1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward room requires greater production cuts. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China may discuss the tariff issue of rapeseed products, and the current domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively large, with a weak real - world fundamental situation. However, the inversion of soybean crushing margins provides some support to prices. With both bullish and bearish factors intertwined, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Market Review - **External Market**: This week, US soybean prices rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the CBOT soybean March contract closed at 1062.75 cents per bushel, up 16.75 cents per bushel from the previous week, a 1.6% increase. The March - May contract spread of CBOT soybeans was - 12 cents per bushel, up 1.5 cents per bushel from the previous week [9]. - **Domestic Market**: This week, the prices of protein meal rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the soybean meal May contract closed at 2786 yuan per ton, up 37 yuan per ton from the previous week, a 1.37% increase. The rapeseed meal May contract closed at 2391 yuan per ton, up 68 yuan per ton from the previous week, a 2.93% increase. Regarding spreads, the May - September contract spread of soybean meal was - 90 yuan per ton, up 23 yuan per ton from the previous week; the May - September contract spread of rapeseed meal was - 60 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis of the soybean meal May contract was 354 yuan per ton, up 24 yuan per ton from the previous week; the basis of the rapeseed meal May contract was 162 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan per ton from the previous week. The May soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 448 yuan per ton, up 48 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. Industry Information - According to USDA export sales data, as of the week ending January 1st, US soybean exports were 880,000 tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous week; the cumulative exports of soybeans in the current year were 28.58 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.46 million tons. Among them, soybean exports to China in that week were 470,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons from the previous week; the cumulative exports to China in the current year were 6.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.97 million tons. - According to MYSTEEL data, as of the week ending January 2nd, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 2.25 million tons, an increase of 1.08 million tons from the previous week; the port inventory of sample soybeans was 8.23 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 530,000 tons. The operating rate of sample oil mills was 50.75%, a year - on - year increase of 0.14 percentage points; the soybean meal inventory of sample oil mills was 1.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 450,000 tons. - The USDA will release the December monthly supply - demand data and quarterly inventory report on January 12th. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to visit China from January 13th to 17th, and this visit will focus on four major issues: trade, energy, agriculture, and international security [9]. Fundamental Assessment - The assessment of soybean meal fundamentals shows that there are both bullish and bearish factors. The 5 - month contract basis is + 354 yuan per ton, the US soybean 3 - 5 spread is - 12 cents per bushel, the soybean import crushing margin is - 21 yuan per ton, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread is 448 yuan per ton. The international soybean supply is in the South American planting season, the domestic supply has high inventory but is starting to destock, the current apparent consumption is relatively high, and there are also factors such as the Sino - US trade war. The overall conclusion is that with both bullish and bearish factors intertwined, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [11]. Trading Strategy Recommendations - For both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the futures and spot market, including the spot prices of soybean meal in Guangdong Dongguan and rapeseed meal in Guangdong Huangpu, the basis of the main contracts, monthly spreads, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [19][22][25][28]. 3.3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: The report shows charts of US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - to - excellent rate, with data sources from the USDA and the research center of WK Futures [34][37]. - **Weather Conditions**: Charts of precipitation observations of Brazilian, US, and Argentine soybeans compared with the same period of the year are presented, as well as a summary of the weather conditions in the main soybean - producing areas, with data sources from WORLD AG WEATHER and the research center of WK Futures [40][42]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Multiple charts show the US soybean's current and next - year market - year cumulative contract volume, exports to China, and China's monthly imports of soybeans and rapeseeds, with data sources from the USDA, customs, and the research center of WK Futures [47][50][53]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Charts of the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills are presented, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [56]. - **Brazilian Soybean Export and Shipment to China**: Charts show the monthly export volume of Brazilian soybeans, exports to China, weekly and cumulative shipments to China, with data sources from SECEX, MYSTEEL, and the research center of WK Futures [59][62][65]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Charts of soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills are presented, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [70]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Charts of the soybean meal and rapeseed meal inventories of coastal major oil mills are presented, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [73]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: Charts of the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas are presented, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [76]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Protein Meal Demand**: Charts of the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal are presented, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of WK Futures [80]. - **Breeding Profit**: Charts of the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers are presented, with data sources from WIND and the research center of WK Futures [82].

Core Viewpoint - The current commodity market is experiencing a complex transition from a liquidity-driven, euphoric "fill-the-gap" rally to a new phase characterized by a tug-of-war between narratives and realities, leading to significant differentiation among commodities [18]. Market Performance - The recent market performance indicates that the idea of a "super bull market" where all commodities rise together may be an unrealistic wish [2]. - The rally began in mid-December 2022, driven by simultaneous easing policies from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and domestic macro policies, which boosted market confidence and liquidity [2]. Market Dynamics - The market is currently facing a "cold reality" of extreme differentiation, where the price of crude oil remains weak, and some commodities, like polysilicon, have seen sharp declines due to high costs that downstream industries cannot absorb [3]. - The market is influenced by a mix of long-term narratives (such as monetary easing, energy transition, and geopolitical tensions) and short-term realities (like demand pressures and policy responses) [4][9]. Historical Context - Historical commodity supercycles have been driven by structural forces and have lasted decades, with five notable cycles identified over the past two centuries, each linked to significant industrialization and geopolitical events [11][12]. - The current market may not be in a full-fledged supercycle but rather in a "strong cycle" or "structural market" driven by specific narratives and supply constraints [14]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to see increased differentiation, with a return to a broad-based rally being unlikely. Different commodities will follow their own fundamentals, with those tied closely to long-term narratives likely to show stronger resilience [15]. - Volatility is anticipated to become the new norm, with market sentiment being highly sensitive to macro data, policy signals, and industry news [15]. - The ability of the market to find upward momentum will depend on whether real consumption and inventory replenishment can meet the high prices, rather than just remaining at a financial level [16]. Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to focus on the driving logic behind commodities rather than trying to predict market tops or bottoms, and to accept that volatility will be a primary characteristic of the market [17]. - Risk management should be prioritized over the pursuit of high returns, especially in a high-volatility environment [17].

Core Insights - In 2025, the total import and export volume between Vietnam and Germany is expected to exceed $13.66 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.6% and accounting for approximately 20% of Vietnam's total trade with the European Union [1] Trade Structure - Vietnam's exports to Germany are projected to exceed $9.5 billion, with a year-on-year increase of about 20%, making up around 18% of Vietnam's total exports to the EU [1] - Imports from Germany are estimated at approximately $4.1 billion, which constitutes about 25% of Vietnam's total imports from the EU [1] Agricultural and Seafood Exports - Exports of agricultural and seafood products from Vietnam to Germany are expected to surpass $1.9 billion, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 64% [1] - Coffee exports alone are projected to exceed $1.22 billion, with a remarkable growth of 103% in export value and a 48.5% increase in export volume [1] - Germany is currently the largest importer of Vietnamese coffee, accounting for 13.7% of Vietnam's total coffee exports [1] - Other agricultural exports to Germany are also on the rise, including seafood exports exceeding $224.55 million (up 11%), cashew exports over $215.62 million (up 42%), and chili exports surpassing $123.76 million (up 36%) [1] Processed and Industrial Goods Exports - Exports of processed and industrial goods from Vietnam to Germany are expected to exceed $6.97 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13% [1] - Notable categories include computer, electronic products, and accessories, with exports exceeding $1.38 billion (up 31%), machinery, equipment, and accessories exceeding $1.43 billion (up 8%), and textile exports surpassing $905 million (up 14%) [1]

Group 1: Export Forecasts - Thailand's total export value is expected to shrink by 1.2% in 2026, primarily due to the potential expansion of U.S. tariff measures and a slowing global trade outlook [1] - The export growth to major markets is projected to slow down, with key products experiencing declines [1] Group 2: Electronic Products - The export value of Thailand's electronic products is anticipated to decrease by approximately 3.1% in 2026, mainly due to pressures in the U.S. market, particularly for integrated circuits and semiconductor products facing tariff risks under Section 232 [1] - Other electronic products, such as hard disk drives and mobile phone components, are also expected to see a slowdown after previous export acceleration [1] Group 3: Home Appliances - Thailand's home appliance export value is forecasted to decline by 1.5% in 2026, primarily due to a slowdown in air conditioner and refrigerator exports, partly because some production bases have shifted from Thailand to Vietnam [1] Group 4: Automotive and Parts - The export value of Thailand's automotive sector is expected to shrink by 3.0% in 2026, driven by increasing competition from Chinese products [1] - Additionally, stricter carbon emission and safety standards in Australia, a key export market, pose further challenges for Thai automotive exports [1] - The automotive parts exports to the U.S. are predicted to be significantly impacted by Section 232 import tariffs [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Thailand's agricultural product export value is projected to decrease by 1.4% in 2026, mainly due to stable prices and intensified global market competition, particularly with rice exports facing pressure from India's expanding exports [2] - Agricultural production is also expected to decline due to a shift from favorable La Niña conditions in 2025 to a neutral state, potentially leading to water shortages for agriculture [2] Group 6: Agro-Industrial Products - The export value of Thailand's agro-industrial products is expected to maintain growth, but the growth rate will slow to 1.0% in 2026 [3]

就出口结构来看，黑胡椒占据主导地位，出口额13.7亿美元，白胡椒出口额2.888亿美元。 （原标题：2025年越南胡椒出口额达16.6亿美元） 《税务、海关在线》1月8日报道，根据越南胡椒香料协会（VPSA）统计，2025年越南胡椒出口量 为247,482吨，同比下降1.2%，出口总值为16.6亿美元，同比增长26%，创越南胡椒出口额历史新高。与 2024年相比，平均出口价格大幅上涨，其中黑胡椒价格每吨6607美元，上涨36.2%；白胡椒价格每吨 8629美元，上涨33.6%。 就市场来看，美国仍是越南胡椒最大出口市场，出口量为 50,577 吨，占出口总量的 22.3%（同比 下降23.8%）。其他几个出口市场均呈正增长，其中：出口至阿联酋为22,232吨，同比增长35.6%，占出 口总量的9%；出口至中国为19,923吨，同比增长88%，占出口总量的8.1%；出口至印度为12,499吨，同 比增长17.7%。 ...

Industry - The industry under research is agriculture products [1] Core Viewpoints - For soymeal, the domestic market is expected to face a potential supply shortage in Q1 2026, with the 03 contract stronger than the 05 contract. The price of soymeal will be affected by factors such as US soybean exports, Brazilian soybean production, and domestic soybean imports and crushing [9][10] - For eggs, the spot price is expected to enter a seasonal peak, with the 02 and 03 contracts likely to strengthen in basis. The far - month contracts may have potential due to the expected inflection point in inventory, and attention should be paid to the replenishment situation [48] - For sugar, the raw sugar index is expected to maintain a sideways shock, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to have a shock market. Attention should be paid to the 60 - day moving average resistance level [71][72] - For cotton, the short - term cotton price faces callback pressure at the integer - level resistance, and the medium - to - long - term trend of going long at low levels remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the actual reduction in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in the 2026/27 season and the pre - Spring Festival restocking by downstream enterprises [92] Breakdown by Directory Soymeal Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot prices of coastal soymeal rose as of January 9, with Dalian at 3240 yuan/ton (+80), Rizhao at 3160 yuan/ton (+80), Zhangjiagang at 3150 yuan/ton (+50), and Dongguan at 3140 yuan/ton (+60) [8] - The US soybean futures rebounded after a previous decline, mainly due to the digestion of the bearish factors of Brazilian bumper harvest and weak US soybean exports. The domestic soymeal followed the external market and was relatively strong, especially the 03 contract. The 05 contract's rebound space is limited [9][10] Core Points - **Soybean Planting**: The USDA December report showed that the new - season US soybean planting area decreased, but the yield per unit increased. The South American soybean production is expected to be high, with Brazil's production estimated to reach 1.75 billion tons and Argentina's at 48.5 million tons. The planting progress in Brazil is almost complete, and the growth situation is good. Argentina's planting rate is 88.3% as of January 7 [11][12][13] - **US Soybean Exports**: As of January 1, the weekly shipment volume, net sales volume, and cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased year - on - year. The US and China reached a trade agreement, but the commercial procurement is restricted by the 13% tariff [19] - **Domestic Soybean Import and Crushing**: As of January 8, the crushing profit of imported soybeans varied. The soybean crushing volume and operating rate decreased, and the import volume and inventory situation showed seasonal changes [27][28][30] - **Soymeal Transaction and Inventory**: As of January 2, the domestic main oil mills' soymeal inventory increased. The trading volume was affected by factors such as Sino - US trade frictions and the suspension of imported soybean auctions [34][37] - **Basis and Inter - month Spread**: As of January 9, the 05 contract basis of soymeal was about 438.86, and the 3 - 5 spread was 309. The basis is expected to be strong in shock, and the 3 - 5 spread may continue to be strong [40] - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 8, the number of domestic soymeal registered warehouse receipts was 25,410, at a relatively high level in the same period of history [45] Eggs Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - The spot price of eggs rose this week, and the futures near - month contracts were slightly stronger, while the far - month contracts declined. The 02 and 03 contracts are expected to strengthen in basis, and attention should be paid to the far - month contracts' potential due to inventory changes [48] Data Summary - **Inventory and Replenishment**: As of December 2025, the national laying - hen inventory was at a high level in the same period of history, with a slight decline. The replenishment momentum was weak, and the proportion of different - age - group laying hens changed [49][50][53] - **Cost, Income, and Breeding Profit**: As of January 8, the egg spot price rose, the feed cost was at a medium level, the egg - chick price was at a medium - low level, and the breeding profit was at a very low level [58] - **Culled Hens**: The culling volume was relatively high but slightly declined, the culling age was stable, and the culled - hen price was at a low level in the same period of history [59] - **Demand, Inventory, and Pig Price**: As of January 8, the egg sales volume was at a low level in the same period of history, the inventory was relatively high, and the pig price was at a low level in the same period of history [65] Sugar - The raw sugar index slightly rebounded, and the Zhengzhou sugar index strengthened in shock. The spot prices in Guangxi and Yunnan increased, and the basis narrowed. The 5 - 9 spread strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased. The production in Brazil and India will affect the sugar price [71][72][74] Cotton Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - The external cotton market slightly recovered, and the Zhengzhou cotton reached the resistance level and then fell back. The domestic spot market trading was slightly weak, and the pure - cotton yarn market maintained rigid demand. The overseas market was affected by tariffs, and the domestic market should pay attention to the planting area change and the pre - Spring Festival restocking [90][91][92] Core Points - **Cotton - Producing Countries**: The USDA December report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation in the 2025/26 season, with the opening inventory increasing, production and trade volume decreasing, and the closing inventory increasing [93] - **US Cotton Exports**: As of November 30, the net signing and shipment volume of US cotton showed different trends, and the cumulative signing and shipment volume also changed compared with the previous year [100] - **Textile Enterprises**: As of December 26, the cotton and yarn inventories of textile enterprises changed, and the load indexes of yarn and grey - cloth production decreased [102] - **Basis and Inter - month Spread**: As of January 8, the spot basis of cotton increased, and the 1 - 5 spread also increased [115] - **CFTC Position and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 30, the non - commercial net position of US cotton increased, and as of January 8, the domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts increased [119]

Core Viewpoint - The joint initiative by 25 agricultural industry associations aims to enhance the safety and quality of agricultural products through the implementation of the "Quality Safety Commitment Certificate Management Measures" starting February 1, 2026 [2][3][5]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has officially released the management measures for the quality safety commitment certificate, marking a significant improvement in the agricultural product quality safety regulatory system [2][3]. - The initiative is a response to the policy call to effectively implement the quality commitment certificate system in Guangdong [4]. Group 2: Industry Collaboration - The 25 agricultural associations have united to promote a new industry ethos centered on "using certificates, keeping promises, ensuring safety, and promoting development" [5][6]. - The initiative emphasizes the importance of agricultural product quality safety for public health and social stability [7]. Group 3: Action Directions - The initiative outlines four main action directions: 1. **Responsibility Implementation**: Producers and purchasers must recognize the legal obligation to issue commitment certificates, enhancing product competitiveness and consumer safety [14][15]. 2. **Certificate Standardization**: Strict adherence to the management measures is required for issuing and maintaining certificates, ensuring quality control throughout production [17][19]. 3. **Collaborative Efforts**: All stakeholders in the supply chain should work together to verify and display certificates, fostering a trustworthy agricultural product supply chain [20][22]. 4. **Public Awareness**: Encouragement for businesses to prominently display certificates and participate in promotional activities to enhance public recognition of the commitment certificate [23][25]. Group 4: Participating Associations - The initiative is supported by various associations, including the Guangdong Provincial Agricultural Quality Safety Association, Guangdong Provincial Agricultural Industrialization Leading Enterprises Association, and many others, totaling 25 associations [27][28].

1. Report's Overall Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: The strengthening of the US dollar led to the liquidation of long positions in ICE raw sugar. The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming in China remained stable. There were changes in the crushing and export data of India and Brazil, a decrease in China's imports, and a year-on-year decline in sugar production in Guangxi. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate strongly, but upward pressure is gradually emerging [3]. - **Cotton**: The market is currently dominated by the strong expectation of tight supply - demand in the new year and a decline in next year's production. However, the downstream cotton yarn circulation has slowed down, and the cotton price has risen strongly while the cotton yarn price has struggled to follow. The spinning profit of yarn mills has been squeezed, and the increasing gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices may increase the possibility of imported yarn substitution. Some long - position funds in cotton have also left the market for profit - taking. The cotton planting industry chain conference in Xinjiang may announce policy optimization directions for 2026, which may increase the volatility of cotton prices. If the subsidy policy for cotton planting in Xinjiang does not meet expectations, the cotton price may fall again due to the departure of funds, but there is still upward potential in the future under the unchanged supply expectation for this year [14]. - **Apple**: Recently, the market has refocused on the shortage of deliverable goods, and both near - and far - month contracts are expected to rise further. Additionally, as the pre - Spring Festival stocking period approaches, cold storage facilities are gradually packing goods, and attention should be paid to the stocking situation [19]. - **Jujube**: In the short term, jujube prices may remain in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to downstream purchasing. In the long term, the overall supply - demand of new - season jujubes in China is relatively loose, and prices will continue to face downward pressure [27]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Sugar - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On January 9, 2026, SR01 closed at 5310 with a daily increase of 0.19% and a weekly increase of 0.87%. Other contracts also showed different price changes and spreads [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of Nanning - SR01 on January 8, 2026, was 50, with a daily increase of 7 and a weekly decrease of 39. The basis of Kunming - SR01 was - 80, with a daily increase of 7 and a weekly decrease of 29. Similar data were provided for other contracts [9]. - **Import Prices**: The quota - in price of Brazilian sugar on January 9, 2026, was 4079, with a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 67. The quota - out price was 5168, with a daily increase of 65 and a weekly decrease of 88. Similar data were provided for Thai sugar [12]. 3.2 Cotton - **Futures Prices**: On January 9, 2026, cotton 01 closed at 14730, down 110 or 0.74%; cotton 05 closed at 14675, down 65 or 0.44%; cotton 09 closed at 14860, down 70 or 0.47%. For cotton yarn, 01 closed at 20225, 05 closed at 20760, down 85 or 0.41%, and 09 closed at 20970, up 60 or 0.29% [15]. - **Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1255, up 3; cotton 01 - 05 was 55, down 45; cotton 05 - 09 was - 185, up 5; cotton 09 - 01 was 130, up 40; the flower - yarn spread was 6060, unchanged; the domestic - foreign cotton spread was 3393, up 243; the domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 26, unchanged [15]. 3.3 Apple - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On January 9, 2026, AP01 closed at 9999, unchanged with a weekly increase of 0.49%; AP03 closed at 9742, up 1.19% with a weekly increase of 4.8%. Spot prices for different varieties of apples remained mostly unchanged [20]. - **Spreads and Other Indicators**: AP01 - 05 was 468, up 12.5% with a weekly increase of 2.18%. The main contract basis was - 457, up 36.01% with a weekly decrease of 1271.79% [20]. 3.4 Jujube - **Futures Spreads**: Information on jujube futures spreads (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) over different time periods was provided, showing historical price differences [28][30]. - **Price Trends**: The price trends of Xinjiang jujube main - producing areas and main - selling areas were presented, including the prices in Aksu, Alar, Kashgar, Hebei, and Henan [31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the lack of a strict sequential pattern in the rotation of commodity markets during bull cycles, emphasizing that the performance of different sectors is influenced by macroeconomic conditions and the fundamentals of the commodities themselves [2][18]. Group 1: Historical Analysis of Commodity Bull Markets - Historical reviews show that previous commodity bull markets do not follow a strict "gold first, silver follows, copper confirms, oil leads, and agriculture ends" rotation sequence [18]. - The analysis of four major commodity bull markets since 2000 indicates that agricultural products tend to perform strongly in the later stages of bull markets, exhibiting a lagging upward trend [18]. - Each commodity sector's performance order and intensity are fundamentally driven by unique macroeconomic environments (such as monetary policy and economic cycle phases) and their own fundamentals (supply, demand, inventory) [18]. Group 2: Current Market Sentiment and Trends - The current commodity market sentiment indicators are approaching an overheating warning line, suggesting an increased risk of short-term market corrections [20]. - Since June 2025, there has been a continuous inflow of funds into the commodity market, with a notable shift from precious metals and non-ferrous metals to other sectors [21][23]. - The current market structure shows a strength in non-ferrous and precious metals, while the black and chemical sectors are relatively weak, indicating a need for effective rotation to sustain upward momentum [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The protein meal market: The CBOT soybeans rebounded slightly this week. The domestic soybean meal futures followed the trend of US soybeans and closed higher. The market is waiting for the USDA report next Monday. The domestic soybean meal spot transactions increased, and the short - term basis remained firm. The long - term trend depends on factors such as the USDA report, South American weather, and the outcome of China - Canada talks [6]. - The oil market: The US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil closed higher this week. The domestic oil market showed a differentiated trend. The overall trend of oils this week was soybean oil > palm oil > rapeseed oil. The international oil market may oscillate strongly, and the domestic oil market will follow the international market. The progress of China - Canada economic and trade relations is the key to the trend of rapeseed oil next week [61][124]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis - **Market trend**: The CBOT soybeans rebounded slightly from the bottom last week. The domestic soybean meal futures followed the US soybeans and closed higher. The domestic soybean meal spot transactions increased, and the basis remained firm. However, the news of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China and the uncertainty of domestic imported soybean auctions affected the market [6]. - **US soybean export**: The US soybean export inspection volume increased by 27% from the previous week but decreased by 24% year - on - year. As of January 1, 2026, the total export inspection volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 16.401241 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 45.3% [11]. - **South American market**: In Brazil, the growth conditions of summer crops are good, with appropriate rainfall in the south. In Argentina, the northern region has sufficient rainfall, while the southern region is dry, which may affect the growth of crops [21][22]. - **Domestic market**: The domestic soybean inventory is at a relatively high level, and the spot price is bullish. The soybean crushing profit has rebounded, but the futures crushing profit still has a certain loss. The soybean opening rate of domestic oil mills has decreased, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased slightly [37][46]. 3.2 Oil Market Analysis - **Market trend**: The US soybean oil oscillated and closed higher, and the Malaysian palm oil oscillated higher. The domestic oil market showed a differentiated trend. Soybean oil followed the US soybean oil and the import cost to rise, palm oil rebounded after a low - level oscillation, and rapeseed oil rose first and then fell [61]. - **International oil information**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to rise to a seven - year high in December. The Indian palm oil imports may fall to an eight - month low in December. Indonesia may increase the export tax on palm oil and seal up palm oil plantations [64][66]. - **Domestic oil inventory**: As of the end of the first week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils decreased slightly week - on - week, with a year - on - year increase. The soybean oil inventory decreased, the palm oil inventory increased, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased [83]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Seasonal analysis**: Seasonal indices of various products such as US soybeans, soybean meal, and domestic oils are provided, showing the historical seasonal trends of these products [114][117][119]. - **Next - week market outlook**: Technically, the short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of soybean meal are intertwined; those of rapeseed meal are bearish; those of soybean oil are bullish in the short - term and long - term and intertwined in the medium - term; those of palm oil are intertwined; and those of rapeseed oil are bearish. Fundamentally, for protein meal, the USDA report and South American weather are the focuses, and the outcome of China - Canada talks will affect the rapeseed meal market. For oils, the international oil market may oscillate strongly, and the domestic market will follow. The progress of China - Canada economic and trade relations is the key to the rapeseed oil market [123][124].