Core Viewpoint - The article maintains a positive outlook on copper prices, expecting them to rise due to tight supply and demand dynamics despite short-term pressures from increased inventory and reduced demand in certain sectors [4][5]. Supply and Demand - As of December 26, 2025, the SHFE copper closing price was 98,720 RMB/ton, up 5.95% from December 19, 2025, while the LME copper closing price was 12,133 USD/ton, up 3.37% [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need for enhanced management and optimization in industries such as copper smelting, indicating a focus on supply-side reforms [4]. - Despite a decrease in cable enterprise operating rates, which may suppress demand, the overall supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight into 2026, supporting a bullish outlook on copper prices [4]. Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 16.8% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 4.3% [5]. - As of December 26, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 775,000 tons, up 5.9% from the previous week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory across major exchanges totaled 716,000 tons, up 1.4% week-on-week as of December 19, 2025 [5]. Supply Metrics - In October 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and down 12.1% year-on-year [6]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper (精废价差) was 4,218 RMB/ton as of December 26, 2025, down 464 RMB/ton from December 19, 2025 [6]. Smelting and Production - China's electrolytic copper production in November 2025 was 1.1031 million tons, up 1.1% month-on-month and up 9.8% year-on-year [7]. - The TC spot price was -44.90 USD/ton as of December 26, 2025, down 0.9 USD/ton from December 19, 2025, marking a low not seen since September 2007 [7]. - In November, copper imports were 271,000 tons, down 3.9% month-on-month and down 24.7% year-on-year, while exports were 143,000 tons, up 116.8% month-on-month and up 1,128.1% year-on-year [7]. Demand Insights - Cable manufacturing accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with operating rates at 60.75% as of December 25, 2025, down 5.96 percentage points from the previous week [8]. - Air conditioning production, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to increase by 11% year-on-year for January 2026 [8]. - The operating rate for brass rods, which account for about 4.2% of domestic copper demand, was 50.2% in November, up 6.7 percentage points month-on-month but down 4.7 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Futures Market - The SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 2% week-on-week, with a total of 252,000 contracts as of December 26, 2025, placing the position at the 80th percentile since 1995 [8]. - As of December 16, 2025, the non-commercial net long position on COMEX was 65,000 contracts, up 3.8% week-on-week, also at the 89th percentile since 1990 [8].

Overall Viewpoint - The AIDC power/storage sector is experiencing a positive outlook, with North American AI chain focusing on light modules, liquid cooling, AIDC power, and AI storage. Recent developments in liquid cooling have opened up new opportunities for AIDC power overseas orders, and the 26H2 HVDC technology solution is expected to see increased volume. Collaboration related to SST is also anticipated to yield results. The overseas energy storage market remains robust, with the logic of electricity shortages in the U.S. unchanged, and a temporary easing of U.S.-China relations. The market is currently less sensitive to BBB and 301-related legislation, warranting continued attention to AIDC power and overseas storage sectors [4]. Group 1: AIDC Power/Storage - The North American AI chain is prioritizing light modules, liquid cooling, AIDC power, and AI storage, with liquid cooling trends enhancing the potential for AIDC power overseas orders [4]. - The 26H2 HVDC technology solution is expected to facilitate increased production, while SST-related collaborations are projected to gradually materialize [4]. - The overseas energy storage market remains favorable, with the U.S. electricity shortage logic still intact, and a temporary thaw in U.S.-China relations [4]. Group 2: Lithium Battery - Recent environmental assessments for the Jiangxia lithium mine and Tianqi Lithium's decision to not use SMM pricing have influenced the market, with several lithium iron phosphate companies announcing production cuts to strengthen pricing negotiations [4]. - Changes in the supply side of lithium carbonate and the "anti-involution" logic are enhancing price support expectations, leading to a recovery in the lithium battery sector during the spring market [4]. - The investment hierarchy for lithium battery materials is as follows: lithium carbonate > lithium hexafluorophosphate > aluminum foil > separator > copper foil > anode [4]. Group 3: Hydrogen Ammonia and Wind Power - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, hydrogen ammonia is viewed as a significant direction for new energy consumption and non-electric applications, supported by future industry prospects and the EU carbon tariff in 2026 [5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the potential for coordinated, large-scale, and advanced construction of hydrogen ammonia projects [5]. - Although Goldwind Technology's stock has surged due to commercial aerospace trends, market expectations for hydrogen ammonia remain relatively low, indicating a need for continued focus [5].

Group 1: Primary Market - In the week from December 22 to December 26, 2025, a total of 267 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 427.70 billion, representing a week-on-week increase of 15.42% [4] - Among the issued bonds, industrial bonds accounted for 117 issues with a scale of 219.26 billion, a week-on-week increase of 34.26%, making up 51.26% of the total issuance [4] - City investment bonds totaled 110 issues with a scale of 71.36 billion, a week-on-week decrease of 18.87%, representing 16.69% of the total issuance [4] - Financial bonds had 40 issues with a scale of 137.08 billion, a week-on-week increase of 14.92%, accounting for 32.05% of the total issuance [4] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 2.74 years, with industrial bonds averaging 2.36 years, city investment bonds 3.25 years, and financial bonds 2.35 years [4] - The overall average coupon rate for credit bonds was 2.26%, with industrial bonds at 2.12%, city investment bonds at 2.41%, and financial bonds at 2.23% [4] Group 2: Secondary Market - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1782.75 billion, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 28.47% [7] - The top three categories by trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium-term notes, with commercial bank bonds at 630.89 billion (up 38.88%), corporate bonds at 521.31 billion (up 15.93%), and medium-term notes at 347.64 billion (up 40.63%) [7] - In terms of credit spreads, the largest increase for AAA-rated industries was in pharmaceuticals, up 5.1 basis points, while the largest decrease was in real estate, down 1.3 basis points [6] - For AA+ rated industries, the largest increase was in household appliances, up 6.4 basis points, and the largest decrease was in textiles and apparel, down 9.8 basis points [6] - The AAA-rated credit spread increased the most in Gansu, up 8.7 basis points, while the largest decrease was in Jilin, down 2.9 basis points [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that Trump's housing reform is unlikely to boost the U.S. real estate market, which remains in a "weak supply and demand" state despite significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024-2025 [4][5]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The U.S. real estate market has not entered a recovery cycle due to limited reductions in mortgage rates, which remain above 6%, significantly higher than the average of 4.3% for existing mortgages [5]. - Demand is declining due to high home prices, elevated mortgage rates, and an affordability crisis, with new and existing home sales expected to be lower in 2025 compared to 2024 [4]. - Supply is constrained by a "lock-in effect" in the existing home market and a decrease in new home supply due to rising material tariffs and interest rate fluctuations, leading to sustained high home prices [4][5]. Group 2: Future Outlook - As the 2026 midterm elections approach, Trump's housing reform is anticipated to focus on lowering mortgage costs, activating the supply market, and further interest rate cuts [6][7]. - However, significant interest rate cuts may not effectively translate to lower mortgage rates due to legislative and judicial constraints, as well as tariff risks and construction cycle delays, suggesting a baseline expectation of a weak recovery in the U.S. real estate market by 2026 [7]. Group 3: Forward-Looking Indicators - To observe the U.S. real estate cycle, it is important to construct forward-looking variables, particularly the spread between current mortgage rates and existing mortgage rates [8]. - Historical data indicates that a spread of 90-100 basis points, corresponding to around 5% mortgage rates, could signal the start of a new real estate cycle, with a corresponding 10-year U.S. Treasury yield expected to be around 3.2%-3.3% [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth potential of the Gansu liquor market, which is nearing a market capacity of 10 billion yuan, with a shift in consumer preferences towards higher-priced products [4] - Gansu's liquor consumption is transitioning from a price range of under 100 yuan to 150-200 yuan, indicating an upgrade in consumer spending habits [4] - Local liquor companies dominate the market, with over 50% market share, and Jinhuijiu holds approximately 20% of the market, showing a continuous increase in its share [4][5] Group 2 - Jinhuijiu, located in Longnan, has a long-standing brand history and has been on a "second entrepreneurship" journey since 2018, achieving a revenue of 3.02 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 11% since its listing [5] - The company is optimizing its product structure, with a significant increase in the revenue share of products priced above 100 yuan, expected to reach 71% in 2024 [6] - Jinhuijiu's strategy focuses on national expansion while deepening its presence in the northwest, with solid channel foundations and brand recognition in the southeastern region of Gansu [6][7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the rapid growth of the brain-machine interface industry, driven by both policy and technology, indicating a potential market worth billions [3][4]. - It highlights the integration of medical and consumer sectors, suggesting that companies like Xiangyu Medical and Weisi Medical may benefit from the implementation of medical insurance payments and increasing rehabilitation demands [4]. - The report emphasizes the strong commercial viability and high technological barriers of invasive and semi-invasive technology leaders such as Xinwei Medical and Brain Tiger Technology [4]. Group 2 - The insurance sector is experiencing a shift towards equity investments, with a record 9.3% of stock assets among five listed insurance companies, the highest in nearly a decade [9]. - Projections for the insurance industry indicate potential stock scale increments of 1.7 trillion, 2.4 trillion, and 3.1 trillion yuan under pessimistic, neutral, and optimistic scenarios for 2025-2027 [9]. - The article suggests that the upward trend in the equity market will significantly enhance investment returns for insurance companies [9]. Group 3 - The report on the real estate market indicates a 15.1% year-on-year decline in residential land transaction area, while the average transaction price per square meter increased by 9.4% [18]. - It notes that first-tier cities experienced a 29.5% increase in average transaction price, reflecting regional disparities in the real estate market [18]. - Recommendations include companies like Poly Development and China Merchants Shekou, as well as property service firms such as China Resources Mixc Life and Greentown Service, which are expected to benefit from long-term growth [18]. Group 4 - The article on high-end manufacturing exports highlights improvements in November due to the fading high base effect and strong seasonal replenishment demand from overseas [27]. - It suggests that new trade agreements between China and the U.S. may lead to a marginal recovery in exports to the U.S., with companies like Quan Feng Holdings being potential beneficiaries [27]. - The report also points out rapid growth in exports to emerging markets in Africa and Latin America, recommending companies like Anhui Heli [27]. Group 5 - The analysis of ABN products indicates that they still hold a yield advantage over some ordinary credit bonds, despite a lack of significant premium compared to other asset-backed securities [15]. - In a market with scarce high-yield assets, ABN products are positioned as a viable option for enhancing returns, while their valuation volatility is generally lower than that of ordinary credit bonds [15]. - This characteristic provides a degree of resilience against overall industry shocks, aiding in the optimization of investment portfolio stability [15].

Market Overview - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs in China has shown a wave-like recovery, ending a five-week decline, with the CSI REITs closing at 783.86 and the CSI REITs Total Return Index at 1014.8, yielding returns of 1.39% and 1.56% respectively during the week of December 22-26, 2025 [4] - In comparison to other major asset classes, the return rates ranked from highest to lowest are: Gold > Oil > A-shares > Convertible Bonds > REITs > US Stocks > Pure Bonds [4] - Among different project types, both property and concession REITs saw price increases, with property REITs achieving a return of 2.22% and concession REITs 1.19% [4] - The largest increase in returns came from affordable housing REITs, with the top three asset types ranked by return being affordable housing, warehousing and logistics, and industrial park REITs [4] Trading Activity - The total trading volume for public REITs was 3.14 billion yuan, with the water infrastructure REITs leading in average daily turnover rate at 0.80% [5] - The top three REITs by trading volume were: Zhongjin Hubei Keti Guanggu REIT, Huaxia Anbo Warehousing REIT, and Yinhua Shaoxing Raw Water REIT [5] - The total net inflow for the week was 94.74 million yuan, indicating increased market trading enthusiasm compared to the previous week, with the top three net inflow categories being consumer infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, and warehousing and logistics REITs [5] Block Trading - The total amount of block trading reached 264.42 million yuan, showing an increase from the previous week, with the highest single-day block trading amount on December 26, 2025, at 149.19 million yuan [6] - The top three REITs by block trading volume were: Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT, CMB Fund Shekou Rental Housing REIT, and Southern Wanguo Data Center REIT [6] Primary Market - No new REIT products were listed during the week, but the project status of three existing REITs was updated [7]

Market Overview - The China convertible bond index increased by +1.64% during the week from December 22 to December 26, 2025, compared to +0.48% the previous week. The China All Index rose by +2.78%, up from -0.18% the prior week. Year-to-date, the convertible bond index has gained +18.98%, while the All Index has increased by +25.00% [6]. - By rating, the weekly performance of bonds was as follows: AAA-rated bonds +0.61%, AA+-rated +1.36%, AA-rated +2.52%, AA--rated +1.69%, and bonds rated AA- and below +1.98%, with AA-rated bonds showing the highest increase [6]. - In terms of bond size, large bonds (over 2 billion) rose by +1.06%, medium-large (1.5 to 2 billion) +0.62%, medium (1 to 1.5 billion) +1.05%, medium-small (0.5 to 1 billion) +2.15%, and small bonds (under 0.5 billion) +2.84%, with small bonds having the highest increase [6]. Price and Valuation Metrics - The average price of convertible bonds was 132.97 yuan, up from 130.35 yuan the previous week, with a percentile rank of 98.75% [8]. - The average conversion price was 102.08 yuan, an increase from 100.65 yuan, with a percentile rank of 89.75% [8]. - The average conversion premium rate was 32.34%, slightly down from 32.57% the previous week, with a percentile rank of 40.30% [8]. Convertible Bond Performance and Strategy - The convertible bond market continued to rise, although some individual bonds experienced significant volatility. Future trends may further diverge [9]. - It is recommended to assess bonds based on their terms and the performance of the underlying stocks, focusing on sectors with policy catalysts and high economic activity for new bond opportunities [9].

Core Viewpoint - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of market performance, highlighting the positive and negative returns of various factors and strategies within different stock pools during the specified week [4][5][8]. Group 1: Factor Performance - In the large-cap market, beta, size, and non-linear market capitalization factors yielded positive returns of 1.31%, 0.62%, and 0.58% respectively, while the leverage factor had a negative return of -0.13% [4]. - In the CSI 300 stock pool, the best-performing factors included the early morning return factor (2.16%), year-on-year net profit growth rate (1.75%), and quarterly ROA year-on-year (1.68%), while the worst performers were large net inflow (-1.71%), price-to-book ratio factor (-1.83%), and downside volatility ratio (-2.05%) [5]. - In the CSI 500 stock pool, the top factors were quarterly operating profit growth rate (1.16%), quarterly net profit growth rate (1.11%), and standardized unexpected earnings (1.08%), with the price-to-earnings ratio factor (-2.74%), total asset gross margin TTM (-2.92%), and price-to-book ratio factor (-2.95%) performing poorly [5]. Group 2: Industry Factor Performance - The net asset growth rate factor performed well in the comprehensive and oil & petrochemical industries, while the net profit growth rate factor excelled in the comprehensive industry [6]. - The earnings per share factor showed strong performance in the oil & petrochemical and real estate sectors, and the TTM operating profit factor was notable in the environmental protection industry [6]. - The 5-day momentum factor exhibited momentum effects in the oil & petrochemical and public utilities sectors, while showing reversal effects in the beauty care, leisure services, and food & beverage industries [6][7]. Group 3: Strategy Performance - The PB-ROE-50 combination achieved significant excess returns, with a 1.31% excess return in the CSI 800 stock pool and a 1.36% excess return in the overall market stock pool, while it recorded a -0.62% excess return in the CSI 500 stock pool [8]. - Public and private fund research selection strategies yielded positive excess returns, with public fund strategies achieving a 1.88% excess return relative to the CSI 800 and private fund strategies achieving a 2.14% excess return [9]. - The block trading combination experienced a decline in excess returns, with a -1.94% excess return relative to the CSI All Index [10]. - The targeted issuance combination also faced a decline, with a -1.79% excess return relative to the CSI All Index [11].

Group 1: Bond Custody Total and Structure - The total bond custody increased month-on-month, reaching 178.25 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025, with a net increase of 1.48 trillion yuan compared to the previous month [4] - By category, the custody of interest rate bonds, credit bonds, and financial bonds increased, while interbank certificates of deposit saw a decrease [4] - The custody of interest rate bonds was 123.94 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 1.46 trillion yuan; credit bonds reached 19.13 trillion yuan, increasing by 0.27 trillion yuan; and financial bonds totaled 12.80 trillion yuan, up by 0.10 trillion yuan [4] Group 2: Bond Holder Structure and Changes - Among major institutions in the bond market, only securities companies and foreign institutions saw a decrease in bond custody, while other institutions reported increases [5] - Policy banks, commercial banks, and non-legal entity products increased their holdings in interest rate bonds and credit bonds, while reducing interbank certificates of deposit [5] - The custody of government bonds continued to increase, with policy banks and commercial banks consistently adding to their holdings, while securities companies significantly reduced theirs [5] Group 3: Bond Market Leverage Observation - The balance of repurchase agreements decreased month-on-month, leading to a decline in the bond market leverage ratio [6] - As of the end of November 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase agreements was 11.05 trillion yuan, down by 360.125 billion yuan, with a leverage ratio of 106.61%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points month-on-month [6]