2025 年 12 月 20 日 中核水电 REIT 认购倍数续创新高 公募 REITs 周度跟踪（2025.12.15-2025.12.19） 《板块分化调整,中核水电 REIT 即 -公募 REITs 周度跟踪 十1日 17 2025.12.8-2025.12.12) 》 2025/12/13 《新版行业清单出炉 , 基础设施 公募 REITs 周 REITs 再扩围! · 度跟踪 (2025.12.1-2025.12.5)》 2025/12/06 《里程碑! REITs 即将迈入商业不 动产新时代一 一公募 REITs 周度跟 踪 (2025.11.24-2025.11.28)》 2025/11/29 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 研究支持 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务 请务必仔细阅读正文 ...

2025 年 12 月 20 日 非主战场的春季躁动 申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/12/15-25/12/20) 相关研究 证券分析师 博静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 干胜 A0230511060001 wangshenq@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 一、日央行鸽派加息，美联储非鹰派降息，下一任美联储主席人选必须"超级鸽派"。12 ● 月全球货币政策关键验证期，有望平稳收官。美国中期选举年，货币 + 财政双宽重新成 为主导资产定价的预期。 A 股面临的海外环境可能趋于平稳。 12 月全球货币政策关键验证期,有望平稳收官。后续,美国中期选举年,货币 + 财政双 O 宽的中期预期，可能重新主导资产定价。增量财政发力的窗口期，可能在美国政府关门问 题解决后，2026年 2 月后才是观察期。A 股面临的海外环 ...

Key Points Summary Core Viewpoints - The global monetary policy is entering a critical verification period in December, with expectations for a smooth conclusion. The U.S. midterm election year is likely to see a return of both monetary and fiscal easing as dominant factors in asset pricing, potentially stabilizing the overseas environment for A-shares [4][5][9]. - Spring liquidity in the stock market remains ample, with high-net-worth investors reallocating to private equity and significant net subscriptions for the CSI 300 and A500 ETFs. Key windows for stabilizing capital market expectations include the upcoming Chinese New Year, the Two Sessions in March, and a potential visit from Trump in April [4][5][9]. - The spring market may face upward resistance, with market styles reverting to pre-October conditions and limited upward space. The focus may shift to non-main battlefield themes such as industrial and policy themes, high-dividend plays, and various rebound opportunities [5][9]. Market Environment - The Bank of Japan's dovish rate hike of 25 basis points aligns with expectations, while the Federal Reserve's non-hawkish stance on rate cuts suggests a stable capital market environment ahead. The U.S. midterm elections may lead to renewed monetary and fiscal easing, impacting asset pricing [4][5]. - The spring market is characterized by ample liquidity, with private equity fund management scales increasing significantly in October. Insurance products are expected to perform well, and there is a notable increase in net subscriptions for major ETFs [4][5][9]. Investment Strategy - The medium-term outlook remains a "two-stage bull market" scenario, with the first stage (2025) already at a high level and currently in a phase of high-level fluctuations. The second stage (2026) is anticipated to be driven by fundamental improvements, technological trends, and increased asset allocation towards equities [9]. - The spring market is expected to see active themes in commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, service consumption, and robotics, with high-dividend assets showing strong short-term value. The focus for cyclical investments will likely remain on industrial metals and basic chemicals [9].

2025 年 12 月 20 日 中核水电 REIT 认购倍数续创新高 ——公募 REITs 周度跟踪（2025.12.15-2025.12.19） 相关研究 《板块分化调整，中核水电 REIT 即 将询价——公募 REITs 周度跟踪 （2025.12.8-2025.12.12）》 2025/12/13 《新版行业清单出炉，基础设施 REITs 再扩围！——公募 REITs 周 度跟踪（2025.12.1-2025.12.5）》 2025/12/06 《里程碑！REITs 即将迈入商业不 动产新时代——公募 REITs 周度跟 踪（2025.11.24-2025.11.28）》 2025/11/29 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 研究支持 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 债 券 研 究 ⚫ 指数下破 1000 点，而中核水电 REI ...

2025 年 12 月 20 日 蘅东光（920045）：光通信领域无源 光器件"小巨人" ——北交所新股申购策略报告之一百五十三 本期投资提示： - 证券分析师 刘靖 A0230512070005 liujing@swsresearch.com 汪秉涵 A0230525090003 wangbh@swsresearch.com 研究支持 汪秉涵 A0230525090003 wangbh@swsresearch.com 联系人 汪秉涵 A0230525090003 wangbh@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 研 究 申 购 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 ⚫ 基本面：深耕光通信领域，前瞻布局 CPO 无源内连光器件。公司成立于 2011 年 9 月 1 日，位于广东省深圳市，主要从事光通信领域无源光器件产品的研发、制造与销售，为深 圳市"瞪羚企业"和国家级专精特新"小巨人"，业务包括无源光纤布线、无源内连光器 件及相关配套 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has completed the issuance of convertible bonds, raising a total of 828 million yuan, with 688 million yuan allocated to the "Dingjie Intelligent Ecosystem Empowerment Platform Project" and 140 million yuan for working capital [4] - The project aims to establish an ecosystem empowerment platform, focusing on various technological components to enhance AI commercialization [6] - The projected average annual revenue from the platform is approximately 701 million yuan, with an internal rate of return of 12.57% and a payback period of about 8.64 years [6] - The company has integrated AI applications into multiple product systems, enhancing its offerings in key business areas [6] - The manufacturing sector's AI agents are expected to see rapid growth due to high customer willingness to pay and a rich customer resource base [6] - The company forecasts revenues of 2.625 billion yuan, 3.044 billion yuan, and 3.606 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 209 million yuan, 252 million yuan, and 312 million yuan for the same years [5][6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 2,625 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.6% [5] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 209 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.4% [5] - The company expects a gross margin of 60.1% in 2025, increasing to 62.5% by 2027 [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 8.7% in 2025, rising to 10.9% by 2027 [5]

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 农林牧渔 2025 年 12 月 19 日 欧福蛋业 (920371) ——开创并引领中国蛋品加工业，有望继续领跑行业成长 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： 2025 年 12 月 18 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 10.92 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 18.40/6.50 | | 市净率 | 3.8 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.92 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 2,114 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,876.37/13,053.97 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 2.91 | | 资产负债率% | 19.51 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 205/194 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -100% 0% 100% 200% 12-18 01-18 02-18 03- ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the unmanned cargo industry is entering a high-growth phase, driven by the dual forces of technological maturity and policy support [3][4]. Core Insights - The unmanned cargo sector benefits from inherent advantages such as predictable paths and controllable environments, which lower the barriers to the implementation of unmanned driving technology compared to manned scenarios [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies that establish technological moats and possess scalable operational experience within specific segments of the unmanned cargo market [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Unmanned Cargo: Diverse Application Scenarios, Driven by Technology and Policy - Unmanned driving scenarios can be categorized into manned and unmanned, with unmanned scenarios covering various fields such as logistics and special operations [9]. - The complexity of unmanned cargo scenarios is generally lower than that of manned scenarios, providing a natural advantage for technology implementation [11]. 2. Low-Speed Unmanned Vehicles: High Technological Maturity and Rapid Expansion - Low-speed unmanned vehicles, particularly in logistics and sanitation, have reached a high level of technological maturity and are transitioning from pilot projects to large-scale deliveries [4][5]. - Companies like Jiushi Intelligent and New Stone have achieved deliveries at the scale of thousands of units [4]. 3. High-Speed Unmanned Trucks: Addressing Long-Distance Freight Pain Points - High-speed unmanned trucks are still in the early stages of development but have significant market potential due to their ability to reduce labor costs and improve operational efficiency [4][5]. 4. Special Scenario Unmanned Vehicles: Low Overlap Among Players, Environmental Adaptation Creates Barriers - The special scenario unmanned vehicle market, such as unmanned mining trucks and port vehicles, has a relatively concentrated market structure with high specialization [4][5]. - The demand for unmanned mining trucks is driven by harsh environments and safety pressures, while port scenarios are evolving from early reliance on infrastructure to more flexible solutions [4]. 5. Policy Framework: Accelerating Transition from Pilot to Commercial Operations - The report outlines a comprehensive policy framework that supports the unmanned cargo sector, including national and local government initiatives aimed at facilitating the transition from laboratory validation to real-world commercial operations [21][24]. - Recent policies have focused on establishing demonstration application scenarios and refining testing standards to promote the commercial viability of unmanned cargo solutions [21][24].

Group 1: Higher Education Sector - The higher education sector is expected to see a reversal of difficulties due to a combination of bottoming fundamentals and policy advancements, with a focus on improving educational quality and encouraging the expansion of high-quality private colleges [5][6] - The reintroduction of profit-oriented classification management in Hunan Province in 2025 may serve as a pilot for nationwide implementation, providing a stable policy environment for private colleges to expand and meet the growing demand for higher education [5][6] - Key indicators of educational quality, such as student-to-teacher ratios and per-student funding, have met standards after five years of increased investment, suggesting that the investment cycle is peaking and operational efficiency in higher education companies is likely to recover [5][6] - Companies to watch in this sector include Yuhua Education, Zhongjiao Holdings, New Higher Education, China Kepei, Neusoft Ruixin, Xijiao International Holdings, and Zhonghui Group [5][6] Group 2: Vocational Education Sector - The demand for vocational training is surging, driven by an increasing number of university graduates and high school students entering the labor market, leading to a projected market size of 80 billion yuan in 2025 with a penetration rate of only 5% [6][7] - The youth unemployment rate, particularly among those aged 16 to 24, is higher than the urban average, indicating a growing need for vocational skills training [6][7] - Companies to focus on in the vocational education sector include China Oriental Education and Fenbi [6][7] Group 3: Education Industry Trends - The education industry has undergone significant changes due to the "double reduction" policy, resulting in a 96% reduction in capacity in the academic training sector, with a limited number of operational licenses being redistributed [7] - The shift towards competency-based training is gaining momentum, with institutions leveraging their operational qualifications to expand their market share through non-academic training services [7] - The industry is moving towards a "franchise" model, which is expected to enhance revenue and profit growth for compliant institutions [7] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Hong Kong-listed vocational education companies, particularly China Oriental Education, which is adapting its operational strategy to cater to the needs of high school graduates [9] - In the higher education sector, the potential reintroduction of profit-oriented options is expected to enhance the revenue-sharing certainty for private colleges, with companies like Yuhua Education, Zhongjiao Holdings, and China Kepei being highlighted for their growth potential [9] - The report also suggests monitoring Chinese education companies listed in the US, such as New Oriental, TAL Education, and others, which are showing strong enrollment data [9]

Group 1: Overview of the Education Industry - The report highlights a potential recovery in the higher education sector, driven by improved quality standards and the reintroduction of profit-oriented licenses, particularly in Hunan province, which may serve as a pilot for national implementation [2][7] - The report anticipates that the operational efficiency of higher education companies will gradually improve as the investment cycle peaks, leading to a dual benefit of profit recovery and valuation enhancement in the sector [2][7] Group 2: Vocational Education Demand - There is a significant increase in demand for vocational training due to the rising number of young people entering the labor market, particularly high school graduates and college dropouts, which is expected to boost the vocational training market to a scale of 80 billion yuan in 2025, with a penetration rate of only 5% [3][8] - Companies such as China Oriental Education and Fenbi are recommended for investment as they adapt their strategies to meet the growing demand for skills training [3][8] Group 3: Training Industry Dynamics - The training industry has undergone a major restructuring, with a 96% reduction in capacity due to regulatory changes, leading to a supply shortage that has not yet improved significantly [4][9] - The report suggests that the industry is transitioning from a fully competitive market to a "franchise" model, which is expected to accelerate capacity expansion and revenue growth for compliant institutions [4][9] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the higher education sector such as Yuhua Education, Zhongjiao Holdings, and China Kapei, as well as vocational education companies like New Oriental and TAL Education, due to their potential for growth and recovery in profitability [12][27] - Specific investment opportunities are highlighted, including the potential for profit-oriented licenses to enhance returns for private higher education institutions [12][27]