大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂陆续公布检修计划，供给高位小幅下滑；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1320元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1289元/吨，基差为31元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存171.20万吨，较前一周增加0.63%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-5-19 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 2、中美 ...

现货价格及基差 品种 5月16日 5月15日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 14950 15000 -50 -0.33% 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) 45 -90 135 150.00% 元/吨 泰标混合胶报价 14600 14800 -200 -1.35% 非标价差 -305 -290 -15 -5.17% 品种 5月16日 5月15日 涨跌幅 单位 涨跌 杯胶：国际市场：FOB中间价 54.20 54.15 0.05 0.09% 泰铢/公斤 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 62.25 61.75 0.50 0.81% 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 13500 13300 200 1.50% 天然橡胶：胶水：西双版纳州 13700 0.73% 13800 100 元/吨 原料：市场主流价：海南 13500 13500 0 0.00% 外胶原料：市场主流价：海南 9000 9000 0.00 0.00% 月间价差 合约 5月16日 5月15日 涨跌幅 单位 涨跌 9-1价差 -835 -820 -15 -1.83% 1-5价差 -170 1050 -1220 -116.19% 元/吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash manufacturers continue with maintenance, but the price - support effect this time is not as expected. The futures market did not react to the maintenance, and a continuous positive feedback was not formed. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the intensity of speculation drivers is questionable. It is recommended to pay attention to the new order transaction prices and the implementation of maintenance. After profiting from closing short positions, one can wait for the price to rise and then participate at high levels [8][9]. - **Glass**: From a valuation perspective, it has entered an ideal layout range, but it is necessary to wait for the market sentiment to improve. Follow - up attention should be paid to the changes in production lines, the digestion progress of low - price futures and spot sources, and the changes in the spot volume and price sentiment in the main production areas. In the short term, the market lacks upward drivers, and for far - month contracts, it is advisable to go long when the sentiment eases [164]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Market Review - **Supply**: Total production is 67.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.30 million tons. There are maintenance plans, and new production capacity from Lianyungang Soda Plant is expected to produce trial products this month. Import is 0.07 million tons, and export is 4.2 million tons [8]. - **Demand**: The demand for heavy soda ash is 34.39 million tons, and the apparent demand for light soda ash is 28.09 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06 million tons. The terminal is looking for low - price stocks and has sufficient inventory, with general purchasing willingness [8]. - **Inventory**: Alkali plant inventory is 171.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 million tons. Social inventory is 36.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.09 million tons [8]. - **Valuation**: The cost of the ammonia - soda process is 1322 yuan, and the profit is 78 yuan. The cost of the combined - soda process is 1160 yuan, and the profit is 140 yuan [8]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand (Soda Ash) - **Production**: The report shows the monthly production of soda ash from 2020 - 2025 [15]. - **Import and Export**: The current import volume is 0.32 million tons, and the export volume is 19.43 million tons. Compared with last month, imports decreased by 0.23 million tons, and exports increased by 0.02 million tons [16]. 3.3 Basis and Spread (Soda Ash) - **Futures - Spot Price Comparison**: It presents the futures price index of soda ash and the market price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area from 2020 - 2025 [24][25]. - **Contract Basis**: It shows the basis of heavy soda ash contracts in the Shahe area, such as the 01, 09, and 05 contracts [29][31][32]. - **Inter - Contract Spread**: It includes the spreads between different soda ash contracts, such as 09 - 01, 01 - 05, and 05 - 09 [34][35][36]. - **Glass - Soda Ash Spread**: It shows the spreads between glass and soda ash contracts and spot prices [38][39][40]. 3.4 Soda Ash Market Price - **Shahe Region**: The current market price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1345 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan, and a year - on - year decrease of 905 yuan [44]. - **Regional Price Comparison**: It provides the prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions, such as North China, South China, and Southwest China [48]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply - **Start - Stop**: Many soda ash manufacturers are in maintenance or reduced - load operation, and there are also planned maintenance schedules in the future [81]. - **Operating Rate**: The current domestic soda ash operating rate is 80.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 8.51% [82]. - **Cost and Profit**: It shows the cost and profit of the ammonia - soda and combined - soda processes, as well as the prices of related products such as synthetic ammonia [93][95][97]. 3.6 Soda Ash Demand - **Heavy Soda Ash Demand**: It is related to the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass. The daily melting volume of float glass is 156,725 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass is 98,780 tons [8][126]. - **Weekly Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio**: It presents the weekly consumption and sales - to - production ratio of heavy and light soda ash [133]. 3.7 Soda Ash Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: The current soda ash enterprise inventory is 171.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 82.09 million tons [141]. - **Regional Inventory**: It shows the inventory of soda ash in different regions [149][150][152]. 3.8 Glass Market Review - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of float glass is 156,725 tons, and the weekly production is 109.71 million tons [162]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption is 107.10 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.37 million tons. The market demand sentiment is weak [162]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 340.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.61 million tons [162]. - **Valuation**: The cost and profit of different production lines (natural gas, coal - gas, and petroleum coke) are provided. Most production capacities are in a loss state [162]. 3.9 Monthly Supply and Demand (Glass) - **Production**: The monthly production of flat glass from 2020 - 2025 is presented [169]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volumes of float glass from 2020 - 2025 are shown [171][173]. 3.10 Basis and Spread (Glass) - **Futures - Spot Price Comparison**: It shows the futures price index of glass and the market price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area from 2020 - 2025 [178][179]. - **Contract Basis**: It presents the basis of glass contracts in the Shahe area, such as the 01, 09, and 05 contracts [183][184][185]. - **Inter - Contract Spread**: It includes the spreads between different glass contracts, such as 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 [187][188][189]. - **Glass - Soda Ash Spread**: It shows the spreads between glass and soda ash contracts and spot prices [192][193][194]. 3.11 Glass Market Price - **Float Glass 5mm Regional Price**: The prices of 5mm float glass in different regions, such as Shahe, North China, and East China, are provided [200]. - **Specific Product Prices**: It shows the prices of 5mm float glass products from different manufacturers in different regions [213][215][222].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: May 16, 2024 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Soda ash futures may have a short - term small - scale rebound in May but lack continuous upward momentum. The long - term pattern is one of oversupply, and prices are expected to enter a downward channel again in mid - to - late May [8]. - The cost support of float glass futures prices may appear in the short term, and the short - term market has a certain support due to the expectation of rush - to - export. However, the continuous game of supply - demand relationship is the key factor for the subsequent trend [10]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda ash futures**: On May 15, the main soda ash futures SA509 maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend, closing at 1330 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton with a 0.83% increase and an increase of 82,994 lots in positions [7]. - **Soda ash spot**: Supply and demand both decreased, and inventory accumulation continued. The weekly output in the week of May 15 fell to 677,700 tons, a decrease of 8.52%; the weekly operating load rate dropped to 83%. As of May 8, the shipment volume was 711,700 tons, a 7.26% decrease from the previous period. As of May 15, the weekly enterprise inventory of heavy - soda ash remained at 880,000 tons [8]. - **Glass futures**: The FG509 contract closed at 1036 yuan/ton on May 16, down 1 yuan/ton with a 0.09% decrease [7]. - **Glass market**: The overall profit of the float glass production industry increased slightly. Production remained stable, demand was relatively flat, downstream procurement was conservative, and inventory accumulated. The futures price was approaching the production cost line [9][10]. 2. Industry News - China and the US will maintain communication on economic and trade concerns based on the consensus of the Geneva talks [11]. - The domestic float glass market prices were generally stable with minor fluctuations, and trading was average. Different regions had different price trends [11]. - The baking soda market in Henan was operating steadily with a lukewarm trading atmosphere, and the mainstream ex - factory price of food - grade baking soda was estimated at 1200 - 1260 yuan/ton [11]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides charts on the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy - soda market prices, and flat glass production [13][19][21]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a volatile and weak manner [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants are gradually announcing maintenance plans, with supply slightly declining from the high level. The daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, but the terminal demand is average. The inventory of soda ash plants has declined but remains at a historical high, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei is 1,340 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2509 is 1,330 yuan/ton, with a basis of 10 yuan. The futures are at a discount to the spot, indicating a bullish outlook [2]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash plants is 171.20 million tons, an increase of 0.63% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - **Market**: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the strong supply and weak demand of soda ash fundamentals, it is expected to mainly operate in a volatile and weak manner in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash. The Sino - US tariff negotiation has made progress [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high. The cold repair of downstream float glass for heavy soda ash is at a high level, and the daily melting volume continues to decrease, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of soda ash is declining from the high level, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.12% from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37% from the previous value. The main basis is 10 yuan [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei is 1,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production - **Profit**: The profit of the heavy soda ash combined - alkali process in East China is 195 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy soda ash ammonia - alkali process in North China is - 29.60 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low in the same period [13]. - **Capacity and Output**: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.74%, and the operating rate has stabilized and rebounded. The weekly output of soda ash is 74.07 million tons, of which the output of heavy soda ash is 40.79 million tons, and the output has declined from the historical high [16][18]. - **Capacity Changes**: From 2023 to 2025, there are continuous new production capacity plans for soda ash. The planned new production capacity in 2023 is 640 million tons, 180 million tons in 2024, and 750 million tons in 2025 (with 60 million tons actually put into production) [19]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production heavy - soda ratio of soda ash is 55.07% [21]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The cold repair of downstream float glass for heavy soda ash is at a high level, and the daily melting volume continues to decrease, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 91,000 tons, and the production has stabilized [27]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 171.20 million tons, of which the inventory of heavy soda ash is 88.33 million tons, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [30]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [31].

关注微信公众号 | V (FF) | *业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月15日 | | | | 纪工菲 Z0013180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品相 | 5月14日 | 5月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 0000 | 9100 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基美(通氢SI5530基准) | eto | 870 | -260 | -29.89% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 10000 | 10000 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 710 | 970 | -260 | -26.80% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8300 | 8300 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 墓差(新疆) | 610 | 870 | -260 | -29.89% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 5月14日 | 5 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, in the short - term, there is a marginal improvement. Driven by production cut expectations, the soda ash futures price in May may have a brief and small - scale rebound, but it lacks the power for continuous growth. In the long - term, the market is in an oversupply situation. Around mid - to late May, as the positive effects of maintenance fade and the supply - demand contradiction becomes prominent again, the price will enter a downward channel [8]. - For glass, the overall profit in the float glass production field using natural gas, coal, and oil as main raw materials has increased slightly. The current output of float glass remains relatively stable. The demand side is relatively dull, and downstream enterprises' inventory has accumulated to some extent. The futures price is approaching the production cost line, and the cost support is expected to show in the short - term. The short - term market has an expectation of rushing for exports due to the Sino - US tariff agreement, which provides some support to the market. However, the continuous game of supply - demand relationship is still the key factor for the subsequent trend of the float glass market [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: On May 15, for soda ash futures, SA505 opened at 1272, closed at 1296, up 24 yuan/ton (1.88%), with a position of 0.29 million lots and a decrease of 218 lots; SA509 opened at 1285, closed at 1345, up 35 yuan/ton (2.67%), with a position of 118.72 million lots and a decrease of 162,061 lots. For glass futures, FG505 opened at 1015, closed at 1042, up 6 yuan/ton (0.57%), with a position of 0.42 million lots and a decrease of 749 lots; FG509 opened at 1015, closed at 1046, up 14 yuan/ton (1.35%), with a position of 140.96 million lots and a decrease of 53,826 lots [7]. - **Soda Ash Situation**: The supply and demand of soda ash both decreased, and the inventory accumulation situation still exists. In the week of May 8, the weekly output of Chinese soda ash reached 757,000 tons, which was at the highest level this year though it declined compared with the previous week. The weekly operating load rate of Chinese soda ash remained at 90%. As of May 8, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 711,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.26%. The weekly enterprise inventory of Chinese soda ash (heavy soda ash) remained at 872,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend [8]. - **Glass Situation**: The supply side of glass has a slight profit increase, and the output is stable. The demand side is dull, and downstream enterprises purchase conservatively, leading to inventory accumulation. The futures price is approaching the production cost line, and cost support is expected to emerge in the short - term. The Sino - US tariff agreement brings short - term export expectations [9][10]. 3.2 Industry News - **Soda Ash Market**: The domestic soda ash market was slightly adjusted today. The trading atmosphere was lukewarm. Some soda ash plants such as Henan Junhua, Huachang Chemical, and Shilian Chemical had production stoppages or were under maintenance, reducing the supply. The futures market fluctuated, and downstream demand was average, with end - users mainly making rigid purchases. Some soda ash plants in East China raised their new order quotes slightly [11]. - **Glass Market**: The domestic float glass market prices continued to decline steadily. Different regions had different price trends: North China was weak, East China was affected by price cuts in surrounding areas, Central China had mixed price changes, South China had a small price increase in some enterprises, and Southwest China's price was stable [11]. - **Baking Soda Market**: Henan Jinshan Chemical's baking soda plant started maintenance last night. The quoted price for food - grade, feed - grade, and industrial - grade baking soda is 1250 - 1300 yuan/ton, with actual orders negotiated separately, and the sales were stable [11]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and the output of flat glass, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [13][17][18].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [4] 2. Core Views - The improvement of tariff policies has led to positive market sentiment, with glass, soda ash, and ferrous alloys showing rebounds [1][3] - Glass and soda ash markets face challenges in supply - demand balance, while ferrous alloys are affected by factors such as tariff policies, industry profits, and raw material costs [1][3] 3. Summary by Product Glass - Market: The glass futures market showed a strong - side oscillation, while the spot market had general transactions with manufacturers offering discounts [1] - Supply - demand: Glass production has been declining, but due to insufficient demand recovery in real estate and deep - processing industries, inventory has increased significantly, and prices lack upward momentum. Enterprises may be more inclined to reduce prices to clear inventory during the high - temperature and rainy season [1] Soda Ash - Market: The soda ash futures market oscillated upwards with a significant increase in trading volume, and the spot market was stable with flexible transaction prices [1] - Supply - demand: Soda ash production has declined due to increased alkali plant maintenance but remains in a loose state. The growth of photovoltaic demand has slowed down, and the pressure to reduce inventory is still large [1] Silicomanganese - Market: After the mutual reduction of tariffs between China and the US, the market sentiment improved, and the silicomanganese futures rebounded slightly. The spot market was fair, with some factories reducing production for maintenance. The northern market price was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and the southern market price was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand: Silicomanganese production has continued to decline due to industry profits and is at a low level over the years. Iron - making water production remains high, providing demand resilience. High inventories of manufacturers and registered warrants suppress prices, but low manganese ore port inventories support alloy costs [3] Ferrosilicon - Market: The ferrosilicon futures rebounded slightly following the black - metal sector, while the spot market was weak with cautious operations. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production area was 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand: Ferrosilicon production remains at a medium - low level due to corporate losses. High iron - making water production maintains demand resilience, and factory inventories are continuously decreasing, while downstream enterprise inventories are low. Short - term prices are dragged down by costs [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly. The supply of soda ash is at a high level but declining, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants are gradually announcing maintenance plans, with supply slightly declining from a high level. The daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, terminal demand is average, and the inventory of soda ash plants is declining but still at a historical high. It is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1345 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1345 yuan/ton, and the basis is 0 yuan. The futures are at par with the spot. It is neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1701300 tons, an increase of 1.74% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average. It is bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. It is neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [2]. 3.2 Influence Factors - **Positive Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash, and progress has been made in Sino - US tariff negotiations [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with the industry output at a historical high in the same period. The cold - repair of heavy - alkali downstream float glass is at a high level, the daily melting volume is continuously decreasing, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Percentage Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1291 | 1345 | 4.18% | | Low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | 1325 | 1345 | 1.51% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | 34 | 0 | - 100.00% | [5] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1345 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production - **Profit**: The profit of the combined - alkali method for heavy - alkali in East China is 195 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method for heavy - alkali in North China is - 29.60 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low in the same period [13]. - **Weekly Industry Operating Rate**: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.74%, and the operating rate has stabilized and rebounded [16]. - **Weekly Output**: The weekly output of soda ash is 740700 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 407900 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [18]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with 600,000 tons actually put into production [19]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production heavy - quality rate of soda ash is 55.07% [21][24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 91,000 tons, and the output has stabilized [27]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total domestic inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1701300 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 872200 tons, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [30]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Imports (10,000 tons) | Exports (10,000 tons) | Net Imports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3087 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [31]

Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]