敬请阅读末页的重要说明 科技主题投资策略样本外表现优异 ——主题投资策略表现跟踪 风险提示：政策和市场环境可能发生变化，模型可能失效。 任瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn 刘凯 S1090524120001 liukai11@cmschina.com.cn 罗星辰 S1090522070001 luoxingchen@cmschina.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 9 月 16 日 定期跟踪 ❑ 科技主题股票池筛选：报告从研发、专利、基金持仓、行业、等多个维度筛 选科技主题股票池。股票池最新数量约为千只，行业以计算机、电子、医药 生物、机械设备等为主。构建的科技主题指数跑赢科技龙头等市场主流指数， 且回撤相对较低。 ❑ 科技择时框架：在择时层面，基于宏观流动性和估值等维度，构建科技板块 择时策略。择时策略年化收益约 21%，相对科技指数超额年化收益约 14%， 最大回撤约 15%。 ❑ 科技选股因子框架：基于四维度（估值、基本面、技术面、风格）选取共 16 个因子构建选股框架。估值维度选取市盈率、市净率、市销率类因；基本面 维度选取 S ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the securities industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The securities industry is experiencing a stable upward trend, with strong performance driven by market conditions. The total revenue of listed securities firms reached 251.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 104.0 billion yuan, up 65% [6][16] - The industry is expected to achieve a total revenue of 557.2 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 24% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 228.5 billion yuan, up 37% [7] Summary by Sections Market Conditions and Performance - The stock and bond markets are recovering, with the three major indices rising by an average of 1.11% in the first half of 2025. The bond market also saw a cumulative increase of 1.14% [6][9] - Daily average trading volume for stock funds reached 16,135 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64%, while the average margin trading amount increased by 75% [11][16] Business Overview - The revenue breakdown for the first half of 2025 shows significant contributions from various segments: investment income at 112.4 billion yuan (+50%), brokerage income at 63.5 billion yuan (+39%), and credit income at 19.7 billion yuan (+17%) [6][16] - The average annualized ROE for listed securities firms was 6.93%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the previous year [24] Segment Performance - Brokerage business showed strong growth with net income of 63.5 billion yuan, up 39%. The number of new personal and institutional accounts increased significantly [36][43] - Investment banking revenue reached 15.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%, with a notable rise in IPO fundraising [51][62] - Asset management revenue declined slightly to 21.2 billion yuan, down 7%, attributed to a shift in product structure towards ETFs [68][70] Outlook and Recommendations - The report suggests that the securities industry remains a key focus for investment, particularly in a bull market. It highlights specific firms such as Nanhua Futures, Bank of China Securities, and others as potential investment opportunities [7][8]

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes that AI remains the main theme in the Hong Kong stock market, with internet and non-ferrous metals sectors expected to benefit significantly [1][2][3] - The report highlights that AI cloud services are experiencing high growth, with domestic cloud providers seeing a surge in demand, leading to a notable increase in revenue [2][3] - The report indicates that self-developed chips by major AI companies like Alibaba and Baidu are becoming new catalysts for stock performance, showcasing advancements in AI hardware [3][4] Group 2 - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as innovative drugs, internet, and non-ferrous metals, citing strong fundamentals and favorable market conditions [5] - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance last week, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 3.82% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 5.31% [6][10] - The report notes that the liquidity situation in Hong Kong is improving, with local ETFs seeing significant net inflows, indicating positive investor sentiment [18][21] Group 3 - The report details that southbound funds continued to flow into the market, with a net inflow of 608 billion HKD, primarily directed towards non-essential consumption and financial sectors [23][24] - The report mentions that the current forward PE ratio for the Hang Seng Index is 12.6 times, which is above the three-year median of 9 times, suggesting a relatively high valuation [27][33] - The report outlines that the financing demand for Hong Kong-listed companies in September is 21.8 billion HKD, with IPO and placement needs accounting for 4.5 billion and 17.1 billion HKD respectively [30]

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 09 月 15 日 流动性驱动港股新一轮上涨，聚焦三进攻+两底仓 ——港股 9 月策略月报 展望后市，港股市场仍然主要是依靠流动性驱动，内外流动性充裕港股有望迎 来新一轮上涨。从港股中报数据来看，港股公司业绩增速处于历史较低水平， 新旧经济结构分化明显，以科技为主导的结构性行情具有坚实的盈利支撑。配 置方向上聚焦三进攻（科技、有色、非银）+两底仓（困境反转、红利）。 ❑ 风险提示：美联储货币政策超预期、海外政策超预期收紧。 专题报告 相关报告 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S1090520030001 tujingqing@cmschina.com.cn 王德健 研究助理 wangdejian@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 1、《港股 IPO 的抽水效应如何 ——港股系列研究报告（1）》 2、《港股市场流动性跟踪框架 ——港股系列研究报告（2）》 策略研究 一、大势研判：流动性驱动反弹，突出结构性机会 短期观点：港股市场仍然主要是依靠流动性驱动，内外流动性充裕港股有望迎来新 ...

证券研究报告| 行业定期报告 2025 年 09 月 15 日 招商证券丨总量的视野 电话会议纪要（20250914） 研究部/总量研究 【宏观-张岸天】就业、通胀和美联储连续降息预期 【策略-涂婧清】内外部流动性改善驱动港股新一轮上涨 【固收-朱宸翰】长债重定价结束了么 【银行-王先爽】M1 增速何时见顶？-8 月金融数据分析 【基金评价-徐燕红】公募基金第三阶段费率改革影响深度解析 ❑ 【宏观-张岸天】就业、通胀和美联储连续降息预期 近期，海外市场对于美联储自 9 月起连续降息三次的预期升温，主要由弱非 农和仍属温和的关税通胀等经济数据所支持。 从美债利率来看，市场已经从上周开始计入供需双弱、降温明显的劳动力市 场。1）8 月非农新增 2.2 万人，大幅低于市场所预期的 7.5 万人。建筑业、 制造业、商业服务和政府部门的降幅都比较明显，其中建筑业降幅扩大到-0.7 万人（前值-0.1 万人），时薪增速环比涨幅有 0.6%，价升量减很可能反映出 移民政策的影响。2）9 号 BLS 发布非农基准修订数据，共计下修 91.1 万人， 属于市场预期高位区间。分行业来看，政府部门下修 3.1 万，私人部门下修 8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The M1 growth rate is expected to peak in September, with various factors contributing to its fluctuations, including fiscal contributions and base effects from previous years [3][4]. - The analysis indicates that the current financial data suggests a cautious outlook for liquidity, with M1 and other liquidity indicators likely reaching their high points [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring fiscal policies and real estate stabilization trends for future M1 growth [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Analysis - M1 growth is primarily driven by fiscal contributions, with a notable increase of 5.5 trillion yuan year-on-year from September last year to August this year [2]. - The report highlights that M1's year-on-year growth has rebounded by 9.3 percentage points, largely due to fiscal and base effects [2][3]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the peak of social financing growth has passed, and fiscal strength is beginning to decline year-on-year [3]. - It notes that if fiscal budgets do not increase, the fourth quarter may see a negative contribution to M1 growth, indicating a potential peak in September [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises investors to adopt a long-term perspective and balanced allocation, focusing on banks with superior free cash flow and asset quality [9]. - It suggests that the banking sector is expected to provide annualized returns and Sharpe ratios that exceed the overall market, making it a favorable investment area [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Strongly Recommended" for key companies such as Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Sunshine Power [3]. Core Insights - The domestic energy storage policy continues to strengthen, with demand expected to exceed expectations and be sustainable. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration have issued a plan to increase the new energy storage installed capacity to over 180GW by 2027, which will double the current capacity within the next two and a half years [1][8][12]. - The bidding scale for the domestic energy storage market reached a historical high of 25.8GW/69.4GWh in August 2025, indicating a robust demand outlook despite previous concerns following the cancellation of mandatory energy storage requirements [14]. Industry Policy - The new energy storage capacity pricing mechanism is being established, with various provinces implementing supportive policies. For instance, the pricing standard for new energy storage capacity is set at 100 yuan/kW/year from October to December 2025, increasing to 165 yuan/kW/year from January 2026 [9][11]. - The cancellation of mandatory energy storage requirements has led to a trend where provincial capacity policies are expected to support the industry's future development [9][12]. Key Companies and Financial Metrics - **Ningde Times**: Market cap of 149.28 billion, 2025 EPS of 14.9, PE of 22, rated "Strongly Recommended" [3]. - **Yiwei Lithium Energy**: Market cap of 15.1 billion, 2025 EPS of 2.2, PE of 33, rated "Strongly Recommended" [3]. - **Sunshine Power**: Market cap of 27.76 billion, 2025 EPS of 5.9, PE of 23, rated "Strongly Recommended" [3]. - **Hai Bo Si Chuang**: Market cap of 3.29 billion, 2025 EPS of 4.8, PE of 38, not rated [3]. - **Sheng Hong Co., Ltd.**: Market cap of 1.2 billion, 2025 EPS of 1.5, PE of 26, rated "Strongly Recommended" [3]. - **Kehua Data**: Market cap of 3.56 billion, 2025 EPS of 1.2, PE of 59, rated "Strongly Recommended" [3]. - **He Wang Electric**: Market cap of 1.54 billion, 2025 EPS of 1.4, PE of 25, rated "Strongly Recommended" [3]. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the energy storage and new energy sector has shown significant growth, with a 12-month increase of 67.9% [6]. Future Outlook - The energy storage installed capacity is projected to double within the next two and a half years, with an average annual installation requirement of 34GW/136GWh to meet the 2027 target [8][12]. - The demand for energy storage is expected to remain strong and sustainable, supported by ongoing policy initiatives and high bidding activity in the market [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals [3]. Core Insights - Oracle's FY2026 Q1 financial results exceeded market expectations, with RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations) totaling over $455 billion, reflecting a 359% year-over-year increase [9][10]. - The demand for AI computing infrastructure is driving significant growth in Oracle's cloud services, with OCI (Oracle Cloud Infrastructure) expected to reach $18 billion in FY26 and grow to $144 billion by FY30 [12][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of both AI training and inference, highlighting the growing need for database capabilities and data governance in the AI ecosystem [24][17]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Oracle's Financial Performance - Oracle's FY2026 Q1 RPO surpassed expectations, driven by strong demand for AI computing infrastructure, with a notable increase in cloud contracts with leading AI companies [9][10]. - The cloud infrastructure revenue reached $3.3 billion, marking a 54% increase year-over-year, while cloud database services grew by 32% [10][11]. Section 2: AI Industry Chain Updates - Recent developments include Tesla's proposed $1 trillion compensation plan for Elon Musk, Microsoft's $17.4 billion GPU infrastructure contract with Nebius Group, and Haiguang Information's stock incentive plan [25][26][28]. - The report highlights the ongoing advancements in AI infrastructure and the strategic moves by major players in the industry [24]. Section 3: Market Performance Review - The computer sector saw a 3.37% increase in the second week of September 2025, with notable stock performances from companies like Chunzong Technology and Kaipu Cloud [30][31].

Geopolitical Conflicts - The escalation of the Middle East conflict led to a 1.8% increase in Brent crude oil prices, despite concerns over oversupply and weak demand[4] - Israel's airstrike on Qatar was described as a "precision strike" against Hamas leaders, with potential implications for U.S.-Qatar relations[10] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict saw Poland shoot down a drone allegedly from Russia, raising tensions in the region[15] U.S.-China Trade Relations - The fourth round of U.S.-China trade talks is scheduled from September 14-17 in Spain, focusing on unilateral tariffs and export controls[17] - The U.S. Commerce Department added several Chinese entities to the export control "entity list," indicating ongoing trade tensions[17] - Trump's administration is pressuring the EU and NATO to impose significant tariffs (50-100%) on Russian oil buyers, contingent on their cooperation[16] Economic Indicators - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.5% this week, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 2.6%[6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a 1.0% increase, and the S&P 500 rose by 1.6%[6] - Brent crude oil is currently priced at $66.88 per barrel, reflecting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine[6] Federal Reserve and Tariff Issues - The U.S. Supreme Court will expedite the review of the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, with oral arguments scheduled for early November[22] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with a court ruling temporarily blocking the dismissal of a Fed official[22] - Ongoing investigations into tariffs on various sectors, including pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, are expected to influence future trade negotiations[22]

Group 1 - The shipbuilding sector experienced weak stock performance in the first half of 2025, primarily due to a decline in both volume and price in the ship market, despite strong earnings from shipbuilding stocks as prior orders were fulfilled [1][5][12] - The performance of shipbuilding stocks was significantly better than revenue growth, with profits increasing substantially due to high-priced orders from 2022 entering a delivery phase and a decrease in steel costs compared to 2021 [14][15] - The overall market sentiment for the shipbuilding industry was poor, with new orders and new ship prices under significant downward pressure, influenced by low freight rates and the impact of the US 301 Act on Chinese shipbuilding [19][31] Group 2 - The shipbuilding industry is expected to benefit from a future recovery in demand for bulk carriers and oil tankers, as their order-to-capacity ratios are currently low, indicating potential for growth [46][49] - As of June 2025, the order-to-capacity ratios for bulk carriers and oil tankers were only 10.4% and 15% respectively, significantly lower than the 39.4% for container ships, suggesting that the current downturn is a temporary pause in an upward cycle [46][47] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipbuilding sector, recommending investments in companies like China Shipbuilding and China Power, while suggesting attention to companies involved in shipbuilding and related equipment [1][5][46] Group 3 - The first half of 2025 saw a notable decline in fund holdings in the shipbuilding sector, with significant year-on-year decreases in holdings for major companies, although there was a quarter-on-quarter increase in Q2, indicating renewed institutional interest [11][12] - The earnings of major shipbuilding companies showed remarkable growth, with China Shipbuilding reporting a revenue of 40.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.95 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12% and 109% respectively [15][17] - The global new ship order volume fell to 1.67 million CGT in May 2025, marking the lowest level in four years, with a significant year-on-year decline across various ship types, particularly LNG and oil tankers [31][34]