Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is still at the bottom, but the decline trend is slowing; the steel consumption of the automotive industry has declined for two consecutive months; infrastructure is providing support [10] - The current iron ore price has strengthened in the short - term due to negotiation events, but the supply - demand pattern of oversupply remains unchanged [27] - In the context of weakening steel export demand, the overall price of the black series may face significant downward pressure. The coking coal and coke prices have some support at the bottom but are restricted by the over - supply problem [43] - The cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel terminal demand and high plate inventory pressure limit their upward space [56] - The supply pressure of soda ash is continuous, and the price space is limited. The industry contradiction needs further accumulation [69] - The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory limit its price increase, while the demand remains to be verified [93] Summary by Category Steel - **Macro Data**: The new construction area of real estate from January to February was 5.084 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The steel consumption from January to February was 330,460 tons, at the lowest level in the same period over the years, but the decline trend has begun to stabilize. The automobile production from January to February was 4.024 million vehicles, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. The steel consumption in January and February showed a month - on - month decline. The infrastructure investment completion in February increased by 9.76% year - on - year [4][6][8] - **Price Data**: The closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts on March 18, 2026, and their price differences with the previous day are provided. The spot prices and basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions are also given [10][14] Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The iron ore price has strengthened in the short - term due to negotiation events, but the BHP's shipping gap to China may be strategic and less sustainable. The shipping volume has declined due to weather, and the freight increase is limited. The iron water production will increase with the resumption of production, but the terminal is weak and the inventory is high. The port inventory has increased seasonally, and there is a structural shortage of medium - grade ore resources [27] - **Price Data**: The closing prices, basis, and spot prices of iron ore contracts on March 18, 2026, and their changes compared with the previous day and the previous week are provided [28][30] - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average iron water production, port dredging volume, five - major steel apparent demand, global shipping volume, Australia - Brazil shipping volume, port arrival volume, port inventory, and steel mill inventory data from different time points are provided [39] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: From March to April, it is the verification period of terminal demand. The Middle - East shipping route has uncertainties, which may suppress China's short - term steel exports. The overall price of the black series may face downward pressure. Coking coal and coke are affected by overseas energy price increases, with some support at the bottom, but the over - supply problem restricts their price elasticity [43] - **Price Data**: The price differences between different contracts of coking coal and coke, the coking profit, and the ratios of main contracts on March 18, 2026, and their changes compared with the previous day and the previous week are provided. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and their import and export profits are also given [44][45] Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel terminal demand and high plate inventory pressure limit their upward space [56] - **Price Data**: The basis, price differences between different contracts, and spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese on March 18, 2026, and their changes compared with the previous day and the previous week are provided [57][61] Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The daily production of soda ash has reached a high of nearly 120,000 tons, with continuous supply pressure. The rigid demand is currently stable and weak, and there may be unexpected disturbances on the supply side. The inventory performance is better than expected. The price upward space is limited, and the downward space needs inventory accumulation to open. The long - term high - supply expectation remains unchanged [69] - **Price Data**: The closing prices, price differences between different contracts, basis, and spot prices of soda ash on March 18, 2026, and their changes compared with the previous day are provided [72] Glass - **Market Situation**: The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the daily melting volume is in a downward stage. The high intermediate inventory is a risk point. The supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory limit the price increase of glass, and the demand remains to be verified. The cost of petroleum coke has increased [93] - **Price Data**: The closing prices, price differences between different contracts, basis, and daily sales - to - production ratios of glass on March 18, 2026, and their changes compared with the previous day are provided [94][96]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [8] 2. Core View of the Report - In the first year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, there are still policy expectations, Sino - US trade consultations are progressing normally, and geopolitical conflicts have great uncertainties. The supply side of iron ore is constantly disturbed, and the iron ore price has strong support. However, the fundamentals in the off - season lack highlights, and the upside drive from the real - world end is limited. The prices of coking coal and coke fluctuate more with crude oil, and the price of glass and soda ash is under pressure. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the disturbances from the geopolitical end and the iron ore supply side [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrival rhythm fluctuated. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate; in the medium and long term, the high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure of iron ore will be greater [4][11] - **Scrap steel**: The supply - demand pattern of the scrap steel market has marginally improved, with demand recovering slightly faster than supply. The fundamentals provide some support for the price. In the short term, it is expected to follow the rise of finished product prices [4][13] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both supply and demand of coke increase, and the iron - making water production may recover faster. The spot price has strong support, and the futures price is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal [4][5][16] - **Coking coal**: The resumption of coal mines is still restricted, and the high import of Mongolian coal brings pressure. The spot price is unlikely to rise sharply. The futures price is affected by macro expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the geopolitical conflict continues, it may be strong; if it eases, it is expected to oscillate [5][17] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese silicon**: The supply - demand of the manganese silicon market remains loose, with high upstream inventory. There is resistance in cost transmission, and there is a risk of high - level valuation correction above the cost line [5][22] - **Silicon iron**: The current supply - demand contradiction of the silicon iron market is limited, but the continuous repair of profits may accelerate the resumption of production, making the supply - demand relationship gradually turn to looseness. There is a risk of high - level price correction [5][23] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has disturbance expectations, but the inventory of the middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If production and sales cannot improve continuously, high inventory will suppress the price [5][8][18] - **Soda ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [5][8][21] 3.5 Steel - The downstream demand is slowly recovering, and the cost has certain support. However, the steel inventory is high, and the upside of the price is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and peak - season demand [10] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 16, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures was 2607.75, down 0.63%; the commodity 20 index was 2943.75, down 1.02%; the industrial product index was 2578.45, down 0.05%. The steel industry chain index on March 16, 2026, had a daily decline of 0.50%, a 5 - day increase of 2.01%, a 1 - month increase of 2.69%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.40% [108][110]

黑色建材日报 2026-03-17 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3140 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 2 元/吨（-0.06%）。当日注册仓单 40125 吨, 环比增加 4574 吨。主力合约持仓量为 157.41 万手，环比减少 52715 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3180 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3250 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3299 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.121%）。 当日注册仓单 474583 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 118.3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated upward. The closing price of the main contract SA2605 increased by 2.82% compared to the previous week, reaching 1,277 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,255 yuan/ton, up 2.87% from the previous week. The conflict between the US and Iran continued to escalate, and the bullish sentiment in the market persisted. In terms of supply, there were few maintenance operations in soda ash enterprises recently, with high operating rates and high - level overall supply. The expected output next week is 810,000 tons, and the operating rate is 87%. On the demand side, the spot and futures purchase volume increased significantly recently, the overall downstream consumption remained stable, there was no obvious new production capacity, and the pressure on finished products and funds continued. The daily melting volume of float glass was 146,900 tons, a decrease of 150 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass was 89,400 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons. As of March 12, the inventory in soda ash factories nationwide was 1.9317 million tons, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous week, and the inventory was at the highest level in the same period in history. In general, the escalation of the US - Iran conflict boosted the sentiment of the overall commodities, and the soda ash is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend in the short term [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly View - The soda ash futures fluctuated upward last week, with the main contract SA2605 closing 2.82% higher than the previous week at 1,277 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,255 yuan/ton, up 2.87% from the previous week. The US - Iran conflict led to continued bullish sentiment. Supply was at a high level, with expected next - week output of 810,000 tons and an operating rate of 87%. Demand saw increased purchase volume, stable downstream consumption, no new capacity, and continued pressure on finished products and funds. Float glass daily melting volume decreased by 150 tons to 146,900 tons, while photovoltaic glass increased by 1,600 tons to 89,400 tons. Factory inventory decreased by 0.80% to 1.9317 million tons, at a historical high for the same period. Short - term soda ash is expected to fluctuate upward [3]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - **Likely to be beneficial**: Downstream float glass has few cold repairs, and the output remains stable [5]. - **Likely to be negative**: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. The second - phase production line of Yuanxing Energy has increased its operating load, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, so the output is expected to remain high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [6][7]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,242 | 1,220 | - 22 | | Current Value | 1,277 | 1,255 | - 22 | | Change Rate | 2.82% | 2.87% | 0.00% | [8] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,255 yuan/ton, up 2.87% from the previous week [14]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 94.20 yuan/ton, and the profit of the co - production process in East China is 86 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [17]. 3.6 Soda Ash Operating Rate, Production Capacity and Output - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 87% [20]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 809,200 tons, including 428,300 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output is at a historical high [22]. 3.7 Soda Ash Industry Production Capacity Changes - In 2023, the total new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons, including Anhui Hongsifang (200,000 tons), Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy (400,000 tons in the first - phase 1, 2, 3 lines and 1 million tons in other phases), Henan Lingshan (2 million tons in the fifth phase), and Chongqing Xiangyu (200,000 tons). - In 2024, the total new production capacity was 1.8 million tons, including Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy (1 million tons in the first - phase 4 line), Henan Jinshan (500,000 tons in the sixth phase), and Henan Zhongda (300,000 tons). - In 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons, including Jiangsu Lianyungang Debang (600,000 tons), Lianyungang Jianye (1.1 million tons), Hubei Shuanghuan Phase II (400,000 tons), Hubei Xindu (600,000 tons), Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy (2.8 million tons in the second phase), and Henan Jinshan (2 million tons in the seventh phase) [23]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Soda Ash Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 101.92% [26]. - **Soda Ash Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 146,900 tons, and the operating rate is 71.05% [29]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: No specific data provided in the given text. 3.9 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory in soda ash factories nationwide is 1.9317 million tons, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.10 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3032 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3087 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [35]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the petrochemical, chemical, and agricultural sectors, driven by geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices, which are expected to rise to $90-100 per barrel, with potential to exceed $110, leading to new highs in upstream sectors [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments Petrochemical Sector - **Upstream Benefits**: Companies in the upstream sector are expected to benefit from rising oil prices. If oil prices exceed $110, upstream companies may reach new highs [2]. - **Midstream Challenges**: Midstream companies face profit pressures due to cost transmission issues, necessitating a focus on companies with non-oil routes and strong inventory management [1][2]. - **Investment Opportunities**: - Companies sourcing raw materials outside the Middle East, such as Hengyi Petrochemical, are less affected by geopolitical tensions [2]. - Firms using non-oil technologies, like Baofeng Energy and Satellite Chemical, are also recommended due to lower cost increases compared to crude oil [2][3]. - Companies with strong inventory management capabilities, such as Hengli Petrochemical and Donghua Energy, are positioned to benefit from price fluctuations [3]. Chemical Sector - **Coal Chemical and Chlor-alkali**: Companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Luxi Chemical are expected to benefit from rising prices of coal chemical products, with PVC prices increasing by nearly 2000 RMB/ton [4]. - **Sulfur Resources and Fertilizers**: Tight sulfur supply due to refining constraints and rising demand for lithium batteries may lead to a prolonged super cycle. Recommended companies include YK International and Salt Lake Co. [6]. - **Polyurethane and Other Segments**: Companies like Wanhua Chemical are expected to see profit increases due to strong pricing power in MDI/TDI products [6][7]. Agricultural Sector - **Impact of Oil Prices on Agriculture**: Rising oil prices are expected to increase costs for fertilizers, which constitute about 20% of the average cost of major crops. This will likely lead to higher agricultural product prices [9]. - **Investment Opportunities**: - **Seed Industry**: Companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong are highlighted as beneficiaries of rising corn prices, which will boost seed purchasing [10]. - **Planting Industry**: Companies involved in wheat planting, such as Suqian Agricultural Development, are expected to benefit from rising grain prices [11]. - **Livestock Industry**: The rising cost of feed is accelerating capacity clearance in the pig farming sector, benefiting leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [11]. Additional Important Points - The geopolitical situation, particularly the Iran-U.S. tensions, is expected to prolong high oil prices, impacting the chemical industry by disrupting normal supply-demand rhythms [3][7]. - The chemical industry is likely to experience a prolonged cycle of high prices, with investment opportunities categorized into those directly benefiting from high oil prices and those driven by their own supply-demand dynamics [7][8]. - The overall trend in the chemical industry remains positive despite short-term fluctuations, with a focus on supply changes and capacity cycles [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the polyester sector, due to geopolitical conflicts, the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol are expected to rise. The cost of PTA is driven by the increase in crude oil and PX prices, and the supply of ethylene glycol is reduced, leading to a strong market trend [7][10][12]. - In the pulp sector, the short - term cost supports the price, but the demand suppresses it. The fundamentals have limited driving force, and the market will fluctuate with the sector [20]. - In the soda ash sector, in the short term, the soda ash futures price may fluctuate more due to macro - sentiment and geopolitical factors. In the long term, due to the weak fundamentals of oversupply and weak demand, the market still faces downward price pressure [60][62][80]. 3. Summary by Directory Polyester 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Last week, geopolitical conflicts caused large fluctuations in crude oil prices. The conflict in the Persian Gulf led to a suspension of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up PTA prices due to cost factors and causing PTA enterprises to reduce their loads. The supply of ethylene glycol decreased, and its price first rose and then fell, and finally rose again [6]. - This week, the price of crude oil will fluctuate widely due to the situation in the Middle East. The cost of PX will still be the main driving factor. The supply of PX may decrease, and the demand for PTA is expected to increase, so the PTA market is expected to rise. The supply of ethylene glycol will continue to decrease, and the market is expected to remain strong [7][10][12]. 3.2. Main Driving Forces - **Downstream Consumption**: The operating rate of terminal looms has increased, driving up the operating load of polyester. However, due to the high - level fluctuations in upstream raw material prices, downstream products' prices will continue to fluctuate sharply. The support from consumption for PTA and ethylene glycol is weak in the short term [8]. - **PTA**: Last week, the price of PX first rose and then fell and then rose again. This week, the price of PX is expected to be strong, and the PTA market is expected to rise. The estimated weekly output of PTA is about 1.5 million tons [9][10]. - **MEG**: Last week, the average operating load rate of the ethylene glycol industry decreased. The inventory in the main ports of East China decreased. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol improved significantly. This week, the supply of ethylene glycol will continue to decrease, and the market is expected to remain strong [11][12]. Pulp 3.1. Pulp Market Review and Outlook - As of Thursday, the 05 contract of pulp closed at 5,252 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45%. The spot prices of wood pulp in the market showed a differentiated trend. In the short term, the cost supports the price, but the demand suppresses it, and the market will fluctuate with the sector [19][20]. 3.2. Fundamental Changes - **Paper Pulp Shipment Volume of Major Producing Countries**: In December, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp and broad - leaf pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The ratio of global commodity chemical pulp shipment volume to production capacity increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [21]. - **Paper Pulp Import Volume**: In February, China's paper pulp imports decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. In November, the import volume of coniferous pulp and broad - leaf pulp increased compared with the same period last year [25]. - **Paper Pulp Inventory**: At the end of December, the inventory days of coniferous pulp of global producers increased, while that of broad - leaf pulp decreased. As of the end of February, the weekly paper pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased [32]. - **Downstream Market**: The prices of downstream base paper are mainly stable, and the enthusiasm of enterprises for raw material replenishment is not high, with light transactions [20]. Soda Ash 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of soda ash (SA605) showed a volatile trend. The price fluctuated greatly, with a weekly increase of 2.82%. On March 13, the position was 973,800 lots, with a daily reduction of 15,555 lots [57]. - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short term, the soda ash futures price may fluctuate more due to macro - sentiment and geopolitical factors. In the long term, due to the weak fundamentals of oversupply and weak demand, the market still faces downward price pressure. It is recommended that investors pay attention to inventory changes and device maintenance dynamics and control positions rationally [60][62][80]. 3.2. Soda Ash Market Situation - **Supply**: In the week of March 12, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of China's soda ash increased, and the weekly output increased. The supply pressure is significant, and the cost - profit relationship is differentiated, but it has not led to a contraction in supply [63][64]. - **Inventory**: In the week of March 12, China's soda ash enterprise inventory decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. High inventory has become the norm, and the supply - demand imbalance is serious [72][73]. - **Spot**: This week, the spot price of soda ash moved up slightly, and the performance among regions was more stable. The upward elasticity of the spot price is insufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [74]. - **Downstream**: This week, the demand for soda ash is weak, mainly for rigid procurement. The demand for float glass and photovoltaic glass is weak, and the recovery of the light - soda downstream is slow [78][79]. - **Summary**: In the short term, the soda ash futures price may fluctuate more. In the long term, the market still faces downward price pressure. The market deadlock needs to wait for the real capacity clearance on the supply side [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the sentiment in the soda ash market was strong. Due to the geopolitical conflict, both the futures and spot prices rebounded. However, restricted by the weak fundamentals, the market showed a wide - range oscillation pattern. The short - term rebound was driven by the geopolitical conflict (Iran situation) which pushed up natural gas prices, and the rising energy costs supported the soda ash price. The 05 contract price was lower than the 09 contract, showing a structure where the far - month contract was at a premium to the near - month contract, indicating that the industry still had expectations for the improvement of far - month supply and demand. The core reason for the lack of strong driving force in soda ash was the weak supply - demand fundamentals, with high supply, high inventory, weak reality, and no strong catalyst forming triple suppression. In the short term (1 - 2 weeks), the trend was expected to be oscillating and slightly strong, but the upward space was limited. In the medium term, it would be weakly oscillating with downward pressure, and the rebound height was restricted [3]. - The core of this week's soda ash futures (SA2605) was the triple game of cost support, high - inventory suppression, and sentiment drive. Geopolitical conflicts led to energy price fluctuations, which caused emotional resonance in the energy - chemical sector. With the sharp rise in futures prices, the market sentiment was strong, and some enterprises raised prices by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The trading situation was differentiated. The enthusiasm of futures - spot traders to buy increased significantly when the futures price was high, but as the price fell, the restocking sentiment declined, and the restocking enthusiasm of downstream enterprises was not good [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - This week, the soda ash futures (SA2605) showed characteristics of rising and then falling, wide - range oscillation, and intensified capital game. By March 13, the mainstream price of domestic heavy - quality soda ash was 1250 - 1300 yuan/ton [4]. Supply - This week, the domestic soda ash production was 80.92 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 tons or 0.27%. Among them, the production of light - quality soda ash was 38.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.62 tons, and the production of heavy - quality soda ash was 42.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40 tons. In 2026, the new production capacity continued to be released, and the pattern of loose supply remained unchanged [4]. Demand - This week, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 82.25 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.43%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 101.92%, a week - on - week increase of 8.60 percentage points [4]. Inventory - As of March 12, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 193.17 tons. Among them, the inventory of light - quality soda ash was 101.36 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 tons, and the inventory of heavy - quality soda ash was 91.81 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.14 tons [4]. Profit - As of March 12, 2026, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in China was - 26.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 56.45 yuan/ton. The profit of the combined - soda process (double - ton) was 166 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase. The cost side showed a downward trend [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The Iran geopolitical conflict has driven up the prices of crude oil and energy - chemical sectors, with the sentiment spilling over to coal and iron ore, leading to an increase in coking coal prices and iron ore shipping costs. Market rumors of China restricting BHP's iron ore procurement and post - holiday restocking demand from downstream have tightened the tradable inventory at ports, providing cost support. However, high inventory and high warehouse receipts of hot - rolled coils pose pressure, and steel exports face resistance due to rising oil prices and RMB appreciation, limiting the short - term rebound height [3]. - Iron Ore: Spot liquidity has tightened, with BHP Newman powder added to the spot restriction list, prompting urgent transfers by steel mills and driving up prices. The steel fundamentals are weak, squeezing blast furnace profits. There are doubts about the sustainability of BHP's shipping gap to China, increasing the probability of a short - term reversal [19]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Domestic coal mines are in the resumption phase, and Mongolian coal customs clearance has recovered rapidly, resulting in high supply pressure and intensifying the short - term oversupply of coking coal. The cost of coal for coke furnaces has loosened, slightly expanding coking profits, and rising chemical product prices have improved comprehensive profits, which may increase coke enterprise开工. From March to April is the verification period for terminal demand. The late Spring Festival has slowed down the resumption rhythm, and uncertainties in the Middle East route have suppressed steel exports. The black series as a whole faces significant downward pressure, and while there is support at the bottom for coking coal and coke, their upward elasticity is limited [30]. - Ferroalloys: In the short term, the cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but weak downstream steel terminal demand and high inventory pressure of plates may limit the upward space for ferroalloys [48]. - Soda Ash: The daily output of soda ash has returned to a high of 117,000 tons, with continuous supply pressure. Current rigid demand is generally stable and weak, but there may be unexpected disturbances on the supply side. Inventory performance is better than expected. If the futures price rises, there is some restocking space for middle - stream players such as those in the spot - futures market, but due to limited demand elasticity, the price increase space is expected to be limited. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation. In the medium - to - long - term, the high - supply expectation remains unchanged, waiting for further accumulation of industrial contradictions. Apart from the fundamentals, the overall valuation of soda ash and glass is not high, and they may be driven by other sectors [62]. - Glass: The cold - repair expectation for float glass continues, and daily melting is declining. However, high middle - stream inventory has always been a risk concern in the market, as once a negative feedback occurs, the spot pressure will be huge and the downstream may not be able to absorb it. There is also continuous news of ignition and cold - repair, and there are many new lines in Shahe waiting to be ignited. The expectation of supply recovery and high middle - stream inventory limit the upward space for glass, and demand needs to be verified. In addition to the fundamentals, macro and sentiment factors should also be considered, as it may be affected and driven [85]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts increased compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3,193 yuan/ton, up from 3,174 yuan/ton on March 12 [4]. - The month - to - month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts also changed slightly. For instance, the rebar 01 - 05 month - to - month spread decreased from 54 to 51 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the summary prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in various regions increased or remained stable compared to the previous day. For example, the summary price of rebar in China was 3,339 yuan/ton, up from 3,325 yuan/ton on March 12 [8]. - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts also changed. For example, the 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) increased from 46 to 57 [8]. - **Other Ratios**: - The 01 volume - rebar ratio was 125 on both March 13 and March 12 [13]. - The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4 on both March 13 and March 12 [16]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts increased compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the 01 contract was 758.5 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan from March 12 [20]. - The basis of iron ore contracts also changed. For example, the 01 basis was 38.5 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan from March 12 [20]. - **Spot Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the prices of various iron ore varieties in Rizhao increased compared to the previous day. For example, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 797 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan from March 12 [20]. - **Fundamentals**: - The daily average pig iron output on March 13, 2026, was 221.2 tons, down 6.39 tons compared to March 6 [24]. - The 45 - port desilting volume was 317.9 tons, up 6.82 tons compared to March 6 [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: - The month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke contracts remained stable or changed slightly. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 month - to - month spread was - 211.5 on March 13, the same as the previous day [34]. - The main coking profit on the futures market was - 31 yuan/ton on March 13, the same as the previous day [34]. - **Spot Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the prices of various coking coal and coke varieties remained stable or changed slightly. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1,450 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day [37]. - The import profits of different coking coal sources also changed. For example, the import profit of Mongolian coal (long - term contract) was 303 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: - On March 12, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 72 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan from the previous day [49]. - The silicon iron spot prices in various regions increased or remained stable compared to the previous week. For example, the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5,630 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan from March 5 [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: - On March 13, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 74 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous day [50]. - The silicon manganese spot prices in various regions increased or remained stable compared to the previous week. For example, the silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan from March 6 [50]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts increased compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the 05 contract was 1,277 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan from March 12, with a daily increase rate of 1.67% [63]. - The month - to - month spreads of soda ash contracts also changed. For example, the month - to - month spread (5 - 9) increased from - 66 to - 58 [63]. - **Spot Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the spot prices of heavy - soda ash and light - soda ash in various regions remained stable. For example, the heavy - soda ash market price in North China was 1,280 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day [63]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts increased compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the 05 contract was 1,112 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan from March 12, with a daily increase rate of 3.35% [86]. - The month - to - month spreads of glass contracts also changed. For example, the month - to - month spread (5 - 9) increased from - 117 to - 113 [86]. - **Sales**: - On March 12, 2026, the sales - to - production ratios of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 145, 120, 116, and 119 respectively [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts and iron ore supply disturbances have led to a strong cost side, with high energy valuations and tight liquidity expectations for some iron ore spot varieties. Although iron - water production has dropped due to environmental restrictions, there is an upward expectation during the peak season. The prices of iron ore and coking coal are likely to rise and difficult to fall, which boosts the sector's valuation. However, the off - season fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectations are cautious, with limited upward drive from the real end. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and iron ore supply disturbances [1][2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Short - term oscillation is expected, but the high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term, maintaining a loose pattern. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure will be large, and the medium - term performance is expected to be weakly oscillating [2][10] - **Scrap Steel**: The short - term supply - and - demand pattern of the scrap - steel market has marginally improved, with demand recovery slightly faster than supply. The fundamentals support the price. Driven by the rise in finished - product prices, scrap steel is expected to follow the upward trend, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the price rebound and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [2][12] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, although iron - water production is disturbed, there is still long - term rigid demand support. After the first round of price cuts, the possibility of continuous multiple - round cuts is small. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal. If the geopolitical conflict persists, it may be strong with energy prices; if it eases, it will oscillate [3][13] - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal - mine production is limited, but with high Mongolian coal imports, there is real - world pressure on the fundamentals. The spot market is expected to oscillate. The futures price is affected by macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the conflict persists, it may follow crude - oil prices; if it eases, it will oscillate [3][14] 3.3 Alloys - **Silicomanganese (MnSi)**: The market supply and demand are loose, with high upstream inventory. There is resistance in cost transmission, and there is significant selling - hedging pressure above the futures price. When the futures price rises above the cost line, there is a risk of a high - level correction [3][18] - **Ferrosilicon (FeSi)**: Currently, the supply - and - demand contradiction is not significant, but the continuous profit repair may accelerate the resumption of production, making the supply - and - demand relationship gradually loose. The current futures valuation is higher than the comprehensive cost, and attention should be paid to the risk of a high - level correction [3][20] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The current supply and demand are in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventory will always suppress prices, and short - term oscillation is expected [7][15] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply and demand are in surplus. Short - term oscillation is expected, and in the long run, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [7][17] 3.5 Steel - After the festival, downstream demand has gradually started, and price rebounds have stimulated the entry of futures and spot markets and rigid - demand restocking. The production of rebar has increased significantly, but the production of hot - rolled coils has decreased. The overall supply of the five major steel products is still low. Demand shows resilience but lacks highlights. Steel inventory continues to accumulate, but at a slower pace. The upward price increase is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and peak - season demand [9] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 12, 2026, the comprehensive index, special index (including commodity 20 index, industrial product index, PPI commodity index), and plate index (steel industry chain index) all showed varying degrees of increase [105][106]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass prices around 1000 yuan/ton and soda ash prices around 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton have limited downward space in the long - term [115]. - The market in the first half of 2026 may be a volatile one, with limited continuous downward space at low levels and limited upward space at high levels, but the second half can be more optimistic [115]. - With the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate and the contraction of the Sino - US interest rate spread at the macro level, the pricing logic of domestic asset prices has changed. Anti - deflation and anti - involution are the major trends, so the long - term trends of glass and soda ash should not be overly bearish [115]. - The glass industry may have clear anti - deflation and anti - involution measures in 2026, and the window period when leading stocks in the industry stabilize and rebound in the stock market may be the time for futures trading on anti - deflation and anti - involution [115]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Glass Glass Views - **Bearish Logic**: Post - holiday orders are scattered with payment collection pressure; anti - deflation and anti - involution may take a long time to implement, and the high premium of futures is incorrect; the high long - term premium of futures leads to high intermediate inventory pressure [4]. - **Bullish Logic**: War factors increase energy costs and lead to industry production cuts; current daily production capacity of 148,000 tons is lower than the average monthly demand in 2025; anti - deflation and anti - involution are trends, and there will be a switch from petroleum coke to natural gas in Hubei; the risk - return ratio is appropriate as prices are at a ten - year low and most devices are in the red; the real estate market has declined for 4 years, and the room for further contraction is limited [5]. Glass Trading Routes - **Bearish Trading Route**: Focus on delivery logic and futures - spot convergence logic. On March 9, the 09 contract futures premium reached 20%, and the 05 contract reached around 13%. Some manufacturers' inventories hit record highs. The trading strategies include buying spot and shorting futures, adjusting the futures/spot position ratio, and closing positions when the valuation reaches 1000 - 1020 yuan/ton [6][7]. - **Bullish Trading Route**: The narrowing Sino - US interest rate spread and the appreciation of the RMB lead to capital inflows. The pursuit of leading industrial assets boosts futures expectations. The investment strategies involve allocating multi - assets when the cost line is at par or slightly at a premium to futures, and focusing on policy - driven anti - deflation and anti - involution [9][11]. Glass Supply - Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 15,150 tons, with some planned for 2026 [39]. - Potential old - line restarts have a total daily melting capacity of 9,440 tons, also with some planned for 2026 [40]. - Potential cold - repair production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 11,620 tons, and some are scheduled for 2026 [41]. - The current in - production capacity is around 148,000 tons per day, and the peak in 2021 was 178,000 tons per day. Supply usually tends to restart from the second to the third quarter [42][43]. Glass Price and Profit - Prices in most areas are stable, with prices in Shahe at 1030 - 1090 yuan/ton, in Hubei at 1080 - 1120 yuan/ton, and in the Yangtze River Delta at 1260 - 1340 yuan/ton [55]. - The basis has strengthened due to the decline in futures prices. The profit of petroleum coke - fueled devices is about 27 yuan/ton, while the profits of natural gas and coal - fueled devices are about - 105 yuan/ton and - 36 yuan/ton respectively [56][59]. Glass Inventory and Downstream Production - Downstream production has just started, and short - term inventory still tends to rise, but recent sales have improved. Current inventory is high, and the key lies in whether the market can improve significantly from March to April [67][69]. - Regional arbitrage shows that price differences between regions have changed little [71]. - In 2025, a monthly demand of over 5 million tons led to a significant market increase, and in 2026, a monthly demand of over 4.7 million tons may lead to market stabilization [74]. Photovoltaic Glass - **Price and Profit**: The market was slightly weak in the first quarter. As of Thursday this week, the mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels decreased by 4.65% month - on - month, and that of 3.2mm coated panels decreased by 2.82% month - on - month [77][79]. - **Capacity and Inventory**: The capacity has slightly shrunk. There are 399 in - production production lines with a total daily melting capacity of 88,100 tons per day, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90%. The sample inventory days are about 42.08 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.96%. Historically, the photovoltaic market may improve after the second quarter, and inventory may start to decline [80][81][86]. Soda Ash Soda Ash Views - **Bearish Logic**: High supply and high inventory, with the average weekly output of heavy soda above 400,000 - 430,000 tons and the weekly rigid demand at 330,000 - 340,000 tons; the continuous high premium of futures will lead to future supply surplus in the futures market; downstream demanders in the industrial chain are in the red and cutting production [14]. - **Bullish Logic**: Anti - deflation and anti - involution are trends, with low profits, low absolute prices, low risks, and high potential returns; inventory is concentrated, the export market has improved, and the prices of light and heavy soda are the same; the large - volume warehouse receipts of the SA2509 contract failed to fully suppress the market [14]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - From historical data, there is often a maintenance peak from March to April. If the same peak occurs in 2026, the low - level supply of heavy soda may drop to 360,000 - 380,000 tons per week, but the market still tends to be in surplus. The key is whether the export market can provide an incremental demand of at least 100,000 tons per month [90]. - The capacity utilization rate of soda ash is 85.04%, down from 86.77% last week. The current weekly output of heavy soda is around 432,000 tons, and the inventory is about 1.9472 million tons, a 2.79% increase from last Thursday [94][96][98]. Soda Ash Price and Profit - The low - end price in Shahe is 1220 yuan/ton. The quotes of futures - spot traders have significantly increased, while the ex - factory prices of manufacturers have changed little. The ex - factory prices in North China are concentrated around 1250 yuan/ton, and those in Central China are concentrated at 1100 - 1180 yuan/ton [106]. - The futures price has declined, and the basis has strengthened [108]. - The soda ash market is increasingly showing a weak pattern, with a current weekly rigid demand of 330,000 tons and a weekly supply of 430,000 tons [114].