2月6日，"中东因素"成为市场资金流动的重要推手，文华财经石油板块上涨0.98%，成为涨幅最大的板块，资 金净流入33.66亿元，而化工板块下跌0.78%，资金净流入14.31亿元。 波斯湾风云再起，全球化工市场暗流涌动。 当前美伊对峙已触高危临界点，全球目光集中在伊美核谈判上，国际油价存在超预期反弹的风险。伊朗是全球 能源化工产品重要供应国，原油、燃料油等品种出口占比显著，且波斯湾—霍尔木兹海峡是全球能源运输"咽 喉"，一旦冲突发生将直接影响供应与运输安全。 2月6日，在国内商品期货市场情绪趋向谨慎，资金继续撤离的大背景下，石油期货板块逆势获得近34亿元资金 青睐，化工期货板块也吸引超14亿元资金流入，原油及橡胶等均获大量资金加持。 中东持续拉响警报 根据卓创资讯数据，在跟踪的319个产品中，207个品种上涨，上涨品种环比增加69个。其中，涨幅居前的分别 为液氯、氢氧化锂、乙腈、碳酸锂和丁二烯，涨幅分别为71.43%、44.10%、32.86%、25.58%和25.31%。69个 品种下跌，下跌品种环比减少78 个。跌幅居前的分别是双氧水、硝酸、烧碱、煤油和氩气，分别下跌 18.40%、16.71%、13. ...

那些原本运往印度的油轮，很可能很快转向中国。能源贸易的本质就是市场的博弈，谁能够稳定，谁就能够抢占更 多的市场份额。中国拥有更庞大、更活跃的市场，俄罗斯如果选择将油卖给中国，恐怕连美国都在想方设法将自家 的能源输送到中国市场。大家互相博弈，但中国市场的确定性无疑是最为亮眼的。对于俄罗斯来说，若印度退潮， 油价的折扣更加明显，中国无疑将成为最大受益者。 印度最近提出停止购买俄罗斯石油，这个举动表面上看似是在对俄罗斯表现出强硬态度，实则背后充满了讨价还价 的成分。莫迪此举，表面上是站队，但其真正的意图则是在与美国进行贸易谈判时利用这一点作为筹码。在大国博 弈的能源棋局中，最忌讳的就是自作聪明。莫迪或许认为通过将俄罗斯的石油作为筹码，能够换来美国的让步，但 实际上，这一举动很可能会让印度的信用被大大折扣。 特朗普曾公开表示，美印之间已经达成了贸易协议，只是双方为了避免外界过多关注而选择低调处理。这背后隐藏 着的交易，不是完全光明正大，一方要面子，一方要里子。特朗普宣称，美国将把对印度商品加征的关税降至 18%，这并不是美国在坚持原则，而是在精打细算、讲求交易的价格。 当印度承诺停止购买俄罗斯石油并承诺购买价值超过5 ...

Group 1 - The Cuban government has issued a warning to international airlines operating in the country about an impending fuel shortage due to a U.S. oil blockade, which will lead to the depletion of aviation fuel starting from February 9 [1] - The official navigation notice from the Cuban government states that the aviation fuel shortage will affect all international airports in Cuba, with the notice being effective for one month from February 10 to March 11 [1] - The Chinese embassy in Cuba has advised Chinese citizens to pay attention to changes in flights to Cuba and associated travel risks, indicating that the fuel shortage has already impacted international flights [1] Group 2 - In response to the fuel crisis, the Cuban government has announced an emergency plan aimed at maintaining operations without importing crude oil or refined products, which includes measures such as halting diesel sales, reducing working hours for hospitals and government institutions, and closing some hotels [1] - The situation has been exacerbated by an executive order signed by U.S. President Trump on January 29, threatening to impose tariffs on goods from countries supplying oil to Cuba [1]

Core Viewpoint - India has chosen to abandon its oil cooperation with Iran, which has pleased Trump, who is now urging China to follow suit and recognize the situation [1][12]. Group 1: India's Oil Decisions - India has maintained its oil transactions with Russia for a long time but has quickly yielded on the Iran issue due to pressure from U.S. sanctions [1][9]. - The decision to purchase oil from Venezuela instead of Iran is seen as a reflection of the success of U.S. policy, with Trump inviting China to adopt a similar approach [3][12]. - India's leadership faced a dilemma between the attractive pricing of Russian oil and the need to avoid conflict with the U.S., ultimately leading to a shift in its oil sourcing strategy [9][10]. Group 2: U.S. and Venezuela Relations - Venezuela has provided 50 million barrels of high-quality oil to the U.S., generating $5.2 billion in revenue, with an agreement for profits to be shared between the U.S. and Venezuela [1]. - Trump criticized Venezuela for selling oil to China at unfair prices, claiming that U.S. control would adjust prices to international market levels [3][5]. - The U.S. has implemented significant military presence in the Caribbean to exert pressure on Venezuela, which raises concerns about international law violations [5]. Group 3: China's Position - Venezuela's oil constitutes only 4% of China's total oil imports, indicating minimal impact on China's energy strategy [7]. - China has not increased its oil imports from Venezuela following Trump's announcement, suggesting that Trump's call for China to follow India's lead may lack significance [7][12]. - China maintains a strong economic position and trade autonomy, allowing it to withstand U.S. pressures without compromising its relationships with other countries, particularly in the energy sector [12].

首席点评：央行继续增持黄金 2 月 7 日，中国人民银行更新的官方储备资产数据显示，截至 2026 年 1 月末， 中国黄金储备为 7419 万盎司(约 2307.57 吨)，较 2025 年 12 月末的 7415 万盎 司(约 2306.32 吨)增加 4 万盎司(1.24 吨)，为连续第 15 个月增持黄金。央行 15 个月共增持黄金 139 万盎司(约 43.23 吨)。其中，2025 年全年，中国黄金储备 增加了 86 万盎司(约 26.75 吨)。美国上周初请失业金人数录得 23.1 万人，预估 21.2 万人，前值 20.9 万人。美国 1 月 24 日当周持续申领失业救济人数为 184.4 万人，预估 185 万人，失业数据上升显示经济放缓风险增加，可能减少能源需求， 对液化石油气现货价格构成利空。2 月 6 日周五举行的伊美谈判因双方在关于谈 判内容是否只聚焦核问题方面存在分歧，伊朗问题反复，油价受消息面影响波动。 美国政府正准备发布一项通用许可证，允许企业在委内瑞拉开采石油，委内瑞拉 原油产量存增长预期。 重点品种：贵金属、原油、铜 贵金属：贵金属有所反弹。此前贵金属巨震，主要受美联储主席 ...

Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The global macro - market last week was affected by multiple variables. The reconstruction of global liquidity expectations, policy and event disturbances in core economies, and the intensification of monetary policy differentiation were the core logics. Four major variables, including the Japanese election, weak US employment, China's pro - growth policies, and Australia's interest rate hike, dominated the market game, leading to high volatility in multiple sectors [2] - Short - term market trends will be verified by a series of events such as the Japanese election results, US key economic data, and China's inflation and consumption performance. The long - term trend is related to the US AI strategy, China's industrial and investment development, global key raw material strategic reserve logic, and the background of persistent differential inflation and monetary policies [2] Group 2: Financial Futures Macro - In the Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8, the ruling coalition composed of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party won a majority of seats. The Bank of Canada Governor said that if Canada loses preferential trade access to the US through the USMCA, its economy may fall into recession, but this is not the central bank's baseline scenario. The Japanese Finance Minister said it's not easy to use foreign exchange reserves for tax cuts and spending, and the Japanese Prime Minister will consider reducing the consumption tax [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB appreciated against the US dollar in the previous trading day. The RMB's short - term movement against the US dollar is affected by seasonal settlement demand and the US dollar index. Exporters are advised to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and importers can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at around 6.93 [3][4] Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated and adjusted last trading day. Short - term (before the Spring Festival), it is expected to remain volatile, and large - cap stock indices may be relatively dominant. Attention should be paid to the release of US non - farm payroll data and domestic CPI data [5] Treasury Bonds - Last week, bond futures rose overall. Whether the bond market can continue to rise this week depends on whether trading sentiment can be maintained. It is recommended to shift mid - line long positions during intraday adjustments and take profits on the March contract at high prices [6] Group 3: Commodities New Energy Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate futures prices fell sharply. Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment is over, and it is recommended to hold a light or empty position during the holiday. High volatility in the lithium carbonate futures market presents an opportunity to sell volatility [9] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of weak supply and demand. In February, production schedules will decline, and inventory reduction is the main task. Industrial silicon prices may continue to decline [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with a support level of 23000 - 23500. It is recommended to build long positions or sell options at the support level. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term, but there are short - term disturbances. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to aluminum, and attention can be paid to its price difference with aluminum [15][16] Copper - Copper prices had high volatility last week. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to focus on short - term range operations and be cautious about chasing up or selling down [19] Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Before the Spring Festival, supply and demand are both weak. It is recommended to pay attention to this week's employment data, as weak data may support prices [20] Nickel - Stainless Steel - Nickel - stainless steel had a deep correction this week, mainly affected by the overall market and macro - level sentiment. The supply and demand are both weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the quota release rhythm and Indonesian downstream layout [20][21] Tin - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to this week's US employment and CPI data. Weak data may support non - ferrous metal prices [23] Lead - Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with support at the bottom but lack of upward drive before the Spring Festival [23] Oils and Fats, and Feeds Oilseeds - The external market of soybeans is strong, while the domestic market is weak. It is recommended to lightly try long positions, but the upside is limited [24][25] Oils and Fats - Before the Spring Festival, funds flowed out of the oils and fats market, which is expected to be weakly volatile. It is not recommended to short, and selling put options can be considered [26] Energy and Oil and Gas Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is operating weakly. Although the supply shortage has been alleviated, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to geopolitical uncertainties [28] Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. The supply is abundant, the demand is stable, and the inventory decline has a slight positive impact on the cracking spread [29][30] Asphalt - Asphalt's upward trend is weak. Before the Spring Festival, demand drops to zero. The future trend will follow the cost - end crude oil, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors and inventory pressure after the Spring Festival [30][31] Precious Metals Platinum & Palladium - Platinum and palladium prices fluctuated sharply. In the long - term, the bull market foundation remains. High volatility requires attention to position control [33][35] Gold & Silver - Gold and silver prices fluctuated sharply last week. In the short - term, operation is difficult, but the long - term upward trend remains. It is recommended to buy on dips in installments and control positions. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [36][39] Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - Pulp futures prices are expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to partially close short positions, conduct short - term range trading, or lightly try short - term long - buying strategies. Offset paper futures can return to range trading [41][42] LPG - LPG prices are affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is neutral, and the demand from PDH is low. Attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [43][44] PTA - PX - PX - PTA's valuation is returning to the fundamentals. PX is in short supply in the second quarter. It is recommended to buy on dips. PTA's high processing fees are difficult to maintain, and it is recommended to shrink the processing fees on the disk [45][48] MEG - Bottle Chips - Ethylene glycol's demand weakens seasonally. The supply - demand balance improves in the first half of the year. It is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [49][50] Methanol - It is recommended to hold an empty position during the Spring Festival. Methanol prices follow geopolitical and non - ferrous metal trends, and the trading is difficult [51][53] Plastic PP - Polyolefin prices are affected by macro - sentiment and cost. PE shows a trend of decreasing supply and increasing demand, and PP shows a pattern of decreasing supply and demand. Short - term attention should be paid to macro - atmosphere changes and the Iran - US conflict [54][55] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene's supply increases and demand is flat. Styrene's supply will increase in February, and demand will decline during the Spring Festival. Short - term geopolitical factors and exports support prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [56][57] Urea - Urea is in a stage of over - supply. The 05 contract has an expected price increase, but the short - term price may correct. It is recommended to close long positions and hold an empty position during the Spring Festival [58][59] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is oscillating weakly, and the supply is expected to remain high in the long - term. Glass has a weak supply - demand pattern and is at risk of high intermediate inventory [60][63] Propylene - Propylene prices are affected by cost, supply and demand, and market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals provide some support, but attention should be paid to risks [63][64] Black Metals Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil - Rebar's inventory is accumulating, and hot - rolled coil's inventory is changing from decreasing to increasing. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to whether they break through the lower limit of the oscillation range [65][67] Iron Ore - The supply and demand of iron ore are both weak. The port inventory is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously before the Spring Festival [68] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal supply is seasonally shrinking, and coke's supply and demand are both recovering. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday resumption rhythm of mines and steel mills [69][70] Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are in an oscillating pattern between cost support and downstream inventory pressure. Ferrosilicon's fundamentals are slightly better [71] Agricultural and Soft Commodities Live Pigs - The live pig market is operating weakly. It is recommended to short the 03 contract and long the 05 contract in terms of the spread strategy [73][74] Cotton - Cotton prices are affected by macro - sentiment. The domestic cotton price is restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream imports and new orders [75][76] Sugar - The domestic sugar demand is average, and the international raw sugar price is weak, dragging down the domestic sugar price. The upside space is limited [77][78] Eggs - The pre - holiday stocking demand for eggs has ended. It is recommended to sell the JD2603 - C - 3100 call option [79][80] Apples - Apple's pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end. The consumption peak logic is almost realized. The price is supported by delivery contradictions and is likely to rise rather than fall [81][82] Red Dates - Red dates' pre - holiday purchase and sales are slowing down. In the short - term, the price may remain low - oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure [83]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:地缘局势扑朔迷离，国际油价宽幅波动 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给（中长期） | 中性 | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2026年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,765万桶/日，较2025年上升139万桶/ | | | | 日。(2)OPEC:2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2856.4万桶/日，较2025年11月份上升10.5万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1426.7万桶/日， | | | | 较2025年11月份下降34.3万桶/日。（3）IEA：2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2882万桶/日，较2025年11月份下降34万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国 | | | | 家原油产量为1447万桶/日，较2025年11月份上升32万桶/ ...

上周五美股三大股指全线造好，港股今日高开高走，恒指高开422点报26982点后，升幅一度收窄至319 点，低见26879点，盘中重整旗鼓再度拉升514点高见27074点，再度升穿两万七关口。截至收盘，恒指 早盘收涨1.17%，科指早盘收涨1.02%，恒指大市成交额1362.5亿港元。盘面上，光通讯、光伏设备、风 电股涨幅居前，内房股异动拉升，半导体股延续强势；新消费概念、电信、家电、石油股走势疲软。个 股方面，信达生物(01801.HK)涨近6%，泡泡玛特(09992.HK)涨超5.7%，中国人寿(02628.HK)、龙湖集团 (00960.HK)、紫金矿业(02899.HK)、华虹半导体(01347.HK)涨超5%，快手(01024.HK)跌超4.2%，中国电 信(00728.HK)、中国移动(00941.HK)均跌超1.5%。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has gained control over Venezuelan oil sales, leading China's major state-owned oil trading companies to halt new purchases due to reduced profitability and increased legal risks associated with U.S. sanctions [1][3][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The discount on Venezuelan crude oil has sharply decreased from $15 per barrel in December last year to about $5, making it less attractive for Chinese buyers [1][7]. - The previous model of oil-for-loans between China and Venezuela has been undermined by U.S. intervention, which has increased the political and financial risks associated with these transactions [3][12]. Group 2: Implications for U.S. Companies - The decision by China to stop purchasing Venezuelan oil represents a significant setback for U.S. companies that were expected to take over Venezuelan oil sales [5][12]. - U.S. attempts to control Venezuelan resources through military and hegemonic means have disrupted global supply chain predictability and stability, leading to market backlash [5][12]. Group 3: China's Strategic Shift - China's cessation of Venezuelan oil imports is a rational business decision, as the previous high-risk, high-reward nature of these transactions has shifted to a low-reward scenario with increased political risks [7][12]. - In response to the halt in Venezuelan oil purchases, China is increasing imports from Russia and Iran, where oil is offered at more attractive discounts, indicating a strategic pivot to more reliable sources [12]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The U.S. sanctions have not only destabilized the trading environment but have also rendered the economic feasibility of such policies questionable, leading to a situation where the U.S. may face significant losses [12]. - The situation highlights a structural conflict between arbitrary political power and the need for stability in the global production system, challenging the notion that hegemony can maintain global trade stability [12].

原油周报：高波动&宽震荡 研究员：赵若晨 期货从业证号：F03151390 投资咨询证号：Z0023496 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本周国际原油市场呈现高波动、宽幅震荡特征，主要受美伊地缘政治谈判反复主导，叠加宏观需求担忧与供应面 信号，油价整体先跌后反弹，但周线仍录得下跌，终结此前连续上涨势头。后期来看，地缘仍然是短期内交易重 点，美国-伊朗谈判短时间达成初步共识的可能性较小，后期来看，若谈判实质进展，风险溢价快速消退，油价易 进一步下探60-62美元区间；若局势再度紧张或破裂，价格可能快速上冲68-70美元上方，美国伊朗谈判的具体分 析，可关注《美伊百年恩怨与当下博弈——历史、谈判与全球能源风险全解析》专题报告。 【策略】 单边：宽幅震 ...