Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 2.78%, ranking first among all primary industries, with energy metals up 13.38% and industrial metals up 1.37% [14][1] - The precious metals market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, with the Turkish central bank's gold sales exacerbating market volatility [4][48] - Industrial metals prices rebounded as signals of US-Iran negotiations emerged, alleviating previous panic [28][27] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.09%, while the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 2.78%, outperforming the index by 3.87 percentage points [14] - Among the sub-sectors, energy metals and small metals performed well, while precious metals faced declines [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices increased with LME copper at $12,141 per ton (up 2.59%) and SHFE copper at ¥95,930 per ton (up 1.26%). Domestic smelting plant repairs led to a rapid decline in social inventory, down 14.86% to 519,500 tons [32][2] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum rose to $3,285 per ton (up 2.90%), while SHFE aluminum fell to ¥23,935 per ton (down 0.35%). Supply risks increased due to attacks on facilities in Bahrain and the UAE [38][39] - **Zinc**: Prices rose with LME zinc at $3,107 per ton (up 1.65%) and SHFE zinc at ¥23,380 per ton (up 1.94%). Both LME and SHFE inventories decreased [41] - **Tin**: LME tin prices increased to $46,000 per ton (up 7.38%) and SHFE tin to ¥362,460 per ton (up 5.83%) due to improved downstream demand [45] Precious Metals - Gold prices fell slightly, with COMEX gold at $4,489.70 per ounce (down 0.05%) and SHFE gold at ¥998.66 per gram (down 3.90%). The market has fully priced in the Fed's interest rate hike expectations [48][4] - The Turkish central bank sold 58.4 tons of gold, impacting market stability [48] - Recent geopolitical tensions have led to a simultaneous rise in gold and oil prices, indicating a return of gold's inflation-hedging and safe-haven attributes [49]

Group 1: Liquidity and Capital Flow - The supply side of equity public offerings remains at a historically high level, with new fund issuance at 110 billion yuan, maintaining an 81% percentile over the past three years[6] - Margin financing net inflow decreased to -247.2 billion yuan, placing it in the 7% percentile over the past three years[11] - Southbound capital net inflow increased to 223.2 billion yuan, reaching the 72% percentile historically[38] Group 2: Trading Activity and Market Sentiment - Trading heat in the light industry sector rose by 13 percentage points to 38%, while the construction materials sector fell by 16 percentage points to 53%[44] - The search interest for A-shares on social media reached a new high for the year, driven by a 3.6% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index on March 23[2] - Retail investor net inflow decreased to 1200.5 billion yuan, down 610.2 billion yuan from the previous value, representing the 67.8% percentile over the past five years[2] Group 3: Stock Buybacks and Financing - The total amount of stock buybacks last week was 20.9 billion yuan, up from 9.8 billion yuan, placing it in the 59% percentile historically[23] - Equity financing amounted to 121.3 billion yuan, with IPOs contributing 45.8 billion yuan and refinancing 75.5 billion yuan, at the 58% percentile historically[26] Group 4: Investor Behavior - The number of individual investors participating in margin trading reached 8.071 million, with daily active participants decreasing by 45,000 from the previous value[14] - The overall margin trading turnover rate last week was 36.2%, down from 38.7%, placing it in the 68% percentile historically[14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation between the US and Iran, which has a wide - ranging impact on various industries such as energy, metals, and shipping. - Different industries show different trends. Some industries are supported by cost and supply - demand factors, while others are restricted by high inventory or weak demand. Summary by Category Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index shows a low - opening and high - walking pattern, with sector rotation and overall volatility. The market has low - level buying power but lacks the impetus for further upward movement. It is recommended to use grid operations for unilateral trading, conduct IM\IC 2609 long + ETF short arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [19][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: At the end of the quarter, the central bank injects liquidity, and the bond market sentiment is positive. However, the short - end may face adjustment pressure after the quarter. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading, hold short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread (TL - 3T) in moderation, and try to short the 30Y new - old bond spread (TL - 30Y active bond) [23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The market has limited changes, and the price fluctuates. The US soybean market lacks bullish support, and it is recommended to be cautious in the short term. For trading, it is suggested to be bearish on the short - term for the unilateral strategy, narrow the MRM09 spread for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [26][27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is slightly adjusted, but the general trend is still strong. The domestic sugar price is expected to follow slightly. It is recommended to go long at low prices and go short at high prices for the unilateral strategy, long ICE sugar and short Zhengzhou sugar for the arbitrage strategy, and sell put options for the option strategy [28][31][32]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Indonesia's implementation of B50 policy drives the oil market up. The oil market is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to hold a high - level shock view for the unilateral strategy and stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price falls, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to have a bullish view on the callback of CBOT corn 05 contract for the unilateral strategy, narrow the 07 corn - starch spread for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [36][39]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure eases, but the overall price still has pressure. It is recommended to be bearish on the 07 contract for the unilateral strategy, conduct LH79 reverse arbitrage for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates narrowly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and sell pk605 - P - 7700 options [42][43]. - **Eggs**: The spot price stabilizes, and the number of culled hens increases. It is recommended to short the 6 - month contract for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [45][46]. - **Apples**: The demand is good, and the price is strong. It is expected that the 5 - month contract will fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [47][48]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: Supported by bullish factors, the price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to go long at low prices for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and buy call options [50][52][53]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Overseas sentiment affects the futures price, and there is no obvious trend. It is recommended to maintain a shock view for the unilateral strategy, hold the long hc05 - 10 spread for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [55][56]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The impact of geopolitical disturbances weakens, and it is necessary to focus on the actual changes in the fundamentals. It is recommended to conduct band trading for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [57][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances still exist, and the price is at a high level. It is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for the spot for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [60][62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: Driven by demand and cost, the price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to have a bullish view on the shock for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and sell out - of - the - money put options [64][65]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The situation between the US and Iran is tense, and the price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance of the 10 - day moving average and the impact of sudden war news for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [67][68][69]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The dovish statement of the Fed supports market confidence, and the price stops falling and fluctuates. It is recommended that investors with high risk tolerance can cautiously go long on platinum for the unilateral strategy, conduct long platinum and short palladium arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [72][73][74]. - **Copper**: It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of the US - Iran situation. The price fluctuates weakly at a low level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [76][77]. - **Alumina**: It is necessary to pay attention to the mining policy in Guinea and the situation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The price fluctuates mainly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [78][80]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The start - up situation of aluminum plants in the Middle - East after being attacked is uncertain. The price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [82][83]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and the price fluctuates widely with the aluminum price. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [85][86]. - **Zinc**: It is necessary to pay attention to the macro and capital sentiment. The price may fluctuate strongly in the range. It is recommended to hold long positions and raise the stop - loss line for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [87][88]. - **Lead**: The price fluctuates at a low level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [90][91]. - **Nickel**: The macro uncertainty is high. The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [94][96]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, it follows the nickel price. The price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [98][99]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is recommended to take short positions. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [101]. - **Polysilicon**: The demand is weak, and it is recommended to take a bearish view. It is recommended to take short positions for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [102]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply disturbance supports the price at a high level. It is recommended to have a bullish view. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [105]. - **Tin**: The Middle - East war expands, and the price fluctuates strongly in a narrow range. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [107][109]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: Iran plans to establish a strait toll system, and the SCFIS index rises. It is recommended that the near - month contract EC2604 fluctuates mainly, and the far - month contract may rise due to the Middle - East geopolitical situation. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy [110][111][112]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The Middle - East geopolitical conflict continues. If Iran's toll policy is implemented, it will increase the operating cost of dry bulk ships. It is necessary to pay attention to the shutdown duration of some bauxite mines in Western Australia [114][115]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The Chinese carbon market is in the off - season, and the EU carbon market is about to be reformed. The Chinese carbon price is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the EU carbon price is expected to show a shock - strengthening trend [117][118][119]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The WTI crude oil price closes above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. It is recommended to be bullish at a high level for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [122][123]. - **Asphalt**: The cost rises and the supply shrinks, with strong bottom support. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BU2606 contract for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [124][125][126]. - **Fuel Oil**: Supported by the geopolitical conflict, it remains strong. It is recommended to be bullish at a high level for the unilateral strategy, pay attention to the low - sulfur production reduction and high - sulfur peak - season demand start rhythm for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [128][129]. - **LPG**: The CP is expected to rise. The price fluctuates strongly at a high level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [130]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk is repeated, and the upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to hold long positions in the TTF contract for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and sell deep out - of - the - money put options for the option strategy [133][134][135]. - **PX & PTA**: Affected by raw materials, future PTA devices may change. The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [137][138][139]. - **BZ & EB**: The refinery's load reduction affects the pure benzene supply, and the benzene import volume decreases year - on - year. The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [140][141]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas shutdowns increase, and the supply tightens. The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [143][144][145]. - **Short - Fiber**: The processing margin fluctuates within a range. The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [146][148]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory is continuously reduced. The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [149][150]. - **Propylene**: The load continues to decline, and the export expectation increases. The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [152][153]. - **Plastic PP**: The import and external purchase are at a loss. It is recommended to take small long positions in the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [154][156]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price weakens. It is recommended to have a bearish view on the shock for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [157][159]. - **PVC**: The price fluctuates mainly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the unilateral, arbitrage, and option strategies [160][161]. - **Soda Ash**: The price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to short at a high level for the unilateral strategy, conduct long glass and short soda ash 09 contract arbitrage, and sell call options [163][164]. - **Glass**: The price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to short at a high level for the unilateral strategy, conduct long glass and short soda ash 09 contract arbitrage, and sell call options [165][166]. - **Methanol**: The price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to have a bullish view on the shock for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [167]. - **Urea**: The price fluctuates mainly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [170]. - **Pulp**: The high inventory suppresses the pulp price. It is recommended to conduct range operations for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and sell SP2605 - P - 5100 options [175][176][177]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the paper price rebounds weakly. It is recommended to short at a high level for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and sell OP2606 - C - 4200 options [178][180][181]. - **Logs**: The geopolitical risk is repeated, and the upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long at low prices for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [182][185]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The commercial housing sales area decreases. It is recommended to hold long positions in the RU05 and NR05 contracts and short positions in the RU 09 contract for the unilateral strategy, hold the NR2605 - RU2605 spread for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [186][188][189]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The butadiene gross profit reaches a new high. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the support at the recent low of 17520 points for the unilateral strategy, pay attention to the support at the recent low of +840 points for the BR2505 - RU2505 spread for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [192][194].

Overall Research - In March, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a general pullback, with significant differentiation across sectors. The A-share market saw the ChiNext index decline by 0.4%, while the Sci-Tech 50 index fell by 12.6%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 4.6%, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 6.3% [1][2]. A-share Insights - Chinese assets are expected to show internal stability and potential for mid-term upward movement. Despite facing short-term risks from oil price fluctuations and declining risk appetite, the domestic market's high energy self-sufficiency provides some resistance to rising external energy prices. Historically, domestic exports tend to benefit from increased external uncertainties, indicating a stable supply chain [1]. Sector Recommendations - Focus on sectors that have previously experienced significant declines, those benefiting from rising commodity prices, and industries with potential for exceeding performance expectations. The report highlights resource products, essential consumption, hard technology, and government investment-related sectors as key areas of interest [2]. Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market is positioned for resilience, with the OpenClaw framework redefining the AI industry narrative. The performance of leading AI companies in the US, such as Nvidia and Google, supports a robust fundamental backdrop for a rebound in Hong Kong stocks. The market is experiencing a convergence of three favorable factors: clear industry prosperity, improving sentiment as geopolitical concerns ease, and strong capital support, with net inflows of 63.2 billion HKD as of March 27 [3]. Investment Focus - The report recommends prioritizing investments in the technology sector, particularly through Hong Kong technology ETFs, to capitalize on the overall rebound. Specific focus should be on companies that are rapidly commercializing AI and have stable cash flows and low valuations [3]. A-share Stock Recommendations - The recommended A-share stocks for April 2026 include: - Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创) - Communication - Teruid (特锐德) - Power Equipment - Jereh (杰瑞股份) - Machinery - Nanjing Bank (南京银行) - Banking - Zijin Mining (紫金矿业) - Non-ferrous Metals - China Petroleum (中国石油) - Oil and Petrochemicals - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (中国海油) - Oil and Petrochemicals - Jinjiang Hotels (锦江酒店) - Social Services - Huaneng International (华能国际) - Utilities - Haier Smart Home (海尔智家) - Home Appliances [4][6]. Hong Kong Stock Recommendations - The recommended Hong Kong stocks for April 2026 include: - Hon Teng Precision (鸿腾精密) - Communication - Huiju Technology (汇聚科技) - Power Equipment - Alibaba (阿里巴巴-W) - Retail [4][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market will experience range-bound fluctuations due to the combination of macro factors and supply disturbances [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Market - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate continued to rise to 171,620 yuan/ton, with a significant reduction in trading volume and a slight decrease in positions. The warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased compared to the previous day. The average price of SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate in the spot market was 164,500 yuan/ton. Upstream lithium salt producers' shipping sentiment improved, while downstream material manufacturers' restocking willingness was weak [3]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to cause disturbances, but Trump has signaled an end to the war. In the short term, the domestic lithium ore supply is supported by mining disturbances, but attention should be paid to the potential downward risk caused by the loosening of policies in Zimbabwe [3]. Raw Material Fundamentals - On the supply side, last week, the prices of raw materials were divided. The CIF price of spodumene concentrate in China increased slightly, while the domestic spot price decreased slightly. The SMM operating rate continued to rise to 56.57%, and the total output increased to 24,814 tons, with the overall supply steadily increasing [4]. - On the demand side, ternary lithium iron continued the trend of increasing production and inventory. The production and sales of energy storage cells were booming, and the inventory was at a low level, which was a structural highlight. From March to April, the intensive release of new models is expected to drive a marginal improvement in demand [4]. - In terms of inventory, last week, the SMM four - region social inventory decreased to 39,300 tons; the sample weekly inventory increased to 99,500 tons in a cumulative manner but was still at a relatively low level, and the total inventory days increased to 27.9 days. Structurally, both upstream and downstream increased inventory, while traders reduced inventory [4]. Macro - Policy Level - Internationally, the 15% temporary tariff policy of the US White House is still within the window period, which is a phased positive for demand. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to cause disturbances, and although Trump has signaled an end to the war, macro uncertainties still exist [4]. - Domestically, the comprehensive utilization management method for new - energy vehicle power batteries will optimize the domestic supply structure in the long term and raise the cost support center. The development of Qinghai Salt Lake, the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and the Central Economic Work Conference support the long - term balance of supply and demand. The 2026 government work report mentioned zero - carbon parks/factories, which are expected to become the second growth curve for energy storage [4].

Market Overview - The domestic market enters the earnings season in April, with ongoing overseas disturbances potentially balancing market styles[3] - Key focus areas include Middle Eastern geopolitical disturbances affecting oil prices and fluctuating inflation expectations[3] Investment Strategy - The strategy emphasizes three main lines: 1. Energy security, focusing on traditional energy price increases and new energy directions due to potential replenishment demand[3] 2. Technology, particularly AI infrastructure, including power, storage, and computing sectors[3] 3. Rebound of previously oversold sectors such as precious metals and commercial aerospace[3] Recommended Stocks - Key recommended sectors and stocks include: - Metals: Zijin Mining - Chemicals: Yara International - Petrochemicals: Shouhua Gas - Power: Longyuan Power H - Coal: Yancoal Energy - New Energy: Jiayuan Technology - Banking: Hangzhou Bank - Agriculture: Dekang Agriculture - Electronics: Zhaoyi Innovation - Communication: Zhongji Xuchuang[6] Risk Factors - Economic recovery may fall short of expectations, with potential slow job growth and reduced market demand[34] - Significant changes in individual stock fundamentals could impact performance[34] Earnings Forecasts - Forecasted earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key stocks: - Zijin Mining: EPS of 3.10 in 2026, PE of 10.5[28] - Yara International: EPS of 4.24 in 2026, PE of 15.2[28] - Shouhua Gas: EPS of 1.42 in 2026, PE of 16.7[28] - Longyuan Power H: EPS of 0.72 in 2026, PE of 9.5[28] - Yancoal Energy: EPS of 1.23 in 2026, PE of 16.5[28] - Jiayuan Technology: EPS of 1.90 in 2026, PE of 21.9[28] - Hangzhou Bank: EPS of 2.84 in 2026, PE of 5.8[28] - Dekang Agriculture: EPS of 2.89 in 2026, PE of 20.3[28] - Zhaoyi Innovation: EPS of 8.62 in 2026, PE of 30.0[28] - Zhongji Xuchuang: EPS of 17.40 in 2026, PE of 34.4[28]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The strengthening of the US dollar restricts the price recovery of copper [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 95,760 with a daily decline of 0.18%, and the night - session closing price was 95,350 with a decline of 0.43%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 1,2195 with a daily increase of 0.44%. The trading volume and open interest of both Shanghai Copper and LME Copper decreased compared with the previous day [1] - **Inventory and Spread Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 6,105 to 230,971, and the inventory of LME Copper increased by 2,350 to 362,600. There were various changes in spreads such as LME copper premium, spot - futures spreads, and cross - period spreads [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: Powell said the Fed's interest rate is in a "favorable position", can ignore Iran - related oil price shocks but should be wary of changes in inflation expectations. Powell reversed traders' bets, and it is still possible to cut interest rates this year. The US Treasury bond gains expanded and did not follow oil prices. The White House said Trump hopes to reach an agreement by April 6, but Iran denies the negotiation. Trump threatened to "destroy all power plants, oil wells and Kharg Island in Iran" if no agreement is reached, and Iran responded that it would cut power to the entire region if attacked [1] 3. Industry News - China's refined copper production from January to February was 2.473 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%. China's February 2026 scrap copper imports were 167,937.84 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.72% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.13%. Peru's January copper production was 226,256 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. Codelco expects the supply disruption caused by the Middle East conflict to increase its production cost by about 5%. Glomar Minerals and Cobalt Blue will jointly build a seabed mineral processing facility [3] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral position [3]

Regulatory Environment - The Market Regulation Administration has issued a notice to combat "involution" competition in key industries such as platform economy, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles[2] - The Ministry of Finance has announced plans to accelerate the development of local additional tax laws for 2026, marking the first official mention of such legislation[2] Market Performance - On Monday, A-shares experienced a slight decline, with the CSI 300 index down 0.24%, while small-cap indices like the CSI 2000 and CSI 1000 rose by 0.37% and 0.28% respectively[3] - The total market turnover was approximately 1.93 trillion yuan, an increase of 637 billion yuan from the previous trading day[3] Sector Analysis - The leading sectors included non-ferrous metals (+1.84%), building materials (+1.67%), and telecommunications (+1.31%), while utilities (-2.97%) and household appliances also saw significant declines[3] - The A-share market's total market capitalization reached 109.73 trillion yuan, with a year-to-date increase of 0.98 trillion yuan[15] Global Market Context - Major global indices showed mixed results, with European markets rising and the UK FTSE 100 gaining 1.61%, while the US markets, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, experienced declines of 0.36% and 0.39% respectively[3] - The US dollar index rose by 0.33% to 100.51, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly to 6.9164 against the dollar[12] Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs has slightly downgraded the fair value of Chinese stocks by approximately 5% due to the impact of high energy prices and geopolitical risks, while maintaining an overweight view on the market[7] - The forecast for China's GDP growth in 2026 has been adjusted down by 20 basis points, reflecting a more resilient position compared to the US and other emerging markets[7] Investment Trends - There is a growing interest in sectors with high cash/dividend returns and earnings realization during uncertain market conditions, with expectations for A/H share profit growth to reach low double digits in 2026[9] - Signs indicate that international capital may be flowing into Hong Kong, as evidenced by a drop in interbank rates and increased trading volumes post-conflict[8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both the non-ferrous metals and precious metals sectors [7]. Core Views - Recent declines in gold prices are primarily attributed to liquidity squeezes, as investors prefer holding cash during risk events, leading to the liquidation of gold and other assets [1][2]. - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over stagflation combined with weakened interest rate cut expectations have intensified volatility in risk assets, contributing to liquidity pressures [1]. - Historical parallels are drawn to the 1973-1975 oil crisis, where gold prices experienced a cycle of declines and recoveries influenced by liquidity events and economic downturns [4]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The recent drop in gold prices is linked to a significant reduction in net long positions held by asset management institutions, which fell by 32% from 134,000 contracts on January 13 to 91,000 contracts by March 24, marking a one-year low [2]. - The current market environment reflects a shift away from gold's traditional role as an inflation hedge due to liquidity squeezes, although the reduction in long positions may signal a nearing end to selling pressure [2]. Macro Environment - Gold is currently under "de-virtualization" pressure, particularly in cash-strapped Gulf countries facing physical shortages of goods, leading to a rational choice to liquidate high-yielding gold for essential items [3]. - The report notes that global central bank and private sector gold holdings are at historical highs, with the proportion of gold in reserves expected to rise from 12.8% in 2020 to 24.5% by the end of 2025 [3]. Historical Context - The report outlines the price movements of gold during the 1973-1974 oil crisis, where gold prices initially rose following the outbreak of the Yom Kippur War, then fell due to liquidity issues, before experiencing a significant recovery as economic conditions stabilized [4]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, the report remains optimistic about gold's long-term value as a hedge against risk, driven by factors such as de-dollarization and unsustainable fiscal policies [5]. - The potential for gold prices to rise to $5,400-$6,800 per ounce is highlighted if the proportion of investable gold exceeds 4.3%-4.8% by 2026-2028, compared to 3.6% in 2011 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical tensions ease [2][4]. - Silver: Drops from the trading range [2][4]. - Copper: A stronger US dollar restricts price recovery [2][7]. - Zinc: Shows a slightly bullish trend [2][10]. - Lead: Lacks driving forces and prices fluctuate [2][13]. - Tin: Trades within a range [2][16]. - Aluminum: Supply issues continue to escalate [2][20]. - Alumina: Shows a slightly bearish trend [2][20]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][20]. - Platinum: Mainly trades in a sideways range [2][24]. - Palladium: Trades in a narrow range [2][24]. - Nickel: Inventory accumulation slows down marginally, and the mining end supports the upward shift of pyrometallurgical costs [2][36]. - Stainless steel: Prices fluctuate as demand and cost factors compete [2][37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2602 and Gold T+D increased by 1.59% and 1.66% respectively, with trading volumes decreasing. For silver, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2602 and Silver T+D increased by 1.13% and 0.54% respectively, with trading volumes showing different trends [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged, while the inventory of Comex Gold decreased by 192,945 ounces. The inventory of Shanghai Silver increased by 2,628 kilograms, and the inventory of Comex Silver decreased by 250,587 ounces [4]. - **Macro - News**: Powell stated that the Fed's interest rates are in a "favorable position", and traders expect a possible rate cut this year. The White House said Trump hopes to reach an agreement by April 6, but Iran denies the negotiation [4][6]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 0.18%, with trading volume and open interest decreasing. The closing price of LME Copper 3M increased by 0.44%, with trading volume and open interest also decreasing [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 6,105 tons, and the inventory of LME Copper increased by 2,350 tons [7]. - **Macro - News**: Similar to gold, including Powell's remarks and US - Iran negotiation news. Industry news shows that China's refined copper production from January to February increased by 9% year - on - year, and Peru's copper production in January increased by 3% year - on - year [7][9]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 0.68%, with trading volume and open interest decreasing. The closing price of LME Zinc 3M increased by 1.07%, with trading volume and open interest decreasing [10]. - **News**: Trump said Iran has agreed to "most of the content" in the "15 - point plan", and the Iran - related war is changing the energy pattern [11]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 0.36%, with trading volume and open interest decreasing. The closing price of LME Lead 3M increased by 0.69%, with trading volume decreasing and open interest increasing [13]. - **News**: Similar to copper, including Powell's remarks and US - Iran negotiation news [14]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 4.20%, with trading volume increasing and open interest increasing. The closing price of LME Tin 3M increased by 0.35%, with trading volume decreasing and open interest decreasing [17]. - **Macro - News**: Similar to other metals, including Powell's remarks and some policy - related news [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: For electrolytic aluminum, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased, with trading volume and open interest showing different trends. For alumina, the closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract decreased, and for cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the main contract increased [20]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots increased, and the inventory of LME aluminum ingots decreased [20]. - **News**: Powell's remarks and Trump's threat to Iran [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of platinum futures and related spot increased, while the prices of palladium futures and related spot showed mixed trends. Trading volumes and open interests also changed differently [25]. - **Macro - News**: Policy is in a favorable position, and private credit does not pose a systemic risk. Market expectations for Fed rate hikes have changed, and there are various events related to the Iran situation [27][28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract increased slightly, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract decreased slightly. Trading volumes and open interests showed different trends [37]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia plans to adjust the benchmark price of nickel ore, and some nickel - related companies have production - related news. Inventory data shows changes in refined nickel, new - energy, and nickel - iron - stainless - steel inventories [37][43].