1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily morning observation of non - ferrous metals and precious metals on August 6, 2025, covering multiple metal sectors such as precious metals, copper, aluminum, etc. [1][2] Group 2: Precious Metals Market Review - London gold had a V - shaped reversal, closing up 0.22% at $3380.86 per ounce; London silver rose for the third consecutive day, closing up 1.06% at $37.81 per ounce. Affected by the overseas market, Shanghai gold's main contract closed up 0.01% at 784.4 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract closed up 1.15% at 9178 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index oscillated within a range and almost closed flat at 98.727. The 10 - year US Treasury yield temporarily stopped falling at 4.2021%. The RMB against the US dollar fell slightly, closing down 0.05% at 7.1834. [2] Important Information - Trump will announce drug and chip tariffs in the next week, with drug tariffs up to 250%. He will significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours and impose a 35% tariff on the EU if it fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US. The US 7 - month ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5 and the previous value of 50.8. The final value of the US 7 - month S&P Global Services PMI was 55.7, higher than the expected 55.2 and the previous value of 55.2. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 7.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 92.4%. [2] Logic Analysis - Due to the unexpectedly poor US non - farm payrolls data last week, the "strong reality" of the US economy's resilience has loosened. The newly released ISM and S&P services PMI point in different directions, and the precious metals market mainly trades towards weak expectations. [2] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, existing long positions can be considered to be held. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, buy deep out - of - the - money call options on dips. [4] Group 3: Copper Market Review - Last night, the Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78070 yuan per ton, down 0.52%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its positions by 1167 lots to 470,000 lots. The LME closed at $9634.5 per ton, down 0.65%. The LME inventory decreased by 14,275 tons to 153,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 1010 tons to 262,000 tons. [6] Important Information - The US 7 - month ISM non - manufacturing index was 50.1, lower than expected. Trump will announce drug and chip tariffs, increase tariffs on India, and impose a 35% tariff on the EU if necessary. Chile's copper exports in July were 179,996 tons, and copper ore and concentrate exports were 1,396,851 tons, with 40,943 tons of copper and 997,013 tons of copper ore and concentrate exported to China. [6] Logic Analysis - The supply of copper mines is disturbed, and the production of smelters at home and abroad is differentiated. The inventory of non - US regions is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. [7][9] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the short - term supply is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the support at 77,000 - 78,000 yuan per ton. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [10] Group 4: Alumina Market Review - The night - session alumina 2509 contract fell 3 yuan to 3207 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions had different changes, with the northern comprehensive spot price of alumina by Aladdin down 10 yuan to 3270 yuan, and the national weighted index down 10.6 yuan to 3289.3 yuan. [11] Important Information - The full - cost of the alumina industry in July was 2905 yuan per ton, down 66 yuan from the previous month, with a profit of about 275 yuan per ton. A mine's memorandum was revoked, and its shipping terminal was suspended. India traded 30,000 tons of alumina at an FOB price of $377.25 per ton. The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased by 6627 tons to 13,242 tons on August 5. The national alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, with an operating capacity of 94.75 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from last week, and an operating rate of 83.8%. [12][13][15] Logic Analysis - The theoretical supply - demand surplus of alumina has significantly expanded, the spot price is stable, and the inventory is increasing. Before the significant increase in warehouse receipts, the alumina price has certain support in the range of 3000 - 3100 yuan. [16] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the alumina price will oscillate above 3000 - 3100 yuan in the short term. Pay attention to the low - warehouse - receipt risk when entering the delivery month. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [16] Group 5: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract rose 30 yuan to 20,525 yuan per ton. On August 5, the spot prices of aluminum ingots in East China, South China, and Central China all increased. [18][20] Important Information - The White House issued an executive order to reset "reciprocal tariffs" on some countries, which will take effect on August 7. On August 5, the main market electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 0.2 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2362 tons to 44,287 tons. [20] Trading Logic - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is strengthening. The LME aluminum inventory is increasing slightly, and the domestic market is gradually returning to fundamentals. The aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and pay attention to the peak inventory in the off - season and the opportunity of the spread expansion. [20] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the aluminum price will oscillate narrowly in the short term. For the arbitrage strategy, consider a positive spread arbitrage when the spread between the first - and third - month contracts of Shanghai aluminum futures is between 40 - 70. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [21] Group 6: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 30 yuan to 19,955 yuan per ton. On August 5, the spot prices of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in different regions all increased. [23] Important Information - As of July 31, the weekly production of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 0.19 million tons to 13.98 million tons, and the total inventory increased by 0.27 million tons to 13.51 million tons. Some new projects in the new energy vehicle lightweight parts manufacturing are planned to be put into production. In July, the ADC12 industry's theoretical profit was 63 yuan per ton, and the profit per ton increased by 104 yuan compared with the previous month. [24][25] Trading Logic - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the import volume is low, the downstream demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the aluminum price. [26] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it will oscillate with the aluminum price. For the arbitrage strategy, consider a positive spread arbitrage when the spot price is at a discount of more than 300 yuan to the futures price. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [27] Group 7: Zinc Market Review - The overnight LME zinc market fell 0.15% to $2750 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2509 contract fell 0.07% to 22,300 yuan per ton. The Shanghai zinc index increased its positions by 2137 lots to 207,800 lots. The spot price in Shanghai was between 22,280 - 22,375 yuan per ton, and the downstream purchasing sentiment was poor. [30] Important Information - Western Mining's zinc production in the first half of 2025 was 62,875 tons, up 18.61% year - on - year, and Glencore's zinc production in the second quarter of 2025 was 251,600 tons, up 19% year - on - year. Glencore adjusted its 2025 zinc production guidance to 940,000 - 980,000 tons. [30][31] Logic Analysis - The supply of zinc concentrates is sufficient, the smelter production is active, and the consumption is in the off - season with obvious inventory accumulation. [32] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the short - term zinc price may oscillate. Consider shorting on rallies due to the increasing supply and off - season consumption. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [33] Group 8: Lead Market Review - The overnight LME lead market rose 0.61% to $1975.5 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2509 contract rose 0.24% to 16,755 yuan per ton. The Shanghai lead index reduced its positions by 283 lots to 112,500 lots. The SMM1 lead price fell 100 yuan per ton, and the downstream purchasing was mainly for rigid demand. [35] Important Information - Some regenerated lead smelting enterprises in East and Central China may adjust their scrap battery purchase prices if the lead price continues to weaken. The environmental protection work in Anhui may affect local regenerated lead smelting enterprises. [35][36] Logic Analysis - The supply of lead concentrates is tight, the price of lead - containing waste is high, the supply of primary lead is increasing, the production of regenerated lead is in a loss but still has an increment, and the downstream lead - battery enterprise purchasing has improved. [37] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the lead price may maintain a low - level oscillation. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [42] Group 9: Nickel Market Review - The overnight LME nickel price fell to $15,055 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 2172 tons to 211,254 tons. The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2509 fell to 120,500 yuan per ton. The spot premiums of different nickel products changed. [40] Important Information - The Indonesian government is promoting the use of nickel batteries, and the nickel benchmark price in Indonesia has increased slightly. The US Fed may cut interest rates. [40][41] Logic Analysis - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the market's trading of the US economic recession affect the nickel price. The nickel market has an oversupply expectation, and the inventory is slowly increasing. [43] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it will oscillate in a wide range. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, sell out - of - the - money put options. [44] Group 10: Stainless Steel Market Review - The stainless steel main contract SS2509 fell to 12,935 yuan per ton, and the index increased its positions by 3063 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are given. [46] Important Information - Zimbabwe plans to ban chromium ore exports, and the chromium ore inventory in China has reached a record high. [47] Logic Analysis - The market trades the US economic recession expectation. The cost of stainless steel has increased slightly, the production is expected to increase in August, the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. [48] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it will oscillate in a wide range in the short term. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. [48][49] Group 11: Tin Market Review - The Shanghai tin 2509 contract closed at 266,950 yuan per ton, up 0.3%. The Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 1105 lots to 47,716 lots. The spot price of tin ingots in Shanghai Metal Market increased, and the actual demand is still weak. [50] Important Information - The US 7 - month ISM non - manufacturing index was lower than expected, and Trump announced tariff plans. [50][51] Logic Analysis - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, which boosts the tin price. The LME inventory is low, the supply of tin mines is tight, and the demand in the photovoltaic and electronics industries is weak. [51] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the short - term fundamental driving force is insufficient, and the tin price will fluctuate with macro - sentiment. [52] Group 12: Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures rose due to the impact of coking coal, and the main contract closed at 8450 yuan per ton. The spot price of industrial silicon generally fell by 100 - 250 yuan per ton. [55] Important Information - Hesheng Silicon Industry will reduce industrial silicon production capacity. The production of DMC and polysilicon is expected to increase in August. [55] Comprehensive Analysis - If leading manufacturers resume production in August, there will be a slight surplus of industrial silicon; otherwise, there may be a supply - demand gap of 20,000 - 30,000 tons. The social inventory is high, and the spot is not tight. [55][56] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it may rise due to sentiment in the short term but will be weak after the sentiment fades. For the options strategy, there is no recommendation. For the arbitrage strategy, conduct a reverse spread arbitrage on the 11th and 12th contracts. [56] Group 13: Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures rose due to the increase in coking coal prices, and the main contract closed at 50,330 yuan per ton. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon are given. [58] Important Information - The MIIT issued a notice on energy - saving inspections for the polysilicon industry. [58] Comprehensive Analysis - The polysilicon production is expected to increase in August, and there may be a surplus of 15,000 - 20,000 tons. The expectation of polysilicon capacity integration is strengthening, and the expected futures price after integration is 60,000 - 65,000 yuan per ton. [58] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, hold long positions. For the arbitrage strategy, hold long positions in polysilicon and short positions in industrial silicon for the long term, and close the reverse spread arbitrage on the far - month polysilicon contracts. [59] Group 14: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2511 contract of lithium carbonate fell to 67,840 yuan per ton, and the index reduced its positions by 11,764 lots. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 1840 tons to 14,443 tons. The spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate decreased. [60] Important Information - Chile's lithium exports in July were 23,824 tons, with 20,930 tons of lithium carbonate, and 13,633 tons were exported to China. The new - energy vehicle wholesale forecast for 2025 was slightly adjusted. The production of some lithium mines is normal. Some new lithium carbonate production projects have been put into operation. [60][61] Logic Analysis - The supply - side news is bearish, the long - position funds are leaving, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. [62] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it will oscillate downward to find support. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, sell out - of - the - money call options. [65]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - **Precious Metals**: The unexpectedly low US non - farm payroll data in July and the downward revision of the previous value have strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. With the weakening of the US dollar and the decline in US Treasury yields, the cost of holding gold has decreased. Global central bank gold - buying demand, fiscal and monetary easing expectations, geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties are all factors driving the return of gold prices to fundamental strength [3]. - **Copper**: The recent decline in copper prices is due to the US adjustment of copper tariff policies. Although the tariff does not cover core upstream products, the high copper inventory in the US COMEX market may affect the price difference between LME and COMEX. The price of Shanghai copper is still closely linked to LME copper, and weak downstream demand is expected to emerge this week [16]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Macro factors have a negative impact on aluminum. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure. Alumina is expected to be weak in the short - term, while cast aluminum alloy has a relatively good fundamental situation, and its futures price generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply side of zinc is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the processing fee is expected to increase this month. The demand side is weak during the traditional off - season. In the short term, attention should be paid to macro data, market sentiment, and supply - side disturbances [61]. - **Nickel and Its Industry Chain**: Anti - involution sentiment has declined, and factors such as the US dollar index, US copper tariffs, and Sino - US economic and trade talks are suppressing the market. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines has loosened, and the downstream demand has improved. Nickel sulfate prices are firm, and nickel iron prices have adjusted. Stainless steel has limited decline due to multiple factors [77]. - **Tin**: The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is expected to start in late August at the earliest, which will have the greatest impact on the tin fundamentals, but may not affect short - term supply and demand. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the future [92]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are still short - term supply - side disturbances, and the production schedule in August is expected to be positive. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock state [108]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: The current macro - sentiment continues to affect the market, and the fundamentals remain unchanged. The industrial silicon market is expected to fluctuate, and the polysilicon market is expected to have a wide - range shock [118]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: The unexpectedly low US non - farm payroll data in July (73,000 new jobs) and the downward revision of the previous value have increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to 89.1%. The weakening of the US dollar and the decline in US Treasury yields have reduced the cost of holding gold, while long - term support comes from central bank gold - buying demand and fiscal and monetary easing expectations [3]. - **Price Data**: Various price data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver futures, including prices, price differences, and long - term trends, are presented [4][12][13]. Copper - **Price Influencing Factors**: The US tariff adjustment on copper products has affected copper prices. Although core upstream products are excluded, the high inventory in the US COMEX market may impact the price relationship between different markets. Downstream demand is expected to weaken [16]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper and London copper futures and spot are provided, including data such as the main contract, continuous contracts, and spot premiums and discounts [17][22][25]. Aluminum and Related Products - **Aluminum**: Macro factors are negative for aluminum. Although domestic demand is in the off - season and social inventory is accumulating, the low absolute inventory provides some support, and prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure [37]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina is high and in surplus, and inventory is rising. The warehouse receipt problem may be resolved in August, and prices may be weak in the short - term [37]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply of scrap aluminum may decline in the future, providing strong support for alloy prices. The demand from exchange - listed brands is good, and the futures price generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum [37]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot, as well as price differences between different contracts, are presented [38][42][48]. Zinc - **Price Influencing Factors**: The supply side is gradually changing from tight to surplus, and the processing fee is expected to increase this month. The demand side is weak during the off - season. Short - term attention should be paid to macro data and supply - side disturbances [61]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc futures and spot, including price differences between different contracts and spot premiums and discounts, are provided [62][70]. Nickel and Its Industry Chain - **Price Influencing Factors**: Anti - involution sentiment has declined, and factors such as the US dollar index and US copper tariffs are suppressing the market. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines has loosened, and downstream demand has improved. Nickel sulfate prices are firm, and nickel iron prices have adjusted [77]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures, as well as prices of related products such as nickel ore, nickel sulfate, and stainless steel, are presented [78][83][91]. Tin - **Price Influencing Factors**: The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is expected to start in late August at the earliest, which will have the greatest impact on the tin fundamentals, but may not affect short - term supply and demand. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate [92]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin and LME tin futures and spot, as well as prices of related products such as tin concentrate and solder, are provided [93][99][101]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Influencing Factors**: There are still short - term supply - side disturbances, and the production schedule in August is expected to be positive. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock state [108]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of lithium carbonate futures and spot, as well as inventory data, are presented [108][111][116]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Influencing Factors**: The current macro - sentiment continues to affect the market, and the fundamentals remain unchanged. The industrial silicon market is expected to fluctuate, and the polysilicon market is expected to have a wide - range shock [118]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures, as well as prices of related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, are provided [119][120][127].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon (SI): Oscillatory [10] - Polysilicon (PS): Oscillatory [12] - Lithium Carbonate (LC): Bearish [91] 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with short - term prices expected to oscillate due to factors such as factory resumption and demand changes in downstream industries [10]. - Polysilicon production increases due to the resumption of large - scale southwest production capacity, and downstream silicon wafer production schedules increase slightly. Short - term prices may oscillate, and future capacity clearance is expected to accelerate [12]. - The market sentiment for lithium carbonate has ebbed, and supply - side disturbances have been resolved. With limited demand growth and inventory transfer rather than consumption by end - users, short - term prices are expected to be weak [91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Non - ferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US dollar index is at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, up 1.04% weekly, and down 9.03% annually. Exchange rates, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel all show different price changes [7]. - **New Energy Metals**: Industrial silicon is at 8,500 yuan/ton, down 2.97% daily, 12.60% weekly, and 22.62% annually. Lithium carbonate is at 68,920 yuan/ton, up 0.94% daily, down 14.41% weekly, and down 10.61% annually [7]. 3.2 Part Two: Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 78,600 tons, up 4.59% week - on - week. Main production areas like Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia all show different degrees of production increases [10]. - **Demand**: In the polysilicon sector, weekly production is 27,700 tons, up 13.44% week - on - week, with inventory accumulation. In the organic silicon sector, DMC weekly production is 47,800 tons, up 4.82% week - on - week [10]. - **Inventory**: Explicit inventory is 696,600 tons, up 0.49% week - on - week, and industry inventory is 444,000 tons, up 0.25% week - on - week [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,109 yuan, down 0.14% week - on - week, and the profit per ton is 96 yuan, down 221 yuan/ton week - on - week [10]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 27,700 tons, up 13.44% week - on - week, mainly due to the resumption of production in Yunnan. 7 - month production is 106,300 tons, up 5.10% month - on - month, and 8 - month production schedule is 106,800 tons, up 5.74% month - on - month [12]. - **Demand**: Silicon wafer weekly production is 11.84GW, up 4.78% week - on - week, with inventory reduction [12]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory is 275,800 tons, up 0.15% week - on - week [12]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41,333 yuan, down 0.63% week - on - week, and the profit per ton is 3,417 yuan, up 379 yuan/ton week - on - week [12]. 3.3 Part Three: Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 17,300 tons, down 7.31% week - on - week. Different production methods (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake) show different production trends [91]. - **Imports**: In June, lithium carbonate imports were 17,000 tons, down 16.31% month - on - month, and lithium concentrate imports were 427,600 tons, down 17.25% month - on - month [91]. - **Demand**: In the lithium iron phosphate system, material weekly production is 69,200 tons, down 0.87% week - on - week. In the ternary system, material weekly production is 16,100 tons, up 1.07% week - on - week [91]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 141,700 tons, down 1.01% week - on - week. Warehouse receipt inventory is 6,600 tons, down 43.32% week - on - week [91]. - **Cost and Profit**: For lithium extraction from purchased ores, the cash production cost of lithium mica is 76,215 yuan/ton, up 2.96% week - on - week, and the production profit is - 7,136 yuan/ton, down 1,088 yuan/ton week - on - week [91].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Cautiously long [1] - Silver: Stabilize and test long [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Resistance on rallies [1] - Tin: Resistance on rallies [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Cautiously long [1] 2. Core Views - The weak US data has increased the expectation of interest rate cuts and the risk of stagflation, leading to an inflow of safe - haven funds and a significant increase in gold prices. The long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged in the long term [3][4]. - For copper, short - term supply - demand contradictions are due to seasonal factors and inventory pressure, while long - term contradictions lie in demand uncertainty and potential demand growth. After the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, the dollar index weakened, and copper prices rebounded [8][9]. - Zinc supply is abundant, and demand is weak during the off - season. It is recommended to hold short positions and seize opportunities to short on rallies [10][12]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to downstream weakness and inventory accumulation [13][15]. - Nickel prices face pressure due to weak supply - demand and inventory accumulation, and stainless steel also faces over - supply in the off - season [17][19]. - Lithium carbonate inventory has decreased, and with potential supply risks and improved demand, it is recommended to go long on dips [21][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Weak US data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the risk of stagflation reappeared. Safe - haven funds flowed in, causing a significant increase in gold prices [3]. - **Basic Logic**: US data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts; "reciprocal tariffs" are about to take effect; global gold demand is growing strongly. The long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged in the long term [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around 770 for gold in the short term. For silver, it has fallen back to the previous range, and it is recommended to enter long positions after stabilization [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and fluctuated narrowly [8]. - **Industry Logic**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are related to seasonal factors and inventory pressure. Medium - term contradictions are the coexistence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. Long - term contradictions are between demand uncertainty and potential demand growth [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, the dollar index weakened, and copper prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term and be bullish on copper in the long term. Pay attention to the price range of Shanghai copper [77500, 79500] and LME copper [9650, 9850] [9]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuated weakly [11]. - **Industry Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, processing fees are rising, and demand is weak during the off - season [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold previous short positions and take partial profits. Seize opportunities to short on rallies in the long term. Pay attention to the price range of Shanghai zinc [21800, 22600] and LME zinc [2650, 2850] [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina also showed a downward trend [14]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, costs have decreased, inventory has increased, and downstream demand is weak. For alumina, supply is abundant, and inventory is accumulating [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20000 - 20700] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then fell [18]. - **Industry Logic**: Nickel supply - demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Stainless steel has over - supply issues in the off - season [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel and pay attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118000 - 121000] [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduced positions for five consecutive days, with a significant decline in trading volume and a gain of over 1% [22]. - **Industry Logic**: The inventory has stopped increasing, and the supply - demand situation may improve. The compliance risk of mining licenses is a key factor [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are still expectations of supply speculation. It is recommended to go long on dips in the range of [68000 - 71500] [24].

Group 1: Report Industry and Overall Information - The report focuses on the precious metals and non - ferrous metals industry, including gold, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, and the silicon industry [2] Group 2: Gold Core View - Trump's tariff deadline approaching boosts risk - aversion sentiment, but the rebound of the US dollar index to 100 suppresses the gold price. The market continues to lower the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September. Global gold investment demand is strong, with a 78% year - on - year increase in Q2, and central bank gold purchases remain a long - term support. The market is cautious before the release of non - farm payroll data [3] Key Points - SHFE gold main contract price data is presented, along with COMEX gold price and gold - silver ratio data [4] - Gold long - term fund holdings, SHFE and SGX gold spot - futures spreads, and gold and US dollar index, gold and US Treasury real - yield relationships are shown [8][11] Group 3: Copper Core View - COMEX copper and LME, SHFE copper spreads still fluctuate, and the market needs time to determine a reasonable range. High copper inventory in the COMEX market may not flow out, affecting future imports. The price of Shanghai copper is closely linked to LME copper and depends on global macro - policies and expectations. Global tariff policies may impact copper demand and price [15] Key Points - Copper futures and spot data, including prices, daily changes, and price differences, are provided [16][19] - Copper import profit and loss, processing fees, and refined - scrap copper price differences are presented [27][31] - Copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory data are given [33] Group 4: Aluminum Core View - For aluminum, low inventory supports the price, but demand is weak and the macro - situation is unclear, so short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate. For alumina, short - term capital games intensify, and investors should control risks. Cast aluminum alloy is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [35][36][37] Key Points - Aluminum and alumina futures and spot price data, including spreads and basis, are provided [38][44][51] - Aluminum and alumina inventory data, including warehouse receipts and LME inventory, are given [57] Group 5: Zinc Core View - The supply side of zinc is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the demand side is weak during the off - season. In the short term, focus on macro - data, market sentiment, and supply - side disturbances [63] Key Points - Zinc futures price data, including spreads and basis, are provided [64] - Zinc spot price data, including spreads and LME spreads, are given [72] - Zinc inventory data, including warehouse receipts and LME inventory, are presented [76] Group 6: Nickel Core View - The fundamentals of the nickel industry have no significant changes. If nickel - iron prices decline, the supply of nickel - ice may decrease, supporting nickel prices. Stainless steel is supported by cost and inventory reduction, and sulfuric acid nickel has a price - holding sentiment [79] Key Points - Nickel and stainless - steel futures price data, including spreads and basis, are provided [80] - Nickel spot price, inventory, and related cost - profit data are presented [84][88][92] Group 7: Tin Core View - As the anti - involution heat fades, tin prices may decline slightly. The US copper tariff adjustment has little impact on tin, and the rising US dollar index lowers non - ferrous metal prices [93] Key Points - Tin futures and spot price data, including spreads and basis, are provided [93][98] - Tin inventory data, including warehouse receipts and LME inventory, are given [102] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Core View - There are still short - term supply - side disturbances. The production schedule in August is expected to be good. It is expected to maintain a wide - range fluctuation, and investors should pay attention to market changes and position risks [107] Key Points - Lithium carbonate futures price data, including spreads and basis, are provided [107][109] - Lithium carbonate spot price data, including various lithium raw materials and product prices, are presented [111] - Lithium carbonate inventory data, including warehouse receipts and social inventory, are given [115] Group 9: Silicon Industry Core View - The industrial silicon market is expected to fluctuate, and the polysilicon market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, mainly driven by macro - sentiment [117] Key Points - Industrial silicon spot and futures price data, including spreads and basis, are provided [118][119] - Polysilicon, silicon wafer, battery cell, and component price data are presented [126][127][128] - Industrial silicon production, inventory, and cost data are given [133][137][147]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The A-share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. Short-term risk of a pullback after a sharp rise should be vigilant, while the entry of insurance funds in the medium to long term is expected to enhance market stability. [2] - The WTI crude oil main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound, with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. The overall medium to long-term price center of crude oil is moving down. [3] - Gold prices have dropped to a three - week low. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce, and the potential boost to risk aversion sentiment from core PCE data and Sino - US trade negotiations should be monitored. [4][5] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level for silver, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] - Most chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, PVC, PP, plastic, etc. are expected to have short - term volatile operations, with attention to relevant influencing factors such as cost, policy, and market sentiment. [7][8][10][11] - For agricultural products, corn, peanut, and cotton futures prices are expected to be weak in the short term, while egg prices have limited downward space, and soybean meal may have a wide - range shock, and soybean oil may be strong in the short term. [18][19][20][21][25][26] - For metals, most metal products such as copper, aluminum, etc. have complex market situations, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different varieties. [27][28] - For black commodities, stainless steel may have a short - term correction, while hot - rolled coils, rebar, and iron ore may have short - term volatile operations, and coking coal and coke may be strong in the short term. [33][34][35][37][39] Summary by Directory Macro - The Politburo meeting released multiple signals, including activating the capital market, expanding domestic demand, and supporting innovation. The long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds has been implemented, and the proportion of equity investment is expected to increase. The lithium - battery industry's "anti - involution" policy is deepening. [2] - The A - share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. [2] Crude Oil - Summer demand supports oil prices, but OPEC's production increase plan, Fed meetings, and trade negotiations bring instability. The WTI main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. [3] - The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.1 million barrels per day, and OPEC + may increase production in July and August, leading to a relatively weak oil price in the medium to long term. [3] Gold - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the probability of a September rate cut, pushing up the dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. [4] - Gold prices dropped to a three - week low, but institutional willingness to buy on dips still exists. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce and relevant influencing factors. [4][5] Silver - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, suppressing the attractiveness of silver as a non - income asset. Trump's tariff on semi - finished copper indirectly dragged down silver. [6] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] Chemical - **PTA**: The spot price decreased, the processing fee was at a low level, the overall supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation. [7] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply became more relaxed, the inventory was at a low level, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation, with attention to macro - policies. [8] - **PVC**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand improved slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve significantly, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [10] - **PP**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [11] - **Plastic**: The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreased, the demand increased, the inventory decreased, the fundamentals had limited driving force, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [13] - **Glass**: The supply fluctuated slightly, the demand weakened, the inventory decreased, the supply - demand change was limited, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [14] - **Methanol**: The supply increased, the demand had contradictions, the inventory increased, the cost had support but the profit was difficult to sustain, and the futures price was expected to be weak in the short term. [17] Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The global and US yields are at high levels, but the ending inventory has decreased. The domestic market is in a state of alternating old and new grains, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term. [18][19] - **Peanut**: The estimated planting area is expected to increase. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [20] - **Cotton**: The global and US cotton production and ending inventory are expected to increase. The domestic supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short term. [21] - **Pig**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may oscillate in the short term. [22] - **Egg**: The production capacity is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the futures price has limited downward space. [24] - **Soybean Meal**: The international price is driven by tariffs and weather. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price may have a wide - range shock in the short term. [25] - **Soybean Oil**: The international market focuses on weather. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the futures price may be strong in the short term. [26] Metals - **Copper**: The US copper tariff event led to a decline in US copper prices. The domestic support policies are strong, and the copper market has complex game situations. [27] - **Aluminum**: The Fed maintained interest rates, the supply is close to the ceiling, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may be weak in the short term. [28] - **Alumina**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait for macro - guidance. [29] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost provides support, the supply is excessive, the demand is in the off - season, and it is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate. [30] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the price fluctuates greatly due to market sentiment. [31] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is expected to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [32] - **Polysilicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [33] Black - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support is weakening, the supply may decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and it may have a short - term correction. [34] - **Rebar**: The "anti - involution" policy is being implemented, the cost support is weakening, the demand has a slight recovery, and it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [35] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Similar to rebar, it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [36] - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand is supported, the inventory is at a low level, and it may oscillate in the short term. [37][38] - **Coal**: Coking coal supply may shrink, and coke prices may be strong due to cost and demand, but relevant risks need to be monitored. [39]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.3 in July, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, with the new orders index dropping to 49.4, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [1] - The National Council meeting approved policies to implement personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies as part of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [1] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - The three major U.S. stock indices declined, with significant pullbacks in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors, while the computer and communication sectors saw gains, with a market turnover of 1.96 trillion yuan [2][8] - The financing balance increased by 2.174 billion yuan to 1.970595 trillion yuan on July 30, indicating a growing interest in long-term capital allocation in the current low-risk interest rate environment [2][8] - The A-share market is viewed as having high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are expected to benefit from technology innovation policies [2][8] Group 3: Commodity Market Analysis - Glass futures continued to decline, with production enterprise inventories at 51.78 million heavy boxes, down 1.56 million boxes week-on-week, indicating a supply contraction and improved market expectations [3][13] - The pure soda ash futures also saw a decline, with inventories at 1.684 million tons, down 104,000 tons week-on-week, suggesting a similar trend of inventory digestion in the market [3][13] Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices experienced a rebound after a dip, while silver continued to decline, influenced by a divided stance within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions [4][15] - The U.S. economic data showed resilience, with a rebound in CPI, and ongoing pressure from former President Trump on the Fed to lower interest rates, contributing to the volatility in precious metals [4][15] Group 5: Industry News - In the first half of the year, China's renewable energy installed capacity increased by 268 million kilowatts, a year-on-year growth of 99.3%, accounting for 91.5% of the new installed capacity [7] - The new energy storage installed capacity reached 94.91 million kilowatts, showing a growth of approximately 29% compared to the end of 2024 [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic macro - policies are set to continue and increase efforts, with proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies to be implemented. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and the market is speculating about a possible September rate cut [1]. - In the long - term, A - shares offer good investment value. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to policy support, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 have defensive value [2][11]. - Gold and silver are likely to continue to fluctuate. Although there are long - term drivers, the high price makes upward movement hesitant [3][19]. - International oil prices have risen for three consecutive days. However, the economic data improvement may be overestimated, and attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [4][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The initial estimate of the annualized quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in Q2 was 3%, significantly exceeding the expected 2.4%. The annualized quarterly growth rate of the core PCE price index was 2.5%, down from the previous 3.5% but higher than the expected 2.3% [6]. - **Domestic News**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with the board delegation of the US - China Business Council, emphasizing the need to establish communication channels and maintain stable Sino - US economic and trade relations [7]. - **Industry News**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association plans to strictly control new production capacity of copper smelting and alumina, and guide the rational layout of new capacity for silicon, lithium, and magnesium [8]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.12%, the European STOXX 50 increased by 0.06%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.13%, the US dollar index increased by 1.06%, ICE Brent crude oil increased by 0.98%, and gold and silver prices declined [9]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices showed mixed performance. The previous trading day saw index differentiation, with small - cap stocks weakening. The bank sector has performed well since 2025, and it is expected that the proportion of long - term funds in the capital market will gradually increase. A - shares have high long - term investment value [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded significantly. The central bank increased open - market operations, and the short - term Shibor mostly declined. Overseas, the US GDP growth exceeded expectations, and the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Domestically, industrial enterprise profits improved, and the IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast. Short - term Treasury bond futures prices may stabilize [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices rose for three consecutive days. The US economic growth in Q2 exceeded expectations, but the improvement may be overestimated. US crude oil inventories increased, and attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [4][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell 0.9% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased slightly, while the overall operating load of methanol plants decreased. Coastal methanol inventories continued to rise, and the short - term trend is mainly bullish [14][15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures fluctuated during the day. Spot prices were stable. In the short - term, they will fluctuate widely, and the market is divided. The focus is on the process of fundamental repair [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded and then declined. The summer maintenance led to supply contraction, and inventories decreased. The short - term focus is on policy implementation and fundamental digestion speed [17]. - **Rubber**: The recent rainfall in the producing areas affected rubber tapping, supporting raw material prices. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [18]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices continued to decline. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and there were uncertainties about a September rate cut. The US economic data showed resilience, and the long - term drivers of gold still provided support, but the high price made upward movement difficult [3][19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. The US only imposed a 50% tariff on copper products, exempting refined copper. The processing fee for concentrates is low, and downstream demand is generally stable. Copper prices may fluctuate in a range [20][21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices closed lower at night. The processing fee for concentrates has been rising. Domestic demand shows mixed performance, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short - term [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices rose due to mining qualification issues. The demand in July continued to be strong, but the inventory increased. The short - term focus is on warehouse receipts, and the medium - term does not have the basis for a reversal [23]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by strong production momentum of steel mills, but the global iron ore shipment has decreased recently. The inventory at ports is decreasing rapidly, and the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [24]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the inventory is decreasing. Steel exports are facing challenges, but billet exports are strong. The short - term market is expected to be volatile and bullish [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, and the coke production improved. The inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased, while that in coal mines decreased. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish after adjustment [26][27]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean growth is good, and the futures price is under pressure. The domestic protein meal price is supported by concerns about soybean supply and the rise of rapeseed meal price [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean and palm oil futures were weak at night, while rapeseed oil fluctuated and closed up. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased, and the export decreased. The market is concerned about trade trends, which support the oil and fat sector [29]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the 10 - contract closed down 0.45%. The spot freight rate has begun to loosen, and the 10 - contract is at a deep discount, which provides some support. The market will gradually shift to the off - season freight rate game [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on July 31, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity's trend is affected by factors such as macro - economic policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand relationships [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: FOMC's decline releases hawkish expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][5][10] - **Silver**: Experiences a high - level decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][5][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: The implementation of US copper import tariffs puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: Shows a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][15][17] - **Lead**: An increase in inventory puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18][19] - **Tin**: Ranges within an interval, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][21][25] - **Aluminum**: Experiences a slight oscillation; Alumina's price weakens; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum's trend strength is 0, alumina's is - 1, and casting aluminum alloy's is 0 [2][27][29] - **Nickel**: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, and fundamentals limit the elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][34] - **Stainless Steel**: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][34] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Has a wide - range oscillation, and the mine - end disturbance has not materialized, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][35][37] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sentiment weakens, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38][40] Energy - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, shows a relatively strong oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][41] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The sentiment is realized, with a wide - range oscillation. Both have a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55] - **Power Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, and the price stabilizes with an oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][57][60] - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend continues, and it remains strong in the short - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's futures price shows a relatively strong oscillation, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise [2][4][52] Chemicals - **PTA**: Supported by cost, with a positive spread in monthly contracts [2] - **MEG**: The unilateral trend remains weak, with a reverse spread in monthly contracts [2] - **Rubber**: Oscillates [2][32] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Weak in the short - term, but the downside space narrows [2][34] - **Asphalt**: Follows the strong upward trend of crude oil with small - step increases [2][36] - **LLDPE**: The trend still faces pressure [2][38] - **PP**: The spot price oscillates with light trading volume [2][39] - **Caustic Soda**: Attention should be paid to delivery pressure [2][40] - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates weakly [2][41] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet remains stable [2][43] - **Methanol**: Oscillates under pressure [2][44] - **Urea**: The pressure gradually increases [2][46] - **Styrene**: Profits are compressed [2][48] - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [4][49] - **PVC**: Weakly oscillates in the short - term [4][50] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Supported in the short - term by the positive sentiment of crude oil and macro - economy [4][59] - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillates at a high level, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade progress [4][59] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans close lower, limiting the rebound of domestic soybean meal [4][61] - **Soybean**: Oscillates weakly [4][61] - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [4][63] - **Sugar**: Oscillates within an interval [4][65] - **Cotton**: The sentiment cools down, and Zhengzhou cotton futures decline [4][66] - **Eggs**: The spot price weakens [4][68] - **Hogs**: Attention should be paid to whether the early - month spot expectations can be realized [4][69] - **Peanuts**: The old crop has support at the bottom [4][70] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Hold 10 short positions [4][53] - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: Oscillate in the short - term [4][56] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillates at a low level with limited upward momentum [4][57] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillates relatively strongly [4][58] - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly [2][61]