Economic Indicators - In May, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000, exceeding the market expectation of 130,000[10] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2% to 62.4%[10] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%[10] Labor Market Trends - The downward revision of non-farm payrolls for the previous two months totaled a decrease of 95,000[10] - The number of voluntary job leavers has significantly decreased, indicating potential labor market weakness[10] - Initial jobless claims in recent weeks suggest a possible rebound in the unemployment rate, although this is not reflected in the current non-farm report due to the declining labor participation rate[10] Macro Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is showing signs of moderate weakening, with the possibility of a global economic slowdown increasing[3] - The U.S. dollar is currently positioned in the middle of the "smile curve," typically strengthening during periods of strong economic performance or severe recession, and weakening during moderate economic slowdowns[3] - A significant risk is posed by potential severe recession or strong economic growth, which could cause the dollar to move towards the extremes of the smile curve[4] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance in upcoming meetings, with market pricing indicating two potential rate cuts within the year[28] - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the need for data-driven adjustments to monetary policy, maintaining a focus on achieving full employment and price stability[24] - Concerns about trade barriers potentially increasing inflation risks were raised by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee[26]

周五公布的美国非农就业数据印证了美国经济仍处于温和走弱 的趋势中。虽然 5 月新增就业人数高于预期，失业率维持稳定，缓解 了此前 ADP 就业数据引发的衰退担忧。但这份就业报告也释放出一些 边际走软的信号：前两个月的非农就业人数再次出现下修；在失业人 口中，主动离职者的数量明显下降；同时近几周初请失业金人数也反 映了未来可能出现的失业率反弹，只是由于劳动参与率下降的关系， 并没有反映在本次非农报告上。 证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-06-10 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《美关税不确定下，日元资产的演化路 径》 - 2025.06.09 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：美元处于"微笑曲线"中间 ⚫ 核心观点： 关税虽然从此前极高的水平有所下降，但谈判过程仍然冗长且进 展缓慢，而对经济造成的负面影响已难以避免。美国乃至全球经济温 和走弱的可能性正在上升，美元目前正处于"微笑曲线"的中间 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][39]. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector has shown a slight increase, with the agricultural index rising by 0.91%, ranking 20th among 31 primary industries [5][12]. - The pig market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to a continuous decline in prices, with the average price of pigs at 14.17 CNY/kg as of June 8, 2025, down 0.64% from the previous week [6][16]. - The white feather chicken market is experiencing stable yet slight adjustments in prices, with chick prices at 2.90 CNY/chick and meat chicken prices at 3.60 CNY/jin, both showing a decline [30][31]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector has rebounded, with the agricultural index increasing by 0.91%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13% [12]. - Among sub-sectors, planting and agricultural product processing led the gains, while meat chicken breeding and animal vaccine sectors faced significant adjustments [13][14]. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pigs - The pig price is under pressure, with a continued downward trend expected due to strong supply and weak demand [6][19]. - As of June 6, 2025, self-breeding pigs have a profit of approximately 33 CNY per head, while purchased piglets incur a loss of 121 CNY per head [17][20]. - The breeding stock remains stable, with the number of breeding sows fluctuating between 40-41 million, indicating controlled supply growth for 2025 [19][29]. White Feather Chicken - Chick prices are experiencing slight adjustments, with a focus on domestic breeding due to uncertainties in imports caused by avian influenza outbreaks [30][31]. - The industry is currently well-supplied, and domestic breeding enterprises may benefit from reduced overseas imports [30][31]. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have adjusted downwards, with white sugar priced at 6090 CNY/ton, down 25 CNY from the previous week [33]. - Soybean prices have seen a slight increase, with the Brazilian soybean landed price at 3725 CNY/ton, up 1.8% [33]. - Corn prices have shown minor fluctuations, with an average price of 2336 CNY/ton, up 4 CNY from the previous week [33].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][39]. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector has shown a slight rebound, with the agricultural index rising by 0.91%, ranking 20th among 31 primary industries [12][13]. - The pig market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to a continuous decline in prices. As of June 8, 2025, the average price of pigs was 14.17 CNY/kg, down 0.64% from the previous week [6][16]. - The profitability of self-breeding pigs has decreased, with average profits around 33 CNY per head, while external piglets are facing losses of 121 CNY per head [17][20]. - The white feather chicken market is experiencing stable yet slight adjustments in prices, with chick prices at 2.90 CNY per chick and meat chicken prices at 3.60 CNY per jin [30][31]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector index increased by 0.91%, with the pig farming and animal vaccine sectors experiencing significant adjustments [12][13]. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pigs - The pig price is expected to continue its downward trend due to strong supply and weak demand. The supply of pigs is anticipated to increase in the second half of 2025 [6][19]. - The current breeding stock remains stable, with the number of breeding sows fluctuating between 40 million and 41 million, indicating controlled supply growth [19][20]. - Cost competition is expected to be a key focus in 2025, with recommendations to prioritize companies with cost advantages [20]. White Feather Chicken - The chick price has slightly decreased, and the market is currently stable with sufficient supply across the industry [30][31]. - Concerns regarding imported breeds have eased, presenting opportunities for domestic breeding companies [30]. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have adjusted downwards, while soybean prices have seen a slight increase. Cotton prices have shown minor fluctuations, and corn prices have experienced slight increases [33][36].

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 研究助理:冯昱文 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100011 Email:fengyuwen@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《结合基本面和量价特征的 GRU 模 型》 - 2025.06.05 《Claude 4 系列发布，谷歌上线编程 智能体 Jules——AI 动态汇总 20250526》 - 2025.05.27 《谷歌发布智能体白皮书，Manus 全面 开放注册——AI 动态汇总 20250519》 - 2025.05.20 《证监会修改《重组办法》，深化并购 重组改革——微盘股指数周报 20250518》 - 2025.05.19 《通义千问发布 Qwen-3 模型， DeepSeek 发布数理证明大模型——AI 动态汇总 20250505》 - 2025.05.06 《基金 Q1 加仓有色汽车传媒，减仓电 新食饮通信——公募基金 2025Q1 季报 点评》 - 2025.04.30 《泛消费打开连板与涨幅高度，ETF 资 金平铺机 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [5][13]. Core Insights - The domestic EDA (Electronic Design Automation) industry is expected to accelerate its growth due to recent supply chain disruptions affecting major global EDA suppliers, which will likely enhance the company's market position and innovation capabilities [3]. - The company plans to acquire 100% of Chip and Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. to fill critical gaps in its tool offerings and create a comprehensive solution from chip to system level, aligning with industry trends towards system-level optimization [4]. - Revenue projections for the company are optimistic, with expected revenues of 1.595 billion, 2.081 billion, and 2.712 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 201 million, 302 million, and 414 million yuan for the same years [5][9]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 122.91 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 66.7 billion yuan and a total share capital of 543 million shares [2]. - The company has a low debt-to-asset ratio of 11.1% and a high price-to-earnings ratio of 614.55, indicating a strong financial position but also a potentially overvalued stock [2].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Diffusion Index Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The diffusion index is used to monitor the critical points of market trend changes, helping to identify potential buy or sell signals based on the distribution of stock price movements within the micro-cap index components [5][35]. - **Model Construction Process**: The diffusion index is calculated by analyzing the relative price changes of micro-cap index components over a specific time window. For example, if all stocks in the index drop by 5% after 5 days, the diffusion index value is 0.37. The formula and methodology involve tracking the relative price changes over different time horizons (e.g., 10 to 20 trading days) and calculating the index value based on the distribution of these changes [35][37]. - **Model Evaluation**: The diffusion index remains in a high volatility range, indicating that the market is neither "too expensive" nor "too cheap." It is sensitive to large price movements, which can trigger buy or sell signals [5][36]. 2. Model Name: Threshold Methods (First and Delayed) - **Model Construction Idea**: These methods aim to provide trading signals (e.g., open or close positions) based on predefined threshold values of the diffusion index [5][39][43]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **First Threshold Method**: Triggered when the diffusion index crosses a specific threshold. For instance, on May 8, 2025, the index value of 0.9850 triggered a sell signal [39]. - **Delayed Threshold Method**: Similar to the first method but with a delayed response. For example, on May 15, 2025, the index value of 0.8975 triggered a sell signal [43]. - **Model Evaluation**: These methods are effective for identifying turning points in the market but may require careful calibration to avoid false signals [5][43]. 3. Model Name: Dual Moving Average Method - **Model Construction Idea**: This method adapts to market trends by using two moving averages to generate trading signals [5][44]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Signals are generated when the short-term moving average crosses the long-term moving average. For example, on April 30, 2025, the method provided a buy signal [44]. - **Model Evaluation**: The dual moving average method is adaptive and suitable for trending markets but may lag in highly volatile conditions [5][44]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Diffusion Index Model - Current value: 0.79 (as of June 6, 2025) [35][36] 2. Threshold Methods - **First Threshold Method**: Triggered a sell signal at 0.9850 on May 8, 2025 [39] - **Delayed Threshold Method**: Triggered a sell signal at 0.8975 on May 15, 2025 [43] 3. Dual Moving Average Method - Provided a buy signal on April 30, 2025 [44] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Free Float Ratio Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the proportion of freely tradable shares to total shares, indicating liquidity [4][16]. - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as the ratio of free float shares to total shares. Weekly rank IC: 0.091; historical average: -0.012 [4][16]. 2. Factor Name: Dividend Yield Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Represents the annual dividend as a percentage of the stock price, reflecting income generation potential [4][16]. - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as annual dividends divided by the current stock price. Weekly rank IC: 0.085; historical average: 0.021 [4][16]. 3. Factor Name: Leverage Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Indicates the financial leverage of a company, reflecting its debt-to-equity ratio [4][16]. - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as total debt divided by total equity. Weekly rank IC: 0.072; historical average: -0.006 [4][16]. 4. Factor Name: Single-Quarter ROE Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the return on equity for a single quarter, indicating profitability [4][16]. - **Factor Construction Process**: Calculated as net income divided by shareholders' equity for a single quarter. Weekly rank IC: -0.002; historical average: 0.023 [4][16]. 5. Factor Name: Standardized Expected Earnings Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the market's expectations of future earnings, standardized for comparison [4][16]. - **Factor Construction Process**: Derived from analysts' earnings forecasts, adjusted for standardization. Weekly rank IC: -0.008; historical average: 0.014 [4][16]. --- Factor Backtesting Results Top 5 Factors (Weekly Rank IC) 1. Free Float Ratio Factor: 0.091 [4][16] 2. Dividend Yield Factor: 0.085 [4][16] 3. Leverage Factor: 0.072 [4][16] 4. Single-Quarter ROE Factor: -0.002 [4][16] 5. Standardized Expected Earnings Factor: -0.008 [4][16] Bottom 5 Factors (Weekly Rank IC) 1. Unadjusted Stock Price Factor: -0.153 [4][16] 2. Nonlinear Market Cap Factor: -0.119 [4][16] 3. Logarithmic Market Cap Factor: -0.119 [4][16] 4. PB Reciprocal Factor: -0.116 [4][16] 5. Profitability Factor: -0.084 [4][16]

证券研究报告：计算机 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入 |维持 个股表现 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 -15% -1% 13% 27% 41% 55% 69% 83% 97% 111% 125% 概伦电子 计算机 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 27.66 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）4.35 | / 1.78 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）120 | / 49 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 31.79 / 12.55 | | | 资产负债率(%) | 20.0% | | | 市盈率 | -125.73 | | | 第一大股东 | KLProTech | H.K. | | Limited | | | 筹划通过发行股份及支付现金购买锐成芯微 100%和纳能微 45.64%股份，构建"EDA+IP"双引擎。参照国际 EDA 巨头如新思科技 和铿腾电子的发展路径，EDA 和 IP 的深度协同是领先 EDA 企业发展 的必经之路，也是推动集成电 ...

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a fixed - income report released on June 9, 2025 [1] - Analysts are Liang Weichao (SAC registration number: S1340523070001) and Cui Chao (SAC registration number: S1340523120001) [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production is stable with a slight decline, real estate shows continuous marginal improvement, prices have a marginal recovery, and shipping indices continue to rise significantly. Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation of new growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and changes in US tariff policies [2][31] Group 3: Production - In the week of June 6, the capacity utilization rate of coke ovens decreased by 0.15 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.31 pct, and the output of rebar decreased by 7.05 tons. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt increased by 3.6 pct, the PX operating rate increased by 4.91 pct, and the PTA operating rate increased by 6.1 pct. The operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 1.33 pct, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 4.39 pct [3][10][11] Group 4: Demand - In the week of June 1, the real estate market continued to improve, with the transaction area of commercial housing rising and the inventory - to - sales ratio falling. The land transaction area increased, and the premium rate of residential land transactions decreased. The movie box office increased by 235 million yuan compared with the previous week. In the week of May 31, the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 34,500 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 80,700 vehicles. In the week of June 6, the shipping index SCFI rose 8.09%, CCFI rose 3.34%, and BDI rose 15.16% [3][14][20] Group 5: Prices - In the week of June 6, Brent crude oil prices rose 4.02% to $66.47 per barrel, coking coal futures prices rose 5.06% to 779 yuan per ton. The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.83%, +0.12%, and +1.25% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures prices rose 0.64%. The overall price of agricultural products decreased, with the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by - 0.97%, - 2.96%, +0.46%, and - 0.64% respectively compared with the previous week [3][22][24] Group 6: Logistics - In the week of June 7, the subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai decreased, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline. In the week of May 28, the number of domestic and international flights decreased [4][27][29]

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-06-09 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《5 月制造业生产活力提升，稳需求政 策发力空间打开》 - 2025.06.03 宏观研究 美关税不确定下，日元资产的演化路径 核心观点 （1）美国关税政策成为 9 月日本加息关键变量，利差交易平仓 或冲击全球资产 近三年日本通胀居高不下，一直维持在日本央行 2%的通胀目标水 平之上，特别是进入 2025 年以来，日本 CPI 同比增速处于 3.5%以上 水平，日本核心 CPI 同比增速亦保持在 3%以上，成为制约日本内需的 重要因素。日本通胀的根源在哪？是大米等食品价格推升，还是工资 -通胀螺旋自我强化机制的确立？这不仅决定了日本通胀的可持续 性，亦会影响日本央行货币政策的操作。 日本通胀高企，工业产品是主要支撑，大米等农产品并非主要推 动力。从商品和服务两个维度来看，日本商品价格高涨是日本通胀高 企的 ...