Export Performance - In April 2025, China's export value increased by 8.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points compared to March[2] - Exports to the US fell by 21.0% year-on-year, a decline of 30.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The overall export growth was supported by a "grab export" phenomenon to markets outside the US, with ASEAN exports rising by 20.8%[4] Import Trends - In April 2025, China's import value decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 4.1 percentage points from March[7] - Imports from the US dropped by 13.8%, with the decline expanding by 4.4 percentage points compared to the previous month[7] - Significant increases in imports from non-US economies, such as a 2.5% rise from Japan and a 7.3% increase from South Korea, were noted[8] Future Outlook - The impact of the tariff war is expected to intensify, with May exports potentially turning negative, particularly a forecasted 60% decline in exports to the US[5] - Domestic support for foreign trade enterprises will increase, focusing on diversifying international markets and enhancing domestic sales platforms[6] - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49% in April, indicating contraction, with expectations of further declines in imports and overall trade performance in May[10]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In April 2025, China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from March, marking the largest decline in nearly two years[2][3] - The decline is attributed to two main factors: a significant change in the external environment due to increased tariffs from the U.S. and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a decrease in manufacturing activity compared to March[3] - New export orders index fell sharply by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, the lowest level in 28 months, primarily due to high tariffs impacting orders from the U.S.[4] Economic Indicators - The production index for April was 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting weakened market demand[4] - The main raw materials purchasing price index decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.0%, while the factory price index fell by 3.1 percentage points to 44.3%, indicating significant contraction in both indices[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 51.5%, despite a 0.8 percentage point decline, showcasing resilience amid market challenges[5][6] Future Outlook - The construction PMI for April was 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, influenced by a slowdown in real estate investment; however, civil engineering activity index rose to 60.9%, indicating potential for increased infrastructure investment[6] - The central government's recent policy directives emphasize stronger counter-cyclical measures and proactive macroeconomic policies, suggesting a focus on boosting domestic demand and infrastructure investment[7] - It is anticipated that the manufacturing PMI may remain in contraction territory in May but could rebound to around 49.5% due to the implementation of growth-stimulating policies[7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, gold prices corrected due to further slowdown in tariff expectations, decline in risk - aversion sentiment, and profit - taking by long positions. The prices of Shanghai gold futures, gold T + D, COMEX gold futures, and London gold spot all decreased [1]. - This week (the week of April 28), gold prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust. In the short - term, they lack the momentum to rise further. In the long - term, factors such as US tariff pressure, policy uncertainty, and the risk of "stagflation" and economic recession will support gold prices [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - On April 25, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 787.20 yuan/gram, down 3.82 yuan/gram from April 18. The price of gold T + D was 784.93 yuan/gram, down 2.27 yuan/gram. Internationally, the closing price of COMEX gold futures was 3330.20 dollars/ounce, down 11.10 dollars/ounce from April 17, and the price of London gold spot was 3318.76 dollars/ounce, down 8.07 dollars/ounce [4]. - The trading data shows different trends in cumulative price changes, trading volumes, and positions for different gold products [7]. 1.2 Gold Basis - Last Friday, the international gold basis (spot - futures) turned positive to 5.10 dollars/ounce, up 22.55 dollars/ounce from the previous Thursday. The Shanghai gold basis was - 1.11 yuan/gram, up 1.43 yuan/gram from the previous Friday [8]. 1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Spread - Last Friday, the gold domestic - foreign price spread was 16.58 yuan/gram, up from 12.20 yuan/gram the previous Friday. The spread increased because overseas tariff expectations eased, causing the decline of foreign gold prices to be greater than that of domestic ones. The gold - oil ratio slightly increased, the gold - silver ratio slightly decreased, and the gold - copper ratio continued to decline [11]. 1.4 Position Analysis - In terms of spot positions, last week, the gold ETF holdings decreased slightly. As of last Friday, the holdings of the largest SPRD gold ETF were 946.27 tons, down 6.02 tons from the previous Thursday. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T + D increased significantly, up 75.86% from the previous week. - In terms of futures positions, as of April 22, the long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions decreased, while the short positions increased, leading to a continuous decrease in net long positions. The COMEX gold futures inventory continued to decrease, and the SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 15678 kilograms [16]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - Under tariff threats, the Bank of Japan maintains a gradual interest - rate hike stance. It may lower the economic growth forecast from 1.1% to about 0.5% in the next quarterly report [19]. - The IMF downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8% from 3.3% in January. It also lowered the US economic growth forecast and estimated the probability of the US falling into recession in 2025 at 40% [20]. - The US April Markit composite PMI unexpectedly declined to the lowest in 16 months. The manufacturing PMI was higher than expected, but the service PMI and composite PMI were lower than expected [21]. - Trump plans to exempt some tariffs for automakers, but this does not include a 25% tariff on imported complete vehicles and a 25% tariff on imported auto parts starting on May 3 [22]. - In March, US durable goods orders increased by 9.2% month - on - month, but capital goods orders only increased by 0.1% due to tariff concerns [23]. - In March, US existing - home sales dropped by 5.9% month - on - month, the largest decline since November 2022 [24]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - On April 24, Fed Governor Waller warned that the trade war might lead to an increase in unemployment. If tariffs remain unchanged, there will be no significant impact on the US economy before July. If tariffs rise, he may support interest - rate cuts. - Cleveland Fed President Hamark believes that the Fed should be patient with monetary policy in the face of high uncertainty and may take action as early as June if there is clear evidence of the economic direction [33]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - Last week, the US dollar index rebounded slightly during fluctuations. As the US Treasury Secretary hinted at the easing of Sino - US trade tensions and Trump said he had no intention of firing Fed Chairman Powell, market risk appetite recovered, driving the dollar index up 0.36% to 99.58 as of last Friday [34]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - Last week, the speeches of Fed officials boosted market expectations of interest - rate cuts, causing the 10 - year TIPS yield to decline by 9bp to 2.02% as of last Friday [36]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - It is difficult for the Israeli - Palestinian sides to reach a cease - fire agreement, and the Russia - Ukraine situation remains uncertain. The Israeli military continued to bomb Gaza, and Qatar's Prime Minister said that there was some progress in a new cease - fire agreement in Gaza but a complete cease - fire was hard to achieve. Russia claimed to have recaptured the Kursk region, while Ukraine refuted it [40].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On April 27, the overall capital market was balanced, with a slight increase in capital prices. The bond market showed narrow - range fluctuations due to light trading on the make - up working day [1]. - The profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size in Q1 2025 turned from a decline to an increase, and the revenue growth rate continued to accelerate, creating favorable conditions for profit recovery [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - In Q1 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size turned from a year - on - year decline of 3.3% in the previous year to an increase of 0.8%. In March, the profit growth rate was 2.6%, up from a 0.3% decline from January to February. The revenue growth rate also continued to accelerate [3]. - Six departments issued a notice to optimize the tax - refund policy for outbound travelers, aiming to boost inbound consumption [4]. - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng called on the IMF to adjust share ratios to increase the representation of emerging markets and developing countries [4]. - In Q1 2025, 30 private enterprises in the inter - bank market issued over 60 billion yuan of debt financing instruments to support new productive forces [5]. - "Second - to - first - home" mortgage borrowers meeting relevant conditions can enjoy special additional deductions for housing loan interest [6]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open Market Operations** - On April 27, the central bank conducted 90 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.50%, with a net capital injection of 90 billion yuan as there were no reverse repurchase maturities [8]. - **Capital Interest Rates** - On April 27, the capital market was balanced, but capital prices rose slightly. DR001 rose 2.67bp to 1.608%, and DR007 rose 7.72bp to 1.713% [9]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Bearing Bonds** - On April 27, the bond market showed narrow - range fluctuations due to light trading. The yields of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250004 and the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250205 remained unchanged [12]. - There were no treasury bond or CDB bond issuances on that day [13]. - **Credit Bonds** - Credit bond events include announcements from various companies such as non - downward revision of conversion prices, inability to disclose financial statements on time, cancellation of bond issuances, and changes in financial performance [15][16]. - **Convertible Bonds** - On April 27, Guanglian Convertible Bond announced no downward revision of the conversion price and would not choose to revise it downward in the next 6 months if the downward - revision clause is triggered again [15].

Revenue Performance - In March 2025, national general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year, an improvement from a decline of 1.6% in January-February[1] - Cumulative general public budget revenue for Q1 2025 decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, lower than the full-year growth rate of the previous year[2] - Cumulative government fund revenue for Q1 2025 fell by 11.0% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 10.7% in January-February[1] Expenditure Trends - Cumulative general public budget expenditure for Q1 2025 grew by 4.2% year-on-year, an acceleration of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous year[6] - In March 2025, general public budget expenditure increased by 5.7% year-on-year, up 2.3 percentage points from January-February[8] - Cumulative government fund expenditure for Q1 2025 rose by 11.1% year-on-year, significantly higher than the 1.2% growth in January-February[1] Tax Revenue Insights - In Q1 2025, tax revenue decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 8.8%[3] - In March 2025, corporate income tax revenue surged by 16.0% year-on-year, a significant increase of 26.4 percentage points compared to January-February[4] - Personal income tax revenue in March 2025 plummeted by 58.5% year-on-year, contrasting with a 26.7% increase in January-February, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival[4] Land Market and Special Bonds - Cumulative land use rights transfer revenue in Q1 2025 fell by 15.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing weakness in the real estate market[9] - The issuance of special bonds in Q1 2025 was significantly high, contributing to a substantial increase in government fund expenditure[9] - Future issuance of special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds in April 2025 is expected to enhance investment and consumption stability[9]

资金面快速转松；特朗普称或将"大幅降低"对华关税，债市小幅调整 【内容摘要】4 月 23 日，资金面快速转松，主要回购利率大幅下行；债市小幅调整；转债市 场继续上涨，转债个券多数上涨；海外方面，各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【上金所：调整部分合约保证金水平和涨跌停板】4 月 23 日，上海黄金交易所发布《关于调 整部分合约保证金水平和涨跌停板的通知》，对黄金延期品种与白银延期合约交易保证金水平 和涨跌停板比例进行调整。自 2025 年 4 月 25 日（星期五）收盘清算时起，Au（T+D）、mAu （T+D）、Au（T+N1）、Au（T+N2）、NYAuTN06、NYAuTN12 等合约的保证金水平从 12%调整为 13%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制从 11%调整为 12%；Ag（T+D）合约的保证金水平从 15%调整 为 16%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制从 14%调整为 15%。 【全国首单集体经济类 REITs 项目获批，规模 4.5 亿元】日前，以娄葑街道集体经济载体为 底层资产的"华金-元联-娄葑街道联创产业园资产支持专项计划"正 ...

4 月 LPR 报价维持不变；资金面边际收敛，债市有所调整 【内容摘要】4 月 21 日，资金面边际收敛，主要回购利率均上行；债市有所调整；转债市场 主要指数跟随收涨，转债个券多数上涨；海外方面，各期限美债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【4 月 LPR 报价出炉：5 年期和 1 年期利率均维持不变】4 月 21 日，央行授权全国银行间同业 拆借中心公布，1 年期 LPR 为 3.1%，5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.6%，连续 6 个月维持不变。业内人士 表示，虽然近来多家银行密集下调存款利率，为 LPR 下行创造了一定空间，但鉴于当前 LPR 的 定价"锚"仍维持稳定，且息差及汇率等内外部影响因素仍存，LPR 持稳也符合预期。往后看， 二季度政策降息有望落地，届时将带动 LPR 下行。 【交易商协会发布《银行间债券市场债券估值业务自律指引（试行）》】4 月 21 日，交易商 协会发布《银行间债券市场债券估值业务自律指引（试行）》。其中提到，现券做市商应增强 独立定价能力，在定价过程中减少对第三方估值的依赖，根据业务实际需要和市场状况开展报 价。鼓励估值产品用户选择多个估值产品，对估值结果开展 ...

Group 1: LPR Pricing Analysis - The April LPR remained unchanged at 3.10% for the 1-year term and 3.60% for the 5-year term, consistent with market expectations[4] - The stability in LPR pricing is attributed to unchanged policy rates and historically low bank net interest margins, reducing the incentive for banks to lower LPR[7] - The LPR has not changed since the beginning of the year, reflecting a strong economic performance in Q1, despite a shift in monetary policy towards moderate easing[7] Group 2: Future Expectations - A policy interest rate cut is anticipated in Q2, potentially leading to a 30 basis point reduction in LPR, similar to the total cut from the previous year[7] - This expected reduction in LPR is aimed at lowering financing costs for businesses and households, thereby stimulating consumption and investment to enhance domestic demand[7] - Future LPR adjustments may pressure banks' net interest margins, which will be mitigated by guiding deposit rates downwards and reducing funding costs[8]

财政部通知超长期特别国债、中央金融机构注资特别国债即将发行；债市走弱， 银行间市场主要期限利率债收益率多数上行 【内容摘要】4 月 17 日，央行公开市场大额净投放，资金面整体宽松，主要回购利率下行； 但债市全线走弱，银行间市场主要期限利率债收益率多数上行；"H21 合景 1" 调整本息兑付 安排议案获通过，4 月 18 日开市起复牌；重庆金科地产的重整申请已被受理，但重庆金科普 通债权重整草案暂未通过；转债市场主要指数及多数个券收涨；海外方面，主要期限美债收益 率全线上行；欧央行降息 25 个基点，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【今年超长期特别国债、中央金融机构注资特别国债即将发行】财政部 4 月 17 日对外发布多 则通知称，2025 年超长期特别国债、2025 年中央金融机构注资特别国债将于下周开始发行。 根据通知，财政部拟于 4 月 24 日发行 2025 年中央金融机构注资特别国债（一期）。本次发行 国债竞争性招标面值总额 1650 亿元，为 5 年期固定利率附息债。同日，财政部还拟发行 2025 年超长期特别国债（一期）（20 年期），竞争性招标面值 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 内需全面发力，一季度宏观经济实现"开门红" ——2025 年 3 月宏观数据点评 首席宏观分析师 王青 研究发展部执行总监 冯琳 事件：据国家统计局 2025 年 4 月 16 日公布的数据，2025 年一季度 GDP 同比增长 5.4%，增速与去年 四季度持平，较 2024 年全年增速加快 0.4 百分点，超出市场普遍预期；2025 年 3 月规模以上工业增加值 同比实际增长 7.7%，前值为 5.9%；一季度规模以上工业增加值累计同比实际增长 6.5%，2024 年全年累 计同比为 5.8%；3 月社会消费品零售总额同比增长 5.9%，前值为 4.0%；一季度社会消费品零售总额累计 同比增长 4.6%，2024 年全年累计同比为 3.5%；2025 年 1-3 月全国固定资产投资累计同比增长 4.2%，前 值为 4.1%，2024 年全年累计同比增长 3.2%。 基本观点： 整体上看，受一揽子增量政策持续推进、外需保持较强韧性等带动，一季度宏观经济保持较强增长 动能，GDP 同比增速达到 5.4%，超出市场普遍预期。背后主要是一季度内需全面发力，成为推动经济实 现"开门红"的主要动力，同 ...