Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market may pre - price the Fed's probability of restarting interest rate cuts during the September interest rate meeting this week [2]. - The technology sector in stock index futures has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors [2]. - Treasury bond futures first declined and then rose, with an increasing expectation of central bank bond - buying [2]. - The Fed's decision may intensify market divergence and increase short - term volatility [2]. - The main contract of the container shipping index is weakly volatile [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, driving up steel prices [2]. - Iron ore prices are supported by factors such as resumed shipments, increased hot metal production, and restocking demand [2]. - The prices of some energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply - demand patterns, production maintenance, and inventory changes [2]. - The prices of some agricultural products are influenced by factors like supply, demand, and market sentiment [2]. - Some special and new - energy commodities are affected by factors such as cost, macro - environment, and industry meetings [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The technology mainline in stock index futures has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors. If volatility continues to decline, a double - buying strategy for options can be attempted [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures first declined and then rose, with an increasing expectation of central bank bond - buying. A unilateral strategy suggests investors wait and see, and pay short - term attention to changes in the capital market, the equity market, and fundamentals [2]. Precious Metals - Before the Fed's decision, the expectation of easing has been rising, and the US dollar index has fallen to the lowest point of the year. For gold, it is recommended to wait and see and then buy on dips after the decision. An option double - buying strategy at the strike price of 840 can be tried. Silver has high elasticity above $42, but volatility may rise and then fall after the decision. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on rallies [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The main contract is weakly volatile, and a spread arbitrage between December and October can be considered [2]. Steel and Related Products - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. It is recommended to go long on steel in the short term. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and short hot - rolled coils. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300, and short coke. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and short coke [2]. Energy and Chemical Products - For crude oil, it is recommended to mainly wait and see unilaterally. For urea, wait and see unilaterally, with a short - term support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton. For PX, it is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 6900 in the short term. For PTA, it is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4800 in the short term and conduct a rolling reverse spread between TA1 and TA5. For short - fiber, it has no obvious short - term driver and follows raw materials. For bottle - grade polyester chips, its demand may decline in September, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton. For ethylene glycol, wait and see unilaterally and conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread. For caustic soda, wait and see. For PVC, wait and see. For pure benzene, it follows styrene and oil prices in the short term. For styrene, conduct a rolling low - buying strategy and pay attention to the pressure around 7200, and widen the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level. For synthetic rubber, its price is expected to fluctuate between 11400 - 12500. For LLDPE, it will oscillate between 7150 - 7450 in the short term. For PP, it is slightly bullish. For methanol, conduct range - bound operations between 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and related products, operate the 01 contract in the range of 3000 - 3100. For live pigs, the market is in a weakly volatile pattern. For corn, be cautious about short - selling. For palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, observe whether the main contract of palm oil can stabilize above 9500. For sugar, pay attention to the pressure level around 5700 - 5750. For cotton, wait and see unilaterally. For eggs, reduce previous short positions and control positions. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, pay attention to the support at 10700. For soda ash, wait and see [2]. Special and New - Energy Commodities - For glass, wait and see and pay attention to the sentiment of the spot market during the peak season. For rubber, it is in a high - level oscillation due to positive macro - sentiment. For industrial silicon, it is strongly volatile, with the main price fluctuation range expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, the market may price in the probability of the Fed restarting interest rate cuts ahead of the September FOMC meeting. Volatility may increase after the Fed's decision [2]. - The technology sector has regained strength in the stock index futures market, with funds rotating among sectors. If volatility continues to decline, a long straddle options strategy can be considered [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield has initially stabilized around 1.8%. The central bank's bond - buying expectations have increased, and the bond futures market has first declined and then risen. Traders are advised to wait and see and focus on the capital, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term [2]. - Pre - Fed decision, the loose expectation has caused the US dollar index to fall to its lowest point this year. Gold and silver prices have fluctuated. After the decision, silver volatility may rise and then fall [2]. - The main container shipping index (European line) has shown weak and volatile performance, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. Iron ore, coking coal, and coke prices are expected to be strong, supported by factors such as increased shipments, rising pig iron production, and replenishment demand [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, seasonal maintenance, and macro - environment. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, the prices of products such as corn, soybeans, and livestock are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonal factors, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided [2]. - In the special and new energy product sectors, the prices of products such as glass, rubber, and industrial silicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment and cost, and different trading stances are recommended [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The technology sector has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors. If volatility declines, a long straddle options strategy can be tried [2]. Treasury Futures - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield has stabilized around 1.8%. The central bank's bond - buying expectations have increased. Traders are advised to wait and see and focus on short - term market changes [2]. Precious Metals - Pre - Fed decision, the US dollar index has fallen, and gold and silver prices have fluctuated. Silver has high elasticity above $42, but volatility may rise and then fall after the decision. Different options strategies are recommended for gold and silver [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The main index has shown weak and volatile performance, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [2]. Black Metals - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced. Coking coal, iron ore, and coke prices are expected to be strong. Specific ranges for long - buying and spread - trading strategies are provided [2]. Energy and Chemical - Different products have different supply - demand situations. For example, PX and PTA are expected to have different short - term supply - demand conditions. Various trading strategies such as waiting and seeing, range - trading, and spread - trading are recommended for each product [2]. Agricultural Products - The prices of products such as corn, soybeans, and livestock are affected by supply, demand, and seasonal factors. Different trading suggestions are provided for each product, such as waiting and seeing, range - trading, and position - adjustment [2]. Special and New Energy Products - Products such as glass, rubber, and industrial silicon are affected by market sentiment and cost. Different stances such as waiting and seeing and range - trading are recommended [2].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Merchants Futures has organized a simulation competition involving over 50 industry chain enterprises to enhance risk management skills and promote its integrated hedging management platform "Baozhi Fang" [1] Group 1: Hedging Basics - Hedging is defined as simultaneously buying (or selling) a commodity while selling (or buying) an equal quantity of futures to offset the profit and loss from price fluctuations [1] - Participating enterprises are submitting hedging plans and starting trading, but some companies find hedging more complex than expected [1] Group 2: Risk Exposure and Hedging Ratio - Understanding risk exposure and determining the hedging ratio are the first steps in creating a hedging plan [2] - Key questions include available funds for hedging, whether to use futures or options, and how to ensure compliance throughout the process [2] Group 3: Operational Risk Management - The hedging operation involves collaboration across departments, and any oversight in permission settings can lead to operational risks [3] - A case is highlighted where a trader adjusted futures positions without proper communication, leading to potential compliance risks [3][4] Group 4: Adjusting to Market Changes - Hedging plans are not static; unexpected market events can necessitate strategy adjustments [5] - A case study illustrates how a pig farming enterprise adapted its strategy in response to a local outbreak of swine fever, using data analysis to guide decisions [5] Group 5: Evaluating Hedging Success - The success of hedging is not solely based on profits or losses in the futures market but on achieving stable operations [6] - A cotton trading enterprise learned that despite a loss in the futures market, overall savings in procurement indicated that the hedging goal was met [6] Group 6: Comprehensive Understanding of Hedging - The simulation competition has demonstrated that hedging is a complex system requiring precise calculations, collaboration, and dynamic optimization [7] - The "Baozhi Fang" platform is helping enterprises better understand and manage the intricacies of hedging, reinforcing risk management as a cornerstone for navigating price cycles in the real economy [7]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products of Guotai Junan Futures on September 17, 2025, covering multiple agricultural products such as palm oil, soybean oil, and corn [1]. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Supported by U.S. soybean oil and macro - level factors [2]. - Soybean oil: U.S. soybeans continued to rise, and the outcome of China - U.S. negotiations should be monitored [2]. - Soybean meal: Due to optimistic trade sentiment, it is in a low - level oscillation [2]. - Soybean No.1: In oscillation [2]. - Corn: Operating in an oscillatory manner [2]. - Sugar: With a weak basis [2]. - Cotton: The market is focused on the listing of new cotton [2]. - Eggs: The peak season for spot sales is ending, and inventory remains high [2]. - Pigs: Policy expectations have materialized, but the weakness of the spot market is difficult to change [2]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,482 yuan/ton with a 0.64% increase, and the night - session was 9,524 yuan/ton with a 0.44% increase; soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,418 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase, and the night - session was 8,452 yuan/ton with a 0.40% increase [5]. - Spot: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,400 yuan/ton with an 80 - yuan increase; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,750 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [5]. - Basis and Spread: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 82 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 1,064 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macro and Industry News** - Kenanga Research predicted that edible oil prices, including palm oil, would remain firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply lagging behind demand [6]. - Anec expected Brazil's soybean exports in September to reach 753 million tons and soybean meal exports to be 219 million tons [7]. - Abiove maintained Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast at 170.3 million tons, and adjusted some production and export forecasts for soybean products [7]. - **Trend Intensity** - Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities were both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: DCE Soybean No.1 2511's daily - session closing price was 3,924 yuan/ton with a 0.46% decrease; DCE Soybean Meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 3,041 yuan/ton with a 0.33% decrease [12]. - Spot: In Shandong, soybean meal prices were between 3,020 - 3,040 yuan/ton, with some price adjustments compared to the previous day [12]. - Industry Data: The trading volume of soybean meal was 13.38 million tons per day, and the inventory was 110.85 million tons per week [12]. - **Macro and Industry News** - On September 16, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to optimistic sentiment about China - U.S. trade negotiations and uncertainty about U.S. soybean production [12]. - **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensities of soybean meal and soybean No.1 were both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: C2511's daily - session closing price was 2,166 yuan/ton with a 0.55% decrease, and the night - session was 2,169 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase [16]. - Spot: The price at Jinzhou's平仓 was 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [16]. - Spread: The basis of the main 11 - contract was 134 yuan/ton [16]. - **Macro and Industry News** - Northern corn collection and port prices remained stable, and prices in different regions showed different trends [17]. - **Trend Intensity** - The corn trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [18]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: The main futures price was 5,547 yuan/ton with a 2 - yuan decrease [19]. - Spot: The mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. - Basis and Spread: The mainstream spot basis was 393 yuan/ton with a 2 - yuan increase; the 15 - spread was 23 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. - **Macro and Industry News** - India's monsoon precipitation increased again; Brazil's sugar exports decreased; Conab lowered the forecast of Brazil's 25/26 sugar production [19]. - In the domestic market, production, consumption, and import forecasts for different seasons were provided, and there were expectations of a decrease in sucrose yield and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [20]. - In the international market, ISO predicted a global sugar supply shortage in the 25/26 and 24/25 seasons [21]. - **Trend Intensity** - The sugar trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [22]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 13,895 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase, and the night - session was 13,940 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase [23]. - Spot: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,162 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase [23]. - Spread: The CF1 - 5 spread was 35 yuan/ton, unchanged [23]. - **Macro and Industry News** - The domestic cotton spot market was quiet, waiting for new cotton to be listed; the cotton textile market was lackluster, with slow - moving prices [24]. - ICE cotton futures rose by over 1%, following the overall strength of the commodity market, and the market was watching the Fed's interest - rate decision [24]. - **Trend Intensity** - The cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [27]. Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Egg 2510's closing price was 3,090 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.99% decrease; Egg 2601's closing price was 3,378 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.03% increase [29]. - Spot: The price of eggs in Liaoning was 3.60 yuan/jin, up from the previous day [29]. - Spread: The Egg 10 - 1 spread was - 288 yuan, down from the previous day [29]. - **Trend Intensity** - The egg trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [29]. Pigs - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Pig 2511's price was 13,275 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan increase; Pig 2601's price was 13,745 yuan/ton with a 55 - yuan increase [32]. - Spot: The price of pigs in Henan was 13,230 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan decrease [32]. - Spread: The Pig 2511 basis was - 45 yuan/ton with a 120 - yuan decrease; the Pig 11 - 1 spread was - 470 yuan/ton with a 35 - yuan decrease [32]. - **Market Logic** - The supply in September was large, and the market pressure was increasing. The spot price was expected to decline further. Attention should be paid to the downward trend of the central price in March and May. The short - term LH2511 contract had a support level of 12,500 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 13,500 yuan/ton [34]. - **Trend Intensity** - The pig trend intensity was - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [33]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: PK510's closing price was 7,816 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase; PK511's closing price was 7,796 yuan/ton with a 0.57% increase [36]. - Spot: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Henan Baisha common peanuts was 8,100 yuan/ton with a 160 - yuan decrease [36]. - Spread: The basis of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 384 yuan/ton; the 10 - 11 inter - period spread was 20 yuan/ton [36]. - **Spot Market Focus** - In different regions, new peanuts were gradually being listed, with small trading volumes and generally stable prices [37]. - **Trend Intensity** - The peanut trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [38].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, with expectations of a Fed rate cut. Gold is bullish in the medium - term but may experience a short - term pullback after hitting new highs. Silver follows gold, and it is recommended to take profits in the domestic market after it breaks through the 10,000 - yuan mark [1]. - The aluminum market is expected to rise due to enhanced rate - cut expectations and pre - National Day stocking demand. Alumina is in a supply - demand surplus, and its rebound space is limited. Zinc requires observation. Lead is recommended to be bought at dips. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to trade in a range, and polysilicon also presents a 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [1][2][3]. - For the black industry, steel supply and demand are seasonally weak with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to take profits on long positions in steel. Iron ore should be observed. For coking coal, close long positions in the 2605 contract [4][5]. - In the agricultural products market, short - term trends of soybean meal are affected by Sino - US negotiations, and medium - term trends depend on tariff policies. Corn futures are expected to decline. For sugar, go short in the futures market and sell call options. Cotton can be bought at dips. Logs should be observed. Palm oil is bullish in the medium - term. Eggs are expected to strengthen in the short - term. For pork, consider reverse spread strategies [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical sector, LLDPE and PP are expected to trade sideways in the short - term and become more bearish in the medium - to long - term. PVC can be shorted after a rebound. Glass and soda ash are expected to improve seasonally. Crude oil should be shorted at highs. Styrene is expected to trade sideways in the short - term and become more bearish in the long - term. Caustic soda can be bought [8][9][10]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Precious metal prices continued to strengthen, with the London gold price reaching $3,700 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Milan was confirmed as a Fed governor, and the US retail sales in August increased for three consecutive months. Gold ETF funds in China continued to flow in, and the inventories of gold and silver in various regions showed different changes [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish on gold in the medium - term but expect a short - term pullback. Take profits on silver after it breaks through 10,000 yuan in the domestic market [1]. Basic Metals Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.21% to 20,975 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and downstream consumption continued to recover [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish on aluminum due to rate - cut expectations and pre - National Day stocking demand [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 1.50% to 2,979 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants had high operating capacity, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The rebound of alumina prices is limited due to supply - demand surplus [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc 2510 contract decreased by 0.25% to 22,255 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was abundant with some disturbances, and consumption was "not in the peak season". Inventories continued to accumulate [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe [2][3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead 2510 contract decreased by 0.61% to 17,055 yuan per ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply tightened regionally, and consumption was expected to rise with pre - National Day stocking [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at dips [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 11 - contract closed at 8,815 yuan per ton, up 1.31% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and both social and warehouse inventories started to accumulate slightly. Demand was at a relatively high level this year [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade in the 8,200 - 9,200 range and observe [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 11 - contract closed at 53,670 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was stable, and inventories started to accumulate. Demand from the photovoltaic industry was pessimistic in Q3 [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade in the 52,000 - 57,000 range and consider 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunities [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract of rebar closed at 3,151 yuan per ton, down 24 yuan [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Building material inventories increased, and the supply - demand of building materials was neutral to weak, while that of plates was stable [4][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Take profits on long positions [4][5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 799.5 yuan per ton, down 12 yuan [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Australian and Brazilian shipments increased, and arrivals decreased. Iron ore supply and demand were neutral to strong [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,233.5 yuan per ton, down 5.5 yuan [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron - making output increased, and the overall inventory of coking coal decreased. Futures were over - valued [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close long positions in the 2605 contract [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose on expectations of improved US soybean exports [6]. - **Fundamentals**: US soybeans had a slight reduction in production, and South American soybeans were expected to increase. Demand was structurally differentiated [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trends are affected by Sino - US negotiations, and medium - term trends depend on tariff policies [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The 2511 contract of corn traded in a narrow range, with spot prices rising in the Northeast and falling in the North [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Imported grain auctions increased supply, and new - crop corn was expected to increase production with lower costs [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to decline [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,544 yuan per ton, down 0.2% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's sugar production was high, and the growth of sugarcane in different regions in China showed different situations [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: US cotton futures rose, and Zhengzhou cotton futures trended upwards [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton boll - opening rate was behind last year, and the domestic retail sales of clothing increased [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at dips in the 13,800 - 14,500 range [7]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract of logs closed at 806.5 yuan per cubic meter, up 0.25% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Port inventories decreased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction was not prominent [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe [7]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market was closed [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was in a seasonal increase period, and exports increased [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish in the medium - term, with the core driver being seasonal production cuts [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The 2511 contract of eggs corrected, and some spot prices rose [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Demand increased seasonally, but supply was abundant [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expected to strengthen in the short - term [7]. Pork - **Market Performance**: The 2511 contract of pork corrected, and spot prices fell [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Consumption increased, but supply was also abundant. Policy support was expected to reduce future supply pressure [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider reverse spread strategies [7]. Energy and Chemical LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract of LLDPE rose slightly, with a weakening basis [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic supply increased, and imports were expected to decrease slightly. Demand improved seasonally [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade sideways in the short - term and go short in the medium - to long - term [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 contract of PVC rose 1% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand were in a weak balance, and inventories reached a new high [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short after a rebound [8]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG01 contract of glass rose 3.5% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was large, and inventories decreased seasonally. Downstream demand improved slightly [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long [8]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PP rebounded slightly, with a weakening basis [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand improved seasonally [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade sideways in the short - term and go short in the medium - to long - term [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose for three consecutive days due to supply concerns [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weakening [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short at highs [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract of styrene rebounded slightly, with a weakening basis [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories were at normal - to - high levels, and downstream demand improved seasonally [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade sideways in the short - term and go short in the long - term [9]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA01 contract of soda ash rose 3.1% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was increasing, and demand from the photovoltaic and glass industries improved seasonally [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe [9]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The SH01 contract of caustic soda rose 0.5% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was stable, and non - aluminum demand improved seasonally [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long [10].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 16, 2025, the A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.45%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.68%. The trading volume in the two markets reached 2341.4 billion yuan, an increase of 64 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Various futures varieties had different trends on September 16, including the performance of coke, coking coal, sugar, rubber, soybean meal, etc., and their future trends are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies [3][4][5]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 16, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3861.87, up 0.04%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13063.97, up 0.45%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3087.04, up 0.68%. The trading volume in the two markets reached 2341.4 billion yuan, an increase of 64 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index fluctuated and sorted on September 16, closing at 4523.34, down 9.72 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 16, the coke weighted index was strong, closing at 1748.0, up 70.6 from the previous day. The coking coal weighted index remained strong, closing at 1248.5 yuan, up 68.0 from the previous day [3][4]. - For coke, the second - round price cut has been implemented, but due to the concession of raw coal, the profitability of coking plants is acceptable, and the supply of coke has increased. For coking coal, most coal mines in Shanxi that stopped or reduced production due to the parade have resumed production, and the supply from the origin has increased [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the rise of US sugar and the downward adjustment of spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated widely on September 16, rising first and then falling, and closing slightly higher. At night, it fluctuated slightly lower [5]. - Brazil is expected to increase its sugarcane planting area in 2025, but the sugarcane output is expected to decrease slightly compared with the previous year [5]. Rubber - Thailand's continuous rainfall has caused supply concerns, and Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher on September 16. At night, it fluctuated and sorted [6]. - From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 16, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher. The US soybean crop rating decreased compared with the previous week, and the harvest progress was faster than the five - year average [6]. - Domestically, on September 16, the soybean meal M2601 main contract closed at 3041 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the price maintains a volatile and sorted trend [6][8]. Live Pigs - On September 16, the LH2511 main contract closed at 13160 yuan/ton, down 0.87%. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has increased, and the short - term demand is difficult to form a strong support. The futures price of live pigs may maintain a low - level volatile trend [8]. Palm Oil - On September 16, palm oil futures continued to rebound slightly within the range, and the main contract P2601 closed with a small阳线 with an upper shadow line, up 0.64% from the previous day [9]. - Malaysian research institution Kenanga Research said that the prices of edible oils, including palm oil, are expected to be firm in 2025 and 2026 [9]. Copper - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The domestic copper concentrate supply and demand are expected to be tight, which will potentially support the price. However, the high copper price restricts the downstream demand [10]. Cotton - On the night of September 16, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13940 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 130 lots compared with the previous day. Some early - maturing varieties in Xinjiang have started to be picked [10]. Logs - On September 16, the 2511 contract of logs opened at 798.5, with the lowest at 794.5, the highest at 813, and closed at 806.5, with a decrease of 796 lots in positions. Pay attention to the support at 800 and the pressure at 813 [10]. Iron Ore - On September 16, the iron ore 2601 main contract fluctuated and closed up, up 0.82%, closing at 803.5 yuan. The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [11]. Asphalt - On September 16, the asphalt 2511 main contract fluctuated and closed up, up 0.38%, closing at 3411 yuan. The current demand is not strong in the peak season, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [12]. Steel - On September 16, rb2601 closed at 3166 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3402 yuan/ton. The market is mainly based on supply - demand structure, but there may be policy - driven fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the callback risk [12]. Alumina - On September 16, ao2601 closed at 2979 yuan/ton. The supply - demand contradiction cannot be resolved, and the continuous expansion of supply suppresses the price. The fundamentals are weak [13]. Aluminum - On September 16, al2510 closed at 20975 yuan/ton. The demand has improved, but the inventory is still in a state of accumulation, and whether the de - stocking inflection point can appear in mid - September needs further observation [13].

态势。下游订单略有增加，纺企开机仍维持低位，关注传统消费旺季备货情况。操作上，建议短期暂且观 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13895 | 10 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19950 | 50 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -34949 | -4544 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -172 | 142 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 492631 | -5664 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 20282 | -858 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 4759 | -140 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 89 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 15300 | 51 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, | 20775 | 20 | | | /吨) 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][6][9] Core Viewpoints - The global cotton inventory has reached a four - year low, and the supply - demand situation of US cotton in the new year is expected to improve, but the short - term upward space of US cotton is restricted. The domestic cotton price has strong short - term support, but there is also pressure during the new flower listing period. In the long run, the cotton price is expected to rise after the seasonal pressure [2] - For sugar, the international raw sugar price is under pressure but has a certain support, and the domestic sugar price is driven downward in the short term but the downward space is limited [5] - Regarding pulp, there is still supply pressure, and the demand side is weak. In the short term, the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [8][9] Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,885 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,167 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,249 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [1] - According to the USDA's September report, in the 2025/26 and 2024/25 cotton seasons, the global cotton output, consumption, and trade volume increased, and the ending inventory decreased [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton supply - demand data in the new year has improved, but the US cotton export sales progress is slow. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, the supply is tight at the end of the year, and the demand has improved marginally, but the new - year production increase expectation is strong, and the hedging pressure during the new flower listing period is large [2] Strategy - If the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" fails or is not good enough, the Zhengzhou cotton price may fall. In the long run, the cotton price is expected to rise after the seasonal pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,549 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.16%) from the previous day. The spot prices in Nanning, Guangxi and Kunming, Yunnan remained unchanged [4] - The USDA predicts that the US sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 9.47 million short tons, and the inventory/consumption ratio is estimated to be 16.2%. Indonesia has suspended issuing raw sugar import licenses for the rest of 2025 [4] Market Analysis - The international raw sugar price is under pressure due to increased production but has support from the ethanol price. The domestic sugar price has been following the international market down due to poor sales and concerns about syrup policies [5] Strategy - The short - term domestic sugar price is driven downward, but the downward space is limited. It is advisable to wait for a rebound while the price oscillates at the bottom [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of pulp 2511 contract yesterday was 5,056 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton (+1.32%) from the previous day. The spot prices of different pulp types in Shandong had different changes [6] - The import wood pulp spot market had mixed price trends, with different price adjustment ranges for different pulp types [7] Market Analysis - On the supply side, although there are overseas pulp mill production cut news, the supply pattern has not changed significantly, and the domestic pulp import volume is expected to decline. The port inventory is high, so the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the global pulp consumption is weak, and the domestic demand is also lackluster [8] Strategy - The pulp market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties of Baocheng Futures on September 16, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][39][50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The report shows the basis and spread data of power coal from September 9 to September 15, 2025. The basis on September 15 was - 115.4 yuan/ton, while the spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Data on the basis, ratio, and other indicators of energy commodities such as fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from September 9 to September 15, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on September 15 was 99.61 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1408 [7]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - The basis, spread, and cross - variety spread data of chemical commodities such as rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber on September 15 was - 995 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE - PVC spread on September 15 was 2304 yuan/ton [9][10]. 3.3 Black Metals - Cross - period and cross - variety spread data of black metals including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given. For example, the 5 - 1 cross - period spread of rebar was 65.0 yuan/ton, and the screw/ore ratio on September 15 was 3.92 [20]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 9 to September 15, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of copper on September 15 was 10 yuan/ton [28]. 3.4.2 London Market - Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of LME non - ferrous metals on September 15, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was (61.93), and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.02 [34]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - The basis, cross - period, and cross - variety spread data of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, and rapeseed meal are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans on September 15 was 121 yuan/ton, and the soybean/corn ratio on September 15 was 1.81 [39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - The basis and cross - period spread data of stock index futures including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 9 to September 15, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on September 15 was 5.26, and the next - month - to - current - month spread was - 9.2 [51].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On September 15th, the three major A-share indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26% to close at 3860.50 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.63% to 13005.77 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.52% to 3066.18 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 2277.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 243.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4533.06, up 11.06 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 15th, the coke weighted index trended stronger in a fluctuating manner, closing at 1700.9, up 75.5. The coking coal weighted index was strong, closing at 1196.6 yuan, up 53.1. Coke is facing a second - round price cut. The current iron - water output is 2405500 tons, an increase of 117100 tons. The coke inventory is moderately high, and the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 35 yuan/ton. For coking coal, the price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal is 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the futures market. The market has fully priced in three Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Fed will announce interest rate decisions on September 17th, October 29th, and December 10th. The supply at the mine end has recovered, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has declined for 4 consecutive weeks, and the cumulative import growth rate has declined for 3 consecutive months. The supply has decreased, the inventory has decreased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory is at a moderate level [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Supported by factors such as the rebound of US sugar on Friday and the stable spot price, the short - covering of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract led to an upward trend on Monday. The USDA's September supply - demand report shows that the estimated total sugar production in the US for the 2025/26 crushing season is 9.47 million short tons, and the sugar inventory/consumption ratio is estimated to be 16.2% [2]. Rubber - Boosted by factors such as the increase in Southeast Asian spot prices and the stabilization of crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber trended higher on Monday. The night - session fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. In July 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production was 35884 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5% and a month - on - month increase of 36.7%. As of the end of July 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber inventory increased by 15.5% to 171061 tons [3]. Palm Oil - On September 15th, the palm oil futures fluctuated upward within the range. The main contract P2601 closed with a doji - like candlestick. The highest price was 9442, the lowest was 9318, and the closing price was 9422, up 1.36% from the previous day. From September 1 - 15th, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 742648 tons, a 2.6% increase from the same period last month. As of September 12th, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 641500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22200 tons, or 3.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 128000 tons, or 24.92% [3]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 15th, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. The seasonal harvest pressure is emerging. As of the week ending September 14th, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 63%, and the harvest rate is 5%, in line with market expectations. As of September 11th, the soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season has reached 0.12% of the expected total area, and drought in the central - western region may disrupt the sowing work. Domestically, on September 15th, the main contract of soybean meal M2601 closed at 3042 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2%. Currently, the import volume of soybeans is large, the supply is sufficient, the factory's operating rate is high, the crushing volume remains at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory continues to rise. However, due to the lack of a trade agreement between China and the US, there is still an expectation of tightened long - term soybean imports. Overall, the market is mixed with long and short factors, and the soybean meal price will maintain a volatile trend [4]. Live Pigs - On September 15th, the main contract LH2511 closed at 13745 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4%. In September, the production capacity is in the concentrated realization stage, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has increased, the group pig enterprises have a high slaughter plan, and the daily average slaughter has increased month - on - month. Although it is approaching the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day consumption peak season, the recovery of terminal consumption is slow, and it is difficult to form strong support in the short term. The live - pig futures price may maintain a low - level volatile trend [5]. Shanghai Copper - The market believes that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 100%, and the market bets on three rate cuts this year, which keeps the US Treasury yield at a low level and supports the Shanghai copper price. Fundamentally, the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has stopped production due to wet - material blockage, and the resumption time is uncertain, which intensifies the global shortage of copper concentrates and is beneficial to copper prices. However, in the week ending September 12th, the social inventory of Shanghai copper increased by 14.91% to 94054 tons, reaching a two - and - a - half - month high, weakening the support of low inventory on prices. Currently, at a high copper price, downstream buyers are mainly on the sidelines, the rigid demand procurement is limited, the release of peak - season demand is weak, and the willingness to chase the price is limited. The upward pressure on copper prices persists. Technically, Shanghai copper is expected to run strongly in the short term but may face certain pressure at high levels [5]. Iron Ore - On September 15th, the main contract of iron ore 2601 fluctuated and closed lower, with a decline of 0.31%, closing at 796 yuan. Last week, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased week - on - week, and the arrival volume also decreased slightly. The supply has tightened, the iron - water output has returned to a high level, and steel mills still have the demand for replenishing stocks. The supply has decreased while the demand has increased, and the short - term iron ore price is in a volatile trend [6]. Asphalt - On September 15th, the main contract of asphalt 2511 fluctuated and closed lower, with a decline of 0.29%, closing at 3393 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased week - on - week, the asphalt manufacturers' shipment volume decreased, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The inventory level remained flat week - on - week. Due to weather factors, the current demand shows the characteristic of a peak season without a peak, and the fundamental driving force is still limited. The short - term asphalt price will mainly operate in a volatile manner [6]. Cotton - On Monday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13910 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 118 lots compared with the previous trading day. The purchase price of hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang is firm, which boosts market sentiment to a certain extent [6]. Logs - On September 15th, the log futures opened at 798.5, with a minimum of 794.5, a maximum of 806.5, and closed at 804.5, with an increase of 709 lots in positions. The futures price rebounded and touched the 60 - day moving average of 334. Pay attention to the support at the 800 mark and the pressure at 810. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu is 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spot trading is weak. Pay attention to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on prices [6][7]. Steel - On September 15th, rb2601 closed at 3136 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3370 yuan/ton. From January to August, the industrial added value continued to grow rapidly, and the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries showed good momentum. However, the investment growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing have slowed down, and the real estate market is still in a downward cycle, resulting in a slow improvement in steel demand during the "Golden September". The National Bureau of Statistics said that in the next stage, it will strengthen the governance of over - capacity in key industries, advocate against disorderly competition among enterprises, and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. On Monday, the "double - coke" futures rose sharply, pushing up the cost and driving up the steel price. Considering the general balance of supply and demand in the steel market, the continuous rise of steel prices is questionable, and it may run slightly stronger in a volatile manner in the short term [8]. Alumina - On September 15th, ao2601 closed at 2935 yuan/ton. Although there is no new production capacity coming on - stream in September, due to the stable output of new production capacity added in the first half of the year and the continuous resumption of production of some enterprises' overhauled production lines, the spot supply will be further relaxed, increasing the downward pressure on market prices. In terms of demand, the operation of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants is relatively stable, the long - term order demand for alumina is relatively stable, but the spot bulk order transactions may weaken. With the increase in the delivery - warehouse capacity and the market - circulating spot, the downstream aluminum plants' willingness to bargain for lower prices when purchasing has increased [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 15th, al2510 closed at 21020 yuan/ton. The improvement of the global economic outlook and the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts are important macro - factors supporting the rise of aluminum prices. The US dollar index has weakened periodically, which is beneficial to commodities priced in US dollars. The macro - environment continues to send positive signals, enhancing the market's optimistic sentiment towards the aluminum demand outlook. Domestic and foreign investors and traders have increased their purchases, driving up the aluminum price. As the National Day holiday approaches, the recovery of demand and the increase in the proportion of direct delivery of ingots to terminals will trigger a turning point in inventory. The domestic aluminum market is expected to start a destocking cycle, but whether this turning point is stable still needs further verification from subsequent data [9].