Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 12 日星期四 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三尿素主力合约 2605 价格上涨 6 元至 1797 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1800 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 7469 手至 26.5 万手，空头持仓增加 3568 手至 27.9 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 21.56 万吨，较上一工作日持平；较去年同期增加 2.10 万吨；开工率 91.56%，较去年同期 86.92%上涨 4.64%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 83.47 万吨，较上周减少 8.38 万吨，环比减少 9.12%。尿素港口样本库存量 13.4 万吨，环比持平。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 41.3%，环比-1.6%，三聚氰胺开工率 66.4%，环比+2.8%。 4、印度 RCF 发布尿素进口招标，意向 150 万 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for increased dividend rates in the steel and aluminum sectors, supported by favorable conditions such as market value management, high dividend stocks being a core strategy for insurance capital allocation, and a gradual decline in capital expenditures within the industry [5] - Companies with high undistributed profits, ample cash reserves, and low debt ratios are identified as having strong dividend potential as they prepare for 2026 [5] Group 2 - Newhan New Materials (301076.SZ) plans to raise no more than 1 billion yuan to establish itself as a leader in the PEEK full industry chain, with funds allocated for projects including the production of high-performance resins and composite materials [5] - Kingsoft (3888.HK) is currently in a period of adjustment for its gaming business, but the stable growth of its office business, driven by AI and innovation, provides strong support for its valuation, especially given its substantial cash reserves and significant equity discount [5]

【环球时报驻法国特派记者 于超凡 环球时报记者 倪浩】欧盟日益陷入工业经济落后于中美的焦虑，频 频出台贸易保护主义色彩浓厚的政策，以期重振本土工业。据法国《世界报》报道，法国总统马克龙10 日接受多家欧洲媒体采访时表示，欧洲竞争力正面临中美"双重压力"，呼吁欧盟加大对生态转型、人工 智能与量子技术等关键领域的投入，避免未来数年被中美甩开。此番表态正值12日欧盟各国元首与政府 首脑在比利时阿尔登比森城堡举行非正式会议前夕。 马克龙强调，欧洲需要"保护"，需在清洁技术、化工、钢铁、汽车和国防等关键行业推行"欧洲优先"， 守护欧盟战略自主，否则欧洲企业将被中美竞争"横扫出局"。据英国《金融时报》报道，马克龙计划在 12日的欧盟领导人非正式会议上，敦促各方利用"格陵兰岛时刻"——即欧洲人意识到自身受威胁的契 机，加快推进拖延已久的经济改革，降低对中美两国的依赖。 据西班牙《国家报》10日报道，自2024年下半年本届欧盟委员会履职以来，恢复欧洲经济竞争力始终是 核心议题，在此次非正式会议上，该议题将成为最主要甚至几乎唯一的议程。 近年来，欧盟出台的一系列经贸政策带有明显保护主义倾向，不断加大对华限制，严重影响中欧正常经 ...

Group 1 - The resource sector has strengthened again, with multiple rare metal-themed ETFs rising over 3%, and mining, non-ferrous, gold, rare earth, and chemical ETFs generally increasing over 2% [1] - After significant gains, the film, media, and online consumption ETFs experienced a collective pullback, with the film ETF (159855) dropping nearly 6% [1] - AI application-related sectors saw a surge, with over 1.3 billion yuan net inflow into ETFs tracking the film and media indices on February 10 [1] Group 2 - Huatai Fund suggests gradually shifting focus to post-holiday market trends, emphasizing three main lines: AI hardware driven by overseas influences, high-end manufacturing in new energy and innovative pharmaceuticals, and domestic price increase chains in chemicals, building materials, and steel [2] - Fuguo Fund recommends focusing on sectors with high elasticity and growth potential, such as electronics, computers, and communications, which are sensitive to liquidity improvements and rising risk appetite [2]

● 本报记者 王鹤静 2月11日，资源板块再度走强，多只稀有金属主题ETF涨超3%，矿业、有色、黄金股、稀土、化工等主 题ETF普遍涨超2%。 影视、传媒、线上消费等主题ETF历经大涨后，2月11日迎来集体回调，前一日涨停的影视ETF （159855）下跌近6%。 此前，AI应用相关板块大涨。2月10日，跟踪中证影视指数的ETF净流入超13亿元，跟踪中证传媒指数 的ETF也净流入超6亿元。此外，旅游ETF（159766）已连续17个交易日维持资金净流入态势，基金份 额一路增长，目前已突破110亿份，规模突破94亿元。 宽基ETF在近期轮动行情下遭遇资金流出。2月10日，沪深300、中证A500主题ETF均净流出20亿元以 上，中证500、科创50主题ETF净流出均超10亿元。 临近春节假期，汇添富基金表示，随着宏观数据陆续披露、产业催化密集落地，叠加假期后风险偏好回 升、增量资金入场的日历效应，市场环境有望转向积极，持股过节具备较高胜率与赔率。 汇添富基金建议，可逐步转向布局节后行情，重点关注三条主线：一是受海外映射带动的AI硬件（北 美算力链、半导体产业链）；二是高端制造中的新能源（电池储能、电网、光伏）与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The merger of Pingmei Shenma Group and Henan Energy Group marks the establishment of a new energy and chemical industry giant in China, with an asset scale of nearly 600 billion yuan and annual revenue of about 300 billion yuan, aiming for high-end, intelligent, and green industrial upgrades [1] Group 1: Merger and Strategic Goals - The merger is not merely an asset consolidation but a systematic restructuring aligned with national strategies and provincial missions, focusing on future industrial layouts [1] - The new group will operate under a dual main business model of "energy + functional materials," with five A-share listed companies playing distinct roles in the industrial landscape [1] Group 2: Operational Efficiency and Cost Reduction - Pingmei Group has successfully reduced coal production costs from 82 yuan per ton to below 60 yuan through large-scale deep well filling technology, releasing 800 million tons of coal resources [2] - The company is expanding its quality coking coal reserves in regions like Xinjiang and Ningxia to ensure stable raw material supply for downstream industries [2] Group 3: Innovation and New Business Development - The new group aims to leverage its platform advantages to enhance governance, production operations, and investor relations, focusing on strengthening coal supply capabilities for regional energy security [3] - The company is transforming from traditional coal to high-end nylon and new energy materials, with significant cost savings achieved through innovative production processes [3][4] Group 4: New Energy and Material Ventures - Yicheng New Energy has established a complete industrial chain from coking coal to battery materials, with partnerships to develop green low-carbon energy projects [5] - Silane Technology has achieved breakthroughs in high-purity silane production, with an annual capacity of 6,100 tons, and is expanding into the semiconductor materials market [6] Group 5: Future Directions and Strategic Focus - The year 2026 is designated as a year for efficiency transformation, emphasizing resource allocation and operational efficiency to ensure sustainable growth [7] - The group plans to focus on energy and functional materials, integrating smart technology, green transformation, and innovative collaboration to become a world-class enterprise [7]

Group 1 - The A-share market continued to show a sideways trend, with traditional cyclical sectors like oil and petrochemicals rising, while technology sectors such as semiconductors and AI applications experienced a pullback, leading to a divergence in major index performances [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4131.99 points, up 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.35% to 14160.93 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.08% to 3284.74 points, with total trading volume in both markets reaching 198.43 billion yuan, marking the first time this year it fell below 200 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The chemical sector showed significant activity, with the basic chemical index rising by 1.40% and accumulating over 13% gains since the beginning of the year. Notable stocks included Baichuan Co., which achieved a four-day consecutive rise, and several others that hit the daily limit [2] - Baichuan Co. reported a cumulative increase of 107% since the beginning of the year, responding to institutional inquiries about the price trend of TMP (Trimethylolpropane), which rose from 8000 yuan/ton at the end of 2025 to 15000 yuan/ton currently, driven by strong demand and supply tightness due to production adjustments [2] Group 3 - According to a report from Zhongyin Securities, the chemical industry is expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated capacity under stricter energy consumption, carbon emission, and safety standards, transitioning from scale expansion to high-quality growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3] - The demand for chemical products is anticipated to maintain good growth, supported by the implementation of domestic demand expansion policies and the rapid development of downstream industries such as new energy, AI, semiconductors, and humanoid robots [3] Group 4 - Recent market trends indicate a rapid rotation among leading sectors, with value styles outperforming growth styles. Some institutions predict a potential style shift after the Spring Festival, suggesting a focus on technology growth sectors with price elasticity [4] - Historical data from 2010 to 2025 shows a high probability of style switching around the Spring Festival, typically favoring value and large-cap stocks before the holiday and shifting towards growth and small-cap stocks afterward [4]

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's Ministry of Industry and Foreign Trade has approved anti-dumping duties on color-coated steel plates imported from China and India for five years, while maintaining temporary anti-dumping measures on polyester fabric imports from China [1] Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - Brazil will impose a five-year anti-dumping tax on color-coated steel plates imported from China and India [1] - The temporary anti-dumping measures on polyester fabric imports from China will not be lifted [1] Group 2: Tariff Adjustments - Import tariffs on hydrochloric acid chloramine solution and integrated nasal spray devices have been reduced from 7.2% to 0% [1] - Import tariffs on various medications, including Amprenavir, have also been reduced to 0% [1] - Tariffs on polyester fiber yarn and titanium dioxide have been set to 0% due to supply shortages, with quotas of 4,000 tons and 5,000 tons respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - DuPont's stock price reached a historic high of $51.63 on February 11, 2026, driven by strong quarterly earnings and optimistic guidance for 2026 [1] Stock Price Movement Reasons - The fourth quarter performance exceeded expectations, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.46, surpassing analyst estimates of $0.43, and net sales of $1.69 billion meeting expectations, primarily due to growth in the healthcare sector and business restructuring [2] - The company provided a positive earnings outlook for 2026, projecting adjusted earnings per share between $2.25 and $2.30, above the analyst forecast of $2.14, and net sales guidance of $7.08 billion to $7.14 billion, exceeding the market expectation of $7.06 billion [2] - Morgan Stanley raised DuPont's target price from $44 to $52, further enhancing market optimism [2] - A market style shift occurred, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average performing strongly while the Nasdaq index weakened, benefiting DuPont as a leader in traditional industrial materials amid a rotation of funds towards value sectors [2] Financial Status - Despite a negative net profit of $114 million for the fourth quarter of 2025, the market focused on the company's adjusted profitability and future growth potential, with a gross margin maintained at 31.13%, indicating strong cost control [3] Future Development - The record high stock price of DuPont is attributed to a combination of exceeding performance expectations, optimistic guidance, favorable broker ratings, and market style shifts [4] - Investors should monitor the achievement of the 2026 performance targets and the progress of business restructuring, such as the spin-off of the electronics business [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the debate among investors regarding whether to hold stocks or cash during the upcoming Spring Festival, with many public fund institutions advocating for holding stocks based on historical data and current macroeconomic conditions [1][2]. - Historical data from FuGuo Fund indicates that the A-share market tends to perform weakly before the Spring Festival but shows significant strength afterward, with average returns of -2.20% in the second week before the festival and 2.03%, 0.86%, and 0.83% in the first, second, and third weeks after the festival, respectively [1]. - Public fund managers suggest that the current macro environment supports holding stocks, citing improved liquidity conditions and a stable external environment as key reasons [2]. Group 2 - Fund managers recommend focusing on two main investment directions: technology and domestic demand value, with specific sectors such as food, retail, tourism, and resources being highlighted for their potential benefits from the Spring Festival consumption [3]. - The expectation of a "red envelope market" post-festival is noted, with anticipated strong consumption data and increased market activity due to concentrated capital inflow and positive policy expectations [3]. - Investment strategies should be tailored to individual risk preferences, with higher-risk investors encouraged to maintain higher positions, while lower-risk investors may consider reducing exposure to mitigate potential volatility during the holiday period [3].