Oil Market - The core variable for oil price trends remains the ability to maintain the smooth operation of the Strait of Hormuz, with geopolitical conflicts showing no signs of easing, leading to potential price volatility [2][22] - The International Energy Agency's member countries are releasing strategic oil reserves as an emergency buffer, but this is not a sustainable supply source, and there is still a need for replenishment after the release [2] Precious Metals - Precious metals continue to show weakness, influenced by hawkish signals from central banks like the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, with expectations that the Fed may not lower interest rates this year [3] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to keep precious metals under pressure [3] Base Metals - Copper prices have declined due to negative risks from the Middle East situation and increasing inflationary pressures, with domestic demand providing some support [4] - Aluminum prices have retreated as domestic inventories reach record highs, while overseas low inventories create a shortage expectation [5] - Zinc prices are under pressure with a rebound in domestic zinc concentrate stocks, while the market remains cautious about the seasonal destocking pace [8] Industrial Metals - The market for aluminum alloys is following aluminum price fluctuations, with a narrowing price gap due to overall declines in the sector [7] - The iron ore market is experiencing fluctuations, with domestic port inventories declining seasonally and demand from steel mills showing signs of recovery [16] Energy Products - Fuel oil prices are expected to remain strong due to geopolitical tensions affecting supply routes, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz [22] - The asphalt market is tightening as refinery supplies decrease, with expectations of improved demand as temperatures rise [23] Agricultural Products - The soybean and meal markets are under pressure due to rising energy prices and concerns over fertilizer supply disruptions from the Middle East [36] - The corn market is expected to respond to government policies aimed at ensuring food security, with recent price increases observed [40] Livestock - The live pig market is facing downward pressure with high inventory levels, while the egg market shows potential for price increases due to lower supply expectations [41][42] Chemical Products - The methanol market is showing strength due to reduced import volumes and recovering domestic demand, influenced by geopolitical factors [25] - The PVC market is experiencing a strong upward trend, supported by tight supply and rising raw material costs [29] Financial Markets - The stock market is experiencing volatility, with significant movements in indices influenced by geopolitical developments and central bank policies [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides daily market information and strategy recommendations for various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, methanol, urea, rubber, PVC, pure benzene & styrene, polyethylene, polypropylene, PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol [2][3][6]. - Due to the ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, it has a significant impact on the supply and price trends of energy and chemical products [18][21]. - Different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed accordingly [2][3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 38.50 yuan/barrel, or 5.41%, to 750.80 yuan/barrel [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a short - term bearish strategic allocation for crude oil; before the mid - year production increase in Libya, widen the price difference between different crude oil varieties at low prices; short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil; short the INE - Brent cross - region spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by (43.00) yuan/ton, reported at 3132 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 11 yuan [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Since methanol already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profits at high prices [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Northeast remained unchanged, while in Shanxi it decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at 19 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by - 18 yuan/ton, reported at 1841 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With a high expectation of the first - quarter production peak, although there are still positive expectations for domestic downstream demand, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. Consider short - selling at high prices. When the alternative valuation of urea reaches the limit, there may be short - term positive support for demand [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Concerns about the economic outlook due to the Middle East situation led to a decline in the stock market and sensitive commodities. As of March 19, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 69.22%, and that of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 77.17%. China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 1.13% [9][10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market fluctuates greatly, so trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. Below 16,700 for RU, it has turned bearish technically. Consider allocating out - of - the - money call options for butadiene rubber. Continue to hold the position of buying the main NR contract and short - selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 15 yuan to 5875 yuan. The overall operating rate was 80.1%, with the calcium carbide method at 84.7% and the ethylene method at 69.2%. Factory inventory was 36.5 million tons (- 1.2), and social inventory was 137.1 million tons (- 3.6) [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises has rebounded to a high level. Although there is an expectation of passive production cuts in ethylene - based production and seasonal maintenance, and domestic demand is gradually recovering from the off - season, and there is an expectation of overseas production cuts, the short - term trend is upward before the Iranian issue is resolved, but beware of risks due to the large short - term increase [14][15]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and its futures price also remained unchanged, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene rose, while the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate was 70.46%, down 1.33%, and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.60 million tons [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is limited. The supply is still relatively abundant, and the port inventory is continuously increasing. It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 8818 yuan/ton, down 98 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.37%, up 0.39%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.71 million tons, and trader inventory increased by 0.48 million tons [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The futures price fell. The PE valuation still has downward space. After the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases marginally, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 9019 yuan/ton, down 139 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 71.5%, up 0.17%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 6.14 million tons, trader inventory decreased by 1.244 million tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.29 million tons [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The futures price fell. The supply pressure will be alleviated in the first half of 2026. The downstream operating rate rebounds seasonally. The short - term market is dominated by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 232 yuan to 9682 yuan. The Chinese PX load was 84.6%, down 0.1%, and the Asian load was 74.8%, down 2.1%. The inventory decreased by 1 million tons month - on - month at the end of January [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The PX load is expected to further decline, and the downstream PTA load is expected to rise. PX will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle in March. The valuation is currently moderately low, and it is expected to increase, but beware of risks due to the large short - term increase [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 184 yuan to 6650 yuan. The PTA load was 80.8%, up 3.5%. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased by 2.6 million tons on March 6. The on - disk processing fee fell 32 yuan to 298 yuan [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is difficult for PTA to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but beware of risks due to the large short - term increase [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 133 yuan to 5353 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 66.5%, down 0.3%. Port inventory decreased by 5.7 million tons [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Overseas plant maintenance volume has increased significantly, and domestic plants are gradually entering the maintenance season. The load is expected to continue to decline, and imports are expected to decrease significantly from March. The port inventory will gradually shift to de - stocking. The current oil - chemical profit has dropped to a historical low level, but beware of risks due to the large short - term increase [32].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the hawkish stance of global central banks on market dynamics, leading to a risk-off sentiment and tightening liquidity conditions, which have resulted in a significant decline in various asset classes, including equities and traditional safe-haven assets like gold [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent market trends have shown a phenomenon where rising oil prices have led to a decline in both traditional safe-haven assets and risk assets, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the critical 4000-point mark [2][3]. - The ICE Brent crude oil price surged over 40% since March, reaching as high as $119 per barrel, while the COMEX gold price experienced a weekly drop of over 10%, marking the longest consecutive decline since October 2023 [2][4]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The combination of geopolitical conflicts, particularly the military actions involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran, has increased global uncertainty, affecting oil prices and inflation expectations significantly [3][4]. - A synchronized hawkish shift among major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, has contributed to tightening liquidity conditions, which is a key factor behind the widespread asset price declines [3][4]. Group 3: Inflation and Stagflation Risks - High oil prices are expected to elevate overall inflation levels, with estimates suggesting that a $10 increase in oil prices could raise global inflation rates by 40 basis points, while also potentially reducing global output by 0.1% to 0.2% [4][5]. - Concerns about stagflation are rising, as central banks maintain tight monetary policies to combat inflation, which could hinder economic growth [4][5]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Fund managers are adjusting their portfolios in response to tightening liquidity and stagflation risks, focusing on high-quality cash flow and high return on equity (ROE) assets while avoiding high-volatility sectors like electric vehicles and innovative pharmaceuticals [6][7]. - There is a recommendation to adopt a strategy that emphasizes individual stock selection over index reliance, particularly in sectors that are expected to benefit from price increases, such as upstream resources [6][7]. Group 5: Asset Class Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term value of traditional safe-haven assets like bonds and gold remains intact, with expectations of continued demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks and currency credit risks [8]. - The domestic bond market is viewed positively, with expectations that the impact of rising oil prices on inflation will be limited, allowing for a stable low-inflation environment [8].

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of March 20, 2026, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 21.7x and PB at 1.8x, positioned at the historical 81st and 43rd percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 PE is at 11.4x and PB at 1.3x, at the historical 57th and 34th percentiles [2] - The CSI 300 PE is at 14.0x and PB at 1.5x, at the historical 62nd and 36th percentiles [2] - The CSI 500 PE is at 35.1x and PB at 2.4x, at the historical 67th and 56th percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index PE is at 41.2x and PB at 5.6x, at the historical 36th and 64th percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Automation Equipment, Retail, IT Services, and Communication [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communication [2] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile include Securities, Food and Beverage, Medical Services, and White Goods [2] Industry Sentiment Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, the price of polysilicon futures dropped by 11.8%, and the spot price fell by 3.2%, indicating cautious demand from downstream [2] - Battery material prices, including lithium, have seen significant declines, with lithium carbonate down by 3.9% [2] Technology TMT - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 0.3%, while the Taiwan Semiconductor Index fell by 0.4% [2] - The DRAM price index increased by 4.1%, indicating a positive trend in semiconductor pricing [2] Real Estate Chain - The national average price of rebar fell by 0.4%, while cement prices increased by 1.3% as construction activity picks up [3] - Real estate sales area decreased by 13.5% year-on-year in January-February 2026, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs fell by 1.8%, prompting government intervention to stabilize prices [3] - Retail sales grew by 2.8% year-on-year in January-February 2026, showing signs of recovery in consumer confidence [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment grew by 3.1% year-on-year in January-February 2026, supported by improved cash flow and external demand [3] - Industrial electricity consumption increased by 6.1%, reflecting a recovery in manufacturing and export activities [3] Cyclical Industries - Concerns over global economic stagnation have led to significant declines in metal prices, with COMEX gold down by 10.6% [3] - Brent crude oil prices rose by 0.5% to $104.41 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions affecting supply [3]

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of March 20, 2026, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 21.7x and PB at 1.8x, positioned at the historical 81st and 43rd percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 PE is at 11.4x and PB at 1.3x, at the historical 57th and 34th percentiles [2] - The CSI 300 PE is at 14.0x and PB at 1.5x, at the historical 62nd and 36th percentiles [2] - The CSI 500 PE is at 35.1x and PB at 2.4x, at the historical 67th and 56th percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index PE is at 41.2x and PB at 5.6x, at the historical 36th and 64th percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Automation Equipment, Retail, IT Services, and Communication [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communication [2] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile include Securities, Food and Beverage, Medical Services, and White Goods [2] Industry Midstream Sentiment Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, polysilicon futures prices fell by 11.8%, and spot prices dropped by 3.2%, indicating cautious demand from downstream [3] - Battery material prices, including lithium, have seen significant declines, with lithium carbonate down 3.9% [3] Technology TMT - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 0.3%, while the Taiwan Semiconductor Index fell by 0.4% [3] - The DRAM price index increased by 4.1%, indicating a positive trend in semiconductor pricing [3] Real Estate Chain - The national average price of rebar fell by 0.4%, while cement prices increased by 1.3% as construction activity picks up [3] - Real estate sales area decreased by 13.5% year-on-year in January-February 2026, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs fell by 1.8%, prompting government intervention to stabilize prices [3] - Retail sales grew by 2.8% year-on-year in January-February 2026, showing signs of recovery in consumer confidence [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment grew by 3.1% year-on-year in January-February 2026, reflecting improved cash flow and external demand [3] - Industrial electricity consumption increased by 6.1% year-on-year, driven by higher manufacturing output [3] Cyclical Industries - Concerns over global economic stagnation have led to significant declines in metal prices, with COMEX gold down 10.6% and copper down 7.1% [3] - Brent crude oil prices rose by 0.5% to $104.41 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions affecting supply [3]

Group 1 - The essence of the recent market decline is attributed to the rebound of the US dollar rather than a recession, with the US dollar strengthening following the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, reversing the previous narrative of a weak dollar [2][16] - Prior to the conflict, the dollar was weak, leading to capital outflows from dollar assets, while US stocks underperformed globally; however, post-conflict, US stocks showed relative resilience as funds flowed back into the US [2][16] - The performance of sensitive markets to the dollar index saw greater declines after the conflict, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics driven by dollar liquidity redistribution [2][16] Group 2 - The US economy, characterized by a service-oriented structure, has a lower energy consumption per GDP compared to other economies, which has allowed it to withstand the impacts of the conflict better than energy-dependent manufacturing sectors in East Asia [3][29] - The global risk assets have underperformed relative to US assets, reflecting the US's control over the world order amidst the ongoing conflict, which has reversed the trend of dollar liquidity outflow [3][29] - The recent market dynamics suggest that the strong assets, particularly in the US technology sector, may be signaling a market bottom as they begin to correct [3][36] Group 3 - The pressure on the non-ferrous metals sector may be easing, as market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening have become overly pessimistic compared to the Fed's own stance [4][40] - The current extreme market pricing regarding interest rate expectations indicates potential for recovery in the non-ferrous metals sector, as the previous fears of recession may not be justified [4][40] Group 4 - In the context of global energy security concerns, China's unique advantages in coal chemical and power equipment industries are becoming increasingly apparent, with its solar energy production capacity equivalent to a significant portion of the oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz [5][53] - China's manufacturing sector is currently undervalued compared to global peers, with PE valuation differentials at historical highs, indicating a potential for revaluation as export growth continues [5][55] - The internal demand in China is showing signs of recovery, with retail sales growth stabilizing, suggesting that consumption improvements are not solely reliant on policy stimulus [5][55]

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: March 20, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. Core Viewpoints - The Middle East situation continues to escalate, affecting the supply of energy products. Before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, oil prices will remain strong but volatile. The polyolefin market is driven by strong cost support and a substantial contraction in supply, maintaining a relatively strong and upward - trending pattern. The pulp market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with low - level fluctuations. The soda ash market is under pressure, with high supply and weak demand. The glass market is in a dilemma, with high inventory and potential production capacity release suppressing the upside, while losses and cold - repair expectations provide some support [7][53][87][126][145] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil futures have different price trends. The Middle East situation affects supply, and the IEA's joint release of reserves and the US's relaxation of sanctions on Venezuela can relieve some supply tensions. Before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, oil prices are strong but volatile, and a bullish call spread can be considered [7][8] - **Fundamental Changes**: The Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and Middle Eastern countries are forced to cut production. The US takes measures to relieve supply tensions. High - frequency data shows changes in US crude oil and refined product inventories. The EIA has adjusted its supply - demand expectations and raised the average price forecast for Brent in the second quarter of 2026 [9][10][11] Polyester - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Geopolitical conflicts lead to cost - push price increases. PX and PTA enterprises may cut production, and the polyester downstream has increased demand but poor sales. The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease, and the market price is expected to be strong [28][29] - **Main Driving Forces**: The downstream consumption of polyester is weak, and the support for PTA and ethylene glycol is limited. PX prices may rise steadily, and PTA production is expected to increase. The ethylene glycol market is expected to be strong due to supply and cost factors [30][32][34] Polyolefins - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The futures and spot prices of polyolefins have different trends. The market is affected by the Middle East situation, with strong cost support and supply contraction, but weak demand. It is expected to maintain a high - level sideways trend in the short term [42][53][54] - **Fundamental Changes**: The production of polypropylene and polyethylene has different changes, with some devices restarting and some under maintenance. The production profit of different raw materials varies. The inventory of polyolefins is high, and the downstream start - up level is different [55][56][67] Pulp - **Market Review and Outlook**: The pulp futures price has declined. The macro - environment and fundamentals affect the market, with a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and low - level fluctuations [86][87] - **Fundamental Changes**: The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries, import volume, inventory, and downstream market conditions show different trends, with overall supply exceeding demand [88][93][103] Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The soda ash futures price shows a downward trend. In the short term, the price may fluctuate greatly, and in the long term, it is under downward pressure. It is necessary to wait for capacity clearance [126][128] - **Soda Ash Market Situation**: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, with high production and inventory. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the pressure remains. The spot price fluctuates slightly, and the downstream demand is weak [130][135][142] Glass - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The glass futures price continues to decline. The price is in a dilemma, with high inventory suppressing the upside and losses providing some support. It is necessary to pay attention to real - estate sales data [145][146] - **Glass Market Situation**: The glass supply is at a low level, with reduced production and capacity utilization. The inventory shows a contraction trend but remains high. The spot price is stable with a slight increase, affected by cost and supply factors. The import and export volume has different trends, and the upstream soda ash is in an oversupply situation. The downstream consumption is weak [148][151][155]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Rubber**: The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a weakening trend on Friday. As the new rubber tapping season approaches, the supply of Shanghai rubber is expected to increase, and the futures are likely to maintain a weakening trend [6]. - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol futures contract 2605 also showed a weakening trend on Friday. With the weakening of short - term geopolitical sentiment, methanol has adjusted, and it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [7]. - **Crude Oil**: The domestic crude oil futures contract 2605 had a weakening trend on Friday. As short - term geopolitical sentiment weakens, the premium of crude oil has partially retreated. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures price will maintain a high - level oscillation [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 67.76 million tons, a decrease of 0.28 million tons (0.42% decline) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 1.43% to 12.13 million tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.81% to 55.63 million tons. The inbound and outbound rates of bonded and general trade warehouses increased [9]. - As of March 20, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.32%, a 0.59 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 0.05 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.21%, a 0.41 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 3.31 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will remain stable in the next period [9]. - In February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1%, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2%. From January to February 2026, the production and sales of automobiles were 4.122 million and 4.152 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5% and 8.8%. However, automobile exports in February increased by 52.4% year - on - year [10]. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an 8% decrease from the same period last year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 87.66%, a 2.05% increase from the previous week, a 0.25% increase from the previous month, and an 11.99% increase from the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0749 billion tons, a 61,000 - ton increase from the previous week, a 170,000 - ton increase from the previous month, and a 221,200 - ton increase from the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 33.97%, a 0.30% increase from the previous week; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 10.13%, a 1.45% increase from the previous week; the acetic acid operating rate was 88.30%, a 0.39% decrease from the previous week; the MTBE operating rate was 57.20%, a 0.11% decrease from the previous week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.26%, a 3.82 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 1.61% increase from the previous month [11]. - As of March 20, 2026, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures contract profit was - 278 yuan/ton, a 466 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous week and a 169 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous month [11]. - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 826,700 tons, a 53,900 - ton decrease from the previous week, a 148,600 - ton decrease from the previous month, and a 137,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. As of the week of March 19, 2026, the inland methanol inventory was 485,400 tons, a 37,700 - ton decrease from the previous week, a 145,100 - ton increase from the previous month, and a 140,000 - ton increase from the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of March 13, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 412, a 1 - unit increase from the previous week and a 75 - unit decrease from the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of March 13, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.668 million barrels, a 10,000 - barrel - per - day decrease from the previous week and a 95,000 - barrel - per - day increase year - on - year, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of March 13, 2026, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 449.3 million barrels, a 6.156 - million - barrel increase from the previous week and a 12.291 - million - barrel increase from the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 27.524 million barrels, a 944,000 - barrel increase from the previous week; the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 415.442 million barrels, a 100,000 - barrel increase from the previous week. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 91.4%, a 0.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, and a 4.5 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [13]. - As of March 10, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 228,015 contracts, a 55,865 - contract increase from the previous week and an 88,906 - contract increase (63.91% increase) from the February average. As of March 10, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 286,968 contracts, a 40,454 - contract increase from the previous week and a 125,574 - contract increase (77.81% increase) from the February average [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,000 yuan/ton | - 250 yuan/ton | 16,055 yuan/ton | - 35 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan/ton | + 35 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 3,217 yuan/ton | + 272 yuan/ton | 3,084 yuan/ton | - 98 yuan/ton | + 133 yuan/ton | + 98 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 762.2 yuan/barrel | - 1.0 yuan/barrel | 764.7 yuan/barrel | - 50.2 yuan/barrel | - 2.5 yuan/barrel | + 49.2 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report includes charts such as rubber basis, rubber 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][20][22][24][26]. - **Methanol**: The report includes charts such as methanol basis, methanol 5 - 9 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [27][29][31][33][35][37]. - **Crude Oil**: The report includes charts such as crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][41][43][45][47][49].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the differentiated economic conditions, with rising prices in the oil and chemical chain, an upward shift in emerging technology sectors, and strong growth in travel and consumer goods in the first quarter [1][2]. Group 2 - The oil chain continues to see price increases due to disruptions in oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude oil futures settling at a +11.3% increase as of March 13, and domestic chemical prices rising by +12.5% [2]. - Emerging technology sectors, particularly in semiconductors, show significant growth, with South Korea's semiconductor exports increasing by +40.0% year-on-year as of February 2026, and domestic machinery exports rising by +27.1% [3]. - Traditional consumer sectors are experiencing a slight decline, with real estate transactions in 30 major cities down by -3.8% year-on-year, while tourism remains strong, evidenced by a +281.9% increase in visitor numbers at Shanghai Disneyland [4]. Group 3 - Passenger transport volume in major cities has increased by +5.5% year-on-year, indicating robust travel activity, while freight transport also shows growth with national road and rail freight volumes up by +0.6% and +4.3% respectively [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global capital market liquidity continues to be impacted, and domestic small and medium - cap stocks are dragged down. The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and may restart the upward pattern in the future with the easing of external inflation pressure and the recovery of market risk appetite [1]. - Multiple factors such as housing demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure brought by fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the volatile operation of treasury bonds [1]. - Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals are under pressure, while the price of alumina may fluctuate due to the consideration of export quotas in Guinea. Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and their prices are under pressure. Platinum and palladium prices are also under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side resumes production, but demand is weak and inventory is being depleted. For lithium carbonate, there are factors such as strong energy storage demand, weak power demand, and strong capital risk - aversion sentiment, and the price is in shock [1]. - For black metals, most varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - For agricultural products, palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term. Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - For energy and chemical futures, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected, and their prices show different trends [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and it is recommended to build long positions in the medium and long term by combining the discount advantage of stock index futures and control positions [1]. - Treasury bonds oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may decline, aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices may fluctuate. Zinc and tin prices are affected by the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and platinum and palladium prices are under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Industrial silicon has issues of supply - side resumption and weak demand; lithium carbonate has multiple influencing factors and is in shock [1]. Black Metals - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, glass, and other varieties are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by geopolitical factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical changes [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Corn futures are expected to continue the high - level shock pattern, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors [1]. - It is recommended to wait for callbacks to layout long positions in the far - month contracts of soybean meal [1]. - Pulp futures are in a weak fundamental situation and are in shock in a certain price range [1]. - Log futures have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, and their prices show different trends [1]. - Urea has limited upward space and cost - side support; methanol has issues of Iranian imports and high domestic inventory [1]. - PE, PP, and PVC are affected by geopolitical factors, and PVC has a relatively optimistic future expectation [1]. - Caustic soda has a weak fundamental situation, and the market sentiment has cooled [1]. - LPG has a complex situation with factors such as price premiums, demand, and inventory, and there is a differentiation between internal and external markets [1]. - For container shipping on the European line, price increases are generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1].