Report Investment Ratings - Glass: Neutral, Expected to Oscillate [2] - Soda Ash: Bearish, Expected to Oscillate with a Downward Bias [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Neutral, Expected to Oscillate [5] - Ferrosilicon: Neutral, Expected to Oscillate [5] Core Views - Glass and soda ash markets face an oversupply situation, resulting in low - level oscillations. The glass market is pressured by high inventory and weak downstream expectations, while soda ash is affected by new production capacity and cautious downstream procurement [1]. - The ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are pessimistic. Their prices are suppressed by high inventory, but demand shows some resilience due to high - level hot metal production. Cost factors also play a role in price trends [3][4]. Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Futures prices continued to decline, and spot trading was weak. The oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and high inventory strongly suppresses prices. Glass enterprises are reluctant to shut down production, and long - term losses are needed to clear excess capacity. Attention should be paid to production line changes and raw material prices [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Futures prices trended downward. Due to maintenance, daily production decreased slightly. Downstream procurement was cautious, and the market faced strong destocking pressure. The price will be under pressure until the oversupply situation is alleviated. Follow - up attention should be paid to production line maintenance and new production projects [1]. Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon - **Ferrosilicon Manganese**: Futures prices oscillated at a low level. The spot market was weak, and factory low - price sales willingness was low. Production was at a low level but rebounded slightly week - on - week. Demand showed resilience due to high - level hot metal production. High inventory of manufacturers and registered warrants suppressed prices, while raw material supply contraction supported costs. Attention should be paid to hot metal data and manganese ore supply [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Futures prices oscillated weakly at a low level. The spot market was weak, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. Production reached a record low due to enterprise losses. High - level hot metal maintained demand resilience, but destocking was difficult. Short - term prices were affected by costs. Attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies [4]. Strategy - **Glass**: Oscillate [2] - **Soda Ash**: Oscillate with a downward bias [2] - **Ferrosilicon Manganese**: Oscillate [5] - **Ferrosilicon**: Oscillate [5] - **Inter - period Spread**: No strategy [2] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: No strategy [2]

Group 1 - As of May 29, 2023, seven steel mills in Shandong have confirmed a total annual production target of 55.33 million tons, a decrease of approximately 3.5 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a planned reduction in crude steel production of 4%-10% for 2025 [1] - According to Mysteel, as of May 29, the production of rebar has shifted from an increase to a decrease, with social inventories declining for the twelfth consecutive week, while market demand has increased slightly to 2.4868 million tons, up by 15,500 tons or 0.63% from the previous week [1] - A stainless steel plant in South China plans to halt production for approximately 25 days starting July 5 due to ultra-low emission renovations, which is expected to impact stainless steel output by 80,000 tons [1] Group 2 - The Malaysian government plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio for ground transportation vehicles from B10 to B20 [1] - As of May 25, 2023, Canadian canola exports decreased by 10.36% week-on-week to 160,100 tons, while commercial inventories stood at 919,900 tons [1] - As of May 29, the total inventory of float glass in China was 67.662 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 107,000 boxes week-on-week, while the total inventory of soda ash was 1.6243 million tons, down by 52,500 tons [2] Group 3 - OPEC+ member countries are expected to decide on increasing oil production at a meeting on May 31, although the potential scale of the increase remains unclear [2] - A major aluminum supplier has lowered its aluminum premium for shipments to Japan in Q3 to $145 per ton, down by 20% from Q2's $182 per ton [3]

以刚需为主，汽车玻璃厂备货量增加难以抵消地产相关需求疲软，光伏玻璃需求也面临库存压力。当下价 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 拉动。注意仓位操作，操作上建议，纯碱主力逢高空.玻璃方面，供应端：部分地区产线复产，且下周有产 线存点火计划，预计周度产量存增加预期。行业整体利润不佳，企业挺价意愿有限，供应压力对价格上行 免责声明 形成阻力。需求端当前地产形势不容乐观，传统淡季下需求将进一步走弱。下游深加工订单不稳定，采购 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-05-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1203 | -12 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 985 | -24 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 218 | 12 纯碱主力合约持仓量 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities experiencing various trends such as震荡 (side - ways movement), decline, or potential for price adjustments. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have stable lower support but face high upper - breakthrough pressure. Trading volume is low, and there is no clear trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the short - term, 10 - year Treasury bond rates may fluctuate between 1.65% - 1.7%, and 30 - year rates between 1.85% - 1.95%. The market is in a narrow - range震荡, waiting for fundamental guidance. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and observing, while paying attention to high - frequency economic data and fund - flow dynamics. For the 2509 contract, a positive arbitrage strategy is recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fails to continue its upward trend due to a lack of clear drivers and may maintain a震荡 pattern. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold option straddles can be used to earn time value. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and it is recommended to sell relatively out - of - the - money call options [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. Steel mill maintenance is increasing, and hot metal production is falling from its peak. For the RB2510 contract, unilateral operations are on hold, and attention is given to the strategy of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Attention is paid to the support around 670 - 680 [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of coke price cuts by major steel mills was implemented on the 28th. There is still a possibility of further price cuts, and it is recommended to short the J2509 contract at an appropriate time [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction is continuously cold, coal mine production is at a high level, and inventory is high. There is still a possibility of price decline, and it is recommended to short the JM2509 contract [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate, and the market is waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI is expected to fluctuate between [59, 69], Brent between [61, 71], and SC between [440, 500]. For arbitrage, attention is paid to the INE month - spread rebound opportunities [2]. - **Urea**: Under high - supply pressure, the market is searching for a bottom in a震荡 pattern. It is recommended to use a medium - to - long - term band trading strategy and a short - term unilateral bearish strategy. The main contract's fluctuation range is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but the spot market is tight, so there is support at low levels. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 6500 - 6800. A light - position reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1 can be tried, and the PX - SC spread can be shorted when it is high [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but raw - material support is strong. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 4600 - 4800, and a reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 is recommended [2]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supported by pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking, attention is paid to the support at 13500 [2]. - **Corn**: The market price will震荡 around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: There are both bullish and bearish factors, and oils and fats are in a narrow - range震荡. Palm oil may reach 8100 in the short - term [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct bearish trading on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak, and bearish trading on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: Market sentiment has weakened again. Attention is paid to the support at the 1000 - point level for the FG2509 contract [2]. - **Rubber**: With a weak fundamental outlook, the RU contract has increased positions and declined. Short positions should be held, and attention is paid to the support around 13000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are still falling under high - supply pressure, and the fundamentals remain bearish [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures have stabilized and are in a震荡 pattern. If there are long positions, hold them cautiously [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak震荡 adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 58,000 - 62,000 [2].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the context of expected supply increase and weak demand, the subsequent rubber price is expected to show a weak oscillation. It is recommended to hold short positions, with the lower support temporarily seen at 13,000 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On May 27, the price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0.70% from the previous day. The basis of whole milk (switched to the 2509 contract) was -95 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 5.00%. The quoted price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 13,800 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan or -4.17% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: On May 27, the 9 - 1 spread was -780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or -2.63%; the 1 - 5 spread was -70 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan or 44.00%; the 5 - 9 spread was 850 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or -3.95% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In April, Thailand's natural rubber production was 105.70 thousand tons, down 43.50 thousand tons or -29.16% from the previous value; Indonesia's production was 194.10 thousand tons, down 15.20 thousand tons or -7.26%; India's production was 45.40 thousand tons, down 7.60 thousand tons or -14.34%; China's production was 58.10 thousand tons, up 42.30 thousand tons. The weekly开工 rate of semi - steel tires was 78.22%, down 0.11 percentage points; the weekly开工 rate of all - steel tires was 64.96%, down 0.13 percentage points [1]. - **Inventory Change**: As of May 27, the bonded area inventory was 614,189 tons, down 4,504 tons or -0.73%; the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 43,544 tons, down 26,713 tons or -38.02% [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: In the short term, the decline of the futures market has slowed down, and it is more likely that the inventory will remain flat. In the medium and long term, there is still pressure for further inventory accumulation after the maintenance. It is recommended to track the implementation of maintenance in May - June. If the maintenance is implemented, it will be beneficial to the June - July contracts. For unilateral trading, continue to short on rebounds in the far - month contracts, and consider the 7 - 9 positive spread for monthly trading [2]. - **Glass**: The spot market is generally weak, and the market sentiment is still pessimistic. Although the fundamentals have improved marginally, the market expectation is poor. It is expected that the glass price will continue to be under pressure in the short term and oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the support at the 1,000 - point level for the 09 contract [2]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: On May 29, the spot prices in North China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged, while the price in East China was 1,300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or -0.76%. The price of the glass 2505 contract was 1,114 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan or -1.15%; the price of the 2509 contract was 1,009 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan or -2.13% [2]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: On May 29, the spot prices in North China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged, while the price in East China was 1,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or -3.45%. The price of the soda ash 2505 contract was 1,260 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or -0.63%; the price of the 2509 contract was 1,215 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan or -1.26% [2]. - **Supply**: As of May 23, the soda ash开工 rate was 78.63%, down 2.04 percentage points from May 16; the weekly soda ash output was 663,800 tons, down 14,000 tons or -2.05%. The daily melting volume of float glass was 156,700 tons, unchanged; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 99,990 tons, unchanged [2]. - **Inventory**: As of May 23, the glass factory - warehouse inventory was 67,769,000 weight boxes, down 313,000 weight boxes or -0.46%; the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory was 1.6768 million tons, down 35,000 tons or -2.06%; the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory was 368,000 tons, up 3,000 tons or 0.82% [2]. - **Real Estate Data**: In the current period, the year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was -18.73%, an increase of 2.99 percentage points; the growth rate of construction area was -33.33%, a decrease of 7.56 percentage points; the growth rate of completed area was -11.68%, an increase of 15.67 percentage points; the growth rate of sales area was -1.55%, an increase of 12.13 percentage points [2]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of industrial silicon has stabilized, while the futures price has continued to decline. The main reason from the fundamental perspective is that the demand has not improved, but the supply is expected to increase month - on - month. The price may still be under pressure [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On May 28, the price of oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon in East China was 8,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of SI4210 industrial silicon was 9,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or -0.54%. The basis of SI4210 increased by 120 yuan or 14.29% [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: On May 28, the 2506 - 2507 spread was -30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or -20.00%; the 2507 - 2508 spread was -25 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 28.57% [4]. - **Fundamentals (Monthly)**: In April, the national industrial silicon production was 300.8 thousand tons, down 41.4 thousand tons or -12.10%; Xinjiang's production was 167.5 thousand tons, down 43.3 thousand tons or -20.55%; Yunnan's production was 13.5 thousand tons, up 1.2 thousand tons or 9.35%; Sichuan's production was 11.3 thousand tons, up 6.7 thousand tons or 145.65%. The national开工 rate was 51.23%, down 6.57 percentage points; Xinjiang's开工 rate was 60.74%, down 17.31 percentage points; Yunnan's开工 rate was 18.13%, down 1.84 percentage points; Sichuan's开工 rate was 7.30%, up 6.81 percentage points [4]. - **Inventory Change**: As of May 28, the Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory was 187.4 thousand tons, down 14 thousand tons or -6.95%; the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory was 24.1 thousand tons, up 0.3 thousand tons or 1.26%; the Sichuan factory - warehouse inventory was 22.5 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons or -0.44%; the social inventory was 582 thousand tons, down 17 thousand tons or -2.84%; the warehouse receipt inventory was 321.4 thousand tons, down 1.7 thousand tons or -0.53%; the non - warehouse receipt inventory was 260.6 thousand tons, down 15.3 thousand tons or -5.55% [4]. Group 4: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of polysilicon has gradually stabilized, and the futures price has also shown signs of stabilization. In June, it is expected that the supply and demand will be weak. There is a risk of inventory accumulation if there is no further production cut. Pay attention to the production and inventory changes of polysilicon [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On May 28, the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of P - type cauliflower material was 30,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of N - type granular silicon was 34,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The N - type material spread increased by 190 yuan or 15.70%; the cauliflower material basis increased by 190 yuan or 2.83% [5]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: On May 28, the price of the PS2506 contract was 35,100 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan or -0.54%. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread was 2,450 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 4.26% [5]. - **Fundamentals (Weekly)**: The silicon wafer production was 13.3 GW, up 0.88 GW or 7.09%; the polysilicon production was 21.5 thousand tons, up 0.1 thousand tons or 0.47% [5]. - **Fundamentals (Monthly)**: In April, the polysilicon production was 95.4 thousand tons, down 0.7 thousand tons or -0.73%; the import volume was 0.1 thousand tons, down 0.22 thousand tons or -69.49%; the export volume was 0.13 thousand tons, down 0.07 thousand tons or -37.06%; the net export volume was 0.03 thousand tons, an increase of 0.14 thousand tons or 127.44%. The silicon wafer production was 58.35 GW, up 7.59 GW or 14.95%; the import volume was 0.09 thousand tons, up 0.03 thousand tons or 46.90%; the export volume was 0.63 thousand tons, up 0.04 thousand tons or 7.13%; the net export volume was 0.55 thousand tons, up 0.01 thousand tons or 2.64%; the demand for silicon wafers was 65.95 GW, up 8.28 GW or 14.36% [5]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory was 260 thousand tons, up 10 thousand tons or 4.00%; the silicon wafer inventory was 18.95 GW, down 0.49 GW or -2.52%; the polysilicon warehouse receipt was 470, unchanged [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - For soda ash, supply pressure remains high despite a decline in the industry's operating rate due to some enterprises' maintenance plans, as new capacity from companies like Yuanxing Energy may be released at any time. Demand from the glass industry is weak, with float glass affected by the sluggish real - estate sector and the photovoltaic industry facing over - capacity issues. Other downstream industries have limited demand. It is recommended to short the soda ash main contract on rallies [2]. - For glass, some production lines are resuming production, and there are plans for more ignitions, increasing supply pressure. Demand is weak due to the poor real - estate situation and the traditional off - season. However, prices may have a technical rebound near the cost line of some low - cost production lines. It is recommended to go long on the glass main contract on dips [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1215 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1009 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan. The price difference between soda ash and glass is 206 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. Soda ash main contract open interest is 1561375 lots, up 2314 lots; glass main contract open interest is 1524157 lots, up 42066 lots [2]. - Soda ash's top 20 net open interest is - 267397 lots, up 2876 lots; glass's top 20 net open interest is - 225883 lots, down 68587 lots. Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 1691 tons, unchanged; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [2]. - The price difference between September and January contracts of soda ash is 8 yuan, down 11 yuan; that of glass is - 59 yuan, down 6 yuan. Soda ash basis is 19 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; glass basis is 49 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash price is 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China heavy soda ash price is 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged. East China light soda ash price is 1365 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; Central China light soda ash price is 1325 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Shahe glass large - plate price is 1080 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass large - plate price is 1110 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 78.63%, down 1.64 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.34%, up 0.34 percentage points. Glass in - production capacity is 15.63 million tons/year, unchanged; glass in - production line number is 223, up 1 [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 160.23 million tons, down 7.45 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 6776.9 million weight boxes, down 31.3 million weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Real - estate new construction area cumulative value is 17835.84 million square meters, up 4839.38 million square meters; real - estate completion area cumulative value is 15647.85 million square meters, up 2587.58 million square meters [2]. Industry News - The China - EU semiconductor upstream and downstream enterprise symposium was held in Beijing. As of the end of April, the national local government debt balance was 506931 billion yuan. From January to April, state - owned enterprises' total revenue was 262755.0 billion yuan, the same as last year, and the total profit was 13491.4 billion yuan, down 1.7% year - on - year. The National Data Bureau is formulating policies to cultivate the national integrated data market [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", etc., but does not give a unified industry investment rating [5][6] Core View of the Report - The black market has seen continuous days of increased - position decline, with the spot market cautious and prices dropping. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak and export pessimism has intensified, if exports do not deteriorate significantly, the current industry supply - demand situation does not support a trend - based decline. The market trading logic has shifted to the domestic industry fundamentals, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1][2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Situation of the Black Industry - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the "rush for exports" is less than expected. Some blast furnaces are under maintenance, and hot metal production has declined from its peak. However, steel inventory pressure is not large this year compared to last year, and steel mill profits are acceptable. Overseas mine new - capacity increments are not obvious, and port inventories are continuously decreasing [1][2] - **Market Outlook**: If exports do not deteriorate significantly, the current industry supply - demand situation does not support a trend - based decline [1][2][5] Iron Element (Iron Ore) - **Supply**: Short - term supply increments are not obvious due to the slower - than - expected progress of overseas new projects, and the expected supply increment for the year will be adjusted downwards [2][6] - **Demand**: Steel enterprises have relatively little short - term passive production - reduction pressure [2][6] - **Inventory**: Port inventories are decreasing, and the total inventory has declined [2][6] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term supply and demand are balanced, but due to the marginal weakening of steel exports and the decline of hot metal production, the market is trading the industry's "negative feedback", and iron ore prices are under downward pressure. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate [2][6] Carbon Element (Coking Coal and Coke) Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some coal mines have reduced production due to accidents and maintenance, but most main - producing area coal mines maintain normal production, and coking coal production remains high and stable. Mongolian coal port inventories are continuously accumulating, and traders face large shipment pressures, so overall supply is sufficient [3][8] - **Demand**: Coke production is at a high level in the same period, but coke enterprises face increasing inventory - reduction pressure, low coking profits, and limited space for coke production increase [3][8] - **Inventory**: As the coke price reduction cycle begins, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for raw material replenishment decreases, and the upstream inventory pressure of coking coal gradually increases [3][8] - **Market Outlook**: Supply pressure is difficult to resolve, and there is room for further decline in valuation. The futures price is expected to continue its weak trend [3][8] Coke - **Supply**: Coke enterprise profits have slightly shrunk, but upstream inventory pressure is acceptable, and the overall coke production level remains stable [6][7] - **Demand**: Hot metal production has declined from its peak, and terminal steel demand is gradually entering the off - season, so hot metal production may further decline in the future [6][7] - **Market Outlook**: With stable upstream supply and weakening demand support, and cost - end drag, coke prices are prone to fall and difficult to rise. In the short term, the futures market is expected to remain weak [6][7] Alloys (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Silicon Manganese - **Supply**: There has been an increase in the resumption of production in Inner Mongolia recently, and production is expected to increase. As manganese ore shipments resume, port inventories of manganese ore are slowly rising [3][10][11] - **Demand**: Market sentiment remains cautious, and the supply - demand relationship tends to be loose [10][11] - **Market Outlook**: After the price decline, it is expected to oscillate under pressure in the short term, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term [10][11] Silicon Iron - **Supply**: A large silicon - iron factory in Inner Mongolia has shut down some furnaces, and daily silicon - iron production has decreased [12] - **Demand**: Steel mill tenders in May have basically completed procurement, and terminal steel is about to enter the off - season. The market demand expectation remains cautious, and the demand in the magnesium metal market is weak [12] - **Market Outlook**: Supply and demand contradictions have eased, but there is still an expectation of cost loosening. The futures market is expected to oscillate under pressure in the short term [12] Glass - **Demand**: Demand decline in the off - season is not obvious, and deep - processing demand has improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. Spot production and sales have weakened [8] - **Supply**: Daily melting volume remains stable. Low prices suppress the willingness to resume production, and the willingness for cold repair is not obvious. Market rumors about environmental protection issues of Hubei production lines have led to a small rebound in the futures market [8] - **Inventory**: Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and mid - stream inventories have declined [8] - **Market Outlook**: Real - world demand faces certain pressure in the off - season, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. The short - term view is to maintain oscillation [8] Soda Ash - **Supply**: The over - supply pattern has not changed. Although there are many maintenance operations in May, some enterprises have resumed production, and supply pressure still exists [5][9] - **Demand**: Heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. The overall daily melting volume of float glass fluctuates little, and there are still production lines being ignited in the photovoltaic industry, but the growth of photovoltaic glass daily melting volume may not be sustainable [9] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center will still decline in the long term [5][9] Steel - **Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major steel products has decreased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the decline has further widened. Domestic demand is still weak, but the overall steel contradictions are limited. Attention should be paid to the export demand situation [6] - **Supply**: Hot metal production is at a high level, and overall steel production has increased [6] - **Market Outlook**: The fundamentals have weakened month - on - month this week, and domestic off - season demand is still under pressure. However, overseas demand may be able to absorb the current high production after the export is no longer restricted by tariffs. The key lies in when exports will weaken. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6] Scrap Steel - **Supply**: The five - day average arrival volume has rebounded compared to last week and is at a relatively high level in the same period [6] - **Demand**: The daily consumption of electric furnaces has slightly increased, mainly in East and Southwest China. The hot metal production of blast furnaces has slightly decreased, and the cost - performance of scrap steel has decreased, so the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has decreased, and the total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has slightly increased [6] - **Inventory**: After the arrival volume rebounded, the factory inventory has slightly increased and is higher than the same period [6] - **Market Outlook**: The market is pessimistic about off - season demand, finished - product prices are under pressure, and the loss of electric furnaces during off - peak hours has intensified. The future price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The supply has declined from its high level, and the terminal demand has limited improvement. Although the inventory has been continuously decreasing, it remains at a high level compared to the same period. The industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved. Short - term, soda ash is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2][5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant overhauls are gradually resuming. Supply has declined from its high level and is gradually stabilizing. The daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, and the terminal demand is average. The soda ash plant inventory has decreased but is still at a historical high. This is a bearish factor [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,290 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,231 yuan/ton, and the basis is 59 yuan. The futures are at a discount to the spot, which is a bullish factor [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 167.68 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous week. The inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is a bearish factor [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is a bearish factor [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is a bearish factor [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the supply - demand situation, soda ash is expected to operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, which boosts the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's output is at a historical high. Also, the cold repair of downstream float glass for heavy soda is at a high level, and the daily melting volume is continuously decreasing, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,254 | 1,300 | 46 | | Current Value | 1,231 | 1,290 | 59 | | Change Rate | - 1.83% | - 0.77% | 28.26% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of the combined ammonia - soda method for heavy soda in East China is 188 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda method for heavy soda in North China is - 14.60 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production Volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 78.63%, and the operating rate is expected to stabilize and rebound. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 67.38 million tons, of which heavy soda ash is 36 million tons, and the production has declined from its historical high [19][21]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 billion tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 billion tons. In 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 billion tons, with an actual production of 600 million tons [23]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly heavy - quality production rate of soda ash is 54.23% [25]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.67 million tons, and the operating rate of 75.34% is continuously declining, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [28]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.1 million tons, and the production has stabilized [31]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 167.68 million tons, of which heavy soda ash is 84.40 million tons, and the inventory is at a historical high compared to the same period [34]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet shows the situation of effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates of capacity, production, apparent supply, and total demand from 2017 to 2024E [35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the black market is oscillating downward. Glass and soda ash are affected by supply disturbances, with glass showing strength and soda ash showing weakness on the futures market. The double-silicon market is weak due to low market sentiment [1][3]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Analysis Market Analysis - Glass futures oscillated upward yesterday with strong speculative sentiment. In the spot market, the shipment of manufacturers in the Shahe area was acceptable, the East China market was weakly sorted, most enterprises in the Central China region remained stable, the market price in the South China region was stable, the demand in the Northeast market was poor, the enterprise shipment was restricted, and the transaction in the Southwest region continued to slow down [1]. - Soda ash futures showed a weak oscillating downward trend yesterday. In the spot market, the domestic soda ash price was weakly stable with flexible transaction prices, and downstream buyers made appropriate purchases at low prices [1]. Supply and Demand Logic - The real estate completion data is still poor, leading to a pessimistic outlook for glass consumption. Currently, glass production is at a low level, downstream consumption is weak, short-term restocking cannot change the weak reality, and high inventory suppresses prices. In the short term, glass is under pressure, and future attention should be paid to changes in glass production lines and real estate data [1]. - With the successive implementation of new production projects, the high supply pressure of soda ash has emerged again. It is expected that the pressure to reduce inventory will be relatively large in the future, and prices will still be under pressure. Future attention should be paid to the intermittent maintenance and new production of soda ash production lines [1]. Strategy - Glass is expected to oscillate, while soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly. There are no strategies for inter - period or inter - variety trading [2]. Group 4: Double - Silicon Analysis Market Analysis - Silicon manganese futures continued to decline yesterday, with a decline of 0.92%. In the spot market, the silicon manganese market was weak, with few factory quotes. The price of 6517 in the northern and southern markets was 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton. Affected by industry profits, silicon manganese production is at a low level, with a slight week - on - week increase, and is generally at a low level in recent years. Currently, hot metal production remains at a high level in the same period, and the demand for silicon manganese is resilient. However, considering the strong expectation that hot metal production has peaked, it suppresses the futures market. High inventory of silicon manganese manufacturers and registered warrants suppress the price of silicon manganese. The port inventory of manganese ore has slightly increased from a low level, and the continuous decline in manganese ore prices has dragged down shipments, which supports the cost of alloys. Future attention should be paid to the supply side of manganese ore [3]. - Silicon iron futures continued to be weak yesterday. In the spot market, the silicon iron market was weak, and most operations were cautious. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton. Against the background of enterprise losses, silicon iron production has dropped to the lowest level in recent years. High hot metal production maintains the resilience of silicon iron demand, but the inventory reduction of manufacturers has become weak, and the inventory of downstream enterprises remains low. Silicon iron production capacity is relatively abundant, and short - term prices are dragged down by costs. Future attention should be paid to changes in electricity prices and the impact of industrial policies on the black sector [3]. Strategy - For silicon manganese, the near - month contracts are suppressed by warrants, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of a low - level rebound in the far - month contracts. Silicon iron is expected to oscillate [4].