| | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-09-02 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 273980 | 740 10月-11月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -200 | 20 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 35060 | 110 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 34947 | -1036 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -2097 | 729 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 2155 | 145 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 7566 | 75 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | ...

FICC日报 | 2025-09-02 美联储降息预期升温，关注贵金属 市场分析 8月海外通胀上升迹象初显。全球7月的经济数据仍有韧性：中国7月官方制造业PMI回落至49.3，非制造业保持扩 张；中国7月按美元计出口同比增长7.2%，高于预期，主要受去年低基数和"抢出口"效应支撑；金融数据中，货币 供给超预期，但融资和贷款数据仍弱；经济数据中，投资数据仍有明显压力，国内月频经济数据仍有压力。国务 院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势，培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资。 中共中央、国务院印发关于推动城市高质量发展的意见。意见提出，发展组团式、网络化的现代化城市群和都市 圈，持续推动城镇老旧小区改造。商务部宣布，将于9月出台扩大服务消费的若干政策措施。中国8月官方制造业 PMI小幅回升至49.4，新订单指数升至49.5，非制造业加速扩张。9月1日，"上海合作组织＋"会议在天津梅江会展 中心举行。A股全天震荡分化，沪指窄幅盘整，创业板午后涨2%。算力硬件股再度爆发，CPO等方向领涨。黄金 股大涨，医药股强势反弹，芯片半导体股继续活跃。国债反弹，黑色系商品下跌。股指的IC和IM期货基差有所走 ...

鹏华中证A股资源产业指数(LOF)A（160620）成立日期2021年1月1日，最新规模1.15亿。今年以来收益 27.4%，同类排名1632/4222；近一年收益38.16%，同类排名2396/3781；成立以来收益70.23%。 鹏华中证A股资源产业指数(LOF)A（160620）基金经理为闫冬。 截至发稿，闫冬累计任职时间6年170天，现任基金资产总规模41.5亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 97.29%， 任职期间最差基金回报-35.66%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 9月2日，江西铜业涨0.14%，截至发稿，报29.00元/股，成交25.83亿元，换手率4.27%，总市值1004.19 亿元。江西铜业股价已经连续3天上涨，区间累计涨幅11.2%。 资料显示，江西铜业股份有限公司位于江西省南昌市高新开发区昌东大道7666号，成立日期1997年1月 24日，上市日期2002年1月11日，公司主营业务涉及铜和黄金的采选、冶炼与加工;稀散金属的提取与加 ...

（责任编辑：康博） 中国经济网北京9月2日讯 白银有色(SH:601212)今日股价涨停，截至收盘报4.26元，涨幅10.08%， 总市值315.44亿元。该股此前1个交易日涨停。 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Brent crude's November contract rose 1.04% overnight. Mid - term supply - demand is loose, but short - term net long positions of funds are low, making oil prices sensitive to geopolitical positives. Consider shorting SC's November contract on rallies and use out - of - the - money call options for protection [1] Precious Metals - Rising Fed rate - cut expectations and concerns about Fed independence boost precious metals. International gold prices may hit new highs. Hold long positions and focus on US non - farm payrolls data on Friday [2] Copper - Overnight, copper prices oscillated and closed lower. The probability of short - term copper prices breaking through the 80,000 - yuan mark and expanding the upward trend is increasing. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA5 moving average and pay attention to the rise in the premium of the 2510 contract's call option with a strike price of 82,000 yuan [3] Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated. Downstream开工率 has been rising seasonally for four weeks, and inventory is likely to be low this year. However, the inventory of aluminum ingots and bars increased slightly at the beginning of the week. The short - term trend is oscillatory, with resistance at the 21,000 - yuan area [4] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum. The spot - to - Shanghai aluminum cross - variety spread may narrow further due to tight scrap aluminum supply and expected tax policy adjustments [5] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, with rising inventory and warehouse receipts. Supply surplus is emerging, and the northwest tender price has dropped significantly. It is in a weak trend but may not fall deeply after breaking through the cost of high - cost production capacity. Pay attention to the support at the June low of 2830 yuan to the 3000 - yuan mark [6] Zinc - SMM's zinc social inventory rose to 146,300 tons, pressuring zinc prices. In September, smelter maintenance will increase, and zinc output is expected to decrease. LME zinc inventory is low, and there is strong support at the 22,000 - yuan mark. It is expected to oscillate in the "Golden September and Silver October" season. Consider shorting on rebounds in the medium - term at the 23,000 - 23,500 - yuan range [7] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded sharply. Concerns about political unrest in Indonesia may push up the price of the nickel industry chain. Short - term trading should be oscillatory, suspending the short - selling strategy [9] Tin - After strong two - way fluctuations, tin prices closed with a positive line overnight. LME Singapore warehouse inventory increased. There is a shortage of concentrate in the domestic tin market. Hold short - term long positions based on the 271,000 - yuan level and avoid chasing the rise [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures oscillated weakly. Total market inventory decreased slightly to 141,000 tons. The market is focused on the 930 - term expectation. Adopt a bullish strategy with risk control [11] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures rose slightly, driven by polysilicon sentiment. In September, supply surplus is expected to intensify. Temporarily observe the support at 8300 yuan/ton. If it breaks, consider short - selling lightly [12] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rose significantly due to a leading company's "industry restructuring plan" and the "self - discipline production limit" in September. The policy's short - term implementation needs verification. Pay attention to the resistance at 53,000 yuan/ton and control positions [13] Group 2: Steel and Iron Ore Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night - session steel prices continued to decline slightly. Rebar's apparent demand improved, but inventory accumulated. Hot - rolled coil's demand and output declined, and inventory also increased. The market is under short - term pressure, and pay attention to the improvement in building material demand [14] Iron Ore - Iron ore's overnight futures oscillated. Global shipments reached a new high this year, and domestic arrivals rebounded. Iron - water production may decline significantly this week. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [15] Coke - Coke prices rebounded at the end of the session. The first round of price cuts was partially implemented. Inventory decreased slightly, and the market is affected by the "anti - involution" policy. Prices are under short - term pressure [16] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices mainly declined during the session and rebounded at the end. Total inventory decreased, and production - end inventory increased. It is affected by the "anti - involution" policy, and prices are under short - term pressure [17] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices oscillated downwards and rebounded at the end. Demand is good, and manganese ore prices have limited downside. Observe the support at the previous low [18] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated downwards and rebounded at the end. Demand is okay, and supply has increased significantly, with inventory slightly decreasing [19] Group 3: Shipping and Energy - Related Products Container Freight Index (European Line) - Spot market freight rates are in a downward channel. The impact of geopolitical events on the market is short - term. The market is under pressure. Pay attention to airlines' empty - sailing plans for the National Day Golden Week. If the scale is smaller than last year, the market may decline further [20] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - As of the end of July, Singapore and China's bunker fuel sales decreased year - on - year, and domestic refinery production enthusiasm was low. LU is under pressure, while FU is relatively stronger due to geopolitical premiums [21] Asphalt - Factory and social inventories of asphalt continued to decline. Asphalt futures rose against the trend. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Consider a spread strategy of going long on the crack spread between BU and SC10 [22] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - September's CP was stable. After the gas off - season, it showed some resilience. Import costs and domestic demand rebounded, supporting the spot price. The short - term futures market is stronger in the near - term and weaker in the far - term [23] Group 4: Chemical Products Urea - Urea's daily output decreased slightly but remained high year - on - year. Some compound fertilizer enterprises limited production, and agricultural fertilizer preparation was slow. Inventory at production enterprises increased. During India's tender period, the market sentiment may change [24] Methanol - Methanol's autumn maintenance is ending, and domestic supply is increasing, with production enterprises accumulating inventory. However, downstream demand is expected to improve due to better economics and pre - holiday stocking, so the market outlook is positive [25] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices continued to be weak, breaking through 6000 yuan/ton at night. Supply increased, demand was weak, and the port inventory increased slightly. There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the third quarter, but pay attention to the downstream rhythm [26] Styrene - Styrene's trend is weak. Crude oil may fluctuate widely, and pure benzene may be weak, providing no support. Demand is weak, supply is high, and inventory has increased significantly, resulting in a weak fundamental situation [27] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Propylene production enterprises have controllable inventory pressure, but downstream acceptance of price increases is limited. Ethylene's downstream demand is mixed, and polypropylene's supply pressure is increasing, with weak downstream orders [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is weak due to high supply and low demand. Caustic soda is relatively strong, but the profit is good, so future supply may increase. PVC is expected to oscillate weakly, and caustic soda may oscillate widely [29] PX and PTA - Night - session PX drove PTA to rise first and then fall, oscillating. Terminal demand is improving, but the actual supply - demand improvement is limited. Pay attention to device dynamics, oil prices, and polyester's production increase [30] Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol's night - session price dropped to the 4400 - yuan mark. Domestic production increased, and port inventory rose slightly. It is expected to oscillate within a range. Pay attention to policies and the peak - season demand [31] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber's supply - demand is stable, and its price follows the cost. New capacity this year is limited, and the peak - season demand may boost the market. Bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity issues. Pay attention to petrochemical policies [32] Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - Last night, soybean meal futures increased in position and oscillated upwards. Globally, the "crushing for oil" pattern is emerging. Domestically, import costs limit the decline of soybean meal. Supply is sufficient in the fourth quarter but may be short in the first quarter of next year. The market may oscillate in the short - term and is cautiously bullish in the long - term [36] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Overnight, soybean oil and palm oil rebounded. Short - term price declines released negative factors, and concerns about supply in Indonesia exist. Domestic soybean supply is loose in the near - term and uncertain in the far - term. Palm oil may enter a production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. Consider buying on dips in the long - term [37] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures market was closed. Global rapeseed supply will be seasonally loose. China's rapeseed supply - demand is expected to be in a tight - balance state. Rapeseed futures may stabilize in the short - term [38] Soybean No. 1 - After recent price declines, the price of domestic soybean futures rebounded as short - sellers reduced positions. Policy - driven auctions increased supply. New soybeans are expected to have a good harvest. Pay attention to the new - season opening price [39] Corn - Dalian corn futures rose last night. New - season corn may have a good harvest. Short - term, the market may oscillate stably. After the new - grain purchase enthusiasm fades, it may decline at the bottom [40] Live Pigs - Live - pig futures opened high and closed low on Monday. The pig - grain ratio is below 6:1. Supply is expected to increase in September, but demand may also rise during holidays. The price is under downward pressure. Pay attention to policies and supply release [41] Eggs - Egg futures increased in position on Monday. Spot prices did not rise strongly in the autumn semester. Old - hen culling increased, and chick replenishment was low in August. Consider long positions in far - month contracts next year and pay attention to short - sellers' exit in near - month contracts [42] Cotton - US cotton oscillated weakly last week. US cotton signing data improved. China - US negotiations are ongoing. Brazilian cotton's harvest is slow but the yield is expected to be good. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate, with strong support below. Buy on dips [43] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. Brazilian sugar production may remain high. In China, domestic sugar sales are fast, and inventory pressure is low. The 25/26 sugar - cane production in Guangxi is uncertain. Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [44] Apples - Apple futures oscillated at a high level. Early - maturing apples have high prices, but the supply in the 25/26 season may not change much. The price may rise in the short - term but lacks long - term bullish factors. Temporarily observe [45] Wood - Wood futures oscillated. Foreign prices rose, but domestic prices increased slightly. Imports may remain low, and inventory pressure is small. The supply - demand situation improved, but peak - season demand has not started. Temporarily observe [46] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly yesterday. Port inventory declined slightly, but it is still high year - on - year. Supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. Temporarily observe or trade within a range [47] Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - The stock market oscillated strongly yesterday, with the ChiNext Index performing well. Futures contracts of stock indices rose. Shanghai's mortgage policy was adjusted. The market has an optimistic expectation of factors such as Fed rate cuts. Increase allocation to the technology - growth sector and also pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [48] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The "stock - bond seesaw" effect is weakening. In September, domestic monetary policy may be loosened. The yield curve is expected to steepen [49]

FICC日报 | 2025-09-02 阅兵在即，股指偏强运行 市场分析 欧元区景气度回升。国内方面，国家主席习近平主持上海合作组织成员国元首理事会第二十五次会议并发表重要 讲话。成员国领导人签署并发表《上海合作组织成员国元首理事会天津宣言》，批准《上合组织未来10年（2026－ 2035年）发展战略》，发表关于第二次世界大战胜利和联合国成立80周年的声明、关于支持多边贸易体制的声明， 通过加强安全、经济、人文合作和组织建设等24份成果文件。海外方面，欧元区8月制造业PMI终值从7月份的49.8 升至50.7的三年多高点，高于初值50.5，自2022年中期以来首次扩张，工厂产量、新订单增速达到近三年半以来的 最快。 沪指走势偏强。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收红，沪指涨0.46%收于3875.53点，创业板指涨2.29%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，通信、有色金属、医药生物、电子行业涨幅居前，非银金融、银行、家用电器行业跌幅居前。 当日沪深两市成交金额为2.75万亿元。海外方面，美股因劳动节假期休市。 IM贴水深。期货市场，基差方面，股指期货贴水程度快速加深，IC、IM基差处于历史较低水平。成交持仓方面， 股 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Bullish in the short - term, suggest tilting towards IF or IH to reduce risk [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Limited upside due to short - term central bank interest rate risk warning, but asset shortage and weak economy are favorable [1] - **Gold**: Bullish due to safe - haven demand and interest rate cut expectations [1] - **Silver**: Bullish, following gold with stronger elasticity [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to be strong due to Fed interest rate cut expectations and potential supply tightness [1] - **Aluminum**: Trading in a range, affected by domestic consumption off - season and Fed interest rate cut expectations [1] - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals, but look for long - position opportunities in far - month contracts [1] - **Zinc**: Limited downside, be cautious about short - selling [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term rebound with macro factors, long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading in a range, look for selling - hedging opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Stronger in the short - term with improved macro sentiment [1] - **Silicon for Mining**: Bearish due to supply resumption and hedging pressure [1] - **Polysilicon**: Bearish with capacity reduction expectations and low terminal installation willingness [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Trading in a range, neutral valuation, unclear industrial drivers, positive macro drivers [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Trading in a range, neutral valuation, unclear industrial drivers, positive macro drivers [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish, long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals [1] - **Coke**: Bearish, long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals [1] - **Glass**: Bearish, supply surplus pressure persists [1] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish, supply surplus pressure is large, price under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Hold off on new positions, expect short - term consolidation [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Hold off on new positions, similar logic to palm oil [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Hold off on new positions, affected by ICE rapeseed price and trade policies [1] - **Cotton**: Bullish in the short - term, pay attention to time window and quota release [1] - **Sugar**: Bullish but with limited upside, pay attention to the 5600 - 6000 range [1] - **Corn**: Expected to trade at a low level in the short - term, pay attention to new grain listing [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Limited downside, expected to trade in a range [1] - **Pulp**: Consider 11 - 1 calendar spread [1] - **Logs**: Expected to trade in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [1] - **Hogs**: Bearish due to increasing supply and decreasing cost [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trading in a range, affected by Indian procurement, OPEC+ production, and tariff issues [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Trading in a range, similar factors as crude oil [1] - **Asphalt**: Short - term following crude oil, long - term demand may be overestimated [1] - **Shanghai Rubber**: Affected by rainfall, inventory, and market sentiment [1] - **BR Rubber**: Pay attention to inventory and autumn maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Bearish due to production recovery and downstream maintenance expectations [1] - **Short - fiber**: Affected by industry reform rumors, supply and demand changes [1] - **Styrene**: Affected by industry reform rumors and market trading volume [1] - **PE**: Price oscillating weakly, affected by export, domestic demand, and cost [2] - **PVC**: Trading in a range, affected by maintenance, orders, and inventory [2] - **Olefins**: Driven by market rumors and supply - demand changes [2] - **FEI**: Rebound due to multiple factors, pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation [2] - **US Freight**: Supply exceeds demand, freight rate declining [2] 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various industries and commodities. In general, the macro - financial environment has a significant impact on the market. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations, asset shortage, and weak economic conditions are important factors affecting the prices of financial and commodity assets. For different industries, factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, inventory, and market sentiment all play crucial roles in determining price trends. Some commodities are expected to be strong due to positive factors like supply tightness or increased demand, while others face downward pressure because of oversupply, weak demand, or policy - related risks [1][2]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - financial Industry The overall macro - financial environment is complex. The stock index is supported by sufficient market liquidity, while treasury bonds are affected by both favorable long - term factors and short - term interest rate risk warnings. Precious metals are driven by safe - haven demand and interest rate cut expectations [1] Non - ferrous Metals Industry Supply and demand dynamics, along with macro - economic factors and geopolitical events (such as labor unrest in Indonesia), are the main drivers of non - ferrous metal prices. Some metals are expected to be strong due to supply concerns or positive macro sentiment, while others face challenges from oversupply or weak domestic demand [1] Black Metals Industry The black metals industry is facing supply - demand imbalances, with high inventory levels and weak demand in some segments. Anti - involution is a long - term issue, and the market is trying to balance supply and demand by adjusting prices [1] Agricultural Products Industry Prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as seasonality, international trade policies, and supply - demand relationships. Some products are expected to be strong in the long - term but may experience short - term corrections, while others are trading in a range or facing downward pressure [1] Energy and Chemicals Industry The energy and chemicals industry is influenced by global supply - demand dynamics, production capacity changes, and market rumors. Crude oil prices are affected by OPEC+ production decisions and international trade issues, while chemical products are affected by factors such as production recovery, inventory changes, and industry reform rumors [1][2]

9月2日，三大指数集体回调，光模块、芯片等科技板块领跌，黄金概念股相对抗跌，截至14：40，有色 金属ETF基金（516650）跌1.76%，持仓股白银有色、西部黄金逆势涨停，盛和资源、华友钴业、锡业 股份等股跌幅靠前，黄金股ETF（159562）跌1.18%，持仓股神宇股份、山东黄金、铜陵有色等股跌幅 靠前。 近期，各行业协会陆续发出"反内卷"倡议。8月12日，中国有色金属工业协会锂业分会向锂产业链相关 企业发出倡议，呼吁抵制"内卷式"恶性竞争，加强上下游协同，维护产业安全。市场预期，下半年"反 内卷"力度将进一步加大。 中信建投证券政策研究首席分析师胡玉玮认为，后续政策将保持稳健且有序的去产能力度，进一步淘汰 环境和经济效益双低的产能，同时加强需求侧管理，适度扩大内需。近期，各行业协会陆续发出"反内 卷"倡议。市场预期，下半年"反内卷"力度将进一步加大，钢铁、有色金属、建材、光伏等多个行业有 望迎来供应格局的重新定位。 有色金属ETF基金（516650）跟踪的中证细分有色金属产业主题指数，聚焦黄金、铜、铝等工业金属， 稀土与钨钼等小金属，以及锂钴等能源金属，各金属权重为：铜29.6%，铝14.4%，稀土1 ...

消息面上，Mysteel报道称，印尼突发事件引发市场供给担忧。尽管冲突核心集中于雅加达及望加锡等 城市中心，并未直接波及苏拉威西岛的主要镍工业园区的生产活动，但投资者担忧情绪升温，短期内对 镍价形成明显情绪支撑；除非冲突大规模蔓延至主要产区并导致生产、发运实际中断，否则当前的情绪 性上涨缺乏持续动力。 方正中期期货表示，2025年镍供应总体过剩预期继续存在。印尼镍矿供应改善，但政策扰动仍存，2026 年配额审批再回三年改一年，并声言要严查非法采矿，镍生铁继续受到成本支撑滞跌，且国内外有减产 扰动，叠加国内不锈钢相对旺季，镍生铁滞跌挺价，下方支撑暂稳。 智通财经APP获悉，新疆新鑫矿业(03833)昨日暴涨22%，今日午后再涨超5%。截至发稿，涨3.39%，报 1.83港元，成交额3213.64万港元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market has accumulated significant gains and may enter a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next stage of direction decision. The bond market may strengthen, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate within a certain range. Precious metals have reached new highs, and investors need to be cautious when going long. The shipping index shows a downward trend, and investors can consider going long on the 12 - contract on dips. The prices of various metals and agricultural products also have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Monday, the A - share market opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed higher. The TMT sector remained hot, while the large - finance sector corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, and the basis of the main contracts declined [2][3]. - News: China's economic prosperity continued to expand in August. South Korea's exports in August showed strong growth, especially in semiconductors and automobiles [3]. - Capital: On September 1st, the A - share trading volume remained high, with a net withdrawal of 10.57 billion yuan by the central bank [4]. - Operation suggestion: The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are - 0.29%, - 0.05%, - 1.34%, and - 1.61% respectively. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market showed a differentiated trend [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 10.57 billion yuan. The liquidity at the beginning of the month was generally stable [4][5][6]. - Fundamental: The manufacturing PMI in August showed a slight increase, with production and new orders rebounding, and external demand remaining resilient [6]. - Operation suggestion: The bond market may strengthen. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%, and it is recommended to operate within the range [6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: Overnight, gold and silver prices rose significantly due to the increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and geopolitical instability in Europe. Gold reached a new high of $3475.35 per ounce, and silver reached a new high since 2011 at $40.674 per ounce [9]. - Outlook: The Fed's policy path may suppress the US dollar index, and institutional investors' demand for precious metals continues to increase. However, investors need to be cautious when going long unilaterally. For silver, although the industrial demand is relatively weak, the price may continue to rise [10]. - Capital: The positions of gold and silver ETFs increased significantly in August, and the speculative net long positions rebounded [10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping on European Routes - Spot price: As of September 2nd, the spot price quotes of major shipping companies showed a slow downward trend [11]. - Shipping index: As of September 1st, the SCFIS European route index and the US - West route index both declined [11]. - Fundamental: As of September 2nd, the global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The eurozone's comprehensive PMI and manufacturing PMI in August were above 50, and the US manufacturing PMI in July was 48 [11]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot price continued to decline. There may be a bottom - fishing opportunity for the 12 - contract [12]. - Operation suggestion: It is expected to oscillate. Investors can wait and see or go long on the 12 - contract on dips [12][13]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of September 1st, the average price of electrolytic copper increased, and the supply was tight. The spot trading became more active with the arrival of the traditional peak season [14]. - Macro: The Fed's attitude has become more dovish, and the market expects the probability of an interest - rate cut in September to increase [15]. - Supply: The TC of copper concentrate was at a low level. The domestic electrolytic copper production in August decreased month - on - month, and the production in September is expected to continue to decline [15]. - Demand: The operating rates of copper rod production decreased. The domestic demand was still resilient, and the power and new - energy sectors supported the demand [16]. - Inventory: The LME copper inventory decreased, the domestic social inventory decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory increased [16]. - Logic: The Fed's dovish attitude boosts copper prices, but the upside space is limited. The fundamentals show a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". Copper prices may at least oscillate [17]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 78,500 - 80,500 yuan [17]. Alumina - Spot: On September 1st, the spot prices of alumina in various regions decreased slightly, and the supply was gradually becoming more relaxed [17]. - Supply: In July 2025, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August [18]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased, and the warehouse receipt registration increased [18]. - Logic: The futures price continued to decline. The market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The downside space is limited, and the upside needs new catalysts [19][20]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3200 yuan. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [19][20]. Aluminum - Spot: On September 1st, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [20]. - Supply: In July 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the aluminum - water ratio decreased [20]. - Demand: The operating rates of downstream industries increased [21]. - Inventory: The domestic mainstream consumption - area inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [21]. - Logic: The futures price oscillated at a high level. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the improvement of fundamentals supported the price, but the high price suppressed downstream procurement. It is expected to oscillate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan [22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan, and pay attention to the pressure at 21,000 yuan [22]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On September 1st, the spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [22]. - Supply: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rate increased. In August, it was affected by the off - season, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable [23]. - Demand: In July, the demand was under pressure, and the inventory increased [23]. - Logic: The futures price oscillated downward with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the cost was supported. The demand is expected to improve in September. The price is expected to oscillate between 20,000 - 20,600 yuan [24][25]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,000 - 20,600 yuan. If the upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is strong, investors can consider the arbitrage of going long on AD and short on AL [25]. Zinc - Spot: On September 1st, the average price of zinc ingots increased, and the spot trading improved [25]. - Supply: The TC of zinc concentrate remained high. The zinc ore supply was loose, and the domestic refined zinc production increased significantly in July [26]. - Demand: The operating rates of the primary processing industries were at a seasonal low, but the decline space was limited. The downstream procurement increased after the price decline [27]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [27]. - Logic: The supply is expected to be loose, and the price may oscillate. The upward breakthrough needs better demand and interest - rate cut expectations, and the downward breakthrough needs stronger TC and continuous inventory accumulation [28]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan [28]. Tin - Spot: On September 1st, the price of 1 tin decreased slightly, and the spot trading was stagnant [28]. - Supply: The domestic tin ore import volume decreased in July, and the supply was still tight. The tin ingot import volume increased [29][30]. - Demand and inventory: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry decreased. The inventory of LME and the social inventory decreased [30][31]. - Logic: The national policy boosts the demand expectation. The supply is tight, and the price may oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to the recovery of Burmese tin ore supply [31]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to oscillate widely [31][32]. Nickel - Spot: As of September 1st, the average price of 1 electrolytic nickel increased [32]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a high level and was expected to increase slightly [32]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys was stable, the demand for stainless steel was average, and the demand for nickel sulfate was under pressure [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory remained at a high level, the domestic social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory remained stable [33]. - Logic: The futures price oscillated upward. The cost was supported, and the supply - demand fundamentals changed little. The price may oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan [34]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan [34][36]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of September 1st, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased, and the basis decreased [36]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron was strong. The price of chrome ore was supported by cost [36][38]. - Supply: The domestic stainless - steel production in August is expected to increase [37]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased [37]. - Logic: The futures price was strong. The cost was supported, but the terminal demand was weak. It is expected to oscillate between 12,600 - 13,400 yuan [38]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,600 - 13,400 yuan [38][39]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of September 1st, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume decreased [39]. - Supply: The production in August increased, but the supply was expected to contract recently [40]. - Demand: The demand was stable and optimistic, and the demand in September is expected to increase [40]. - Inventory: The inventory decreased slightly in all links last week [42]. - Logic: The futures price was weak, and the main - contract center moved down. The supply - demand was in a tight balance, and the price may oscillate widely between 72,000 - 78,000 yuan [43]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and widely [43][44]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: The futures price decreased significantly, and the spot price followed the decline [44]. - Cost and profit: The cost support may weaken, and the steel profit decreased significantly in August [44]. - Supply: The iron - element production increased from January to August. The steel production reached a new high this year, and the production may decline seasonally after the military parade [44]. - Demand: The domestic demand may weaken seasonally, and the export remained at a high level. The demand is expected to improve in September and October [45]. - Inventory: The inventory increased significantly in August, and it is expected to increase more slowly in the future [45]. - View: The steel price may continue to decline. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options and consider going long on the ratio of steel to ore [46]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of September 1st, the price of mainstream iron ore powder decreased [47]. - Futures: The main contract of iron ore decreased [47]. - Basis: The basis of different varieties was calculated [47]. - Demand: The steel - mill profit rate was at a high level, and the iron - water production decreased slightly [48]. - Supply: The global iron - ore shipment increased significantly, and the port arrival volume increased [48]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, the port - clearance volume decreased, and the steel - mill inventory decreased [49]. - View: The iron - ore price may not have a strong upward drive. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [49]. Coking Coal - Spot: The spot price oscillated weakly, and the coal - mine inventory increased slightly [50]. - Supply: The coal - mine operating rate decreased slightly, and the import - coal price decreased [51][53]. - Demand: The coking - plant and blast - furnace operating rates decreased due to production restrictions [51][52][53]. - Inventory: The coal - mine, port, and border - port inventories increased slightly, and the coking - plant and steel - mill inventories decreased slightly [52][53]. - View: The coking - coal price may continue to decline in September. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [53]. Coke - Spot: The seventh - round price increase of coke was implemented, and the eighth - round increase was blocked [54][56]. - Supply: The coking - plant operating rate decreased due to production restrictions [54][56]. - Demand: The iron - water production decreased, and the demand may be affected by production - reduction policies [55][56]. - Inventory: The coking - plant, port, and steel - mill inventories all increased slightly [56]. - View: The coke price may decline in the future. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on coke [56]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The domestic soybean - meal spot price increased on September 1st, and the trading volume decreased. The rapeseed - meal trading volume was 100 tons [57]. - Fundamental news: There were various news about soybean production and trade around the world, such as the expected increase in US soybean crushing in July and the decrease in EU soybean imports [57][58]. - Market outlook: The US soybean yield is expected to be high, and the supply - demand pattern suppresses the market. The domestic meal price may have limited downward space, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the 3000 - 3050 range [59][60]. Live Pigs - Spot situation: The spot price of live pigs oscillated upward on September 1st [61]. - Market data: The profit of live - pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly [61][62]. - Market outlook: The short - term supply tightened, which boosted the price, but the duration may be limited. It is recommended to operate with caution [62].