Group 1 - The core driver of the recent volatility in the US Treasury market is the US tax reduction bill and the weak demand for Japanese bonds, leading to significant increases in Treasury yields in May [2][7][69] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 37 basis points since April 30, with the term premium contributing 28 basis points to this increase, indicating heightened concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation [10][69] - The term premium for US Treasuries reached a new high of 0.9% by May 22, reflecting disturbances in fiscal, inflation, monetary, and trading factors [10][69] Group 2 - The "Beautiful America Act" has passed the House of Representatives, but its future in the Senate is uncertain due to the slim Republican majority, with potential modifications expected [3][29][70] - The Act is projected to significantly increase the US fiscal deficit, with estimates suggesting a 1.8 percentage point increase in the deficit rate by 2026, despite potential tariff revenues of approximately $2.5 trillion over ten years [3][40][70] - The Act primarily extends existing tax cuts, with about 80% of the measures being extensions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), which may have limited incremental economic impact [3][34][70] Group 3 - The relationship between the US fiscal deficit and Treasury yields remains stable, with a 1 percentage point increase in the deficit correlating to an approximate 78 basis point rise in the 10-year Treasury yield [4][47][70] - Short-term pressures on the Treasury market have eased, with positive net inflows into bond funds observed in May, indicating a temporary reduction in systemic pressure [49][70] - Long-term, Treasury yields are expected to remain elevated, influenced by potential unanticipated deficit expansions and ongoing trade policy uncertainties [60][70]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 大类资产&海外事件&数据：众议院通过减税法案，市场再现"股债汇"三杀 美国再现"股债汇"三杀，金价再度"异军突起"。 当周，纳指下跌2.5%，日经225下跌1.6%；10Y美债收益 率上行8bp至4.51%；美元指数下跌1.8%至99.12，离岸人民币升至7.1722；WTI原油下跌1.5%至61.5美元/ 桶，COMEX黄金上涨5.0%至3351.0美元/盎司。 美国众议院通过减税法案。 5月22日，美国众议院以215票赞成、214票反对的微弱优势通过了《美丽大 法案》，法案旨在永久延续2017年《减税与就业法案》中的多项减税措施，并引入新的税收优惠。该法 案已提交参议院，共和党计划将在7月4日之前完成表决。 5月美国Markit制造业、服务业PMI反弹，日本4月核心CPI升温。 美国5月Markit制造业、服务业PMI均 提升至 52.3，前值分别为50.2、50.8，或反映中美关税缓和影响；4月日本CPI同比3.6%，核心通胀（剔除 食品、能源口径）同比3.0%，后者维持上升趋势。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the monitoring framework for the economic impact of tariffs in the U.S., focusing on trade, prices, and risks [6] - It highlights the significant effects of tariffs on the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the support for the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) due to improved consumer demand [18] - The article emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach to address "involution" in various industries, identifying sectors that may be caught in this competitive spiral [8][27] Group 2 - The analysis of April economic data indicates a transition from strong "old forces" to a recovery phase for "new forces" in the economy [15] - The article points out the challenges in service consumption recovery, which is facing a supply-demand dilemma beyond just income factors [11] - It notes the differentiation in shipping prices and the stable operation of industrial production, alongside improvements in infrastructure construction [24]

Group 1 - The core issue of service consumption recovery is that it is slower compared to goods consumption, with a significant gap in service consumption tendency compared to historical trends, indicating that income may not be the primary constraint on service recovery [2][8][107] - In 2024, the gap in per capita service consumption compared to historical trends is 2,093 yuan (13.9%), while the gap for goods consumption is only 458 yuan (2.9%) [2][8][107] - The increase in working hours has led to a reduction in leisure time, with daily paid labor time increasing by 2 hours, which negatively impacts service consumption that relies heavily on leisure time [2][19][107] Group 2 - The increase in working hours has resulted in consumer spending being more concentrated around holidays, but the legal holiday days are relatively few, with the minimum legal holiday days set at 18 days by 2025, significantly lower than Japan and South Korea [3][30][108] - The average weekly working hours for urban residents in China reached 48.7 hours in 2023, which is significantly higher than Japan (32.6 hours) and South Korea (36.6 hours) [3][30][108] Group 3 - Insufficient effective supply in the service sector is a short-term constraint on consumption recovery, particularly in the life service sector, where employment numbers have fallen below historical trends by 3.8% [4][49][109] - The slow recovery of supply in the service sector is particularly evident in education, health, and cultural entertainment, with employment in these areas declining compared to historical trends [4][60][109] Group 4 - The lack of entrepreneur confidence is a significant drag on supply, with high industry costs and increased debt pressure contributing to this issue [6][110][111] - Investment in the service sector, especially in life services, has not kept pace with profitability, indicating a cautious investment behavior driven by profitability rather than proactive investment [6][90][110] Group 5 - The service sector's investment logic has shifted from proactive to reactive, leading to a slowdown in investment growth, with fixed asset acquisition in the health sector dropping significantly compared to 2019 [7][90][110] - The average cash flow ratio for the cultural and entertainment sector has decreased, reflecting increased cash flow pressure and limiting the willingness to expand supply [7][96][110]

Group 1 - Industrial production remains stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 0.5 percentage points to 2.6% [2][5] - In the chemical sector, except for a significant drop in soda ash production, other areas like PTA and polyester filament show improvement, with year-on-year increases of 3.4 percentage points to 4.7% and 1.9 percentage points to 4.8% respectively [2][17] - The automotive semi-steel tire operating rate has improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 15.5 percentage points to -2.4% [2][17] Group 2 - Construction industry shows mixed performance; national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates are significantly lower than last year, with year-on-year changes of 1.5 percentage points to -3.5% and -0.6 percentage points to -6.9% respectively [2][28] - Asphalt operating rates have increased significantly, with a year-on-year rise of 4.8 percentage points to 6.8% [2][40] Group 3 - The real estate market continues to decline, with average daily transaction area for new homes dropping by 45.7% year-on-year to -12% [2][52] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput related to exports have also decreased, with year-on-year declines of 15.3% to -6.2% and 7.1% to -0.3% respectively [2][63] Group 4 - Agricultural product prices show divergence; vegetable and egg prices have decreased by 2.2% and 0.6% respectively, while pork prices remain stable and fruit prices have increased by 0.7% [3][105] - Industrial product prices have rebounded, with the South China industrial product price index rising by 2% [3][117]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first four months of 2025, highlighting a decline in general public budget revenue and an increase in expenditure, indicating a potential for fiscal acceleration supported by government debt financing [2][7]. Group 1: Fiscal Performance Overview - In the first four months of 2025, general public budget revenue was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while expenditure was 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [2][7]. - The broad fiscal revenue grew by 2.7% year-on-year in April 2025, and broad fiscal expenditure increased by 12.9%, with both metrics showing improvement compared to March [3][8]. Group 2: Debt Financing and Support - The broad fiscal deficit reached -2.7 trillion yuan in April 2025, higher than the average deficit of -1.4 trillion yuan from 2020 to 2024, indicating effective support from government debt financing [10]. - As of May 16, 2025, the net financing of government bonds reached 2.4 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 49.4%, significantly higher than the 20.9% progress in the same period of 2024 [10]. Group 3: Special Bonds and Land Revenue - The issuance progress of new special bonds remains slow, with a current issuance scale of 1.37 trillion yuan and a progress rate of 31%, lower than the 43.5% and 43.1% in 2022 and 2023 respectively [13]. - Land transfer revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 4% in April 2025, with a significant improvement in the growth rate compared to March, indicating potential recovery in local government financing [12][19]. Group 4: Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue increased by 8.1% year-on-year in April 2025, with land transfer income contributing to this improvement [19]. - Government fund expenditure surged by 44.7% year-on-year in April 2025, driven by the recovery in land transfer income and accelerated issuance of special bonds [31]. Group 5: Tax Revenue Trends - General fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 1.9% in April 2025, with tax revenue recovering marginally, particularly in stamp duty and individual income tax [25]. - The budget completion rate for general fiscal revenue in April 2025 was 9.3%, slightly higher than the same period in 2024 and the average of the past five years [25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining birth rates in Europe and East Asia, exploring international experiences and potential policies for China to address this issue. Group 1: International Experience in Addressing Low Birth Rates - European and East Asian economies have implemented various birth support policies, including cash subsidies and parental leave, which have shown positive effects on birth rates [2][27]. - OECD countries emphasize systematic and tiered birth support policies targeting parents, children, and businesses, with significant fiscal support and childcare services contributing to improved birth rates [2][31]. - Countries like France and Sweden have successfully increased their total fertility rates (TFR) above replacement levels due to robust fiscal support and comprehensive childcare systems, while South Korea and Singapore have seen limited success due to late and insufficient policy implementation [2][43]. Group 2: Characteristics of China's Population Changes - China's fertility rate has been declining, with the proportion of women of childbearing age decreasing from 20.99% in 2003 to 16.96% in 2023, alongside rising average marriage ages [3][67]. - The labor participation rate of women aged 15-64 remains high at around 70%, but the increasing costs of child-rearing and high employment rates contribute to lower fertility intentions [3][78]. - The flow of population, particularly among young adults, has been increasing, with 3.8 billion migrants by 2020, affecting birth intentions due to disparities in public services and household registration systems [4][84]. Group 3: Potential Fertility Policies for China - Local governments are beginning to implement child-rearing subsidies, with Hohhot offering significant financial support for families with children, which could lead to a total subsidy scale exceeding 370 billion yuan if adopted nationwide [5][96]. - A comprehensive support system is needed beyond cash subsidies, including employment rights for women, educational support, healthcare improvements, and housing policies to create a more favorable environment for child-rearing [5][96]. - Since 2013, China has gradually adjusted its family planning policies, moving from a "two-child" policy to a "three-child" policy, and has introduced tax incentives and local subsidies to encourage higher birth rates [5][96].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for "anti-involution" measures in various industries due to increasing competition and supply-demand imbalances, particularly in the context of government policies aimed at fostering a more sustainable and efficient market environment [1][2][20]. Group 1: Reasons for Emphasizing "Anti-Involution" - The industrial sector in China is facing significant supply-demand imbalances, highlighted by a decline in capacity utilization and persistent negative growth in the Producer Price Index (PPI), which has been negative for 31 consecutive months as of April 2025 [2][8]. - Capacity utilization rates have dropped from 77.7% in Q3 2021 to 75.1% in Q1 2025, indicating underutilization of resources [2][8]. - Local governments are increasingly competing for investment, leading to "involution" in certain sectors, characterized by concentrated efforts in similar industries, aggressive policy competition, and a lack of sustainable project management mechanisms [2][14]. Group 2: Industries with Potential "Involution" Competition - The focus of the "anti-involution" policy is on four key industries: photovoltaic, e-commerce, automotive, and steel, with measures including industry regulations, anti-monopoly enforcement, and capacity adjustments [3][22]. - Based on data indicators, industries such as black metal smelting, electrical machinery, and non-metallic products are identified as having a high degree of "involution" competition due to low capacity utilization and negative PPI growth [4][24]. - Other industries potentially affected include coal mining, automotive manufacturing, chemical raw materials, and pharmaceutical manufacturing, which exhibit similar characteristics of "involution" [4][47]. Group 3: New Aspects of the Current "Anti-Involution" Measures - The current round of "anti-involution" emphasizes industry self-discipline and market mechanisms, contrasting with previous supply-side reforms that focused primarily on traditional heavy industries [5][49]. - There is a stronger emphasis on regional collaboration and technological upgrades, aiming to create a differentiated and complementary industrial development structure while promoting high-quality growth [6][49]. - The government aims to eliminate outdated capacity and improve inefficient production through targeted policies that leverage digital and green technologies [6][49].

Group 1 - Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of building a community with a shared future between China and Latin America, proposing five major initiatives for cooperation and development [1] - Li Qiang highlighted the strategy of strengthening the domestic circulation to ensure stable economic growth, focusing on efficient resource allocation, technological innovation, and balancing supply and demand [2][3] - The recent China-US trade talks resulted in significant tariff reductions, with the US canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating similarly [4][5] Group 2 - The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference discussed leveraging technological innovation to enhance productivity and achieve high-quality development [6][7] - The State Council issued guidelines for urban renewal, aiming to optimize urban structures and improve living conditions through various initiatives [8][9] - A new "National Venture Capital Guidance Fund" was established to support technological innovation and the growth of strategic emerging industries [10][11][12] Group 3 - The State Administration for Market Regulation announced measures to combat "involution" competition, focusing on fair market practices and the enforcement of competition laws [13][14]

Core Viewpoints - The economy is transitioning from a phase of "old forces" declining to "new forces" gaining momentum, indicating a structural shift in economic dynamics [2][4][41] Consumption - In April, the growth rate of social retail sales fell to 5.1%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a decline in retail sales of goods above a certain threshold [10][64] - The slowdown in the "old-for-new" policy has negatively impacted consumption, particularly in sectors like automobiles and communication equipment, while essential consumption remains stable, especially in food and pharmaceuticals [2][10] Investment - Fixed asset investment showed weakness, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.0% in April, and a month-on-month decline of 0.8 percentage points to 3.6% [2][16] - The decline in investment is attributed to the nearing end of the equipment renewal cycle, affecting manufacturing and public utility investments [2][16][52] - Service sector investment remains resilient, with a notable rebound in cultural and entertainment investments [3][23] Real Estate - Supply-side issues in real estate are improving, but the release of pent-up demand is entering a "decline phase" [3][26] - The construction completion rate has significantly dropped, leading to a stabilization in housing prices, while real estate investment continues to decline [3][26][61] Industrial Production - Industrial production has seen a decline, with the industrial added value in April at 6.1%, down 1.6 percentage points from March [5][36] - Manufacturing production has also decreased, particularly in sectors related to real estate and consumer goods [36][42] Employment - The urban survey unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.1% in April, indicating improved employment pressure for both local and migrant populations [71]