Market Overview - On February 13, 2026, a significant asset sell-off occurred in global financial markets, particularly impacting U.S. stock indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 669.42 points (1.34%) to close at 49,451.98, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 469.32 points (2.03%) to 22,597.15. The S&P 500 Index also declined by 108.71 points (1.57%) to 6,832.76 [1]. Commodity Market Impact - The sell-off extended to the commodity markets, with gold and silver experiencing substantial declines. COMEX gold futures fell by 3.08% to $4,941.4 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures plummeted by 10.62% to $75.01 per ounce [2][3]. Technology Sector Reaction - Major technology companies were severely affected, with Apple’s stock price dropping by 5%, resulting in a market value loss of over $120 billion (approximately 800 billion RMB). Other tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, Meta, and Nvidia also saw significant declines [3][4]. Chinese Concept Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, which includes many Chinese concept stocks, fell by 3% on the same day, indicating a collective sell-off in this sector. Over 40 Chinese concept stocks experienced substantial declines, with Tencent Music down 10.57% and Alibaba down 3.40% [3][4][6]. Employment Data Influence - The catalyst for this market turmoil was a strong U.S. employment report released on February 11, showing a non-farm payroll increase of 130,000 in January, significantly above the expected 70,000. This led to a shift in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with the probability of a March rate cut dropping from 19.6% to 6% [5][6]. Capital Expenditure Concerns - Major tech companies announced aggressive capital expenditure plans for 2026, with Alphabet projecting $175 billion to $185 billion and Amazon estimating $200 billion, both nearly doubling their 2025 expenditures. This raised investor concerns about the return on such investments, especially as many companies reported record profits but saw stock price declines [10][11]. Market Sentiment and Volatility - The market's fear and volatility increased sharply, with the VIX index rising significantly. The sell-off was exacerbated by algorithm-driven trading, which triggered stop-loss orders and led to extreme price movements [15][16][17]. Global Market Impact - The financial turmoil that began in Wall Street quickly spread to global markets, with Asian and European stock markets opening lower in response to the U.S. declines [18].

原油年内首次出现两周连跌，交易员权衡OPEC+可能扩大供应的前景、美国与伊朗的核谈判进展以及 近期整体市场的疲软。铝价下跌，之前有报道称美国可能计划缩减部分钢铝关税。金价走高，交易员在 数据显示通胀温和后加大对美联储降息的押注，一些投资者在周四的大幅抛售后逢低买入黄金。 原油：WTI年内首次两周连跌 交易员权衡伊朗局势及OPEC+增产前景 原油年内首次出现两周连跌，交易员权衡OPEC+可能扩大供应的前景、美国与伊朗的核谈判进展以及 近期整体市场的疲软。 WTI本周下跌1%， 周五收盘基本持平。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，美国已向中东增派一艘航空母 舰，以防未能与伊朗达成核协议。"如果我们没有达成协议，我们就需要它，" 特朗普在白宫表示。他 还补充称，他认为谈判最终会取得成功。交易员一直密切关注华盛顿和德黑兰之间紧张局势是否升温， 因为这可能对来自中东的供应构成威胁。 早些时候，油价下跌，与会代表称，OPEC+成员认为有空间在4月恢复增产，因其认为有关供应过剩的 担忧被夸大。与会代表称，该组织尚未承诺采取任何行动方针，也尚未在3月1日会议前启动正式讨论。 原油期货市场连续第二周下跌，终结2026年初以来的连涨势 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current oil prices have risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. Given the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a significant number of negative factors. With potential short - term geopolitical fluctuations overseas, previous short positions should take profits, and short - term observation is recommended [5]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differentials has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching, so short positions on rallies are recommended [8]. - For rubber, approaching the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce risk, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. During the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a hedging position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity reduction expectations, and export rush support PVC. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, positions can be gradually liquidated [21]. - For polyethylene, OPEC + plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene has declined, and there is still room for PE valuation to decline. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate is declining [24]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. The number of warehouse receipts is at a high level in the same period of history. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and there are opportunities to go long following crude oil on dips after the Spring Festival [30]. - For PTA, it enters the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to remain high, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [33]. - For ethylene glycol, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction under the pressure of inventory accumulation and high production. The valuation is moderately low year - on - year, and there is a risk of rebound [35]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 0.90 yuan/barrel, or 0.19%, to 476.80 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 8.53 million barrels to 428.83 million barrels, a 2.03% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Lunan, Henan, and Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 10.00 yuan/ton to 2231 yuan/ton, and MTO profit decreased by 10 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and other regions remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 46 yuan/ton to 1843 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 63 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market rebounded with the commodity market. Bulls were optimistic due to macro, seasonal, and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.94%, and that of semi - steel tires was 73.42% [11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 52 yuan to 4938 yuan. The overall operating rate was 79.3%, an increase of 0.3%. The downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a decrease of 3.3%. Factory inventory was 28.8 tons (- 0.2), and social inventory was 122.7 tons (+ 2.1) [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China rose 87.5 yuan/ton to 6103 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene fell 150 yuan/ton to 7550 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68%. Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.80 million tons to 10.86 million tons [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6787 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6585 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a decrease of 0.27%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.67 million tons to 37.97 million tons [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6693 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a decrease of 0.01%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 1.49 million tons to 41.58 million tons [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 62 yuan to 7202 yuan. China's PX load was 92%, an increase of 2.5%. Asian load was 83.7%, an increase of 1.3%. In early February, South Korea's PX exports to China were 17.5 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons year - on - year [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 40 yuan to 5220 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 25 yuan to 5205 yuan. The PTA load was 74.8%, a decrease of 2.8%. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 6 was 232.6 million tons, an increase of 21 million tons [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 41 yuan to 3723 yuan. The spot price in East China fell 13 yuan to 3639 yuan. The supply - side load was 76.8%, an increase of 0.7%. Port inventory increased by 3.8 million tons to 93.5 million tons [34].

Economic Data and Market Reaction - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 55,000, marking the largest increase in over a year [1][2] - The unemployment rate slightly decreased from 4.4% in December to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025 [2] - Despite the strong employment report, U.S. stock markets experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.13%, S&P 500 nearly flat, and Nasdaq Composite down 0.16% [1][4] Sector Performance - Semiconductor stocks performed exceptionally well, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising by 2.28% and Micron Technology's stock surging nearly 10% [1][5] - The healthcare sector added 124,000 jobs, double the normal level for January 2025, indicating strong growth in this industry [2] - Large tech stocks showed mixed results, with Google and Microsoft down over 2%, while Nvidia and Tesla saw gains of 0.78% and 0.8%, respectively [5] Commodity Market Movements - Gold and silver prices surged due to increased risk aversion, with spot gold rising over 1% to $5,083.7 per ounce and silver up over 4% to $84.3 per ounce [7] - International oil prices also increased, with WTI crude oil futures up 1.05% to $64.63 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions [8] Geopolitical Developments - U.S. President Trump emphasized the need for continued negotiations with Iran after a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, indicating a preference for diplomatic solutions [9][10] - The geopolitical climate remains tense, with military deployments in the Middle East and ongoing sanctions against Iran, which could impact market stability [11][12] Semiconductor Industry Insights - South Korea's semiconductor exports reached $6.73 billion in the first ten days of February, a year-on-year increase of 137.6%, reflecting strong global demand [13] - Micron Technology's stock price target was raised significantly by Morgan Stanley, indicating confidence in the company's future performance amid supply shortages [6][13] - The semiconductor industry is transitioning from quarterly business to long-term collaborative agreements, driven by increasing demand for advanced memory chips [14]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing trading volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The intraday price center dropped slightly to around 16,450 yuan/ton, and the price closed 0.51% lower at 16,450 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread narrowed to 95 yuan/ton. The rubber market has entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, trading by both sides has become more cautious. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures will maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing trading volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price reached a maximum of 2,259 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,230 yuan/ton, and finally closed 0.45% lower at 2,231 yuan/ton. The discount of the May - September spread narrowed to 30 yuan/ton. Dominated by the weak supply - demand fundamentals, trading by both sides has become more cautious, and methanol futures may maintain a volatile consolidation trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of increasing trading volume, reducing positions, fluctuating strongly, and slightly closing higher. The price reached a maximum of 486.4 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 476.2 yuan/barrel, and finally closed 0.19% higher at 476.8 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have heated up again, the premium of crude oil has become prominent. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the external market during the Spring Festival holiday and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons or 2.55%. The bonded area inventory was 99,000 tons, an increase of 1.38%, and the general trade inventory was 507,800 tons, an increase of 2.78%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouses decreased by 0.58 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.15 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.24 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points [9]. - As of February 5, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will further decline, with many all - steel tire enterprises gradually entering the Spring Festival holiday around February 10, and semi - steel tire enterprises mostly shutting down from February 13 to February 15 [9]. - In January 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively. The production increased by 0.01% year - on - year, and the sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. Month - on - month, they decreased by 25.7% and 28.3% respectively. Specifically, the passenger car market declined. In January, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.062 million and 1.988 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 4.1% and 6.8% respectively, and a month - on - month decrease of 28.4% and 30.2% respectively. The commercial vehicle market continued to improve. In January, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 388,000 and 359,000 respectively, a year - on - year increase of 29.9% and 23.5% respectively, and a month - on - month decrease of 6.8% and 15.6% respectively [10]. - In January 2026, China's Logistics Prosperity Index (LPI) was 51.2%, a slight month - on - month decline of 1.2 percentage points, still in the expansion range above 50%. Driven by the recovery of logistics prosperity, in January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), basically the same as in December 2025 and a significant increase of about 39% compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period last year. It is expected that the wholesale sales of the heavy - truck industry will increase slightly year - on - year in the first quarter of this year [10]. Methanol - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 87.98%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.95%, a slight month - on - month increase of 1.60%, and a significant increase of 11.78% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0611 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 23,300 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 18,700 tons, and a significant increase of 140,100 tons compared with 1.921 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 28.69%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1.29%. For dimethyl ether, the operating rate remained at 7.72%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.48%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 81.09%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2.28%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 58.15%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.01%. As of the week of February 6, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 79%, a slight week - on - week increase of 2.47 percentage points and a slight month - on - month decrease of 2.65%. As of February 6, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was - 55 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week recovery of 81 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month recovery of 401 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China remained at 961,400 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 32,400 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 197,900 tons, and a significant increase of 122,700 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of February 12, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 340,300 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 28,100 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 110,600 tons, and a significant decrease of 159,800 tons compared with 500,100 tons in the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 412, a slight week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of February 6, 2026, the average daily US crude oil production was 13.713 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 498,000 barrels per day and a slight year - on - year increase of 219,000 barrels per day, reaching a historical high [12]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 428.8 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 8.53 million barrels and a slight increase of 969,000 barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 25.113 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.071 million barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 100,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate remained at 89.4%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points, a slight month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year increase of 4.4 percentage points [13]. - As of February 3, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil futures were 124,565 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 27,583 contracts and a significant increase of 51,751 contracts or 71.07% compared with the January average of 72,814 contracts. On the other hand, as of February 3, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 244,306 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 26,344 contracts and a significant increase of 59,860 contracts or 32.45% compared with the January average of 184,446 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,400 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 16,450 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | +125 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,230 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | 2,231 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | +17 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 456.4 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 476.8 yuan/barrel | +0.0 yuan/barrel | - 20.4 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Relevant Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides charts on rubber basis, May - September spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][17][19][22][24][26]. - **Methanol**: The report provides charts on methanol basis, May - September spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][32][34][37][39]. - **Crude Oil**: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [43][47][49][51][54].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to stabilize gradually after the Spring Festival holiday, with investors advised to hold stocks during the holiday, focusing on domestic demand and emerging technology sectors [1][2] Group 1: Market Analysis - The A-share market is currently fluctuating around the 4100-point mark, with a noticeable decline in trading volume [1] - Positive factors for the market include the global market pricing in the potential hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, while domestic policies are shifting towards prioritizing domestic demand [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has emphasized efforts to maintain a stable and positive trend in the capital market, leading to a surge in stock buybacks by A-share companies [1] Group 2: Investment Directions - Two main investment directions are recommended: 1. Domestic demand value, with a high probability of outperformance post-holiday, focusing on sectors like food, retail, tourism services, hotels, and commodities such as oil, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [2] 2. Emerging technology, highlighting the competition between China and the U.S. in production efficiency, with attention on sectors like internet, media, computing, robotics, electronics, military industry, and energy storage [2]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 5077.85, with a change of 46.45 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 86.10, with a change of 3.82 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 2120.00, with a change of 25.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1733.00, with a change of 27.00 [1] - WTI Crude Oil's latest price is 63.96, with no change [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 13170.00, with a change of 94.00 [1] - The latest value of the US Dollar Index is 96.87, with no change [1] - The latest exchange rate of Euro to US Dollar is 1.19, with no change [1] - The latest exchange rate of British Pound to US Dollar is 1.36, with no change [1] - The latest exchange rate of US Dollar to Japanese Yen is 154.40, with no change [1] - The latest value of US 10 - year TIPS is 1.84, with no change [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 12014.43, with no change [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 342.10, with a change of 18.73 [2] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1081.32, with a change of 2.00 [2] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 16236.18, with a change of 19.73 [2] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 504.96, with no change [2] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2, with a change of 1.00 [2] - Another SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2, with no change [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current prices have factored in a high geopolitical premium. Given the potential over - expected production increase in Venezuela and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits at high prices and focus on mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a significant number of negative factors. With potential short - term geopolitical fluctuations overseas, it is recommended to take profits on previous short positions and adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [4]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production recovery at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is advisable to short on rallies [7]. - For rubber, approaching the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce risk, trade short - term on the market, set stop - losses, and avoid holding single - sided positions during the festival. Consider holding a long NR main contract and short RU2609 contract for hedging [12]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak, with strong supply and weak demand. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support the price, the weak fundamentals may affect the industry pattern. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so it is advisable to gradually take profits [19]. - For polyethylene, the OPEC+ plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The spot price of polyethylene has declined, and the overall demand is in a seasonal off - peak. The price is expected to be supported by the significant reduction of coal - based inventory [22]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, the short - term situation is stable. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is positive, and there are opportunities to go long following crude oil prices after the Spring Festival [28]. - For PTA, it is entering the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to remain high, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long at low prices [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is facing inventory accumulation and high production pressure. Although there is a risk of a short - term rebound due to geopolitical and cost factors, the supply - demand situation needs to be improved through increased production cuts [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: On February 12, 2026, the INE main crude oil futures rose 4.30 yuan/barrel, or 0.91%, to 476.80 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, rose 39.00 yuan/ton, or 1.38%, to 2,860.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 76.00 yuan/ton, or 2.32%, to 3,357.00 yuan/ton [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu remained unchanged, while those in Lunan, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia changed by 5 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, and 5 yuan/ton respectively. The main futures contract changed by 14.00 yuan/ton to 2,248 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 12 yuan [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China changed by 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively, while that in Hubei remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 12 yuan/ton to 1,797 yuan/ton [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market rebounded with the commodity market. The bulls were optimistic about the market due to macro - economic expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while the bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.94%, 1.47 percentage points lower than the previous week but 40.93 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 73.42%, 1.93 percentage points lower than the previous week but 44.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.1 million tons, a 0.9 - million - ton increase from the previous month, or 0.7%. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 1.09 million tons to 59.12 million tons, a 1.88% increase [9][10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 19 yuan to 4,990 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,750 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 240 (+1) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 113 (+4) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2,550 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 695 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 590 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, with the calcium carbide method at 80.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the ethylene method at 75.5%, a 0.5% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a 3.3% decrease from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 28.8 million tons (- 0.2), and the social inventory was 122.7 million tons (+2.1) [14]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 6,103 yuan/ton, an 87.5 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6,124 yuan/ton, an 87.5 - yuan/ton increase, and the pure benzene basis was - 21.5 yuan/ton, a 2.5 - yuan/ton reduction. In the spot - futures market, the styrene spot price was 7,550 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan/ton decrease, and the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7,497 yuan/ton, a 24 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 53 yuan/ton, a 174 - yuan/ton weakening. The BZN spread was 153.62 yuan/ton, a 12.5 - yuan/ton decrease. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 213.975 yuan/ton, a 44.125 - yuan/ton decrease. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton reduction. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, a 0.68% increase, and the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 million tons, a 0.80 - million - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79%, a 0.23% increase, the PS operating rate was 55.20%, a 0.40% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, a 2.98% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a 1.70% decrease [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6,787 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan/ton increase, and the spot price was 6,585 yuan/ton, a 90 - yuan/ton decrease. The basis was - 202 yuan/ton, a 102 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a 0.27% decrease from the previous period. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 37.97 million tons, a 5.67 - million - ton increase from the previous period, and the trader inventory was 2.32 million tons, a 0.23 - million - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 33.73%, a 4.03% decrease from the previous period. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 49 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan/ton expansion [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6,693 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton increase, and the spot price was 6,675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 18 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous period. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 41.58 million tons, a 1.49 - million - ton increase from the previous period, the trader inventory was 18.32 million tons, a 0.02 - million - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 6.37 million tons, a 0.03 - million - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 49.84%, a 2.24% decrease from the previous period. The LL - PP spread was 94 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan/ton expansion, and the PP5 - 9 spread was - 28 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan/ton reduction [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 44 yuan to 7,264 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 8 US dollars to 917 US dollars. The basis was - 39 yuan (- 8) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 3 - 5 spread was - 114 yuan (- 26). The PX operating rate in China was 89.5%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, and the Asian operating rate was 82.4%, a 0.8% increase. In terms of plants, Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting, Zhejiang Petrochemical was increasing production, and Fujian United Petrochemical's operating rate fluctuated. The PTA operating rate was 77.6%, a 1% increase, with Sichuan Energy Investment restarting, Dushan Energy under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton plant in Taiwan under maintenance. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 175,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of February, a 30,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of December was 4.65 billion tons, a 190 - million - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 297 US dollars (- 5), the South Korean PX - MX was 142 US dollars (+3), and the naphtha crack spread was 106 US dollars (+15) [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 30 yuan to 5,260 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 40 yuan to 5,180 yuan. The basis was - 73 yuan (+2), and the 5 - 9 spread was 24 yuan (- 4). The PTA operating rate was 77.6%, a 1% increase, with Sichuan Energy Investment restarting, Dushan Energy under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton plant in Taiwan under maintenance. The downstream operating rate was 78.2%, a 6% decrease, with Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament plant restarting and 4.75 million tons of chemical fiber plants such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong under maintenance. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 24% to 9%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 6 was 2.326 billion tons, a 210 - million - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 1 yuan to 365 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 16 yuan to 420 yuan [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 31 yuan to 3,764 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 29 yuan to 3,652 yuan. The basis was - 114 yuan (- 4), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 110 yuan (- 2). On the supply side, the ethylene glycol operating rate was 76.2%, a 1.8% increase, with the syngas - based method at 76.8%, a 4.3% decrease, and the ethylene - based method at 75.9%, a 5.4% increase. Among the syngas - based plants, Wonen was shut down and expected to restart in the short term, Guanghui restarted, and Sinochem reduced production due to an accident. In the oil - chemical sector, Zhongke Refining & Chemical and Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and Satellite switched production after shutting down. Overseas, China Taiwan's Zhongxian shut down, and Saudi Arabia's Sharq2 restarted. The downstream operating rate was 78.2%, a 6% decrease, with Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament plant restarting and 4.75 million tons of chemical fiber plants such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong under maintenance. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 24% to 9%. The import arrival forecast was 181,000 tons (two weeks), and the East China departure volume on February 10 was 12,400 tons. The port inventory was 935,000 tons, a 38,000 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based production profit was - 1,312 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 710 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 24 yuan. The price of ethylene decreased to 695 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal decreased to 580 yuan [32].

Inflation Data Summary - In January 2026, the CPI year-on-year growth was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.4% and down from 0.8% in the previous month[1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, down from 1.2% previously, while the month-on-month growth was 0.3%[1] - The PPI year-on-year change was -1.4%, better than the expected -1.5% and improved from -1.9% in the previous month[1] Structural Changes in Price Index - The new weight distribution for the CPI shows a shift towards services, with food and beverage (29.5%), housing (22.1%), and transportation and communication (14.3%) being the largest categories[2] - The weight of pork in the food category was increased from 1.4% to 1.9%, enhancing its contribution to CPI[2] - The average impact of the base period switch on CPI and PPI year-on-year was only 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points, respectively, ensuring continuity in price statistics[2] Seasonal and Structural Influences - January's CPI month-on-month performance was weaker than seasonal trends, recording only 0.2% due to the late timing of the 2026 Spring Festival[3] - Food prices were a significant drag on the index, with fresh vegetable prices dropping 4.8% month-on-month, while pork prices rose 1.2%[4] - Core CPI showed strength, driven by rising gold prices and the effects of "anti-involution" and "national subsidy" policies, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%[4] PPI Recovery and Market Signals - The PPI month-on-month growth accelerated to 0.4%, up from 0.1-0.2% in the previous quarter, indicating a structural recovery in industrial prices[6] - The broadening of price increases across 30 major industries, with 13 showing month-on-month increases, suggests improving profitability expectations in the manufacturing sector[8] - The report anticipates a potential rise in CPI to around 1.0% in February due to the Spring Festival purchasing effect, while PPI is expected to remain around -1.4% year-on-year[9]

Group 1 - Russia has surpassed Saudi Arabia to become China's largest crude oil supplier, driven by record imports fueled by Chinese demand [1][3] - Russian seaborne crude oil shipments to China reached a historical high of 1.86 million barrels per day, a 46% year-on-year increase [3] - The shift in energy exports towards Asia, particularly China and India, is a response to Western sanctions, with expectations of continued growth in Russian energy exports to China [3][4] Group 2 - The increase in Russian crude oil supply to China is occurring amidst declining demand from India and pressure from the U.S. on India to limit Russian oil purchases [3][4] - The import of Urals crude oil, a major Russian export grade, has reached its highest level since mid-2023, indicating a deepening energy cooperation between Russia and China [4] - Experts suggest that the evolving energy relationship between Russia and China is reshaping the oil trade landscape in Asia, with China benefiting from discounted supplies despite limited risks [4]