1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The full A - index may continue to fluctuate, and short - term focus should be on structural changes. The molecular end of the equity market has resistance to upward breakthroughs, but the slow slope is also relatively fully priced in. The denominator end has abundant on - and off - market liquidity. Without new variables, the equity market may continue to fluctuate in the second half of 2025 [2][28]. - The rotation speed of the equity structure has reached a high level, while the rotation intensity is relatively low. Strategies may focus more on trading in the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to sectors with medium - to long - term narratives, low congestion, and low valuations, such as TMT [3][35]. - The convertible bond market declined slightly last week, and the valuation increased slightly. Only the conversion premium rates of high - rated and large - scale convertible bonds were compressed [36][42]. - Tianyang Convertible Bond announced redemption last week, and 5 convertible bonds' boards of directors proposed downward revisions. The primary market saw Hengshuai Convertible Bond listed and 4 convertible bonds issued, with an expected issuance scale of about 16 billion yuan [4][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Full A - index May Continue to Fluctuate, Short - term Focus on Structural Changes 3.1.1 Equity Aggregate: Molecular End Pressure May Be Priced In, Denominator End Has Strong Support - The weak repair of profitability quality may continue. The EPS growth rate of listed companies has been in the process of bottom - up repair since the second half of 2024. In the second half of 2025, the profitability quality of listed companies may continue the weak repair trend [10]. - The downward adjustment of profit forecasts confirms that the weak repair has been priced in the equity market. Taking the CSI 300 components as a sample, the profit growth rate forecasts for the next three fiscal years have declined significantly twice [13]. - Off - market and on - market liquidity strongly support valuations. Since September 2024, the slow decline in medium - and long - term loan growth has deviated from the trend of equity market valuation repair, which can be partly explained by interest rate decline and the repair of the M1 - M2 growth rate difference. Policy measures are also important support [2][21]. - In the second half of the year, the molecular end has resistance to upward breakthroughs, and the denominator end has abundant liquidity. Without new variables, the equity market may continue to fluctuate [28]. 3.1.2 Equity Structure: Rotation Accelerates, Pay Attention to Sector Switching Opportunities - The rotation speed has reached a high level, while the rotation intensity is relatively low. The current rotation intensity is restricted by the broad - based index, but the rotation speed is fast, corresponding to a situation of high macro - uncertainty and a lack of a clear equity market main line [29]. - The absolute difference in performance among industries is not large, but the degree of differentiation is relatively high. Industry selection still has a significant impact on relative returns. Strategies may focus more on trading, and attention should be paid to sectors such as TMT [31][35]. 3.2 Market Review: Convertible Bonds Declined Slightly Last Week, Valuation Increased Slightly 3.2.1 Weekly Market Quotes: The Convertible Bond Market Declined Slightly, Most Sectors Performed Weakly - The major stock indices declined last week, and the convertible bond market was relatively resilient. Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, most industries in the equity market declined, and the convertible bond market was also weak [36][40]. - Among popular concepts, most concepts declined last week [40]. 3.2.2 Valuation Performance: Only the Conversion Premium Rates of High - rated and Large - scale Convertible Bonds Were Compressed - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 119.42 yuan, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous Friday. The conversion premium rate of the convertible bond market's par - value fitting increased by 0.04 percentage points [42]. - Only the conversion premium rates of high - rated and large - scale convertible bonds were compressed. The conversion premium rate of the AA - rating increased by 2.7 percentage points, and that of bonds below 3 billion yuan (including 3 billion) increased by 3.0 percentage points [42]. 3.3 Terms and Supply: Tianyang Convertible Bond Announced Redemption, CSRC's Approval of Convertible Bonds Is Acceptable 3.3.1 Terms: Tianyang Convertible Bond Announced Redemption Last Week, 5 Convertible Bonds' Boards of Directors Proposed Downward Revisions - As of June 20, Tianyang Convertible Bond announced redemption, and Nanyin Convertible Bond announced redemption arrangements. 5 convertible bonds' boards of directors proposed downward revisions, 14 convertible bonds announced no downward revisions, and 9 convertible bonds announced expected triggering of downward revisions [4][62]. 3.3.2 Primary Market: Hengshuai Convertible Bond Listed Last Week, 4 Convertible Bonds Issued, Expected Issuance Scale of About 16 Billion Yuan - Hengshuai Convertible Bond was listed last week with a scale of 328 million yuan, and 4 convertible bonds were issued with a scale of 2.572 billion yuan [5][67]. - There were no new board proposals last week. As of June 20, 6 listed companies obtained approval for convertible bond issuance with a proposed issuance scale of 13.448 billion yuan, and 4 listed companies passed the CSRC review with a total scale of 2.928 billion yuan [69][74][77].

Market Overview - The market experienced a downward trend last week due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East and delayed expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[2] - Retail investor net inflow in A-shares reached 103.5 billion CNY, an increase of 8.4 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it at the 52.1 percentile over the past five years[2][30] Investment Trends - Public fund concentration trends have weakened, shifting towards growth sectors, particularly in electronics and cyclical industries[2][16] - The top 30 stocks in public funds have shown significant gains, with a rise exceeding 46% since September 18, 2024, primarily in the electronics, pharmaceuticals, and banking sectors[21][22] Social Media Insights - Kuaishou's popularity has notably increased, with a slight rise in the number of "A-share" content interactions and views over the past week[11] - The demographic of users watching "A-share" content on Douyin has shifted, with an increase in the proportion of middle-aged and older users[6] Sentiment Analysis - Overall sentiment on Weibo remained stable, but negative emotions rose due to market volatility influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic policy expectations[13] Retail Participation - The number of retail investors participating in trading slightly decreased, with an average daily trading participant count dropping by 32,000 to 314,000[34] - The financing balance remains at 1.8 trillion CNY, with a net outflow of financing funds amounting to 3.51 billion CNY, a decrease of 11.56 billion CNY from the previous week[34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for SF Holding (002352) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the sustainable optimization of free cash flow as a reflection of the company's evolving business and operational models [1][10] - Key drivers identified include the upward trend in EBIT and the stabilization of capital expenditures leading to steady depreciation and amortization [12][35] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The company has implemented a comprehensive organizational restructuring to activate operations, aiming to unleash employee potential while maintaining the advantages of a direct sales model [2] - Initial results show that from March 2025, the volume growth rate has surpassed the industry average, with growth rates of 25.4%, 30.0%, and 31.8% in March to May respectively [2][53] - The structure of time-sensitive packages is shifting from business packages to consumer and industrial manufacturing sectors, becoming a major growth driver [2][67] - The number of monthly settled customers reached 2.3 million by the end of 2024, an 18% year-on-year increase, while individual users grew to 730 million, a 10% increase [2][67] Cost Management - The company is pursuing a large operational model transformation to support ongoing cost reductions, with a focus on four major areas, ten links, and twenty-one measures [2] - The introduction of "cages" is seen as a key tool for transforming the last-mile delivery process [2] Future Business Volume - The report raises questions about the sustainability of accelerated business volume growth, particularly regarding the impact of "unmanned vehicles + cages + flexible urban capacity" [3][11] - The use of unmanned vehicles and cages is projected to significantly reduce costs in the last-mile delivery segment, with estimated savings of 2,200 yuan per month per route [3][11] Capital Expenditure and Depreciation - The peak of capital expenditure has passed, with total capital expenditures decreasing from 289 billion yuan in 2021 to an estimated 107 billion yuan in 2024, leading to a stabilization in depreciation and amortization [12][43] - The effective tax rate has been declining, contributing to improved cash flow [46] Profitability Forecast - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 12.09 billion, 13.99 billion, and 15.91 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.42, 2.80, and 3.19 yuan [13] - The target price for the stock is set at 62.7 yuan, reflecting a 24% upside from the current market value [14]

Group 1 - The report maintains a long-term optimistic view on the re-inflation bull market, indicating that the transition from financial re-inflation to physical re-inflation is underway, with a focus on the recovery of price levels [2][36][38] - The report emphasizes the importance of patience in the short term (1-2 months) while waiting for policy adjustments and market conditions to stabilize, particularly in the context of fiscal and monetary policy [6][10][11] - The report highlights the need to monitor domestic demand and price levels, noting that current CPI and PPI figures indicate a need for price recovery, with M1 growth showing signs of stabilization [18][19][28] Group 2 - The report identifies specific sectors for investment based on dividend stability, recommending banks, ports, highways, white goods, industrial metals, liquor, and telecom operators as key areas of focus [8][39] - The report suggests a focus on small-cap technology growth, particularly in AI and TMT sectors, supported by policy backing and remaining liquidity [3][8] - The report discusses the performance of various industries, noting that low-volatility dividend assets have significantly outperformed quality and cyclical dividends, with banks showing stable profitability and cash flow [39][41]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 未来一周关注美欧日 6 月制造业 PMI ——海外周报第 95 期 主要观点 ❖ 下周即将公布的海外重点经济数据 美国：6 月标普 PMI 初值（6/23），5 月成屋销量（6/23），6 月咨商局消费者 信心指数（6/24），5 月新屋销量（6/25），5 月耐用品订单初值（6/26），6 月密 歇根大学消费者信心指数和通胀预期终值（6/27）、5 月个人收入和支出（6/27）。 欧元区：6 月 PMI 初值（6/23），6 月消费者信心指数终值（6/27）。 日本：6 月 PMI 初值（6/23），6 月东京 CPI 数据（6/27），5 月失业率和求人 倍率（6/27），5 月零售销售（6/27）。 ❖ 本周海外重要经济数据和事件回顾 美国：1）美联储 6 月 FOMC 会议维持利率不变，符合预期。2）5 月零售销 售低于预期，环比-0.9%，预期-0.6%，前值从 0.1%下修至-0.1%，除汽车外的 零售销售环比-0.3%，预期 0.2%，前值从 0.1%下修至 0%。3）5 月工业产值低 于预期，环比-0.2%，预期 0%，前值从 0 上修至 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for H-shares over A-shares, emphasizing the potential of Hong Kong dividend assets [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that H-shares have outperformed A-shares, with significant gains in key dividend stocks during June 2025. The top performers include Anhui Wantuo Expressway (+18.66%), Jiangsu Ninghu Expressway (+14.71%), and COSCO Shipping Ports (+9.17%) [4][17]. - The report notes a low interest rate environment, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing to 1.64% as of June 20, 2025, which supports the attractiveness of dividend assets [24]. - The report indicates a significant increase in average daily trading volume for ports, with a 213% year-on-year increase in June 2025 [25]. Monthly Market Performance - H-shares showed better performance compared to A-shares, with the transportation sector experiencing a cumulative decline of 0.80% from June 1 to June 20, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.96 percentage points [8][9]. - The report details that from June 1 to June 20, 2025, the cumulative performance of expressways, railways, and ports was -2.56%, -1.81%, and -1.01%, respectively, indicating a relative underperformance against the broader market [9][10]. Industry Data - In the expressway sector, passenger traffic in April 2025 reached 970 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, while freight volume was 3.746 billion tons, up 4.1% year-on-year [35]. - The railway sector saw a passenger volume of 406 million in May 2025, reflecting a 12.6% year-on-year increase, while freight volume was 440 million tons, a 0.6% increase [51]. - Port throughput for monitored ports reached 1.054 billion tons in the four weeks from May 19 to June 15, 2025, marking a 2.2% year-on-year growth [58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for transportation dividend assets, particularly in the expressway sector, where it recommends focusing on companies like Sichuan Chengyu Expressway and Anhui Wantuo Expressway due to their high dividend yields and stable growth potential [76][78]. - In the port sector, the report recommends companies like China Merchants Port, highlighting their overseas asset layout and potential for increased dividend payouts [79][80]. - For the railway sector, the report emphasizes the long-term value and reform benefits, recommending key assets like Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway and Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway [78].

证 券 研 究 报 告 保险行业周报（20250616-20250620） 险企提前筹备利率换挡，分红险"限令"预 推荐（维持） 计利好头部 ❑ 本周行情复盘：保险指数上涨 0.24%，跑赢大盘 0.69pct。保险个股表现分化， 众安+4.81%，新华+3.27%，太平+0.57%，平安+0.48%，人保+0.24%，国寿- 0.74%，财险-1.06%，太保-1.48%，友邦-1.88%，阳光-2.04%。10 年期国债收 益率 1.64%，较上周末持平。 ❑ 本周动态： （1）格隆汇：2025 年 6 月 12 日，秦港股份获长城人寿增持 100 万股，涉资 约 231.71 万港元。增持后，长城人寿最新持股数目为 2.58 亿股，持股比例由 30.97%上升至 31.09%。 （2）中国证券报：近期，多家保险公司业务部门进行新产品开发备案，为了 适应利率换挡后新老产品切换节奏，从销售人员培训到渠道合作等方面，做了 多方面准备。 （3）财联社：记者 6 月 19 日从业内获悉，金融监管总局人身保险监管司向各 人身保险公司下发了《关于分红险分红水平监管意见的函》（以下简称《意见 函》）。 ❑ 分红险《意见 ...

Group 1: Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global energy trade, with approximately 20.3 million barrels per day passing through, accounting for about 20% of global oil consumption and 27% of maritime oil trade[3] - In 2024, global oil and liquid fuel consumption is projected to be around 102.7 million barrels per day, with 75.5 million barrels per day transported by sea, representing 74% of total consumption[3] - The Strait also plays a significant role in natural gas trade, with LNG trade through the Strait expected to account for about 20% of global LNG trade in 2024, equating to approximately 9% of global natural gas trade[3] Group 2: Impact of Potential Blockade - A blockade of the Strait would primarily affect oil exports from Saudi Arabia (5.5 million barrels/day), Iraq (3.2 million barrels/day), UAE (1.9 million barrels/day), Iran (1.4 million barrels/day), and Kuwait (1.3 million barrels/day)[4] - Approximately 84% of the oil trade through the Strait is directed towards Asia, with China importing 4.8 million barrels/day (24% of Strait trade, 42% of China's imports), India 1.9 million barrels/day (9% of Strait trade, 40% of India's imports), and South Korea 1.7 million barrels/day (9% of Strait trade, 63% of South Korea's imports)[4] - If the Strait were to be blocked, Saudi Arabia and the UAE could potentially replace about 2.6 million barrels/day through pipelines[4] Group 3: Historical Context of Blockades - Historically, Iran has threatened to block the Strait multiple times, but these threats have not materialized due to external pressures and Iran's reliance on oil revenue[5] - The closest instance of a blockade occurred during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), where oil tanker attacks did not lead to significant price fluctuations[5] - Since the 21st century, threats to block the Strait have not resulted in drastic oil price changes, indicating a pattern of limited market reaction to such threats[5] Group 4: Inflation Impact from Oil Price Increases - A 10% increase in international oil prices could raise China's CPI by approximately 0.15-0.3 percentage points and PPI by about 0.35-0.7 percentage points[6] - For the United States, a similar 10% rise in oil prices may increase CPI by about 0.25-0.4 percentage points, with gasoline prices rising approximately 6%[6]

Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes that Xinjiang is benefiting from two major strategic shifts: the transition from coastal economies to the Belt and Road Initiative, positioning Xinjiang as a frontier hub with geographical advantages. The balance is shifting towards energy security and dual carbon environmental goals, making coal chemical industry a focal point for Xinjiang's resource advantages [7][8][10] - The report highlights the importance of coal chemical development in Xinjiang, noting that external conditions are now favorable for this sector. Factors include rising coal prices, alignment with China's resource endowments, and supportive industrial policies [7][8][9] - The report suggests focusing on two main investment lines: coal chemical investments and state-owned enterprise reforms. Key companies to watch include Tebian Electric Apparatus, Baofeng Energy, and Guanghui Energy, among others [11][12] Xinjiang Index Situation - The Xinjiang index stands at 104.9, down 0.46% week-on-week, while the coal chemical investment index is at 99.7, down 2.77%. The state-owned enterprise reform index is at 110.8, up 0.86% [14] - The top three gainers this week include: - Zhun Oil Co., Ltd. (002207.SZ) up 40.23% - Beiken Energy (002828.SZ) up 20.22% - International Industry (000159.SZ) up 13.34% - The top three decliners include: - Beixin Road and Bridge (002307.SZ) down 6.73% - Fosda (603173.SH) down 7.58% - Huijia Times (603101.SH) down 11.07% [14] Key Data Tracking - Key prices in Xinjiang include: - Q5000 mixed coal at 100 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week - Q5200 mixed coal at 197 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week - Main焦煤 at 780 CNY/ton - Methanol price at 1605 CNY/ton, with a price difference of -1180 CNY/ton compared to East China - Urea price at 1681 CNY/ton, with a price difference of -139 CNY/ton compared to Shandong [19] - In May 2025, coal railway shipments from key state-owned coal mines reached 3.308 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%. The raw coal production in Xinjiang was 46.651 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.44% [19] Key News and Company Announcements - On June 13, the National Development and Reform Commission approved the 2 billion cubic meters/year coal-to-natural gas project by Xinjiang Tianchi Energy Co., Ltd. The total investment for this project is 17.04 billion CNY [37][39] - Recent updates on key coal chemical projects include: - Tebian Electric's coal-to-gas project approved with a capacity of 20 billion cubic meters/year - National Energy Group's coal-to-gas project with a capacity of 40 billion cubic meters/year is progressing with equipment tenders [41]

证 券 研 究 报 告 风电行业周报（20250616-20250622） 周内广东海风中标 0.8GW，均价为 2506 元 推荐（维持） /kW 辽宁：6 月 20 日，《辽宁共识》达成，将开发 13.1GW 海上风电。 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 东方电缆 | 48.60 | 2.29 | 2.94 | 3.65 | 21.21 | 16.55 | 13.32 | 4.14 | 推荐 | | 中天科技 | 13.52 | 1.04 | 1.17 | 1.29 | 13.00 | 11.56 | 10.51 | 1.21 | 推荐 | | 明阳智能 | 10.67 | 0.71 | 0.94 | 1.16 | 15.01 | 11.37 | 9 ...