Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the real estate industry, indicating a cautious outlook with potential for stabilization in the market [2][6][41]. Core Insights - The real estate market continues to face pressure, with new construction and sales data showing significant declines. The report highlights a downward trend in new construction area, with an August year-on-year decrease of 20.3%, reflecting a 4.8 percentage point reduction from the previous month [2][42]. - Development investment also remains under pressure, with an August year-on-year decline of 19.5%, indicating that construction intensity is weak due to ongoing challenges in the sales market [2][42]. - The report suggests that the overall investment in construction may exhibit a "W-shaped" fluctuation pattern, with a short-term expectation of no V-shaped recovery [2][42]. Summary by Sections Sales Data - In August, the year-on-year growth rate of sales area adjusted for the base period was -10.6%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. The overall new housing market has shown low-level fluctuations since May [6][15]. - Cumulatively, from January to August, the sales area reached 573 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 4.7% [9][16]. Construction Data - The new construction area in August saw a year-on-year decline of 20.3%, continuing a downward trend. The report anticipates that new construction will show a pattern of rising and then falling in the second half of the year [2][42]. - The completion area in August also experienced a year-on-year decrease of 21.4%, although it showed a slight recovery from the previous month [2][42]. Investment and Funding - The total development investment from January to August was 6 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.9% [9][16]. - Funding sources for real estate projects showed a year-on-year decrease of 8.0% in August, indicating ongoing challenges in the financial landscape for real estate companies [7][9]. Market Trends - The report notes that the average price of new homes in August was 9,601 yuan per square meter, with a year-on-year decline of 2.7% [9][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the gap between net rental yields and mortgage rates as a key factor influencing total demand in the housing market [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Longfor Group (00960.HK) [1][4][10] Core Insights - The decline in H1 2025 performance is primarily attributed to the decrease in gross margin from development business, while the revenue from operational and service segments continues to grow [2][9] - The company is expected to alleviate debt pressure by the end of 2025, with a marginal recovery in free cash flow, which may enhance investment cycles and boost valuations [1][10] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, total revenue was 588 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 25%, while pre-tax profit and net profit decreased by 30% and 45% respectively [2][3] - The gross margin for the overall business fell by 8.0 percentage points to 12.6%, with the development business gross margin dropping by 6.2 percentage points to 0.2% [2][3] - The company reported a core net profit of 14 billion CNY for H1 2025, a decrease of 71% year-on-year [2] Debt and Cash Flow Analysis - The company has successfully reduced its debt scale, with total interest-bearing debt at 169.8 billion CNY, down 9% year-on-year [9] - By the end of 2025, the company is expected to have significantly eased its funding pressure, with a net debt ratio of 51% [9][10] Earnings Forecast - Expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.71, 0.89, and 1.14 CNY per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.3, 12.1, and 9.5 [1][10]

Overall Overview - The revenue growth of Hong Kong stocks is at a historical low, with a decline of 0.9% in 1H25, while net profit growth improved by 5.4% [4][11][28] - The overall profitability of Hong Kong stocks has improved, with a net profit margin increase despite a decline in operating profit margin [15][21] - The industry structure shows significant differentiation, with new economy sectors like information technology and healthcare performing well, while traditional sectors like real estate and energy are struggling [4][28] Revenue and Profit Trends - In 1H25, the revenue growth for the entire Hong Kong stock market was -0.9%, while the revenue growth excluding financials, oil, and real estate was 0.5% [7][11] - The net profit growth for all Hong Kong stocks was 5.4%, with a notable 11.7% growth excluding financials, oil, and real estate [11][12] - The performance of the Hang Seng Index component companies showed a revenue growth of 2.6%, indicating better resilience among larger firms [7][11] Industry Performance - The fastest revenue growth was observed in information technology (12.3%), consumer discretionary (8.5%), and financials (5.2%), while the largest declines were in real estate (-20.9%), energy (-9%), and utilities (-4.8%) [4][28] - The healthcare sector saw a remarkable net profit growth of 202.9%, driven by continuous achievements in innovative drug development [4][28] - New economy sectors experienced an 8.4% revenue growth and a 31.7% net profit growth, contrasting with a 2.5% revenue decline and stagnant net profit in traditional sectors [4][28] Inventory Cycle and Capital Expenditure - The overall Hong Kong stock market is undergoing a destocking phase, with upstream industries reducing inventory while downstream sectors are entering a replenishment cycle [4][28] - Capital expenditure has significantly contracted across most industries, with only e-commerce and automotive sectors showing expansion, albeit at a maintenance level [4][28] Financial Metrics - The overall return on equity (ROE) for Hong Kong stocks reached 7.0%, recovering to historical average levels [23][24] - The operating cash flow for the Hang Seng Index improved significantly, while other companies faced cash flow deterioration and reduced capital expenditures [21][22] Conclusion - The report highlights a clear divide between the performance of new and old economy sectors, with the former showing resilience and growth potential, while the latter faces significant challenges [4][28]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 09 月 17 日 银行研思录 17 上市银行债市浮盈余额有多少？ 总量研究/银行 三季度以来，长债利率回调较多，且目前已进入季末月，市场对于银行卖债规 模和节奏较为关注。我们前期报告《银行债市浮盈拆解与展望 2025H1&Q3》 中对银行 25Q3 的卖债力度进行了展望，那么目前银行配置户浮盈规模合计有 多少？能否支撑后续的消耗，本篇报告将进行盘点。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 41 | 0.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 10870.0 | 10.5 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 10193.7 | 10.8 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -4.2 8.9 35.9 相对表现 -11.8 -4.0 -7.3 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep/24 Jan/25 May/25 Aug/25 (%) 银行 沪深300 相关报告 行业点评报告 1、《M1 增速高点判断逻辑和测算— 2025 年 8 月 金 融 数 据 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the M1 growth rate continued to rebound in August, while the M2-M1 differential narrowed, reflecting the ongoing activation of time deposits [10][15][13] - Non-bank deposits increased year-on-year in August, with significant increases in non-bank financial institution deposits, while household and corporate deposits saw varying degrees of decline [13][15] - The trend of households and enterprises moving time deposits into investment and wealth management continues, driven by active trading in the equity market and improving profit effects [10][15] Group 2 - The report highlights that the financing balance increased, with net buying of financing reaching 636.7 billion yuan, indicating improved trading activity in the market [30][41] - The net outflow from ETFs was 44.5 billion yuan, while new equity public funds saw a decrease in issuance [30][41] - The report notes that the sectors of electric power equipment, non-bank financials, and non-ferrous metals received significant net inflows from various funds [51][52] Group 3 - The report mentions that the U.S. labor market continues to weaken, with August CPI aligning with market expectations, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - The report states that the market sentiment improved, with a decrease in the VIX index and an increase in risk appetite in overseas markets [43][44] - The report indicates that the trading activity in various style indices and major industry turnover rates generally decreased [47]

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 9 月 16 日 如何衡量居民增量资金入市热度和潜力？ ——A 股投资启示录（三十） 当前银行存款和理财产品收益率处于历史低位，而股票市场赚钱效应持续积累， A 股内在回报率持续提升，规模庞大的增量资金极有可能涌入股票和基金市场推 动 A 股迎来一轮大级别上行行情。基于此，我们构建了增量资金入市的潜力和热 度指标，目前来看潜力指标尚处于历史均值以下，热度指标处于均值+1 倍标准差 以下，距离历史高位仍有较大增长空间。当前融资余额持续增长、私募基金规模 持续攀升、个人投资者开户数活跃，成为当前增量资金入市的主要渠道。展望后 市，偏股公募基金有望继续接力，外资也有望继续净流入成为重要的增量资金来 源。参考前两轮牛市，估算潜在增量资金仍有 5.4 万亿元。 专题报告 相关报告 《重估 A 股的基本原理：权重 指数篇——A 股投资启示录 （二十九）》 《主力何在？增量资金属性 与市场主线风格——A 股投 资启示录（二十八）》 《静态投资框架十问——A 股投资启示录（二十七）》 《基于 FCF-ROE 和 DCF 定 价模型的策略框架——A 股 投资启示录（二十六）》 《定 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai, indicating an attractive investment opportunity due to improving sales and investor returns [2][4]. Core Insights - The market dynamics for Guizhou Moutai have shown significant improvement since August, with a notable increase in terminal sales, suggesting a positive market outlook [1][2]. - The company is focusing on building a normalized market value management system, emphasizing multi-dimensional strategies to enhance investor returns, including dividends, buybacks, and sincere communication with investors [2][8]. - Guizhou Moutai aims to adapt to changing consumer trends by transitioning from merely selling products to offering lifestyle experiences, thereby solidifying its brand position [8]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected total revenue for Guizhou Moutai is expected to grow from 150,560 million yuan in 2023 to 213,295 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5% [3][16]. - The company's net profit is forecasted to increase from 74,734 million yuan in 2023 to 104,852 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [3][16]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 59.49 yuan in 2023 to 83.47 yuan in 2027, indicating strong profitability [3][16]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 25.5 in 2023 to 18.2 in 2027, suggesting that the stock may become more attractive over time [4][16]. Market Performance - Guizhou Moutai's stock has shown a 5% increase over the past month, while its relative performance against the CSI 300 index has been weaker over the past 6 and 12 months [6]. - The company has been actively engaging with distributors and investors to strengthen market confidence, particularly in light of the upcoming traditional festivals [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company demonstrates resilience in performance through cost reduction and efficiency improvements, countering the decline in coal prices [1]. - The company is actively pursuing an integrated business model, enhancing its operational stability and future profitability [5][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 138.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.64 billion yuan, down 12.0% [1]. - The operating cash flow for the same period was 45.79 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.7% decline [1]. - The average selling price of coal decreased by 12.9% to 493 yuan per ton, while the production cost per ton fell by 7.7% to 177.7 yuan [5]. Business Segments - **Coal Business**: The company produced 165 million tons of coal, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, with total coal sales down 10.9% to 205 million tons [5]. - **Electricity Business**: The company generated 98.78 billion kWh of electricity, a decline of 7.4%, with an average selling price of 386 yuan/MWh, down 4.2% [5]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about demand growth in the second half of 2025, anticipating a national electricity consumption increase of 5%-6% year-on-year [5]. - Ongoing projects and asset acquisitions are expected to enhance the company's integrated operations and overall profitability [5]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a mid-year dividend of 0.98 yuan per share, totaling 19.47 billion yuan, which represents 79% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [5]. Earnings Forecast - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 50.52 billion yuan, 52.43 billion yuan, and 55.05 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.54 yuan, 2.64 yuan, and 2.77 yuan [6][7].

Industrial Production - In August, the industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.7% in July, but still above 5%[4] - Manufacturing value added increased by 5.7%, outpacing overall industrial growth by 0.5 percentage points, reinforcing its core support role[4] - High-tech manufacturing saw a significant expansion with a year-on-year growth of 9.3%, indicating strong momentum in emerging industries[4] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to August, national fixed asset investment grew by 0.5% year-on-year, a notable decline from 1.6% in the first seven months, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.20% in August[4] - Excluding real estate development investment, the cumulative growth rate reached 4.2%, highlighting real estate as a major drag on overall investment[4] - Private fixed asset investment fell by 2.3%, worsening from a 1.5% decline in the previous period, indicating weak vitality in private investment[4] Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment dropped by 12.9% year-on-year from January to August, with the decline accelerating from 12.0% in the first seven months[4] - In August alone, real estate investment fell by 19.5%, marking the largest monthly decline of the year[4] - New housing starts decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, reflecting developers' cautious long-term outlook despite a slight narrowing of the decline compared to mid-year[4] Consumer Spending - In August, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, a 0.3 percentage point decrease from the previous month[5] - The "trade-in" policy positively impacted sales, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment rising by 14.3% and furniture by 18.6%[5] - Service retail sales grew by 5.1% year-on-year from January to August, continuing to outpace goods retail sales, driven by strong demand in tourism and cultural entertainment[5] Economic Outlook - The economy is expected to maintain recovery momentum, with GDP growth projected to reach around 5% for the year, despite anticipated slower growth in the third quarter compared to the second[5] - Risks include the potential slower-than-expected recovery of domestic demand, which could impact overall economic performance[5]

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 09 月 16 日 政策加力的可能性提高 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 35 期） 频率：每周 7 月政治局会议要求政策适时加力，目前宏观经济数据已经连续 3 个月增速放 缓，政策加力的可能性或许正在提高。 风险提示：地缘政治风险、国内政策落地不及预期、全球衰退及主要经济体货 币政策超预期。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《港股上市央国企动态系列 报告之 2——香港资本市场制度 不断完善，为央国企市值管理 创造条件》2025-09-15 2、《关注中美第四轮经贸会谈 ———国际时政周评》2025-09- 14 3、《中美谈判的预期回摆—— 宏观与大类资产周报》2025-09- 14 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 6 月以来国内宏观经济数据呈现连续走弱的趋势，这既体现在金融数据方 面，也体现在实体经济数据方面。按照当前数据走势，下半年经济下行压力 将进一步提升。 金融数据方面，得益于 ...