Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor sector, particularly on premium brands like Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while also highlighting the potential of other brands such as Wuliangye and Jinjing Wine [2][7]. Core Insights - The liquor market is undergoing a restructuring phase, with expectations of a double-digit decline in sales year-on-year for Q1 2026, but a potential stabilization in Q2 and a turning point in Q3 [2][7]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the liquor sector by the end of 2026 and into 2027, driven by improved fundamentals and valuation [2][7]. - The consumer goods sector is showing structural improvements, with competition shifting from price to quality, leading to a gradual balance in supply and demand [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.41% last week, with liquor down 2.80%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.25 percentage points [6]. - Notable stock performances included a 19.59% increase for Haoxiangni and a 14.32% rise for Wancheng Group [6]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The report highlights the price stability of Moutai, with a current price of 1560 RMB per bottle, up 20 RMB from the previous week, indicating a positive trend in pricing [8][27]. - The report notes that Moutai's pricing has found a bottom, reducing downward risks significantly, and anticipates a potential increase in sales volume as the Spring Festival approaches [8]. 3. Industry Events and Updates - The report mentions the upcoming IPO of Mingming Hen Mang, a leading snack retail chain, which is expected to catalyze the snack sector [10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain management and digitalization in enhancing competitive advantages for companies like Mingming Hen Mang [10]. 4. Valuation Table - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE is currently at 19.27x, with a premium rate of 10%, while the liquor sector's dynamic PE stands at 17.50x, indicating a zero premium [27].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the pharmaceutical sector, with a focus on investment opportunities in the CXO segment and AI pharmaceutical development [2][3]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector's performance has been mixed, with the Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index declining by 0.4% while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84% [4][6]. - The report highlights the ongoing transformation in China's pharmaceutical retail industry, emphasizing the shift from traditional drug sales to comprehensive health services, supported by government initiatives [13][14]. - New drug development remains active, with several significant clinical trial applications and promising results from innovative therapies, particularly in oncology and AI-driven drug discovery [15][16][17]. Market Performance - The Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index ranked 27th among 31 Shenwan first-level sub-industries, with a current overall valuation of 30.3 times earnings, placing it 12th among all first-level industries [4][6]. - Various sub-sectors showed differing performance, with raw materials (+2.4%) and offline pharmacies (+9.7%) performing well, while medical research outsourcing (-4.0%) and chemical preparations (-1.7%) faced declines [6][8]. Recent Key Events - The report notes the significant population dynamics in China, with a total population of approximately 1.40489 billion by the end of 2025, which continues to support economic growth [12]. - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued guidelines to promote high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail sector, focusing on enhancing service capabilities and optimizing industry structure [13][14]. - Several companies, including BaiLi Tianheng and Moderna, have made strides in drug development, with notable advancements in cancer therapies and AI applications in pharmaceuticals [15][16][17]. Company Dynamics - The report identifies several companies with promising performance forecasts for 2025, including WuXi AppTec, Kanglong Chemical, and Tigermed, highlighting their potential as investment targets [23][26]. - The AI healthcare platform OpenEvidence successfully raised $250 million in Series D funding, reflecting strong growth and increasing adoption among healthcare professionals [23][24].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing competition in the AI application space, with major companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance vying for dominance in the domestic AI super entrance battle. This competition is expected to drive up transaction sentiment in AI applications [4][6]. - Pop Mart's recent buybacks and the success of its PUCKY "electronic wooden fish" and Valentine's Day series have alleviated market concerns about its reliance on the Labubu IP. The company's multi-IP strategy and global channel expansion are seen as key to its success [4][6]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is anticipated to boost the film and gaming sectors, with several films scheduled for release and optimistic expectations for AI-integrated content production [4][6]. Summary by Sections AI Applications - The report notes a resurgence in AI application interest, with significant developments from companies like Baidu and Alibaba. The competition among major players is expected to catalyze growth in AI applications [4][6]. Pop Mart - Pop Mart has executed two buybacks totaling approximately 350 million HKD, and the strong sales of its new products have reduced market fears regarding its IP dependency. The company's strategy of expanding its IP portfolio and global reach is validated [4][6]. Film and Gaming - The report outlines several films set for release during the Spring Festival, including "Flying Life 3" and "Biao Ren: Wind Rises in the Desert." The integration of AI in content production is expected to enhance the industry's growth, with projections indicating that the AI comic market could reach 22 billion RMB by 2026 [4][6]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating their market capitalization, revenue forecasts, and profit margins. For instance, Tencent's market cap is 48,677 million RMB, with projected revenues of 8,453 million RMB for 2026, reflecting a 12% year-over-year growth [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Merchants Bank, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [8]. Core Insights - The bank's revenue for 2025 is projected to be RMB 337.5 billion, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.01% [6][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 150.2 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.2% [6][8]. - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains stable at 0.94% for the fourth quarter of 2025, with a provision coverage ratio of 392% [6][8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at RMB 337.5 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.01% [7]. - Net interest income is projected to grow by 2% in 2025, contributing to the overall revenue stability [8]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline to 13.43% in 2025, down from 14.49% in 2024 [7][12]. - The provision coverage ratio is forecasted to decrease to 391.79% by 2026, indicating a potential increase in credit risk [7][12]. - The bank's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 5.70 in 2025, with a gradual increase to RMB 6.07 by 2027 [7][12]. Market Position and Valuation - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for China Merchants Bank is 0.76, suggesting that the stock is undervalued relative to its book value [8]. - The dividend yield is approximately 5.4%, which is attractive for income-focused investors [9][8]. - The bank's stock performance is influenced by broader market trends, particularly in the context of index fund flows [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local bonds in the current period have increased month-on-month, and it is expected that the issuance and net financing of local bonds in the next period will rise significantly month-on-month [2] - The issuance progress of new general bonds this year is slower than the same period in previous years, but the issuance of new special bonds has significantly accelerated since late January [2] - The planned issuance scale of local bonds in Q1 2026 is equivalent to that in the same period in 2025. The issuance of refinancing bonds in Q1 2026 may be similar to that in Q1 2025, with the front-loading of refinancing bond issuance boosting the increase in local bond issuance, but the proportion of refinancing general bonds is relatively higher than in 2025. The planned issuance scale is larger in January and March 2026 compared to previous years [2] - The current 10Y local bonds still have certain cost-effectiveness [2] Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local bonds in the current period has increased, and the weighted issuance term has shortened - The total issuance/net financing of local bonds in the current period (January 19 - January 25, 2026) is 231.57 billion yuan/203.16 billion yuan (74.841 billion yuan/68.566 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance/net financing in the next period (January 26 - February 1, 2026) is 439.275 billion yuan/310.854 billion yuan [2] - The weighted issuance term of local bonds in the current period is 15.88 years, shorter than 19.45 years in the previous period (January 12 - January 18, 2026) [2] - As of January 23, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounts for 2.7% and 4.0% of the annual quota respectively, and 7.6% and 8.4% considering the expected issuance in the next period [2] - The planned issuance scale of local bonds in Q1 2026 is 235.87 billion yuan, equivalent to that in the same period in 2025. The issuance of refinancing bonds in Q1 2026 may be similar to that in Q1 2025, with the front-loading of refinancing bond issuance boosting the increase in local bond issuance, but the proportion of refinancing general bonds is relatively higher than in 2025. The planned issuance scale is larger in January and March 2026 compared to previous years [2] - The special new special bonds in the current period issued 6.3 billion yuan, and the special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts issued 102.3 billion yuan and 0 billion yuan respectively [2] 2. The spread between local bonds and national bonds in the current period has narrowed for 10Y and 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate has increased month-on-month - As of January 23, 2026, the spreads between 10-year and 30-year local bonds and national bonds are 21.02BP and 14.29BP respectively, narrowing by 0.74BP and 3.35BP compared to January 16, 2026, and are at the 60.70% and 50.50% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2] - The weekly turnover rate of local bonds in the current period is 0.66%, up from 0.64% in the previous period [2] - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local bonds in regions such as Liaoning, Ningbo, and Guizhou are better than the national average [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable recovery in demand, with oil prices expected to remain in a range of $55-70 per barrel due to OPEC+ production delays and improved global economic conditions [4][5]. - The report highlights a recovery in spandex prices, an ongoing improvement in titanium dioxide supply and demand, and an anticipated acceleration in dye supply clearance [4][5]. - The investment strategy suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy, including textiles, agriculture, and export chains, with specific company recommendations provided [4][5]. Industry Dynamics - Oil: OPEC+ has delayed production increases, and shale oil production has peaked, leading to a slowdown in supply growth. Demand is stabilizing with improved global economic conditions [5]. - Spandex: The overall operating rate in the spandex industry has increased from 79% to 87%, with prices rising by 1,000 CNY per ton as of January 20, 2026 [4][5]. - Titanium Dioxide: The closure of production facilities by major companies is expected to improve profitability, with recommendations to focus on leading companies in this sector [4][5]. - Dyes: The price of core intermediates for disperse dyes has increased by over 50%, indicating a potential industry clearance [4][5]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests a diversified investment approach across various chains, including textiles, agriculture, and export-related chemicals, with specific companies highlighted for potential growth [4][20]. - Key materials for semiconductor and panel manufacturing are emphasized, with recommendations for companies involved in these sectors [4][5]. - The report also notes the importance of focusing on companies that can achieve self-sufficiency in critical materials [4][5].

相关研究 证券分析师 2026 年 01 月 25 日 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 地缘紧张避险升温，金属价格强势 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260119-20260123 本期投资提示： 有色金属 究 / 行 业 点 评 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行业点评 1．一周行情回顾 据 iFind，总体看，环比上周，上证指数上涨 0.84%，深证成指上涨 1.11%，沪深 300 下跌 0.62%，有色金属（申万）指数上涨 6.03%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 6.65 个百分点； 20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, small and micro-cap stocks have been active. Despite policy cooling signals, they still benefit from loose liquidity. The CSI 2000 and Wind Small and Micro-cap Index have led the gains, which is suitable for the convertible bond style. The underlying stocks of convertible bonds have risen significantly, and the convertible bonds have simultaneously increased in valuation. Valuation indicators such as the convertible bond's 100-yuan premium rate and median price have reached new highs since 2017. Structurally, the price ranges of 130 - 140 yuan and above 150 yuan have shown strong performance. High-parity convertible bonds remain active, while newly issued convertible bonds have relatively poor performance. Currently, the bull market expectation in the equity market is relatively consistent, with high capital activity. Convertible bonds are experiencing a "double hit" market of parity and valuation. However, in the state of strong equity characteristics and high conversion premium rates, it is still necessary to beware of the forced redemption risk of individual bonds [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Outlook - Small and micro-cap stocks are active, and convertible bonds are in a "double hit" market of parity and valuation. However, the forced redemption risk of individual bonds needs to be watched out for [1][2]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, the underlying stocks of convertible bonds performed actively, and the convertible bonds rose synchronously. The 100-yuan premium rate increased by 0.9% to 33.5%, reaching the 100th percentile since 2017. Currently, the 100-yuan premium rate of convertible bonds is still above the 2 - standard deviation [3]. - The valuations of convertible bonds in each parity range have increased significantly. The valuation increase in the equity - biased area is slightly higher than that in the debt - biased area, but the overall gap has narrowed compared with the previous period. The valuation in the 120 - 140 yuan parity range has increased significantly, mainly due to the significant increase in the activity of the underlying stocks. The valuation in the parity range above 140 yuan has only increased slightly, mainly due to the disturbance of forced redemption [7]. - From the perspective of individual bonds, in the high - parity area, Xinfu and Yinbang have entered the forced redemption process, and the expectation of forced redemption has increased, resulting in a relatively large decline in the conversion premium rate. Shuangliang, Hebang, Ruike, Zhoubang, Hengshuai, and Daimei have significantly increased their valuations due to the obvious rise of their underlying stocks. The valuations in the balanced and debt - biased areas have generally increased slightly. The valuations of near - maturity convertible bonds are weak. In addition, the valuation of the newly issued Anke convertible bond is slowly shrinking due to the weak performance of its underlying stock [8]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, Tianjian, Fuli, Sailong, Shentong, Beigang, and Huazheng convertible bonds announced redemptions, and 2 convertible bonds announced non - redemptions, with a forced redemption rate of 75%. Currently, there are 49 convertible bonds in the redemption process. Next week, 8 are expected to meet the redemption conditions, and 10 are expected to issue announcements of potential redemption triggers. In addition, 26 convertible bonds are expected to enter the forced redemption counting period within the next month [1][17][19]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Hongchuan convertible bond proposed a downward revision, and Fangyuan convertible bond announced the downward revision result (not revised to the bottom). As of now, 101 convertible bonds are in the temporary non - downward revision range, 20 convertible bonds cannot be downward - revised due to net asset constraints, 1 convertible bond has triggered the condition and the stock price is still lower than the downward - revision trigger price but no announcement has been made, 16 convertible bonds are accumulating downward - revision days, and 3 convertible bonds have issued downward - revision board plans but have not yet gone to the general meeting of shareholders [1][23]. 3.3.3 Put Option - This week, no convertible bonds issued conditional put option announcements. As of now, 3 convertible bonds are accumulating put option trigger days, among which 1 convertible bond proposed a downward revision, and 2 convertible bonds are in the temporary non - downward revision range [1][27]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - As of now, there are 10 convertible bonds in the process of consent registration, with a to - be - issued scale of 8.8 billion yuan, and no convertible bonds are in the process of passing the listing committee [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Merchants Bank (招商银行) [3] Core Insights - The bank's revenue for 2025 is projected to be RMB 337.5 billion, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.01% [6][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 150.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.2% [6][8] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains stable at 0.94%, with a provision coverage ratio decreasing by 14 percentage points to 392% [6][8] - The report highlights a recovery in core revenue, particularly in net interest income, which is expected to grow by 2% in 2025 [8] - The bank's stock price is currently trading at a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.76, with a dividend yield of approximately 5.4%, indicating strong value [8][9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total operating income is projected to be RMB 337.5 billion for 2025, with a slight increase expected in subsequent years [7] - The net interest income is forecasted to be RMB 215.6 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 2% [7][13] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline to 13.43% in 2025, down from 14.49% in 2024 [7][13] - The report anticipates a gradual increase in net profit growth rates for 2025-2027, with estimates of 1.2%, 2.5%, and 3.6% respectively [8][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting the potential for growth in high-performance outdoor brands and the non-woven fabric sector [21]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 4.5% from January 19 to January 23, 2026, surpassing the SW All A index by 2.7 percentage points [3][4]. - The report anticipates a recovery in domestic demand in 2026, with a focus on high-growth areas such as high-performance outdoor brands and discount retail [16]. - The report notes a divergence in brand performance, with high-end outdoor and niche sports brands showing strong potential, while overall industry growth is expected to slow due to warm winter temperatures and delayed Spring Festival [10][12]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - The report indicates that the demand for Australian wool is expected to rise due to a decrease in supply and an increase in demand for sports wool apparel, with prices reaching 1137 cents per kilogram, a 54% year-on-year increase [9][15]. - The non-woven fabric industry is projected to benefit from quality upgrades and expanding demand, with companies like Sturdy, Yanjiang, and Nuobang expected to maintain rapid growth [12][14]. Apparel Sector - Anta and Xtep reported their Q4 2025 operational data, with Anta's main brand experiencing a slight decline in retail sales, while FILA showed mid-single-digit growth, exceeding expectations [10][18]. - The report highlights that the overall apparel sector is facing challenges due to warm weather and the timing of the Spring Festival, but anticipates improved sales as temperatures drop and the holiday extends [10][11]. Industry Performance - The report provides insights into the overall performance of the textile and apparel industry, noting a 3.9% year-on-year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods in 2025, with the apparel and textile category growing by 3.2% [33]. - Exports of textiles and apparel saw a decline of 2.6% year-on-year, with December exports dropping by 7.4%, indicating a need for strategic adjustments in response to global market conditions [39]. Company-Specific Insights - Anta's overall revenue is expected to achieve double-digit growth, driven by a strong multi-brand strategy, despite some challenges in its main brand performance [21][18]. - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the women's apparel segment, with brands like Ge Li Si and Di Su showing signs of improvement after a period of adjustment [11][12].