1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.96%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The steel price was driven up by the resurgence of raw materials, but the fundamentals of rebar did not improve substantially under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. The steel price remained prone to pressure, and the upward driving force needed to be tracked. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price showed a strong trend with a daily increase of 1.40%, trading volume decreased while open interest increased. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils continued to weaken, inventory increased and the growth rate expanded. However, the real - world contradictions were limited, and the strong upward movement of raw materials provided cost support. In the short term, the price will continue to oscillate higher, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price rose strongly with a daily increase of 2.36%, the shift of the main contract was completed, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Although the demand for iron ore was weakening, the supply recovery was lower than expected, the fundamentals were stable, and the good profit situation of steel mills provided support for the ore price. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Automobile Industry**: In July, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% respectively. Among 18 car companies that announced their July production and sales data, more than 60% had a year - on - year increase in sales [6]. - **Real Estate Industry**: The total sales of 18 key real estate enterprises from January to July 2025 were 842.096 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%. In July, the total sales were 95.316 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20% and a month - on - month decrease of 41.4%. The total sales area from January to July was 42.6283 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 24.5%, and in July it was 5.4157 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 25.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 31.5% [7]. - **Iron Ore Industry**: The Sydvaranger iron ore in Norway is accelerating its restart. It is expected to start production in 2026. The total resources of the iron ore are about 514 million tons, with an average iron grade of 33.05% and a magnetite iron grade of 28.58% [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,340, 3,360 and 3,427 respectively, with price changes of 10, 20 and 19 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,510, 3,460 and 3,522 respectively, with price changes of 30, 20 and 22 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,120 with a change of 20, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,140 with no change. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 170 with a change of 20, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,200 with a change of 10 [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 788 with a change of 11, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 783 with a change of 10. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 10.58 and 24.95 respectively, with changes of 0.21 and 0.59 respectively. The SGX swap price (current month) was 102.60 with a change of 0.90, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 102.90 with a change of 1.40 [9]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | High Price | Low Price | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,258 | 0.96 | 3,269 | 3,235 | 1,141,600 | - 269,639 | 1,605,388 | - 7,237 | | Hot - rolled Coil | - | 3,484 | 1.40 | 3,495 | 3,454 | 488,547 | - 78,139 | 1,381,560 | 6,551 | | Iron Ore | - | 801.0 | 2.36 | 803.0 | 787.5 | 281,002 | 109,995 | 443,799 | 171,910 | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: The report presents the weekly changes and total inventory (including steel mills and social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the inventory of 45 ports of iron ore, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [16][18][21]. - **Steel Mill Production Situation**: The report shows the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [30][32][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply and demand pattern continued to weaken, the inventory growth rate expanded. Although the output of hot - rolled coils decreased due to the maintenance of plate mills, the sustainability of production reduction was questionable, and the positive effect of supply contraction was not strong. The demand for hot - rolled coils continued to weaken, and the weak demand put pressure on the price. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand increased. The production of rebar reached a high level this year, and demand improved, but the sustainability of the improvement was questionable. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils continued to weaken, but cost support existed. In the short term, the price will continue to oscillate higher, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [39]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply and demand pattern changed little. The consumption of steel mills decreased, but the profit situation was good, and the overall decline was not large. The supply of iron ore increased limitedly. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [39].

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 12 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色维持偏强震荡 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价小幅震荡上行，持仓量也小幅上升，主力期价站上 7.9 万关口。宏观层面，内外宏观氛围较好，有利于铜价上行。产业淡 季，库存小幅上升，9-10 月差持续走弱。宏观氛围较好的情况下， 铜价或维持强势运行。 沪铝 今日沪铝震荡上行，持仓量小幅上升，主力期价站上 2.07 万关 口。宏观层面，国内氛围回暖，利好铝价。产业层面，下游淡季，电 解铝持续累库。宏观利好，产业利空，铝价或偏强震荡。 有色金属 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 8 月 12 日 煤焦日报 利多因素主导，煤焦强势运行 核心观点 焦炭：8 月 12 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1812 元/吨，日内录得 4.50%的涨 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.68 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+4726 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1470 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1460 元/吨，周环比 上涨 2.82%。近期，焦炭供需基本持稳运行，不过成本端焦煤供应扰动仍 有反复，对焦炭期货形成一定支撑。另外，中美宣布将关税豁免期继续展 期 90 天，叠加金九银十临近，市场整体氛围仍偏乐观，驱动焦炭主力合 约偏强运行。 焦煤：8 月 12 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1313 点，日内上涨 6.97%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 71.89 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+28210 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1190.0 元/吨，周环比上涨 3.48%，折合期货仓单成本约 1167 元/吨。煤炭行业反内卷政策影响仍在 发酵，本周高频数据也显 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 原油 有望企稳 宝城期货 陈栋 在供应回升以及宏观情绪转弱的背景下，近期内外盘原油期货价格震荡走弱。其中，国内原油期货 2509 合约自 535 元/桶一线跌至 490 元/桶附近，累计下跌超 8%。 鉴于油价已经消化利空影响，预计后期油价或震荡企稳。 美联储降息预期升温 近期，宏观层面呈多空分歧局面。一方面，美国总统特朗普再度升级"关税战"，其要求对进口半导体 加征 100%关税。另一方面，美联储"鸽派"力量持续增强，今年 9 月美联储降息 25 个基点的概率上升至 91.5%。 基本面预期转弱 8 月初，OPEC+决定在 9 月增产 54.7 万桶/日。自 2025 年 4 月起，OPEC+的产量策略显著转向，从此 前的通过减产力挺油价转向增产以争夺市场份额。今年 4—8 月，OPEC+累计增产 191.9 万桶/日。在供应 压力持续增强的背景下，需求也面临季节性转弱的风险。 随着北半球夏季用油需求触及峰值，未来需求继续上升的空间有限。截至 8 月 1 日当周，美国炼厂开 工率为 96.9%，较前一周上升 1.5 个百分点，同比上升 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a relatively strong manner in the short - term and intraday, with a mid - term view of consolidation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Change**: On the night session of Monday, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures slightly rose 0.25% to 15760 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Situation**: With the weakening of previous macro - driving forces, the rubber market has returned to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also continuously releasing new rubber output, resulting in high supply pressure. However, the domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data for August are better than market expectations, showing a significant year - on - year increase. Driven by the improvement of demand factors, it is expected that the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend on Tuesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Change**: On the night session of Monday, the 2509 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures slightly declined 0.17% to 11720 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Situation**: With the weakening of previous macro - driving forces, synthetic rubber has returned to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and supply pressure remains. However, the domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data for August are better than market expectations, showing a significant year - on - year increase. Driven by the improvement of demand factors, it is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures may maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend on Tuesday [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report indicates that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with short - term and medium - term outlooks being "volatile", and the intraday view being "volatile and slightly stronger". It is predicted to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Tuesday [1][5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Time - cycle and View Summary - For the crude oil 2510 contract, the short - term view is "volatile", the medium - term view is "volatile", and the intraday view is "volatile and slightly stronger", with a reference view of "running strongly" [1]. 2. Core Logic Summary - There are multi - empty divergences at the macro level. Trump has escalated the tariff war by demanding a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors, while also arranging "dovish" officials in the Fed. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September is as high as 91.5%. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are increasing crude oil production, and supply pressure is rising. The demand side is in the peak season, with a good supply - demand structure, but there is a risk of a decline in demand due to seasonal factors. The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract slightly rose 0.33% to 491.7 yuan/barrel in the overnight session on Monday [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No content provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The AH premium has significantly declined due to factors such as the acceleration of southbound capital inflows, the increasing attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks' dividend - paying sectors, and the improvement of the Hong Kong stock market structure. It may converge in the long - term but cannot be completely eliminated [24]. - The short - term bond market lacks a clear main line, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield ranging between 1.6 - 1.8%. The short - end is benefited by loose liquidity, while the long - end is affected by the stock market and domestic demand policies. It is recommended to seize coupon opportunities of ordinary credit bonds, secondary perpetual bonds, and certificates of deposit [24]. - The margin trading balance has exceeded 2 trillion yuan again, reflecting the increasing market activity. The current A - share market has different characteristics from 2015, and the overall performance this year is expected to be better than that in 2013 [25]. - The short - term stock market may enter a consolidation period, and the focus may shift to style switching. For convertible bonds, it is recommended to reduce positions, take profits on high - priced varieties, and adjust the portfolio structure [25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - In Q2 2025, GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1]. - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, also lower than the previous month [1]. - In June 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.0%, 4.6%, and 8.3% respectively, showing different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - In July 2025, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports increased by 4.1% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The US will suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff on Chinese goods for another 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, while retaining a 10% tariff [2]. - Ant Group and China National Rare Earth Group have refuted the rumor of jointly building a rare - earth RMB stablecoin [2]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 85.9%, and the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 50 basis points in October is 55.1% [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - The suspension of lithium mine production by CATL has led to a full - board limit - up of lithium carbonate futures contracts, driving up the prices of domestic lithium carbonate spot and lithium mine stocks [4]. - The national standard for the transportation safety and multimodal transport of power lithium batteries will be implemented on February 1, 2026 [4]. - As of August 8, the inventories of various metals such as tin, zinc, and aluminum showed different changes [5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In June, the copper production of Escondida and Collahuasi mines in Chile decreased year - on - year [7]. - Codelco is gradually resuming the operation of its largest copper mine, El Teniente [7]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The refined oil price may experience the fourth suspension of adjustment this year due to the rise and then fall of international oil prices during the current pricing cycle [8]. - Chongqing has issued regulations on the development and construction of distributed photovoltaic power generation [9]. - India plans to launch a credit guarantee plan and has released $3.4 billion in oil rescue compensation [9]. - In June, Colombia's natural gas and oil production decreased year - on - year [9]. - UBS expects Brent crude oil prices to fall to $62 per barrel by the end of this year and rise to $65 per barrel by mid - 2026 [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Mexico has set a minimum export price for fresh tomatoes after the US imposed tariffs [11]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports in July increased by 3.82% compared to June [12]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On August 11, the central bank conducted 112 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 432.8 billion yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Key News - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration are soliciting public opinions on the implementation regulations of the VAT law [14]. - The central settlement company simplifies the investment process for overseas central bank - type institutions [14]. - The China Inter - bank Market Dealers Association strengthens the self - discipline management of underwriting quotes in the inter - bank bond market [15]. - The science and technology innovation bond market has expanded rapidly, and efforts are needed to improve the recognition of private enterprise science and technology innovation bonds [16]. - The debt risk of real estate enterprises is gradually being resolved, and the industry is moving towards a new stage [16]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - Yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose, and Treasury bond futures closed down [18]. - In the exchange bond market, some bonds of AVIC Industry - Finance Holdings Co., Ltd. and Treasury bonds rose, while some other bonds fell [18]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose, and the performance of individual convertible bonds varied [19]. - Money market rates showed different trends, and the yields of financial bonds and Treasury bonds in auctions were announced [20]. - European and US bond yields showed different trends [22]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, while the central parity rate was depreciated [23]. - The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [23]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - The AH premium has declined significantly, and it may converge in the long - term [24]. - The short - term bond market lacks a clear main line, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield ranges between 1.6 - 1.8% [24]. - The margin trading balance has exceeded 2 trillion yuan again, and the A - share market is more active [25]. - The short - term stock market may enter a consolidation period, and convertible bond investment strategies need adjustment [25]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The A - share market was operating at a high level, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising for six consecutive days. Most stocks rose, and the trading volume expanded [30]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose slightly, and the performance of different sectors varied [30]. - Many funds have suspended large - scale subscriptions due to the A - share market recovery [30]. - Four public funds have announced self - purchase plans for equity funds [31].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run in a relatively strong manner, showing a short - term, medium - term and intraday trend of stability with short - term and medium - term oscillations and intraday oscillations tending to be strong [1][5]. 3) Summary according to Relevant Catalogue Variety Morning Meeting Summary - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is oscillation tending to be strong, and the reference view is a relatively strong operation. The core logic is that there are differences between long and short positions, and methanol has stabilized in an oscillatory manner [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol has returned to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad remains high, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift. However, due to the rebound of domestic coal futures prices in the overnight session on Monday, which offsets the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol, the methanol futures 2601 contract showed an oscillatory consolidation trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.04% to 2478 yuan/ton. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillatory and stable trend on Tuesday [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 8 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面平稳，矿价偏强运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石基本面变化不大，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗走弱，但因钢厂利润状况较好，高频指标 维持相对高位，需求韧性尚可，给予矿价强支撑。与此同时，国内港口矿石到货有所回落，而海外矿 商发运延续弱稳运行态 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend. The recommended stance is to wait and see as the tariff expectation has been disproven, and the gold price is expected to continue to move sideways [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term view is an increase, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and strengthening trend. The recommended stance is to be bullish in the short - term as the domestic market atmosphere has warmed up, and the copper price has stabilized and rebounded [1][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: After New York gold hit a high and then fell back last Friday, it maintained a weak trend on Monday, dropping from $3450 to the $3400 level. Shanghai gold and London gold also declined [3]. - **Core Logic**: The market previously expected the US to impose a tax on gold, but President Trump stated that gold would not be taxed. The short - term New York gold is still within the sideways range since the second quarter, and with the tariff expectation disproven, it is expected to continue its sideways and weakening movement [3]. Copper - **Price and Position Movement**: Shanghai copper maintained a strong performance yesterday with a slight increase in open interest; it opened slightly lower at night and then moved sideways with a slight decrease in open interest [4]. - **Macro - level Factors**: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations have increased, and the US dollar index remains weak, which is beneficial for the copper price. The domestic market atmosphere has warmed up again [4]. - **Industry - level Factors**: On Monday, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 132,200 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from last Thursday. With positive domestic and overseas macro factors, the copper price may maintain its strong performance [4].