Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view on crude oil 2601 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is bullish, with an overall reference view of bullish operation [1] - Due to the expected cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium has weakened, but the demand for crude oil is expected to improve with the arrival of the winter consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere, and the domestic crude oil futures may continue to operate in a bullish pattern on Thursday [5] Group 3: Summary by Category Time - cycle Views - For crude oil 2601, short - term (within a week) is oscillatory, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is oscillatory, and intraday is bullish [1] Price Movement Calculation Rules - For varieties with night trading, calculate the price change from the night - trading closing price to the day - trading closing price; for those without night trading, calculate from the previous day's closing price to the day - trading closing price [2] Strength Classification Rules - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered bearish, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered bullish, and a rise greater than 1% is considered strong [3] Scope of Strength Classification - The bullish/bearish classification only applies to intraday views, not short - term and medium - term views [4] Price Movement Logic - The expected cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict weakens the geopolitical premium and the rebound power of international oil prices. The arrival of the winter consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere improves the demand expectation, and the domestic crude oil futures showed an oscillatory and stable trend on Wednesday night, with a slight increase in price, and may continue to be bullish on Thursday [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of shock consolidation due to a decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1] - For the main varieties of financial futures index stocks (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. In the short term, treasury bond futures are mainly in shock consolidation [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2603, short - term is shock, medium - term is shock, intraday is weak, with a view of shock consolidation. The core logic is the decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated yesterday. At the beginning of the month, liquidity is relatively loose, but the market lacks a main line, so the shock trend continues. There are still expectations for future macro - policies, and the combination of monetary and fiscal policies is expected to push down policy interest rates, but the central bank avoids rapid interest rate decline, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is limited. In the short term, concerns about the dense supply of long - term bonds in the first quarter of next year, year - end institutional profit - taking pressure, and decreased trading activity of treasury bonds lead to a high possibility of shock consolidation [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view for the stock index futures is that they will be in a range - bound oscillation. The policy利好预期 continues to ferment, but the willingness of funds to take profits is rising. In the short term, the market is waiting for policy guidance from the Central Economic Work Conference and lacks a clear main line. However, in the long run, the positive policy expectations and the trend of long - term funds entering the market remain unchanged, providing strong support for the stock index [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is bullish, and the overall view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is the conflict between the fermentation of policy利好预期 and the rising willingness of funds to take profits [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is bullish, and the medium - term view is oscillation, with a reference view of range - bound oscillation. The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated and slightly回调 yesterday. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 168.36 billion yuan, an increase of 7.63 billion yuan from the previous day. Currently, the trading atmosphere in the stock market has cooled down, the margin trading amount and margin balance have declined, and the willingness of funds to take profits has risen. The stock index is in a stage of oscillation and consolidation. The policy side has strong expectations for stabilizing macro - demand and supporting technological innovation, which provides strong support for the stock index. However, in the short term, the market is waiting for policy guidance from the Central Economic Work Conference and lacks a main line. In general, the stock index will mainly oscillate in the short term [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core View - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and the steel price is expected to continue the volatile trend. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on rebar 2605 are all volatile, with the intraday view being weakly volatile [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content - **Variety View Reference** - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all volatile, with the intraday view being weakly volatile. The core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern and the continuation of the steel price's volatile trend [2] - **Market Driving Logic** - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Rebar production has declined, but the profit of short - process steel mills has improved, so the supply contraction is hard to sustain. Demand has weakened, high - frequency indicators remain at a low level, and downstream industries have not improved. The demand is expected to decline seasonally, putting pressure on the steel price. Although market sentiment has warmed up and the steel price has stabilized recently, there is no substantial improvement in the rebar's fundamentals under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the upward driving force for the steel price is not strong [3]

备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-04 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区逐渐临近停割季，未来国产全乳胶供应预期逐渐下降 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic coal price started to stabilize and decline in late November after the replenishment demand of terminal enterprises was fulfilled. The year - end production of thermal coal is expected to maintain a negative growth pattern, while the demand will seasonally strengthen in December. Overall, the supply - demand of thermal coal will be balanced in December, and the price of 5500K coal is expected to oscillate strongly above 800 yuan, supported by the replenishment demand of downstream terminals in the peak season [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Market Analysis of Thermal Coal - **Supply**: The production bases in November and December 2024 were relatively high. The weekly production data of thermal coal from the first two weeks of November did not improve significantly compared to October, and the year - end production is expected to maintain negative growth [5] - **Demand**: As December approaches, the southern regions of China will enter the peak winter heating season, which will drive up the coal consumption of coastal power plants and support the coal price [5] - **Price Forecast**: In December, the supply - demand of thermal coal is expected to be balanced, with a year - on - year decline in production, stable imports, and seasonally strengthening demand. The price of 5500K coal is expected to oscillate strongly above 800 yuan [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 4 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 核心逻辑：近期豆类市场呈现近弱远强的分化走势，资金继续向远期 2605 合约移仓。美豆期价受中 国采购预期支撑高位运行，但巴西大豆创纪录的丰产预期及美豆较巴西大豆的升水限制了上行空间。 国内豆粕高库存与油厂高压榨量对价格形成压制，而下游生猪养殖存栏高位支撑饲料需求，使得市场 在"弱现实"与"强预期"间反复博弈。短期豆粕 2605 合约仍将维持区间内震荡偏弱运行，需关注 南美天气变化及中国采购美豆的实际进展。 时间周期说 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 12 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局偏弱，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗持续下行，且盈利状况不佳，需求延续弱势 局面。与此同时，国内港口到货虽有所回落，但海外矿商发运环比增加，且两者仍处年内高位，海外 矿石供应表现积极，而内矿供应相对平稳，铁矿石供应维持高位。总之，短期利多发酵支撑矿价重回 高位，但铁矿石需求弱势运行，而供应维持高位，矿市基本面表现偏弱，高估值矿价继续承压，上行 驱动不强，多空因素博弈下矿价延续高位震荡运行态势，关注钢材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Rubber - On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The intraday price center slightly moved down to around 15,210 yuan/ton, closing down 0.46% to 15,210 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 20 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices remain volatile within a range [6]. Methanol - On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price reached a maximum of 2,140 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,115 yuan/ton, closing down 0.79% to 2,128 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread converged to 86 yuan/ton. As the supply - demand outlook for methanol shows an improving trend, methanol futures prices are expected to see a valuation repair in the future [7]. Crude Oil - On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price rose to a maximum of 452.8 yuan/barrel and fell to a minimum of 444.6 yuan/barrel, closing down 1.15% to 448.1 yuan/barrel. The oversupply situation is pitted against the seasonal recovery in demand. Coupled with the weakening of macro - sentiment and the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium of crude oil is weakening [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 481,600 tons, an increase of 12,700 tons or 2.71% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 72,400 tons with a growth rate of 0.69%, and the general trade inventory was 409,200 tons with a growth rate of 3.07%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 6.55 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.43 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.23 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.66 percentage points [10]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points week - on - week and 10.40 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points week - on - week but an increase of 1.56 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased this week due to maintenance in some semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises, mainly because of insufficient orders, slow shipments, and equipment upgrades in some sample enterprises. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will recover next week, but the overall demand growth is limited, and production control by enterprises will restrict the increase in capacity utilization [11]. - In November 2025, China's auto dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year - on - year and 3.0 percentage points month - on - month. The inventory warning index is above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the auto circulation industry [11]. - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a decrease of about 6% from October this year but a significant increase of about 46% from 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy - truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth from April to November, with an average growth rate of up to 42%. Cumulatively, from January to November this year, the total sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [12]. Methanol - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 83.77%, a slight decrease of 0.17% week - on - week, a small increase of 1.06% month - on - month, and a small increase of 4.08% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0142 million tons, a small increase of 38,100 tons week - on - week, a small increase of 70,700 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 134,000 tons compared with 1.8802 million tons in the same period last year [13]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.28%, a slight increase of 0.05% week - on - week. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 5.31%, a slight decrease of 0.96% week - on - week. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 66.53%, a small increase of 2.89% week - on - week. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.91%, a small increase of 0.01% week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.67%, a slight increase of 0.85 percentage points week - on - week but a small decrease of 3.78% month - on - month. As of November 21, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was 316 yuan/ton, a slight recovery of 7 yuan/ton week - on - week and a significant rebound of 537 yuan/ton month - on - month [13]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the methanol inventory at ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.2439 million tons, a small decrease of 35,100 tons week - on - week, a small decrease of 25,900 tons month - on - month, but a significant increase of 184,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of November 27, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 373,700 tons, a small increase of 15,000 tons week - on - week, a small increase of 13,300 tons month - on - month, and a slight increase of 4,500 tons compared with 369,200 tons in the same period last year [14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 419, a small increase of 2 rigs week - on - week but a decrease of 60 rigs compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.814 million barrels, a small decrease of 20,000 barrels per day week - on - week but a significant increase of 321,000 barrels per day year - on - year, remaining at a historical high [14]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426.9 million barrels, a significant increase of 2.774 million barrels week - on - week but a significant decrease of 1.519 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 21.753 million barrels, a small decrease of 68,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 411 million barrels, a small increase of 498,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 92.3%, a small increase of 2.3 percentage points week - on - week, a small recovery of 5.7 percentage points month - on - month, and a small increase of 1.8 percentage points year - on - year [15]. - As of October 14, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 60,991 contracts, a significant decrease of 13,318 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 36,857 contracts or 37.67% compared with the average in September. As of November 25, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 125,587 contracts, a significant decrease of 52,240 contracts week - on - week but a significant increase of 6,176 contracts or 5.17% compared with the average in October [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,210 yuan/ton | -150 yuan/ton | -360 yuan/ton | +150 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,135 yuan/ton | -5 yuan/ton | 2,128 yuan/ton | -4 yuan/ton | +7 yuan/ton | -1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 417.1 yuan/barrel | -0.2 yuan/barrel | 448.1 yuan/barrel | -5.7 yuan/barrel | -31.0 yuan/barrel | +5.5 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to rubber (including rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend), methanol (including methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting), and crude oil (including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change) [17][30][43].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report, taking CSI 1000 index options as an example, analyzes the suitability of option spread strategies in a market scenario where the market is expected to rise in the medium to long - term and fluctuate within a range in the short - term. It introduces various option spread strategies, including vertical spread, ratio spread, horizontal spread, diagonal spread, and butterfly spread, and studies their application scenarios through historical data backtesting [3][52]. Summary by Directory 1. Option Portfolio Strategy Construction Ideas - **Non - linear Profit and Loss Structure of Options**: Options have a non - linear profit and loss structure, which provides diverse strategy choices for investors. When constructing option portfolio strategies, multi - dimensional factors such as option position PCR, implied volatility, and the direction of the underlying index should be comprehensively considered [8]. - **Option Position PCR**: As of November 28, the position PCR of CSI 1000 index options was 97.48%, at the 84.9% quantile level since 2023. The decline in position PCR since mid - November indicates a weakening of market sentiment, and the market sentiment remains unclear as the position PCR has not risen above 100% [9]. - **Implied Volatility**: As of November 28, the at - the - money implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options was 17.32%, at the 33.7% quantile level since 2023. Since the implied volatility is at a low level, there is limited room for further decline. When constructing option portfolio strategies, investors should consider holding a positive vega risk exposure [11]. - **Index Fundamental Analysis**: Policy stability of macro - demand, policy support for technological innovation, and continuous inflow of funds into the stock market form the core logic for the medium - to - long - term upward movement of the index. However, due to the risk of the AI asset investment bubble overseas and the increase in the willingness of funds to take short - term profits, the index may fluctuate within a range in the short - term [15]. 2. Introduction to Option Spread Strategies - **Vertical Spread**: It can be divided into bull spread and bear spread. Bull spread is suitable for a moderately bullish market, and bear spread is suitable for a moderately bearish market. This strategy can reduce the cost of premiums and control potential large losses [26][27]. - **Ratio Spread**: It is an asymmetric spread strategy, including bullish ratio spread and bearish ratio spread. It is suitable for investors with specific expectations for market direction or volatility, with the core logic of using option premium income and time - value decay characteristics to pursue profits while controlling risks [30]. - **Horizontal Spread**: Also known as calendar spread, it takes advantage of the asymmetry of time - value decay. It is suitable for a market environment of "price consolidation + rising volatility" and is a time - arbitrage tool in a neutral market [35]. - **Diagonal Spread**: It combines the characteristics of vertical spread and horizontal spread, aiming to profit from the difference in time - value decay and price fluctuations. It can be constructed using call or put options and is suitable for investors with a clear directional judgment on the market but who also want to control risks [37]. - **Butterfly Spread**: A three - leg combination suitable for a range - bound market. It allows investors to lock in a price range and profit when the price of the underlying asset fluctuates within a narrow range, with strictly limited risks [39]. 3. Empirical Comparison of Option Spread Strategies - For the CSI 1000 index in the range of 7000 - 7600, different spread strategies can be selected to control the risk exposure of "bottom - fishing". Through backtesting, the overall performance ranking of strategies is ratio spread > butterfly spread > bull put spread > bull call spread > horizontal spread > diagonal spread, with the diagonal spread being the only losing strategy [45][47]. - The returns of vertical spread strategies are mainly affected by delta, while those of horizontal spread strategies are mainly affected by vega and theta. During the index's rebound, vertical spread strategies perform well, while during the index's decline, horizontal spread strategies may stop losses and repair, and the butterfly spread strategy maintains a relatively stable growth [50][51]. 4. Summary The report concludes that option spread strategies are suitable for a market scenario where the market is expected to rise in the medium to long - term and fluctuate within a range in the short - term. Different strategies have different profit and loss characteristics and application scenarios. For different Delta, theta, and vega scenarios, the optimal spread strategies also vary [52].