Group 1: Core Views on Pig Cycle - The stability of pig prices since the beginning of the year indicates a near balance between supply and demand, influenced by the number of breeding sows, with a 7% year-on-year decline in breeding sows correlating with stable pig prices [1] - The pig cycle consists of efficiency and breeding cycles, where the efficiency cycle reflects production efficiency affected by winter diseases, and the breeding cycle shows a strong correlation between the number of breeding sows and price changes [1][2] - The current phase is characterized by a downward trend in pig prices and capacity reduction, with attention needed on price declines, industry losses, and potential policy impacts [2] Group 2: Investment Outlook in Pig Sector - The pig sector is currently in a capacity reduction phase, which historically corresponds to strong stock performance [3] - Major stocks in the sector are at relatively low valuations, and factors such as price declines, disease situations, and policy changes could act as catalysts for stock price increases [3] - Selection of individual stocks should consider funding, cost, and growth balance, with a focus on companies with cost advantages likely to see long-term valuation increases [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is entering a weak pig cycle and will focus on quality improvement rather than expansion, while also seeking international development opportunities [2][5]. Group 1: Quality Improvement and Cost Reduction - As of the end of 2024, the company will have a breeding capacity of approximately 81 million heads per year, with 71.6 million heads marketed in 2014 [3]. - The company’s breeding costs have been decreasing, reaching around 12.2 yuan/kg in May, a decrease of nearly 0.2 yuan/kg month-on-month, primarily due to improved production performance [3]. - The company aims to achieve a cost target of 12 yuan/kg this year, with a significant reduction in costs already realized since the initial target of reducing costs by 600 yuan when the cost was around 16 yuan/kg [3][4]. Group 2: Feed and Technology Innovations - The company has been promoting low-soybean meal feed formulation technology, with the first phase of its synthetic amino acid project having an annual production capacity of 30,000 tons and currently operating at 80% capacity [4]. - The synthetic amino acids can replace soybeans, acting as a stabilizer against rising soybean prices [4]. Group 3: International Expansion - The company has initiated its international development strategy starting in 2024, with Southeast Asia identified as the first target market [5][6]. - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed with BAF Vietnam Agricultural Joint Stock Company, marking the first step in its overseas development [6]. - The company plans to leverage its technology, equipment, and management capabilities to provide production capacity output, including designing pig houses and training employees [6][7]. - The company has submitted an application for listing H-shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is expected to enhance its international presence and attract global investors [7][8].

Group 1: Pet Economy - The pet economy continues to show high growth, with over 400 pet brands achieving sales growth of over 100% during the "618" shopping festival, and pet transaction users increasing by 32% year-on-year, with new pet owners rising by 39% [3] Group 2: Pork Prices - As of June 20, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China was 14.22 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.43%. The average price of 15 kg piglets was 31.85 yuan/kg, down 3.16% week-on-week [4] - The average weight of market pigs was 128.28 kg, down 0.54 kg week-on-week, with a national frozen product inventory rate of 14.04%, up 0.15 percentage points [4] Group 3: Chicken Prices - As of June 20, the price of white feather broilers was 7.12 yuan/kg, down 2.06% week-on-week, while the price of chick was 1.86 yuan/bird, down 32.12% week-on-week [5][6] - The decline in chicken prices is attributed to cautious purchasing by distributors and losses faced by slaughter enterprises, leading to a sustained low price environment [5] Group 4: Grain Prices - As of June 20, corn prices averaged 2417.06 yuan/ton, up 0.47% week-on-week; soybean meal averaged 3015.14 yuan/ton, up 1.59%; and wheat averaged 2441.67 yuan/ton, up 0.46% [7] - Corn prices are supported by adverse weather affecting supply and traders' pricing strategies, while soybean meal prices are influenced by supply concerns from the U.S. and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [7]

半 n 市 场 与 周一还将有1000亿元国库现金定存到期。央行行长潘功胜表示,过去 年,央行坚持稳健的货币政策立场,从量价结构等多维度实施多项举 措,有效支持经济持续回升向好,维护金融市场稳定。同时,央行着力 完善货币政策框架:优化中间变量、培育政策利率、提升传导效率、丰富 政策工具箱并加强沟通与预期引导。货币政策框架转型是一个渐进持续 的过程,未来将持续评估并完善。 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | | | 动(%) | | 沪深300 | 3847 | 0.09 | IF当月 | 3804 | 0.2 | | 上证50 | 2674 | 0.31 | IH当月 | 2637 | 0.6 | | 中证500 | 5640 | -0.66 | IC当月 | 5588 | -0.5 | | 中证1000 | 6000 | -0.80 | IM当月 | રેત્રેર | -0.6 | | IF成交量 | 93277 | -20.6 | IF持仓量 | 213382 ...

金十图示：2025年06月23日（周一）富时中国A50指数成分股午盘收盘行情一览：银行股多数走高、酿酒股、汽车股、石油股全 线下跌 富时中国A50指数连续 电力行业 互联网服务 东方财富 长江电力 8 中国核电 1916.94亿市值 n in home 7457.91亿市值 3271.44亿市值 9.17亿成交额 3.74亿成交额 17.77亿成交额 9.32 20.70 30.48 +0.08(+0.26%) -0.07(-0.75%) -0.01(-0.05%) 食品饮料 证券 中信证券 国泰海通 海天味业 (D 2231.91亿市值 3841.49亿市值 3233.29亿市值 3.45亿成交额 6.13亿成交额 3.14亿成交额 18.34 25.92 38.22 +0.04(+0.15%) -0.10(-0.54%) -0.29(-0.75%) 消费电子 化学制药 工业富联 立讯精密 恒瑞医药 3981.70亿市值 2402.28亿市值 3398.83亿市值 21.38亿成交额 10.26亿成交额 8.31亿成交额 51.47 20.05 33.14 -0.29(-0.56%) -0.54(-2.62 ...

每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 6 月 23 日星期一 2012-01- 17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指下試 6 月低位 22,668 點：內地 5 月推出一籃子金融政策支持穩市場 穩預期，包括降準、降息、加推結構性貨幣政策工具等，市場預期為新一 輪政策周期開端，其他跟進政策將會適時加推；加上，中美在 5 月中旬於 瑞士日內瓦經貿會談後發布聯合聲明，雙方降低加徵關稅，互相保留加徵 10%關稅，美國對中國進口貨品關稅將由 145%降至 30%，中國對美國進 口貨品將由 125%降至 10%，為期 90 日。中美 6 月倫敦談判達框架協 議，後續關注 90 日對等關稅暫停期過後能否取長期協議。目前恒指估值 重返合理水平，惟以伊戰爭升級，避險情緒升溫，恒指或下試 6 月低位 22,668 點。 短期看好板塊 今日市場焦點 ➢ 美國 6 月標普全球製造業 PMI； 宏觀焦點 ➢ 美炸伊朗核設施 德黑蘭誓封海峽； 據報歐盟將限制中國競標醫療器材市場； 以舊換新"國補"將持續 中央資金將分批下達； 企業消息 ➢ 泡泡瑪特(9992)成立電影工作室 推動畫劇集《Labubu與朋友們》； 中國神華(1088 ...

2025 年 6 月 23 日 晨会速递 总量研究 【宏观】如何解读 5 月份财政数据？——2025 年 5 月财政数据点评 5 月份财政收支同比增速均较上月回落，主要关注以下三点：其一，财政支出仍较为 强劲，兜底"三保"支出力度较强，但基建支出同比增速回落幅度较大，需关注地方 投资动能和意愿表现；其二，非税收入同比增速继续回落指向地方资金环境持续好转， 但税收收入同比增速依然不高，在加强征管之外仍需提振价格表现；其三，土地市场 改善并不持续，指向房地产市场向下"惯性"仍在，积极财政政策仍需择机推出。风 险提示：政策落地不及预期，重大项目开工不及预期。 【宏观】美联储在等待关税"冲击"——2025 年 6 月 FOMC 会议点评 美联储在 6 月会议如期按兵不动、将继续观察，点阵图也并未调整 2025 年的利率预 测。观察 5 月以来的数据，关税对消费的冲击已经逐步显现，对就业造成了结构性的 影响，但对通胀的影响尚未体现出来。我们理解，美联储依然在等待关税对通胀的"一 次性冲击"，并权衡其对于经济和就业的冲击，才会决策是否要推动降息。 【策略】被动型资金和个人资金仍是资金面的主要变量——资金面系列报告之四 公 ...

金融工程 当前，上证 50 的隐含波动率为 11.85%，相对于上周下跌了 0.88%。上证 500 的隐含波动率为 14.35%，相对于上周下跌了-1.59%。中证 1000 的隐含波动率 为 18.06%，相对于上周下跌了 0.42%。沪深 300 的隐含波动率为 12.64%，相 对于上周下跌了 0.73%。 我们统计了最近信号的次数和胜率。2025 年 6 月 9 日到 2025 年 6 月 13 日正 面信号共出现了 2699 次，未来高点平均胜率为 28.25%，负面信号出现 3525 次，未来低点平均胜率为 71.88%。 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场形态周报（20250616-20250620） 本周指数普遍下跌 本周市场回顾与最新信号 从本周的指数表现来看，本周指数普遍下跌，其中沪深 300 下跌 0.45%，中证 500 下跌 1.75%，中证 1000 下跌 1.74%。 从宽基择时策略来看，上证 50、恒生可持续发展企业指数、恒生香港 35 出现 看多信号，其余宽基信号为中性。 从行业形态择时策略来看，家电、综合、通信、纺织服装、消费者服务、交通 运输、石油石化出现看多信号，其余行业信 ...

2025 年 06 月 23 日 开源晨会 0623 ——晨会纪要 | 沪深300 | 及创业板指数近1年走势 | | | 吴梦迪（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | | 创业板指 | | wumengdi@kysec.cn | | 64% | | | | 证书编号：S0790521070001 | | 48% | | | | 观点精粹 | | 32% | | | | 总量视角 | | 16% | | | | | | 0% | | | | 【宏观经济】科技与民生类支出提速——5 月财政数据点评-20250620 | | -16% | | | | 【策略】箱体震荡的突破契机，及当下的配置思路——投资策略周报-20250621 | | 2024-06 | 2024-10 | 2025-02 | | 【金融工程】稀土产业板块的资金行为监测——金融工程定期-20250620 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | | | | | | | | | 行业公司 | | 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | | | | 【商贸零售】618 电商高质增长，强品牌龙头及新锐功效品牌突围—— ...

【财报数据】 国泰航空(00293)前五个月载客量同比增长28.4% 中国天瑞水泥(01252)发布2024年度业绩，股东应占溢利2.79亿元 同比扭亏为盈 现代牧业(01117)发盈警 预期上半年净亏损约8亿-10亿元 【重大事项】 云知声(09678)6月20日至6月25日招股 预计6月30日上市 泰德医药(03880)6月20日至6月25日招股 预计6月30日上市 佰泽医疗(02609)每股发售价4.22港元 公开发售获25.92倍认购 三花智控(02050)以上限定价 公开发售获747.92 倍认购 药捷安康-B(02617)香港公开发售获3419.87倍认购 预期6月23日上市 吉利汽车(00175)拟参与设立合资公司，可加强在巴西的品牌影响力及扩大其市场覆盖范围 中国燃气(00384)为中燃宏明电力销售引资2.16亿元 持股比例摊薄至77% 先声药业(02096)：抗失眠症药物科唯可®获国家药品监督管理局批准在中国上市 潍柴动力(02338)拟分拆潍柴雷沃并于香港港交所主板上市 中国银行(03988)拟以自有资金向中银欧洲增资不超过等值3亿欧元 永泰地产(00369)拟4300万英镑出售Topwo ...