Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The express delivery industry experienced a business volume growth of 19.1% year-on-year in April, with SF Express leading at 30.0% growth [3][4] - The cumulative express delivery volume from January to April reached 614.5 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.9% [15] - The average price per package in the express delivery sector continued to face pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 7.0% in April [4][5] - The report highlights the ongoing growth potential in the express delivery sector, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce [6][50] Summary by Sections Industry Situation - The cumulative retail sales of physical goods through online shopping reached 3.93 trillion yuan, growing by 5.8% year-on-year, with an online shopping penetration rate of approximately 24.3% [15][16] - The average value per package was about 63.9 yuan, down 13.1% year-on-year [15] Company Performance - In April, the express delivery volumes for major companies were as follows: YTO Express at 2.693 billion pieces, Yunda at 2.174 billion pieces, Shentong at 2.092 billion pieces, and SF Express at 1.335 billion pieces [4][35] - Cumulatively, from January to April, the express delivery volumes were: YTO Express at 9.472 billion pieces, Yunda at 8.250 billion pieces, Shentong at 7.899 billion pieces, and SF Express at 4.876 billion pieces [4][35] Pricing Situation - The average price per package in the express delivery industry was 7.43 yuan in April, down 7.0% year-on-year [4][5] - The average prices for major companies in April were: YTO Express at 2.14 yuan, Yunda at 1.91 yuan, Shentong at 1.97 yuan, and SF Express at 13.49 yuan [5][41] Core Summary and Outlook - The report emphasizes the continued growth potential in the express delivery sector, with e-commerce package volumes expanding and consumer behavior becoming more fragmented [6][50] - The competitive landscape is expected to evolve, with potential price competition re-emerging in 2025 as leading companies seek to increase their market shares [8][50] Investment Recommendations - For franchise-based companies, the report recommends focusing on Zhongtong Express, Yunda, and YTO Express, while keeping an eye on Shentong Express [51] - For direct-operated companies, SF Express is recommended due to its position as a leading comprehensive express logistics provider, with expectations of improved profitability and cash flow [51]

[Table_Author] 匡培钦 交运行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com [Table_Industry] 物流 2025 年 5 月 23 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（普通） | [Table_StockAndRank] 物流 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 顺丰单量增长超预期，电商快递价格继续承压 秦梦鸽 交运行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524110002 邮 箱：qinmengge@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 快递行业月度专题：顺丰单量增长超预期， 电商快递价格继续承压 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 23 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [事件：顺丰控股、圆通速递、韵达股份、申通快递发布 Table_Summa ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the stock of Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317) based on its strong market potential and recent product approvals [1]. Core Insights - The approval of Anglavei (Anruiwei®) marks a significant breakthrough for the company in the innovative drug sector, with expectations for rapid market penetration in the over 10 billion RMB influenza market [2][3]. - The company is advancing its innovative drug pipeline, including RAY1225, which has shown promising results in clinical trials for obesity and type 2 diabetes, and ZSP1601, targeting MASH, which is progressing well in clinical trials [4][5][8]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical is expected to grow from 27.65 billion RMB in 2025 to 37.74 billion RMB by 2027, with net profit forecasts of 3.00 billion RMB and 5.17 billion RMB respectively [11]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 56.5% in 2025 to 60.6% by 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [10][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.35 RMB in 2025 to 0.61 RMB in 2027, reflecting strong growth potential [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the stock of Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317) based on its strong market potential and innovative drug pipeline [18]. Core Insights - The approval of Anglavei for market entry marks a significant breakthrough for the company in the innovative drug sector, with expectations for rapid market penetration in the flu medication market, projected to exceed 10 billion yuan [2][3]. - The company is advancing its innovative drug development, with promising clinical trial results for RAY1225, a dual-target GLP-1/GIP peptide drug, which is set to enter Phase III trials [4][5][7]. - The MASH project, ZSP1601, is progressing well and has the potential to become a first-in-class drug for treating metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, with positive early clinical data [8][9]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 2.611 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.774 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17.3% [10][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from a loss of 299 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 517 million yuan by 2027, indicating a strong turnaround [10][11]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 56.0% in 2024 to 60.6% in 2027, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [10][11].

证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号 金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 特朗普"大漂亮"法案闯关进行时 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 23 日 | 一、特朗普减税 2.0 的第一重阻力逐步破除 3 | | --- | | 二、我们预计减税 2.0 快则 7 月落地，慢则 9 月落地 5 | | 三、下半年美债可能还会走高 8 | | 风险因素 9 | | 表 1：美国共和党内部强硬派和温和派的博弈 3 | | --- | | 表 2：2017 年，特朗普税改法案 ...

证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号 金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 特朗普"大漂亮"法案闯关进行时 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 23 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 特朗普减税法案快速落地存在的阻力，主要源自共和党内部强硬派和温 和派的博弈。自特朗普第二任期以来，其关税和移民政策都已经得到了落 地，而作为三大纲领之一的减税政策尚未落地。除了法案落地需要时间以 通过立法 ...

影石创新招股书梳理：智能影像技术先驱，产品创新驱动成长 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 23 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（普通） | [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 龚轶之 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525030005 邮 箱：gongyizhi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 影石创新招股书梳理：智能影像技术先驱，产 品创新驱动成长 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 23 日 本期内容提要: 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信 ...

影石创新招股书梳理：智能影像技术先驱，产品创新驱动成长 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 23 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（普通） | [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 龚轶之 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525030005 邮 箱：gongyizhi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 影石创新招股书梳理：智能影像技术先驱，产 品创新驱动成长 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 23 日 本期内容提要: 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that ZTO Express achieved an adjusted net profit of 2.259 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The operating cash flow net amount was 2.363 billion yuan, up 16.3% year-on-year [2][3] - The company reported a revenue of 10.892 billion yuan in Q1 2025, which is a 9.4% increase compared to the same period last year. The express service revenue was 10.122 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.5% year-on-year growth [3][4] - ZTO Express handled 8.539 billion parcels in Q1 2025, marking a 19.1% year-on-year increase, maintaining a market share of approximately 18.9%, which is the highest in the industry [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the adjusted net profit was 2.259 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%. The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.213 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [3] - The single ticket express revenue decreased by 8.0% year-on-year to 1.19 yuan, attributed to intensified industry competition and changes in cargo structure [4] - The single ticket express cost was approximately 0.68 yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, benefiting from improved economies of scale and route optimization [4] Growth Outlook - ZTO Express aims for a package volume guidance of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion parcels in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% to 24%, which is expected to further consolidate its leading market position [5] - The report suggests that the express delivery industry still has significant growth potential, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce [6][7] - The company is expected to maintain a strong cash flow and profitability, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 10.324 billion, 11.655 billion, and 13.388 billion yuan, respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that ZTO Express achieved an adjusted net profit of 2.259 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The operating cash flow net amount was 2.363 billion yuan, up 16.3% year-on-year [2][3] - The company reported a total revenue of 10.892 billion yuan in Q1 2025, which is a 9.4% increase compared to the same period last year. The express service revenue was 10.122 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.5% year-on-year growth [3][4] - ZTO Express handled 8.539 billion parcels in Q1 2025, marking a 19.1% increase year-on-year, maintaining a market share of approximately 18.9%, which is the highest in the industry [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the adjusted net profit was 2.259 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%. The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.213 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [3] - The single ticket express revenue was 1.19 yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year, attributed to intensified industry competition and changes in cargo structure [4] - The single ticket express cost was approximately 0.68 yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, benefiting from improved economies of scale and optimized route planning [4] Market Position and Growth Outlook - ZTO Express aims for high-quality volume growth, targeting a parcel volume of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion in 2025, which represents a year-on-year increase of 20% to 24% [5] - The report indicates that the express delivery industry still has significant growth potential, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce [6] - The company is expected to maintain its leading market position and achieve steady growth in both volume and profit due to its scale and management advantages [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 10.324 billion yuan, 11.655 billion yuan, and 13.388 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.42%, 12.89%, and 14.87% respectively [8] - The report emphasizes that ZTO Express's current valuation is at a historically low level, suggesting potential for significant upside [7][8]