今天分享的是：西南证券：新经济、新动能行业洞察系列（二）：新消费演进中的价格与产业洞察 报告共计：26页 本报告为西南证券新经济新动能行业洞察系列第二篇，聚焦新消费演进对宏观经济、价格体系及产业发展的多维影响，指出新消费以信 息技术为驱动、以品质化个性化为导向，是内需大循环的战略支柱，其战略地位随政策持续加码不断提升。 新消费成为宏观经济结构升级的核心动力，2023年以来最终消费支出对GDP贡献率稳居首位，2025年我国消费对GDP拉动率稳定在3%左 右，显著高于发达经济体。服务消费增长动能突出，2025年服务零售额增速超商品零售额1.7个百分点，商品零售中通讯器材、文化办公 用品等新消费品类增速领跑，旅游、观影等服务消费呈现节日爆发式增长特征。同时，新消费推动传统职业迭代，2025年新增多个消费 升级相关职业与工种，灵活就业成为就业增收重要途径，且灵活就业群体消费倾向更高，形成就业与消费的良性互动。 新消费推动CPI权重重构与价格结构性修复，2021-2025年居住、交通通信CPI权重显著提升，食品烟酒、生活用品及服务权重下降，反映 居民消费从基础刚需向品质升级转变。CPI品类价格呈现分化修复态势，衣着、医 ...

Economic Overview - The GDP growth for Q4 2025 was 4.5%, matching market expectations, but down from 4.8% in the previous quarter[1] - December's retail sales growth was 0.9%, below the expected 1.5% and down from 1.3% in November[1] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 3.8%, worse than the expected -2.4% and previous -2.6%[1] Consumption Trends - Retail sales below the limit weakened, with a decline of 0.5 percentage points to 3.1%[2] - Service retail sales improved, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points to 5.5%[2] - The decline in retail sales was primarily driven by essential goods consumption, which had been front-loaded earlier in the year[2] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment fell by 1.2 percentage points to -13.2% year-on-year in December[3] - Manufacturing and service sector investments continued to decline, while infrastructure investment showed signs of improvement due to a decrease in special refinancing debt issuance[3] - Real estate investment dropped significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 17.2%[3] Production Dynamics - Industrial value-added growth rose to 5.2% in December, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[3] - New energy sectors like pharmaceuticals and specialized equipment saw significant production increases, while traditional sectors like automotive production faced declines[3] Summary of Economic Changes - The economic structure is increasingly differentiated, with traditional indicators showing weakness while positive changes are emerging in service consumption and investment recovery[3] - The shift in consumption policies from goods to services is reflected in the contrasting performance of retail sales metrics[3]

Core Insights - In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45,136 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [1] - By 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods are projected to reach 501,202 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7% compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Overview - The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles in December amounted to 39,654 billion yuan, with a growth of 1.7% year-on-year [1] - For 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles are expected to be 451,413 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.4% [1] Group 2: Urban vs Rural Consumption - In December, urban retail sales were 38,429 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, while rural retail sales reached 6,707 billion yuan, growing by 1.7% [2] - By 2025, urban retail sales are projected to be 432,972 billion yuan, a growth of 3.6%, and rural retail sales are expected to reach 68,230 billion yuan, increasing by 4.1% [2] Group 3: Consumption Types - In December, the retail sales of goods were 39,398 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, while catering revenue was 5,738 billion yuan, growing by 2.2% [2] - For 2025, the retail sales of goods are anticipated to be 443,220 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.8%, and catering revenue is expected to reach 57,982 billion yuan, increasing by 3.2% [2] Group 4: Retail Formats - In 2025, retail sales from convenience stores, supermarkets, department stores, and specialty stores are projected to grow by 5.5%, 4.3%, 0.1%, and 2.6% respectively, while brand specialty stores are expected to decline by 0.6% [5] - The national online retail sales are projected to reach 159,722 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth of 8.6%, and physical goods online retail sales are expected to be 130,923 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% [5] Group 5: Detailed Retail Data - In December, the retail sales of consumer goods included various categories, with notable growth in categories such as cosmetics (8.8%), sports and entertainment products (9.0%), and communication equipment (20.9%) [7] - Conversely, categories like home appliances (-18.7%), petroleum and products (-11.0%), and automobiles (-5.0%) experienced declines [7]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the technology growth and certain cyclical industries in January, indicating a potential for strong performance in these sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the spring market rally is likely to continue into January, driven by favorable policies, external events, and liquidity factors. Historical data shows that when the spring rally starts early, the A-share market tends to perform strongly in January [5][8]. - It emphasizes that the main drivers for January's performance will be proactive policies and external events, with liquidity playing a crucial role. The report notes that a loose liquidity environment can lead to market gains, while tightening can have the opposite effect [5][10]. - The report anticipates that January will see a continuation of weak economic recovery trends, with potential improvements in corporate earnings driven by rising prices in certain cyclical sectors and ongoing demand in technology [17][23]. Summary by Sections Section 1: January Spring Market Continuation - Historical analysis indicates that the A-share market has shown strong performance in January during years when the spring rally starts early, with 6 out of 8 instances since 2010 showing gains [5][7]. - Key factors influencing January's performance include proactive policies, external events, and liquidity conditions, with a focus on the impact of monetary policy and external risks [5][6]. Section 2: Industry Allocation for January - The report suggests that technology growth and certain cyclical industries are likely to outperform in January, supported by upward industry trends and thematic catalysts such as AI and commercial aerospace [8][23]. - Current sectors with low PEG ratios include electric power equipment and media, indicating potential for growth [23]. - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on technology growth, cyclical sectors, and consumer industries, with specific mentions of robotics, military, new energy, electronics, and pharmaceuticals [23][24].

Economic Overview - The national economy in November 2025 showed characteristics of "stable production, differentiated consumption, and pressured investment" with industrial production recovering to normal levels after holiday disruptions[2] - Emerging industries continue to be the main support for production and investment, although industrial growth has slightly slowed down, indicating significant industry differentiation[6] Production Insights - The industrial added value in November increased by 4.8% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while month-on-month growth improved by 0.44 percentage points[8] - The production-sales rate for industrial enterprises was 96.5%, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.1 percentage points, with the export delivery value decline narrowing from 2.1% to 0.1%[8] Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth in November was 1.3% year-on-year, marking a continuous decline for six months, with large-scale retail sales dropping by 2.0%[20] - The promotional season had limited impact on consumer spending, with online retail growth decreasing from 8.1% to 5.4%[22] Investment Analysis - Fixed asset investment from January to November decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with November showing a month-on-month decline of 12.0%[26] - Manufacturing, broad infrastructure, and real estate investments saw declines of -4.5%, -11.9%, and -30.3% respectively, indicating a challenging investment environment[26] Risk Factors - There is an increasing uncertainty in external trade and a potential unexpected decline in domestic demand, which could further pressure economic growth[37]

Economic Performance - In November, the industrial production growth rate was 4.8%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[11] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) fell by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, with a deeper decline compared to the previous period[11] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November reached 43,898 billion yuan, growing by 1.3%, which is a decrease of approximately 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[11] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment grew by 1.9%, with a decline of 0.8 percentage points in growth rate[18] - Infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 1 percentage point[18] - Real estate development investment from January to November was 78,591 billion yuan, down 15.9%, with the decline widening by 1.2 percentage points[19] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales excluding automobiles grew by 2.5%, indicating that the decline in automobile consumption negatively impacted overall consumer performance[25] - The growth rate of retail sales in urban areas was 1.0%, while rural areas saw a growth of 2.8%[21] - Consumption of furniture, building materials, and jewelry saw significant declines, with automobile consumption experiencing a deepening drop[22] Policy Outlook - The government aims to maintain stable economic growth while enhancing quality and efficiency, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply[28] - Policies will include increasing central budget investment and implementing measures to stabilize investment and consumption[28] Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China-U.S. policies[29]

Economic Growth Overview - In November 2025, China's industrial added value grew by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The service production index increased by 4.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to October[3] - Retail sales of consumer goods rose by 1.3% year-on-year, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[3] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 8.4%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate by 3.6 percentage points[3] - The export delivery value showed a marginal recovery, with a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, improving by 2.0 percentage points from October[3] - The service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, with a 0.1 percentage point increase compared to the previous month[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, a drop of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Infrastructure and manufacturing investments maintained expansion, with cumulative year-on-year growth rates of 0.1% and 1.9%, respectively[3] - Equipment purchase investment rose by 12.2% year-on-year, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall investment growth[3] Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts[3]

Production - In November 2025, the industrial added value of large-scale industries grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The mining industry recorded a growth of 6.3%, outperforming manufacturing at 4.6% and water, electricity, and gas at 4.3%, indicating ongoing reliance on traditional resource sectors[12] - The sales rate of industrial products fell to 96.5%, reflecting a misalignment between production expansion and end demand[13] Consumption - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November 2025 increased by 1.3% year-on-year, marking a decline of 1.6 percentage points from October, the lowest monthly growth since December 2022[2] - Service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, indicating a shift towards service-oriented consumption[16] - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.7%, accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales, highlighting the impact of digital consumption trends[17] Investment - From January to November 2025, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6%, with a widening decline of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous period[5] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative decline of 15.9%, with housing sales area and sales amount both decreasing by 7.8% and 11.1% respectively, continuing a negative growth trend for 43 months[25] - Manufacturing investment fell by 0.8 percentage points to 1.9%, with a monthly decline of 4.5%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector[24] Economic Outlook - The economic data for November indicates that insufficient effective demand remains the primary contradiction in the economy, opening up further space for policy support[27] - Future policies to boost domestic demand are expected to focus on enhancing employment, increasing residents' income, and improving social security[28]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [44]. Core Insights - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, reflecting a significant decline in growth rates both year-on-year and month-on-month [10][11]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in October, indicating rising inflationary pressures [10]. - Retail sales growth for goods and dining both saw a month-on-month decline, with goods retailing growing by 1.0% year-on-year and dining income increasing by 3.2% year-on-year [11][12]. - Online retail sales from January to November 2025 totaled 144,582 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, which accounted for 31.7% of total retail sales [34]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November 2025 were 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from the previous year and a month-on-month decline of 1.6 percentage points [10][11]. Segment Analysis - In November, among 16 categories of goods, 7 categories (including daily necessities, tobacco and alcohol, home appliances, furniture, petroleum products, automobiles, and building materials) experienced negative growth. Only the Chinese and Western medicine category saw an increase in growth rate [17][18]. - The cultural and office supplies category and communication equipment category showed strong growth, both exceeding 11% [17]. Online Retail - Cumulative online retail sales from January to November reached 144,582 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, which is an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [34][36]. - The physical goods online retail sales amounted to 118,193 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [34]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as food and beverage, social services, and retail, particularly highlighting opportunities in the liquor industry, consumer goods, and tourism sectors due to expected policy support for domestic consumption [38][39][42].

Core Viewpoint - Da An Gene (002030.SZ) announced a framework agreement for the acquisition of its controlling stake by Guangzhou Pharmaceutical Group, which will result in Guangzhou Pharmaceutical controlling 26.63% of Da An Gene's shares after the transaction is completed [1][2]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The acquisition involves a dual approach of "indirect equity transfer + direct agreement transfer," where Guangzhou Pharmaceutical will acquire 100% of Guangzhou Guangyong Technology Development Co., Ltd. from Guangzhou Financial Holdings Group, indirectly controlling 233 million shares of Da An Gene [1]. - Guangzhou Pharmaceutical will also directly acquire 70.17 million shares each from Guangzhou Financial Holdings Group and Guangzhou Health Industry Investment Co., Ltd., totaling 374 million shares, which represents 26.63% of Da An Gene's total share capital [1][2]. - The total consideration for the agreement is approximately 908 million yuan, calculated at 6.47 yuan per share [2]. Group 2: Control and Governance - Despite the transfer of controlling rights, Da An Gene emphasized that there will be no change in its controlling shareholder or actual controller, with Guangzhou Guangyong Technology remaining the controlling shareholder and the actual controller being the Guangzhou Municipal People's Government [2]. - Both Guangzhou Financial Holdings Group and Guangzhou Pharmaceutical Group are enterprises controlled by the Guangzhou Municipal People's Government, indicating that this transaction is part of a strategic integration within the Guangzhou state-owned assets system [2]. Group 3: Future Steps - The signed framework agreement is a preliminary document, and formal transaction documents will be signed once the conditions outlined in the framework agreement are met [2]. - The asset evaluation report related to the equity transfer must complete the state-owned assets filing process, and the transaction is subject to operator concentration review and compliance confirmation by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before share transfer procedures can be processed [2].