Group 1: Securities Industry - The report highlights a favorable configuration opportunity in the securities sector, driven by multiple factors including policy support for capital market development, increased market participation from institutions and residents, and a recovery in brokerage business lines [2][4]. - The current valuation and positioning of the brokerage sector are at mid-low levels since 2014, suggesting a high cost-performance investment opportunity [2][4]. Group 2: Nonferrous Metals Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments released a "Stabilization Growth Work Plan for the Nonferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026)", aiming to address resource security and demand issues, promoting stable operation and transformation of the industry [2][3]. - Short-term investment opportunities are expected in the recycling metals and copper smelting sectors, while long-term benefits are anticipated for domestic copper, aluminum, and lithium resource mining companies [2][3]. - Companies with extensive experience in copper, aluminum, and magnesium alloy processing are likely to benefit from the upgrading of materials in automotive and electronics sectors, leading to increased processing fees and profits [2][3]. Group 3: Banking Sector - The report indicates an improvement in the cost-performance ratio for quality banks, with some banks' dividend yields exceeding 5% [4]. - The banking sector is expected to see a recovery in core business profitability and asset quality, driven by policy focus on stabilizing interest margins and preventing tail risks [4]. - Recommended stocks include quality regional banks and those with stable dividends, such as Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [4]. Group 4: Power Equipment and New Energy - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a significant increase in production, with a projected output of 135.8 GWh in October, reflecting a 7.9% month-on-month increase [5]. - The demand for energy storage is expected to exceed expectations, driven by the domestic market and the electrification of commercial vehicles [5]. Group 5: Petrochemical Industry - The "Stabilization Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" aims to enhance high-end supply and regulate major project construction, which is expected to optimize supply in various sub-sectors [9]. - The report recommends companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Tongkun Co., Ltd. due to anticipated improvements in industry conditions and the development of high-end chemical materials [9]. Group 6: Company Ratings - Changfei Optical Fiber is rated "Buy" with a target price of 115.52 RMB, driven by its leading position in the optical fiber market and expected growth from AI infrastructure [12][14]. - The report also highlights the dual business strategy of Weigao Medical, projecting a return to normal operations in its consumer goods segment and continued growth in its medical segment [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the communication industry and communication equipment manufacturing sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing transformation in AI infrastructure, with a shift towards "super nodes" to address single-card computing limitations, and the adoption of liquid cooling technology [2][11]. - Alibaba's commitment to open ecosystems is emphasized, with the introduction of the Alink interconnection protocol, aiming to create a high-speed interconnected system [2][19]. - The launch of the flagship model Qwen3-Max by Alibaba demonstrates significant advancements in AI capabilities, expanding into multimodal functionalities [2][24][26]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The communication index decreased by 0.28% while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.06% [2][10]. Key Companies and Dynamics - The report recommends several companies for investment, including ZTE Corporation, StarNet, China Mobile, and others, focusing on AI computing power, core asset value reassessment, and new productivity sectors [3][4][61]. AI Infrastructure Developments - The report discusses the emergence of super nodes in AI infrastructure, which optimize computing, networking, storage, and power supply [11]. - Liquid cooling technology is becoming standard across various components, indicating a shift towards more efficient cooling solutions in data centers [14]. Ecosystem and Open Source Initiatives - Alibaba aims to build an open-source ecosystem akin to an "Android" for AI, promoting the Alink protocol to break existing technological barriers [19][20]. - The growth of a developer community around AI models is noted, with significant increases in model usage and the introduction of new development frameworks [20]. Model Advancements - The Qwen3-Max model is highlighted for its superior performance, with extensive training data and capabilities that surpass competitors in various benchmarks [25][26]. - The next-generation model Qwen3-Next is introduced, showcasing improvements in computational efficiency and multimodal capabilities [26]. Investment Recommendations - The report lists specific stocks with target prices and investment ratings, indicating a bullish outlook on companies like ZTE Corporation and China Mobile [4][61].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a rating of "Buy" and sets a target price of RMB 115.52 / HKD 64.12, corresponding to a 2026 PE of 54x / 27x [1][5][7]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in the optical fiber preform, fiber, and cable industry, maintaining the largest market share since 2016. The report anticipates a new growth cycle driven by the rapid development of AI computing infrastructure, with high demand for hollow-core fibers, multimode fibers, and ultra-low loss single-mode fibers [1][3][20]. - The optical fiber and cable industry is characterized by high barriers to entry, heavy manufacturing, and broad applications, with domestic manufacturers leading globally. The report expects a new growth cycle in the optical fiber industry, particularly in data communication driven by AI applications [2][16][18]. Company Analysis - The company occupies a dominant position in the global optical fiber preform, fiber, and cable industry. It is transitioning from a manufacturing-focused entity to a platform-based company, expanding both vertically and horizontally within the optical communication industry [3][20]. - The company has established eight overseas production bases, with overseas revenue accounting for 33.7% in 2024, indicating a strong international presence [3][18][20]. Industry Analysis - The report highlights a high demand for optical fibers in data centers, with a projected CAGR of 76.0% for AI application-related fiber demand from 2020 to 2029. The hollow-core fiber technology is expected to have significant development potential in various applications [2][17]. - The telecommunications sector in China is experiencing a slowdown in demand, while overseas 5G fixed network construction is expected to boost optical fiber exports [2][17]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 8.65 billion, RMB 16.21 billion, and RMB 23.92 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.96%, 87.48%, and 47.51% [5][10]. - The report uses a 2026 valuation framework, assigning a PE of 54x for A-shares and 27x for H-shares, reflecting the company's leading position in the optical fiber industry and its deep engagement in new fiber technologies [5][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - In the fourth week of September, the new - home market in the real estate sector heated up while the second - hand home market cooled down. The "Golden September" effect remains to be seen, but the year - on - year central value is positive, and the second - hand home market in first - tier cities has shown some repair after policy relaxation. Land transactions and premiums are at a low level. [2] - On the production side, freight volume in the industrial sector remains high, coal consumption per day continues to decline, and the industry's operating rates are differentiated. In the construction industry, cement supply and demand have slightly recovered, black supply and demand are weak, and asphalt operating rate has significantly increased. [2] - In terms of external demand, throughput year - on - year remains high, and freight rates have generally decreased month - on - month but recovered year - on - year. [2] - In the consumption sector, travel enthusiasm remains resilient, automobile consumption is basically flat, and National Day travel orders are booming. [2] - In terms of prices, crude oil is significantly affected by supply and geopolitical factors, black - series prices are generally strong, and copper prices have risen due to supply - expectation disturbances. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Consumption - Travel enthusiasm is differentiated. Subway travel has decreased, the congestion delay index has increased, and flight operation rates are lower than those of the same period last year. [3][7] - Automobile consumption is basically flat, textile consumption has recovered, and express delivery collection volume is at a high level. [3][8] - The National Day travel flow and orders are booming. New - type and cross - border tourism are on the rise, and consumption and prices may increase. [3][9] 2. Real Estate - New - home transaction heat has increased, with third - tier cities leading in structure. Second - hand home market heat has declined, and high - level cities' second - hand home markets have slightly cooled down. [6][11] - Second - hand home listing prices and volumes have both decreased. [6][12] - Land market premiums and transaction volumes are at a low level. [6][12] - Last week, real estate policies continued to strengthen on the demand side, including measures in Shanghai and Dongguan. [13] 3. Production - Coal consumption per day has decreased, hydropower generation remains high, and coal prices have increased. [14][15] - Construction industry funds in place have increased year - on - year, with a differentiation between housing construction and non - housing construction funds. [16] - Cement supply and demand have increased, inventory has increased, and prices have risen. Black supply and demand are weak, inventory has decreased, and prices are differentiated. Asphalt operating rate has increased, and prices have risen. PVC operating rate has increased, and styrene operating rate has decreased. [16][17] - Freight volume heat continues, and operating rates are differentiated between upstream and downstream. [18] 4. Construction Industry - Construction industry construction funds have increased year - on - year. [16] - Cement supply and demand have improved, with demand stronger than supply, inventory has increased, and prices have risen. Black supply and demand are weak, and asphalt operating rate has increased year - on - year. [4][16][17] 5. External Demand - Port cargo throughput and container throughput remain resilient. [4][19] - Freight rates: RJ/CRB year - on - year growth rate has decreased, BDI has recovered, international route freight rates have weakened, and domestic import freight rates have increased month - on - month. [4][19][20] - South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of September and Vietnam's exports in the first half of September have shown positive year - on - year growth. [4][19] - The preliminary values of the US Markit manufacturing and service PMI in September have declined, and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly fallen into the contraction range. [4][20] 6. Prices - The agricultural product index has increased, while the domestic Nanhua industrial product index and the external RJ/CRB index have decreased. [5] - Crude oil, coke, rebar, glass, and non - ferrous metal prices have increased, and iron ore prices have slightly decreased. [5][22][23]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market's expectation of the capital market is marginally cautious based on certificates of deposit (CDs) and interest rate swaps [1]. - The central bank's continuous "incremental renewal" of MLF for seven months indicates its care for the capital market, and it is expected that the cross - quarter liquidity will be generally stable, with the capital market likely to ease after the holiday [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs CDs and Interest Rate Swaps - Last week, the total maturity of CDs was 969.21 billion yuan, and the issuance was 791.87 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of - 177.34 billion yuan. As of the last trading day of last week, the 1 - year AAA CD maturity yield was 1.69%, up from the previous week. This week, the single - week maturity scale of CDs is about 168.84 billion yuan, with less maturity pressure than the previous week [1]. - In terms of interest rate swaps, the average value of the 1 - year FR007 interest rate swap last week was 1.57%, up from the previous week [1]. Repurchase Market - Last week, the pledged repurchase trading volume was between 6.7 trillion and 7.6 trillion yuan. The average R001 repurchase trading volume was 5.5536 trillion yuan, down 724.7 billion yuan from the previous week. As of the last trading day of last week, the outstanding repurchase balance was 12.2 trillion yuan, up from the previous week [2]. - By institution, the lending scale of large banks decreased, while that of money market funds increased. The borrowing scales of securities firms and funds decreased, while that of wealth management increased. As of Friday, the reverse repurchase balances of large banks and money market funds were 4.28 trillion yuan and 2.48 trillion yuan, down 110.3 billion yuan and up 145 billion yuan respectively from the previous week. The repurchase balances of securities firms, funds, and wealth management were 1.76 trillion yuan, 1.97 trillion yuan, and 867.5 billion yuan, down 30.7 billion yuan, 54.2 billion yuan, and up 122.8 billion yuan respectively from the previous week [2]. Bill and Exchange Rate - Last Friday, the 6M national stock bill transfer quotation was 0.85%, down from the last trading day of the previous week. The decline in bill interest rates indicates a decrease in credit demand and an increase in the demand for bill volume - boosting [3]. - Last Friday, the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.13, up from the previous week, and the Sino - US interest rate spread widened. Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped to the lowest level since July. The US also announced the PCE price index for August, showing that the increase in personal consumption expenditure in August exceeded expectations, and the basic inflation pressure remained stable [3]. Capital Market and Policy - Last week, the open market had a maturity of 2.1268 trillion yuan, including 1.8268 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase maturity and 300 billion yuan of MLF maturity. The open market made a total investment of 3.0674 trillion yuan, including 1.5674 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase, 900 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase, and 600 billion yuan of MLF, with a net investment of 940.6 billion yuan [6]. - Last week, the capital market was generally tight. The average DR007 was 1.54%, up 2BP from the previous week; the average R007 was 1.62%, up 10BP from the previous week; the average DR001 and R001 were 1.41% and 1.46% respectively. The exchange repurchase interest rate increased, with the average GC007 at 1.82%, up 29BP from the previous week. As of the last trading day of last week, the outstanding balance of reverse repurchase was 2.4674 trillion yuan, up from the previous week [6]. This Week's Focus - This week, the open - market capital maturity is 516.6 billion yuan, all of which are reverse repurchase maturities [4]. - On Monday, the eurozone's economic sentiment index for September will be announced; on Tuesday, China's official manufacturing PMI for September will be announced; on Wednesday, the eurozone's harmonized CPI for September will be announced; on Friday, the US non - farm payroll data for September will be announced. There may also be a Politburo meeting this week [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The release of the Fixed Income and Money Market Development Roadmap in Hong Kong is beneficial to the dim - sum bond market. Policy support may boost the issuance activity of dim - sum bonds, and attention should be paid to the allocation opportunities of new supplies in 1 - 3 years [1][23] Summary According to Related Catalogs Hong Kong Releases Fixed Income and Money Market Roadmap, Beneficial to Dim - sum Bonds - On September 25, 2025, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority jointly released the "Fixed Income and Money Market Development Roadmap", aiming to make Hong Kong a global fixed - income and currency hub [8] - The roadmap proposes ten measures around four aspects: bond issuance, liquidity, offshore RMB business, and infrastructure. For example, in bond issuance, it includes issuing government bonds, promoting Hong Kong's advantages to target markets, and expanding the investor base [8] - As of September 22, 2025, the issuance amount of Chinese dim - sum bonds this year was 4879.85 billion yuan, basically the same as the same period last year. The first - time issuance scale of dim - sum bonds was 966.69 billion yuan, accounting for about 20% of the total issuance scale [11] - Newly issued dim - sum bonds are mainly industrial bonds, followed by urban investment bonds. About half of the maturities are 3 - year bonds, and the issuance amount of ESG dim - sum bonds accounts for nearly 20%. The coupon rate is mostly between 1 - 3%, and the short - term coupon rate is higher [13][16][17][19] Market Review: Bond Funds Sell Medium - and Long - Term Credit Bonds, Credit Bond Yields Rise Across the Board - From September 19 to September 26, 2025, the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees were negative for the bond market. Bond funds sold 110 billion yuan of 1 - 5Y credit bonds throughout the week, and the yields of credit bonds rose across the board, with the supplementary decline of secondary and perpetual bonds being more obvious [2][24] - The yields of general credit bonds rose by 4 - 12BP, and the yields of medium - and long - term bonds rose by more than 6BP. The yields of secondary and perpetual bonds generally rose by 5 - 18BP, and the yields of medium - and long - term bonds rose by more than 10BP [2][24] - Last week, the buying demand weakened. Wealth management products had a net purchase of 166 billion yuan, and funds had a net purchase of 70 billion yuan. The scale of credit bond ETFs was 3642 billion yuan, a 2.22% increase compared with the previous week [2][24] Primary Issuance: Net Financing of Credit Bonds Declines Month - on - Month, and Most Issuance Interest Rates Rise - From September 22 to September 26, 2025, the total issuance of corporate credit bonds was 428.4 billion yuan, a 25% month - on - month increase; the total issuance of financial credit bonds was 132.8 billion yuan, a 36% month - on - month decrease [3][52] - The total net financing of corporate credit bonds was 69.5 billion yuan, a 35% month - on - month decrease. Among them, urban investment bonds had a repayment of 9.1 billion yuan, and industrial bonds had a net financing of 74.2 billion yuan. Financial credit bonds had a total net repayment of 84.6 billion yuan [3][52] - In terms of issuance interest rates, the average issuance interest rate of medium - and short - term notes showed an upward trend except for AAA, and the average issuance interest rate of corporate bonds showed an upward trend except for AA [3][52] Secondary Trading: Medium - and Short - Term Maturities Are Actively Traded, and Long - Term Maturities Remain at a Low Level - Active trading entities are mainly medium - and high - grade, medium - and short - term, central and state - owned enterprises [4][62] - For urban investment bonds, active trading entities are mainly from strong economic and financial provinces and relatively high - spread areas in large economic provinces. Real estate bonds and private enterprise bonds' active trading entities are still mainly AAA, and the trading maturities are mostly medium - and short - term [4][62] - There were no transactions of urban investment bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years among actively traded bonds, which was the same as the previous week [4][62]

今日早参 2025 年 9 月 29 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：日本自民党总裁选举前瞻及影响 首相石破茂宣布辞职后，日本自民党于 9 月 22 日启动总裁选举，投票将于 10 月 4 日进行。目前已有五位国会议员宣布参选，其中小泉进次郎和高市早 苗的支持率相对领先。考虑到自民党执政联盟已失去参众两院的多数席位、 且国内对财政刺激的呼声较大，新一任首相的政治与经济主张可能对日本的 政经形势产生深远影响。本文将探讨此次自民党总裁选举的可能结果、候选 人的政策主张以及选举对日本市场的潜在影响。 风险提示：政治选举期可能引发日本市场大幅波动；执政联盟不稳的风险； 选举结果超市场预期的风险。 研报发布日期：2025-09-28 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 胡李鹏 SAC:S0570525010001 SFC:BWA860 陈玮 SAC:S0570524030003 SFC:BVH374 宏观：低基数推动 8 月工企利润同比回升 8 月工业企业利润数据点评 今年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [2] Core Views - The cost-effectiveness of bank allocations has improved, with a significant number of quality banks offering dividend yields exceeding 5% for 2025 [5][10] - The banking sector is expected to see a recovery in market allocation demand in Q4, driven by calendar effects and a potential shift towards safer investments [5][10] - Core business profitability is improving under supportive policies, with a narrowing decline in net interest income for listed banks [6][10] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The banking sector is rated as "Buy" for several key banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) with a target price of 7.88 HKD, Chengdu Bank at 23.33 CNY, and Shanghai Bank at 12.02 CNY [4] Market Trends - The banking index has experienced a maximum drawdown of approximately 15% since July, with the PB ratio falling to 0.62x, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [5][11] - The report highlights that 37 A-share banks have fallen below their six-month moving average, with 14 below their annual moving average, suggesting a potential buying opportunity [5] Performance Outlook - The report anticipates that insurance capital, industrial capital, and foreign investment will become significant incremental allocation sources for the banking sector [7] - The report notes that the banking sector's dividend payout capabilities are stable, making them attractive to long-term investors [7] Economic Indicators - The report discusses the impact of interest rate increases on bank performance, suggesting that banks may buffer non-interest income pressures through realized gains [8][10] - It emphasizes that if the economy enters an upward cycle, rising interest rates could positively impact net interest income and overall bank profitability [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and basic chemical sectors [6]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in prosperity due to the implementation of the "Stabilization Growth Work Plan" for 2025-2026, which aims to enhance high-end supply and optimize capacity in various sub-sectors [1][2]. - The report highlights the importance of controlling new capacity for key products such as refining, ethylene, PX, and coal-to-methanol, which is anticipated to improve the supply structure [2]. - The focus on fertilizer production stability and the development of new types of fertilizers is expected to continue, with recommendations for companies in this sector [3]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of new materials and emerging technologies in the chemical industry, driven by policy support for high-end supply and digital transformation [4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Growth Policies - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a plan to stabilize growth in the petrochemical industry, focusing on high-end supply and project management [1]. - The plan includes measures to enhance supply optimization and support the development of high-end chemical materials in electronics, new energy, and medical equipment [1]. Section 2: Capacity Control and Supply Optimization - The plan specifies strict control over new refining capacity and reasonable planning for the addition of ethylene, PX, and coal-to-methanol capacities, supporting the replacement and upgrading of old facilities [2]. - In 2024, China's refining, PX, and methanol capacities are projected to decrease by 1%, remain unchanged, and increase by 2% respectively, indicating a significant slowdown in capacity growth [2]. Section 3: Fertilizer Production Stability - The plan aims to optimize the production management of key fertilizer companies and ensure stable raw material supply through long-term contracts [3]. - The report notes that the prices of some upstream raw materials have risen significantly, which may impact fertilizer production [3]. Section 4: Development of New Materials and Technologies - The report anticipates accelerated development of high-end chemical materials and emerging technologies, including carbon capture and green ammonia applications [4]. - It encourages the development of new materials in sectors such as integrated circuits, new energy, and medical devices, with a focus on innovation and domestic substitution [4]. Section 5: Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their potential to benefit from the outlined policies, including: - **Buy**: Yun Tianhua, Dongcai Technology, Hualu Hengsheng, and Luxi Chemical [7]. - **Overweight**: Hengli Petrochemical, Huayi Group, Tongkun Co., Guangwei Composite, Xinfeng Group, and Wanwei High-tech [7].

量价因子有所回暖，1000 指增强势 2025 年 9 月 28 日│中国内地 量化投资周报 证券研究报告 本月以来换手率因子多空收益领跑 从因子多空组合收益的平均水平来看，本月以来换手率因子多空收益领跑， 在中证 1000 和全 A 股股票池中表现尤为突出；预期净利润增速因子次之， 整体呈现较可观的多空收益。盈利和成长因子同样呈现正向的平均多空收 益，但较前者有较大差距。其余因子均呈现负向的平均多空收益，其中反转、 估值和小市值因子多空收益较为落后。 本月以来中证 1000 指增基金超额收益保持领先 我们重点跟踪以沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 和中证 A500 指数为基准 的量化指数增强基金。基于公募指增基金的复权净值曲线表现来看，本月以 来各类指增基金超额收益呈现分化。从中位数层面来看，中证 1000 指增基 金表现保持领先，呈现较明显的正超额；其余指增基金的超额收益中位数均 呈现负值，整体表现平淡。从今年以来的整体表现来看，中证 1000 指增基 金超额领先，中证 A500 指增基金次之。 风险提示：量化基金的业绩受到多种因素影响，包括环境、政策、基金管理 人变化等，过去业绩好的基金不代表 ...