1. Report Information - Report Name: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: March 18, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot prices for April have been significantly raised, but cargo volume remains light. The supply-demand fundamentals show that it's still the off - season after the Spring Festival, with high运力 supply in March and April. The Red Sea re - navigation plan is slowed by the Middle - East situation, which can relieve some运力 pressure but can't change the oversupply situation. Geopolitical conflicts may cause short - term strengthening of the index but also lead to sharp corrections. Consider shorting the 04 off - season contract when the spot and futures converge in late March, and going long on the 07 and 08 peak - season contracts [7]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: April quotes have been greatly increased. For example, the Shanghai - Rotterdam route's March second - half quotes are between $2360 - 3230 per big container, with a median of about $2750. Airlines like CMA CGM, HPL, and ONE have offered April quotes in the range of $3793 - 4855, with a median of $4030 - 4040. However, cargo volume is still light, and the Middle - East route has high quotes but low transactions [7]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: It's the off - season after the Spring Festival. Short - term tariff issues are unlikely to trigger exporters' rush to ship, and the demand for photovoltaic exports is limited. The运力 supply in March and April is at a high level. Although the Strait of Hormuz blockade doesn't affect the European route, the Red Sea re - navigation plan is delayed due to the Middle - East situation, which can ease the运力 pressure but can't change the oversupply pattern [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short the 04 off - season contract when the spot and futures converge in late March, and go long on the 07 and 08 peak - season contracts [7]. 3.2 Industry News - **Overall Index**: Affected by the continuous geopolitical tension, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index rose by 14.9% to 1710.35 on March 13 [8]. - **European Routes**: European economic uncertainty has increased due to geopolitical conflicts. The freight rate of the Asia - Europe route has fluctuated more. On March 13, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports rose 11.4% to $1618 per TEU, and to Mediterranean basic ports rose 13.0% to $2666 per TEU [8]. - **North American Routes**: Energy prices are rising, and the US economy faces challenges. The transport demand in the North American market is weak, but the spot booking price is rising. On March 13, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports rose 15.9% and 14.5% to $2249 per FEU and $3111 per FEU respectively [9]. - **Persian Gulf Routes**: Due to the tense geopolitical situation, some shipping companies have to detour, resulting in a sharp drop in cargo volume but large fluctuations in freight rates. On March 13, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Persian Gulf basic ports rose 40.8% to $3220 per TEU [9]. - **Australia and New Zealand Routes**: The market supply - demand is stable but lacks growth momentum. The average cabin utilization rate in Shanghai Port is about 95%, and the spot booking price has dropped. On March 13, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Australia and New Zealand basic ports fell 6.7% to $624 per TEU [9]. - **South American Routes**: The transport supply - demand is balanced. The cargo volume has decreased, and the freight rate has slightly dropped after rising last period. On March 13, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to South American basic ports fell 2.3% to $2559 per TEU [9]. - **Japanese Routes**: The transport demand is stable, and the freight rate remains unchanged. On March 13, the China - Japan route freight rate index was 957.78 points [9]. - **Geopolitical News**: Trump said Iran is willing to negotiate a cease - fire but the conditions are not good. Iran's Foreign Minister said Iran will continue to defend. Iran has launched attacks on US and Israeli targets. The US plans to form a "convoy alliance" in the Strait of Hormuz. Fuel prices have risen due to geopolitical tensions, and shipping companies like CMA CGM and Mediterranean Shipping have implemented emergency fuel surcharges [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: On March 16, 2026, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1556.49, up 0.7% from March 9; the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1109.11, down 1.1% from March 9 [11]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Quotes**: Included data on contracts EC2604 - EC2612, such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change on March 17 [6]. - **Shipping - Related Data Trends**: Provided various shipping - related data trend charts, including container ship运力 in Europe, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current gold price shows a sideways trend. In the context of the US - Iran war, the sharp rise in oil prices boosts market inflation expectations and makes the market re - evaluate the US economy's ability to withstand energy shocks. The US Q4 2025 GDP was significantly revised down to 0.7%, partly due to the government shutdown, but consumer resilience remains. In January 2026, the PCE and core PCE data were 2.8% and 3.1% year - on - year respectively, still significantly higher than the Fed's 2% policy target, with the core PCE data reaching a one - year high. Against the background of rising energy prices, price upward pressure may intensify. The upcoming FOMC meeting is likely to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged and maintain a data - dependent decision - making framework without presetting future policy paths. In the short term, precious metal prices are difficult to break out of the range. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 1050 - 1160 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 18700 - 22300 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Precious Metal Prices**: Shanghai Gold fell 0.16% to 1114.36 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver fell 1.88% to 20088.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold fell 0.04% to 5006.30 US dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver fell 0.84% to 79.25 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.20%, and the US dollar index was 99.55 [2]. - **Economic Data**: The US Q4 2025 GDP was significantly revised down to 0.7%, partly due to the government shutdown. In January 2026, the US PCE price index rose 2.8% year - on - year, the core PCE rose to 3.1% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, still significantly higher than the Fed's 2% policy target. The one - year inflation expectation in March was stable at 3.4%, and the long - term expectation slightly dropped from 3.3% to 3.2% [2]. - **Geopolitical Events**: Iranian officials were killed in an air strike. US President Trump was angry that his allies were reluctant to participate in the escort operation in the Strait of Hormuz, criticized the UK and French leaders, and said that the issue of the US withdrawing from NATO was worth considering [3]. 3.2 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **COMEX Gold**: The open interest increased by 1.02% to 41.40 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.49% to 1003 tons. The LBMA gold closing price decreased by 0.99% to 4994.85 US dollars/ounce. The SHFE gold closing price decreased by 0.19% to 1116.20 yuan/gram, the trading volume decreased by 32.08% to 23.80 million lots, the open interest decreased by 0.43% to 31.03 million lots, the inventory decreased by 0.10% to 105.32 tons, and the settled funds decreased by 0.62% to 554.23 billion yuan. The AuT + D trading volume decreased by 23.82% to 39.20 tons, and the open interest decreased by 2.08% to 229.93 tons [6]. - **COMEX Silver**: The open interest increased by 1.88% to 11.55 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.50% to 10510 tons. The LBMA silver closing price decreased by 5.68% to 78.95 US dollars/ounce. The SHFE silver closing price increased by 0.03% to 20308.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume decreased by 27.41% to 88.84 million lots, the open interest decreased by 1.08% to 47.40 million lots, the inventory increased by 6.97% to 353.76 tons, and the settled funds decreased by 1.05% to 259.88 billion yuan. The AgT + D trading volume decreased by 40.16% to 172.51 tons, and the open interest increased by 0.02% to 2887.258 tons [6]. 3.3 ETF Holdings - **Gold ETFs**: The iShare US gold holding decreased by 0.29% to 485.73 tons; the GBS UK, SGBS Switzerland holdings remained unchanged; the PHAU UK holding decreased by 0.03% to 53.81 tons; the GOLD UK holding decreased by 0.08% to 29.96 tons [63]. - **Silver ETFs**: The SLV US and PSLV Canada, CEF Canada silver holdings remained unchanged; the ETPMAG Australia silver holding decreased by 0.41% to 483.10 tons. The closing price of silver ETFs decreased by 2.13% to 71.66 US dollars, the settled funds increased by 1.83% to 396.80 billion US dollars, and the trading volume decreased by 11.95% to 3274.82 million shares [63].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the unclear geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international crude oil fluctuates sharply. Some urea production facilities in the Middle East are temporarily shut down, leading to a significant increase in overseas urea prices. The middle and lower reaches are cautious about accepting high - priced goods, while the upstream factories currently face little pressure. Exports are urgently halted, and reserve supplies are expected to be released into the market. It is expected that the urea price will oscillate within the range of 1820 - 1950 [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Tuesday, the price of the urea main contract 2605 dropped by 33 yuan to 1878 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central - China mainstream area fell by 10 yuan to 1860 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 119 to 278,000, and short positions decreased by 2615 to 323,000 [1] 2. Important Information - **Supply**: The daily production of the urea industry is 221,200 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons compared to the previous working day and 298,000 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate is 93.95%, an 8.88% increase compared to 85.07% in the same period last year [1] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 957,600 tons, a decrease of 140,500 tons from the previous period, a 12.79% month - on - month decrease. The sample inventory at urea ports is 189,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 [1] - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 37%, a 3.6% month - on - month increase, and the operating rate of melamine is 55.9%, an 8.2% month - on - month decrease [1] - **Tender**: India's RCF urea import tender, with the latest shipping date on March 31, received 20 suppliers with a total bid volume of over 3.07 million tons. The lowest offer on the east coast is CFR512 dollars/ton, and on the west coast is CFR508 dollars/ton. India intends to purchase 1.5 million tons in this tender [1] - **Import and Export in December 2025**: Urea imports were 35.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 82.11%; the average import price was 2963.69 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 52.11%. Urea exports were 278,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 53.75%; the average export price was 398.27 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 56.64% [1] - **Oil Price**: The tense atmosphere in the Middle East persists, and supply risks continue, causing international oil prices to rise. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose 2.71 dollars/barrel to 96.21 dollars/barrel, a 2.90% month - on - month increase; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract rose 3.21 dollars/barrel to 103.42 dollars/barrel, a 3.20% month - on - month increase. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2605 contract dropped 25.9 to 744.5 yuan/barrel and rose 20.4 to 764.9 yuan/barrel in the night session [1] 3. Market Logic - The unclear geopolitical situation in the Middle East leads to sharp fluctuations in international crude oil. Some urea production facilities in the Middle East are temporarily shut down, causing a significant increase in overseas urea prices. The middle and lower reaches are cautious about accepting high - priced goods, while the upstream factories currently face little pressure. Exports are urgently halted, and reserve supplies are expected to be released into the market [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, the alumina futures rose by 3.4% due to Guinea's policy to restrict bauxite mining and exports, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, increased shipping costs and bauxite import costs, and capital sentiment [3]. - In the short - term (1 - 2 weeks), the alumina futures will have a strong - side oscillation with upward pressure. The main contract AO2605 is likely to fluctuate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton, and it will fall back easily if the geopolitical situation doesn't further escalate after breaking through 3150 [3]. - In the medium - term (1 - 2 months), the price will oscillate and decline, returning to the cost range of 2700 - 2900 yuan/ton due to the release of new production capacity and low demand growth [3]. - In the long - term, the price will mainly oscillate at a low level. Only significant escalation of geopolitical conflicts, tightening of Guinea's policies, or substantial regulation of domestic production capacity may lead to a trend - like market [3]. - For the stock market, the market showed a unilateral decline after a morning rally today, with shrinking trading volume, and there may be a new low tomorrow [6]. - For gold, the daily - level red - green line has turned bearish, and it maintains a weak - side oscillation. A short - selling strategy is recommended [11]. - For iron ore, although there is supply pressure in the long - term, it is running strongly recently, and a long - side view can be maintained [13][14]. - For glass, it is affected by the overall commodity sentiment in the short - term, and a wide - range oscillation view can be taken before the upper pressure is broken [17]. - For methanol, due to geopolitical factors in Iran, the import volume will be low in the next 1 - 2 months, and the fundamental outlook is positive [19]. - For paper pulp, the conflict in the Middle East has brought uncertainty. Suppliers expect price increases, while Chinese buyers want price cuts [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina Futures - **Reasons for price increase**: Guinea's policy to restrict bauxite mining and exports, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, increased shipping costs and bauxite import costs, and capital sentiment [3]. - **Short - term trend**: Strong - side oscillation with upward pressure, main contract AO2605 likely to fluctuate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Medium - term trend**: Oscillate and decline, return to the cost range of 2700 - 2900 yuan/ton [3]. - **Long - term trend**: Low - level oscillation, only special situations may lead to a trend - like market [3]. Stock Market - **Today's performance**: The market showed a unilateral decline after a morning rally, with shrinking trading volume [6]. - **Outlook**: There may be a new low tomorrow [6]. Gold - **Technical analysis**: The daily - level red - green line has turned bearish [11]. - **Strategy**: A short - selling strategy is recommended [11]. Iron Ore - **Supply situation**: Medium - to long - term supply is expected to be loose, but it is running strongly recently [13][14]. - **Strategy**: A long - side view can be maintained [13]. Glass - **Current situation**: Daily melting has declined, inventory has slightly decreased, and it is affected by the overall commodity sentiment in the short - term [17]. - **Strategy**: A wide - range oscillation view can be taken before the upper pressure is broken [17]. Methanol - **Influence factors**: Geopolitical factors in Iran lead to low import volume in the next 1 - 2 months [19]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental outlook is positive [19]. Paper Pulp - **Situation**: The conflict in the Middle East has brought uncertainty. Suppliers expect price increases, while Chinese buyers want price cuts [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market risk preference remains low, with gold prices oscillating slightly higher, silver prices falling by over 1%, and oil prices remaining strong due to the blocked passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the refusal of US allies to provide escort, leading to increasing inflationary pressure [1][12]. - A - shares continue to decline with shrinking trading volume, and there are no trend - based opportunities for short - term stock indices as the situation between the US and Iran escalates and funds shift between sectors [2][22]. - The focus of the bond market lies in the war and shipping situation in the strait. If oil prices remain high, inflation should be the main trading theme, and long - term bond varieties are in a weakly oscillating market [3][25]. - Steel prices continue to oscillate slightly stronger, but the market driving force is still insufficient, and the subsequent inventory reduction speed of finished products is uncertain [4][30]. - Oil prices are oscillating at a high level, and the security threat to Middle - East energy facilities is increasing [5][54]. - The container shipping price from Shanghai to Rotterdam by MSK has increased, and the freight rate is expected to remain strongly oscillating in the short term [6][62]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury auctioned $13 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds, with a winning bid rate of 4.817% and a bid - to - cover ratio of 2.76 [11]. - After the death of Ali Larijani, gold prices oscillated slightly higher, silver prices fell by over 1%, and inflationary pressure increased. Short - term precious metals are under pressure, and the silver performance is weaker than that of gold [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US military launched an attack on missile launch sites near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump criticized NATO allies, and the US dollar index is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The White House economic advisor believes that the Iran conflict will end within a few weeks. After the death of Larijani, the Middle - East situation escalates, but the financial market has priced in the war's persistence. The US stock market has rebounded for two consecutive days, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [18][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, and the National Development and Reform Commission has launched $13.4 billion in major foreign - funded projects. A - shares are falling with shrinking trading volume, and there are no short - term trend - based opportunities. It is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks [21][22][23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 51 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1.15 billion yuan. The bond market focuses on the war and shipping situation. If oil prices remain high, inflation is the main trading theme, and short - term short - selling has a slightly higher cost - performance ratio [24][25][26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Wuhai is running stably. The supply side is increasing, and the demand side is expected to improve. The short - term market is in a supply - demand balance, and price fluctuations are mainly affected by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict [27][28]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China State Construction's new contract value from January to February increased by 0.9% year - on - year. Steel prices are oscillating slightly stronger, but the driving force is weak. The inventory reduction speed is uncertain, and the upside space is limited [29][30][31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in Beigang is stable. The internal and external coal prices are decoupled, and the overseas coal price is rising. If the conflict lasts until May - June, the domestic coal price may rise passively. The short - term price oscillates, and there is an upward risk in the long term [32][33]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - MinRes's Lamb Creek iron ore project has achieved its first shipment. The iron ore price continues to oscillate. Considering factors such as freight costs and potential mining cost increases, the short - term downward trend is not clear [34]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The policy of the lowest - price wheat auction has been adjusted, which may suppress the corn feed demand. The supply side's grain sales progress is slow, and the port inventory is low. The demand side has support. The short - term market is in a multi - factor game, and the price is expected to stabilize and rebound in the medium and long term [35][36]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The government has launched a hydrogen energy application pilot project, which is beneficial to platinum demand in the long term. The fundamental driving force of platinum and palladium has weakened. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider long - platinum and short - palladium opportunities [37][38][39]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The auction price of lithium spodumene concentrate is 15,617 yuan/ton. The supply side may face cost increases and production cuts, and the demand side has support. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [40][41][42]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead has a discount. The lead price is under pressure but has cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities on dips [43][44][45]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc has a discount, and the inventory has increased. The zinc price is in a short - term adjustment period. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks in the mid - term [46][47]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - River Steel Resources' South African subsidiary's copper mining has partially resumed production, and Rio Tinto plans to invest $500 million in a copper mine exploration. The copper price is affected by the Middle - East situation and terminal demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider an internal - external positive arbitrage strategy [48][50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin has a discount. The supply side's repair expectation is strong, and the demand side is weak. The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term [51][52]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iraq is expected to resume oil exports from Turkish ports, and an oil and gas facility in the UAE has been attacked. Oil prices are oscillating at a high level, and the short - term risk premium is affected by the Strait of Hormuz situation [53][54][55]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The LPG price is oscillating at a high level. The domestic market price is stable, and the external market has a slight correction. It is recommended to manage risks due to the fluctuating Middle - East news [56]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt production of local refineries in April is expected to decrease. The supply side is tight, and the price is likely to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [57][58]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA closing price is 81.58 yuan/ton, with a 0.45% decline. The carbon market is in a policy window period, and the price is oscillating narrowly. Enterprises in need can consider buying on dips [59][60]. 3.2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Indian and Pakistani transport ships have successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The MSK Shanghai - Rotterdam shipping price has increased, and the freight rate is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term, with the bottom of the oscillation range rising [61][62].

Report Overview - The report analyzes the impact of the Iran geopolitical conflict on major domestic futures varieties, covering aspects such as liquidity risk, market expectations, and volatility changes [3]. - Due to the continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the supply gap of crude oil is relatively clear, with an upward - trending and volatile market. For downstream chemical products, most commodity valuations have reached relatively high levels, and chasing high prices is not recommended. Crude oil prices also affect the price of the oil and fat sector [3]. Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report's overall industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Views by Category Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: With the continuous blockade of the Strait, the supply gap is clear, and the trend is upward with fluctuations [8]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The supply - demand contradictions in the near - term have been resolved by previous inventories and near - end supplies, and the market has entered a short - term adjustment phase [8]. - **P - Xylene, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, and Bottle Chips**: Short - term valuations are in place, and chasing high prices is not advisable [8]. - **Polypropylene**: Geopolitical risks continue to escalate. The supply of crude oil and propane is reduced due to shipping stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz, which has affected domestic supply and provided support for near - end prices [8]. - **Polyethylene**: The continuous strength of crude oil prices provides cost support. The supply of upstream cracking raw materials may be severely tightened, and domestic cracking operations are reducing production, leading to a stronger near - end of derivatives [8]. - **Container Shipping Index**: The spot price of Maersk increased by $400 to $2700/FEU in the first week of April (a 10% increase in the central price), and the valuation center of 2604 has shifted to 2000 - 2200 points. The far - month is priced according to seasonality [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: The driving force is upward, but the short - term valuation is slightly high. Affected by the Middle East situation, overseas caustic soda production has been passively reduced, and the export price has increased significantly. However, the futures price has a large premium, and overseas device dynamics and Chinese export orders need to be continuously monitored [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Affected by the Iran situation, the production of chlor - alkali in South Korea and other places has been reduced, and the domestic production capacity of ethylene - based PVC has also decreased. The future Asian ethylene - based production capacity faces production reduction pressure. The market focus is on the impact duration of the Middle East situation [8]. - **LPG**: The supply problem in the Middle East remains unresolved, and there is support at the lower end. Attention should be paid to cost - end changes [8]. - **Propylene**: The import of raw material propane is blocked, and PDH devices are expected to shut down centrally. PL is expected to rise further due to cost increase and supply tightening. Attention should be paid to cost - end changes [8]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The outer - market US soybeans fluctuate greatly due to events such as China - US economic and trade consultations and the postponement of Trump's visit to China. The domestic soybean meal market sentiment is stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the further progress of China - US trade events [9]. - **Palm Oil**: The trading of palm oil's energy attribute continues. The long - term high price of crude oil is likely to lead to a trend - like increase in the palm oil market after fundamental resonance [9]. - **Soybean Oil**: The trading of the energy attribute in the oil and fat sector continues. However, attention should be paid to the impact of the Iran event on China - US economic and trade consultations. The fluctuation of US soybeans may become a resistance for soybean oil to follow the upward trend [9]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The market is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict in the near - term has increased energy costs and disrupted spot procurement, driving the price rebound of near - end iron ore contracts. The long - term impact is small. Strategies include focusing on the 5 - 9 positive spread of iron ore and selling call options on the 09 contract with an exercise price of 850 yuan/ton [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For alumina, the fundamentals are in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. Suggest light - position oscillating trading and control trading rhythm and risks [2]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the fundamentals are in a stage of stable supply and slightly warming demand. Suggest light - position short - term long trading on dips and control trading rhythm and risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals are in a stage of rising supply and flat demand. Suggest light - position short - term long trading on dips and control trading rhythm and risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,990 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,073 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan [2]. - The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 3,392 dollars/ton, down 47 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 442,825 tons, down 2,475 tons [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 23,725 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 25,100 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot is 24,900 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,375 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 90 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 801.08 million tons per month, down 12.72 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 million tons per month, up 25.33 million tons [2]. - The import volume of aluminum scrap and waste is 194,102.07 tons per month, up 31,482.14 tons; the export volume of aluminum scrap and waste is 70.80 tons per month, down 0.73 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 20.49 million tons per month, up 31.36 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 129.50 million tons per week, up 3.38 million tons [2]. - The output of aluminum products is 613.56 million tons per month, up 20.46 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 42.96 million tons per month, down 11.04 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 27.08 million tons per month, down 39.41 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.55 million tons per month, down 0.51 million tons [2]. - The automobile production is 341.15 million vehicles per month, down 10.75 million vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 22.00%, up 0.22%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 31.36%, down 0.10% [2]. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money option is 24.62%, up 0.0090; the put - call ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.65, up 0.0254 [2]. Industry News - Academician Ouyang Minggao said that 2026 will start a new round of high - quality development cycle led by innovation, and there will be seven technological development directions in the new energy vehicle industry in the next five years [2]. - China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Paris, forming some new consensuses and agreeing to study the establishment of a cooperation mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment [2]. - Premier Li Qiang presided over the 11th plenary meeting of the State Council, deploying the implementation of the key work of the State Council in 2026 [2].

【行情分析】 EIA数据显示，美国原油库存累库幅度超预期，但成品油去库幅度较大，整体油品库存转而减少。 美国、以色列和伊朗仍在相互袭击，伊朗原油产量和出口量较大，伊朗日产原油约330万桶，占全球 产量的3%，日均出口约160万桶，且位于原油海运要道—霍尔木兹海峡。2025年每日约有1300万桶原 油通过该海峡，占全球海运原油流量的约31%。霍尔木兹海峡近乎停航多日已经引发中东产油国减产。 沙特、阿联酋、伊拉克、科威特合计减产至多670万桶/日，相当于四国总产能的三分之一，占全球 供应量的约6%。虽然特朗普表示这场战争已经基本结束，但伊朗表明霍尔木兹海峡通行受其管制， 向一些商船开火。阿联酋富查伊拉油港已经遭受了无人机袭击。美军对伊朗石油出口枢纽哈尔克岛 的军事目标发动空袭。伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊于3月12日发表就任最高领袖以来的首份声 明。声明称，伊朗不会放弃复仇，将继续采取包括封锁霍尔木兹海峡在内的战略手段，并在必要时 开辟新的战线。这声明表态强硬，与此前穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊对美态度一样。美伊目前均无意停火。 伊朗外长否认近期与美方接触，并称任何反向言论只是为了误导石油交易员和公众。美国能源部长 赖特 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The current trading focus of the soybean meal futures is on the spot market, where the downstream is eager to fix prices as the end - March price - fixing date approaches, leading to a stable basis. The overall soybean inventory of domestic oil mills is decreasing, and the soybean meal inventory is also falling. The market is trading on expectations and selling on reality due to the Sino - US negotiation in April and the delay of the RVO policy, causing the futures price to decline from its high. In the short - term, the spot price is supported by slow shipping and rising freight costs from Brazil, but the medium - term large - supply logic remains unchanged. The rapeseed meal has regained cost - effectiveness after the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widened [2]. - For rapeseed meal, the aquaculture stocking season in South China is approaching, and early aquaculture fry stocking may boost demand. However, there is an expectation of supply recovery, and the pressure of warehouse receipts still exists [2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: Near the end - March price - fixing date, downstream price - fixing sentiment is strong, and the basis is stable. Overall oil - mill soybean inventory is falling, and soybean meal inventory is also decreasing. The market is affected by Sino - US negotiations and the RVO policy, with short - term support from Brazilian shipping issues but a medium - term large - supply outlook. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is narrowing [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The aquaculture stocking season in South China is approaching, with early fry stocking. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has widened, making rapeseed meal more cost - effective. However, supply is expected to recover, and warehouse - receipt pressure remains [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Basis Strategy**: For unfixed basis, consider fixing prices when the Brazilian premium starts to decline. For fixed basis, be cautious about the subsequent sales pace. In the medium - term downward cycle, consider fixed - price purchases [21]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: There is continuous bottom - fishing by funds, but valuation and supply limit the rebound of the 05 contract. The bottom of soybean meal is around 3000. Consider a light - position long spread between different months of soybean meal [22]. - **Month - Spread Strategy**: Long the spread between different months of soybean meal [23]. - **Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy**: Take profit on widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal for the 2605 contract [23]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 38.3%. The price range of rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 56.7% [24]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Traders with high protein inventory can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures to lock in purchase costs. Oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits [24]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts show different changes, with some rising and some falling. The CBOT yellow soybean price is stable, and the offshore RMB exchange rate has a slight decline [25]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different months of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures, as well as the spreads between spot and futures prices, show various changes [25]. - **Import Costs and Pressing Profits**: The import costs of US and Brazilian soybeans have different changes, and the pressing profits also vary [26]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US soybean crushing volume in February was 208.75 million bushels, a 5.8% month - on - month decrease but a 17.4% year - on - year increase, higher than analysts' expectations. The US and South American grain freight rates to China were stable or rising. Brazil's animal and plant health official will visit China to discuss soybean shipment inspection procedures. Brazilian soybean sales to China this week dropped sharply [28][29]. - **Negative Information**: The Sino - US summit may be postponed, which adds uncertainty to the market. The soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso and Brazil shows different situations, and the Brazilian soybean production forecast is slightly adjusted [30][31][32]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The downstream near - month physical inventory is high, and the downstream is gradually fixing prices, with slower提货 than before [33]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monday: USDA export inspection report [36]. - Tuesday: NOPA soybean crushing report and Brazil Secex weekly report [37]. - Thursday: USDA export sales report [37]. - Saturday: CFTC agricultural product positions [37]. Chapter 3: Futures Price Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures price was affected by Brazilian shipping issues and funds, then declined due to Sino - US negotiation and RVO policy expectations. Rapeseed meal followed soybean meal. The key profitable seats in soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures increased short positions, and the bullish sentiment in soybean meal options was rising. The futures month - spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal maintained a B - structure, and the 5 - 9 month - spread was in a long - spread rhythm. The basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal was strong, and the spot - futures spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to widen [36][38][43]. - **International Market**: The international soybean futures price has been rising this year but dropped due to the Middle East situation, Sino - US negotiation delay, and possible further delay of the RVO policy. The CFTC data shows that managed funds are back in a bullish position [58][64]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - The soybean crushing profit in the US has slightly declined, while the profits in South American production areas (Brazil and Argentina) have increased due to rising product prices. The domestic crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed has slightly declined [70]. 4.2 Import - Export and Pressing Profit Tracking - The expected soybean imports in April and May are 8.5 million tons and 10.5 million tons respectively, with a downward adjustment in April due to Brazilian shipping delays. The pressing profit of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal has increased, and the supply is expected to recover [77]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - **US**: According to the USDA March supply - demand report, the US 2025/26 soybean planting area, harvest area, yield, production, export, and ending stocks are the same as in February, with imports and crushings slightly increased. The increase in US fertilizer prices may lead farmers to increase soybean planting [97][98]. - **South America**: The USDA March supply - demand report shows that the expected soybean production in Argentina in 2025/26 is reduced from 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons, and exports remain at 8.25 million tons. Brazil's soybean production and exports are the same as last month [98]. 5.2 Domestic Supply - Side and Projection - The arrival pressure of imported soybeans in the second quarter will suppress the overall height of the main M05 contract. After the tariff reduction between China and Canada, the supply pressure of rapeseed also has a recovery expectation [99]. 5.3 Domestic Demand - Side and Projection - Although the domestic soybean supply in the first quarter has decreased, it is still relatively abundant. The subsequent crushing volume is expected to remain high, and the consumption of domestic soybean meal is difficult to increase significantly after high - level stocking [101]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory - Side and Projection - The domestic soybean inventory will decline in the first quarter and start to increase after the arrival of Brazilian soybeans in the second quarter, and the soybean meal inventory will follow [104].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2026/3/17 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 2004.500 | | -0.9↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 2453 | | -0.50↓ | | 期货盘面 EC2604-EC2606价差 -448.50 | | +7.10↑ EC2604-EC2608价差 | -396.50 | | +39.70↑ | | EC合约基差 -448.01 | | -65.70↓ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 23452 | | -1151↓ | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 1556.49 | ...