Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry saw an overall increase of 1.3% from November 30 to December 6, with significant contributions from new energy vehicle manufacturers like Hongmeng Zhixing, which achieved a record monthly delivery of 81,864 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 89.61% [1][21]. - Several automakers have introduced purchase tax subsidy policies, with maximum reductions reaching 15,000 yuan, aimed at boosting consumer confidence and sales [21][26]. - The report highlights the strong performance of individual companies, with notable increases in delivery numbers for brands such as Li Auto and NIO, which reported year-on-year growth rates of 76.3% and 19%, respectively [1][21]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's secondary segments, including automotive parts and commercial vehicles, experienced notable gains, each rising by 1.8% during the week [2][11]. - The report details the performance of individual stocks within the automotive sector, with Fuxai Technology leading with a 21.4% increase, while GAC Group saw a decline of 5.8% [3][18]. Recent Industry Developments - The report outlines key developments in the industry, including the launch of new models and strategic partnerships aimed at enhancing autonomous driving capabilities [21][24]. - Noteworthy collaborations include the strategic partnership between Qianli Zhijia and Cao Cao Mobility, focusing on the commercial application of intelligent driving technology [24]. - The report also mentions the introduction of new models such as the AITO M9 and the upcoming L4 autonomous vehicle from Hello, expected to begin mass production in June [21][24].

Group 1: U.S. National Security Strategy - The 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy emphasizes prioritizing the Western Hemisphere and critiques Europe while downplaying terrorism threats[10] - The strategy reflects a shift from global free trade to a focus on maintaining U.S. hegemony amid rising competition, suggesting a reallocation of military resources from less critical areas like Europe[13] - Economic security is a major focus, with goals including balancing trade, securing critical materials, and maintaining energy and financial dominance[17] Group 2: U.S.-China Relations - Recent communications between U.S. and Chinese economic leaders indicate a move towards a more stable relationship, with ongoing discussions on trade and strategic cooperation[15] - The U.S. aims to reduce dependency on China in non-sensitive trade areas while enhancing military deterrence in the Asia-Pacific region[14] - The upcoming interactions between U.S. and Chinese leaders are expected to further influence bilateral relations[18] Group 3: Geopolitical Conflicts and Tariffs - Ongoing geopolitical tensions include the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East negotiations, with a focus on U.S. involvement and potential impacts on oil prices[19] - U.S. tariffs remain a contentious issue, with ongoing legal discussions and negotiations with countries like India and Brazil, particularly in strategic industries[22] - The U.S. government is conducting investigations into tariffs on sectors such as semiconductors and critical minerals, reflecting a focus on national security[22] Group 4: Political Risks and Future Outlook - The potential for significant shifts in U.S. policy and international relations poses risks, particularly as the 2026 midterm elections approach[24] - The strategy indicates a desire to strengthen U.S. control in the Western Hemisphere, with increased political risks in the region[24] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring domestic political dynamics that could affect the implementation of the National Security Strategy[24]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Multi-Cycle Timing Model for Domestic Interest Rates - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses kernel regression algorithms to identify support and resistance lines of interest rate trends. It evaluates the breakthrough patterns of interest rate movements across different investment cycles to form multi-cycle composite timing signals[10][24]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Data Input**: Yield-to-Maturity (YTM) data for 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds[6][10]. - **Cycle Classification**: - Long cycle: Monthly frequency - Medium cycle: Bi-weekly frequency - Short cycle: Weekly frequency[10][21]. - **Signal Generation**: - A signal is generated when at least two cycles show consistent directional breakthroughs (upward or downward). - For example, for the 5-year YTM, the current signal is "bearish" as both the long and medium cycles show upward breakthroughs, while the short cycle shows no signal[10]. - **Scoring Mechanism**: - Each cycle contributes one "vote" for upward or downward breakthroughs. - A composite score is calculated based on the total votes, and the final signal is determined[10][13][17]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures interest rate trends and provides actionable timing signals for different bond maturities[10][24]. 2. Model Name: Multi-Cycle Timing Model for US Interest Rates - **Model Construction Idea**: The domestic timing model is applied to the US Treasury market to generate timing signals for 10-year US Treasury YTM[21]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Data Input**: 10-year US Treasury YTM data[21]. - **Cycle Classification**: Same as the domestic model (long, medium, and short cycles)[21]. - **Signal Generation**: - The current signal is "neutral" as only the short cycle shows an upward breakthrough, while the long and medium cycles show no signal[21]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates adaptability to international markets, providing consistent timing signals for US Treasuries[21]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Multi-Cycle Timing Model for Domestic Interest Rates - **5-Year YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 5.48% - Maximum drawdown: 2.88% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 1.91 - Short-term annualized return (since end-2024): 2.11% - Maximum drawdown: 0.59% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 3.57 - Long-term excess return: 1.07% - Short-term excess return: 0.87%[6][28][29]. - **10-Year YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 6.06% - Maximum drawdown: 2.74% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 2.21 - Short-term annualized return (since end-2024): 2.39% - Maximum drawdown: 0.58% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 4.14 - Long-term excess return: 1.65% - Short-term excess return: 1.36%[28][29]. - **30-Year YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 7.34% - Maximum drawdown: 4.27% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 1.72 - Short-term annualized return (since end-2024): 3.03% - Maximum drawdown: 0.92% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 3.31 - Long-term excess return: 2.43% - Short-term excess return: 2.97%[28][29][33]. 2. Multi-Cycle Timing Model for US Interest Rates - The report does not provide specific backtesting results for the US model, but the current signal is "neutral" based on the latest data[21]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Interest Rate Structure Indicators (Level, Term, Convexity) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Transform YTM data into structural indicators (level, term, and convexity) to analyze the interest rate market from a mean-reversion perspective[7]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Level Structure**: Represents the average interest rate level. - Current value: 1.63% - Historical percentiles: 25% (3 years), 15% (5 years), 7% (10 years)[7]. - **Term Structure**: Represents the slope of the yield curve. - Current value: 0.45% - Historical percentiles: 34% (3 years), 21% (5 years), 23% (10 years)[7]. - **Convexity Structure**: Represents the curvature of the yield curve. - Current value: 0.01% - Historical percentiles: 26% (3 years), 16% (5 years), 13% (10 years)[7]. - **Factor Evaluation**: These indicators provide a comprehensive view of the interest rate market's structural characteristics, aiding in timing and allocation decisions[7]. --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Interest Rate Structure Indicators**: - The report does not provide specific backtesting results for these factors, but their historical percentiles indicate their relative positioning in the market[7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of AI applications, highlighting the competitive landscape for AI operating systems as companies like Alibaba and ByteDance launch new products [6][21]. - It suggests a strategic focus on the fintech sector, particularly in light of recent regulatory changes that may encourage insurance companies to increase market participation [27][28]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry comprises 286 stocks with a total market capitalization of 4220.9 billion and a circulating market value of 3742.6 billion [3]. - Recent performance metrics show a 1-month absolute performance of -4.3%, a 6-month performance of 17.2%, and a 12-month performance of 16.4% [5]. Recent Developments - ByteDance launched the "Doubao" mobile assistant, enhancing user interaction through AI capabilities [9][11]. - DeepSeek introduced two new models, DeepSeek-V3.2 and DeepSeek-V3.2-Speciale, which exhibit leading inference capabilities in the global market [16][20]. - Amazon unveiled its new AI training chip, Trainium 3, aimed at competing with Nvidia and Google in the AI chip market [21][22]. Market Performance Review - The computer sector experienced a decline of 1.73% in the first week of December 2025, with notable gainers including Hangtian Zhizhuang and Dineike [29][30].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Short-term Timing Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on historical data and statistical rules to identify short-term market timing signals, combining macroeconomic, valuation, sentiment, and liquidity indicators to generate a comprehensive timing signal[16][17][19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Macroeconomic Indicators**: - Manufacturing PMI: If PMI > 50, it gives a positive signal; otherwise, a cautious signal. - Credit Pulse: The YoY growth rate of medium- and long-term RMB loans is used, with a higher percentile indicating a positive signal. - M1 YoY Growth Rate: Filtered using HP filter; higher percentiles indicate a positive signal. 2. **Valuation Indicators**: - PE Median Percentile: A higher percentile indicates a cautious signal due to mean reversion. - PB Median Percentile: A higher percentile also indicates a cautious signal due to mean reversion. 3. **Sentiment Indicators**: - Beta Dispersion: Neutral signal if within a certain range. - Volume Sentiment Score: Lower percentiles indicate a cautious signal. - Volatility: Neutral signal if within a certain range. 4. **Liquidity Indicators**: - Money Market Rate: Lower percentiles indicate a positive signal. - Exchange Rate Expectation: A stronger RMB against the USD gives a positive signal. - 5-day average net financing amount: Lower percentiles indicate a positive signal. 5. Combine all signals to generate a comprehensive timing signal[16][17][19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates significant improvement over the benchmark strategy, with higher annualized returns, lower maximum drawdown, and better Sharpe ratio[18][21] 2. Model Name: Growth-Value Style Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses a quantitative economic mid-cycle analysis framework, incorporating profitability, interest rate, and credit cycles to determine the relative attractiveness of growth versus value styles[26][27] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Macroeconomic Indicators**: - Profitability Cycle Slope: A steeper slope favors growth. - Interest Rate Cycle Level: Higher levels favor value. - Credit Cycle Strength: A stronger credit cycle favors growth. 2. **Valuation Indicators**: - Growth-Value PE Spread: A higher 5-year percentile indicates a preference for growth. - Growth-Value PB Spread: A higher 5-year percentile also indicates a preference for growth. 3. **Sentiment Indicators**: - Turnover Spread: A higher 5-year percentile indicates a preference for growth. - Volatility Spread: A higher 5-year percentile indicates a balanced preference for both growth and value. 4. Combine all signals to generate a comprehensive style rotation signal[26][27][28] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy has shown significant improvement over the benchmark, with higher annualized returns, lower maximum drawdown, and better Sharpe ratio. However, in 2025, the strategy underperformed the benchmark slightly[27][29] 3. Model Name: Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Style Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on 11 effective rotation indicators, including liquidity, sentiment, and valuation metrics, to determine the relative attractiveness of small-cap versus large-cap styles[30] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Indicators Used**: - Indicators such as R007, financing balance changes, trading volume, and sentiment metrics are analyzed. - For each indicator, a signal is generated to favor either small-cap or large-cap styles. 2. **Comprehensive Signal**: - Combine all individual signals into a comprehensive small-cap or large-cap rotation signal. - The model currently favors large-cap due to weak small-cap indicators such as low trading volume and negative sentiment[30][32] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy has consistently generated positive annual excess returns since 2014, with a significant improvement over the benchmark in terms of annualized returns and maximum drawdown[31][32] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Short-term Timing Strategy - Annualized Return: 16.41% - Annualized Volatility: 14.81% - Maximum Drawdown: 14.07% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.9655 - Return-to-Drawdown Ratio: 1.1667 - Monthly Win Rate: 66.24% - Quarterly Win Rate: 60.38% - Annual Win Rate: 78.57%[18][21] 2. Growth-Value Style Rotation Model - Annualized Return: 12.74% - Annualized Volatility: 20.80% - Maximum Drawdown: 43.07% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.5853 - Return-to-Drawdown Ratio: 0.2958 - Monthly Win Rate: 58.33% - Quarterly Win Rate: 59.62%[29] 3. Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Style Rotation Model - Annualized Return: 19.73% - Annualized Excess Return: 12.67% - Maximum Drawdown: 40.70% - Average Turnover Interval: 20 trading days - Win Rate (per trade): 49.57%[32]

Group 1: Policy Changes Impacting A-Share Market - Recent policies focus on capital market and consumption, with adjustments in insurance capital risk factors and regulations for listed companies, emphasizing service consumption in cultural tourism and sports [2][5] - The upcoming Political Bureau meeting and Central Economic Work Conference in December are expected to address policies promoting domestic demand, new industry policies, and major project developments [5][20] - The adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies is anticipated to release significant capital into the market, potentially increasing investment in large-cap stocks and previously adjusted sectors [8][10][11] Group 2: Market Trends and Performance - The A-share market has shown an upward trend, driven by factors such as a decrease in U.S. ADP employment data, which raised expectations for a Fed rate cut, and improved foreign investment sentiment towards A-shares [5][6] - The manufacturing PMI rose in November, indicating improved economic conditions, with notable price increases in industrial metals, chemicals, and the semiconductor sector [5][6] - The overall valuation of A-shares has increased, with the Wind All A Index PE (TTM) rising to 66.4% historical percentile, reflecting a positive market sentiment [5][6] Group 3: Consumption Policies - Recent consumption policies emphasize service consumption, particularly in cultural tourism and sports, aligning with previous government strategies to enhance service supply [18][19] - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the Civil Aviation Administration have set goals to improve tourism services and expand domestic and international travel routes by 2027 [18][19] - The focus on service consumption is expected to continue, with potential fiscal subsidies linked to service consumption initiatives [18][19] Group 4: Future Economic Meetings - The Political Bureau and Central Economic Work Conference are expected to maintain a positive policy tone, focusing on domestic demand, industry policies, and infrastructure investments [20] - The meetings are likely to reinforce consumer support policies and enhance fiscal measures aimed at improving living standards and boosting service consumption [20] - Infrastructure projects are anticipated to commence, maintaining a high growth rate in construction investments [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the banking industry [2] Core Insights - The banking sector is experiencing a significant adjustment in long-term bonds, with a projected interest rate increase of 25-42 basis points, aligning with the "asset shortage" logic [14][15] - There is an ongoing demand for banks to realize floating profits from bond markets, particularly as the high base from the previous year's Q4 is expected to exert greater pressure on profit realization this year [14][15] - The report outlines three scenarios for revenue growth in 2025, indicating that banks may need to sell bonds worth approximately 0.20 trillion to 1.14 trillion yuan depending on the revenue growth target [15][19] Summary by Sections Section 1: Floating Profit Realization and EVE Indicator Impact - The report discusses the ongoing pressure for banks to realize floating profits in December, with expectations of significant bond sales to support stable performance [14][15] - It highlights the need for banks to manage duration risk effectively, as the current structure of liabilities is shortening, which may impact stability [16][17] Section 2: Loan and Bond Yield Comparison - The report provides insights into the yield comparison between loans and bonds, indicating a need for banks to adjust their strategies in response to changing market conditions [8] Section 3: Deposit Rate Tracking - The report tracks changes in deposit rates, noting adjustments made by specific banks to their deposit rates, which may influence overall funding costs [6] Section 4: Bill Discounting Volume and Price Tracking - The report analyzes the trends in bill discounting, indicating a significant drop in short-term bill rates while highlighting seasonal patterns in the market [24][25] Section 5: Central Bank Dynamics and Market Rate Tracking - The report details the central bank's operations, including reverse repos and liquidity management, which are crucial for maintaining market stability [25][26] Section 6: Government Debt Financing and Fiscal Strength Tracking - The report discusses the government's debt financing activities and their implications for fiscal policy, emphasizing the need for careful monitoring of future fiscal measures [26] Section 7: Interbank Certificate of Deposit Tracking - The report notes a positive net financing position for interbank certificates of deposit, indicating a shift in funding strategies among banks [28]

证券研究报告 | 宏观预测报告 2025 年 12 月 6 日 固定资产投资增速或仍偏弱 —2025 年 11 月宏观经济预测报告 频率：每月 点评报告 相关报告 1、《服务消费淡季回调明显— —11 月 PMI 数据点评》2025- 12-6 | 张静静 | S1090522050003 | | --- | --- | | zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn | | | 张岸天 | S1090522070002 | | zhangantian@cmschina.com.cn | | | 罗 丹 | S1090524070004 | | luodan7@cmschina.com.cn | | | 张玉书 | 研究助理 | | zhangyushu@cmschina.com.cn | | | 赵兴举 | 研究助理 | zhaoxingju@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 表 1：宏观经济指标实际值、预测值与未来方向 | 分类 | 预测指标 | 10 月实际 | 11 月预测 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 制造业 PMI（%） | ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time, considering the scarcity of smart imaging brands and the growth potential of its business [1][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the company's position as a leading brand in smart imaging, expanding from handheld devices to the drone market, and emphasizes its innovative products and technological leadership [1][6][7]. - The company is expected to grow its revenue significantly, with projections of 9.6 billion, 14.65 billion, and 19.6 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 1.03 billion, 1.81 billion, and 2.72 billion [7][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2015, has become a leader in the panoramic camera market and is expanding its product lines to include action cameras, wearable cameras, gimbals, and drones, while also starting to develop software services [6][12]. - The revenue distribution in 2024 is expected to be 85.9% from consumer devices, 0.4% from professional devices, and 12.9% from accessories, with significant contributions from regions like China, the US, Europe, and Japan [12][13]. Handheld Imaging Devices - The company is recognized as the leader in the panoramic camera segment, continuously enriching its product line and driving market expansion alongside competitors like DJI [16][33]. - The report indicates that the market for handheld imaging devices could reach hundreds of billions, driven by increasing outdoor activities and social media sharing [18][39]. Drone Market - The drone market is projected to grow significantly, with the company entering this space by leveraging its expertise in panoramic imaging to differentiate itself from competitors like DJI [7][33]. - The report notes that the company has developed proprietary technologies in flight control, obstacle avoidance, and image transmission, which are critical for drone functionality [7][33]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to see substantial revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 66.2% from 2017 to 2024, driven by the success of its panoramic cameras and the introduction of new product lines [13][39]. - The financial outlook includes projected revenues of 9.6 billion in 2025, with a net profit of 1.03 billion, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [8][39]. Software Services - The introduction of cloud services in 2025 is expected to enhance user engagement and provide significant profit potential in the long term [56]. - The software business is anticipated to grow rapidly, benefiting from the integration with existing hardware products and the company's advancements in AI technology [56].

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 05 日 10 月业务量增速放缓，单票价格同比持续修复 快递行业 2025 年 10 月数据跟踪 周期/交通运输 本月关注：关注旺季价格表现和数据验证情况及 26 年反内卷政策持续性。 ❑ 快递行业核心数据：1）业务量同比增速放缓，2025 年 10 月，全国快递业务 量完成 176.0 亿件，同比增长 7.9%，同比增幅较上月下降 4.9pct；2）单票价格 同比跌幅收窄，单票收入为 7.48 元，同比下降 3.0%，同比降幅较上月收窄 1.9pct， 环比下降 0.9%；3）收入，快递业务收入完成 1316.7 亿元，同比增长 4.7%，同 比增幅较上月下降 2.5pct。 ❑ 消费数据：1-10 月社零总额累计实现 41.2 万亿元，同比增长 4.3%，其中 10 月社零总额实现 4.6 万亿元，同比增长 2.9%；1-10 月实物商品网上零售额累计 实现 10.4 万亿元，同比增长 6.3%，根据推算，其中 10 月实物商品网上零售额 实现 1.25 万亿元，同比增长 4.9%；对应 1-10 月累计电商渗透率达 25.2%，同比 下降 0.7p ...