文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 韩港（微信 HGK1366） 2&3 ）从就业 & 工资来看 ，结合量（以就业增速衡量）价（以工资增速变化衡量）两个维度， 2024 年， 建筑业或是"缩量保价"，即农民工就业人数减少、但工资增速提升。制造业是"量价齐升"，农民工就业人数 增长、同时工资增速提升，后续吸纳就业或仍有空间。交运仓储、批发零售、住宿餐饮则是"量升价落"， 后续吸纳就业或面临量与价的抉择。 4 ）从消费结构看 ，此前农民工消费结构更侧重商品消费，但从近期情况看，其教育、住房、娱乐等服务 消费或在快速增长，消费结构有望向服务倾斜。 5 ）从经济体感看， 我们计算农民工视角下的 GDP 增速。 2020-2022 年该增速持续高于官方 GDP 增速， 对应该时期消费 K 型复苏。 2023-2024 年农民工视角下的 GDP 增速持续高于官方 GDP 增速，对应该时期 消费下沉。而从 2025 年一季度看，农民工视角下的 GDP 与官方 GDP 之间的差距已基本弥合，意味着此 前的消费 K 型复苏、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a comprehensive set of financial policies introduced by Chinese authorities to stabilize the market and manage expectations, focusing on monetary policy adjustments and regulatory measures aimed at supporting economic recovery and growth [2][3][16]. Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China announced ten monetary policy measures, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates, and a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools [2][17]. - Specific measures include increasing the quota for technology innovation and technical transformation relending by 300 billion yuan, establishing a 500 billion yuan relending facility for service consumption and elderly care, and optimizing the use of financial tools to support capital markets [2][17]. Financial Regulatory Measures - The National Financial Regulatory Administration introduced eight policy measures, such as accelerating the development of financing systems compatible with new real estate models and expanding the scope of long-term investment trials for insurance funds [3][18]. - Additional measures include revising merger loan management regulations and enhancing support for small and micro enterprises [3][18]. Capital Market Support - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized three policy directions: consolidating market recovery, focusing on new productive forces, and promoting long-term capital inflow into the market [3][19]. - The commission also released an action plan to enhance the quality of public funds, which includes optimizing fee structures and binding fund companies' interests with those of investors [4][22]. International Relations and Economic Cooperation - Recent diplomatic engagements include discussions between Chinese leaders and European and Russian counterparts, focusing on deepening strategic communication and cooperation in various sectors [9][10]. - The government is also working on enhancing trade and economic dialogues with the U.S. and France, indicating a proactive approach to international economic relations [14]. Policy Implementation and Future Outlook - The article outlines the government's commitment to implementing these policies effectively, with a focus on ensuring liquidity in the market and supporting economic stability [16][19]. - The ongoing adjustments in monetary and regulatory policies are expected to create a more favorable environment for economic growth and investment [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of tariffs on U.S. inventory levels and how long these inventories can buffer against rising import costs and consumer prices [1]. Group 1: U.S. Inventory Analysis - As of February, the overall inventory-to-sales ratio in the U.S. manufacturing and trade sectors is approximately 1.5 months, with manufacturers at 1.9 months, wholesalers at 1.3 months, and retailers at 1.4 months, all at relatively low percentiles since the pandemic [4][8]. - If assuming that inventories from manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers are solely for domestic retail sales, the overall inventory could cover about 4.2 months of sales [5][9]. - The low inventory-to-sales ratios suggest limited buffering capacity against supply-demand imbalances, which could lead to upward pressure on inflation [5][9]. Group 2: Industry-Specific Inventory Insights - In the retail sector, categories such as furniture, appliances, and consumer electronics have a notably low inventory-to-sales ratio of just 1 month, placing them in the 6.5% percentile since the pandemic [13]. - Conversely, the automotive and building materials sectors have higher ratios, exceeding 2 months, indicating a more stable inventory position [13]. - In the manufacturing and wholesale sectors, categories like machinery and textiles show higher inventory-to-sales ratios, while electrical equipment remains low at around 1 month [6][14]. Group 3: PMI and Inventory Trends - The ISM manufacturing PMI inventory index fell to 50.8% in April from 53.4% in March, indicating a decrease in inventory accumulation as companies reduce stockpiling ahead of tariff implementations [17]. - The customer inventory index remains low at 46.2%, suggesting concerns about the sustainability of overall manufacturing inventory levels [17][18]. - Among 18 manufacturing sectors, 5 reported increased inventory levels in April, while 8 sectors, including textiles and transportation equipment, saw declines, reflecting a mixed inventory landscape [18].

Group 1 - The overall economic sentiment is mixed, with some indicators showing recovery while others indicate a decline [1][2][11] - Public transportation usage, including subway and domestic flights, has seen a slight increase, with subway ridership averaging 80.98 million daily in early May, up 2.5% year-on-year [1][5] - Land premium rates have rebounded, reaching 12.37% in early May compared to 9.63% in April [1][5] Group 2 - U.S. imports have shown a significant decline, with a 20.1% decrease in import value in the week of May 1, particularly from China, which saw a 27.9% drop [2][12] - Domestic prices for bulk commodities are weak, with prices for coal, steel, and cement continuing to fall [2][22] - The issuance of new special bonds has exceeded 1 trillion, indicating a significant increase in local government financing plans [2][28] Group 3 - Interest rates have decreased following recent monetary policy adjustments, with DR001 at 1.4908% as of May 9, down 29.45 basis points from April 30 [3][31] - The bond market is experiencing a net issuance of government bonds, with a notable amount of special bonds planned for the second quarter [28][29] Group 4 - Commodity prices are showing divergent trends, with international prices for oil, gold, and copper rising, while domestic prices for coal and construction materials are declining [22][27] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has decreased by 8.6%, indicating a weakening in shipping rates [24][27]

Core Viewpoints - In April, China's exports showed unexpected resilience with a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, significantly exceeding Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 1.9% and slightly above previous forecasts [2][4][42] - The rebound in imports, with a year-on-year change of -0.2%, also surpassed market expectations of -5.9%, indicating a recovery in trade dynamics [2][4][65] Group 1: Export Resilience and Risks - The strong export performance in April is attributed to increased exports to non-U.S. regions, which offset the decline in direct exports to the U.S. [6][12] - The analysis distinguishes between two types of risks: beta (β) risk, which relates to U.S. tariff impacts on global demand, and alpha (α) risk, which pertains to the relative tariff rates imposed on China compared to other countries [4][7][18] - If β risk does not materialize, the focus should be on tracking the re-routing of exports to mitigate tariff impacts, as historical data suggests a significant portion of exports can be redirected [5][18] Group 2: Import Dynamics - The increase in imports in April was driven by processing trade, particularly a surge in integrated circuit imports, which contributed significantly to the overall import growth [10][38] - The impact of retaliatory tariffs may not have fully manifested in April's data, as goods shipped before the tariff implementation date were exempt from additional duties [10][68] - The overall import growth of -0.2% in April indicates a narrowing decline compared to March's -4.3%, suggesting a potential stabilization in trade flows [2][65] Group 3: Tracking U.S. Import Demand - Monitoring U.S. import demand is crucial, as any decline could signal broader global trade challenges, with historical data indicating that a drop in U.S. import growth could lead to proportional declines in global trade [4][20] - Key factors influencing U.S. import demand include tariff policies, price transmission effects, and consumer purchasing power, particularly the impact of inflation on U.S. households [20][24] - Projections indicate that U.S. import growth may decline significantly in the coming years, with estimates suggesting a drop to -9.6% by 2025 under current tariff scenarios [24][27] Group 4: Export Performance by Region and Product - Exports to the U.S. have significantly decreased, while exports to ASEAN countries have increased, reflecting the shifting dynamics in trade relationships due to tariffs [51][68] - The performance of consumer goods has been weaker, particularly for products facing high tariffs, while intermediate goods that are exempt from tariffs have shown stronger export growth [57][59] - The overall export landscape indicates a complex interplay of tariff impacts and regional trade adjustments, necessitating ongoing analysis of trade flows and market conditions [4][51]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生 （18482259975） 事 项 4月，CPI同比下降0.1%，预期下降0.15%，前值下降0.1%；核心CPI同比上涨0.5%，前值上涨0.5%。PPI同比下降2.7%，预期下 降2.8%，前值下降2.5% 。 报告摘要 一、4月CPI的结构性特征 本月CPI略高于我们的预期，或因没考虑到金价上涨的影响 。CPI同比和环比均较我们的预期高0.1个百分点，预期差在核心CPI。 据统计局解读，金饰品价格上涨10.1%，拉动CPI环比约0.06个百分点，据此推算，金饰品在CPI中的权重占比大约0.6%，对本月 核心CPI环比的拉动约0.1个百分点。 本月CPI项目环比上涨或好于季节性的：1） 受需求回暖及假日因素共同影响，机票、交通工具租赁费、宾馆住宿和旅游等出行服 务价格好于季节性。 2） 在供给减少等因素影响，食品价格上涨0.2%，好于季节性。比较明显的是，牛肉价格上涨3.9%，创2019 年10月以来最高（过去两年因供给扩张牛肉价格大幅下跌），在需求淡季下鲜菜和猪肉价格跌幅偏小。 3） 房租环比 ...

5 月 7 日华创中期策略会上，华创证券研究所副所长、首席宏观分析师张瑜发表题为《 莫听穿林空雷声，持伞干湿 看雨情》的主题演讲，以下为演讲实录。 【核心观点和结论】 很高兴又到了策略会的时间，又能和各位熟悉的老朋友见面。 题目就是我的观点，近一个多月以来，关税的 雷声每天都在变， 短期如果听雷声去做投资，会非常被动 ；那么我们 投资者 究竟应该看什么、听什么， 怎么在雷声中握好手里的伞？ 我大概用15分钟时间，做一个简短汇报。 我们大的思考逻辑，分三步： 第一步， 先不考虑关税，中美经济目前运行的核心主线是什么？先把各自的地基看清楚；第二步，考虑关税，会怎么 影响核心主线？第三步，稍微做一点主观推演 ， 谈一下主观上一些没法做定量、稍微带点定性的判断看法。 具体的思考逻辑，我们分 三条线： 第一条线看 美国，核心主线是居民超额财富够不够吃下关税的通胀 ？ 我们的判断是， 风险溢价一旦拉破，再结合着 当下美国历史极高的股债共向性，非常容易触发流动性危机。 第二条线看 中国，核心主线是 居民存款再释放的风偏修复能不能持续？以及关税是否会打断这个修复？ 我们会用三 个互动模型讨论三个问题 ： 什么样的经济变化会触 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the report emphasizes the need for a shift in monetary policy focus from merely supporting high prices to managing low prices and fostering high-quality development, while addressing the challenges of excessive competition in certain sectors [4][10]. Group 1: Price Changes - The central bank identifies a persistent imbalance between supply and demand in the real economy, with major price indicators operating at low levels, leading to increased attention on price stability [4][10]. - Demand recovery is acknowledged, with consumption and investment growth accelerating since the fourth quarter of last year, but overall demand remains weak due to global growth slowdown, structural economic transitions, and consumer sentiment [4][10]. - On the supply side, excessive competition is noted in certain industries, characterized by inefficient supply, homogeneous competition in emerging sectors, and prolonged inventory clearance cycles in real estate [4][10][11]. - The relationship between money supply and prices is complex, with the central bank suggesting that merely increasing money supply may exacerbate supply-demand imbalances, thus hindering price recovery [4][11]. Group 2: Policy Framework - The report indicates a gradual shift in the role of the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) from a policy interest rate tool to a liquidity provision instrument, with a focus on the 7-day reverse repurchase rate as the primary policy rate [5][10]. - Structural monetary policy tools are being explored to enhance low-cost funding support for key consumption sectors, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate consumer spending [5][13]. - The central bank highlights the sustainability of government debt expansion in China, given the substantial state-owned assets and low government debt levels, which is crucial for social welfare and economic transformation [5][16]. Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The central bank warns of interest rate risks associated with government bonds, particularly long-term bonds, which are sensitive to market rate changes and can amplify investor gains or losses [6][17]. - The report points out the need for improved pricing efficiency and risk management capabilities in the bond market, with a significant portion of trading volume concentrated among smaller financial institutions [6][17]. - Tax policies affecting the bond market are discussed, noting that tax exemptions on government bond interest can influence market pricing and yield volatility [6][17].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：殷雯卿（19945767933） 核心观点 美国经济中的内需部分未来的下行和上行压力都在哪里？下行压力主要在于①关税对需求侧的整体冲 击，甚至会损害全球经济；②财富效应损耗 + 可消费现金流走弱对消费的冲击；③潜在金融市场对基 本面的"传染"。上行压力主要在私人投资①美联储降息周期中地产有望企稳；②科技巨头资本开支仍 在提升。二者叠加来看，经济增长存在持续偏弱的压力，经济是否陷入"危机性衰退"需要进一步跟踪 关税落地情况与美联储货币政策走向。 报告摘要 1、关税是经济下行最大的不确定性源头 美国进口需求对全球贸易增速至关重要，关税对美国内需的冲击或是当前全球经济最大的β风险。 一 方面，美国在国际贸易中的占比较高：美国占全球进口（剔除欧盟内部）的16%（2023年数据），美 国进口最终消费品占全球最终消费品进口总额的约1/3，美国贸易逆差占全球贸易逆差总额的5-6成。 另一方面，美国进口与全球进口正相关→进而影响中国出口。如果关税对美国进口形成较大冲击，或 将传导至全球贸易需求的收缩。 考虑到过去 30 年 ...