Core Viewpoint - The primary focus of the current macroeconomic policy is to expand domestic demand, with a particular emphasis on boosting consumption as a key driver of economic growth [2][12]. Summary by Sections Loan Rates and Monetary Policy - In Q1 2025, the loan interest rates from financial institutions increased by 16 basis points to 3.44% compared to Q4 2024. Specifically, general loan rates decreased by 7 basis points to 3.75%, while bill rates surged by 53 basis points to 1.55%, and mortgage rates rose by 4 basis points to 3.13% [1]. Domestic Demand Expansion - The report highlights that expanding domestic demand is the foremost task of macroeconomic policy, with consumption being crucial. The central bank emphasizes the importance of consumption in driving economic growth and proposes various financial measures to support it. It also notes the persistent imbalance between strong supply and weak demand in the real economy, with major price indicators remaining low [2]. Government Debt and Fiscal Policy - The central bank compares the government debt situations of China, the US, and Japan, indicating that China's total government assets are equivalent to 166% of GDP, while total liabilities are 75% of GDP, resulting in a net asset ratio of 91%. This asset backing provides room for debt expansion. The report mentions increased fiscal support and accelerated issuance of special bonds, which creates space for future incremental debt policies [5]. Bond Market Risks - The report discusses the volatility in government bond yields and the associated risks in the bond market. It notes that large state-owned banks hold a significant amount of bonds, primarily for maturity, while smaller financial institutions engage in more trading, which poses risks. The central bank encourages larger banks to increase bond trading to maintain supply-demand balance and reasonable pricing [6][8]. Transition to Price-Based Regulation - The central bank continues to shift towards price-based regulation, with a focus on maintaining liquidity through various monetary policy tools. The report outlines changes in the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and emphasizes the importance of managing expectations and enhancing certainty in monetary policy [10]. Economic Outlook and External Factors - The report expresses concerns about external economic pressures, including trade and inflation risks. It highlights the need for robust domestic demand and mentions that while the economic foundation is solid, uncertainties in the external environment remain significant [12][14]. Future Policy Directions - The report indicates that future monetary policy will focus on increasing support for the real economy, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises, and on boosting consumption. It also suggests that deposit rates may have room for reduction as part of a broader strategy to lower financing costs [13][16].

报 告 正 文 CPI 环比 超季节性回升， PPI 同比降幅再走扩。 CPI 方面， 4 月 CPI 环比由降转涨，超出季节性，但由于受 到国际油价的拖累， CPI 同比降幅持平上月。核心 CPI 环比由平转涨，同比涨幅持平上月。 PPI 方面， 受到 输入性因素和国内需求暂弱影响， 4 月 PPI 环比降幅持平上月，同比降幅走扩 0.2 个百分点。 CPI 环比上涨主要由食品和出行拉动。 4 月 CPI 环比增速录得 0.1% ，较上月回升 0.5 个百分点，食品和出 行是带动 CPI 环比回升的主要动力。食品方面，食品价格环比上涨 0.2% ，高于季节性水平 1.4 个百分点， 创下历年同期次高。其中，鲜菜和猪肉价格降幅均小于季节性。服务方面，需求回暖和假日因素影响下，机 票、交通工具租赁、宾馆住宿等价格涨幅均高于季节性。其次，国际金价波动带动国内金饰品价格有所上涨。 CPI 同比下降主因国际油价同比降幅走扩，扣除食品和能源价格的核心 CPI 上涨 0.5% ，涨幅持平上月。 国际输入性因素和国内需求暂弱继续拖累 PPI 。 4 月 PPI 环比降幅持平上月，同比降幅再走扩，一是国际原 油价格下行，二是 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's export growth in April recorded a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, which is a decline of over 4 percentage points from March but higher than market expectations, indicating strong export resilience [1][2] Export Performance - The decline in export growth is attributed to a decrease in quantity contribution while price drag has narrowed [4] - Exports to transshipment countries and neighboring regions showed higher growth rates, particularly in integrated circuits and automobiles, while direct exports to the US saw a significant drop [6][8] Factors Contributing to Export Resilience - The resilience in exports is primarily driven by transshipment activities and tariff exemptions on certain goods from the US, with over 20% of Chinese goods exempted from export tariffs, particularly in semiconductors, consumer electronics, and pharmaceuticals [1][2] - Despite a notable decline in direct exports to the US, exports to ASEAN and other transshipment countries have increased significantly, indicating a substantial counterbalance from transshipment activities [6] Future Export Trends - The outlook for exports suggests a potential overall decline, with expectations of reaching a low point by mid-year due to the impact of US inflation and economic slowdown [14] - Even with a downward trend in exports, the corresponding demand for imported components may also decrease, leading to a slower reduction in trade surplus and less drag on economic growth [14] Import Performance - In April, China's import growth was recorded at -0.2%, which is an increase of over 4 percentage points from March, indicating significant improvement in imports [10] - The increase in imports is attributed to improved domestic consumption and a phenomenon of "panic buying" due to retaliatory tariffs from the US [10][12] Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus in April was $96.18 billion, a decrease of $6.46 billion from March, reflecting the overall trends in exports and imports [14]

报 告 正 文 继续暂停降息，等待实际数据降温 。 本次议息会议中，美联储决定将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.5%的目标范围内，并按原有节奏继续执行缩表。在本次议息会 议声明中，美联储新增判断 "高失业率和高通胀风险已经增加" （the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen），经济前景不确定性"进一 步"（further）增加。美联储主席鲍威尔在记者会上表示，不需要急于调整利率，目前等待的成本较低。政策是适度限制的，等到6月才能做出预测。 美联储需 要真实数据反映，而不仅仅是情绪 ，尽管市场很担心，但关税冲击还没有到来。如果双重目标之间存在矛盾，要考虑与目标之间的距离和弥合差距的时间。 此外，鲍威尔重申特朗普施压不会影响美联储的工作。 我们认为， 一方面，美国就业仍趋于降温 ，4月新增非农就业人数回落、前值下修，失业率保持平稳，薪资增速略有回落，整体表现仍然稳健。不过，政府裁 员影响在未来仍将逐渐显现，同时关税等经济政策不确定仍高，或在一定程度上减缓企业招聘，关税等经济政策或对私营企业招聘决策造成负面影响，就业市 场或仍将趋于 ...

报 告 正 文 实质性货币宽松重启。 央行宣布下调7天逆回购利率0.1个百分点至1.4%，政策利率自去年9月后再度调降。从 幅度来看，本次降息10BP，不及去年9月的20BP，后续LPR预计也将跟随下调0.1%。从时点来看， 一方面， 美国对中国加征关税将给我国出口带来冲击，其对于经济的不利影响或在二季度开始显现，货币政策优先目标 有必要过渡至经济增长； 另一方面， 市场预期美联储降息最早在7月落地，汇率压力有望随之缓解，货币政策 实质性宽松的窗口打开。 降准补充流动性缺口。 央行宣布全面降准0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元，本次降准后 整体存款准备金率的平均水平将从6.6%降至6.2%。 首先， 随着特别国债在4月下旬开启发行，叠加专项债发 行提速，二季度政府债净供给压力或将抬升，流动性缺口加大，因此货币政策与财政协同发力，保持流动性充 裕，后续央行也可能重启公开市场买入国债操作，以配合政府债券的发行； 其次， 后续每月的买断式逆回购 到期规模较高，5月到期9000亿元，6月和7月到期规模均为1.2万亿，续作的压力较高； 最后， 我国商业银行 净息差去年末已降至1.52%的低位，降准提供 ...

Group 1 - The announcement of reciprocal tariff policies has led to increased uncertainty in international trade, causing a decline in investor confidence in the U.S. government and a "sell-off" in the U.S. Treasury market, with the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.5% [1][4][19] - The sell-off primarily involved long-term Treasuries, particularly those with maturities of five years or more, while short-term Treasury yields remained stable [1][4][6] - Non-official investors, including overseas and domestic investors, are likely responsible for the sell-off, with significant outflows from Japanese residents and large redemptions from U.S. bond funds [6][8][11] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury's monthly cumulative deficit reached a new high since the 2022 fiscal year, indicating that future fiscal deficits may be difficult to improve if current spending structures remain unchanged [2][20] - The supply of Treasuries is currently constrained by the debt ceiling, with the Treasury's General Account (TGA) balance expected to be exhausted by August [2][24] - Long-term projections suggest that U.S. debt levels are unlikely to decrease, with ongoing discussions about tax cuts and debt ceiling increases potentially leading to higher future Treasury supply [20][26][27] Group 3 - Despite the recent sell-off, there is potential for U.S. Treasuries to strengthen if the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts, which could lead to a decline in overall Treasury yields [3][29][30] - The current depreciation of the dollar makes Treasuries relatively "cheap," and the Fed's actions could improve market confidence in the U.S. economy, further supporting the Treasury market [30][31] - Short-term Treasuries may outperform due to rising term premiums and increased supply of long-term bonds, which could steepen the yield curve [31]

Domestic Economic Recovery - During the May Day holiday, inter-regional personnel flow increased significantly, with approximately 630 million trips made, representing a growth of 37.1% compared to 2019 and 5% compared to 2024 [1][4][6] - Various modes of transportation saw growth, with road travel accounting for 570 million trips, a 37.2% increase from 2019, and rail and air travel also showing significant increases [6][9][11] - The subway passenger volume reached a historical high, with major cities reporting an average of 63.21 million trips per day, a 2% increase from 2024 and 18.8% from 2019 [11][10] - Domestic tourism was robust, with ticket bookings for scenic spots increasing nearly 20% year-on-year, and rural tourism orders growing over 40% [14][15] - The film market underperformed, with box office revenue dropping 51.6% year-on-year during the first three days of the holiday [17] Real Estate Sales - New home sales were at a historical low for the same period, with a cumulative sales area of approximately 325.8 million square meters, a decrease of 15.4% year-on-year [21][23] - In contrast, second-hand home sales reached a historical high, with a cumulative sales area of 259.1 million square meters, a 3.7% increase year-on-year [23] Global Asset Performance - Global stock indices mostly rose during the May Day holiday, with the MSCI global index increasing by 2.7% [2][24] - The U.S. stock market saw gains across major indices, with the industrial sector performing the best [26] - The bond market experienced mixed results, with U.S. Treasury yields rising while most other countries' bond yields fell [30][31] - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while the Chinese yuan strengthened against the dollar [36] Overseas Economic Developments - The U.S. job market remained stable, with expectations of three interest rate cuts this year, while trade tensions with Europe continued to influence monetary policy [3][38][40] - U.S. GDP for Q1 2025 showed a contraction of -0.3% due to increased imports, which were driven by tariff expectations [41] - The U.S. and China are expected to ease trade tensions, with ongoing negotiations regarding tariffs [48]

Core Viewpoint - The April non-farm payroll data indicates a slight decline in employment growth, with potential implications for the overall labor market stability and economic outlook [1][3][17]. Group 1: Employment Data - In April, the non-farm employment increased by 177,000, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous month [3]. - The combined downward revision of 58,000 jobs for February and March suggests a cooling trend in the job market [3]. - The three-month moving average of non-farm employment indicates a downward trend, pointing to a continued softening in the employment market [3]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Job growth in April was primarily concentrated in the education and healthcare sectors (70,000), transportation and warehousing (29,000), and leisure and hospitality (24,000) [5]. - Retail and leisure hotel sectors experienced the most significant declines, with reductions of 24,000 and 14,000 jobs, respectively [5]. Group 3: Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% in April, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate by 0.1 percentage points [7]. - The U6 unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.8%, indicating a stable employment market [7]. Group 4: Labor Market Dynamics - The number of job vacancies decreased to 7.19 million in March, with a vacancy rate of 4.3%, the lowest in nearly six months [9]. - The labor supply-demand gap recorded 110,000, indicating a return to pre-pandemic levels and suggesting a balance in the labor market [9]. Group 5: Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings growth in April showed a slight month-over-month decrease to 0.2%, while year-over-year growth remained steady at 3.8% [10]. - The highest year-over-year wage growth was observed in the retail and business services sectors, at 4.5% and 4.4%, respectively [12]. - Real wage growth, adjusted for inflation, increased to 1.4% in March, reflecting a steady increase in wage income [15]. Group 6: Economic Outlook - Following the release of the non-farm data, market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have been slightly adjusted to 3.5 times for the year, indicating a moderation in economic risk concerns [17]. - Despite the stable employment data, the impact of government layoffs and ongoing economic policy uncertainties may continue to dampen hiring prospects [17].

关税前美国"抢消费 " 。 从零售增速来看， 2025 年 3 月美国零售销售同比增速升至 4.9% ，为 2023 年 12 月以来的最高水平， 3 月环比增速升至 1.5% ，或反映美国居民在关税预期下抢先消费。 一方面， 美国非 农数据显示， 2024 年 6 月以来，美国名义时薪同比增速稳定在 4% 左右，实际时薪增速同比增速在 1% 附近波动，薪资收入增长依旧较为稳定。 但另一方面， 居民超额储蓄即将耗尽，信用卡贷款利率仍在高 位，后续消费需求或有所减弱。由于关税不确定性打击消费信心， 2025 年 4 月密歇根消费者信心指数大 幅下降至 52.2 ，指向未来美国消费或仍将放缓。 报 告 正 文 进口"转换"为投资。 美国 2025 年一季度 GDP 环比折年率转负至 -0.3% ，实际同比增速回落至 2% ，显示 经济走弱。 一方面，进口大增拖累 GDP 增速。在关税预期下，美国企业"抢进口"， 一季度进口环比折年 率跃升至 41.3% 。根据 BEA ，进口产品主要为药品等消费品，以及计算机设备等资本品。 另一方面，进 口货物被用于投资，设备投资和私人库存增速大幅走高。 一季度投资环比折年率升至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's "loose monetary" signal is becoming clearer, and the liquidity remains balanced and loose. The issuance of special government bonds has begun, and the issuance of special bonds is accelerating, leading to increased government debt supply pressure in May [2][5] Group 1: Changes in Central Bank Attitude and Liquidity - In April, funding rates decreased, aligning closer to policy rates, with R007 and DR007 average monthly rates down by 19 basis points and 15.4 basis points to 1.77% and 1.72% respectively [6][7] - The central bank shifted from net absorption to net injection in mid-April, releasing supportive signals, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan through MLF in late April [7][10] - The 10-year government bond yield fell by 18.9 basis points to 1.62% by the end of April, reflecting a strong bond market amid rising expectations for loose monetary policy [10][19] Group 2: Government Debt Supply Pressure - In May, the issuance of ordinary government bonds is expected to reach 1.12 trillion yuan, with special long-term bonds at 227 billion yuan, totaling approximately 1.34 trillion yuan in government bonds, with a net financing scale of around 763 billion yuan [3][20] - Local government debt issuance is projected at 840 billion yuan in May, with a net financing scale of about 620 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase in government debt supply [26] Group 3: Maintaining Loose Liquidity - The liquidity gap in May is estimated to be around 490 billion yuan, indicating increased pressure compared to April, primarily due to the significant rise in government debt net financing [4][36] - The central bank's proactive stance is evident with a slight increase in MLF maturity to 125 billion yuan and a decrease in reverse repo maturity to 900 billion yuan, suggesting a potential for maintaining balanced liquidity [4][36] - Historical trends indicate that May typically sees net fiscal spending, with an expected fiscal deficit of approximately 830 billion yuan, further influencing liquidity dynamics [28]