Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, due to high domestic supply pressure, sufficient soybean purchases until December, and the current cancellation of export tax in Argentina, there may be a short - term decline. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is abundant, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. However, considering the low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the market will likely fluctuate within a range [2][4]. - **Oils**: Currently, the supply and demand of oils are balanced or slightly loose, but there is an expectation of tight supply in the future. Supported by factors such as low inventory in India and Southeast Asia, the US biodiesel policy, and reduced export volume expectations in Indonesia, the market is expected to be moderately strong in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips after stabilization [6][9]. - **Sugar**: Affected by factors such as high sugar imports in August and a significant increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the overall trend of sugar prices is bearish. Technically, short - term indicators suggest a wait - and - see approach before the National Day holiday [11][12]. - **Cotton**: Although it is the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the downstream industry's operating rate is growing weakly, and there is an expectation of increased domestic production in the far - term. However, due to low domestic cotton inventory and relatively low prices, there may be support at the bottom. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [14][15]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is expected to decline, with the near - term futures showing weakness and the far - term futures strengthening relatively due to expectations of improved supply - demand and capital games. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - term futures after a decline [17][18]. - **Pigs**: The current spot price is accelerating its decline due to factors such as increased supply from group farms and panic selling by individual farmers. The futures price is also under pressure due to high premiums attracting short - selling. It is recommended to short the near - term futures and use option selling to manage volatility risks [20][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: US soybeans rose slightly on Thursday. Argentina has raised $7 billion and restored export tax. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose slightly on Wednesday, with a decrease in trading volume and提货 volume. Last week, domestic port soybean inventory decreased by 700,000 tons, and soybean meal inventory increased by 90,000 tons [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, there may be a decline; medium - term, the market will fluctuate within a range, with a strategy of selling on rebounds [4]. Oils - **Market Information**: From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports and production showed different trends. Indonesia's palm oil exports decreased in July, while production and inventory increased. India bought a record 300,000 tons of soybean oil from Argentina [6]. - **Strategy**: Medium - term, the market is expected to be moderately strong. Buy on dips after stabilization [9]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fluctuated. StoneX predicted an increase in sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2026/27 season. Thailand and India are also expected to increase sugar production. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased [11]. - **Strategy**: Overall bearish, wait - and - see before the National Day holiday [12]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were weak. The operating rates of spinning and weaving factories were lower than the same period last year. US cotton's good - quality rate decreased slightly but was still high [14]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, wait and see due to conflicting factors of weak downstream demand and low inventory [15]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was stable with a few declines on the previous day. Supply was stable, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weak [17]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short - term, focus on buying far - term futures after a decline [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly declined on the previous day. Before the festival, demand was weak, and the number of pigs for sale was large [20]. - **Strategy**: Short the near - term futures and use option selling to manage risks [21].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 09 月 26 日星期五 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，昨日深加工企业收购价涨跌互现。东北地区深加 | | | | | 工企业主流收购均价2151元/吨，较前一日跌4元/吨；华北地区深加工企业主流收购 | | | | | 价2370元/吨，较前一日持平。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，南北港口价格北弱南强。锦州港（15%水/容重6 | | | | | 80-720）收购价2230-2240元/吨，较前一日跌10-20元/吨；蛇口港散粮玉米成交价2 | | | | | 390元/吨，较前一日涨10元/吨。 | | | | | 3、玉米期货仓单数量继续减少。截至9 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) saw a comprehensive increase in agricultural futures on September 25, with notable gains in soybean, corn, and wheat futures [1] Group 1: Agricultural Futures Performance - Soybean futures rose by 0.30%, closing at 1012.00 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures increased by 0.12%, ending at 424.75 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures experienced a significant rise of 1.30%, closing at 526.25 cents per bushel [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the soybean/meal sector, the international soybean supply is generally loose, with price pressure remaining. In the domestic market, high arrivals and crushing volumes, along with good demand, still result in overall pressure [2][3][4]. - Regarding sugar, internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is entering the accumulation phase, which has a bearish impact on prices. However, low - priced sugar has strong support. Domestically, the import volume is high, the domestic sugar inventory is low, and the Zhengzhou sugar price has greater downward resistance [7][8][11]. - In the oil and fat sector, the palm oil price is supported by stable spot prices in the origin. Domestic soybean oil is in the inventory accumulation stage, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil have little change. Short - term sentiment may affect the market [15][17][19]. - For corn/corn starch, the US corn futures are falling back, and the domestic corn supply is still scarce. The 01 corn contract is oscillating at the bottom [26][27][29]. - In the pig market, the overall supply pressure remains, and the price is expected to decline [35]. - For peanuts, the market is stable, and the 01 peanut contract is oscillating at the bottom [39][40][43]. - In the egg market, high supply, low cost, and weak demand have led to low egg prices. The short - term price rebound is due to holiday stocking, and the price is starting to fall back [48][49][51]. - For apples, the futures are expected to be oscillating in the short term, and the new - season purchase price will have a significant impact on the market [55][56][60]. - In the cotton - cotton yarn market, the Xinjiang cotton output is expected to increase, and the downstream demand improvement is limited. The market is expected to be slightly weak [64][65][67]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **外盘情况**: CBOT大豆指数下跌0.7%至1028.5美分/蒲，CBOT豆粕指数下跌0.74%至280.6美金/短吨 [2] - **相关资讯**: 截至2025年9月18日当周，预计美国2025/26市场年度大豆出口净销售为60 - 160万吨；2024/25市场年度豆粕出口净销售介于0 - 5万吨，2025/26市场年度豆粕出口净销售为15 - 40万吨；欧盟将EUDR执行再度推迟12个月至2026年年底；9月22日当周大豆出口量达200万吨，9月1 - 22日累积出口量约470万吨；截止9月19日当周，油厂大豆实际压榨量242.75万吨，开机率67.76%，大豆库存694.66万吨，较上周减少38.54万吨，减幅5.26%，同比去年增加7.04万吨，增幅1.02%，豆粕库存125万吨，较上周增加8.56万吨，增幅7.35%，同比去年减少20.83万吨，减幅14.28% [2][3] - **逻辑分析**: 美国与阿根廷相关谈判使市场对阿根廷压力担忧好转，国际大豆供应偏宽松，价格有压力；国内大豆到港和压榨量维持高位，需求良好但仍有压力 [4] - **策略建议**: 单边观望；M11 - 1正套；期权观望 [6] Sugar - **外盘变化**: 上一交易日ICE美原糖主力合约震荡小幅收低，跌0.04（-0.25%）至16.12美分/磅；伦白糖主力合约跌4.6（-0.99%）至458.4美元/吨 [7] - **重要咨讯**: 咨询公司StoneX预计巴西中南部地区2026/27年度糖产量达4210万吨，同比增长5.7%，甘蔗压榨量或达6.205亿吨，同比增长3.6%；2025/26年度全球食糖市场预计供应过剩277万吨，巴西、印度和泰国作物收成改善将抵消欧洲减产；内蒙古荷丰农业和新疆绿翔糖业开榨 [8][9] - **逻辑分析**: 国际上巴西供应高峰使全球累库，对价格有一定利空，但低价糖有支撑；国内进口糖量高，国产糖库存低，受外糖走势影响大，郑糖向下阻力变大，广东广西台风对郑糖有支撑 [11] - **交易策略**: 单边外糖短期低位震荡，郑糖受外糖反弹和天气影响走势略强；套利观望；考虑低位卖出虚值看跌期权 [12][13][14] Oil and Fat - **外盘情况**: 隔夜CBOT美豆油主力价格变动幅度 - 0.30%至49.84美分/磅；BMD马棕油主力价格变动幅度0.28%至4353林吉特/吨 [15] - **相关资讯**: MPOC预计马来西亚棕榈油9 - 10月库存小幅攀升，11月回落；印尼和欧盟签署协定，印尼棕榈油等产品有望受益；巴基斯坦9月采购约18万吨美国大豆；截至9月21日，欧盟2025/26年棕榈油、大豆、豆粕、油菜籽进口量较去年有不同程度变化 [17][18] - **逻辑分析**: 9月马棕产量或下滑，出口或上涨，产地现货价格支撑棕榈油；国内豆油累库，关注美豆进口情况；菜油基本面变化不大，澳籽进口有变数，菜油去库支撑价格；短期油脂受情绪面影响，建议观望 [19] - **交易策略**: 单边短期油脂震荡回落，暂时观望；套利观望；期权观望 [20][21][22] Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**: 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）玉米期货外盘回落，美玉米12月主力合约回落0.5%，收盘为424.5美分/蒲 [26] - **重要资讯**: 截至2025年9月19日，北方四港玉米库存共计67.5万吨，周环比减少5.4万吨，下海量共计22.4万吨，周环比减少9.70万吨；广东港内贸玉米库存减少，外贸库存增加，进口高粱减少，进口大麦增加；本周全国玉米加工总量、淀粉产量增加，开机率升高；截至9月24日，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量下降；9月25日北港收购价稳定，产区黑龙价玉米下跌，华北产区玉米稳定 [27][28] - **逻辑分析**: 美玉米外盘回落，后期下调单产但产量新高，反弹空间有限；国内玉米供应少，东北玉米回落，港口价格偏强，进口玉米拍卖，华北玉米现货反弹，01玉米底部震荡，盘面回落空间小 [29] - **交易策略**: 单边外盘12玉米反弹到高位观望等回调，01玉米建立多单并设止损；套利观望；期权观望 [31][32][33] Pig - **相关资讯**: 生猪价格整体震荡，东北地区12.6 - 12.8元/公斤，华北地区12.4 - 12.5元/公斤等；截止9月23日当周，全国7公斤仔猪价格236元/头，15公斤仔猪价格335元/头，50公斤母猪价格1588元/头；9月24日农产品批发价格指数上升，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格上升0.2% [35] - **逻辑分析**: 规模企业和普通养殖户出栏压力好转，短期供应略减，但生猪存栏高位，总体供应压力仍在，价格偏回落 [35] - **策略建议**: 单边观望；LH15反套；卖出宽跨式策略 [38] Peanut - **重要资讯**: 全国花生通货米均价4.22元/斤基本稳定；山东油厂通货米合同采购报价8400元/吨、河南油厂报价7800元/吨；国庆、中秋双节临近，花生油走货略有改善但不如往年旺季，国内一级普通花生油报价14664元/吨、小榨浓香型花生油市场报价为16350元/吨；截止到2025年9月18日，国内花生油样本企业厂家花生库存减少，花生油库存增加 [39][40] - **逻辑分析**: 部分花生现货上市但因天气上量少，河南和东北新季花生稳定，进口量大幅减少，价格稳定，豆粕、花生粕、花生油价格稳定，油厂有利润，油料花生市场稳定，01花生短期底部震荡 [41][43] - **交易策略**: 单边11和01花生底部震荡，11花生短多操作；套利观望；卖出pk601 - P - 7600期权 [44][45][46] Egg - **重要资讯**: 昨日主产区均价为3.67元/斤，主销区均价3.81元/斤，今日全国主流价格多数稳定，部分地区有落价；8月份全国在产蛋鸡存栏量为13.65亿只，较上月增加0.09亿只，同比增加5.9%，8月份样本企业蛋鸡苗月度出苗量环比减少0.1%，同比减少8%；9月11日一周全国主产区蛋鸡淘鸡出栏量减少，淘汰鸡平均淘汰日龄持平；截至9月11日当周全国代表销区鸡蛋销量减少，生产和流通环节周度平均库存减少 [48][49][50] - **交易逻辑**: 总体供应高，高存栏低成本叠加弱需求使蛋价低，前期超低蛋价增加淘鸡积极性，近期蛋价反弹使淘鸡意愿下降，双节备货使库存去化，近期走货放缓，蛋价开始回落 [51] - **交易策略**: 单边近期蛋价回落，近月合约可逢高沽空；套利观望；期权观望 [52][53][54] Apple - **重要资讯**: 截至2025年9月10日，全国主产区苹果冷库库存量为20.91万吨，环比上周减少6.44万吨，山东产区库存走货速度加快；7月份鲜苹果出口量环比增加44.95%，进口量环比减少5.73%，同比增加8.47%，1 - 7月累计进口量同比增加29.76%；山东产区冷库苹果价格主流平稳，优质货源成交顺畅，红将军货源供应量充足但好货偏紧，西北产区客商按需采购，采青货订购价格高，国内批发市场到货平稳，主流成交价格稳定；山东烟台栖霞苹果主流价格稳定，三级果交易顺畅 [55][56][57] - **交易逻辑**: 早熟苹果优果率差，晚熟富士优果率预计也差，开称价格预期略高，但期货盘面价格已不低，短期偏震荡，关注新季收购价格 [60] - **交易策略**: 单边预计短期受优果率差预期苹果偏震荡，前期高位是近期高点，后期苹果上市后卖套保压力大；套利观望；期权观望 [60][61][62] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**: 昨日ICE美棉下跌，主力合约下跌0.47（0.71%）至66.14分/磅 [64] - **重要资讯**: 昨日市场交投冷清，现货基差偏稳，纺企刚需采购，今日籽棉收购价暂稳，棉农观望心理强；美棉主产区及得克萨斯州气温上升降水增加，降水仍偏低，干旱水平上行，优良率小幅下滑；近日籽棉采收增加，价格跌后暂稳，新季棉籽少量上市，棉短绒价格上涨 [65][66] - **交易逻辑**: 新花进入收购，市场关注新棉开称，新疆棉产量预计超预期增加，轧花厂收购积极性一般，无大范围抢收，新花上市有卖套保压力，9月市场旺季下游需求好转有限，旺季表现一般，对盘面提振有限 [67] - **交易策略**: 单边预计未来美棉走势大概率震荡，郑棉前期高位是短期高点，近期卖套保压力大，震荡略偏弱，建议择机交易；套利观望；期权观望 [68][69][70]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - For rapeseed meal, near - term rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weaken long - term supply. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. After two days of sharp decline, the futures price rose with reduced positions to repair the moving - average deviation, and short - term participation is recommended [2] - For rapeseed oil, Canadian rapeseed is expected to have a high yield, which exerts pressure on its price. The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and domestic consumption support is limited with a loose supply - demand situation. But the low oil - mill operating rate and fewer near - term rapeseed purchases keep supply pressure low. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts purchases, and the supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight. The tight supply expectation makes rapeseed oil lead the rise in the oil market, and the Sino - Canadian trade policy trend should be monitored [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 10142 yuan/ton, up 221; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2444 yuan/ton, up 49; ICE rapeseed (active) is 617.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 0.3; rapeseed (active contract) is 5281 yuan/ton, up 1 [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) is 484 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed meal (1 - 5) is 41507 yuan/ton, up 101 [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is 39516 lots, up 21725; rapeseed meal is - 51747 lots, up 21457 [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 8057 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal is 9245 sheets, unchanged [2] - Main - contract open interest: Rapeseed oil is 347712 lots; rapeseed meal is 378057 lots, down 20054 [2] 现货市场 - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10040 yuan/ton, up 70; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2490 yuan/ton, up 40; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8430 yuan/ton, up 80; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9170 yuan/ton, up 150; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2940 yuan/ton, up 40 [2] - Average price: Rapeseed oil is 10105 yuan/ton, up 70 [2] - Import cost: Imported rapeseed is 7704.7 yuan/ton, up 0.1 [2] - Price differences: Oil - meal ratio is 3.93, down 0.03; rapeseed oil - soybean oil spot price difference is 1610 yuan/ton, down 10; rapeseed oil - palm oil spot price difference is 870 yuan/ton, down 80; soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot price difference is 450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main - contract basis is - 102 yuan/ton, down 151; rapeseed meal main - contract basis is 46 yuan/ton, down 9 [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 89.58 million tons, up 0.04 million tons; annual forecast for a certain area is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - Rapeseed import quantity is 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons; import rapeseed crushing profit is 959 yuan/ton, up 12 [2] - Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 5 million tons, down 5 million tons; weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 13.06%, up 0.27% [2] - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil are 14 million tons, up 1 million tons; imports of rapeseed meal are 18.31 million tons, down 8.72 million tons [2] 产业情况 - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 7.55 million tons, down 1.1 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, unchanged [2] - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 51.2 million tons, down 0.92 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 28.93 million tons, down 1.07 million tons [2] - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 3.5 million tons, down 0.6 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 21.4 million tons, up 1.4 million tons [2] - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 1.55 million tons, down 2.78 million tons; weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.79 million tons, down 0.78 million tons [2] 下游情况 - Feed production is 2927.2 million tons, up 99.9 million tons; catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] - Edible vegetable oil production is 450.6 million tons, up 30 million tons [2] 期权市场 - For rapeseed meal, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.79%, up 0.9%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.78%, up 0.9%; 20 - day historical volatility is 21.42%, up 1.01%; 60 - day historical volatility is 24.01%, up 0.41% [2] - For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 13.31%, down 0.93%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.31%, down 0.93%; 20 - day historical volatility is 10.68%, up 0.32%; 60 - day historical volatility is 13.08%, down 0.15% [2] 行业消息 - ICE rapeseed futures were nearly flat on Wednesday, with little guidance from the soybean oil market. CBOT soybean futures fell on Wednesday due to concerns about US export demand. Rapeseed meal 2601 contract rose 1.58% on Thursday. US soybeans are in the harvest period, and the expected high yield restrains prices. The Sino - US soybean trade situation remains deadlocked, and Argentina's export policy changes affect the market [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The demand for peanuts is weak, and prices are continuously fluctuating. The new - season soybeans in major producing areas are gradually coming onto the market, with overall good supply and price pressure [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary of Soybean - Related Content Market Analysis - In the futures market, the closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract yesterday was 3907.00 yuan/ton, a change of +29.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.75%. In the spot market, the basis of edible soybeans was A11 + 313, a change of - 29 from the previous day, a decrease of 32.14% [1] - New - season soybeans in Northeast China are gradually coming onto the market, with the purchase price of raw grains between 1.8 - 2 yuan/jin. Due to climate impact this year, the protein content has declined, and the prices of high - protein sources are firm. In the south, Jiangsu large - white - skinned soybeans have recently come onto the market, with raw grain prices of 2.7 - 2.9 yuan/jin and clean grain prices of 3 - 3.15 yuan/jin. Yesterday, the soybean futures price fluctuated. The purchase price in the Northeast is weak, while the price in the South is stable. Overall supply is good, and prices are under pressure [1][2] Group 4: Summary of Peanut - Related Content Market Analysis - In the futures market, the closing price of the peanut 2511 contract yesterday was 7762.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 6.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.08%. In the spot market, the average peanut price was 8440.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.12%. The basis was PK11 + 438.00, a change of +6.00 from the previous day, an increase of +1.39% [3] - The average price of national peanut general rice is 4.22 yuan/jin, basically stable. Shandong oil mills' contract purchase price for general rice is 8400 yuan/ton, and Henan oil mills' is 7800 yuan/ton. New peanut - producing areas are increasing, but the overall supply is still small. With the approaching of the Double Festival, downstream stocking demand is still weak, and oil mills' contract purchase prices are stable with limited purchases [3]

Report Investment Ratings - The overall strategy for the cotton, sugar, and pulp markets is neutral [2][6][8] Core Views - Cotton: New cotton has support before large - scale listing, but pressure will be released during the centralized listing period. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation is not expected to be too loose after seasonal pressure [2] - Sugar: Affected by raw sugar, it may fall below the key support level, but there is cost support. In the medium - term, it should be treated with a bearish view [6] - Pulp: The fundamentals have insufficient improvement, and the short - term price may continue to fluctuate at a low level [8] Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,024 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,062 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [1] - India's cotton planting area was 10.964 million hectares, a 2.5% decrease from last year [1] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5497 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton (+0.97%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - StoneX predicted that Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 2026/27 season would reach 42.1 million tons, a 5.7% increase [3] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5044 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (+0.72%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Arauco silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5610 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis Cotton - International: The September USDA report adjusted up global cotton production and consumption, and adjusted down the beginning and ending stocks. The US cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but the export sales progress is slow [1] - Domestic: The cotton de - stocking speed is fast, the commercial inventory is at a low level, and the supply is tight at the end of the year. However, the new - year production increase expectation is strong, and the hedging pressure is large during the new - flower listing period [1] Sugar - Raw sugar: The sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The production increase expectation in the Northern Hemisphere remains, suppressing the raw sugar price [4] - Zhengzhou sugar: The domestic production and sales in August were not good, the import volume reached a new high, and the supply is sufficient in the short - term [4] Pulp - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual transactions in September were poor, and the supply pressure remains [7] - Demand: The consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and the domestic demand is also soft, which suppresses the pulp price [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "sideways" [1] - The investment rating for cotton is "sideways" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks during the summer vacation, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently. The international sugar price is weakly fluctuating above the lowest point in the past four years. The overall growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is good, but the beet harvest in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia has been affected, which has postponed the opening time of sugar mills. The market maintains the expectation of oversupply [1][3] - The current commercial inventory of cotton continues to decline, and the cotton textile peak season is coming soon, providing bottom support for cotton prices. The import of cotton is lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is lowered. The overall growth of cotton is better than last year, and the demand for cotton is expected to pick up seasonally during the traditional peak season, with upward price momentum [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Quotes - **External Market Quotes**: On September 24, 2025, the closing price of US sugar was 16.12, with a change of -0.25%; the closing price of US cotton was 66.14, with a change of -0.71% [1][4] - **Spot Prices**: On September 24, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5780.0 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5800.0 yuan, unchanged; the cotton index 328 was 3280, with a change of -0.47%; the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang was 15050.0 yuan, with a change of -0.66% [1][4] - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads of sugar and cotton contracts have changed to varying degrees, such as SR05 - 09 changing from -22.0 to -14.0, a change of -36.36%; CF01 - 05 changing from -20.0 to 15.0, a change of -175.00% [4] - **Import Prices**: On September 24, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA was 77.85, unchanged [4] - **Profit Margins**: The import profit of sugar on September 24, 2025, was 1549.0, unchanged [4] - **Options**: The implied volatility and historical volatility of sugar and cotton options are provided, such as the implied volatility of SR601C5500 being 0.0881 and the historical volatility of SR601 being 6.52 [4] - **Inventory Warrants**: On September 24, 2025, the number of Zhengzhou sugar warrants was 9854.0, with a change of -1.68%; the number of Zhengzhou cotton warrants was 3716.0, with a change of -5.08% [2][4] 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Sugar**: Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks during the summer vacation, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets [1] - **Cotton**: In August, the temperature in the cotton - growing areas of Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and the precipitation was low, increasing the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton. The current commercial inventory of cotton continues to decline, and the cotton textile peak season is coming soon, providing bottom support for cotton prices [1] 3.3 Conclusion and Strategy - **Sugar**: The overall growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is good, but the beet harvest in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia has been affected, which has postponed the opening time of sugar mills. The Brazilian sugar production progress has accelerated, and the market maintains the expectation of oversupply. The international sugar price is weakly fluctuating above the lowest point in the past four years [3] - **Cotton**: The import of cotton is lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is lowered. The overall growth of cotton is better than last year, and the demand for cotton is expected to pick up seasonally during the traditional peak season, with upward price momentum [3] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Protein Meal**: In the short - term, the domestic supply of soybeans has great pressure, and the temporary cancellation of export tax in Argentina drives soybean meal prices down. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is loose, suggesting a strategy of short - selling on rebounds. However, due to the low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the soybean meal market will fluctuate within a range [3][5]. - **Oils**: The low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the draft US biodiesel policy boosting soybean oil demand, and the expected decline in exportable volume of Indonesian biodiesel support the price center of oils. Oils are in a state of balanced or slightly loose current supply - demand and tight expected supply - demand, and are expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - term. Currently, with high valuation, the strategy is to buy on dips [7][9]. - **Sugar**: Affected by factors such as high import volume in August and increased sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region, the overall trend of sugar prices is bearish. Technically, it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day holiday [11][12]. - **Cotton**: Although it is the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the downstream industrial chain's operating rate growth is weak, and there is an expectation of increased domestic production in the far - month. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton prices are bearish, but low domestic cotton inventory and low prices may provide support, so short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [14][15]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is expected to decline. The near - month futures contract is weak, while the far - month contract is relatively strong due to the expected improvement in supply - demand and capital game. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contract after a decline [17][18]. - **Pigs**: The current spot price shows a slight accelerating downward trend. The futures market may continue to be weak in the short - term. The strategy is to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being aware of high - position risks [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Protein Meal - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, US soybeans declined slightly. Argentina temporarily cancelled export tax, which is negative for international soybean prices. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped slightly by about 10 yuan/ton, with good trading volume and high pick - up volume. Last week, domestic port soybean inventory decreased by 700,000 tons, and soybean meal inventory increased by 90,000 tons. This week, the expected soybean crushing volume is 2.39 million tons. The total scale of about $7 billion for soybeans, corn, and wheat corresponds to nearly 7 - 8 million tons of soybean products (converted to soybeans). Argentina's November soybean premium is about 100 cents per bushel lower than Brazil's [3]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, the domestic supply pressure is large, and the cancellation of Argentina's export tax drives soybean meal prices down. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is loose, but due to low US soybean valuation and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the market will fluctuate within a range [5]. Oils - **Market Information**: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, and production decreased by 3.17% compared with the same period last month. In July, Indonesia's palm oil exports decreased, production increased, inventory increased, and domestic consumption decreased. On Wednesday, domestic three major oils rebounded. The recent decline in oils was due to weak Malaysian palm oil exports and short - term price cuts in Argentina [7]. - **Strategy**: Supported by factors such as low inventory in India and Southeast Asian producing areas and the draft US biodiesel policy, oils are expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - term. Currently, with high valuation, the strategy is to buy on dips [9]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The closing price of the January contract was 5,497 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton or 0.97% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in various regions remained unchanged. StoneX predicted that Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production in the 2026/27 season will reach 42.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7% [11]. - **Strategy**: Affected by high import volume and increased production in Brazil, the overall trend of sugar prices is bearish. Technically, it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day holiday [12]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the January contract was 13,555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. As of September 19, the spinning mill's operating rate was 66.6%, and the weaving mill's operating rate was 37.9%. As of September 21, the US cotton good - to - excellent rate was 47% [14]. - **Strategy**: Although it is the consumption peak season, the downstream operating rate growth is weak, and there is an expectation of increased production in the far - month. Short - term prices are bearish, but low inventory and low prices may provide support, so short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [15]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the national egg price was mainly stable, with a few rising or falling. The average price in the main producing areas remained at 3.62 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened, with general sales. Today's egg price may be stable or decline [17]. - **Strategy**: The spot price is expected to decline. The near - month futures contract is weak, while the far - month contract is relatively strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contract after a decline [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices showed a mixed trend. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.1 yuan to 12.78 yuan/kg. With sufficient supply of standard pigs and approaching the double - festival holiday, downstream stocking enthusiasm may gradually increase. Today's pig price may be stable or decline [20]. - **Strategy**: The current spot price shows a slight accelerating downward trend. The futures market may continue to be weak in the short - term. The strategy is to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being aware of high - position risks [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Low long [3] - Pig: Range trading [5] - Egg: High short [5] 2. Core Views - **Corn**: Short - term, pay attention to import corn auction rhythm and corn - wheat price difference; mid - term, conduct band trading around new - season corn drivers; long - term, maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost and focus on policy orientation [3] - **Pig**: Short - term, supply exceeds demand, pressuring pig prices; mid - term, supply is expected to increase, limiting price increases; long - term, pig production capacity will continue to materialize if no epidemic occurs [5] - **Egg**: Mid - short - term, holiday stocking weakens, and egg prices may decline if inventory rises; long - term, focus on the extent of chicken culling, and supply pressure may re - emerge in Q4 [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn Important Information - Deep - processing enterprise purchase prices vary: Northeast down 12 yuan/ton to 2155 yuan/ton, North China up 18 yuan/ton to 2370 yuan/ton [3] - Port prices: North weak, South stable. Jinzhou Port down 10 yuan/ton, Shekou Port unchanged [3] - Corn futures warehouse receipts unchanged at 23814 as of September 24 [3] - Wheat - corn price difference in Shandong is + 80 yuan/ton, narrowing by 10 yuan/ton [3] - Corn bidding procurement: 2.15 million tons planned, 1.91 million tons transacted, 89% success rate [3] - August 2025 national industrial feed output is 29.36 million tons, up 3.7% MoM and 3.8% YoY [3] Market Logic - Short - term, support at 2050 - 2150 yuan/ton, pressure from wheat - corn price difference [3] - Mid - term, conduct band trading around new - season corn, with wide - range trading [3] - Long - term, follow import substitution and planting cost pricing, focus on policies [3] Trading Strategy - Mid - long - term, maintain range trading; short - term, look for low - long opportunities. Support for 2511 contract at 2100 - 2130, 2601 contract at 2100 - 2120 [3] Pig Market Review - LH2511 contract closed flat at 12730 yuan/ton yesterday [5] Important Information - National average pig price is 12.51 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg; expected morning prices are weak - stable [5] - July 2025 fertile sow inventory is 40.42 million, 103.64% of normal level; July sow culling up 2.1% MoM [5] - September 24 fattening - standard price difference is 0.2 yuan/jin, narrowing by 0.01 yuan/jin [5] - September 18 weekly average slaughter weight is 124.68 kg, up 0.36 kg [5] - September 24 pig futures warehouse receipts down 59 to 368 [5] - 15,000 tons of central reserve frozen pork will be released on September 28 [5] Market Logic - Short - term, supply exceeds demand, North may stop falling, South remains weak [5] - Mid - term, supply is expected to increase, limiting price increases [5] - Long - term, sow inventory is high, production capacity will continue to materialize [5] Trading Strategy - Near - month contracts follow supply - demand logic, suggest taking profit on short positions; far - month contracts trade on de - capacity expectation difference. Support for 2511 contract at 12300 - 12500, 2601 contract at 12800 - 13000, etc. [5] Egg Market Review - JD2511 contract fell 0.46% to 3056 yuan/500kg yesterday [5] Important Information - Egg prices are mainly stable, main production area unchanged, main sales area down 0.02 yuan/jin [5] - Inventory increased slightly, production link stable, circulation link up 0.02 days [5] - Old hen price is 4.5 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin; September 18 average culling age is 497 days, up 2 days [5] - August in - production laying hen inventory is 1.365 billion, up 0.66% MoM and 5.98% YoY; September estimated at 1.353 billion, down 0.8% MoM [5] Market Logic - Mid - short - term, holiday stocking weakens, egg prices may decline with rising inventory [5] - Long - term, focus on chicken culling, supply pressure may re - emerge in Q4 [5] Trading Strategy - Maintain high - short strategy before large - scale culling. Pressure for 2511 contract at 3090 - 3100, etc. Also, breeding enterprises can consider selling hedging opportunities for 2607 and 2608 contracts [5]