- The short-term A-share models include the volume model (neutral), low volatility model (neutral), characteristic institutional model (neutral), characteristic volume model (bearish), intelligent CSI 300 model (bullish), and intelligent CSI 500 model (bearish) [1][10][68] - The mid-term A-share models include the limit-up and limit-down model (neutral) and the calendar effect model (neutral) [11][69] - The long-term A-share model is the long-term momentum model, which is neutral for all broad-based indices [12][70] - The comprehensive A-share models include the A-share comprehensive weapon V3 model (bearish) and the A-share comprehensive Guozheng 2000 model (bearish) [13][71] - The mid-term Hong Kong stock model is the turnover amplitude model, which is bullish [14][72] - The backtesting results for the models are as follows: - Volume model: neutral [1][10][68] - Low volatility model: neutral [1][10][68] - Characteristic institutional model: neutral [1][10][68] - Characteristic volume model: bearish [1][10][68] - Intelligent CSI 300 model: bullish [1][10][68] - Intelligent CSI 500 model: bearish [1][10][68] - Limit-up and limit-down model: neutral [11][69] - Calendar effect model: neutral [11][69] - Long-term momentum model: neutral [12][70] - A-share comprehensive weapon V3 model: bearish [13][71] - A-share comprehensive Guozheng 2000 model: bearish [13][71] - Turnover amplitude model: bullish [14][72]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [17]. Core Insights - The report highlights the introduction of the "National Network Identity Authentication Public Service Management Measures," which will take effect on July 15, 2025. This regulation emphasizes the importance of the identity authentication industry and presents opportunities within the supply chain [2][7]. - The management measures consist of 16 articles that clarify the concepts of national network identity authentication services, application scenarios, and the responsibilities of platforms regarding data security and personal information protection [7]. - The report encourages voluntary use of network identity certificates and numbers, ensuring user rights while promoting their application across various sectors [7]. - Privacy data protection is a key focus, with specific measures outlined for data management, storage, and incident response [7]. - A national network identity authentication app has been launched, allowing users to apply for digital identity credentials through secure methods [7]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies within the network identity authentication supply chain, such as Shengbang Security, New大陆, and Sanwei Xinan [7]. Industry Data - The computer industry comprises 336 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 41,548.90 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 35,628.74 billion [4]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 12 months is 30.2%, while the relative performance is 23.6% [5].

证 券 研 究 报 告 电魂网络（603258）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 业绩短期有所承压，后续重点关注《修仙时 代》等新游上线表现 事项： ❖ 发布 24Q4 和 25Q1 财报：业绩短期有所承压。24Q4 公司实现收入 1.38 亿元， YOY-19.8%，QOQ-2.0%；实现归母净利润-0.44 亿元；实现扣非归母净利润- 0.46 亿元。25Q1 公司实现收入 1.02 亿元，YOY-25.6%，QOQ-25.8%；实现归 母净利润 0.02 亿元；扣非归母净利润基本盈亏平衡。Q4、Q1 业绩均有所承 压。2024 年整体实现收入 5.5 亿元，YOY-19%；实现归母净利润 3058 万元； 实现扣非归母净利润 530 万元。 评论： [主要财务指标 ReportFinancialIndex] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 550 | 1,025 | 1,278 | 1,433 | | 同比增速(%) | -18.7% | 86.1% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Bilibili (BILI), expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [16]. Core Insights - Bilibili's Q1 2025 financial results showed revenue of 7 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 24%, aligning with Bloomberg consensus expectations. The gross profit reached 2.54 billion yuan, up 58% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 36.3%, also meeting expectations. The company achieved a non-GAAP net profit of 362 million yuan, marking a return to profitability and exceeding consensus forecasts [1]. - Cost-saving measures contributed to the better-than-expected profit, with R&D expenses at 840 million yuan, 7% lower than expected, and sales expenses at 1.17 billion yuan, 3% below expectations. Overall, total expenses were 4% lower than anticipated [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Bilibili are adjusted to 29.9 billion yuan for 2025, 32.4 billion yuan for 2026, and 34.6 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 12%, 8%, and 7% respectively [7]. - The forecast for non-GAAP net profit is updated to 2.01 billion yuan for 2025, 3.6 billion yuan for 2026, and 4.99 billion yuan for 2027, with significant year-over-year growth rates of 147.8%, 247.1%, and 62.3% respectively [7]. Business Segment Performance - Mobile gaming revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.73 billion yuan, a 76% year-over-year increase, driven primarily by the core SLG product "Three Kingdoms: Strategy of the World" [7]. - Advertising revenue reached 2 billion yuan, a 20% year-over-year increase, supported by stable user growth, with daily active users (DAU) reaching 107 million, a 4% year-over-year increase [7]. - Value-added services generated 2.8 billion yuan in revenue, an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by live streaming and other services [7]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price for Bilibili is set at $21.20, based on a 20x PE ratio for the 2026 non-GAAP net profit, discounted back to 2025 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [6][16]. Core Insights - The company's short-term performance is under pressure, with a focus on the upcoming launch of new games such as "Xiu Xian Shi Dai" [1][7]. - The company reported a revenue of 138 million yuan in Q4 2024, a year-over-year decline of 19.8%, and a revenue of 102 million yuan in Q1 2025, down 25.6% year-over-year [1][3]. - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected at 550 million yuan, reflecting a 19% year-over-year decrease, with a net profit of 30.58 million yuan [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, with projections of 1.025 billion yuan in 2025, 1.278 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.433 billion yuan in 2027, representing year-over-year growth rates of 86.1%, 24.8%, and 12.1% respectively [3][8]. - The net profit is forecasted to rebound sharply, with estimates of 311 million yuan in 2025, 401 million yuan in 2026, and 454 million yuan in 2027, showing year-over-year growth rates of 918.6%, 28.7%, and 13.3% respectively [3][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.13 yuan in 2024 to 1.86 yuan in 2027 [3][8]. Product and Market Insights - The company’s core products, including "Meng San Guo 2" and "Meng Ta Fang," have stable operations, with "Meng San Guo 2" having over 100 million registered users and being included in the Hangzhou Asian Games [7][8]. - The company has a rich pipeline of new products, including "Luo Xuan Yong Shi" and "Jiang Hu Ru Meng," which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [7][8]. - The upcoming game "Xiu Xian Shi Dai," which will be published by Tencent, is anticipated to provide significant revenue and profit elasticity [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 18.80 CNY based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025 [6][10]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading global manufacturer in System in Package (SiP) technology, benefiting from the growing demand in consumer electronics, AI glasses, and the automotive sector. The report anticipates a recovery in growth starting in 2025, driven by new business opportunities in AI and robotics [6][8][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A to 2027E are as follows: 60,691 million CNY in 2024, 63,750 million CNY in 2025, 72,976 million CNY in 2026, and 80,259 million CNY in 2027, with respective growth rates of -0.2%, 5.0%, 14.5%, and 10.0% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1,652 million CNY in 2024, increasing to 2,916 million CNY by 2027, with growth rates of -15.2%, 24.5%, 23.0%, and 15.3% [2]. - Earnings per share are expected to rise from 0.75 CNY in 2024 to 1.33 CNY in 2027 [2]. Company Overview - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the largest shareholder holding 76.67% of the shares. The management team has extensive industry experience, contributing to the company's strategic execution and operational efficiency [36][37]. - The company operates in six major sectors: wireless communications, consumer electronics, cloud and storage, automotive electronics, industrial, and medical electronics [15][30]. Business Segments - The SiP business is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for lightweight and compact packaging in consumer electronics, particularly in AI glasses and foldable screens [6][8][54]. - The new business initiatives include ASIC chip development and robotics, which are anticipated to become significant growth drivers starting in 2025 [9][10]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in the SiP market, with a strong focus on high integration and miniaturization technologies, which are crucial for the evolving consumer electronics landscape [6][8][54]. - The report highlights the company's strategic partnerships and technological advancements that position it favorably within the competitive landscape [6][8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 理财产品跟踪报告 2025 年第 1 期（4 月 21 日-5 月 18 日） 低风险理财、债券型基金受青睐，保险产品 处于转型期 ❑ 在市场持续降息的背景下，存款利率突破历史下限。5 月 20 日央行下调 LPR， 多家银行同步下调存款利率，1 年期定存利率降至 1%以下，传统储蓄产品收 益率优势显著收窄，触发个人投资者大规模资产重配置需求，尤其是同样具有 较高安全性的货基和固收型理财产品。同时，具有一定风险承受能力的资金， 为了追求目标收益率，也存在进一步提升风险偏好，增加权益配置和长期配置 的情况。 ❑ 银行理财产品： ❑ 2025 年 4 月 21 日-5 月 18 日期间，全市场共新发 5097 款理财产品，其中固定 收益类产品占主导，低风险、中短期产品受投资者青睐。固收型理财产品作为 存款的替代需求承接者，在预期收益率同样下行的环境下，依然保持较高的景 气。 ❑ 基金产品： ❑ 保险产品： 产业研究 综合金融 2025 年 05 月 24 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：洪锦屏 电话：0755-82755952 邮箱：hongjinping@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S ...

策略研究 证券研究报 告 【策略专题】 港股自由现金流行业比较 ——自由现金流资产系列 11 ❖ 港股自由现金流回报领先行业：煤炭、工用运输、主要零售商、石油天然 气、电讯。最直接的比较资产的自由现金流性价比，即对比恒生二级非金融 行业近 10 年平均的自由现金流回报率（FCFF/MV）来看，领先且 2024 截面 为正行业分别为煤炭 17%、工用运输 14%、主要零售商 11%、石油天然气 10%、电讯 10%，基本为消费&服务&资源类行业，其创造的自由现金流体量 相对于市值水平来说性价比显著；而相对现金流回报最靠后的行业包括农 业、半导体、医疗设备服务、媒体娱乐、贵金属、药品生物科技，其平均自 由现金流回报为负，表明行业整体基本未实现现金流创造，投资逻辑主要为 EPS 弹性。 ❖ 从自由现金流相关基本面数据来看： 1）资本开支比例（CAPEX/EBITDA）：近 10年平均为主要零售商 31%、纺服 32%、软件服务 33%、专业零售 38%、家电 39%、煤炭 39%比例较低； 2）净营运资本变化比例：近 10 年平均较低的为农业、地产、汽车、旅游消 闲设施； 3）自由现金流比例：近 10 年平均相对领 ...

证券研究报 告 【策略专题】 港股自由现金流行业比较 策略研究 ——自由现金流资产系列 11 ❖ 港股自由现金流回报领先行业：煤炭、工用运输、主要零售商、石油天然 气、电讯。最直接的比较资产的自由现金流性价比，即对比恒生二级非金融 行业近 10 年平均的自由现金流回报率（FCFF/MV）来看，领先且 2024 截面 为正行业分别为煤炭 17%、工用运输 14%、主要零售商 11%、石油天然气 10%、电讯 10%，基本为消费&服务&资源类行业，其创造的自由现金流体量 相对于市值水平来说性价比显著；而相对现金流回报最靠后的行业包括农 业、半导体、医疗设备服务、媒体娱乐、贵金属、药品生物科技，其平均自 由现金流回报为负，表明行业整体基本未实现现金流创造，投资逻辑主要为 EPS 弹性。 ❖ 从自由现金流相关基本面数据来看： 1）资本开支比例（CAPEX/EBITDA）：近 10年平均为主要零售商 31%、纺服 32%、软件服务 33%、专业零售 38%、家电 39%、煤炭 39%比例较低； 2）净营运资本变化比例：近 10 年平均较低的为农业、地产、汽车、旅游消 闲设施； 3）自由现金流比例：近 10 年平均相对领 ...

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