Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector has emerged as one of the strongest performing sectors in the market since 2025, with the China Securities Index for non-ferrous metals leading 31 first-level sub-industries with a nearly 70% increase [1] Group 1: Performance and Drivers - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a broad-based rally, driven by rising precious metal prices due to Federal Reserve rate cuts and safe-haven demand, as well as industrial metals benefiting from supply constraints and demand recovery [1][12] - The sector has experienced a "Davis Double Play" phenomenon, where both metal prices and corporate earnings expectations have significantly increased [15][12] - Factors contributing to the sector's strength include macroeconomic easing, supply-demand dynamics, market sentiment, and sector rotation effects [13][12] Group 2: Future Outlook and Risks - Short-term volatility risks are anticipated due to previous rapid price increases, but the long-term investment value of the non-ferrous metals sector remains solid, supported by commodity scarcity and attractive valuations [12][19] - Key signals to monitor include the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts, mining disruptions, domestic growth policies, and signs of PPI stabilization [21][20] - The strategic value of rare earths is expected to provide solid support for the sector's long-term performance, especially in the context of geopolitical tensions and supply chain considerations [22][25] Group 3: Sector Differentiation - Within the non-ferrous metals sector, there are significant differences in the demand drivers for various metals, with precious metals primarily driven by safe-haven demand, while industrial and energy metals benefit from macroeconomic recovery and energy transition [24][18] - The strategic importance of rare earths is increasingly recognized, with export control policies enhancing China's competitive advantage in the global market [22][23] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on metals with strong demand certainty and clear supply constraints, while also considering sector rotation opportunities [24][19] - The overall investment strategy should balance short-term trading risks with long-term growth potential, particularly in light of the current market dynamics and geopolitical factors [27][26]

截至2025年10月16日，西澳FOB氧化铝价格为323美元/吨，海运费23.85美元/吨，美元/人民币汇率卖出 价在7.15附近，该价格折合国内主流港口对外售价约2880.45元/吨左右，低于SMM氧化铝指数价格50.19 元/吨，进口窗口维持开启状态。 截至本周四，全国氧化铝周度开工率小幅度下调，全国氧化铝运行产能降低94万吨至9108万吨，但国内 氧化铝供应过剩压力仍存。 截至2025年10月17日当周，氧化铝期货主力合约收于2800元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周增持 15873手。 本周（10月13日-10月17日）市场上看，氧化铝期货周内开盘报2856元/吨，最高触及2856元/吨，最低下 探至2773元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-2.68%。 消息面回顾： 南华期货：氧化铝目前仍走在过剩逻辑的道路上。目前氧化铝国内产能维持高位，过剩明显，同时进口 窗口打开，加剧供需不平衡的状态，国内外现货价格无论是网价还是成交价均持续下跌，在没有出现大 规模检修的情况现推荐仍以空头思路为主。 新湖期货：近期氧化铝产量无显著变化，运行产能平稳，产量维持在历史高位，进口量略有增加。消费 稳中略增，下游电解铝厂运行产能继续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the third quarter earnings growth of A-shares is expected to improve compared to the second quarter, with a focus on fundamental trends during the earnings disclosure period [1][2][3] Earnings Disclosure Peak - The peak period for third-quarter earnings disclosures for A-share companies will occur in mid to late October, with approximately 2.3% of companies having already released earnings forecasts as of October 16 [2][3] Earnings Growth Expectations - A-share earnings growth is anticipated to increase year-on-year in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, with non-financial earnings expected to grow by 8.2% [3][4] - Retail sales growth has shown marginal slowdown, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6% from January to August, down from 5.0% in the first half of the year [3][4] Sector Highlights - Key sectors to watch during the earnings period include: - Gold sector and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) benefiting from AI trends [4][9] - High-growth opportunities less correlated with economic cycles, such as the AI industry chain and white goods [4][9] - Industries achieving supply-side clearing, including industrial metals, lithium batteries, and innovative pharmaceuticals [4][9] Financial Sector Insights - Non-bank financials are expected to benefit from high market activity, while the gold and technology hardware sectors are projected to be structural highlights [4][5] - The report suggests that the non-financial sector will see varied performance, with the gold sector expected to outperform due to rising prices amid geopolitical tensions [4][5] Manufacturing and Export Performance - The manufacturing sector, particularly in energy and raw materials, is expected to see improved performance, with rising prices for non-ferrous metals and coal [5][6] - The export sector remains resilient, with year-on-year growth in export amounts in the range of 8.0% to 8.4% from July to September [3][4] Consumer Sector Trends - The consumer sector is facing challenges, with overall demand needing to be stimulated, particularly in essential consumption areas like food and beverages [7][8] - New consumption areas, such as beauty and trendy products, are expected to perform relatively well despite a general slowdown in consumer demand [7][8] TMT Sector Outlook - The TMT sector is experiencing high growth, particularly in AI-related fields, with expectations for continued capital expenditure increases in technology [4][8] - The semiconductor and software industries are projected to maintain strong performance, driven by stable demand and low base effects [8][9]

点击小程序查看原文 10月中下旬进入三季报披露高峰期。 A股上市公司三季报业绩将在10月中下旬集中披露。三季度国内部分增长动能呈现边际放缓迹象，近期市场在此前成 交快速上涨以及中美关税冲击下维持震荡态势，基本面可能成为交易关注重点。截至10月16日已披露三季报预告的A股公司约为2.3%，我们结合行业分析 员自下而上预测，梳理三季报业绩预览供投资者参考。 三季度A股盈利同比增速可能较二季度提升。 内需方面， 三季度社零增速边际放缓，1-8月社零总额同比+4.6%（vs.上半年5.0%），以旧换新政策退坡或 为主要影响；房地产量价延续走弱，地产板块或继续对全A业绩造成影响。物价层面，3Q25物价水平持续承压，CPI同比降幅走阔至-0.23%，PPI同比 在"反内卷"政策下降幅收窄至-2.9%略有改善。 外需方面， 7-9月人民币计价的出口金额同比增长8.0%/4.8%/8.4%，具有较强韧性。 综合来看， 我们预计 基数效应下2025年三季度A股非金融盈利同比增速可能较二季度提升。部分参考指标包括：1）2025年1-8月工业企业利润同比+0.9%，其中8月单月由此前 负增长快速抬升至20.4%，更多受基数效应和其 ...

【 摘要 】中金公司李求索表示，美国宣布对中国加征额外关税等举措短期内扰动全球资产，但 中国资产重估的中期趋势未被影响。国海富兰克林基金四季度投资策略称，两类资产值得关注： 高股息蓝筹股，高景气成长股。 一、焦点锐评 1．9月"剪刀差"收敛，信贷小幅回落 10月15日，央行公布的数据显示，9月M2同比增长8.4%，较8月回落0.4个百分点；M1同比增长 7.2%，较8月提升1.2个百分点，M1与M2增速差进一步收窄至1.2%，延续了今年以来的收窄趋 势。9月新增人民币贷款1.29万亿元，低于市场预期1.46万亿元，较去年同期少增约3000亿元。 【解读】广发证券认为，今年以来M1、M2"剪刀差"明显收敛，反映出企业生产经营活跃度提 升、个人投资消费需求回暖等积极信号。瑞信证券认为，考虑到年初至今的信贷增速（尤其是人 民币贷款增长不及预期），当下对2025年末信贷同比增长8.6%的基准预测面临小幅下行风险，增 速可能放缓至8.4-8.5%。 二、权益市场 1.中信证券：中国传统制造业迎来全球定价权提升契机 中信证券裘翔等称，全球资本开支结构的分化以及中国传统制造业资本开支放缓为此类行业向全 球定价权转化创造条件 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a volume contraction and noticeable declines in the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index, with expectations of a wide-ranging fluctuation phase in the short term while still being in an upward trend overall [1][5][6] Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus should be on defensive and consumer sectors, with significant value in the non-ferrous metals industry; long-term growth remains centered on technology, particularly in TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors [1][6][7][8] Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has revised the "Corporate Governance Guidelines for Listed Companies," effective January 1, 2026, to enhance governance standards among listed companies [2] Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance will continue to advance the 2026 new local government debt limits to support major projects and bolster economic recovery [3] Industry Insights - The user base for generative artificial intelligence in China reached 515 million by June 2025, doubling in six months, indicating a significant growth trend in this sector [4] - The non-ferrous metals sector is highlighted for its strong configuration value due to supply-side contraction policies and new demand dynamics, with specific focus on gold, rare earths, copper, aluminum, and new energy metals [8] - Solid-state battery technology is gaining traction, with expectations for significant advancements in product performance and cost, presenting investment opportunities across the battery supply chain [10]

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 金属与材料 证券研究报告 宏观扰动依旧，贵金属持续突破 基本金属：情绪推涨铜价，基本面支撑有限。1）铜：本周铜价下跌，沪铜收于 84390元/吨。基本面上当 前国内冶炼厂的检修仍在持续，国内产出处于近几个月来的低位，不过好在近期铜价走高，再生铜供应有 所回升，因此供应端的扰动因素也有所减弱，但冶炼厂的产出依然偏低;国内消费受限于价格上涨,市场新增 订单量有限，下游近期提货表现也并不理想，需求端整体呈现一个较弱的状态，并未有明显的旺季特征体 现，从供需来看，对铜价的支撑有明显减弱。近期出口窗口打开，冶炼厂出口较为积极，因此国内库存的 积聚在需求走弱的背景下也并未有明显增长。整体来看，当前市场情绪对铜价的引导更为强烈，基本面对 铜价的支撑有限，且高铜价在产业链的传递上并不理想，市场预计仍将延续近期的高波动状态，市场的风 险依然较大，需要注意近期需求传递上的表现，对市场供需的影响或更为直观，尤其是现货端的表现。建 议关注：紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、金诚信、五矿资源等，同时关注铜矿自给率提升以及具备成本优势的冶炼 标的中国有色矿业（H）、铜陵有色、江西铜业（A+H）2）铝：本周铝价上行，沪铝收于 ...

2025 年 10 月 19 日 市场情绪波动提升，主力买入力量 指标五月来首次回落 ——量化择时周报 20251017 相关研究 联系人 沈思逸 (8621)23297818× shensy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 量化策略 目录 | 1．情绪模型观点：市场情绪得分小幅回升，情绪震荡波动加 | | --- | | 剧 4 | | 1.1 从分项指标出发：多项指标同步转弱，资金买入力量自四月末以来 | | 首次回落至布林带区间内 5 | | 2．其他择时模型观点：价值风格保持占优，模型切换提示大 | | 盘风格占优 10 | | 2.1 有色金属短期得分亮眼，模型切换提示大盘占优 10 | | 3．风险提示 14 | 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共15页 简单金融 ...

策略周报 中国资产的"黄金时代" 策略周末谈（1019） 核心结论 1、冰火转换时刻将至：中国资产重启"黄金时代" 2018 年中国进入工业化成熟期，制造业全球竞争优势积累大量国民财富，驱动 居民消费升级，宁组合/茅指数等制造/消费类资产开启"核心资产牛"。2022-2024 年美联储加息导致跨境资本和国民财富外流，梗阻"核心资产牛"。当前美联储 重启降息，跨境资本和国民财富将加速回流，中国制造/消费类资产将重启"黄 金时代"。本周 A 股风格切换，或预示着制造/消费"冰火转换"时刻将至。 2、中国资产"黄金时代"的基础：制造业出口竞争优势 过去几年制造业高度"内卷"反而能夯实其全球竞争优势，扛住 2025 年关税冲 击，继续积累国民财富。制造业对外净出口规模扩张，带来人民币汇率长期升值。 当前美联储重启降息，也将强化人民币升值趋势，驱动大量的跨境资本+国民财 富回流，中国居民的消费能力和消费意愿将会修复。在制造业强劲的出口竞争优 势"保驾护航"下，中国优质的制造/消费类资产的"冰火转换"时刻将至。 3、中国资产"黄金时代"的路径：A 股盈利和现金流修复 A 股盈利底部修复阶段往往对应着出口扩张和消费升级。（ ...

Valuation Summary - The current PE and PB ratios for major indices are as follows: - CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE is 21.3x, PB is 1.8x, at historical percentiles of 79% and 39% respectively - SSE 50 Index PE is 12.0x, PB is 1.3x, at historical percentiles of 65% and 43% respectively - CSI 500 Index PE is 33.4x, PB is 2.2x, at historical percentiles of 63% and 45% respectively - ChiNext Index PE is 41.3x, PB is 5.2x, at historical percentiles of 36% and 57% respectively - CSI 1000 Index PE is 45.7x, PB is 2.4x, at historical percentiles of 65% and 44% respectively - National 2000 Index PE is 58.9x, PB is 2.5x, at historical percentiles of 76% and 58% respectively - STAR 50 Index PE is 174.7x, PB is 6.1x, at historical percentiles of 98% and 67% respectively - North Exchange 50 Index PE is 67.4x, PB is 5.1x, at historical percentiles of 88% and 93% respectively - ChiNext Index relative to CSI 300 PE is 2.9x, PB is 3.5x, at historical percentiles of 22% and 56% respectively [1][2][4] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile historically include: Real Estate, Steel, and IT Services (Software Development) - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile historically include: Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the 15th percentile historically include: White Goods [1][2][5] Industry Midstream Sentiment Tracking New Energy - Photovoltaics: Post-holiday, downstream spot prices slightly declined. Upstream polysilicon futures prices increased by 6.3%, while spot prices remained stable. Midstream silicon wafer prices remained consistent, with potential production increases in Q4. Downstream battery cell prices fell by 0.5% [1][2] - Batteries: Cobalt prices rose by 9.8%, while nickel prices fell by 1.1%. Lithium prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 10.2%, while carbonate and hydroxide prices fell slightly. Strong demand for electrolytes in energy storage is pushing core material prices up [1][2] - New Energy Vehicles: In September 2025, retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles increased by 6.3% YoY, with new energy vehicle sales up by 15.5% YoY, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [1][2] Real Estate Chain - Steel: Rebar prices fell by 1.7%, with futures down by 2.1%. Daily crude steel production increased by 7.3% in early October, while steel product output decreased by 1.7% [2] - Cement: National cement price index fell by 1.2%, with insufficient demand to support price increases despite supply-side intentions [2] Consumer Sector - Pork: Average price of live pigs fell by 0.1%, while wholesale pork prices dropped by 4.4% [2] - Alcohol: Wholesale prices for premium liquor slightly increased by 0.01% [2] Midstream Manufacturing - Excavators: Sales in September 2025 increased by 25.4% YoY, driven by domestic infrastructure projects and equipment upgrades [2] Cyclical Sector - Precious Metals: Gold prices increased by 5.8%, with silver prices up by 6.5% amid macroeconomic uncertainties [2]