- The report introduces a "Total Heat Index" for monitoring market sentiment, which aggregates the browsing, self-selection, and click counts of individual stocks, normalized by their market share on the same day, and then multiplied by 10,000, with a value range of [0,10000][7] - The "Total Heat Index" is used as a proxy variable for "emotional heat" to track the sentiment of broad-based indices, industries, and concepts[7] - The report constructs a simple rotation strategy based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices, buying the index with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, and staying out of the market if the highest change rate is in the "others" group[13][15] - The rotation strategy based on the heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices has an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a return of 8.32% since 2025[16] - The report also constructs two simple portfolios based on the heat change rate of concepts, selecting the top 5 concepts with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, and forming a "TOP" portfolio with the top 10 stocks by total heat in each concept, and a "BOTTOM" portfolio with the bottom 10 stocks by total heat in each concept[31] - The "BOTTOM" portfolio of high-heat concepts has historically achieved significant excess returns, with an annualized return of 15.71% and a maximum drawdown of 28.89%, and a return of 18% since 2025[33] - The "Total Heat Index" for individual stocks is defined as the sum of browsing, self-selection, and click counts, normalized by their market share on the same day, and then multiplied by 10,000, with a value range of [0,10000][7] - The "Total Heat Index" for broad-based indices is obtained by summing the total heat indices of the constituent stocks of the indices, including CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000, as well as an "others" group for stocks not included in these indices[8] - The weekly heat change rate (MA2) for broad-based indices is calculated and used to construct a rotation strategy, buying the index with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, and staying out of the market if the highest change rate is in the "others" group[13][15] - The weekly heat change rate (MA2) for industries is calculated similarly, with the report listing the top 5 industries with the highest positive and negative heat change rates for both primary and secondary industries[20][27] - The weekly heat change rate for concepts is calculated similarly, with the report listing the top 30 concepts with the highest heat change rates[28][30] - Two simple portfolios are constructed based on the heat change rate of concepts, selecting the top 5 concepts with the highest heat change rate at the end of each week, and forming a "TOP" portfolio with the top 10 stocks by total heat in each concept, and a "BOTTOM" portfolio with the bottom 10 stocks by total heat in each concept[31] - The rotation strategy based on the heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices has an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a return of 8.32% since 2025[16] - The "BOTTOM" portfolio of high-heat concepts has an annualized return of 15.71% and a maximum drawdown of 28.89%, and a return of 18% since 2025[33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) [1] Core Views - Tencent's 1Q25 financial results exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 180 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 13%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus by 3% [1][8] - The NON-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was 61.3 billion CNY, up 22% year-over-year, also exceeding Bloomberg's consensus by 3% [1][8] - The target price range is set between 545.69 and 606.33 HKD, with the current price at 508.00 HKD [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 1Q25 was 1800 billion CNY, with a year-over-year growth of 13% [1][8] - NON-IFRS net profit for the same period was 613 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 22% [1][8] - The company achieved a capital expenditure (CAPEX) of 23 billion CNY, a significant year-over-year increase of 60%, representing 13% of total revenue [1][30] Business Segment Performance - **Gaming**: Revenue from the gaming segment reached 595 billion CNY, with a year-over-year growth of 24%, marking the highest growth rate in five quarters [1][18] - **Social Networks**: Revenue from social networks was 326 billion CNY, with a year-over-year increase of 7% [1][26] - **Marketing Services**: This segment generated 319 billion CNY in revenue, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 20% [1][30] - **Financial Technology and Enterprise Services**: Revenue was 549 billion CNY, with a year-over-year growth of 5% [1][32] Future Outlook - The report projects a revenue forecast for 2025-2027 of 7286 billion CNY, 7845 billion CNY, and 8356 billion CNY respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 10%, 8%, and 7% [5] - The NON-IFRS net profit forecast for the same period is adjusted to 2560 billion CNY, 2886 billion CNY, and 3131 billion CNY, with year-over-year growth rates of 15%, 13%, and 9% [5] Valuation Metrics - The report estimates the EPS for 2025-2027 to be 28.00 CNY, 31.85 CNY, and 34.87 CNY respectively, with corresponding target PE ratios of 18-20x for 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 26.5 CNY [2][8]. Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 2.39 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 230 million CNY, down 16.2% year-on-year [2][8]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to a faster growth rate in lower-margin export sales compared to domestic sales, leading to a decrease in overall gross margin [2][8]. - The company is actively optimizing its business and product structure, focusing on high-end brands and developing its automotive parts business, which is expected to create a second growth curve [2][8]. - The establishment of production bases in Vietnam and Thailand is expected to enhance the company's ability to mitigate potential tariff risks [2][8]. Financial Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 9.765 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.1%. The net profit is expected to be 1.23 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 10.2% [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is estimated at 2.19 CNY, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10 [4][9]. - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 23.4%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [2][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 14.098 billion CNY by 2025E, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 102.4% [9].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 宏观预期提振，中游价格先行回暖 ——每周高频跟踪 20250517 （1）动力煤：价格环比跌幅扩大。南方降水频繁利好水电出力，北方多地高 温天气，加之进口煤价格倒挂持续，夏季备库需求有所释放，南北需求分化。 （2）螺纹钢：宏观利好提振、表观需求增加，螺纹钢价格上涨。本周螺纹钢 现货价格环比+0.4%，前周环比-1.1%。贸易增长预期修复，投机性需求上升， 库存明显下降，支撑钢价反弹。 （3）铜：铜价涨幅收窄，供需基本面偏弱。长江有色铜、LME 铜均价环比分 别+0.3%、+1.2%，涨幅收窄。宏观利好提振预期，但铜现货消费延续弱势， 下游高价观望情绪偏强，限制铜价涨幅。 投资相关：假期后地产销售反弹，二手房量能韧性仍在 1、水泥：水泥价格延续下跌。水泥价格环比-1.5%、连续六周下跌。需求整体 走弱，房建和基建需求放缓，叠加端午节前贸易商回款一般，延续供需双弱。 2、地产：（1）30 城新房成交环比回暖。5 月 9 日-5 月 15 日，环比+69%，同 比-10%，跌幅较前周继续扩大。（2）二手房环比回升斜率高于季节性，量能韧 性仍在。本周二手房成交环比+78%、同比- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price set at 26.5 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.39 billion yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.2% year-on-year to 230 million yuan, indicating pressure on profitability [2][8]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to a faster growth rate in lower-margin export sales compared to domestic sales, which negatively impacted the overall gross margin, recorded at 23.4%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [2][8]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas production capacity, with its Vietnam factory already in mass production and the Thailand factory expected to start production in Q2 2025. This expansion is aimed at mitigating potential tariff risks [2][8]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its business and product structure by phasing out unprofitable brands and product lines while enhancing its high-end brand image [2][8]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2024 to 2027, the company is projected to achieve total revenue growth rates of 11.1%, 10.4%, 8.0%, and 6.8%, respectively [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow at rates of 10.2%, 1.9%, 10.0%, and 9.2% over the same period [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.19 yuan, 2.41 yuan, and 2.63 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 10, 9, and 9 [4][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025Q1, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 3.13%, the Wind Convertible Bond Underlying Stock Equal - Weighted Index rose 7.81%, and the average increase in the reinstated unit net value of 39 convertible bond funds was 3.81%, with a median of 3.59%. The overall net subscription was 3.858 billion yuan, and the net subscription rate of 39 convertible bond funds was 51.28%, a 20.51 - percentage - point increase compared to 24Q4. [8][12] - In 2025Q1, the market value of convertible bonds held by public funds was 282.274 billion yuan, a 1.85% decrease from the previous quarter, and the convertible bond position slightly decreased by 0.01 percentage points to 0.88% (the ratio of the market value of convertible bonds held to the net asset value of the fund). The market value of convertible bonds held by 39 convertible bond funds increased, the overall position rose, and the leverage ratio continued to decline quarter - on - quarter. [8][12] - In terms of industry allocation, banks remain an important underlying position for convertible bonds. Both public funds and convertible bond funds increased their positions in convertible bonds of the power equipment industry. In addition, public funds mainly increased their positions in convertible bonds of industries such as basic chemicals and electronics, while convertible bond funds mainly increased their positions in convertible bonds of industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and non - ferrous metals. [8][12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Public Funds Slightly Reduced Convertible Bond Positions and Increased Positions in Basic Chemicals and Power Equipment Convertible Bonds (1) The Market Value of Convertible Bonds Held by Public Funds Decreased Quarter - on - Quarter, and the Position Slightly Declined - In 2025Q1, the market value of convertible bonds held by public funds was 282.274 billion yuan, a 1.85% decrease from the previous quarter but a 3.98% increase year - on - year. The ratio of the market value of convertible bonds held by public funds to the market value of bond investments was 1.43%, a 0.09 - percentage - point decrease from 24Q4; the ratio to the net value was 0.88%, a slight 0.01 - percentage - point decrease from 24Q4. [12] - The market value of convertible bonds held by different types of funds changed differently quarter - on - quarter, with passive index funds performing strongly. Among them, the market value of convertible bonds held by stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds in 25Q1 increased by 87.06%, decreased by 19.13%, and increased by 0.63% respectively. [15] - In terms of the absolute amount of change, the hybrid funds had the largest decrease in market value, with a 7.396 - billion - yuan decrease in 25Q1. The stock - type funds increased by 586 million yuan, mainly contributed by passive index funds. The bond - type funds increased by 1.572 billion yuan in total, but there was significant internal differentiation. [2] (2) The Proportion of Public Fund Holdings Increased, and Brokerage Asset Management and Proprietary Trading Increased Positions - As of the end of 2025Q1, the total face value of convertible bonds held by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges was 696.248 billion yuan, a 29.725 - billion - yuan decrease from the end of 24Q4, a 4.09% quarter - on - quarter decrease. Public funds, insurance institutions, enterprise annuities, and general institutions all significantly reduced their positions. Brokerage proprietary trading and asset management increased their positions. [29] - As of the end of 25Q1, public funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges held a total face value of convertible bonds of 232.441 billion yuan, a 3.50% decrease from the end of 24Q4, but the proportion increased by 0.21 percentage points to 33.38%. [34] (3) Public Funds Adjusted Their Positioning Styles and Increased Positions in Basic Chemicals and Power Equipment Convertible Bonds - In terms of style, the market value of positions in equity - biased and debt - biased convertible bonds decreased, with a decrease of 6.121 billion and 8.660 billion yuan respectively compared to 24Q4, a decline of 18.05% and 7.49%. The market value of balanced convertible bonds increased by 6.933 billion yuan, an increase of 5.31%. [3][38] - In terms of industry layout, in 25Q1, banks were still the primary layout sector. In addition, the power equipment, basic chemicals, and electronics industries had a relatively high total market value of fund positions. [39] - In terms of the quarter - on - quarter change in market value, nearly half of the industries had positive changes. Industries such as social services, national defense and military industry, and basic chemicals had the highest increases. [39] (4) Industrial Bank Convertible Bonds Rose to the Top of the Heavily - Held Bonds, and the Market Value Increment Led - Industrial Bank Convertible Bonds were the most heavily - held bonds by public funds. Industrial Bank and Shanghai United Bank Convertible Bonds had the highest increments. Among the top ten convertible bonds in terms of total market value of fund positions, six were bank convertible bonds. [45] - Excluding bank convertible bonds, among the top ten convertible bonds in terms of the number of fund holdings, six were from the power equipment industry. [45] II. Convertible Bond Funds Outperformed the Index, with an Increase in Convertible Bond Positions and a Decrease in the Leverage Ratio (1) The Reinstated Unit Net Value Rose, and the Overall Performance Showed Net Subscription - As of 2025Q1, there were 39 convertible bond funds in the market that announced relevant data. In 25Q1, the performance of convertible bond funds outperformed the convertible bond index, with an overall net subscription and an increase in scale. [53] - The scale of convertible bond funds in 25Q1 was 54.920 billion yuan, a 3.858 - billion - yuan increase from 24Q4, a 7.56% quarter - on - quarter increase. The overall net subscription was 3.858 billion yuan, and 20 out of 39 convertible bond funds had net subscriptions, with a net subscription rate of 51.28%. [53] (2) The Convertible Bond Position Increased Quarter - on - Quarter, and the Leverage Ratio Decreased Quarter - on - Quarter - The overall position of 39 convertible bond funds increased, and the leverage ratio decreased quarter - on - quarter. In the first quarter of 2025, the ratio of the market value of convertible bonds to the net value of convertible bond funds was 84.70%, a 0.12 - percentage - point increase from the previous quarter, continuing the upward trend in 24Q4. [66] - The average leverage ratio of 39 convertible bond funds in the first quarter of 2025 was 114.81%, a 2.86 - percentage - point decrease from the previous quarter, mainly affected by the relatively high cost of funds in the first quarter. [66] (3) Convertible Bond Funds Mainly Increased Positions in Power Equipment, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - From the perspective of the quarterly change in the number of times funds held convertible bonds, in 25Q1, the number of times most industries were held decreased. Only the basic chemicals, steel, social services, communications, and petroleum and petrochemical industries had an increase in the total number of times held quarter - on - quarter. [5] - From the perspective of the quarterly change in the proportion of the market value of fund positions, the proportions of power equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and non - ferrous metals increased by 2.09, 1.48, and 1.35 percentage points respectively. A total of 16 industries had an increase in the proportion of the market value of positions. [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 62 CNY per share [2][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to recover as the industry is at the bottom of the cycle, with organic silicon likely to recover first [2][8]. - The company achieved a revenue of 26.692 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.41%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 33.64% to 1.740 billion CNY [2][8]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 5.228 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 3.47%, with a net profit of 260 million CNY, down 50.81% year-on-year [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the total revenue is projected at 26.692 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.4% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.740 billion CNY, reflecting a significant decline of 33.6% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 1.47 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35 [4]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 20.5% in 2024, with a net margin of 6.4% [4]. Industry Outlook - The industrial silicon sector is expected to see a recovery, with the company maintaining a cost advantage due to its self-sufficient power generation [8]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, including projects in Xinjiang and Yunnan, which are expected to enhance growth potential once the industry rebounds [8]. - The report anticipates that the organic silicon market will see price increases due to supply-demand optimization, with limited new capacity expected in the coming years [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, Huamao Technology (603306), with a target price of 46.99 CNY based on a projected 2025 PE of 26X [2][9]. Core Insights - Huamao Technology is positioned as a leading player in the automotive passive safety sector, with a dual growth strategy focusing on passive safety products and expanding into the AI hardware market through acquisitions [6][7]. - The company has a strong market presence in the automotive passive safety industry, with significant growth potential driven by increasing airbag installation rates and regulatory requirements [8][9]. - The acquisition of a 42.16% stake in Shenzhen Fuchuang Youyue, which specializes in optical communication modules and AI-related products, is expected to create a second growth curve for the company [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Automotive Passive Safety Leadership - Huamao Technology has developed into a leading enterprise in the automotive passive safety field since its establishment in 2002, with a product line that includes airbag fabric, airbag bags, and seat belts [6][14]. - The company has established long-term partnerships with major automotive manufacturers, ensuring a strong market share in China [6][8]. - The company is expanding its overseas operations, with a new production facility in Vietnam expected to contribute significantly to revenue starting in 2025 [6][19]. 2. AI Business Development - The report highlights the increasing demand for AI infrastructure, with major tech companies ramping up capital expenditures, which benefits Huamao's AI-related business initiatives [8][45]. - The acquisition of Fuchuang Youyue is a strategic move to tap into the high-growth optical communication and AI hardware markets, enhancing the company's competitive edge [6][8][18]. 3. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 2,213 million CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7%, and expects to reach 4,186 million CNY by 2027 [2][9]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 277 million CNY in 2024 to 934 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [2][9]. - The company's financial metrics indicate a healthy operating environment, with a projected PE ratio decreasing from 44 in 2024 to 13 in 2027, suggesting increasing valuation attractiveness [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the TAVR market, indicating a continued growth trajectory despite a slight slowdown in growth rates compared to previous years [13][18]. Core Insights - The TAVR market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected increase in the number of procedures performed, reaching 17,232 in 2024, a 14% increase from 2023 [13][14]. - Major players in the TAVR market include Peijia Medical, which has seen a significant increase in market share and revenue, and is expected to continue its growth trajectory [18][27]. - The report highlights the importance of product innovation and market expansion, with companies like Peijia Medical, HeartCare Medical, and Qiming Medical actively developing new TAVR systems to meet clinical needs [27][33]. Market Overview - The TAVR procedure is gaining traction in major provinces such as Shanghai, Sichuan, Beijing, and Guangdong, with the majority of procedures performed via the transfemoral approach [13][15]. - The report notes that the TAVR market in China has substantial room for growth, with current penetration rates being low compared to global standards [37][41]. Company Performance - Peijia Medical's revenue from TAVR procedures is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 84% from 2021 to 2024, and a market share of approximately 25% in 2024 [18][19]. - HeartCare Medical has maintained stable growth, while Qiming Medical is expected to recover and regain its leading position in the market [18][27]. Competitive Landscape - The report indicates that new entrants are continuously entering the TAVR market, which is expected to enhance competition and accelerate market development [37][41]. - The introduction of centralized procurement for TAVR products is anticipated to lower costs and improve market accessibility, potentially increasing the volume of procedures performed [41][42]. Future Outlook - The TAVR market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by increasing clinical adoption, product innovation, and favorable regulatory changes [10][41]. - The report emphasizes the need for companies to focus on both internal product development and external partnerships to expand their product offerings and market reach [27][33].

Valuation Factors - The report identifies that the EP, BP, and SP factors show strong predictive capabilities across different sample pools, while the PEG factor performs poorly [1][6][10] - The EP factor demonstrates significant returns, with notable performance across various industries, particularly in manufacturing [1][40] - The BP factor excels in asset-heavy industries such as utilities and finance, while the SP factor performs well in the TMT sector [1][40] Sources of Returns - The report states that the mispricing between valuation and fundamentals is the source of returns from valuation factors, with significant positive returns from low valuation-strong fundamentals combinations and negative returns from high valuation-weak fundamentals combinations [2][41][46] Long-term Effectiveness - Valuation factors are noted to be effective in the A-share market, although there is a potential for diminishing returns as the market becomes more institutionalized [3][59][75] - Historical data shows that the selected portfolios based on valuation factors achieved annualized returns of 14.87% in the CSI 800 and 19.11% in the CSI 1000, indicating the long-term effectiveness of these strategies [4][11] Industry Performance - The report highlights that the performance of valuation factors varies significantly across different industries, with the EP factor generally performing well across most sectors [40][41] - The BP factor shows strong performance in heavy asset industries, while the SP factor is particularly effective in the TMT sector [40][41] Investment Strategy - The report suggests constructing investment portfolios based on the mispricing of valuation and fundamentals, utilizing factors such as BP, EP, net profit growth rate, and ROE for selection [4][41][75] - The strategy emphasizes the importance of identifying undervalued stocks with strong fundamentals to achieve superior returns [7][75]