Core Insights - The construction industry is officially entering a platform period, with infrastructure investment maintaining resilience but showing signs of decline in revenue among major state-owned enterprises [5][28][30] - The overall investment tone for infrastructure in the second half of 2025 will focus on stability, supported by proactive fiscal policies and accelerated government bond issuance [2][37] - Structural opportunities are emerging, particularly in manufacturing, power, water conservancy, and water transport sectors, driven by special government bonds [5][6] Industry Overview - The construction industry has seen a decline in total revenue for the first time in 2024, confirming a turning point for the industry [30] - The total revenue for the construction industry in 2024 was 86,962.78 billion, a decrease of 4.29% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 13.74% [30][32] - The share of real estate in GDP has been declining since its peak in 2021, while infrastructure investment has been rising but not enough to offset the decline in real estate [26][28] Investment Strategy - Long-term investment should focus on manufacturing-oriented companies like Honglu Steel Structure, while short-term strategies should prioritize high-dividend stocks and significant changes in individual companies [6][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities in the construction sector, particularly in areas aligned with national strategic initiatives and safety capabilities [60] State-Owned Enterprises - There is a growing divergence among state-owned construction enterprises, with only a few, such as China State Construction and China Energy Engineering, showing positive growth in Q1 2024 [7][28] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong dividend stability and growth potential, such as China Chemical Engineering and China Communications Construction [7][8] Professional Engineering and International Opportunities - The international engineering sector is expected to benefit from ongoing orders and the deepening of cooperation along the Belt and Road Initiative [8] - Companies like China National Materials and China Steel International are highlighted for their low valuations and high dividend yields, indicating strong performance potential [8] Mergers and Acquisitions - The construction industry is moving towards maturity, necessitating mergers and acquisitions to find new growth points [10] - The report anticipates that future mergers will primarily come from smaller, weaker segments of the industry, such as design and decoration [10]

Group 1 - The report identifies three main investment opportunities in the electronic industry for the second half of 2025: early-stage investment opportunities represented by AI glasses, Apple's foldable screens, humanoid robots, and domestic computing power; performance explosion investment opportunities represented by AI computing power (HDI, PTFE, CCL, NPU), semiconductor equipment, and intelligent driving; and mature-stage investment opportunities represented by panels, basic components, and analog chips [3][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of early-stage investment driven by new product launches, suggesting a focus on the supply chain of AI glasses, SOC, and optical components, as well as innovations in 3D printing and humanoid robot sensors after trade uncertainties are resolved [8][10]. - During the performance explosion phase, the report highlights the need to focus on companies that can deliver excess performance and profit growth, particularly in the AI computing power sector, with a projected compound annual growth rate of approximately 40.2% for AI server-related PCB products from 2023 to 2028 [9][53]. Group 2 - The report discusses the AI glasses market, noting that Meta's Rayban has seen explosive sales growth, with quarterly sales reaching 680,000 units in Q4 2024, driven by the integration of Meta's AI model [25][29]. - The report outlines the cost structure of AI glasses, indicating that the core processor accounts for the largest share of the BOM cost, with significant contributions from the camera and battery [31][35]. - The report suggests that the optical display is the most valuable module in AR devices, with MicroLED and diffraction waveguide being the optimal display solutions for AR glasses [33][37]. Group 3 - The report highlights the foldable screen market, projecting that if the penetration rate of foldable screens in the high-end market reaches 25%, global shipments could exceed 80 million units by 2030 [45][52]. - The report emphasizes the importance of hinges in foldable screens, noting that advancements in materials and manufacturing processes are crucial for improving hinge performance [50][51]. - The report indicates that the demand for PCBs is expected to rise significantly due to the growth of AI and high-speed network infrastructure, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.60% for server/data storage PCBs from 2023 to 2028 [54][60].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 央行发布 CIPS 新规，关注跨境支付投资机遇 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 7 月 4 日，中国人民银行发布关于《人民币跨境支付系统业务规则（征求意见稿）》（简称《业 务规则（征求意见稿）》）公开征求意见的通知，拟进一步健全参与者管理机制，提高 CIPS 参 与者管理水平。《业务规则（征求意见稿）》的发布或将加速我国跨境金融系统建设，中国跨境 支付企业或将受益于新的跨境支付体系的建立，迎来更大的发展空间。建议关注中国跨境支付 产业链相关标的，重点关注跨境支付平台标的。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490525070002 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 央行发布 CIPS 新规，关注跨境支付投资机遇 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 7 月 4 日，中国人民银行发布关于《人民币 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Viewpoints - The recent issuance of standard contract templates by the National Data Bureau and the State Administration for Market Regulation aims to facilitate data circulation and transaction efficiency, indicating a potential revaluation of data elements across the entire industry chain [2][4][5] - The introduction of these templates is expected to significantly reduce negotiation costs in data transactions, potentially increasing efficiency by 30% [9] Summary by Sections Event Description - The issuance of standard contract templates includes contracts for data provision, data processing services, data fusion development, and data intermediary services, aimed at promoting efficient and compliant data circulation [4][5] Event Commentary - The standard contracts focus on four typical scenarios in data circulation, addressing data ownership, confidentiality, liability, and dispute resolution, which are expected to enhance the efficiency of data transactions [5][9] Future Outlook - Pilot cities such as Beijing, Zhejiang, and Anhui are expected to lead the application of these standard templates, which will help establish a unified national data market and lower transaction costs [9] - The overall data element industry is anticipated to enter a practical implementation phase, benefiting companies with vast data resources and strong capabilities in data processing, management, and analysis [2][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [10] Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the transportation sector, emphasizing a shift from aggressive market share competition to a focus on profitability and quality [6][18] - It highlights the gradual recovery in passenger transport during the summer season, with domestic passenger volume showing a 5% year-on-year increase [7] - The report notes the ongoing challenges in the shipping sector, particularly with oil transport rates declining due to seasonal demand fluctuations [8] Summary by Sections Anti-Involution Impact on Transportation - The central government emphasizes the need to regulate low-price competition and improve product quality in the transportation sector [6][18] - The report identifies investment opportunities in aviation, logistics, and port operations, suggesting a transition from price wars to value-based competition [6][18] Passenger Transport - The summer travel season has started slowly, with domestic passenger volume increasing by 5% year-on-year, while international passenger volume has risen by 16% [7] - Domestic ticket prices have faced pressure, with a 9.7% year-on-year decline in oil-inclusive ticket prices [7] - The report recommends focusing on A-share private airlines and the three major Hong Kong airlines as potential investment targets [7] Shipping Sector - Oil transport rates have decreased, with the average VLCC-TCE rate dropping by 18.2% to $24,000 per day [8] - The report notes a seasonal slowdown in demand for oil transport, while container shipping rates on the US route have also declined [8] - It highlights the potential for recovery in oil transport rates as OPEC+ continues to increase production [8] Logistics - The report indicates a resilient performance in air freight rates, with a 0.5% week-on-week increase in cargo prices at Pudong Airport [8] - The express delivery sector has shown robust growth, with a 16% year-on-year increase in the volume of postal express deliveries [8] - It emphasizes the need for companies to focus on quality and efficiency to combat the negative effects of price wars [8][62] Port Operations - The report discusses the trend of regional port integration, moving from "one port, one enterprise" to "regional collaboration" to reduce over-competition [8][66] - It notes that the profitability of the port industry has been under pressure due to overcapacity and low utilization rates [8][63]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering industry [12] Core Insights - The Hong Kong government has launched the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0," focusing on the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), which is expected to reshape financing models in the construction industry and enhance asset liquidity and regulatory compliance [6][10] - RWA technology is systematically reconstructing the financing ecosystem of the construction industry, broadening financing channels, compressing cycles, and reducing costs [7] - The global RWA asset scale is expected to expand rapidly, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 95.69% from 2022 to 2025, reaching approximately $24.79 billion [10] Summary by Sections Hong Kong Policy and RWA Opportunities - The introduction of RWA in Hong Kong is anticipated to create new opportunities for the construction industry by enabling the digital mapping, rights confirmation, valuation, and trading of real-world assets [6][10] Financing Ecosystem Reconstruction - RWA technology is breaking traditional credit dependency, attracting global retail capital and sovereign funds, significantly expanding funding sources [7] - The asset securitization process has been reduced from 6-12 months to a few weeks, enhancing efficiency [7] - RWA technology allows small and medium enterprises to access capital that traditional financial systems often overlook [7] Market Participation and Asset Liquidity - The introduction of RWA technology lowers the trading threshold for high-value construction assets, increasing liquidity [8] - A notable project involved the tokenization of $3 billion worth of real estate assets into $500 shares, attracting widespread interest from small investors [8] Regulatory Compliance and Transparency - RWA technology creates an immutable digital mirror of assets, enhancing regulatory compliance through transparent mechanisms [9] - A case study in Syracuse, New York, demonstrated the conversion of a physical property into 13,750 tokens, ensuring authenticity and transparency in asset management [9] Global RWA Growth and Strategic Positioning - The global RWA asset scale is projected to reach $24.79 billion by July 2025, with a significant increase from $3.308 billion in 2022 [10] - Hainan Huatie has accumulated approximately 26 billion yuan in hardware-level on-chain assets, establishing a strong first-mover advantage in the RWA space [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power industry [11] Core Insights - The performance outlook for thermal power remains positive despite a decline in electricity prices and generation in Q2, driven by a significant decrease in coal prices [2][6] - Hydropower generation faces pressure due to high base effects and reduced rainfall, but some companies may achieve stable growth through optimized reservoir management [7][28] - Nuclear power generation continues to grow, but performance may vary by region due to differing impacts from market electricity prices [7][29] - Renewable energy generation (wind and solar) shows steady growth, but performance disparities exist across regions, influenced by local utilization hours [8][33] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - Key factors affecting thermal power profitability include coal prices, electricity prices, and generation volume. In Q2, coal prices decreased significantly, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal price averaging 631.61 yuan/ton, down 216.85 yuan/ton year-on-year [20][21] - The overall electricity price across regions has declined, but northern regions like Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang show relatively strong performance [6][17] - Despite a year-on-year decline in thermal power generation hours and prices, the significant drop in coal prices is expected to stabilize thermal power operations, particularly in northern and eastern regions [26][21] Hydropower - Hydropower generation saw a year-on-year decline of 11.02% in April-May due to high base effects and less rainfall [28][31] - Major hydropower companies with better asset quality may still achieve stable growth through effective water management strategies [28] Nuclear Power - Nuclear power generation increased by 9.57% year-on-year in April-May, supported by a larger installed capacity and fewer maintenance days [29][31] - The impact of market electricity price fluctuations varies, with companies like China Nuclear Power being less affected compared to others [29] Renewable Energy - Wind and solar generation increased by 11.87% and 11.68% year-on-year, respectively, but utilization hours have decreased [33][36] - Regional disparities in performance are evident, with eastern and central provinces showing improved wind utilization hours, while coastal provinces like Guangdong and Fujian experienced significant declines [33][39] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huadian International, Huaneng International, and China Power, as well as major hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power [9][44] - For renewable energy, companies with balanced national layouts like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power are expected to perform well [9][44]

丨证券研究报告丨 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 刘亚辉 公司研究丨点评报告丨中国核电（601985.SH） [Table_Title] 核绿电量延续优异表现，上半年业绩展望稳健 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 机组大修损失同比减少以及漳州 1 号年初商运共同拉动上半年核电发电量同比增长 12.01%， 单二季度核电发电量同比增长 10.77%。在电量优异表现的带动下，二季度及上半年公司核电 板块预计实现稳健的业绩表现。装机持续扩张拉动上半年新能源电量同比增长 35.76%，但考 虑增资引战后公司对中核汇能的持股比例降低，二季度及上半年新能源的归母业绩贡献或仍面 临一定压力。整体来看，上半年公司发电量同比增长 15.65%，即使考虑市场化交易、新能源股 比稀释等影响，预计公司二季度业绩仍将实现稳健增长。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 SFC：BQT627 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [9] Core Insights - The report highlights a strong expectation for short-term production cuts as a "stopgap" measure against industry overcapacity, with a neutral assumption of a 30 million ton year-on-year reduction in crude steel production in 2025, potentially leading to a 229 CNY/ton increase in rebar prices and an 86 CNY/ton rise in profit per ton [2][7] - The report emphasizes the gradual advancement of medium-term capacity reduction, with the "2025 Steel Industry Normative Conditions" clarifying standards for "compliant capacity," indicating that about 20% of capacity, primarily from small private enterprises, may face exit pressure starting in 2026 [2][7] - Recent market sentiment has improved, with a slight increase in demand, as evidenced by a 0.68% week-on-week rise in average daily sales of construction steel to 106,800 tons [4][5] - The report notes a decrease in average daily pig iron production to 2.4085 million tons, reflecting a 1.44 million ton day-on-day drop, and a year-on-year decline of 4.09% in total steel production [4][5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Dynamics - The central financial committee's meeting has sparked optimism regarding supply-side optimization in the steel market, leading to a recovery in steel prices [4] - The report indicates that the total inventory of steel has decreased slightly, with a year-on-year decline of 30.61% for long products and 15.96% for sheet products [5] Section 2: Policy Implications - The report discusses the significance of the "anti-involution" policy, which aims to address overcapacity in the steel industry, suggesting that administrative measures could stabilize steel prices and improve profitability [6][30] - The report anticipates that the "anti-involution" policy could lead to a significant transformation in the industry, comparable to previous supply-side reforms [6][30] Section 3: Investment Opportunities - The report identifies four main investment lines: 1. Companies benefiting from cost reductions due to new capacities in iron ore and coke, such as Nanjing Steel and Baosteel [30] 2. Companies with low price-to-book ratios that may see significant performance and valuation recovery, such as New Steel and Fangda Special Steel [30] 3. Mergers and acquisitions under the state-owned enterprise reform initiative, which could enhance asset quality and valuation [31] 4. High-quality processing leaders and resource companies, particularly those in specialized fields or benefiting from macroeconomic recovery [31]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the rise of emotional consumption in the IP derivative products sector, driven by the increasing willingness to pay for emotional value and the rapid spread of modern media [7][26][32] - The new tobacco trend is gaining momentum, with companies like Philip Morris International leading the transition towards a "smokeless future," indicating a global shift in the tobacco industry [8] - Innovations in supply and channel transformations are providing new opportunities for domestic brands in the personal care sector, with companies like Baiya and Dengkang leveraging differentiated products to enhance brand growth [9] Group 2: Industry Summaries - The home furnishing sector is expected to maintain a weak but stable state, with a focus on high-dividend investments in leading companies as supply gradually exits the market [10] - The paper industry is anticipated to see a gradual balance between supply and demand, with a potential recovery in the cycle as new supply pressures ease [11] - In the packaging industry, high-dividend stocks like Yutong Technology and Yongxin Co. are favored, with expectations of improved profitability in the metal packaging sector due to industry consolidation [12] Group 3: Electric Two-Wheelers and Exports - The electric two-wheeler market is projected to experience significant short-term growth, with companies like Yadi Holdings expected to see a net profit increase of over 55% in the first half of 2025 [13] - Despite uncertainties in tariff policies, there are opportunities for growth in the export sector, particularly for labor-intensive light industrial products that are unlikely to return to the U.S. market [14]