Economic Goals - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set between 4.5% and 5%[6] - The budget deficit is proposed to be around 4%, amounting to approximately 5.89 trillion yuan[6] - The urban unemployment rate is targeted at around 5.5%[6] Policy Focus Areas - Emphasis on technological innovation with an annual R&D expenditure growth of over 7%[7] - The digital economy's core industry value-added ratio is expected to rise to 12.5%[7] - A commitment to reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP by approximately 3.8%[6] Market Strategy - Focus on four main lines: resource sectors influenced by geopolitical tensions, upgrading key industries like chemicals and machinery, AI infrastructure and hard technology, and service consumption sectors like aviation and hotels[2][9] - The capital market is expected to benefit from policies supporting technological innovation and industrial upgrades, particularly in green and digital economies[7][25] Calendar Effect on A-shares - Historically, A-shares exhibit a calendar effect around the Two Sessions, typically showing an "upward-shock-rebound" pattern[8][27] - Small-cap stocks tend to outperform large-cap stocks before the Two Sessions, while consumer sectors may show significant recovery post-meeting[8][29] Risk Factors - Potential geopolitical risks exceeding expectations[10] - Policy implementation may not meet anticipated outcomes[10] - Macroeconomic performance could fall short of expectations[10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the US-Iran conflict, oil prices are rising, the Fed's rate - cut expectations are weakening, and US bond yields are climbing rapidly. It is advisable to pay attention to domestic two - sessions policy signals and the change of the war situation and control risks [4]. - The economic recovery momentum needs further observation, and the domestic bond market is expected to continue its volatile trend, affected by stock market trends and inflation expectations [7]. - Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards precious metals, as short - term fluctuations are expected due to the adjustment of margin by CME and the geopolitical situation [10]. - The prices of most non - ferrous metals are supported by factors such as resource attributes and supply - demand relationships, but also face risks from geopolitical situations and market sentiment [13][15][18]. - The black - building materials sector is currently in a weak state, and the short - term core contradiction lies in inventory digestion and demand verification [32]. - The energy - chemical sector is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and different products have different investment strategies according to their supply - demand and cost situations [56][58][61]. - For agricultural products, different products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, and corresponding investment strategies are put forward [81][83][87]. 3. Summaries According to Different Categories 3.1 Macro - finance 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: Some flights from China to the Middle East have resumed, Israel will reopen its airspace on the 8th, US tech giants have signed a self - power supply commitment, the central bank will conduct 800 billion yuan of repurchase operations, and US economic data shows mixed results [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pay attention to domestic two - sessions policy signals and the change of the war situation and control risks [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The yields of treasury bond futures have minor changes, the government has set economic growth targets, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery momentum is uncertain, and the bond market is expected to continue its volatile trend, affected by stock market trends and inflation expectations [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver have declined, which may be related to the rise of US bond yields and the large - scale selling plan of the Polish central bank. CME has adjusted the margin of gold and silver futures, and global gold ETFs have seen continuous capital inflows [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, as short - term fluctuations are expected due to the adjustment of margin by CME and the geopolitical situation [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the Middle East war, copper prices have declined, LME inventory has increased, and domestic social inventory has also changed [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the risk preference is affected by the geopolitical situation, the key mineral resource attribute supports copper prices. The short - term price has support, and the reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 100,000 - 102,500 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum has fallen after rising, the inventory has changed, and the trading situation in the spot market is different [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is at a high level, the price is still supported by factors such as the uncertainty of the Middle East war and the supply risk [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of zinc has a slight increase, and the inventory and basis have changed [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry is weak, and the price may fluctuate widely during the conflict [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The price of lead has declined, and the inventory and basis have changed [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the lead ingot inventory has increased, the price is expected to stop falling and gradually recover [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has declined, and the price of nickel ore and nickel iron has remained stable [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the medium term, the price of nickel is expected to rise slowly, while in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate to digest inventory pressure [20]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has declined, the supply is tight, and the demand has not been effectively reflected [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market has a strong sentiment of going long on tin, but it should not blindly chase the high. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [21]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has increased, the production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - ore positive factors have been fully digested, and the price may fall back. Be cautious about going long [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has increased, the basis and inventory have changed [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start have reduced the inventory accumulation. The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to wait and see [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has declined, the inventory has decreased, and the raw material price has remained stable [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is increasing, but the market procurement atmosphere has improved. The price is expected to rise in a volatile manner [27]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy has fluctuated slightly, the inventory has decreased, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve after the festival. The short - term price support is strong [29]. 3.3 Black - building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have minor changes, and the inventory and position have also changed [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The macro - policy supports the demand for steel, but the current inventory is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [33][34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas supply is expected to recover, and the demand is affected by short - term production restrictions. The price is expected to fluctuate [34]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have increased slightly, and the spot prices are at a premium [36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, the prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate, and there is a risk of a phased decline. In the long term, there is a possibility of an upward trend [38][39]. 3.3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has increased, and the inventory has increased. The price of soda ash has increased, and the inventory has also increased [40][42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the soda ash market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock [41][43]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The price of manganese silicon has declined slightly, and the price of ferrosilicon has increased slightly. The technical forms of both have changed [44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate, and the black - building materials sector is in a weak state. Pay attention to the cost - push and supply - contraction factors [45][46]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has increased slightly, and the supply and demand are expected to increase. The price of polysilicon has increased slightly, and the inventory is high [47][49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and the price of polysilicon is expected to be under pressure [48][50]. 3.4 Energy - Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has a slight decline, and the price of butadiene rubber has increased. The开工 rate of tire enterprises has recovered, and the inventory has increased [52][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and consider hedging strategies [54]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has increased significantly, and the inventories of related refined products have changed [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a short - term bearish strategy, do long on the spread of different oil types, and short on the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil and the INE - Brent spread [56]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices and futures prices of methanol have changed [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current price has included the geopolitical premium, and it is advisable to take profits at high prices [58]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices and futures prices of urea have changed [59][60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, and it is advisable to short - sell [61]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before considering long - positions [63]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the price may rebound due to the cost sentiment of crude oil [65][66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a pressure of inventory accumulation, but there is an expectation of inventory reduction due to the tense situation in Iran. Pay attention to the opportunity of long - positions at low prices [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Observe the subsequent maintenance situation, and pay attention to the opportunity of long - positions following PX and crude oil [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX is in a state of inventory accumulation in the short term and is expected to turn to inventory reduction in March. Pay attention to the opportunity of long - positions following crude oil [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is supported by factors such as the reduction of geopolitical influence and the seasonal demand [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has decreased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term price is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and it is advisable to long - position the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [78]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs have different trends in different regions, and the supply is greater than the demand in most areas [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a bearish view on the near - term contracts and a relatively bullish but cautious view on the far - term contracts [81]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have minor changes, the supply is stable, and the inventory pressure has decreased [82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the current price is supported, there is a potential pressure on the medium - term price [83]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The predicted production of Brazilian soybeans has been reduced, and the export and inventory data of soybeans have changed [84][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of CBOT soybeans has strengthened, but the domestic soybean inventory is high. Wait for the price to pull back before buying [87]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export and production data of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia have changed, and the inventory of domestic oils and fats has decreased [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of oils and fats is driven by the rise of crude oil prices. It is advisable to buy at low prices [89]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand have changed, and the price of raw sugar is at a low level [91]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Do not be overly bearish on raw sugar. It is advisable to buy a small amount of long - positions at low prices in the domestic market [92]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The predicted production of global cotton has decreased, and the export and inventory data of cotton have changed [93]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures have increased in position. Pay attention to the downstream start - up in March, and it is advisable to buy at low prices [94].

Core Viewpoint - Yongjia Investment Group successfully issued a non-public corporate bond of 150 million yuan with a coupon rate of 2.23% and a term of 3+2 years, reflecting strong market recognition and effective financing strategies [2] Group 1: Company Overview - Yongjia Investment Group is a key player in infrastructure construction and transportation operations in Yongjia County, Wenzhou City, Zhejiang Province, also involved in the sales of chemical raw materials and products, as well as electricity production and supply [2] - Under local government leadership, Yongjia Investment Group has optimized its asset structure and improved operational efficiency, establishing itself as a significant local state-owned enterprise with strong market influence and sustainable development capabilities [2] Group 2: Bond Issuance Details - The bond issuance of 150 million yuan effectively broadened Yongjia Investment Group's direct financing channels and optimized its debt structure [2] - The successful issuance reflects the professional underwriting capabilities and efficient execution of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities will continue to leverage its full-chain investment banking service capabilities to provide tailored capital market solutions for local enterprises, supporting high-quality regional economic development [2]

Group 1 - The panic sentiment in the market has eased, leading to a shift towards technology growth stocks, with the STAR Market index rebounding while the oil and petrochemical sector has seen a pullback [1] - The uncertainty in the Middle East continues to impact the oil supply, which may affect short-term market dynamics, with potential for oil prices to rise significantly, influencing market sentiment and sector rotation [1] - In the medium to long term, the trend of A-shares remains upward, supported by increased household savings entering the market and a recovery in the performance of A-share listed companies [1] Group 2 - As March approaches, the annual report season will focus on high-performing sectors, with technology hardware, advanced manufacturing, and price-increasing cycles expected to show strong performance [2] - The trend of AI hardware remains established, with increasing token usage for major AI models, indicating a peak in AI applications by 2026, highlighting growth opportunities in this sector [2] - The domestic and overseas demand for new energy materials is rapidly increasing, leading to supply shortages and price hikes, with this trend expected to continue into 2026 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: LLDPE, PP, synthetic rubber, benzene, styrene, short - fiber, bottle chips, pure benzene [2][16][20][50][83][90] - **Neutral Outlook**: PX, PTA, MEG, paper pulp, glass, methanol, urea, soda ash, LPG, PVC, shipping index (European line), offset printing paper [2][10][30][37][40][46][52][57][67][70][85] - **Weak Outlook**: rubber, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil [2][13][68] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts significantly impact the energy and chemical markets, causing price fluctuations and supply - demand imbalances in multiple commodities [15][43][77] - Different commodities have varying responses to geopolitical events and market fundamentals, with some showing strong trends, some remaining stable, and others weakening [2] 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: High - level oscillation. Geopolitical conflicts increase costs. In the medium - term, the trend is strong, but volatility increases. It is recommended to reduce some long positions around 8200 - 8300 and reduce 5 - 9 spreads on rallies. The strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA can be maintained [10] - **PTA**: High - level oscillation. Increase in operating load. It is recommended to reduce some long positions around 5800 and reduce 5 - 9 positive spreads. The strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA can be maintained [11] - **MEG**: High - level oscillation. Supply tightens. It is recommended to exit long positions around 4200 - 4300 and expect support below 4000. Exit 5 - 9 positive spreads [12] Rubber - **Rubber**: Oscillating weakly. Overseas geopolitical disturbances lead to a shift from strength to weakness in the natural rubber market. The trend intensity is - 1 [13][15] Synthetic Rubber - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price center moves up. Short - term geopolitical conflicts lead to an expected increase in the valuation of the energy and chemical sector. The cost of butadiene is expected to be strong, driving up the price of synthetic rubber. The trend intensity is 1 [16][18] LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: The expected contraction of cracking supply continues. It is necessary to pay close attention to geopolitical factors in the short term. The trend intensity is 2 [20] - **PP**: C3 raw materials remain strong, and the reduction of PDH devices continues. The trend intensity is 2 [20] Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: Strong export expectations support the market. Geopolitical conflicts lead to an increase in prices, but domestic supply - demand contradictions still exist. The trend intensity is 1 [25][26] Paper Pulp - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillating. The price of broad - leaf pulp increases, but downstream demand is weak, and port inventory accumulates. The trend intensity is 0 [30][33][35] Glass - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The inventory pressure of float glass factories is high, and they focus on sales. The trend intensity is 0 [37][38] Methanol - **Methanol**: High - level oscillation. Geopolitical conflicts lead to price increases, but the fundamentals are loose. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, with an upper pressure level of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton and a lower support level of 2100 - 2150 yuan/ton. The trend intensity is 0 [40][43][44] Urea - **Urea**: Oscillating. Geopolitical conflicts make the energy and chemical sector strong, but price - limiting policies restrict the upside. The trend intensity is 0 [46][48][49] Styrene - **Styrene**: Strong - side oscillation. Geopolitical risks increase costs, and inventory pressure is reduced in March. It is expected to open higher and maintain a strong - side oscillation pattern. The trend intensity is 1 [50][51] Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little. The supply is loose, and the price is expected to remain stable. The trend intensity is 0 [52][54] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong. The trend intensity is 0 [57][61] - **Propylene**: Geopolitical disturbances on the cost side, and the fundamentals remain tight. The trend intensity is 1 [57][61] PVC - **PVC**: Range oscillation. Geopolitical factors increase costs, but the supply - demand fundamentals are not significantly improved. The trend intensity is 0 [65][66] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Maintaining a retracement trend and high - volatility in the short term. The trend intensity is - 1 [68] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Weak adjustment, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to decline. The trend intensity is - 1 [68] Shipping Index (European Line) - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: Pay attention to geopolitical sentiment disturbances. The short - term market is affected by geopolitical sentiment, and the trend is expected to be wide - range oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [70][77][81] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - **Short - Fiber**: Geopolitical risks are not eliminated, and it is strong in the short term. The trend intensity is 1 [83][84] - **Bottle Chips**: Geopolitical risks are not eliminated, and it is strong in the short term. The trend intensity is 1 [83][84] Offset Printing Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see. The market price is stable, and the trading is light. The trend intensity is 0 [85][86][88] Pure Benzene - **Pure Benzene**: Strong - side oscillation. Geopolitical factors drive up prices, and inventory shows a slight decline. The trend intensity is 1 [90][91]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is the main factor driving the strength of crude oil prices. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz has increased the expectation of production cuts in oil - producing countries, and the chemical industry as a whole is expected to continue the strong and volatile pattern, led by crude oil [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East continue. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz strengthens the expectation of production cuts in oil - producing countries. The Brent spread continues to strengthen, and the domestic spread shows high - level fluctuations. The price is expected to fluctuate. The influencing factors include the Middle East geopolitical situation, OPEC+ production policy changes, and Sino - US tariff policy adjustments [7]. - **Asphalt**: The geopolitical premium is released, but the profit is significantly compressed. The absolute price is overvalued, and the medium - and long - term valuation is expected to decline. The influencing factors are the sharp rise or fall of crude oil prices [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Driven by geopolitics, the futures price continues to rise sharply. In the medium and long term, the demand for fuel oil power generation in the Middle East is gradually replaced, which is a long - term negative factor. The short - term outlook is to pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the sharp rise of crude oil. Although it is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution, the current valuation is low. It is expected to fluctuate following crude oil [10]. - **PX**: The expectation of raw material supply interruption strengthens, and the short - term is expected to be strong. The medium - term logic of buying on dips remains, and the PXN is expected to be sorted out in the range of [220, 280] US dollars/ton [12]. - **PTA**: The market is worried that raw material risks will force PTA plants to reduce or stop production, and the basis strengthens significantly. It is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term [13]. - **Pure Benzene**: Driven by the rise of crude oil prices, although the inventory pressure is still large, the fundamentals in Q1 are improved compared with Q4. It is expected to be strong and volatile [17]. - **Styrene**: Affected by the rise of crude oil and the reduction of supply due to device maintenance, and the improvement of downstream demand, it is expected to be strong and volatile in March [19]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, the import volume in April is expected to decrease significantly. The short - term is expected to be strong, and the medium - term is to buy on dips [21]. - **Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: Driven by the cost, it is expected to be strong and volatile in the short term, and the processing fee has certain support below [23]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: Driven by the rise of raw materials, the market trading atmosphere recovers, and the absolute price follows the raw material fluctuations. The support for the processing fee below is enhanced [25]. - **Methanol**: The demand is weak, which drags down the geopolitical drive. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. The influencing factors include the sharp rise of coal prices, macro - policy benefits, supply - side disturbances, and downstream negative feedback [27]. - **Urea**: There is a coexistence of demand support and policy guidance. It is expected to fluctuate and sort out. The influencing factors include the sharp rise or fall of coal prices, macro - policy benefits, demand exceeding expectations, and policy control risks [29]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: Affected by the geopolitical situation and the possible reduction of PE imports, and the improvement of downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [32]. - **PP**: Affected by the rise of oil prices, the indirect boost of methanol and propane, and the improvement of downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [33]. - **PL**: Boosted by raw materials, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [34]. - **PVC**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, the supply reduction expectation of ethylene - based PVC increases. It is expected to be strong and volatile, but it should be vigilant against the weakening of the geopolitical conflict [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: Overseas production cuts boost domestic exports. It is expected to be strong and volatile. The influencing factors include poor demand, sharp decline in spot prices, macro - disturbances, and excessive replenishment in the middle and lower reaches [36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have different degrees of changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 3.8 with a change of 0.41 US dollars/barrel [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 109 yuan/ton with a change of 21 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt is 78750 tons [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are given. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 188 yuan/ton with a change of - 20 yuan/ton [40]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summaries are provided in the report for this part. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2510.23, up 1.04%; the commodity 20 index is 2869.81, up 1.11%; the industrial product index is 2430.86, up 1.36% [280]. - **Energy Index**: On March 5, 2026, the energy index is 1558.52, with a daily increase of 4.14%, a 5 - day increase of 31.66%, a 1 - month increase of 33.56%, and a year - to - date increase of 43.43% [282].

免责声明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响 因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 20260306申万期货品种策略日报-原油甲醇 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 董超 （从业编号F3030150 投资咨询号Z0012596） dongchao@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SC近月 | SC次月 | WTI近月 | WTI次月 | Brent近月 | Brent次月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 641.1 | 626.0 | 76.11 | 74.61 | 81.96 | 78.79 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 572.3 | 576.5 | 74.80 | 73.77 | 78.07 | 76.40 | | | 涨跌 | 68.8 | 49.5 | 1.31 | 0.84 | 3.89 | 2. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for the polyester bottle chip sector [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyester bottle chip market price has increased due to the strong cost push, with the domestic supply remaining at a low level and the demand side maintaining rigid demand. The report suggests holding long positions, while emphasizing the need to focus on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and relevant exchange policies [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On Friday night, the main contract rose by 24 yuan to 6,792 yuan/ton. The price of East China water bottle-grade bottle chips was 7,000 yuan/ton (+335), and the price of South China bottle chips was 7,050 yuan/ton (+350). In terms of positions, long positions increased by 259 lots to 67,900 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,048 lots to 72,900 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - Supply, cost, and profit: The domestic polyester bottle chip production was 316,800 tons, a week-on-week increase of 5,300 tons. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 68.4%, a week-on-week increase of 1.1%. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5,959 yuan, a week-on-week increase of 271 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was -13 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.6 yuan/ton [1] - Exports: In December 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 588,700 tons, an increase of 55,700 tons from the previous month, a month-on-month increase of 10.44%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative export volume was 6.4545 million tons, an increase of 607,000 tons from the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 10.38% [1] - Production in February 2026: The output of China's polyester bottle chip industry was 1.2314 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 11.93%. The capacity utilization rate this month was 66.48%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.70 percentage points [1] - Oil prices: Due to market concerns that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to supply constraints and the geopolitical risks show no sign of easing, international oil prices have risen. The NYMEX crude oil futures contract 04 rose by 6.35 US dollars/barrel to 81.01 US dollars/barrel, a week-on-week increase of 8.51%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 05 rose by 4.01 US dollars/barrel to 85.41 US dollars/barrel, a week-on-week increase of 4.93%. The China INE crude oil futures contract 2604 rose by 41.7 to 665.7 yuan/ton, and rose by 8.3 to 674 yuan/ton at night [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Over the weekend, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has seriously escalated, and domestic crude oil has soared. The domestic polyester bottle chip industry supply will remain at a low level, and the demand side will maintain rigid demand. However, driven by the strong cost, the polyester bottle chip market price has followed the increase. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and relevant exchange policies [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Hold long positions, with the risk lying in the development of geopolitical events [1]

Macro Overview - In February, China's bulk commodity price index increased by 10.9% year-on-year [6] - The average transaction price in the passenger car market in January was 137,600 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 3.91% [6] - A recent report predicts that the global humanoid robot market will reach USD 29.5 billion by 2036 [6] - In January, there were 5,690 newly registered renewable energy power generation projects nationwide [6] Industry Dynamics - Yageo Corporation has raised the prices of chip capacitors, effective next month, benefiting companies like Dongfang Investment (000962) and Hongda Electronics (300726) [8] - The large-scale expansion of the U.S. power grid is expected to benefit Chinese power grid export orders, with related stocks including Guodian Nari (600406) and Sifang Co., Ltd. (601126) [8] - The "brain" of humanoid robots will have national standards, accelerating the commercialization process, with related stocks including Lingyi Zhi Zao (002600) and Changsheng Bearing (300718) [8] Company Focus - Double Happiness Environmental Protection (001369): Its wholly-owned subsidiary, Double Happiness Chemical, plans to invest 542 million yuan to construct a second phase of industrial waste gas comprehensive utilization with an annual output of 100,000 tons of electronic-grade DMC and 30,000 tons of EMC/DEC [10] - Kangwei Century (688426): Its wholly-owned subsidiary, Jianwei Diagnostics, has received a class "medical device registration certificate" from the National Medical Products Administration for nine self-developed nucleic acid test kits for respiratory pathogens (fluorescent PCR method) [10] - China Merchants Jinling (601975): Its wholly-owned subsidiary, Nanjing Yangyang, has a contract price of 492 million yuan for the construction of three 6,600-ton stainless steel chemical tankers at China Merchants Shipbuilding Yangzhou [10] Market Review and Outlook - On March 5, the total trading volume of the two markets was 23.9 billion yuan, with 3,864 stocks rising and 1,227 falling. The net inflow of funds into the market was 327 million yuan, an increase of 24.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day [12] - The three major indices opened higher and showed a narrow range of fluctuations, forming a doji candlestick pattern. The yellow line representing small-cap stocks outperformed, while the white line representing large-cap stocks performed relatively weakly [12] - Market hotspots included significant net inflows in sectors like chips and data centers, while sectors such as panels and optical electronics saw substantial gains. Conversely, agriculture, oil and gas, and non-ferrous metals sectors experienced declines [12] - The market is currently in a low-volume rotation environment, making speculation more challenging, and caution is advised against excessive chasing of high-performing stocks [13]

Report Information - Report Title: Goldtrust Futures Daily Newsletter - Date: March 6, 2026 [1] - Investment Advisory Team Members: Yao Xinghang, Zhou Zhutao, Wang Jingzheng, Zhang Zhaoju, Zhong Zhumin, Lin Jingwei, Diao Zhiguo, Yang Yanlong, Cheng Wei [26] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The current core drivers of the crude oil price increase are the Middle East conflict and the obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. In the short term, it will fluctuate at a high level, and in the medium term, the price will depend on the supply-demand situation and the pace of geopolitical easing [2]. - A-share market opened higher in the morning,冲高 in the morning and fell back in the afternoon, showing a rebound trend. Technically, the small cycle at the 5-minute level is approaching the end, and it is expected that there will be a need for adjustment after the morning rally tomorrow [5]. - Gold showed a volatile trend during the day, and although it rebounded at the end of the session, there are signs of weakness in the short term [9]. - For iron ore, the supply is expected to be loose in the medium and long term, and the terminal demand needs time to start. Technically, the trend is unclear, and it should be regarded as a volatile market [11][12]. - For glass, it should be regarded as a wide-range volatile market. The daily melting is slightly reduced, and the factory inventory is accumulating during the seasonal off-season. The resumption of work progress of deep processing after the festival needs to be concerned. Technically, the recent trend is unclear [14][15]. - For methanol, about 60% of China's 14 million tons of imported methanol comes from Iran, and the influence weight of Iranian goods on the disk pricing is about 50%. Therefore, any change in Iran will cause obvious fluctuations in the domestic disk [17]. - For pulp, the trading sentiment in the spot market is average, the port inventory in China continues to accumulate, and it takes time to digest the inventory after the festival. Some paper mills have issued price increase letters, but the local inversion phenomenon of double-offset paper and coated paper is serious. The futures disk has shown a range-bound consolidation trend recently [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Short-term (1 month): Geopolitical premium dominates, with WTI ranging from $72 to $78 and Brent from $78 to $85. The key variables are the navigation of the strait and the escalation of the conflict. If the situation eases, the premium will quickly decline; if the blockade intensifies, Brent may reach $90. OPEC+ will maintain production cuts in March and slightly increase production in April, with short-term supply being tight and low inventory providing support [2]. - Medium-term (2 - 3 months): The supply-demand fundamentals will return to the dominant position. In Q1 2026, the global supply surplus reached its peak, with a daily surplus of about 2.9 million barrels and an annual surplus of 2.3 - 3.7 million barrels. Only China and India have moderate growth in demand, while Europe and the United States are stagnant, and the weak manufacturing restricts the upward movement. If the geopolitical situation eases, the oil price center will move down to $65 - $75; if the conflict continues, the high-level fluctuations will intensify [2]. - Trading strategy: Strictly control stop-loss in the short term and buy on dips [3] A-share Market - The A-share market showed a rebound trend today. Technically, the small cycle at the 5-minute level is approaching the end, and it is expected that there will be a need for adjustment after the morning rally tomorrow. The morning rally tomorrow is a good opportunity to short [5] Gold - Gold showed a volatile trend during the day, and although it rebounded at the end of the session, there are signs of weakness in the short term [9] Iron Ore - The supply from Australia and Brazil maintains a normal rhythm, and the mine production capacity is in the release cycle in the medium and long term, so the supply is expected to be loose. On the demand side, steel mills resume production after the festival, but the terminal demand needs time to start. Technically, the trend is unclear, and it should be regarded as a volatile market [11][12] Glass - The daily melting is slightly reduced, and the factory inventory is accumulating during the seasonal off-season. The resumption of work progress of deep processing after the festival needs to be concerned. Technically, the recent trend is unclear, and it should be regarded as a wide-range volatile market [14][15] Methanol - China imports about 14 million tons of methanol annually, accounting for slightly more than 10% of the total consumption (domestic production is about 92 million tons). About 60% of this 14 million tons of imports comes from Iran, and the influence weight of Iranian goods on the disk pricing is about 50%. Therefore, any change in Iran will cause obvious fluctuations in the domestic disk [17] Pulp - The trading sentiment in the pulp spot market is average, the port inventory in China continues to accumulate, and it takes time to digest the inventory after the festival. Some paper mills have issued price increase letters, but the local inversion phenomenon of double-offset paper and coated paper is serious. The futures disk has shown a range-bound consolidation trend recently [19]