [3][4] Group 2 - The analysis of various sector indicators shows that the public utilities sector continues to signal bullish trends, while sectors like oil and petrochemicals, transportation, and coal are also showing positive short-term signals [5][6] - The technology and media sectors have experienced significant pullbacks, leading to a bearish outlook in the short term [5][6] - The relative strength index (RSI) analysis indicates that the overall market sentiment is shifting towards value styles, with a stronger certainty in the short-term transition to value [6][7]

过去一段时间，港股市场这种剧烈的上下起伏已经不是第一次出现。2月底以来，虽然市场多次由短期情绪和资金涌入催化快 速上冲，但始终无法"有效突破"我们早前给出的点位。我们在2月16日与2月24日连续发布《 中国资产的重估？ 》与《 再论中 国资产的重估前景 》两篇专题报告， 测算恒指中枢23,000-24,000点，乐观情形25,000点，建议在这一区间附近观望不必追 高，如果不选择获利可以适度调仓至红利。 回过头来看，这一观点是有效的。实际上，尽管活跃的市场给人一种持续火热的感觉， 但如果投资者是选择从2月底以来加仓 龙头个股或者恒指与恒生科技的话，过去一个月大概率持平甚至是亏损的。 那么，走到这一步，中国资产的重估到哪里了？ 接下来走向如何，该如何配置？有哪些节点需要重点关注？ 一、重估到哪一步了？叙事驱动的极致"结构市"，当前估值相对合理 图表：上周MSCI中国指数下跌1.7%，电信服务与房地产领跌，而公用事业与能源逆势上涨 点击小程序查看报告原文 资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部 过去一周港股市场大幅波动，周初恒指一度逼近我们给出的乐观情形25,000点，随即再度大幅回撤，恒生科技周四周五连续两 ...

李翀｜中信证券海外研究联席首席分析师 S1010522100001 海外研究｜美联储"Wait for greater clarity"：美联储2025年3月议息会议点评 美联储2025年3月议息会议维持政策利率不变，符合市场预期。本次点阵图显示今年目标利率中枢为3.9%，与2024年 12月会议点阵图持平，同时上调今年通胀预测和失业率预测、下调经济增速预测。"Wait for greater clarity"成为美 联储的新口号，"通胀暂时论"重出江湖，鲍威尔依旧认为长期通胀预期"well anchored"。当前"transitory inflation+ weaker growth+ high uncertainty"的组合对应点阵图显示的年内2次降息，我们认为三者中任何一者朝着美联储预期 的反向变化理论上都会导致降息次数削减。我们预计美联储年内降息次数小于或等于2次。市场方面，美联储此次议 息会议起到了"Fed Put"的作用，我们预计短期内市场情绪得到提振，美股市场有所反弹，但需警惕特朗普关税政策 再出变数。 风险因素：美国通胀超预期反弹；美国金融系统脆弱性超预期；美国劳动力市场超预期走弱；特朗普关 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.10% on March 19, with 9 out of the 28 sectors rising, led by the banking and public utilities sectors, which increased by 1.42% and 1.28% respectively [1] - The automotive sector ranked third in terms of gains for the day [1] - A total of 26 sectors experienced net outflows of capital, with the electronics sector seeing the largest outflow of 122.02 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow for the day was 487.64 billion yuan across the two markets, with only 5 sectors experiencing net inflows [1] - The public utilities sector had the highest net inflow of 17.08 billion yuan, while the banking sector followed with a net inflow of 7.84 billion yuan [1] Automotive Sector Performance - The automotive sector rose by 0.67% with a net inflow of 3.38 billion yuan, comprising 271 stocks, of which 129 rose and 129 fell [2] - Among the stocks in the automotive sector, 114 saw net inflows, with 9 stocks having inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, led by BYD with an inflow of 5.61 billion yuan [2] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Southern Precision, Weichai Power, and Changan Automobile, with outflows of 3.29 billion yuan, 1.79 billion yuan, and 1.53 billion yuan respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the power and utilities sector, with specific recommendations for various companies based on their performance and market conditions [3][20][21]. Core Insights - The power sector outperformed the broader market, with the public utility sector index rising by 2.19% and the electricity sub-sector by 2.21% during the week ending March 14, 2025 [1][7]. - Significant investments are being made in renewable energy projects, particularly in the "Shagou Desert" area, with major state-owned enterprises planning substantial capacity expansions [2][23]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of the electricity spot market construction and the establishment of a unified national electricity market system [2][28]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The public utility sector index closed at 2287.91 points, up 49.11 points, while the electricity sub-sector closed at 3042.41 points, up 65.87 points, indicating strong performance compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 1.59% [1][7]. - Among the electricity sub-sectors, photovoltaic power generation saw a rise of 4.68%, followed by thermal services at 3.80%, and comprehensive energy services at 3.57% [14][19]. Investment Recommendations - For thermal power, the report recommends companies like Sheneng Co. and Funeng Co., while cautiously recommending Waneng Power and Huadian International [3][19]. - In the green energy sector, it suggests investing in Three Gorges Energy and keeping an eye on new energy companies like Xintian Green Energy [3][19]. - The report highlights the stable performance of large hydropower companies, recommending Changjiang Electric Power, and notes the growth potential in nuclear power with a recommendation for China Nuclear Power [3][19]. Industry Developments - The report discusses the ongoing construction of the "Shagou Desert" renewable energy base and the promotion of cross-regional energy dispatch projects to enhance energy supply security [2][22]. - It notes that Xinjiang's electricity export volume reached 126.4 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, marking a continuous increase over five years [2][23]. - The establishment of a national carbon market and the first cross-regional green electricity transaction are highlighted as significant steps towards market integration [28][29].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the dividend sector in A-shares has experienced continuous adjustments, with the CSI Dividend Index declining by 2.5% year-to-date, while the overall dividend yield has increased from 5.04% to 6.30% [3] - The report highlights a significant internal structural differentiation within the dividend sector, with certain industries like banks, liquor, and dairy seeing valuation increases, while others like coal and education have seen valuation declines, thus improving their cost-effectiveness [3] - The report suggests that the core logic of dividends remains solid, and after adjustments, the sector has returned to a favorable allocation range, with limited upward space for risk-free interest rates anticipated [3][4] A-Share Strategy - The report notes that the dividend premium of A-shares compared to H-shares has narrowed significantly, with the A-share dividend premium dropping from 54% at the beginning of the year to 44% by March 13, and the market capitalization-weighted premium falling from 48% to 33% [3] - The report emphasizes the potential for increased long-term capital inflow into the dividend sector, with insurance funds approved for long-term stock investments totaling 162 billion yuan [3][8] - A list of 20 selected A-share dividend stocks is provided, highlighting their market capitalization, historical dividend yield, and expected dividend yield [10] H-Share Strategy - The report includes a list of 20 selected H-share dividend stocks, detailing their market capitalization, price-to-earnings ratio, and dividend yield, indicating a comparative analysis with A-shares [11] - The report notes that the dividend yields of H-shares are generally competitive, with some stocks showing significant discounts compared to their A-share counterparts [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but it follows a relative rating system based on performance against the CSI 300 index [6]. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has been experiencing a continuous pullback since February, leading to weakened trading sentiment. Institutions with liquidity needs and sensitivity to net value are advised to adopt a cautious approach and selectively allocate investments [4]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted post the Two Sessions, causing potential adjustments in the long-end of the bond market [4]. - The report emphasizes a focus on ultra-long credit bonds and provides a market outlook [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4%, with the CSI 300 also down by 0.4%. The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.2%, while the Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.6% [3]. - The best-performing sectors included coal (+4.2%), beauty and personal care (+1.6%), steel (+1.2%), utilities (+0.9%), and oil and petrochemicals (+0.8%). Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were machinery (-2.6%), electronics (-2.4%), computers (-2.1%), automobiles (-1.9%), and media (-1.8%) [2][3]. Important Insights - The report discusses the ultra-long credit bonds market, indicating that the peak is approaching and suggesting a selective allocation strategy [4]. - The market's delayed pricing of interest rate cuts may lead to further adjustments in the long-end of the bond market [4]. - The report highlights the impact of a strong equity market on the bond market, suggesting a need for cautious positioning [4].

2025 年 3 月 13 日 星期四 每日大市点评 3 月 12 日，港股大盘无法承接周二强势，昨日先冲高后回落，恒生指数最终下跌 181 点或 0.8%，收报 23,600 点。恒生科 指下跌 2.0%，收报 5,845 点。大市成交金额有 2,785 多亿港元，港股通大幅流入超过 262 亿港元。虽然港股通持续南下 撑市，但港股的升势似乎有所放缓，整体运行节奏也改变，从 1 月以来的单边上升转化为多空震荡。无论从预测 PE、风 险溢价、股息率及 AH 溢价指数都反映港股的第一波估值基本修复到位，当前进入经济数据及业绩的发布期，市场焦点都 会逐渐回到基本面，港股整体估值进一步上修需要基本面和盈利面的配合。另外，连日大跌的美股或到达反弹阶段，不 排除有部分资金或回流美股。昨日恒生香港中资企业指数(红筹股)仅下跌 0.3%，说明资金开始转向防御性或落后股份。 盘面上看，券商、黄金相关、材料、通讯设备、公用事业、基建、部分汽车及智能驾驶概念股表现较好，而消费、医 疗、地产及科技等顺周期都有较大跌幅。近期显著上升的消费类半新股大多出现大成交冲高回落，如布鲁可(325 HK)、 毛戈平(1318 HK)及蜜雪(20 ...

Group 1 - The overall profitability of the A-share market is weak, with cumulative net profit for non-financial companies down by 3.7% year-on-year, while operating revenue increased by 3.8% [6][15][12] - As of March 8, 2024, 1,066 listed companies have disclosed their performance reports, with 47% having previously issued earnings forecasts [6][12] - The performance of the CSI 500 index is superior, with a net profit growth of 8.7%, outperforming small-cap indices [15][16] Group 2 - The pharmaceutical and non-bank financial sectors are leading, with continuous acceleration in year-on-year growth [23][24] - In the upstream raw materials sector, oil, petrochemicals, and coal show strong performance, while non-ferrous metals experienced a slight decline in Q3 2024 but showed signs of recovery in Q4 2024 [23][24] - The TMT sector, particularly the electronics industry, continues to thrive due to AI-driven demand, with revenue and performance showing positive growth for four consecutive quarters [27][28] Group 3 - The banking and non-bank financial sectors have a high proportion of companies with both revenue and performance growth, indicating a favorable economic environment [36][39] - In the midstream manufacturing sector, all five industries reported negative net profit growth, with only basic chemicals and defense industries showing slight recovery [28][29] - The consumer goods sector, particularly pharmaceuticals and food and beverage, has shown significant growth, while textiles and retail remain weak [28][29] Group 4 - The expected net profit growth for the entire A-share market in 2025 is projected to be around 1.5%, with non-financial companies expected to see a 5% increase [23][24] - The performance of the component and aerospace equipment industries remains high, with significant improvements noted in the battery and military electronics sectors [42][46] - The overall performance of the main board and growth enterprise board is significantly better than that of the sci-tech innovation board and the northern stock exchange [15][16]

注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 融资融券 截至3月10日，市场最新融资余额为19089.71亿元，较上个交易日环比增加97.13亿元，分行业统计，申 万所属一级行业有27个行业融资余额增加，电子行业融资余额增加最多，较上一日增加21.61亿元；融 资余额增加居前的行业还有机械设备、有色金属、电力设备等，融资余额分别增加14.86亿元、10.63亿 元、10.50亿元；融资余额减少的行业有4个，通信、计算机、公用事业等行业融资余额减少较多，分别 减少1.69亿元、1.23亿元、5202.32万元。 以幅度进行统计，社会服务行业融资余额增幅最高，最新融资余额为90.32亿元，环比增长1.68%，其次 是机械设备、有色金属、银行行业，环比增幅分别为1.53%、1.36%、1.12%；融资余额环比降幅居前的 行业有美容护理、通信、公用事业等，最新融资余额分别有60.06亿元、702.85亿元、445.17亿元，分别 下降0.25%、0.24%、0.12%。（数据宝） 3月10日各行业融资余额环比变动 融资融券、杠杆资金 ...