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宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250813
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:28
Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks for rebar 2510 are "sideways", "sideways", and "sideways with a downward bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level at the MA20 line. The core logic is that strong raw materials drive the steel price to fluctuate higher [2]. - The rebar market fundamentals continue to show seasonal weakness. Although both supply and demand have increased, the fundamentals are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a sideways trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are defined, and the view reference is to focus on the MA20 line support. The core logic is the strong raw materials driving up the steel price. Also, the calculation rules for price changes are provided [2]. Market Driving Logic - The rebar fundamentals have seasonal weakness. Supply has increased significantly as construction steel mills are actively resuming production. Demand has also improved, mainly due to the release of speculative demand, but the improvement's sustainability is questionable. Supply disturbances support the strong rise of raw materials, raising costs and driving up the steel price. However, the weak fundamentals and the co - increase of supply and demand put pressure on the steel price, resulting in a sideways trend [3].
宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250813
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view of Gold 2510 is bearish, with a mid - term view of consolidation and an intraday view of weak consolidation, indicating a short - term bearish outlook due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations [1]. - The short - term view of Copper 2509 is bullish, with a mid - term view of consolidation and an intraday view of strong consolidation, suggesting a short - term bullish outlook as the domestic sentiment warms up and copper prices stabilize and rebound [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, gold prices fluctuated. New York gold oscillated around $3400, London gold around $3350, and Shanghai gold around 777 yuan. This week, gold prices have been weak [3]. - **Core Logic**: The easing of Sino - US trade relations, as shown by the joint statement of the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Stockholm on August 12, 2025, has led to a rise in market risk appetite and a decline in gold prices. Meanwhile, the under - expected US economy, lower - than - expected July CPI, and slightly higher - than - expected core CPI have increased the expectation of Fed rate cuts, with the market expecting three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points this year, which supports the gold price. Technically, gold is at the upper edge of the consolidation range since the second quarter, facing strong technical pressure [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, copper prices slightly oscillated upwards, with an increase in open interest. The main contract price broke through the 79,000 - yuan mark, and in the night session, it opened higher and moved higher, breaking through 79,400 yuan [4]. - **Core Logic**: The joint statement of the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Stockholm on August 12, 2025, has created a good macro environment at home and abroad, which is conducive to the rise of copper prices. During the industrial off - season, inventory has slightly increased, and the spread between September and October contracts has continued to weaken. With macro positives and industry being neutral to bearish, copper prices are expected to be strong driven by the macro environment, and the futures market may continue the pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, and weak near - term and strong long - term contracts [4].
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250813
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products. The demand for iron ore has resilience, and the supply is weaker than expected, resulting in a stable fundamentals under the situation of weak supply and demand [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is volatile and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also volatile and slightly stronger. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the demand has good resilience and the ore price runs strongly [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The market sentiment is warm, and the ore price continues to be strong. The fundamentals of iron ore are stable. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. However, due to the good profitability of steel mills, the high - frequency indicators remain at a relatively high level, and the demand has resilience, which supports the ore price. At the same time, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined again, the overseas miners' shipments have slightly decreased, and domestic ore production is weakening, so the ore supply is weak. The demand for iron ore is weakening, and the supply recovery is also lower than expected. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of ore run stably, and the good profitability of steel mills and the resilient demand continue to support the ore price [3].
宝城期货资讯早班车-20250813
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economy is on a stable growth track, with the OPEC raising its 2025 US economic growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.8% and maintaining the 2026 forecast at 2.1% [4]. - The bond market is under pressure, with stock and commodity markets remaining strong. The long - end of the bond market has seen the largest adjustment, but the bank - to - bank money market remains stable and loose [25]. - The A - share market continues its slow - bull pattern, with the three major indices hitting new highs for the year. The semiconductor industry chain has boomed, while some anti - involution sectors have declined [35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In June 2025, GDP at constant prices grew 5.2% year - on - year, down from 5.4% in the previous quarter but up from 4.7% in the same period last year [1]. - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and 49.4% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month but up from 50.2% in the same period last year [1]. - In June 2025, social financing scale increment was 41993 billion yuan, compared with 22899 billion yuan in the previous month and 32985 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Two loan discount policies were released on the 12th to stimulate consumption and boost the economy [2]. - China and the US agreed to continue suspending the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days starting from August 12 [2]. - The US is likely to see interest rate cuts in September and October, according to CME "FedWatch" data [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - As of August 12, the gold holdings of SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - The lithium industry branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative to resist "involution - style" competition [5]. - London's basic metals mostly rose, and the market may remain volatile in the short term [5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - A coking enterprise in Shandong plans to cut production by 30% from August 16 - 25 and 50% from August 26 - September 3, with an estimated impact on coke output of about 41,000 tons [6]. - Indonesia's annual demand for nickel ore is expected to reach 800 million tons due to the development of the nickel processing industry [6]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On August 12, US crude oil futures fell due to an unexpected increase in US API crude oil inventories and OPEC +'s production increase [8]. - The US Energy Information Administration adjusted its forecasts for Brent crude oil prices, global oil demand, and US oil production and demand for 2025 and 2026 [8][9]. - OPEC raised its 2026 global crude oil demand growth forecast from 128,000 barrels per day to 138,000 barrels per day [11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Malaysia's palm oil exports and production increased in July 2025 [12]. - The prices of white - feather chickens and chicken chicks have fluctuated significantly recently, and farmers are increasing their stocking due to price increases and expected demand growth [12]. - The US Department of Agriculture released data on crop subsidy registration areas and soybean production and inventory expectations for 2025/2026 [13][14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On August 12, the central bank conducted 114.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 46.1 billion yuan [15]. 3.3.2 Key News - China and the US agreed to adjust tariff policies and suspend relevant measures for 90 days [16]. - Two loan discount policies were issued to support personal consumption and service - industry business entities [16]. - The issuance scale of science - and - technology innovation bonds has exceeded 800 billion yuan in just over three months [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market continued to adjust, with most bond yields rising, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield breaking through 2% [25]. - Some exchange - traded bonds rose or fell significantly, and the convertible bond index closed down [25][26]. - European and US bond yields showed different trends, with European bond yields rising overall and US bond yields showing mixed performance [28]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 93 basis points at 7.1911 on August 12 [29]. - The US dollar index fell 0.44% in New York trading, and most non - US currencies rose [29]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities expects the annual bond fund scale to exceed 11 trillion yuan [31]. - CICC Fixed Income believes that the risk of a continuous widening of credit spreads in August is relatively small [31]. - Guosen Macroeconomic Fixed Income believes that the bond market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term [31]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminder - On August 13, 196 bonds will be listed, 103 bonds will be issued, 105 bonds will make payments, and 97 bonds will pay principal and interest [33][34]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The A - share market continued its slow - bull trend, with the semiconductor industry chain booming and some sectors declining [35]. - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling [35]. - A - share margin financing balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan for the first time in ten years, and many industries received more margin funds [35].
宝城期货动力煤早报-20250813
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:21
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the price of thermal coal will continue to strengthen this summer as multiple positive factors, including the peak season and anti - involution policies, create a resonance driving the coal price up [5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - As of August 7, 2025, the quoted price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 674 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/ton, and the increase was larger than the previous week. Since the low point in late June, the cumulative increase in the FOB price of 5500K at the port has reached 64 yuan/ton, a rise of 10.5% [5]. Supply and Demand - This week, the domestic thermal coal supply has been stable. The peak season for thermal coal demand has shown good performance. The capacity utilization rate of non - power cement clinker is significantly higher than the same period last year. The anti - involution rectification work in the coal industry has boosted market sentiment. The coal market atmosphere at mine mouths and ports remains active, with continuous release of downstream power plant replenishment demand and high enthusiasm among traders for haulage [5]. Inventory - As of August 7, according to iFind statistics, the total inventory of thermal coal at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2481.9 million tons, basically flat week - on - week and slightly 22.4 million tons lower than the same period last year. Since this summer, the coal inventory at northern ports has decreased by 834.4 million tons from the inventory peak in May, effectively reducing the inventory in the intermediate links and supporting the coal price to stop falling and rebound [5].
宝城期货原油早报-20250813
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:14
Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil 2510, it is expected to run weakly in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a core logic of being suppressed by bearish factors and showing a weak and volatile trend [1]. - In the intraday view, crude oil (SC) is expected to be volatile and strong, and in the mid - term, it is expected to be volatile, with a reference view of running strongly. Overall, it is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Content 3.1 Crude Oil 2510 - **Short - term**: The short - term view is volatile, the mid - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile. The reference view is running weakly, and the core logic is that bearish factors suppress the price, leading to a weak and volatile trend [1]. 3.2 Crude Oil (SC) - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the mid - term view is volatile, with a reference view of running strongly [5]. - **Core Logic**: There are both bullish and bearish factors at the macro level. Trump's tariff war and the potential Fed rate cut coexist. OPEC+ is increasing production, and the supply pressure is rising. The demand is in the peak season, but there is a risk of a decline due to seasonal factors. After the digestion of bullish factors, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract showed a weakly volatile trend on Tuesday night, with the price slightly down 0.37% to 490.8 yuan/barrel, and it is expected to be volatile and stable on Wednesday [5].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250813
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:10
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - The short - term outlook for both soybean meal and palm oil futures prices is expected to be on the stronger side, while the medium - term outlook for both is oscillatory [5][6][8]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog For Soybean Meal (M): - **Price Movement and Views**: The intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory and on the stronger side. The short - term view of the 2601 contract is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The industrial chain environment remains unchanged, and market trading is mainly based on expected changes. The determination of dumping of Canadian - origin rapeseed by China has led to tense trade relations between China and Canada, and changes in Sino - US trade relations continue to affect market sentiment [5]. For Palm Oil (P): - **Price Movement and Views**: The intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory and on the stronger side. The short - term view of the 2601 contract is on the stronger side, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side [6][7][8]. - **Core Logic**: The rotation market in the oil and fat sector continues. Palm oil is continuously affected by bio - energy policies, showing an obvious upward trend. The change in Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade relations has reignited the sentiment in the rapeseed oil market, leading to a catch - up rise and a platform breakthrough. The linkage support among oil and fat varieties is expected to strengthen [8]. For Soybean Oil (2601): - **Price Movement and Views**: The short - term view is on the stronger side, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side, and the reference view is oscillatory and on the stronger side [7]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [7].
宝城期货国债期货早报-20250813
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:04
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is slightly bullish, and the overall view is volatile. The core logic is that there is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the main bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, and the overall reference view is volatile. The core logic is that bond futures oscillated and corrected yesterday. The Politburo meeting in July reiterated the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, which increased the expectation of future easing. Since August, bond futures have rebounded after hitting the bottom. Due to the strong resilience of macro - economic data in the first half of the year, the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged overseas, and the rising risk appetite in the domestic stock market, the necessity and possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term are low. However, as the market interest rate approached the policy rate at the end of July, the anchoring effect of the policy rate emerged, limiting the further rise of the market interest rate. In general, bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Catalog: Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, short - term: volatile; medium - term: volatile; intraday: slightly bullish; overall view: volatile. Core logic: There is an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the short - term possibility of an interest rate cut is low [1]. Catalog: Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, intraday view: slightly bullish; medium - term view: volatile; reference view: volatile. Core logic: Bond futures oscillated and corrected yesterday. The July Politburo meeting increased the expectation of future easing, and bond futures rebounded after hitting the bottom in August. The short - term possibility of an interest rate cut is low, and the rise of the market interest rate is limited. Bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [5].
宝城期货铜价,延续内强外弱格局
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price is expected to continue the pattern of being stronger in the domestic market and weaker in the international market, as well as being weaker in the near - term and stronger in the far - term. Currently, the macro - environment is favorable for copper prices, while the industrial side shows a neutral - to - bearish trend [2][3][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Impact of US Tariff Policy - On July 30, the US President announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi - products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1. The New York copper price dropped by over 18% on the same day, and the spread between COMEX copper and LME copper quickly narrowed to the pre - tariff - expectation level. Copper ores and cathode copper were exempted from the tariff, which is beyond market expectations. This exemption is bullish for copper prices from a global supply - demand perspective. After the spread convergence, US copper imports may decline in the second half of the year, increasing non - US copper supply and being bearish for LME and SHFE copper [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The current high global market risk appetite and the good performance of domestic and foreign equity markets are bullish for copper prices. The unexpectedly weak US non - farm data and lower - than - expected non - manufacturing PMI at the beginning of the month increased the expectation of a US economic slowdown and Fed rate - cut expectations, causing the US dollar index to fall. The market expects the Fed to cut rates three times this year, with a cumulative cut of 75 basis points [2]. - There is a risk of a macro - environment shift. If the US economy continues to weaken, copper prices will be under pressure; if the US economy stabilizes and the Fed cuts rates, it will be bullish for copper prices [3]. Domestic Market Conditions - In July, the domestic macro - environment was positive. With the "anti - involution" policy, domestic - priced commodities generally rose. The strong trend continued in late July but cooled down at the end of the month, and commodities entered an adjustment phase. The current spot industry is in the off - season, with limited impact on copper prices. Supported by the macro - environment, far - month copper contracts are stronger than near - month contracts. Domestic electrolytic copper inventory de - stocking has slowed down, while overseas copper inventory has been accumulating at a high level, resulting in the pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international copper prices. Domestic upstream smelters maintain high production, and refined copper imports are expected to increase, putting pressure on the domestic industry [3]. Trade Agreement and Its Impact - In August, the new US tariff policy was implemented, and the US reached new trade agreements with major global economies, possibly extending the current tariff policy for 90 days. This reduces global economic uncertainty and is expected to keep the market risk - appetite high, which is bullish for copper prices [3]. - The joint statement of the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks on August 12, 2025, involving a 90 - day tariff extension and non - tariff measure adjustment, indicates an improvement in Sino - US trade relations and is also bullish for copper prices [4].
橡胶甲醇原油:偏多氛围支撑,能化集体走强
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 11:39
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend, driven by better-than-expected domestic automobile production and sales data and year-on-year growth in heavy truck sales [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a stable and volatile trend, supported by the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices, despite the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [4]. - The domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a stable and volatile trend, as China and the United States have suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 10, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 61.99 million tons, a decrease of 1.19 million tons (1.89%) from the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 0.24%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 2.11%. The entry rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the exit rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points. The entry rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the exit rate increased by 0.25 percentage points [8]. - As of August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a slight week - on - week decline of 0.27 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decline of 9.39 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.80 percentage points and a significant year - on - year increase of 7.76 percentage points [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. The growth rates of production and sales were 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points higher than those from January to June [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9]. - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.35%, a slight week - on - week decline of 1.57%, a slight month - on - month decline of 4.85%, and a slight year - on - year increase of 3.09%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8453 million tons, a significant week - on - week decline of 84,900 tons, a significant month - on - month decline of 141,800 tons, and a significant increase of 111,600 tons compared with 1.7337 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 28.66%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.27%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.55%. The acetic acid operating rate was 86.45%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2.34%. The MTBE operating rate was 53.91%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.93% [10]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.70%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.98 percentage points and a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.69 percentage points. As of August 8, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 99 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week decline of 18 yuan/ton and a slight month - on - month decline of 25 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 803,300 tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 153,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 235,700 tons, and a slight year - on - year increase of 26,300 tons. As of the week of August 7, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 293,800 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 30,900 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 63,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 142,100 tons compared with 435,900 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 410, a slight week - on - week decrease of 5 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.284 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 30,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year decrease of 116,000 barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 3.029 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 5.659 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 23.006 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 453,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 403 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 235,000 barrels [12]. - The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 96.9%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.5 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 2.2 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.4 percentage points [12]. - As of August 5, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 141,829 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 14,194 contracts and a significant decrease of 41,341 contracts (a decline of 22.57%) compared with the July average of 183,170 contracts. As of August 5, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 230,414 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 19,559 contracts and a significant increase of 10,338 contracts (an increase of 4.70%) compared with the July average of 220,076 contracts [12]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,750 yuan/ton | +250 yuan/ton | 15,860 yuan/ton | +105 yuan/ton | - 1,110 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,412 yuan/ton | +2 yuan/ton | 2,496 yuan/ton | +11 yuan/ton | - 84 yuan/ton | - 11 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 460.6 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 494.2 yuan/barrel | +4.8 yuan/barrel | - 33.6 yuan/barrel | - 4.7 yuan/barrel | [13] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, inventory, capacity utilization rate, and net position changes [14][27][40]