Report Date - September 25, 2025 [4] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile consolidation trend as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is fulfilled and the rubber market enters a weak supply - demand structure - dominated market [5] - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile consolidation trend due to the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals and the rebound of the futures price being suppressed by the moving average [5] - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract may maintain a volatile upward trend under the enhanced geopolitical risks, as Ukraine continuously attacks Russian oil - producing facilities and the US plans tariff sanctions on Russia [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 46.12 million tons, a decrease of 0.36 million tons or 0.76% from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory decreased by 5.07%, and the general - trade inventory increased by 0.04%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points. The inbound rate of general - trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points [7] - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.70%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.30 percentage points [7] - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The logistics industry prosperity index in August 2025 was 50.9%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [8] - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease and a 35% year - on - year increase. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [8] Methanol - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.8132 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 106,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 84,200 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 30,200 tons [9] - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%. The acetic acid operating rate was 75.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.84%. The MTBE operating rate was 57.66%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.33 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.58% [9] - As of September 19, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures盘面 profit was - 183 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/ton [9] - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.3298 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 625,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 395,600 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 487,200 tons. The inland methanol inventory as of the week of September 25, 2025, was 320,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,500 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 116,900 tons [10][11] Crude Oil - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 418, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 70. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.501 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 19,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 301,000 barrels per day [11] - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 415 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 2.152 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.561 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 296,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 504,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 93.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 percentage points [12] - As of September 16, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 98,709 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 16,865 contracts and a 19.13% decrease from the August average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 220,410 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 14,635 contracts and an 8.94% increase from the August average. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market increased significantly [13] 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,800 yuan/ton | + 100 yuan/ton | 15,620 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | - 800 yuan/ton | + 50 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,275 yuan/ton | + 5 yuan/ton | 2,355 yuan/ton | - 3 yuan/ton | - 80 yuan/ton | + 3 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 461.8 yuan/barrel | + 0.3 yuan/barrel | 490.3 yuan/barrel | + 6.0 yuan/barrel | - 28.5 yuan/barrel | - 5.7 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts Rubber - Rubber basis [15] - Rubber 1 - 5 month spread [21] - SHFE rubber futures inventory [17] - Qingdao bonded - area rubber inventory [21] - All - steel tire operating rate trend [19] - Semi - steel tire operating rate trend [23] Methanol - Methanol basis [27] - Methanol 1 - 5 month spread [33] - Methanol domestic port inventory [29] - Methanol inland social inventory [35] - Methanol - to - olefin operating rate change [31] - Coal - to - methanol cost accounting [37] Crude Oil - Crude oil basis [40] - SHFE crude oil futures inventory [46] - US crude oil commercial inventory [42] - US refinery operating rate [48] - WTI crude oil net - position holding change [44] - Brent crude oil net - position holding change [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas Fed's rate - cut will drive a new round of global liquidity easing, opening policy space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. Liquidity easing trading dominates the market, and the risk of Fed's independence may increase the potential long - term rate - cut elasticity. The next Fed meeting is on October 29, and the market fully expects a 25 - bps rate cut. Attention should be paid to US September non - farm and inflation data released in early - mid October. The transmission of Fed's preventive rate cuts to the US real economy takes about 2 - 3 months [6]. - In Q3, China's economic growth slowed down continuously. The funds of existing pro - growth policies are expected to be in place faster. Attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new directions in the "15th Five - Year Plan". Investment data from July to August slowed down significantly, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk that infrastructure funds in Q4 may fall short of expectations. However, the expected GDP growth rates in Q3 and Q4 are 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can still be achieved. If investment and exports continue to decline in September, the probability of the implementation of existing funds and incremental policies in Q4 will increase [6]. - After the domestic and overseas uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may enter a short - term adjustment phase. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, the global loose liquidity and economic recovery expectations driven by fiscal leverage will support risk assets. In the medium - term from Q4 to H1 next year, the expected performance order is equities > commodities > bonds. In Q4, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities such as gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak - dollar trend will continue but at a slower pace. The allocation value of bonds increases after the rise of domestic interest rates, and bonds should be allocated equally with equities in Q4. Gold is for long - term strategic allocation, and rate cuts are the main logic in Q4, with the risk of premature trading of recovery expectations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: After the Fed's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected, providing policy space for China's rate cuts. The market is dominated by liquidity - easing trading. The risk of the Fed's independence may increase the potential long - term rate - cut elasticity. Attention should be paid to the impact of rate cuts on the US real economy. The next Fed meeting is on October 29, and market expectations for a 25 - bps rate cut are high. Pay attention to US September non - farm and inflation data. Historically, the transmission of Fed's preventive rate cuts to the US real economy takes 2 - 3 months [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: Q3 economic growth slowed. Existing pro - growth policy funds are expected to be in place faster. Pay attention to 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new "15th Five - Year Plan" directions. July - August investment data slowed, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk of insufficient infrastructure funds in Q4. However, the annual 5% GDP growth target can still be achieved. If September investment and exports decline, the probability of policy implementation in Q4 will increase [6]. - **Asset Views**: After uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may adjust in the short - term. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, loose liquidity and economic recovery expectations will support risk assets. In the medium - term from Q4 to H1 next year, equities > commodities > bonds. In Q4, the stock market is volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak - dollar trend continues but slows. The allocation value of bonds increases, and they should be allocated equally with equities. Gold is for long - term strategic allocation, with rate cuts as the main Q4 logic and the risk of premature recovery - expectation trading [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: For stock index futures, use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence; for stock index options, continue the hedging and defensive strategy; for treasury bond futures, the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short - term. All are expected to be volatile [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise with a volatile trend, as the Fed restarted the rate - cut cycle in September and the risk of its independence has increased [7]. - **Shipping**: For the container shipping route to Europe, as the peak season in Q3 fades and loading is under pressure, it lacks upward momentum and is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the rate of freight - price decline in September and policy dynamics [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment cools down, the fundamentals still provide support. Products such as steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Driven by a weak dollar and the fermentation of reverse - invoicing issues, base metals tend to strengthen. Most products are expected to be volatile, with some showing an upward - trending volatility [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and the decline of coking coal has affected the chemical industry. Most chemical products are expected to be volatile, with different market logics and influencing factors [9]. - **Agriculture**: Affected by Argentina's tariff policy changes, oilseeds and meals have been hit hard. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Each option variety's strategy report is compiled based on underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, percentage changes, trading volumes, volume changes, open interest, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, methanol, etc [4] 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR - The volume - to - open - interest PCR indicators (volume PCR and open interest PCR) of various energy - chemical options are presented, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [5] 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various energy - chemical option underlying contracts are given, which are determined by the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [6] 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility indicators of various energy - chemical options are provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, changes in weighted implied volatility, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility [7] 3.3 Strategies and Suggestions 3.3.1 Energy - Type Options - **Crude Oil**: Fundamentally, OPEC may discuss early release of production cuts, and Russia has production cut plans. The market has been in a weak - to - range - bound state. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The PDH device maintenance situation is stable, and the market has shown an oversold - rebound pattern. Strategies involve constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.3.2 Alcohol - Type Options - **Methanol**: Port and enterprise inventories are at certain levels, and the market is weak. Strategies include constructing a bear spread combination strategy for put options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory is expected to be in a low - level shock and then a build - up cycle. The market is weak. Strategies involve constructing a bear spread combination strategy for put options, a short - volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.3.3 Polyolefin - Type Options - **Polypropylene**: PE and PP inventories have different trends, and the market is weak. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] 3.3.4 Rubber - Type Options - **Rubber**: Affected by the Southeast Asian rubber - tapping season, the market is in a weak - consolidation state. Strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy [13] 3.3.5 Polyester - Type Options - **PTA**: Social inventory has a slight increase, and the market is weak. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [14] 3.3.6 Alkali - Type Options - **Caustic Soda**: Factory inventories are increasing, and the market is in a downward - shock state. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15] - **Soda Ash**: Factory inventories are decreasing, and the market is in a low - level shock state. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15] 3.3.7 Other Options - **Urea**: Enterprise inventory is high, and the market is in a low - level weak state. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [16] 3.4 Option Charts - The report provides price charts, volume - and - open - interest charts, volume - to - open - interest PCR charts, implied volatility charts, historical volatility cone charts, and pressure - and - support - level charts for various energy - chemical options such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, methanol, etc [17][36][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to increased market concerns about supply tightening, especially the return of geopolitical risk premiums. The attacks on Russian refining and export facilities by Ukraine led to concerns about supply disruptions, verified by the strengthening of diesel crack spreads and traders' bets on price increases. Additionally, the unexpected decline in US crude inventories and lower gasoline and distillate inventories supported the demand side. The short - term support for oil prices has increased, but marginal supply increments will limit the rebound amplitude. It is recommended to conduct unilateral band operations, with WTI in the range of [60, 66], Brent in [64, 69], and SC in [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to expand after volatility increases [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Supply is expected to be abundant due to negative short - term operations and postponed maintenance of some domestic PX plants. Demand is weak as PTA processing fees are low, new PTA plants' commissioning is delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans. PXN is expected to compress, but short - term prices may be supported by geopolitical events and pre - holiday demand. Strategies include short - term long on PX11 or shorting after a rebound [7]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to shrink as new plant commissioning is delayed and maintenance plans are in place. Pre - holiday restocking demand supports the short - term basis, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Absolute prices may be supported by geopolitical factors. Strategies include short - term long on TA or shorting after a rebound, and rolling reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Short - term imports are expected to be low, and inventory is expected to decline. However, the terminal market is weak, and the basis fluctuates at a high level. In the long - term, supply will increase as new plants start up and demand seasonally declines, leading to inventory accumulation. Strategies include selling call options EG2601 - C - 4400 at high prices and reverse arbitrage on EG1 - 5 [7]. - **Short Fiber**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is in the peak season but with limited new orders. Prices are supported at low levels but lack upward momentum, following raw material fluctuations. Strategies are the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk oscillates between 800 - 1100 [7]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply in September is lower than expected due to typhoons, and low prices and pre - holiday restocking demand support prices and processing fees. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Strategies are the same as PTA, and the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to oscillate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [7]. Urea - Urea futures rebounded on September 24 due to expectations of short - term supply contraction and technical repair. Shanxi Tianze plans to shut down some large - scale plants on October 7, which supports market sentiment. Although spot demand is weak, export orders provide some support [14][16]. Methanol - This week, both port and inland inventories decreased, partly due to typhoons in South China. Supply in the inland area is at a high level, and although unplanned maintenance has increased, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inventory pattern in the inland area is healthy, supporting prices. Demand is weak due to the traditional off - season. The overall valuation is neutral. The disk fluctuates between trading the reality of high inventory and weak basis and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the long - term [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is expected to remain high as some plants resume production or start producing, and there are maintenance plans. Demand is weak as most downstream products are in the red, and there are many maintenance plans for downstream plants in September - October. However, continuous de - stocking at ports may provide some support. Prices are driven by geopolitical and macro factors in the short - term. Strategies include BZ2603 following styrene and crude oil fluctuations [23]. - **Styrene**: Downstream demand is fair due to peak - season demand and pre - holiday stocking, but it is mainly for rigid needs. Supply is expected to decrease as overseas plants are under maintenance and exports are expected to increase. Port inventories are accumulating, pressuring prices. Strategies include shorting EB11 on price rebounds and widening the spread of EB11 - BZ11 [23]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The market is weak. Supply is high, and the decline in alumina prices has squeezed the profit margins of domestic alumina enterprises, weakening the support for spot prices. Inventory in North China is rising, while in East China, it is falling due to tight supply and non - aluminum rigid demand. In Shandong, prices may continue to decline before the National Day holiday. Short - selling positions can be held [27]. - **PVC**: The market is also weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. Supply is expected to increase as many plants finish maintenance next week. Demand is limited as downstream product start - up rates are low, and buyers are resistant to high prices. Cost support is provided by rising calcium carbide prices and stable ethylene prices. PVC is expected to stop falling and stabilize during the September - October peak season [27]. Polyolefins - **PP**: Production has decreased recently due to heavy losses in PDH and external - propylene procurement routes, leading to increased unplanned maintenance and lower inventory. - **PE**: Maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up rate is gradually increasing. Inventory in the upstream and mid - stream has decreased this week. More import offers from North America are emerging, and the supply rhythm and import offers need to be monitored. There is pressure on inventory accumulation for the 01 contract [31]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 25, Brent rose 2.48% to $69.31/barrel, WTI fell 0.38% to $64.74/barrel, and SC fell 1.55% to 483.60 yuan/barrel. Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3, increased, while others like WTI M1 - M3 decreased [2]. - **EIA Data**: As of the week ending September 19, 2025, US crude production increased to 1350.1万桶/日, refinery utilization rate decreased to 93%, commercial crude inventory decreased by 60.7万桶, and gasoline and distillate inventories also decreased [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude (November) rose to $69.31/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha rose to $606/ton, etc. [7]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX rose to $812/ton, PX - naphtha spread decreased to 120 [7]. - **PTA - Related**: PTA East - China spot price rose to 4525 yuan/ton, TA01 - TA05 spread decreased [7]. - **MEG - Related**: MEG port inventory decreased to 700,000 tons, and the arrival forecast decreased [7]. - **Downstream Products**: POY150/48 price decreased to 6600 yuan/ton, and polyester bottle - chip price rose to 5804 yuan/ton [7]. Urea - **Futures**: On September 24, the 01 contract rose 0.90% to 1673 yuan/ton, the 05 contract rose 0.64% to 1724 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract rose 0.63% to 1745 yuan/ton [14]. - **Spot**: Shandong (small - particle) urea price remained at 1610 yuan/ton, and FOB China (small - particle) remained at $418/ton [15]. - **Supply**: Domestic urea daily production increased to 19.56 million tons on September 26, and the production start - up rate increased to 83.59% [16]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closed at 2351 yuan/ton on September 24, up 0.34%. The spread between MA2509 and MA2601 widened. The basis of Taicang decreased [19]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory decreased to 31.994%, port inventory decreased to 149.2 million tons, and social inventory decreased to 181.2% [19]. - **Start - up Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate decreased slightly, while downstream external - MTO device start - up rate increased [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: CFR China pure benzene rose to $726/ton, and the spread between pure benzene and naphtha decreased. Port inventory decreased [23]. - **Styrene**: Styrene East - China spot price rose to 6910 yuan/ton, and the basis of EB10 decreased [23]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: On September 24, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's converted - to - 100% price remained at 2500 yuan/ton, and East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price remained at 4740 yuan/ton [27]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry start - up rate decreased to 85.4%, and PVC total start - up rate decreased to 75.4% [27]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry start - up rate increased to 83.7%, and PVC downstream product start - up rates increased slightly [27]. Polyolefins - **Futures**: On September 24, L2601 closed at 7142 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, and PP2601 closed at 6877 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [31]. - **Spot**: East - China PP拉丝 spot price remained at 6720 yuan/ton, and North - China LDPE film - grade spot price rose to 7070 yuan/ton [31]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased to 45.8 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased to 52.0 million tons [31]. - **Start - up Rates**: PE device start - up rate increased to 80.4%, and PP device start - up rate decreased to 74.9% [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental situation will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [1]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are mixed. High inventory still suppresses the price, and the methanol trend is greatly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Urea**: The current valuation is relatively low, but there is a lack of driving factors in reality. It is expected that there will be no large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [6]. - **Rubber**: Adopt a long - term bullish view. In the short - term, it has stabilized, with a neutral or slightly bullish view. Consider short - term long positions on pullbacks and enter and exit quickly [14]. - **PVC**: The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and the export outlook is weakening. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies [17]. - **Styrene**: In the long - term, the BZN spread may recover. When the inventory drawdown inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound. It is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [21]. - **Polyethylene**: The price may fluctuate upwards in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. - **Polypropylene**: There is high inventory pressure in the short - term, and the short - term situation lacks prominent contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. - **PX**: The PX inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue, and there is currently a lack of driving factors. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. - **PTA**: The supply side has many unexpected short - term maintenance, and the overall load center is low. It is recommended to wait and see [34]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: In the fourth quarter, it will turn to inventory accumulation. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of the risk that the weak expectation is not realized [37]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE main crude oil futures rose 7.00 yuan/barrel, or 1.47%, to 482.30 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also showed gains. Singapore ESG oil product weekly data showed changes in gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil inventories [8]. - **Strategy Views**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC has increased production in a small amount, it is believed that this is a stress test on the market. The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamentals support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The price in Taicang rose 18 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia rose 5 yuan/ton. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 8 yuan/ton to 2351 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 93. The 1 - 5 spread rose 4 to - 28 [2]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - side start - up rate has declined, and the demand - side port olefin plants have restarted. The overall demand has improved marginally. However, the high inventory still suppresses the price, and the methanol trend is greatly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, while in Henan it fell 10 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market rose to 1673 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 73. The 1 - 5 spread rose 4 to - 51 [5]. - **Strategy Views**: The futures price has fallen with increasing positions. The domestic supply has recovered, and the demand is weak. The current valuation is relatively low, but there is a lack of driving factors. It is expected that there will be no large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Affected by Super Typhoon "Hagasa", there will be heavy rainfall in some Southeast Asian regions, which is clearly bullish. The EU has postponed the implementation of its anti - deforestation law, with a marginal reduction in bullish factors. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, and that of semi - steel tires was 74.58%. As of September 14, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 123.5 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons from the previous period [11][13]. - **Strategy Views**: Adopt a long - term bullish view. In the short - term, it has stabilized, with a neutral or slightly bullish view. Consider short - term long positions on pullbacks and enter and exit quickly [14]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 28 yuan to 4919 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 179 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 301 yuan/ton. The overall start - up rate of PVC was 77%, a decrease of 3% from the previous period. The demand - side downstream start - up rate was 49.2%, an increase of 1.7% from the previous period [16]. - **Strategy Views**: The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and the export outlook is weakening. Even though the downstream has improved recently, it is still difficult to change the pattern of oversupply. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies [17]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of styrene remained unchanged, while the futures price rose. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward repair space. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit decreased, but the styrene start - up rate continued to rise. The port inventory continued to decline significantly, and the demand - side overall start - up rate of three S products fluctuated upwards [20]. - **Strategy Views**: In the long - term, the BZN spread may recover. When the inventory drawdown inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound. It is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closing price was 7142 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7160 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 44 yuan/ton, a weakening of 34 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 82.28%, an increase of 0.71% from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory and trader inventory both increased slightly [23]. - **Strategy Views**: The market is looking forward to favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance at the end of the third quarter, and there is still support on the cost side. The PE valuation has limited downward space, but the large number of warehouse receipts at the same period in history suppresses the futures price. The overall inventory is at a high level and is being reduced, and the seasonal peak season may be approaching. The price may fluctuate upwards in the long - term [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closing price was 6877 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6870 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 23 yuan/ton, a weakening of 27 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate remained unchanged at 75.43%. The production enterprise inventory decreased, the trader inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [26]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - side still has 145 million tons of planned production capacity, with relatively high pressure. The demand - side downstream start - up rate has rebounded seasonally. Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions. The large number of warehouse receipts at the same period in history suppresses the futures price [27]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 72 yuan to 6602 yuan. The PX CFR rose 9 dollars to 812 dollars. The PX load in China was 86.3%, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous period, and the Asian load was 78.2%, a decrease of 0.8% from the previous period. Some PX plants had maintenance or load adjustments. The PTA load was 75.9%, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous period [30]. - **Strategy Views**: The PX load remains at a high level, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, with a relatively low overall load center. The PTA new plant commissioning is expected to be postponed, and the PX maintenance is also postponed. The PX inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue, and there is currently a lack of driving factors. The PXN is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 70 yuan to 4626 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 55 yuan to 4525 yuan. The PTA load was 75.9%, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous period. Some PTA plants had maintenance, restart, or load reduction. The downstream load was 91.4%, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous period [33]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - side has many unexpected short - term maintenance, and the de - stocking pattern continues. However, due to the weak long - term outlook, the processing fee space is limited. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure are low, but the terminal performance is weak, putting pressure on raw materials. It is recommended to wait and see [34]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 22 yuan to 4234 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 4 yuan to 4301 yuan. The supply - side domestic and overseas plant loads are at a high level, and the domestic supply is relatively high. The port inventory increased by 0.2 tons to 46.7 tons [36]. - **Strategy Views**: In the short - term, the port inventory is expected to be low due to less port arrivals. In the medium - term, with the concentrated arrival of imports and the expected high domestic load, combined with the gradual commissioning of new plants, the inventory will turn to accumulation in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is relatively high year - on - year. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the weak outlook, but beware of the risk that the weak expectation is not realized [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall A - share market rebounded on Wednesday, with the technology sector leading the rise and consumer stocks experiencing a correction. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, but the basis spreads of the main contracts were deeply in a discount state [2][3]. - The prices of precious metals stopped rising and slightly corrected at high levels due to the easing of geopolitical risks, the resilience of the US economy, and the rebound of the US dollar [9]. - The shipping index (European line) EC showed a volatile trend. The market has digested the impact of the previous decline in spot prices, and attention can be paid to the upward opportunities of contracts 12 and 02 when shipping companies raise their quotes in mid - to early October [12]. - The prices of various non - ferrous metals showed different trends. For example, copper prices rose rapidly due to supply concerns, while the price of alumina was in a state of wide - range bottom - level oscillation with limited downward space [12][17]. - The prices of black metals were also volatile. Steel prices continued to oscillate, and the prices of iron ore, coking coal, and coke were affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [41][44][47]. - The prices of agricultural products showed different trends. The purchase of Argentine soybeans by China weakened the expected supply gap of domestic meal products, while the price of live pigs was stable in supply and demand and difficult to improve before the National Day [55][58]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Wednesday, the A - share market opened lower and then oscillated upwards. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.80%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.28%. The technology sector led the rise, while consumer stocks corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, with IF2512 and IH2512 rising 1.69% and 0.94% respectively, and IC2512 and IM2512 rising 3.90% and 3.21% respectively. The basis spreads of the main contracts were deeply in a discount state [2][3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, the market digested the expectation and turned to oscillation. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2511 with an exercise price near 6600 at a light position when the index corrects to collect option premiums [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.41%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.10%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.08%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.03%. The yields of major interest - bearing bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose [5]. - **Funding Situation**: On September 24, the central bank conducted 4015 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 17 billion yuan. However, after the market, the central bank announced that it would conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on September 25, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market is still a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended that investors mainly conduct range operations on a single - side strategy and pay attention to quick entry and exit. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract fluctuates at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: On September 24, the US announced a trade agreement with the EU and a support plan for Argentina, which eased the risk of asset selling in Argentina and reduced the risk - aversion sentiment. The US new home sales increased significantly, and the US dollar index rebounded. International gold prices ended a three - day rising streak, falling 0.74% to $3736.07 per ounce, and international silver prices fell slightly by 0.2% to $43.89 per ounce [7][9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, gold will maintain a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options. For silver, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options when the price fluctuates above $41 [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotations**: As of September 22, the freight quotations for Shanghai - European basic ports in the next six weeks were in a certain range. For example, Maersk's quotation was $840 - 1279/FEU and $1400 - 2038/FEU [11]. - **Shipping Index**: As of September 22, the SCFIS European line index was 1254.92 points, a week - on - week decrease of 14.3%. The Shanghai - Europe freight rate decreased by 9% to $1052/TEU [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of September 24, the global container shipping capacity exceeded 33 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. The eurozone's composite PMI in August was 51, and the US manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7 [11]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The futures market oscillated. The market has digested the impact of the previous decline in spot prices. It is recommended to wait and see in an oscillating market and pay attention to the upward opportunities of contracts 12 and 02 when shipping companies raise their quotes in mid - to early October [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of September 24, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 80045 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper was 80030 yuan/ton [12]. - **Macro**: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and the "dot plot" predicted two more interest rate cuts within the year [13]. - **Supply**: The Grasberg mine accident continued to cause supply concerns. Freeport announced force majeure, and it is expected that the mine will not return to its pre - accident production level until 2027. The production of domestic electrolytic copper in September is expected to decline month - on - month [14]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of copper rod production increased after the decline in copper prices, and the overall spot trading improved [15]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventories decreased, domestic social inventories decreased, and COMEX copper inventories increased [16]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The supply concern of global copper mines supported the copper price. It is recommended to hold long positions, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 81000 - 81500 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Spot**: On September 24, the average spot prices of alumina in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Guangxi, and Guizhou all decreased [17]. - **Supply**: In August 2025, the output of Chinese metallurgical - grade alumina increased month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that the operating capacity will continue to increase slightly in September [18]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, the port inventory of alumina decreased week - on - week, and the total registered quantity of alumina warehouse receipts decreased compared with the previous week [18]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The alumina market is in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". It is expected that the main contract will oscillate in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On September 24, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum was 20680 yuan/ton, and the average premium of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 10 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply**: In August 2025, the output of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the proportion of aluminum water increased slightly [20]. - **Demand**: The downstream entered the traditional peak season, and the orders of profile enterprises improved, with the operating rates of various sectors remaining stable or increasing [20]. - **Inventory**: There was a positive signal in inventory. On September 24, the daily inventory of three - location aluminum ingots decreased by 0.85 tons, and the expectation of an approaching inventory inflection point was enhanced [21]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Although there is uncertainty at the macro level, the fundamentals are gradually improving. It is expected that the short - term aluminum price will oscillate at a high level after a decline, with the main contract referring to the range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [21]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc, Tin, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate) - **Zinc**: The price of zinc showed an oscillating trend. The supply was expected to be loose, and the upward space was limited. The main contract was recommended to refer to the range of 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [28]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore in August remained at a low level, and the supply side provided support. The tin price was expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [29][32]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price oscillated upwards. The output of refined nickel was at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand was stable. The main contract was recommended to refer to the range of 119000 - 124000 yuan/ton [32][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel oscillated slightly upwards. The supply pressure existed, and the demand in the peak season was not significantly released. The main contract was recommended to refer to the range of 12800 - 13200 yuan/ton [37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate oscillated weakly. The supply and demand were in a tight balance during the peak season. The main contract price was expected to oscillate in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [41]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel was stable, with rebar remaining stable and hot - rolled coil rising slightly [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost had support, and the profit of steel decreased from a high level. The profit ranking was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [42]. - **Supply**: The output of iron elements increased year - on - year from January to August, and the output of rebar decreased while that of hot - rolled coil remained at a high level [42]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major steel products was basically flat year - on - year from January to August, and the export of steel maintained a high level [42]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products increased, and it was expected that the inventory center would continue to rise [43]. - **View and Operation Suggestion**: Steel prices were expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. It was recommended to try to go long with a light position and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [43]. Iron Ore - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of mainstream iron ore powder showed a slight change, and the futures price of iron ore oscillated [44]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output, blast furnace operating rate, and blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased, while the steel mill profitability rate decreased slightly [44]. - **Supply**: The global shipment of iron ore decreased week - on - week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased [45]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, the daily average port clearance volume increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [45]. - **View and Operation Suggestion**: The iron ore market was in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. It was recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil [46]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures oscillated and rebounded. The spot price of domestic coking coal was strong, and the price of Mongolian coal rose [47][48]. - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines increased, and the inventory of raw coal and clean coal decreased [48][49]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output continued to rise, the coking operation rate remained stable, and the downstream replenishment demand increased [49]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coal mines, ports, and steel mills decreased, while the inventory of coal washing plants, coking plants, and ports increased [50]. - **View and Operation Suggestion**: It was recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [51]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The second - round price cut of coke by steel mills was implemented, and some coking enterprises began to raise prices [52][54]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants was - 17 yuan/ton [53]. - **Supply**: The daily output of coke of independent coking plants and steel mills remained stable [53]. - **Demand**: The steel mills continued to resume production, and the pig iron output continued to rise slightly [54]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coking plants decreased, while the inventory of steel mills and ports increased [54]. - **View and Operation Suggestion**: It was recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [54]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - **Spot Market**: The spot price of domestic soybean meal showed mixed trends, and the price of rapeseed meal decreased. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the trading volume of rapeseed meal was zero [55]. - **Fundamentals**: China purchased at least 10 ships of Argentine soybeans after Argentina取消谷物和油籽出口关税. The sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was faster than in previous years [55][56]. - **Outlook**: The price of US soybeans was expected to fluctuate in a low - level range. The supply of domestic soybean meal was abundant, and the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal was expected to continue to weaken [57]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs oscillated. The national average price was 12.65 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase [58]. - **Market Data**: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight increased. The enthusiasm of retail farmers and secondary fattening farmers to slaughter increased [58]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand of live pigs were stable, and the price was difficult to improve before the National Day. The market was expected to oscillate and adjust [59]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The spot price of corn in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia was generally weak, while the price in North China and the Huang - Huai region was partially strong. The port price decreased [60]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of corn in the four northern ports decreased week - on - week, and the shipment volume also decreased [60]. - **Outlook**: The corn price was expected to oscillate weakly under the bearish expectation [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including finance, commodities, and shipping, providing insights into market trends, news events, and investment suggestions for different assets [1][2][3][4][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US new home sales in August reached an annualized 800,000 units, significantly above expectations. The US and EU finalized a 15% tariff agreement, leading to a gold price correction of over 1% and a strong rise in the US dollar index [12][13] - Short - term gold prices face a correction risk due to profit - taking, and investors are advised to reduce positions before the holiday [14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Intel is seeking investment and cooperation from Apple, and the US has officially lowered tariffs on EU cars. Fed official Daly's remarks indicate uncertainty in future interest rate cuts [15][16][17] - While there may be short - term disturbances due to valuation concerns, an overall bullish approach is recommended [18] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - South Korea's president met with the US Treasury Secretary, and the UK central bank has internal policy differences. The US has reduced tariffs on EU cars to 15%, and the US dollar is expected to trade in a short - term range [20][21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Eight departments jointly issued a document to promote digital consumption, and Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure. The STAR Market has strengthened, driving the broader market up. The current market is rising on low volume, and investors are advised to take partial profits [22][23][24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation and a 401.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market has declined due to tightened liquidity and rising stock markets. A strategy of holding a steepening curve is recommended [25][26][28] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market anticipates that the USDA's weekly export sales report will show a net increase of 60 - 160 tons in US soybean exports. China is rumored to continue purchasing Argentine soybeans, and ANEC has lowered Brazil's September soybean export forecast [29] - The bearish impact of Argentina's export tax exemption may be fully reflected in the price, and the price is expected to trade in a range. Continued attention should be paid to policy changes [29] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's July palm oil exports decreased, and production and inventory increased. The oil market rebounded slightly, but the short - term rebound space is limited. Investors are advised to wait and see or take small long positions [30][31] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Korea has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Japanese carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils. Global crude steel production in August increased slightly year - on - year. Steel prices have rebounded, but the upward space is restricted by fundamentals. A range - bound approach is recommended before the holiday, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand [32][33][35] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn starch production rate has increased, and inventory has decreased. The current inventory pressure is manageable, and the price difference between rice and flour may be undervalued. Buying to widen the spread may have a safety margin [36][37] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn inventory at the four northern ports has decreased. The price of the 11 - contract has rebounded, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. The 11 - contract is expected to decline more than the 01 - contract after the holiday [37][38] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal at northern ports has remained stable. After the pre - holiday restocking, the coal price is expected to trade in a range around the long - term agreement price [39] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - Some jujubes in Xinjiang are starting to wrinkle, and there are still some green fruits. The futures price is expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the development of jujubes in the production area and the purchasing situation in the sales area [40][41] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - SNIM plans to increase iron ore production by 2031 and has discovered new resources. The terminal finished product inventory has some pressure, but the raw material side is strong. The iron ore price is expected to be well - supported, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and inventory [43] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Orient Hope is conducting maintenance on its polysilicon production line. The polysilicon price is expected to be stable in October. The short - term futures price is expected to trade in a wide range between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [44][48] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China's August import and export data of primary polysiloxane showed mixed trends. The price of industrial silicon is expected to trade between 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but chasing the price up should be done with caution [49][50] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The global copper market had a supply surplus of 101,000 tons from January to July. Grasberg copper mine's accident will lead to a significant production loss, and the copper price is expected to rise in the short term. A short - term long strategy is recommended [51][54][55] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Trump administration is seeking to acquire up to 10% of Lithium Americas. The short - term price may be supported by pre - holiday restocking, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. A short - term cautious approach and a medium - term short - selling strategy are recommended [56][57] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia has suspended 190 mining enterprises, including 39 nickel mines. The nickel price lacks upward momentum, but it has long - term investment value. A positive spread arbitrage opportunity is recommended [58][59] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market is in a deep contango. The domestic lead market is expected to trade in a bullish range. A strategy of buying on dips and a positive spread arbitrage strategy are recommended [60][61] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market has a high cash concentration, and the domestic zinc market is under pressure from the exchange rate. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading, and a positive spread arbitrage strategy is recommended [61][62] 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price in East China has declined. The price is expected to trade in a low - level range in the short term [63][66][67] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US EIA crude oil inventory decreased, and a Russian refinery was attacked. The oil price is expected to be affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term [68][69][70] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The terminal demand for PX has improved structurally, but the PX market is expected to trade in a weak range in the short term [71][73][74] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA market has seen a partial increase in sales, but the short - term outlook is weak. The price is expected to trade in a weak range [75][76][77] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - Urea inventory has increased. The supply pressure is rising, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the export situation and the price range of the 2601 contract [78][79] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has declined locally. The market is expected to be stable, and the downward space of the futures price is limited [80][81][82] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market price is stable. The market is expected to trade in a weak range due to poor fundamentals [83][84][85] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market price is oscillating in a narrow range. The fundamentals are weak, but the low price limits the downward space. Attention should be paid to domestic policy support [86] 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory's export price has increased slightly. The demand may be over - drawn in the short term, and attention should be paid to production cuts and new capacity [90][91] 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market price is stable. A strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances [92][93] 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass market price in Shandong is stable. The futures price has risen due to policy expectations, but the fundamental pressure may limit the upward space. A long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage strategy is recommended [94] 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The China - Europe Railway Express has resumed operation. The container freight rate futures market is expected to be volatile, and a wait - and - see or short - selling strategy for the October contract is recommended [95][96]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on September 24 saw more gains than losses, with the glass main contract rising over 4% and fuel oil main contract increasing over 3% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1456.69 points, up 9.04 points or 0.62% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Glass Industry Insights - The glass main contract experienced a significant increase, with a peak rise of nearly 8% during the trading session, ultimately closing with a 4.74% gain [2] - Market sentiment was driven by rumors of a meeting among glass enterprises and the issuance of a growth stabilization plan for the building materials industry by multiple government departments [2] - Despite the positive sentiment, the glass industry is still at the bottom of the real estate cycle, with weak demand and a need for capacity reduction to address oversupply [2] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Domestic oil-related products rose across the board, with SC crude oil and fuel oil main contracts recording gains of over 1% and 3%, respectively [3] - Concerns over global supply tightening were heightened by recent drone attacks on Russian refineries and potential diesel export bans by the Russian government [3] - Short-term price trends for fuel oil are expected to remain strong due to cost support and recovering demand, although a potential decline in purchasing sentiment is anticipated post-holiday [3] Group 4: Other Commodity Movements - The shipping European line saw a rise, with the main contract increasing over 2% after peaking at over 6% during the session [4] - Oilseed and oil products remained weak, with the main contracts for soybean meal and oil experiencing slight declines, while palm oil showed a small increase due to tightening supply expectations [5][6] - Palm oil prices may rise by approximately 15% as the seasonal high production cycle ends, and potential shortages could arise if Indonesia implements specific policies [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly rising on Wednesday. After the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was fulfilled, the rubber market may be dominated by a weak supply - demand structure, and the contract is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, strengthening in oscillation, and slightly rising on Wednesday. Constrained by the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals, the contract is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, rising in oscillation, and slightly increasing on Wednesday. Due to geopolitical risks such as Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities and potential US tariffs on Russia, the contract is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 46.12 tons, a decrease of 0.36 tons from the previous period, with a decline of 0.76%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 5.07%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.04%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.70%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.30 percentage points [8]. - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year - on - year and a decrease of 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the automobile circulation industry's prosperity. The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation's China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in August 2025 was 50.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [9]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. In the first 8 months of 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market reached 710,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.8132 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 106,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 84,200 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 30,200 tons [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%. The acetic acid operating rate was 75.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.84%. The MTBE operating rate was 57.66%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.33 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.58% [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 183 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 62,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 395,600 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 487,200 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 340,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,600 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 94,200 tons [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 418, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 70. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.482 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 282,000 barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 415 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 2.152 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.561 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 296,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 504,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 93.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 percentage points [13]. - As of September 16, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 98,709 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 16,865 contracts and a 19.13% decrease from the August average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 220,410 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 14,635 contracts and an 8.94% increase from the August average [14]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,650 yuan/ton | +125 yuan/ton | - 950 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,270 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,358 yuan/ton | +15 yuan/ton | - 88 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 454.6 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 484.3 yuan/barrel | +11.2 yuan/barrel | - 29.7 yuan/barrel | - 11.1 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: The report mentions a chart of rubber basis, but no specific analysis is provided [16]. - Methanol: The report mentions relevant charts but no specific analysis is provided [28]. - Crude Oil: The report mentions relevant charts but no specific analysis is provided [41].

黄金方面：今年黄金已上涨超44%，各国央行持续增购黄金，欧洲央行的调查数据显示，全球央行黄金 储备总量达到3.6万吨。近三年来，全球央行每年增持黄金超过1000吨，是过去十年平均水平的两倍。 本周美联储官员密集发表讲话，芝加哥联储主席格尔斯比表示，美国经济面临经济增长放缓和劳动力市 场疲软的双重压力，在降息的问题上需要保持谨慎。利率可以逐步的下调，但通胀仍高于目标，不宜激 进地降息。 来源：智昇财论 智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，近日多位美联储官员发表讲话，一部分的表述鹰派，对通胀表示担 忧，降息持谨慎态度；另一部分则呼吁降息，美联储内部分歧加大。 技术面：黄金周线月线多头趋势，不断刷新历史高点。小时图来看，黄金昨日（9月23日）晚间开始回 落，在3755美元一线获得支撑，日内继续上涨的概率大，日内上方可以先看向高点3790美元一线。 原油方面：近期，欧洲正在加大对俄罗斯能源出口的制裁，包括出口价格的下调以及通过法案提前一年 结束购买俄罗斯能源。同时，特朗普敦促欧洲尽快地停止购买俄罗斯能源，并试图切断其主要资金来 源，对印度的采购行为征收50%的关税。 今天凌晨，美国至9月19日当周API原油库存数据，录得 ...