Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" and the rating is maintained [6]. Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment growth is expected to remain stable throughout the year, supported by the issuance of special bonds and the commencement of major strategic projects [3][19]. - The construction industry is anticipated to improve due to ongoing urban renewal and significant project launches, with a focus on low-valuation high-dividend stocks [12][14]. - The demand for AI applications is driving exponential growth in computing power, leading to increased investment in data centers and related infrastructure [20]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - From January to July, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 28.82 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. Excluding real estate investment, the growth rate was 5.3% [1][17]. - Narrow infrastructure investment grew by 3.2% year-on-year, contributing 43.0% to total investment growth, which is an increase of 6.0 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1][17]. Market Performance - The construction industry experienced a decline of 0.51%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index [21]. - The international engineering sector showed strong performance with a 4.25% increase [21]. Company Announcements - Significant contracts were awarded, including a 69.94 billion yuan contract for a water supply expansion project in South Africa by China Power Construction [32]. - China Metallurgical Group reported a new contract amount of 611.34 billion yuan for the first seven months of 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.5% [33]. Key Investment Opportunities - Recommended companies include China Communications Construction, China Railway Construction, and Xinjiang Communications Construction, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing infrastructure projects [3][19][12]. - The report suggests focusing on low-valuation construction state-owned enterprises and companies involved in infrastructure design and international engineering services [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates that Changjiang Infrastructure Group's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the year is HKD 4.348 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 1% [1] - The company has confirmed the completion of the sale of its UK Rails assets, with performance and merger progress aligning with expectations [1] Financial Performance - The interim dividend per share is HKD 0.73, an increase of HKD 0.01 year-on-year [1] - The forecast for the second half indicates a slight slowdown in profit growth from the UK business [1] Strategic Moves - The company is not expected to declare a special dividend from the sale of the UK Rails assets [1] - There are rumors regarding the company's withdrawal from bidding for the UK National Grid's LNG project, which will be closely monitored [1] Analyst Rating - The target price has been raised from HKD 59 to HKD 63.5, with a reiterated "Buy" rating [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The industrial production growth is differentiated, with the electronics, electrical machinery, and automotive sectors leading, contributing significantly to overall growth [1][2] - High-end equipment manufacturing, such as shipbuilding and mobile communication base stations, has seen a surge in output, while high-tech manufacturing is accelerating, particularly in integrated circuits [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Industrial Growth**: Out of 41 industrial categories, 35 reported growth with an overall growth rate of 8%, slightly lower than June's figures. Equipment manufacturing grew at 8.4%, consistently outperforming overall industrial growth for 24 months [2] - **Fixed Asset Investment**: The overall growth rate of fixed asset investment has slowed to 1.6%, with real estate being a major drag. Excluding real estate, the growth rate is 5.3%. Manufacturing investment remains relatively stable at 6.2% [3][4] - **Real Estate Challenges**: The real estate market is facing a negative cycle of weak sales, reduced construction starts, and investment contraction. From January to July, real estate investment fell by 12%, with a monthly decline of 17% in July [5] - **Consumer Retail Trends**: The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year, showing a significant slowdown. However, policies promoting the replacement of old appliances have positively impacted retail sales in categories like home appliances [6] - **Service Consumption**: Service consumption grew by 5.2% from January to July, with a notable increase in travel and leisure services during the summer [7] Additional Important Insights - **Economic Forecast**: The economic growth rate for the third quarter is expected to be significantly lower than the second quarter, with real estate continuing to be a major drag on the economy. However, the target of 5% annual growth remains achievable [8] - **US Economic Data**: Recent US economic data, including CPI and PPI, showed mixed results. The PPI exceeded expectations, leading to market volatility, while the core CPI remains resilient [9][10] - **Inflation Dynamics**: Current inflation in the US appears manageable, with service prices rebounding, particularly in air travel and medical services. However, the prices of tariff-sensitive goods have shown mixed trends [10][11][12] - **Retail Performance in the US**: US retail data for July showed a solid performance with a 0.5% month-on-month increase, driven by promotional activities in department stores, although service-related sectors remain weak [14] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and challenges of various industries, particularly in the context of economic data and trends.

Group 1 - Jiadian Co., Ltd. announced that its subsidiary, Harbin Electric Power Equipment Co., Ltd., has won a bid for the Shandong Haiyang Xinan Nuclear Power Project with a contract value of 608.98 million yuan [1] - In the past month, over 130 major contract announcements have been made by listed companies, involving more than 60 companies, indicating a robust activity in the infrastructure sector [1] - The infrastructure investment in the first half of the year has grown by 4.6% year-on-year, outpacing the overall fixed asset investment growth by 1.8 percentage points [2] Group 2 - Companies like Hengtong Optic-Electric have secured contracts for marine energy projects totaling 1.509 billion yuan, highlighting the emergence of new infrastructure projects in renewable energy and communication [1][2] - The government has fully allocated an 800 billion yuan construction project list, supporting various infrastructure initiatives, including rural road improvements [2] - The trend of large contracts in the infrastructure sector reflects a shift towards new development drivers, including big data, cloud computing, and semiconductors [2][3] Group 3 - Qidi Design signed a contract worth approximately 860 million yuan for the construction of a computing power and supercomputing center in Henan [3] - Companies are increasingly signing large contracts in the new economy sectors, such as automation and digitalization, indicating a growing demand for advanced technologies [3] - The number of overseas contracts signed by listed companies has increased, showcasing their efforts to expand into international markets [4] Group 4 - Zhongcheng Co. signed a contract for a photovoltaic project in Azerbaijan valued at approximately 853 million yuan, reflecting the international expansion of Chinese companies [4] - Enjie Co. has entered into a supply agreement with LG Energy Solution for lithium battery separator films, indicating a strong demand for high-end manufacturing products [4][5] - The improvement in Chinese companies' technological capabilities is enhancing their export competitiveness, contributing to the growth of overseas contracts [5]

Macroeconomic Insights - Economic growth in July showed an overall slowdown, with policy-driven sectors performing well due to equipment upgrades, appliance replacements, and major infrastructure projects [3] - Durable goods consumption and infrastructure-related manufacturing industries maintained high growth rates, while extreme weather, high base effects, and declining external demand hindered project construction and production in some sectors [3] - The real estate sector is still in a downturn, indicating that internal recovery momentum is not yet solid [3] - Future economic recovery requires continued and enhanced consumer stimulus policies, optimized funding allocation for infrastructure, and increased support for demand in the real estate market [3] Capital Market Strategy - The shift in valuation logic for the Chinese stock market is moving from economic cycle fluctuations to a decline in discount rates, with expectations for A/H stock indices to reach new highs [5][7] - Institutional changes are crucial for improving the investability of the Chinese stock market and altering societal perceptions of asset value [8][9] - Recent reforms aim to enhance investor returns, improve corporate governance, and encourage share buybacks, which are expected to increase investor confidence and market performance [9][10] - The establishment of a stable market mechanism is seen as a "firewall" that reduces risk perceptions and encourages long-term capital investment [10][11] Hong Kong Market Analysis - The Hong Kong stock market has underperformed since mid-June, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate and U.S. trade policies [15] - The widening interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the U.S. has led to liquidity tightening, negatively impacting stock performance [15] - The decline in popularity of key sectors and a slowdown in capital inflows have contributed to the weaker performance of the Hong Kong market [16] - Despite recent underperformance, the outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains positive, with expectations for recovery driven by AI applications and consumer trends [16]

Economic Indicators - As of August 17, 2025, the weekly ECI supply index is at 50.08%, up 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.89%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for the first two weeks of August is 50.07%, down 0.04 percentage points from July, and the demand index is 49.89%, down 0.03 percentage points from July[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.91%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.68%, unchanged from last week[6] Consumer Trends - As of August 10, 2025, retail sales of passenger cars recorded 452,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%, compared to a 7% increase in July[7] - The sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 2.826 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 17.7%, close to July's decline of 18.6%[7] Investment Insights - The operating rate of asphalt plants is at 32.90%, up 1.20 percentage points from last week, and the national cement dispatch rate is at 40.08%, up 0.85 percentage points from last week[25] - The area of land supplied in 100 major cities recorded 11.6853 million square meters, down 15.53% from the previous week[25] Export Performance - The export container freight index for Shanghai is at 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from last week, indicating a potential weakening in exports[31] - South Korea's export total for the first ten days of August shows a year-on-year decline of 4.30%, a drop of 13.60 percentage points from July[31] Monetary Policy - The ELI index as of August 17, 2025, is at -0.91%, down 0.12 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity in the economy[11] - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan in the week, with the 7-day SHIBOR rate rising from 1.4320% to 1.4650%[40]

Economic Performance - In July, China's industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.8% in the previous month and below the expected 5.8%[4] - The retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year in July, a decline from 4.8% in June and below the forecast of 4.9%[4] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) rose by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, lower than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.8%[4] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, up from 5.0% in June[4] Industrial and Investment Trends - The manufacturing sector's investment saw a significant decline, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of -0.3% in July, down 5.4 percentage points from the previous value[23] - Infrastructure investment also turned negative, with a monthly year-on-year decline of -5.1% in July, significantly lower than the previous month's performance[27] - The real estate development investment fell sharply, with a monthly year-on-year decrease exceeding four percentage points compared to the previous month[31] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The service retail sector showed resilience, with strong growth in categories like home appliances and cultural products, despite overall retail sales weakening[18] - The consumer confidence and spending power remain low, necessitating further policy measures to stimulate consumption[14] - Seasonal factors contributed to a slight increase in the unemployment rate, with the influx of new graduates into the job market exacerbating the supply-demand mismatch[33]

Consumption Data - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, slowing from 3.8% in the previous month[2] - Household deposits grew by 10.27% year-on-year in July, a slowdown of 0.51 percentage points from the previous month; household loans increased by 2.65%, down 0.33 percentage points[2] - The retail sales of petroleum and products showed negative growth, dragging down the overall retail sales growth by 0.44 percentage points[2] Real Estate Market - In July, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.09 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 8.4%, with the decline expanding by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month[15] - The average price of commercial housing fell by 2.4% year-on-year, indicating a continued downward trend in housing prices[21] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate development funding sources was 7.5%, with domestic loans down by 0.5 percentage points to 0.1%[26] Investment Trends - From January to July, national fixed asset investment totaled 288,229 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, slowing by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 3.2%, but the pace has slowed due to reduced government spending and early utilization of government bonds[28] - Manufacturing investment growth was 6.2%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous period, reflecting a slowdown in investment across various sectors[35]

Group 1 - The report highlights that consumer spending has weakened since peaking in May-June 2025, with retail sales growth for January to July 2025 at 4.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous period, significantly impacted by the restaurant sector, which saw a growth rate of 3.8% [2][3] - Industrial value-added growth for July 2025 was 6.3%, a decline of 0.1 percentage points from June, with production in "anti-involution" sectors like automotive and photovoltaic experiencing notable decreases [3][4] - Fixed asset investment growth has accelerated its decline, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 1.6% in July 2025, down 1.2 percentage points from June, driven by weak performance in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors [3][5] Group 2 - The bond market has shown a weakening in pricing based on fundamentals, with the yield curve flattening, indicating pessimistic expectations for the economy despite weak demand in the real sector [3] - The report anticipates that the 10-year government bond yield will range between 1.65% and 1.80% in August and September 2025, with conditions for further yield declines being more stringent [3] - The report notes that August is a peak supply month for government bonds, and if market adjustments worsen, there is a possibility that the central bank may restart bond purchases [3]

Economic Performance - July's economic performance reflects the resonance of weakened subsidies, tariff disruptions, and anti-involution policies, leading to compressed profits but maintained production intensity for cash flow purposes[4] - Industrial added value in July increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.8% in the previous month, indicating resilience in production despite tariff impacts[6] - Fixed asset investment in July decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, a significant drop of 5.2 percentage points, with manufacturing and real estate investments declining by 0.3% and 17.2% respectively[25] Policy and Market Dynamics - The Politburo meeting in July maintained a restrained demand policy while emphasizing the need for flexibility and foresight, suggesting potential future policy adjustments[4] - The subsidy for "old-for-new" consumer goods saw a decline in retail growth from 13.2% in June to 9.0% in July, indicating reduced consumer support for subsidized items[15] - Service sector production index grew by 5.8% year-on-year in July, contrasting with the weakening of goods consumption, suggesting a shift in consumer behavior[16] Investment and Consumption Trends - The production and sales rate of enterprises in July was 97.1%, the lowest in recent years, indicating a tightening in operational capacity[9] - The proportion of second-hand housing transactions in nine sample cities rose to 62.4%, up 6.4 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting a shift in the real estate market[29] - Manufacturing investment in July fell by 0.3%, a decline of 5.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by tariff uncertainties and anti-involution measures[28]