[日期Table_Industry] : shzqdatemark [Table_Summary] 主要观点 2025年12月17日 | [Table_Author] 分析师: | 陈彦利 | | --- | --- | | Tel: | 021-53686170 | | E-mail: | chenyanli@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0870517070002 | [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《CPI 持续回升，PPI 偏降》 ——2025 年 12 月 11 日 《进出口回升，顺差再回高位》 ——2025 年 12 月 10 日 《投资仍负，消费偏稳》 ——2025 年 11 月 19 日 生产偏稳，需求回落 ——2025 年 11 月宏观数据点评 生产偏稳，需求回落 作为经济成效综合体现的工业生产增速本月略有回落，稳中偏降。三 大门类产业除采矿业外均有所回落。11月各行业生产除其他运输设 备、汽车、黑色金属冶炼之外均有所回升，汽车生产下降幅度较突 出。 固定投资增速进一步负增。跌幅进一步扩大。分项来看，制造业投资 增长1.9%，增速下降0.8个百分点，基础设 ...

2025 年 12 月 17 日 2025 年 11 月经济增长数据点评 服务消费增速加快 证券分析师 | 钟正生 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520090001 | | | ZHONGZHENGSHENG93 4@pingan.com.cn | | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn | | 常艺馨 | 投资咨询资格编号 | S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 事项： 国家统计局发布 2025 年 11 月主要增长数据。 平安观点： 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 点 评 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 2025 年 11 月中国经济增长平稳，生产表现快于需求。结构上，高技术制造 业、服务消费是其中亮点，高质量发展指引下产业升级态势持续。中央政治 局会议指出，"经济社会发展主要目标将顺利实现"，因此宏观政策将更多着 眼于 2026 年。尽管消费和投资增速放缓，但中央经济工作会议部署"优化 '两新'政策实施"，明确指出"推动投资止 ...

证券研究报告—宏观研究报告 撰写日期：2025 年 12 月 16 日 结构延续分化，内需有待加力 ——11 月经济数据点评 2025 年 11 月规模以上工业增加值同比增长 4.8%，较上月微降 0.1 个 百分点。从三大门类来看，采矿业录得 6.3%，高于制造业的 4.6%和水电燃 气的 4.3%，反映工业生产对传统资源型行业的依赖仍未完全缓解。而制造 业增速低于工业总体水平，或反映传统制造业复苏动能趋缓，新兴产业尚 未形成足够强的替代支撑。分行业领域来看，略显分化。新能源汽车高增速 延续强势，叠加有色金属、乙烯等产品的稳步增长，印证了高端制造、新材 料等战略性新兴产业的成长韧性。但传统高耗能产品呈现较大拖累，既与 房地产行业需求疲软相关，也体现了"双碳"目标下高耗能行业的产能优 化。需求端的约束是当前工业经济面临的核心挑战。11 月工业产品销售率 降至 96.5%，反映生产扩张与终端需求之间或存在一定错位。结合制造业 PMI 仍处于收缩区间，尽管新订单指数较上月回升 0.4 个百分点，但尚未突 破临界点，表明内需恢复仍显缓慢。此外，中小型企业 11 月 PMI 虽分别回 升，但大型企业 PMI 有所回落 ...

网上：1-11 月线上零售额累计同比+9.1%。2025 年 1-11 月，全国 网上零售额 144,582 亿元，同比+9.1%，较 2024 年同期+1.7pcts， 占社会消费品零售总额的比重为 31.70%。其中，实物商品网上累 计零售额为 118,193 亿元，同比增长 5.70%，在实物商品网上零 售额中，吃类/穿类/用类商品分别增长 14.90%/3.50%/4.40%。 证券研究报告|商贸零售 [Table_Title] 11 月社零总额同比+1.3%，只有中西药品类 增速环比有所上升 [Table_ReportType] ——2025 年 11 月社零数据跟踪报告[Table_ReportDate] [投资要点： Table_Summary] 总体：2025 年 11 月社零同比+1.3%，增速同比、环比明显下降。 2025 年 11 月我国社会消费品零售总额 43,898 亿元，同比增长 1.3%，较去年同期增速下降 1.7pcts，较 10 月增速环比下降 1.6pcts。11 月我国 CPI 同比+0.7%，较 10 月的+0.2%增加 0.5pcts。 ①商品和餐饮零售增速环比均下降 ...

Core Viewpoint - Da An Gene (002030.SZ) announced a framework agreement for the acquisition of its controlling stake by Guangzhou Pharmaceutical Group, which will result in Guangzhou Pharmaceutical controlling 26.63% of Da An Gene's shares after the transaction is completed [1][2]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The acquisition involves a dual approach of "indirect equity transfer + direct agreement transfer," where Guangzhou Pharmaceutical will acquire 100% of Guangzhou Guangyong Technology Development Co., Ltd. from Guangzhou Financial Holdings Group, indirectly controlling 233 million shares of Da An Gene [1]. - Guangzhou Pharmaceutical will also directly acquire 70.17 million shares each from Guangzhou Financial Holdings Group and Guangzhou Health Industry Investment Co., Ltd., totaling 374 million shares, which represents 26.63% of Da An Gene's total share capital [1][2]. - The total consideration for the agreement is approximately 908 million yuan, calculated at 6.47 yuan per share [2]. Group 2: Control and Governance - Despite the transfer of controlling rights, Da An Gene emphasized that there will be no change in its controlling shareholder or actual controller, with Guangzhou Guangyong Technology remaining the controlling shareholder and the actual controller being the Guangzhou Municipal People's Government [2]. - Both Guangzhou Financial Holdings Group and Guangzhou Pharmaceutical Group are enterprises controlled by the Guangzhou Municipal People's Government, indicating that this transaction is part of a strategic integration within the Guangzhou state-owned assets system [2]. Group 3: Future Steps - The signed framework agreement is a preliminary document, and formal transaction documents will be signed once the conditions outlined in the framework agreement are met [2]. - The asset evaluation report related to the equity transfer must complete the state-owned assets filing process, and the transaction is subject to operator concentration review and compliance confirmation by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before share transfer procedures can be processed [2].

Economic Overview - In October, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 2.9%, slightly above the expected 2.7% but down from the previous 3%[1] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.7%, worse than the expected -0.7% and previous -0.5%[1] - Real estate development investment fell by 14.7% year-on-year, slightly worse than the expected -14.5% and previous -13.9%[1] Production and Investment - Industrial value-added growth dropped to 4.9% in October, down from 6.5% in September, reflecting a decline of 1.6 percentage points[5] - Fixed asset investment saw a significant decline of 3.6 percentage points to -10.7% year-on-year in October[3] - The decline in investment was influenced by land acquisition costs, which fell by 18.8 percentage points to -14.3%[3] Real Estate Market - The sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, worsening from a previous decline of 5.5%[1] - The average down payment ratio for home purchases increased to 68.4%, indicating a trend of reduced leverage among buyers[24] - The year-on-year decline in housing prices across 70 cities continued, with sales volume down 15.1% and sales value down 17.1%[24] Consumer Behavior - The decline in retail sales was primarily driven by weak commodity retail, with a notable drop in "old-for-new" product sales such as automobiles and home appliances[2] - Service consumption showed resilience, with restaurant income improving by 2.9 percentage points to 3.8% year-on-year[12] - E-commerce promotions helped mitigate some declines, particularly in categories like communication equipment and textiles[12] Future Outlook - Short-term economic disruptions are expected to weaken but remain manageable, with policies in place to support growth[4] - Potential risks include overdrawn consumer demand and inter-company debt settlements affecting investment[4] - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in special bonds and policy financial tools is anticipated to bolster economic resilience in the fourth quarter[4]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Kaikai Industrial (600272), primarily operates in the fields of traditional Chinese medicine distribution, Chinese medicine services, and clothing wholesale and retail, with a focus on health services and branded apparel [1] Business Segments - The pharmaceutical segment mainly involves wholesale and retail of both traditional and Western medicines, medical devices, reagents, consumables, and diagnostic services [1] - The clothing segment focuses on the wholesale and retail of the "Kaikai" brand shirts, woolen sweaters, and other apparel, as well as customized workwear group purchases [1] - Currently, the company's main business operations are located in the Jing'an District of Shanghai, with no business activities in Taiwan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue growth but a significant decline in net profit due to previous year's compensation payments [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 999.7 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.58% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.02 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 89.19% [1] - The company's net profit excluding non-recurring items was 9.01 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.58% [1] Business Development - The company expanded its retail network, increasing the number of retail stores to 208, with over 10 new pet specialty stores added [2] - The first pet-friendly pharmacy in Shanghai was recognized by the Shanghai Commercial Association [2] - The company added 14 new medical insurance stores, raising the proportion of direct medical insurance stores to 75.30%, an increase of 7.64 percentage points from the previous year [2] - Online business grew by 38.5%, with O2O business increasing by 46.1% [2] - Cross-border sales of health products through its subsidiary in Hong Kong saw a 12.4% increase [2] Supply Chain Optimization - The company optimized procurement costs and strengthened non-pharmaceutical supply chain construction, with self-owned brand sales increasing by 67.4% [3] - The company established a private equity investment fund focusing on functional food sectors [3] Industry Trends - The retail pharmacy industry is experiencing an accelerated closure trend, with 39,228 stores expected to close in 2024, a closure rate of approximately 5.76% [3] - The industry is shifting from expansion to enhancing profitability through refined operations [4]

Core Insights - In the first half of this year, the online retail sales in Shanghe County reached 3.42 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 38.6%, surpassing the city's growth rate by 30.9 percentage points, ranking first in the city [1] - Live-streaming e-commerce contributed 1.54 billion yuan to the online retail sales, accounting for over one-sixth of the city's total, with a year-on-year growth of 177.8%, exceeding the city's growth rate by 158 percentage points, also ranking first in the city [1] - The number of e-commerce enterprises, stores, and employees in Shanghe County has steadily increased, with 577 e-commerce enterprises, 4,695 e-commerce stores, and 5,692 direct e-commerce employees currently [1] Sales Breakdown - The physical goods online retail sales amounted to 3.36 billion yuan, representing 98.1% of Shanghe County's online retail sales, with a year-on-year growth of 41.3% [1] - Non-physical goods online retail sales reached 63.91 million yuan [1] Transaction Model Analysis - B2C online retail sales were 3.23 billion yuan, accounting for 94.3% of Shanghe County's online retail sales, with a year-on-year growth of 41.4% [1] - C2C online retail sales were 194.67 million yuan, representing 5.7% of Shanghe County's online retail sales, with a year-on-year growth of 4.7% [1] Industry Composition - In terms of industry, the top three categories for physical goods online retail sales in Shanghe County were grain and oil food, Chinese and Western medicines, and sports and entertainment products, accounting for 68.3%, 7.3%, and 5.6% respectively [2] - For non-physical goods, the leading categories were online dining, virtual products, and online entertainment [2]

Economic Performance - In the first half of 2025, Baiyun District's GDP reached 153.28 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, ranking first in the city [1] - The primary industry added value was 1.53 billion, growing by 4.8%; the secondary industry added value was 29.44 billion, growing by 3.9%; and the tertiary industry added value was 122.31 billion, growing by 5.7% [1] Agricultural Sector - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery in Baiyun District was 3.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [1] - Notably, the vegetable and edible fungus sector saw a production of 226,000 tons and an output value of 1.77 billion, both increasing by 6.6% year-on-year [1] Industrial Sector - The total industrial output value in the district grew by 2.9% year-on-year, with traditional industries like furniture manufacturing and electrical machinery showing significant growth of 8.1% and 19.3%, respectively [1] - New production capacities in industrial robots, solar cells, and medical instruments saw remarkable increases of 91.6%, 72.4%, and 33% in production [1] Aviation Industry - Baiyun Airport's passenger and cargo throughput reached 4.09 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [2] - The air cargo turnover increased by 7.0% year-on-year, indicating a steady growth trend in the aviation sector [2] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Baiyun District amounted to 58.54 billion, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% [2] - Significant growth was observed in essential goods, with daily necessities, hardware, and pharmaceuticals increasing by 33.1%, 10.0%, and 41.8%, respectively [2] Service Industry - From January to May, the revenue of the profitable service industry in Baiyun District grew by 19.0% year-on-year, ranking second in the city [2] - The advertising and application software development sectors showed exceptional growth, with revenues increasing by 90.3% and 44.3%, respectively [2] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Baiyun District exceeded 64 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [3] - Investment in industrial projects grew significantly, reaching 24.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [3] - Industrial investment completed 8.82 billion, growing by 25.7%, while manufacturing investment reached 6.23 billion, increasing by 11.8% [3]