期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-11-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 供应预期修复，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 核心逻辑：近期国内甲醇期货供需预期改善，驱动甲醇期价反弹主要有四方面原因：其一，伊朗限 气政策落地。11 月下旬伊朗进入冬季采暖季，天然气供应受限导致甲醇装置减产，12 月进口量预计 环比减少 50%，1 月或进一步降至 90 万吨附近，供应缺口预期升温。其二，地缘制裁持续干扰。美 国对伊朗化工物流制裁未放松，部分航运中断加剧进口不确定性，支撑市场乐观情绪。其三，我国 北方采暖季刚需释放。"煤改醇"民用采暖需求稳定增长 ，11 月甲醇燃料消耗量预估达 140-160 万 吨，12 月或攀升至 150-170 万吨。其四，现货竞拍氛围改善。近期山西、内蒙古等地甲醇 竞拍价格 普遍上涨， ...

| 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 降息预期升温，俄乌趋于缓和 | | 铜 | 2601 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 11 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：观望 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 核心逻辑：近期黄金市场处于多空因素交织的复杂局面，价格在高位呈现震荡态势。一方面，市场对 美联储降息的预期显著升温，为金价提供了核心支撑；另一方面，俄乌和平谈判取得进展的消息，则 削弱了黄金的避险吸引力。俄乌局势的发展是影响黄 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean and oil market is in a state of consolidation, showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic performance. The short - term market will continue to play around Sino - US trade progress and inventory changes, with soybean and oil futures prices showing a weak and volatile trend [5]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "weak and volatile". The reference view is also "weak and volatile" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The soybean market is in a consolidation phase with an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. US soybean futures prices are oscillating around 1100 cents, and the market is focusing on the details of a possible 12 million - ton soybean purchase agreement between China and the US. The domestic spot market has significant pressure, with soybean meal inventory rising to 1.145 million tons and contract volume dropping by 10.31%, indicating weak demand. Caught between high costs and weak reality, oil mills are accumulating inventory, and feed enterprises mainly make purchases based on rigid demand [5]. 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "strong and volatile". The reference view is also "strong and volatile" [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The palm oil market is showing a significant differentiation pattern. The Malaysian palm oil market has declined for four consecutive days, mainly due to a 16.4% year - on - year decline in Malaysia's exports from November 1 - 25, which has intensified market concerns about the weakening supply - demand situation. Domestic palm oil inventory has increased by 35,100 tons to 591,600 tons, with continuous supply pressure. Recently, the trend of palm oil is closely linked to the international oil and fat sector. After a continuous decline, the palm oil market may fluctuate strongly due to the rebound of US soybean oil futures prices [7]. 3.3. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term and medium - term views are "volatile", and the intraday view is "strong and volatile". The reference view is "strong and volatile" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Supported by the cost of US soybeans, US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly range - bound, with a weak intraday view and a mid - term view of oscillation. The long - term view of the stock index is not pessimistic [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the mid - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is weak, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is that the willingness of funds to settle increases in the short term [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is weak, the mid - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is that the stock indexes rebounded oscillatively yesterday. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1826.2 billion yuan, an increase of 85.8 billion yuan from the previous day. Due to the weakening of incremental policy signals, investors' willingness to settle increased, and the trading volume and balance of margin trading declined, indicating a decline in market sentiment. There is a need for short - term technical consolidation. However, there are still expectations of policy benefits from the Central Economic Work Conference in December, and the two aspects of policy benefit expectations and the trend of continuous capital inflow have not changed, so the long - term view is not pessimistic. After a significant short - term correction, there is strong support below [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of rebar 2601 is weak and volatile, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends showing a weak and volatile pattern, due to the weak and stable supply - demand pattern and low - level fluctuations of steel prices [1]. - The steel price is expected to continue the low - level volatile operation, as the fundamentals have no substantial improvement with increasing supply and seasonally weakening demand, despite short - term positive factors [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all weak and volatile, and the core logic is the weak and stable supply - demand pattern and low - level fluctuations of steel prices [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Both supply and demand of rebar have increased. Rebar production has rebounded from a low level, and inventory is relatively high, so the supply pressure remains. Meanwhile, rebar demand has improved, but its sustainability is questionable, and the main downstream industries are still weak, with demand likely to weaken seasonally [2]. - Short - term positive factors such as position transfer and low warehouse receipts support the low - level rebound of steel prices. However, due to the seasonal weakening of demand and increasing supply, the fundamentals have no substantial improvement, and the steel price is under pressure with limited upward driving force [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market remains in a state of high - level oscillation, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of "oscillation" or "oscillation on the weak side". The fundamental situation has not improved, and the upward driving force is weak [1]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved. Steel mill production has stabilized, terminal ore consumption has weakened, and subsequent demand will continue to be weak. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals have rebounded significantly, overseas miners' shipments are still at a high level this year, and domestic ore supply is stable, resulting in high - level supply. Although the ore price has shown a relatively strong trend due to the switching of arbitrage logic and the limited liquidity of some spot varieties, the fundamentals have not improved [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", with an overall view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved and the upward driving force is weak [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved. Steel mill production is stable, terminal ore consumption is weakening, and subsequent demand will continue to be weak. Domestic port arrivals have rebounded significantly, overseas miners' shipments, though slightly decreased, are still at a high level this year, and domestic ore supply is stable. The ore price has shown a relatively strong trend due to the switching of arbitrage logic and the limited liquidity of some spot varieties, but the fundamentals have not improved, and the subsequent trend will continue to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 铁矿石 上行驱动力不强 （2025 年 11 月 26 日） 11 月以来，铁矿石期现价格呈先跌后涨走势。主力合约由月初的 800 元/吨快速下探至 756 元/ 吨，随后触底回升并接近月初水平；现货价格走势同步，普氏铁矿石价格指数报 106.05 美元/吨，录 得 1.29%的月度跌幅，其间最低触及 102.05 美元/吨。 供应压力偏大 11 月中旬以来，铁矿石价格走势强于其他黑色系品种，相关比值同步创下阶段新高。截至目 前，铁矿石 2601 合约与螺纹钢、焦煤 2601 合约比值分别为 0.2559 和 0.7209，较前期低点已回升 2.07%和 20.39%。当前支撑矿价偏强运行的核心逻辑有两个：一是黑色品种套利逻辑切换，前期多煤 焦空铁矿石的套利组合占据主导，而随着焦煤市场看空情绪发酵，煤焦与铁矿石走势呈现明显分 化；二是结构性矛盾凸显，部分主流品种受交易限制影响，港口库存中可自由流通的现货资源趋于 紧张，即便港口库存大幅累积，也未能转化为有效供给。 上述利多因素暂未消退，短期仍将对矿价形成支撑，但供需面偏弱，将限制铁矿石上行空间。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The reference view for thermal coal spot is to oscillate. The coal price of 5500K is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating operation. The supply improvement of thermal coal is limited, while the demand may seasonally strengthen from mid - December. Terminal user procurement demand will continuously support the coal price [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Conditions - In mid - November, affected by the cold wave, the domestic temperature dropped sharply, with a cumulative cooling amplitude of up to 20°C in some coastal areas. The daily consumption of thermal coal in December will gradually strengthen. As of November 20, the total inventory of thermal coal at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 25.883 million tons, with a monthly cumulative inventory of 1.775 million tons and 2.916 million tons lower than the same period last year [4] Market Driving Factors - Previously, the replenishment demand of coastal terminals and low port inventory were important drivers for the strengthening of coal prices. As the ports start to accumulate inventory, downstream resistance to high - priced coal sources increases, market games intensify, and port coal prices stabilize [4]

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短线降息预期下降，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 11 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理。近期央行公开市场操作灵活，保持流动性合理充裕。由于年内 政策面加码的必要性不强，预计年内保持 7 日逆回购利率 1.4 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to show a weakening trend in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a core view of weak operation due to the decline in geopolitical premium and the weakening of the crude oil market [1][5]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Price and Market Trends - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is volatile, the mid - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of weak operation [1]. - On Tuesday night, domestic crude oil futures maintained a volatile and weakening trend, with prices slightly falling, and are expected to remain weak on Wednesday [5]. Driving Logic - The macro - sentiment weakened because the US September non - farm payrolls data announced last weekend was significantly worse than expected [5]. - The latest quarterly report of OPEC changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of a loose supply [5]. - The weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is increasingly competing with geopolitical sentiment. Market concerns about a possible cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict have led to a retracement of the geopolitical premium in the oil market [5].