Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6]. - The short - term outlooks for specific varieties are as follows: steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate; scrap steel prices are expected to oscillate; coke prices are expected to oscillate; coking coal prices are expected to oscillate; glass prices are expected to oscillate in the short term; soda ash prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and decline in the long - term; ferrosilicon manganese prices are expected to oscillate; and ferrosilicon prices are expected to oscillate [8][9][18]. Report's Core View - The black building materials sector is in a vacuum period with limited trading drivers. The overall market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the accumulation of steel inventory pressure [1][2]. - The performance of furnace materials is better than that of finished products. Double - coking continued a small - scale rebound, iron ore oscillated around 700, and steel was relatively weak [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines are in the end - of - fiscal - year and end - of - quarter rush, with a seasonal increase in shipping volume expected before early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. The demand side shows that the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are rising, and it is expected to remain high in the short term. This week, arrivals increased seasonally, and port inventories increased slightly. There is an expectation of a small - scale increase in ore inventory in the short term, but the amplitude is expected to be limited, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to the profitability and maintenance plans of steel enterprises on the demand side [2]. Carbon Element - Some coal mines that were shut down due to environmental protection and safety inspections are resuming production, and coking coal production is expected to recover from a low level. In terms of imports, the port inventory is high, downstream procurement willingness is low, and the customs clearance volume remains low. On the demand side, coke production has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in coke enterprise operations under the pressure of losses. In terms of inventory, the rigid demand for coking coal has declined, the total amount of downstream raw material replenishment demand is limited, the upstream inventory of coking coal is still at a high level in recent years, and the inventory structure problem has not improved significantly. Overall, the supply - side tightening state is difficult to sustain, downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, there is still pressure on mine - end de - stocking, and coking coal prices lack a driving force for a trend - like increase [3]. Alloys - Manganese ore has continuous disturbances. South African shipments in July may be affected by local railway derailments, and there may be a reduction in shipments from individual mines of South African manganese ore to China in July. The market price of manganese ore has gradually stabilized and is showing an upward trend. Ferrosilicon has limited internal contradictions, manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold prices, but some manufacturers have an expectation of increasing production, and the supply - demand gap is expected to be filled. Attention should be paid to steel procurement and production in the future [3][6]. Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, the deep - processing demand continues to weaken, and the upstream inventory is accumulating. There is still pressure in the off - season, but the production and sales in Shahe have improved slightly. On the supply side, there is still pressure, with some production lines starting to produce glass and some undergoing cold repairs. The actual demand is under pressure in the off - season, the futures price is higher than the Hubei spot price, and there are many emotional disturbances. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed, maintenance is gradually resuming. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term [6]. Specific Varieties Steel - The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, overseas wars may still be repeated, and the macro - sentiment is weak. This week, the overall supply and demand of steel have strengthened month - on - month, but the inventory is still decreasing. The fundamentals have strengthened month - on - month, but the expectations are still pessimistic, and the fundamental driving force is weak. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate in the short term [8]. Iron Ore - Overseas mines are in the end - of - fiscal - year and end - of - quarter rush, with a seasonal increase in shipping volume expected before early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. The demand side shows that the molten iron production of small - sample steel enterprises is increasing, and it is expected that the molten iron production can remain high in the short term. This week, arrivals increased seasonally, and port inventories increased slightly. There is an expectation of a small - scale increase in ore inventory in the short term, but the amplitude is expected to be limited, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected that iron ore prices will oscillate [8][9]. Scrap Steel - As the building materials off - season deepens, the apparent demand for rebar has declined again, but the month - on - month decline has narrowed. The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, and the futures price is under pressure. The supply of scrap steel is tight, and the demand has short - term support. The factory inventory has decreased, and the absolute level is at a high level in the same period. It is expected that scrap steel prices will oscillate [9]. Coke - After the fourth round of price cuts for coke was implemented, the shipment situation of coke enterprises has improved, and the expectation of stable prices in the coke market is increasing. The supply side shows that some coke enterprises have reduced their operations due to environmental protection and losses, and the overall coke production has continued to decline. The demand side shows that the decline in molten iron production has slowed down, but there is still an expectation of a decline. Overall, the inventory of coke enterprises needs to be digested, the demand support is insufficient, and the upward space for coke prices is limited. In the medium term, there is still downward pressure on coke prices [9][11][12]. Coking Coal - The order - signing situation of coal mines has improved, but downstream enterprises' procurement is mainly for rigid demand, and the market sentiment is still cautious. Some coal mines that were shut down due to environmental protection and safety inspections are resuming production, and coking coal production is expected to recover from a low level. In terms of imports, the port inventory is high, downstream procurement willingness is low, and the customs clearance volume remains low. The demand side shows that coke production has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in coke enterprise operations under the pressure of losses. The inventory structure problem has not improved significantly. The supply - side tightening state is difficult to sustain, downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, there is still pressure on mine - end de - stocking, and coking coal prices lack a driving force for a trend - like increase. It is expected that coking coal prices will oscillate [13]. Ferrosilicon Manganese - The cost side of ferrosilicon manganese has continuous disturbances, and the market price of manganese ore has gradually stabilized and is showing an upward trend. The supply side shows that the overall production fluctuation is limited. The demand side shows that the futures have rebounded, the bargaining difficulty of steel procurement has increased, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold prices. Ferrosilicon manganese production is expected to increase, the terminal steel demand is entering the off - season, the supply - demand is becoming more relaxed, but the cost of factories and manganese ore traders is inverted, and the sentiment of holding prices is strong. It is expected that the futures will oscillate in the short term [16][17]. Ferrosilicon - During the peak season, the expectation of energy such as electricity has improved. The cost side shows that the semi - coke market is stable. The supply side shows that the market's bearish sentiment has eased, most enterprises are producing according to orders, and the inventory decline trend has slowed down. The demand side shows that the steel procurement in June is basically over, and the metal magnesium market is in a general mood. Ferrosilicon has limited internal contradictions, manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold prices, but some manufacturers have an expectation of increasing production, and the supply - demand gap is expected to be filled. Attention should be paid to steel procurement and production in the future, and it is expected that the futures will oscillate in the short term [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: - A-shares: Bullish in the short term [1] - Treasury bonds: Limited upside in the short term [1] - Gold: Volatile [1] - Silver: Volatile [1] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: - Copper: Bullish in the short term [1] - Aluminum: Volatile [1] - Alumina: Volatile [1] - Nickel: Volatile, limited upside in the short term, bearish in the long term [1] - Stainless steel: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the long term [1] - Tin: Bearish in the short term, potential upside from oil price increase [1] - Industrial silicon: Bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bearish [1] - **Black Metals**: - Rebar: No upward momentum [1] - Hot-rolled coil: No upward momentum [1] - Iron ore: Volatile [1] - Coking coal: Bearish [1] - Coke: Bearish [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] - Soda ash: Bearish [1] - **Agricultural Products**: - Palm oil: Bearish [1] - Soybean oil: Bearish [1] - Cotton: Bearish [1] - Sugar: Potential for higher production [1] - Corn: Bullish in the medium term [1] - Pulp: Bearish [1] - Raw silk: Neutral [1] - Live pigs: Stable [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] - BR rubber: Bearish in the short term [1] - PTA: Bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Short fiber: Bearish [1] - Pure benzene: Volatile [1] - Styrene: Volatile [1] - PVC: Bearish [1] - Caustic soda: Volatile [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the A-share market has good liquidity, geopolitical conflicts have significantly eased, and overseas disturbances have weakened, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - The weak economy is beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space in the short term [1] - The improvement in market risk appetite may put short-term pressure on gold prices, but uncertainties such as geopolitics and tariffs remain high, so gold prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - The Fed's dovish remarks and the opening of the re-export window may lead to a further decline in copper inventories, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - The low inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and the off-season demand result in volatile aluminum prices [1] - The supply of some non-ferrous metals is expected to recover, and demand shows signs of weakening, so attention should be paid to shorting opportunities at high levels [1] - The improvement in macro sentiment requires attention to tariff progress and economic data at home and abroad [1] - The supply of some agricultural products is affected by various factors, and the market shows different trends, such as the potential decline in Brazilian sugar production due to the change in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down, Trump's energy policy is negative for crude oil, and the long-term supply and demand tend to be loose [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **A-shares**: Short-term liquidity is good, geopolitical conflicts ease, and overseas disturbances weaken, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - **Treasury bonds**: The weak economy is beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space in the short term [1] - **Gold**: Market risk appetite improves, putting short-term pressure on gold prices, but uncertainties keep prices volatile [1] - **Silver**: Silver prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fed's dovish remarks and re-export window may lead to lower inventories, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and off-season demand result in volatile aluminum prices [1] - **Alumina**: Spot price decline and production increase put pressure on the futures price, but the discount limits the downside [1] - **Nickel**: High nickel ore premium and inventory increase limit the short-term upside, and long-term oversupply remains a concern [1] - **Stainless steel**: Short-term futures may rebound, but the sustainability is uncertain, and long-term supply pressure exists [1] - **Tin**: Short-term pressure from photovoltaic production cuts, potential upside from oil price increase [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, demand is low, and inventory pressure is huge [1] - **Polysilicon**: Downstream production declines, and supply reduction is not obvious [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Falling ore prices and high downstream inventory lead to weak buying [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot-rolled coil**: In the transition from peak to off-season, cost weakens, and supply-demand is loose, with no upward momentum [1] - **Iron ore**: Iron water may peak, and supply may increase in June, so attention should be paid to steel pressure [1] - **Coking coal and Coke**: Supply surplus exists, and the rebound space is limited [1] - **Glass**: Supply and demand are weak, and prices continue to decline [1] - **Soda ash**: Maintenance resumes, supply surplus is a concern, and demand is weak, so prices are under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm oil and Soybean oil**: After the decline of crude oil, the supply-demand is weak, and prices are expected to fall [1] - **Cotton**: Domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to consumption off-season and inventory accumulation [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the change in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio may affect production [1] - **Corn**: Short-term price is affected by auction news, but the medium-term outlook is bullish [1] - **Pulp**: In the demand off-season, it is bearish after the positive news fades [1] - **Raw silk**: High持仓 and intense capital game lead to large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Live pigs**: Inventory is abundant, and futures prices are stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil and Fuel oil**: Geopolitical cooling, Trump's energy policy, and long-term supply-demand loosening are negative factors [1] - **Asphalt**: Cost drag, potential tax refund increase, and slow demand recovery [1] - **BR rubber**: Temporary stability due to geopolitical cooling, but weak fundamentals in the short term [1] - **PTA, Ethylene glycol, and Short fiber**: Affected by the decline of crude oil and other factors, prices are bearish [1] - **Pure benzene and Styrene**: Volatile due to market sentiment and supply-demand changes [1] - **PVC**: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and the entry of new devices, so prices are bearish [1] - **Caustic soda**: Maintenance is almost over, and attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1] - **LPG**: Geopolitical relief, seasonal off-season, and inflow of low-cost foreign goods lead to downward pressure [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel: Affected by the decline in crude oil and the weakening of the previous bullish sentiment in industrial products, the steel market is under downward pressure. However, due to the high level of hot metal production, the downward movement of the market is blocked, and it is expected to be in a volatile consolidation in the short term [3]. - Iron Ore: The fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable, with a situation of both supply and demand being strong, but slightly weakening at the margin. The price may be range - bound, and attention should be paid to macro - turning points [20][21]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market is facing inventory pressure, and the probability of coke price increase is low. The overall market is affected by the change in the situation in the Middle East [40]. - Ferroalloy: Although there is a certain rebound sentiment in the ferroalloy market, the long - term trend is still weak due to factors such as steel mill price pressure and cost decline [56]. - Soda Ash: The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and the demand is weak. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the price may continue to decline [69][70]. - Glass: The glass market has weak fundamentals and cost support in the short term, and there is no obvious driving force. Attention should be paid to the increase in cold - repair expectations if the low - price situation persists [98]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price Movement**: On June 25, 2025, the closing prices of some steel contracts changed slightly compared with the previous day. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 2978 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the decline in coal prices and the weakening of the previous bullish sentiment in industrial products, the steel market is under downward pressure. However, due to the high level of hot metal production and the support of raw material costs, the downward movement is blocked. In the off - season, the demand for steel is weak, and some varieties are facing inventory pressure. The export price also restricts the rise of steel prices [3]. Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The overall fundamentals of iron ore are in a state of both supply and demand being strong, but slightly weakening at the margin. The global iron ore shipment volume has increased year - on - year, and China's iron ore imports in June are expected to reach the highest value this year. The demand side is supported by high hot metal production, and the inventory in ports is slightly decreasing, but the rate of decrease is slowing down [20]. - **Price Outlook**: The price of iron ore may be range - bound, and attention should be paid to macro - turning points [21]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: The coking coal market is facing inventory pressure, and the downstream demand is lack of confidence. The probability of coke price increase is low, and the market is affected by the change in the situation in the Middle East [40]. - **Price Data**: On June 25, 2025, the coking coal and coke contract prices and basis had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 43 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day [41]. Ferroalloy - **Market Trend**: Although there is a certain rebound sentiment in the ferroalloy market, the long - term trend is still weak due to factors such as steel mill price pressure and cost decline. The supply side is under low pressure, and the inventory is in a downward trend, but the rate of decline is slowing down [56]. - **Price Data**: On June 25, 2025, the ferroalloy contract prices and basis had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 76 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan from the previous day [59]. Soda Ash - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and the demand is weak. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the inventory is at a historical high. The photovoltaic glass industry is in a loss state, and the demand for soda ash is expected to decline [69]. - **Price Movement**: On June 25, 2025, the soda ash contract prices and spreads had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1200 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day [71]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The glass market has weak fundamentals and cost support in the short term, and there is no obvious driving force. The cumulative apparent demand for glass has declined by nearly 10%. If the market is to achieve supply - demand balance in the second half of the year, the daily melting volume needs to decline to below 154,000 tons [98]. - **Price Data**: On June 25, 2025, the glass contract prices and spreads had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1107 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day [99].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-06-25 地缘冲突缓和，⿊⾊偏弱震荡 伊以局势缓和，受此影响双焦再度转弱。除此之外⿊⾊板块处于真空 期，能交易的其他驱动⾮常有限。产业⽅⾯热卷需求回暖，螺纹季节 性下⾏。供应端铁⽔⾼位回升，整体供需均环⽐⾛强，库存暂⽆压 ⼒。不过市场对后市需求预期依然偏悲观，整体⽽⾔，盘⾯仍处于震 荡盘整阶段。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山开始财年末和季末冲量，发运量有季节性 增加预期，7月上旬之前发运或将维持高位，但同比增量有限；需求 端钢企盈利率和铁水回升，预计短期可以维持高位。本周到港季节性 回升，港口小幅累库。短期海外矿山季末冲发运，矿石库存有阶段性 小幅累库预期，但预计幅度有限，整体供需矛盾不突出。近期重点关 注需求端钢企盈利状况和检修计划。 2、碳元素方面，近期主产区环保及安全检查趋严，煤矿间歇式停产 现象较多，焦煤产量持续下滑，但整体供应的收缩幅度相对有限； 进口方面，贸易商拉运积极性偏弱，口岸通关延续低位。需求端， 焦炭产量高位回落，焦企在去库及亏损压力下、开工存在进一步下降 预期。库存端，焦煤刚需有所下滑、下游原料补库需 ...

Report on Natural Rubber 1. Investment Rating Not provided. 2. Core View In the expectation of increasing supply and weak demand, the rubber price is expected to remain weak. Hold short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to the raw material supply in each production area and macro - event disturbances [1]. 3. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 24, the price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex increased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,850 yuan/ton, with a 0.36% increase. The full - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 335 yuan/ton to 185 yuan/ton, with a 223.33% increase. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 13,600 yuan/ton, with a 1.45% decrease [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton to - 870 yuan/ton, with a 3.57% decrease; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton, with a 33.33% increase; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to 890 yuan/ton, with a 2.30% increase [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, Thailand's production decreased by 43,500 tons to 105,700 tons, with a 29.16% decrease; Indonesia's production decreased by 15,200 tons to 194,100 tons, with a 7.26% decrease; India's production decreased by 7,600 tons to 45,400 tons, with a 14.34% decrease; China's production increased by 42,300 tons to 58,100 tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles increased by 0.31 percentage points to 78.29%, and that of full - steel tires increased by 4.24 percentage points to 65.48% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory increased by 1,410 tons to 606,975 tons, with a 0.23% increase. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 2,620 tons to 32,256 tons, with a 7.51% decrease [1]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Investment Rating Not provided. 2. Core View For soda ash, the current oversupply situation is obvious, and there will be a further profit - reduction process. The previous photovoltaic resumption brought some demand, but the growth of photovoltaic capacity has slowed down. After the maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. Hold short positions. For glass, the spot market is improving, but the demand will slow down in the off - season, and the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the oversupply problem. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 950 - 1050, and there is still pressure in the medium - to - long term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged on June 25. The glass 2505 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 1,106 yuan/ton, with a 0.36% increase; the glass 2509 contract increased by 8 yuan/ton to 1,015 yuan/ton, with a 0.79% increase [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 1,199 yuan/ton, with a 0.58% decrease; the soda ash 2509 contract decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 1,161 yuan/ton, with a 1.00% decrease [4]. - **Supply Volume**: As of June 20, the soda ash operating rate increased by 6.33 percentage points to 84.90%, and the weekly production increased by 55,000 tons to 740,100 tons, with an 8.04% increase. The float glass daily melting volume decreased by 1,000 tons to 155,700 tons, with a 0.70% decrease; the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 1,000 tons to 98,990 tons, with a 1.00% decrease [4]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the glass factory warehouse increased by 1,923,000 weight - boxes to 69,685,000 weight - boxes, with a 2.84% increase. The soda ash factory warehouse increased by 62,000 tons to 1,686,300 tons, with a 3.82% increase; the soda ash delivery warehouse decreased by 20,000 tons to 327,100 tons, with a 5.87% decrease [4]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area increased by 2.99 percentage points to - 18.73%; the construction area decreased by 7.56 percentage points to - 33.33%; the completion area increased by 15.67 percentage points to - 11.68%; the sales area increased by 12.13 percentage points to - 1.55% [4]. Report on Log Futures 1. Investment Rating Not provided. 2. Core View The log futures were weak. The market is in a situation of weakening supply and demand during the high - temperature and rainy season from June to August. The 07 contract has intense long - short competition around the delivery cost. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: On June 24, the log 2507 contract decreased by 12.5 yuan/cubic meter to 806.5 yuan/cubic meter, with a 1.53% decrease; the log 2509 contract decreased by 5.5 yuan/cubic meter to 794.5 yuan/cubic meter, with a 0.69% decrease; the log 2511 contract decreased by 1 yuan/cubic meter to 794 yuan/cubic meter, with a 0.13% decrease [5]. - **Supply**: In May, the port shipping volume increased by 228,000 cubic meters to 1,955,000 cubic meters, with a 13.20% increase. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 58, with a 7.94% decrease [5]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the national log inventory decreased by 100,000 cubic meters to 3,350,000 cubic meters, with a 2.90% decrease. The inventory in Shandong decreased by 20,000 cubic meters to 1,990,000 cubic meters, with a 1.00% decrease; the inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 23,000 cubic meters to 1,109,900 cubic meters, with a 2.05% decrease [5]. - **Demand**: As of June 20, the daily average warehouse - out volume increased by 38,000 cubic meters to 636,000 cubic meters, with a 6.35% increase. The daily average warehouse - out volume in Shandong increased by 10,000 cubic meters to 340,000 cubic meters, with a 3% increase; the daily average warehouse - out volume in Jiangsu increased by 36,000 cubic meters to 226,000 cubic meters, with a 19% increase [5]. Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Investment Rating Not provided. 2. Core View The industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly. Although the demand is increasing, the supply is increasing even more. Pay attention to the change of the spot - futures arbitrage window. The increase in the production of polysilicon and silicone is beneficial to the demand for industrial silicon and inventory digestion, as well as the arbitrage of buying industrial silicon and shorting polysilicon. But if the demand weakens again, the inventory pressure will suppress the price of industrial silicon [6]. 3. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On June 24, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8,150 yuan/ton. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8,700 yuan/ton; the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged at 7,600 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, with a 50.00% increase; the 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton, with a 16.67% increase [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the national industrial silicon production increased by 0.69 million tons to 30.77 million tons, with a 2.29% increase. The production in Xinjiang decreased by 0.44 million tons to 16.31 million tons, with a 2.60% decrease; the production in Yunnan decreased by 0.34 million tons to 1 million tons, with a 25.43% decrease; the production in Sichuan increased by 1.24 million tons to 2.37 million tons, with a 109.47% increase [6]. - **Inventory Change**: As of June 24, the Xinjiang inventory decreased by 1.09 million tons to 17.58 million tons, with a 5.81% decrease; the Yunnan inventory increased by 0.04 million tons to 2.62 million tons, with a 1.55% increase. The social inventory decreased by 1.3 million tons to 55.9 million tons, with a 2.27% decrease [6]. Report on Polysilicon 1. Investment Rating Not provided. 2. Core View The polysilicon futures price fluctuated greatly. The current fundamental contradiction is the mismatch between weak demand and high supply, which leads to a strong expectation of price decline. Pay attention to the production release of polysilicon. If there is continuous resumption of production, the price will be under pressure. Hold short positions cautiously [7]. 3. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 24, the average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower - like material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis (average price) decreased by 470 yuan/ton to 3,415 yuan/ton, with a 12.10% decrease; the cauliflower - like material basis (average price) decreased by 470 yuan/ton to 9,415 yuan/ton, with a 4.75% decrease [7]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The PS2506 contract increased by 470 yuan/ton to 31,085 yuan/ton, with a 1.54% increase. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread increased by 50 yuan/ton to 845 yuan/ton, with a 6.29% increase; the PS2507 - PS2508 spread increased by 125 yuan/ton to 485 yuan/ton, with a 34.72% increase [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the polysilicon production increased by 0.07 million tons to 9.61 million tons, with a 0.73% increase. The polysilicon import volume decreased by 0.21 million tons to 0.08 million tons, with a 72.71% decrease; the polysilicon export volume increased by 0.08 million tons to 0.21 million tons, with a 66.17% increase [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's July rate - cut possibility is low, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term. Gold is expected to be weak in the short term due to the easing of the Iran - Israel conflict. The stock market's high - risk preference may continue, and the high - level oscillation pattern will persist. The bond market's long - term trend is bullish, but it is currently hesitant to break through. Most commodities face supply - side pressures, and their prices are expected to be under pressure, while some may have short - term trading opportunities [12][16][18][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - International Atomic Energy Agency plans to return to Iranian nuclear facilities. Powell's congressional stance is hawkish, negating short - term rate - cut expectations, so the Fed's July rate - cut possibility is low, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [10][12]. - Investment advice: The US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Powell said the US is not in a recession. If inflation or the labor market is weak, the Fed may cut rates early. Bostic believes there is no need to cut rates currently but expects a 25 - basis - point cut later this year. Gold prices have fallen by more than 1% due to the decline in market risk - aversion sentiment after the Iran - Israel cease - fire [14][15][16]. - Investment advice: Gold is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index has regained 3400 points. Six departments have issued a document to promote consumer finance support. The stock market's risk preference has recovered due to the easing of the Iran - Israel conflict, and the high - risk preference may continue, with the high - level oscillation pattern persisting [17][18]. - Investment advice: Suggest balanced allocation [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US consumer confidence index in June was lower than expected. Powell reiterated the Fed's wait - and - see attitude and did not rule out the possibility of an early rate cut. After the Iran - Israel cease - fire, the market risk preference has improved significantly, and the technology sector has led the index [20][21][22]. - Investment advice: US stocks are expected to oscillate weakly at the current level [22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct 300 billion yuan of MLF operations and 406.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The central bank's over - renewal of MLF shows its intention to protect liquidity. The bond market's long - term trend is bullish, but it is currently hesitant to break through [23][24]. - Investment advice: Long positions can be held, and attention should be paid to the strategy of buying on dips [25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's palm oil inventory in April increased to 3.04 million tons. The palm oil market is affected by the easing of geopolitical conflicts and the decline in crude oil prices. The market is in a game between production increases in the origin and inventory accumulation in the sales area [26]. - Investment advice: Wait for the market sentiment to stabilize and then gradually arrange long positions in the far - month contracts [26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - It is predicted that Brazil's sugar production will increase by 2.7% in the 2025/26 season, and the global market may have a supply surplus of 2.6 million tons. The Brazilian sugar production still has uncertainties, and the international sugar price is under pressure from the supply side [29][30]. - Investment advice: The rebound space and sustainability of Zhengzhou sugar are limited [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - China's corn - starch exports in May continued to rise. The export policy has been relaxed, but the export proportion is still relatively small. The core factor of the starch supply - demand situation may be the cassava substitution [31][32]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see mainly [32]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot price of Northeast corn is running strongly, but the futures price has started to fall. The warehouse receipt pressure may appear, and the old - crop contracts are expected to oscillate narrowly [33]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities for new - crop contracts 11 and 01 when the production situation is clearer [33]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price difference of imported steam coal exists. The coal price has eased in June, and the demand has a seasonal recovery. The short - term price is expected to be stable [33][34]. - Investment advice: The short - term price is expected to be stable [34]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Malaysia has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Japanese cold - rolled steel coils. The iron ore price is in an oscillating market, with seasonal pressure on the fundamentals, and the overall trend is expected to be weak [36]. - Investment advice: The price will oscillate weakly, with the spot weaker than the futures [37]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The price of organic silicon DMC has been slightly adjusted upwards. The resumption of production of industrial silicon is greater than the reduction, and the demand is not improving significantly. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [38]. - Investment advice: Consider short - selling on rebounds and pay attention to supply - side changes and the cash - flow risks of large enterprises [38]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru has extended the informal mining temporary license to the end of the year. The macro - level factors for copper are mixed in the short term. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the domestic inventory is at a low level. The copper price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [43]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish strategy for single - side trading and wait patiently for cross - period layout opportunities [43]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In May, the import and export volume of Philippine nickel ore increased. The nickel market has a tight supply of high - grade nickel ore, and the nickel - iron supply is expected to be in surplus in June. The pure - nickel price is oscillating weakly [44][45]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term [45]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead has a discount. The market is trading the expectation of improved demand. The supply of primary lead is stable, and the supply of recycled lead has decreased. The demand is in the off - season and is expected to be weak until July [46]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips in the short term, and wait and see for cross - period and cross - market arbitrage [46]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc has a discount. Some zinc smelters are resuming production. The supply of zinc is increasing, and the inventory accumulation expectation is strengthening, but the inventory accumulation height is limited. The zinc price decline may be a tug - of - war process [49]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies, pay attention to the 21500 - 21600 yuan support level, and consider positive - spread arbitrage strategies [49]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Some lithium projects have obtained approvals or financing. The LC2507 contract has a high position, and attention should be paid to the position - reduction rhythm before entering the delivery month [51]. - Investment advice: Do not chase short positions at the current level, consider partial profit - taking for previous short positions, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [52]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The API crude - oil inventory has decreased. Oil prices have continued to fall, and the risk premium has been significantly reversed. The supply of the crude - oil market has high potential for increase in the medium - to - long term [53][54]. - Investment advice: The short - term risk premium will be reversed [55]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - Some urea plants have had failures and stopped production. The urea price is falling, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. The key variable lies in the export [57]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to changes in export quotas and overall, the supply - demand situation is weak [57]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle - chip factories has been partially reduced. The polyester raw material price has fallen significantly, and the bottle - chip industry plans to reduce production in July, which will relieve the supply pressure [61]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin of bottle chips on dips and beware of the impact of raw - material price fluctuations [61]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda - ash market is oscillating at a low level. The fundamentals are under pressure, with supply stable and demand weak [62]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies in the medium term [62]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float - glass price in the Shahe market is stable. The glass demand will decline seasonally, and the supply will be relatively stable. The price has downward adjustment space [64]. - Investment advice: The short - term rebound may be difficult to sustain, and the price has downward adjustment space [64]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The price of pure benzene has been reduced. The supply of styrene is gradually recovering, and the demand is relatively stable. The pure - benzene price may have some repair space [67]. - Investment advice: The styrene price depends on the oil price and supply disturbances, and pay attention to the impact of the home - appliance subsidy policy [67]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price has risen. The carbon - market trading has increased slightly, but the supply - demand structure is expected to be loose this year, and the price is under pressure [68]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain abundant, demand will contract, and prices will continue to face pressure. The basis of soda ash has started to converge this week, and the basis convergence trading may continue. The decline of futures prices is expected to slow down. It is recommended to short the main soda ash contract on rallies [2]. - For glass, the supply side shows no significant changes, with overall output slightly increasing and remaining at a low level, indicating obvious signs of production for rigid demand. The industry's overall profit is poor and continues to decline, and the subsequent resumption of production may further weaken. The demand side is currently not optimistic, with real - estate data in May showing a significant decline, and demand is expected to further weaken. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term and maintain a short - selling mindset on rallies in the medium - to - long - term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1161 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1015 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. Soda ash main contract position is 1569278 lots, up 84429 lots; glass main contract position is 1472003 lots, up 30129 lots. Soda ash top 20 net position is - 307826, down 34580; glass top 20 net position is - 245913, up 29274. Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 3863 tons, down 150 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 877 tons, unchanged. Soda ash September - January contract spread is 7 yuan, down 5 yuan; glass September - January contract spread is - 51 yuan, up 4 yuan. Soda ash basis is 46 yuan, up 9 yuan; glass basis is 41 yuan, down 8 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1207 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1350 yuan/ton, unchanged. East China light soda ash is 1285 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1215 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. Shahe glass sheets are 1056 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets are 1070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 86.46%, up 1.56 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.34%, down 0.08 percentage points. Glass in - production capacity is 15.54 million tons/year, down 0.02 million tons; glass in - production production lines are 223, down 1. Soda ash enterprise inventory is 175.59 million tons, up 2.92 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 6988.7 million heavy boxes, up 20.2 million heavy boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 23183.61 million square meters, up 5347.77 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 18385.14 million square meters, up 2737.29 million square meters [2]. Industry News - Chen Maobo said that the adjustment range of the Hong Kong property market at the current level is not large. In the first quarter, there were 527 global luxury home transactions, with 42 in Hong Kong ranking sixth. It is expected that luxury home transactions in Hong Kong will increase in 2025, and investors are considering re - entering the market. The number of second - hand village house sales contract registrations in the New Territories of Hong Kong in the first 5 months was about 602, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. Vanke extended the term of a 1.217 billion yuan loan from Ping An Bank for 2 years. Three residential - related land parcels in Chengdu were sold for 1.089 billion yuan. Three residential land parcels in Hangzhou were sold at the reserve price with a total transaction amount of 1.167 billion yuan. Hainan plans to update 1708 old elevators in residential communities this year. A foreclosed property in Shanghai was sold for over 100 million yuan, which insiders considered a "bargain price". The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, visited Xiongan New Area and emphasized using new technologies to build "good houses" [2]. Macro - level - As of the end of May, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8% [2]. Soda Ash Analysis - In terms of supply, the domestic soda ash operating rate has increased, and production has risen, but the overall growth rate has slowed down. The market supply remains abundant, and domestic soda ash profits have declined but are still positive. It is expected that the production growth rate of soda ash will further slow down, and subsequent cold repairs are likely to increase. In terms of demand, there is no significant change in glass production lines, with overall output slightly increasing and remaining at a low level, showing obvious signs of production for rigid demand. The demand for photovoltaic glass shows signs of decline, which is expected to continue, resulting in negative feedback on the demand for soda ash. Domestic soda ash enterprise inventory has increased, mainly due to increased production, and is expected to continue to accumulate [2]. Glass Analysis - On the supply side, there are no obvious changes in glass production lines, with overall output slightly increasing and remaining at a low level, indicating obvious signs of production for rigid demand. The industry's overall profit is poor and continues to decline, and the subsequent resumption of production may further weaken. Before the profit of the coal - based production method turns negative, there will be no significant changes in the supply side. On the demand side, the current real - estate situation is not optimistic, with real - estate data in May showing a significant decline, and demand is expected to further weaken. Downstream deep - processing orders have declined, and procurement is mainly for rigid demand. The increase in inventory of automotive glass factories is difficult to offset the weak demand related to real - estate, and the demand for photovoltaic glass also faces inventory pressure. This week, the basis remains within the normal range, and subsequent market trading is more about policy expectations. It is expected that the rebound height and strength will be relatively limited [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. Core Views - The market is significantly affected by the Israel - Iran cease - fire news. Crude oil prices have dropped sharply as the geopolitical risk premium fades. Different energy and chemical products will gradually return to fundamental - driven pricing, with varying trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [1][2]. - For most products, short - term market trends are influenced by geopolitical factors, and mid - to long - term trends are determined by supply - demand relationships, production capacity changes, and cost factors. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 closed at $68.51, down $5.33 (-7.22%); Brent2508 closed at $71.48, down $5.53 (-7.18%); SC2508 closed at 537.7 yuan/barrel after night trading [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market prices in response to the cooling of geopolitical conflicts. If geopolitical conflicts ease, crude oil will return to fundamental pricing, with short - term trading on third - quarter peak - season expectations and long - term trading on the contradiction of increased supply - demand surplus under OPEC+ continuous production increases. The expected trading range for Brent in the third quarter is $60 - 72 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatility, with Brent trading in the range of $66 - 72 per barrel. Pay attention to the certainty of the Middle - East cease - fire [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3737 points (-1.16%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3574 points (-1.27%) at night. Spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the sharp drop in oil prices, the upward cost - driven factor for asphalt disappeared. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and inventory is lower than the same period. The price of the BU main contract is expected to range from 3600 to 3750 [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak and volatile. The spread between asphalt and crude oil will rebound [5]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Market Review**: PG2507 closed at 4538 (-0.42%) at night; PG2508 closed at 4522 (-0.18%) at night. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: With the decline in oil prices, the supply of LPG decreased slightly last week, and the international shipping volume decreased. The combustion - end demand is expected to be weak, while the chemical - sector demand is expected to increase. Overall, the fundamentals are relatively loose, and the price is expected to decline [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of LPG is expected to be weak [8]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 3341 (-0.83%) at night; LU08 closed at 3988 (-0.05%) at night. Singapore paper - cargo spreads changed [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil trading remains active, with high - sulfur cracking supported by geopolitical factors and peak - season power - generation demand. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing, but downstream demand is weak. The price of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be supported, while low - sulfur fuel oil needs to be observed for further trends [10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading. Consider taking profit on the positive spread of FU9 - 1 [11]. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas inventory accumulation was lower than expected. Production increased slightly, demand was at a historical high, and LNG export volume was 14.2 bcf/d. European natural gas prices decreased due to the cease - fire news. The price of natural gas is expected to rise [11][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH at dips and be bullish on TTF [13]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 7076 (-0.70%) at night. Spot prices increased, and PXN was $264/ton, up $8/ton [13][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: Many PX plants have maintenance plans or production cuts, and the Asian PX operating rate has declined recently, resulting in tight supply. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Long PX and short PTA for spreads [14][15]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4986 (-0.52%) at night. Spot prices and basis changed [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some PTA plants have reduced production or shut down, and the operating rate has decreased. Downstream polyester operating rate has increased, but profits have been compressed. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Long PX and short PTA for spreads [15][16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4454 (-1.04%) at night. Spot basis and prices changed [16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic and foreign plants have restarted or increased production, and the operating rate has increased significantly. Downstream polyester operating rate has increased, but terminal demand has weakened. The supply - demand pattern in June and July is still tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [17][18]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 closed at 6796 (-0.44%) at night. Spot prices increased, but downstream was mostly waiting and watching [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply has increased and demand has decreased recently, but production and sales are stable, and processing fees have increased. Some large factories have tight supply, and processing fees are expected to be strongly supported. The price is expected to fluctuate widely following raw materials [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Short PTA and long PF for spreads [19][20]. PR (Bottle Chips) - **Market Review**: PR2509 closed at 6172 (-0.58%) at night. Spot market trading was okay [19][20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some bottle - chip plants have increased production, and inventory has risen. Some plants have plans to reduce production or shut down. The price is expected to fluctuate widely following raw materials [20][21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [20][21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2508 closed at 7486 (-1.28%) at night. Spot prices and basis changed [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Pure - benzene prices are expected to be stable and slightly strong. Styrene supply has increased, and downstream operating rate is at a seasonal low. The price is mainly guided by cost factors and is expected to fluctuate widely [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [22]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE prices fluctuated, and PP prices were relatively stable [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: Previous price increases were affected by Middle - East geopolitics. After the cease - fire news, oil prices dropped, and plastic PP is expected to open lower. In the medium term, supply - demand is expected to be weak, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Open lower. Short - sell on rallies, paying attention to the certainty of the cease - fire and oil prices [25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC Market Review**: PVC prices were slightly adjusted, and trading was light [27]. - **PVC Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is still dragged down by the real - estate market. The medium - to long - term supply - demand is in surplus, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [29]. - **Caustic Soda Logic Analysis**: The 09 contract of caustic soda is expected to be weak. Demand is expected to have no significant increase in the medium term, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. A short - selling strategy is recommended [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell caustic soda and PVC. Hold the 8 - 10 reverse spread for caustic soda [31][32]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass 09 contract closed at 1009 yuan/ton (+0.20%) at night. Spot prices changed slightly [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by the real - estate market. The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Pay attention to cost reduction and plant cold - repair [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Sell out - of - the - money call options [34]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda - ash 09 contract closed at 1170 yuan/ton (-0.3%) at night. Spot prices fluctuated slightly [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. Inventory has increased, and costs have decreased. A short - selling strategy is recommended [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell soda ash. Sell out - of - the - money call options [36]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures closed at 1711 (-2%). Spot prices declined, and trading was weak [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and domestic demand is declining. International prices are strong, and export orders have increased, but the market is still expected to be weak in the short term [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend. Sell call options on rebounds [38]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures closed at 2469 (-1.71%). Spot prices in different regions varied [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: International supply has tightened, but domestic supply is loose. Downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is increasing. The price is expected to decline in the short term [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend. Sell call options [39]. Logs - **Market Review**: Log prices in some regions increased slightly, and the main contract price rose [39][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand is still weak, and the market faces challenges in the medium - to long - term. The futures market is supported by delivery rules. [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading. Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [42]. Double - Coated Paper - **Market Review**: The double - coated paper market was stable with some declines. Trading was general [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Industry profitability is low, production has decreased, but inventory pressure is still high. Demand is weak, and pulp prices provide limited support [43]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices declined slightly, and trading was weak [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply may be reduced, demand is in the off - season, and prices are expected to decline slightly in the next period [45]. Pulp - **Market Review**: Pulp futures declined. Spot prices of different types of pulp changed [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic paper production has increased, and Taiwan's paper production has declined. The price of the SP main contract is expected to be affected negatively [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the SP 09 contract. Hold the 5*SP2509 - 2*NR2509 spread [47]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Market Review**: RU09 closed at 13835 (-0.82%); NR08 closed at 12020 (+0.08%). Spot prices of different types of rubber changed [47][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: Vietnam's rubber industry faces challenges from EU regulations. Domestic inventory shows different trends. [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the RU09 contract. Hold short positions on the NR08 contract. Adjust stop - loss levels [50]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR08 closed at 11440 (-0.13%). Spot prices of butadiene rubber and related products changed [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic butadiene rubber inventory is increasing. Some tire projects are being invested [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell a small amount of the BR08 contract. Hold the BR2508 - NR2508 spread. Sell the BR2508 call 12200 contract [52][53].

核电站（资料图） 可事实上，中国在全球稀土产业中的地位难以撼动。数据显示，中国控制着全球约70%的稀土矿开采 量，85%的精炼产能，以及超90%的稀土金属合金和磁铁产量 。美国虽拥有一定稀土储量，却在关键的 分离提纯技术上，与中国存在着巨大差距。美国能源部此前资助的15个本土稀土项目，至今无一个实现 商业化量产 。而且，部分美国企业在重建本土稀土产业链时，连关键生产设备都依赖从中国进口 。如 此一来，美企所谓"一年逆袭"，更像是不切实际的口号，要想在稀土领域挑战中国，他们面临着技术、 产能、供应链等多方面短期内难以逾越的障碍。 在美企对中国稀土"宣战"之时，中国在中亚的合作取得了重大进展。6月17日，第二届中国—中亚峰会 在哈萨克斯坦举行 。峰会期间成果丰硕，中国与中亚国家签署了一系列合作文件。比如中工国际与哈 萨克斯坦苏打有限责任公司签署了江布尔州年产50万吨纯碱厂项目二期商务合同，合同金额达3.37亿美 元 。 据报道，近日有美企放话，要在一年后逆袭，打破中国在稀土领域的主导地位。与此同时，在第二届中 国—中亚峰会上，中国与中亚国家合作成果丰硕，拿下关键订单。这两件事看似孤立，实则反映了当下 复杂的国际经 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views - The glass and soda ash markets are experiencing a weak demand in the off - season, with both showing a trend of narrow - range fluctuations and a general outlook of weakening oscillations [1][2]. - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese markets have obvious off - season characteristics, with both showing a continuous oscillating trend [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures rebounded slightly yesterday. In the spot market, the morning buying sentiment was good, but the overall purchase volume was average. Except for a price increase of a small - board safety glass brand, other brands' quotes were stable [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures oscillated downward yesterday. In the spot market, the overall downstream procurement was average, mainly for rigid - demand restocking, and the speculative sentiment was weak [1]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: With some production lines in the red, the glass supply decreased month - on - month. The downstream rigid demand remained weak, and real - estate data was still at a low level. During the traditional consumption off - season, the high inventory of glass strongly suppressed prices. Attention should be paid to glass factories' cold - repair plans and profit situations [1]. - Soda Ash: As previously - overhauled alkali plants resumed production and new projects were launched, the soda ash output increased month - on - month, resulting in a relatively loose supply. The demand from the float and photovoltaic sectors weakened, and the real - estate sector continued to drag down consumption. With the expected contraction of float - glass supply in the future and the approaching of the short - term consumption off - season, the demand for heavy soda ash was expected to weaken further. In the long run, oversupply would continue to push down prices [1]. Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2]. - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2]. Double Silicon (Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon) Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: Yesterday, the main contract of silicomanganese futures fell by 6 yuan/ton to 5610 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the silicomanganese market oscillated. At the beginning of the week, the market was full of wait - and - see sentiment, and there were few spot quotes. The price of 6517 silicomanganese in the northern market was 5480 - 5530 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton. The silicomanganese output rebounded from a low level, the molten - iron output increased slightly, and the demand for silicomanganese increased slightly. The inventories of silicomanganese manufacturers and registered warrants were at medium - to - high levels, suppressing the price of silicomanganese. The port inventory of manganese ore decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to silicomanganese inventories and manganese - ore shipments [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Yesterday, the main contract of ferrosilicon futures closed at 5316 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the spot market, the ferrosilicon market rose slightly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5050 - 5150 yuan/ton (cash and tax included), and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5600 - 5750 yuan/ton. Currently, the ferrosilicon output increased month - on - month, the demand increased slightly, and the factory inventory was at a high level. As the consumption off - season approached, the consumption intensity of ferrosilicon would be tested. The ferrosilicon production capacity was relatively loose, and the short - term price was dragged down by costs. However, the overall restocking of ferrosilicon was in a healthy state. Attention should be paid to the impact of electricity - price changes and industrial policies on the black - metal sector [3]. Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4]. - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4].