证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 06 月 16 日 社零数据点评 5 月社零同比+6.4%，大促提前社零及电商增速环比提升 消费品/商业 2025 年 5 月社会消费品零售总额为 41326 亿元，当月同比+6.4%；实物商品网 上零售额当月同比+8.2%。5 月社零及电商大盘增速环比 6 月进一步提升，主要 受益于 618 大促提前商品零售增速改善，其中国补持续刺激消费驱动下家电及 通讯类目增速继续提升领跑行业。618 收官在即，关注质地好、业绩佳、回购 高、估值低的消费互联网龙头公司。 ❑风险提示：宏观经济风险；行业竞争加剧。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 132 | 2.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 1163.4 | 1.3 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 1070.5 | 1.4 | 行业指数 | % | 1m | 6m | 12m | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 3.6 | -5.6 | 43.4 | | 相对表现 | 4.4 | -3.8 | 33.8 | ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of the Volcano Engine's FORCE conference focusing on AI advancements, including large models and AI cloud-native services, and Apple's WWDC 2025 emphasizing software ecosystem innovation [5][37] - The Volcano Engine introduced the Doubao large model 1.6, which significantly reduces costs while enhancing performance, and the Seedance 1.0 pro video generation model, which leads the industry in competitive rankings [17][34] - Apple showcased a unified Liquid Glass design across its operating systems, enhancing user experience and integrating AI capabilities into its ecosystem [38][49] Industry Trends - The Volcano Engine's conference discussed the industrialization path of AI technology, with a focus on large models, AI agents, and multi-modal understanding [5][15] - The Doubao large model 1.6 features a new pricing strategy that reduces costs by 63% compared to previous models, making it more accessible for enterprises [17][20] - The Seedance 1.0 pro model offers competitive pricing for video generation, allowing businesses to create high-quality content at a lower cost [34] Policy Developments - Recent policies in China aim to address "involution" in the steel and automotive industries, with commitments from major manufacturers to shorten payment terms to suppliers to no more than 60 days [57][58] - Local governments in cities like Shenzhen and Beijing have introduced consumption-boosting measures to stimulate economic activity, including the cancellation of real estate purchase restrictions [57][58] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on five key sectors with marginal improvements: AI applications, self-sufficiency, new consumption, precious metals, and innovative pharmaceuticals [54][56] - The AI application sector is highlighted due to upcoming events and advancements in autonomous driving and logistics, indicating potential growth opportunities [54] - The self-sufficiency sector is expected to benefit from advancements in domestic chip production and the ongoing trend of replacing foreign technology with local alternatives [54]

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 06 月 16 日 高频数据释放的政策信号 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 22 期） 频率：每周 进入 6 月，出口高频指标开始转弱，而房地产高频指标维持 2 季度以来弱势。 随着出口增速逐步放缓，叠加房地产销售降温，国内政策可能将继续加码，但 考虑到今年上半年增长形势好于去年前三季度，那么政策力度也不会超过去年 926 后的增量政策。 风险提示：地缘政治风险、国内政策落地不及预期、全球衰退及主要经济体货 币政策超预期。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《伊以冲突升级背后的美国 ———国际时政周评》2025-06- 15 2、《哪些因素可以提升市场风 险偏好—显微镜下的中国经济 （2025 年第 21 期）》2025-06- 11 3、《中美通话；特朗普政府内 部路线之争———国际时政周 评》2025-06-08 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 在此前的报告中，我们提到外贸和房地产高频 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, which has led to a substantial increase in crude oil prices [1]. - It suggests focusing on leading companies in the compound fertilizer sector, specifically recommending Xinyangfeng as a key investment opportunity [5]. Industry Performance - In the third week of June, the chemical sector (Shenwan) experienced a slight decline of 0.01%, underperforming the Shanghai A-share index, which fell by 0.24% [2][12]. - The dynamic PE ratio for the chemical sector is reported at 24.59 times, which is lower than the average PE of 9.81 times since 2015 [2][12]. Subsector Trends - Among the 30 subsectors in the chemical industry, 18 saw an increase while 12 experienced a decline during the same period. The top five performing subsectors included textile chemical products (+8.1%) and oil trading (+7.41%) [3][16]. - Conversely, the worst-performing subsectors were daily chemical products (-5%) and fiberglass (-4.42%) [3][16]. Chemical Prices and Spreads - The report lists the top five products with the highest weekly price increases: mixed aromatics (+7.39%), WTI crude oil (+7.37%), and pure benzene (+7.34%) [4][21]. - The report also notes significant changes in price spreads, with ammonium nitrate showing a remarkable increase of 170.2% in its price spread [4][38]. Inventory Changes - Key products with notable inventory changes include polyester chips, which saw a decrease of 12.36%, and urea, which increased by 11.4% [5][59]. Industry News Recap - The report discusses the optimistic trade outlook between the US and China, which is expected to boost energy demand during the summer, alongside a continuous decline in US oil and gas drilling platforms [88].

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 06 月 16 日 AI 算力 PCB 及高速 CCL 需求向上，供应缺口推动高阶产能加速扩张 PCB 行业深度跟踪报告 TMT 及中小盘/电子 本篇报告分析了 PCB/CCL 产业链最新景气趋势。Q1 AI 算力需求拉动稼动 率向上，行业淡季不淡，进入 Q2 后，AI 驱动的景气推动稼动率保持高位运 行。我们认为整体需求处于向上态势，AI 算力在大模型训练以及 AI 应用持续 优化迭代的推动下，需求仍旧旺盛；AI 端侧中长线以苹果为代表的端侧 AI 化 升级以及汽车智能化趋势加速演进带来的新增需求值得期待；载板方面，市 场需求随 AI/HPC 芯片新品出货放量快速回暖，国内高端载板厂商亦有望取 得新突破；CCL：算力侧高频高速材料需求弹性向上，国内头部厂商有望深 度受益。PCB 板块今年处于高景气，估值有向上空间，我们认为 PCB/CCL 行业兼具周期和成长属性，算力+AI 端侧等创新有望打开行业新的增长空 间，建议积极关注。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 505 | 9.9 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company plans to acquire 100% of Sorsy Optoelectronics for a maximum consideration of $629 million, expanding its strategic footprint into the optical module sector [1]. - Sorsy Optoelectronics is a leading global manufacturer in the optical module market, with a revenue of approximately 3 billion yuan and a net profit of 400 million yuan in 2024 [1]. - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's strategic layout in the optical module field, achieving industrial synergy and diversified business development [1]. - The company anticipates significant growth in demand for optical communication modules driven by advancements in AI computing and the continuous upgrade of high-speed switches [1]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for the company, projecting revenues of 40.45 billion, 45.30 billion, and 49.83 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.50 billion, 3.60 billion, and 4.38 billion yuan [6]. Financial Data Summary - The company has a total market capitalization of 53.7 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 43.6 billion yuan [2]. - The total share capital is 1,706 million shares, with 1,386 million shares listed for circulation [2]. - The company reported a return on equity (ROE) of 6.5% and an asset-liability ratio of 58.3% [2]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.46, 2.11, and 2.57 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21.5, 14.9, and 12.2 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that local bonds may be approaching an allocation window. It analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local bonds, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, secondary spreads, and trading volume and turnover rates [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Conditions - **Net Financing**: This week, local bond issuance was 107.8 billion yuan, with a net repayment of 43 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance is 261.8 billion yuan, with a net financing of 124.3 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to this week [1][3]. - **Issuance Terms**: The issuance proportion of 10 - year local bonds was the highest this week (47%), and the proportion of 10 - year and above bonds reached 76%, an increase from last week. The 10 - year bond issuance proportion increased by about 24 percentage points [1]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds worth 26.7 billion yuan were issued. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing hidden debts, totaling 1.7362 trillion yuan. Special special bonds worth 1.5 billion yuan were issued this week, and as of the end of this week, the disclosed and issued scales in 2025 were 273 billion yuan and 245.4 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local bonds this week was 12bp, wider than last week. The 30 - year local bond had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 19.3bp. Except for the 5 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds, the spreads of other terms widened [1]. - **Fund - Raising Allocations**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of newly - added special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (32%), transportation infrastructure (21%), social undertakings (12%), and affordable housing projects (12%). The proportion of land reserve allocations increased by 7.7% compared to 2024 [2]. - **Issuance Plan**: In the second quarter of 2025, 36 regions have disclosed local bond issuance plans, with an estimated total issuance of 2.48 trillion yuan. In June, the planned issuance is 1007.6 billion yuan [30]. 3.2 Secondary Market Conditions - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year local bonds were advantageous, and the secondary spread of 10 - year local bonds narrowed significantly. The secondary spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year bonds were 21bp and 20bp respectively. The historical quantile of the 30 - year bond's secondary spread was 87% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rates**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local bonds increased. Tianjin, Shenzhen, and Ningbo had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume reached 598.3 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 1.17%. Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Sichuan had large trading volumes [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the pet food and snack segments continue to show strong performance, while the liquor sector is experiencing a downturn, with concerns over inventory and demand impacting sentiment [14][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies managing supply and maintaining prices in response to market conditions, particularly in the liquor industry [14]. - E-commerce performance in snacks, health products, and pet food is expected to be strong, with a notable 16% year-on-year increase in sales for pet food across major platforms [14]. Summary by Relevant Sections Core Company Tracking - **Yanghe Co.**: Acknowledges issues and plans for deep adjustments, with inventory down 10% year-on-year. The company aims to reduce expenses and promote high-quality products [9]. - **New Dairy Industry**: Focuses on product innovation and differentiation, with a strong supply chain and a third of its milk sourced from its own farms [10]. - **Tianwei Foods**: Reports positive revenue growth in April-May, driven by improved sales and custom business growth, with a healthy inventory [11]. - **Haitian Flavor Industry**: Experiences slower shipping progress due to weak restaurant demand, but maintains a steady pace in overseas expansion [12]. - **Ximai Foods**: Achieves rapid online growth and aims for double-digit growth offline, focusing on product innovation and member engagement [12]. - **Good Idea**: Implements cost control measures and emphasizes profit assessment, with a focus on promoting specific product lines [13]. - **Kangshifu**: Faces revenue growth pressure but sees profit margin improvement due to price adjustments and raw material cost reductions [13]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with new product and channel catalysts, such as Youyou Foods, New Dairy Industry, and Ximai Foods, as well as those with profit recovery potential like Good Idea [15]. - It highlights the seasonal sales improvement for brands like Qingdao Beer and Farmer Spring, and suggests monitoring opportunities in the pet food segment [15]. - Defensive stocks such as Yili and Mengniu are recommended, along with low-position opportunities in liquor companies like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye [15]. Industry Valuation - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating market capitalization and projected earnings for the upcoming years, with Guizhou Moutai leading in market cap at 1792.5 billion [16].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Interest Rate Price-Volume Multi-Cycle Timing Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses kernel regression to identify support and resistance lines in interest rate trends. It combines signals from long, medium, and short investment cycles to form a composite timing strategy[10][22] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Signal Generation**: - Long-cycle signals switch monthly, medium-cycle signals switch bi-weekly, and short-cycle signals switch weekly[10] - A downward breakthrough in at least two cycles triggers a long-duration allocation, while an upward breakthrough in at least two cycles triggers a short-duration allocation[22] - **Portfolio Construction**: - Full allocation to long duration when at least two cycles show downward breakthroughs and the trend is not upward - 50% medium duration + 50% long duration when at least two cycles show downward breakthroughs but the trend is upward - Full allocation to short duration when at least two cycles show upward breakthroughs and the trend is not downward - 50% medium duration + 50% short duration when at least two cycles show upward breakthroughs but the trend is downward - Equal allocation across short, medium, and long durations during other periods[22] - **Performance Benchmark**: Equal-weighted duration strategy (1/3 short duration + 1/3 medium duration + 1/3 long duration)[22] - **Stop-Loss Mechanism**: Adjust to equal-weighted allocation when daily excess return falls below -0.5%[22] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates robust performance with consistent positive absolute and excess returns over 18 years, indicating strong adaptability and reliability[23] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Interest Rate Price-Volume Multi-Cycle Timing Strategy - **Short-Term Performance (Since End of 2023)**: - Annualized Return: 7.35% - Maximum Drawdown: 1.58% - Return-to-Drawdown Ratio: 6.31 - Excess Return: 2.26% - Excess Return-to-Drawdown Ratio: 2.39[4][22][23] - **Long-Term Performance (Since 2007)**: - Annualized Return: 6.18% - Maximum Drawdown: 1.52% - Return-to-Drawdown Ratio: 2.26 - Excess Return: 1.66% - Excess Return-to-Drawdown Ratio: 1.18[22][23] - **Annual Performance Statistics (2008-2025)**: - Absolute Return: Positive in all 18 years (100% success rate) - Excess Return: Positive in all 18 years (100% success rate) - Example Annual Returns: - 2008: Absolute Return 17.08%, Excess Return 4.41% - 2024: Absolute Return 9.35%, Excess Return 2.52% - 2025 (YTD): Absolute Return 1.37%, Excess Return 0.76%[23][26] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Interest Rate Structure Indicators (Level, Slope, Convexity) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Transform yield-to-maturity (YTM) data of 1-10 year government bonds into structural indicators to analyze the interest rate market from a mean-reversion perspective[7] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Level Structure**: Measures the average YTM across maturities - **Slope Structure**: Captures the difference between long-term and short-term YTMs - **Convexity Structure**: Reflects the curvature of the yield curve[7][9] - **Current Readings**: - Level: 1.53%, in the 6%, 4%, and 2% percentiles for 3, 5, and 10-year historical windows, respectively - Slope: 0.24%, in the 5%, 3%, and 6% percentiles for 3, 5, and 10-year historical windows, respectively - Convexity: 0.05%, in the 21%, 13%, and 14% percentiles for 3, 5, and 10-year historical windows, respectively[9] 2. Factor Name: Public Bond Fund Duration and Yield-to-Maturity (YTM) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Use an improved regression model to estimate the duration and YTM of medium-to-long-term pure bond funds, dynamically tracking weekly changes in institutional views[13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Duration**: - Median Duration: 3.3 years - 4-Week Moving Average: 3.32 years - Mean Duration: 3.39 years - Current Percentile: 96.14% over the past 5 years[13][14] - **Duration Dispersion**: - Cross-sectional Standard Deviation: 1.58 years - Current Percentile: 65.64% over the past 5 years[14] - **YTM**: - Median YTM: 1.79% - 4-Week Moving Average: 1.81% - Mean YTM: 1.86% - Current Level: Near historical lows[19] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Interest Rate Structure Indicators - **Level Structure**: 1.53% - **Slope Structure**: 0.24% - **Convexity Structure**: 0.05%[9] 2. Public Bond Fund Duration and YTM - **Duration**: - Median: 3.3 years - 4-Week Moving Average: 3.32 years - Mean: 3.39 years[13][14] - **Duration Dispersion**: - Standard Deviation: 1.58 years[14] - **YTM**: - Median: 1.79% - 4-Week Moving Average: 1.81% - Mean: 1.86%[19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the environmental and public utility sector [2] Core Insights - The environmental sector index increased by 0.26%, while the public utility sector index decreased by 1.19%, indicating a divergence in performance [7] - The report highlights the ongoing pilot projects in hydrogen energy, aiming to support the entire chain of hydrogen "production, storage, transportation, and utilization" [11] - The report emphasizes the need for market-oriented measures in electricity management, particularly in cross-provincial emergency dispatching [11] Summary by Sections Key Event Interpretations - The National Energy Administration has initiated hydrogen energy pilot projects to promote clean energy consumption in various sectors [11] - The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed a management method for cross-provincial electricity emergency dispatching to ensure power supply safety [11] Market Performance Review - The environmental sector has shown a cumulative increase of 6.01% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices [7] - The report notes that the coal price remains low, with Qinhuangdao's 5500 kcal thermal coal price at 620 CNY/ton, a significant drop from previous highs [23][24] Industry Data Tracking - As of June 13, 2025, the water level of the Three Gorges Reservoir is 150.66 meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [25] - The report tracks the price of polysilicon, which has decreased to 35 CNY/kg, reflecting ongoing price adjustments in the market [40] Key Industry Events - The report discusses the implementation of various policies aimed at promoting hydrogen energy and carbon emission reduction across different provinces [54][55]